ESPN NFL

» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Panthers in 2012.

Dream scenario (11-5): With the Saints dealing with turmoil and the Falcons facing enormous pressure, it’s at least possible that the two teams that have dominated the NFC South in recent years won’t win it in 2012. The Panthers are the next logical choice, and there are all sorts of reasons for optimism.

Coach Ron Rivera’s entering his second season and so is quarterback Cam Newton, who was the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year despite not having an offseason with his coaches and their playbook. Newton should only continue to improve, a scary thought for a guy who lit up defenses with his arm and his legs last season. He has Steve Smith still going strong, a backfield that includes Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, and has added fullback/tailback Mike Tolbert.

There are far fewer questions about Carolina’s offense than there were a year ago. It’s obvious the Panthers are going to score some points on offense. But the defense will tell the story. If this team is going to make the playoffs, Jon Beason and Ron Edwards must make strong comebacks from injuries and rookie linebacker Luke Kuechly must make an instant impact.

Nightmare scenario (6-10): Anything less than last year’s 6-10 record would be a huge disappointment. Although I don’t think it’s likely, it’s at least possible that Newton will take a step back. If he does, then maybe Smith no longer looks so young and maybe that loaded backfield doesn’t look so good. Then there’s the matter of the defense that was so bad a year ago. A lot of people seem to assume the return of Beason and Edwards and the addition of Kuechly will solve everything. But maybe Beason and Edwards aren’t the players they were before their injuries, and maybe Kuechly doesn’t live up to his billing.

If all that happens, then the Panthers really aren’t going to be any different than they were the last couple of seasons.

When Cam Newton wasn't selected to be on the cover of "Madden 13," there seemed to be a huge sigh of relief from fans of the Carolina Panthers.

One potential crisis was avoided, but it seems like Carolina fans now are creating another. A lot of them seem to be worried about Newton following his offensive rookie of the year season with a “sophomore slump."

I have a tough time buying into that one. First off, Newton is incredibly talented. Second, he’ll have a full offseason with his coaches and the playbook, a luxury he didn’t have during last year’s lockout.

But let’s turn to someone who knows Newton a lot better than most. That’s Carolina coach Ron Rivera, who was asked in this interview about the possibility of Newton taking a step backward.

“I will say this about a sophomore slump: If there’s anybody that’s going work through it, he’s going to work through it,’’ Rivera said. “When the season was over, one of the things he said was he wanted to find a way to make sure he didn’t have one. I think the less we talk about it, the less we get caught up in it, the better. It’s like the Madden curse; he really wanted to be the cover. I think that’s the thing. Instead of running from it, saying, 'Oh, I hope it doesn’t happen -- it’s not going to happen.' I’m not going to let it happen. I think that’s his approach to the sophomore slump.’’

I think that’s an excellent approach. But Rivera was quick to point out that Newton can use some help from his teammates.

“I also think the guys around him have to continue to step up,’’ Rivera said. “Our running backs have to continue to go. I think the addition of [Mike] Tolbert gives us something extra because it’s now a fullback that’s a multitalented and versatile guy. Our tight end situation with Greg Olsen is solid. We have [Gary] Barnidge and Ben [Hartsock] sitting there -- guys that give us a different kind of look. And the continued development of our receiving corps. The young guys have got to step up, whether it’s David Gettis getting back to 100 percent, whether it’s Kealoha [Pilares] taking the next step, whether it’s Armanti [Edwards] stepping up, Darvin Adams stepping up, Joe Adams becoming a part of that.’’

Like I said, I only see Newton continuing to progress. But I’m not a big believer in curses, slumps or jinxes. But I could be wrong.

Let’s hear what you think. Cast your ballot in our accompanying SportsNation poll and use the comments section below to share your thoughts on if Newton will have a sophomore slump.

There was a time -- like pretty much the last 50 years -- when a Heisman Trophy wasn’t a very good thing for a quarterback to have on his résumé as he entered the NFL.

When Baylor’s Robert Griffin III gets taken early in next week’s NFL draft, he could be the latest piece in the trend of turning around the apparent curse on quarterbacks who won the Heisman. It has started to change only recently, but all of the sudden it’s looking like the trophy isn’t an anchor guaranteeing NFL mediocrity or obscurity for a quarterback.

Look back at 2010 winner Cam Newton. He was last year’s offensive rookie of the year for the Carolina Panthers and set all sorts of rookie passing (and rushing) records. There’s big hope in St. Louis that 2008 winner Sam Bradford can get back to the promise he showed as a rookie after struggling through a rough 2010 season. Then there’s 2007 winner Tim Tebow. He couldn’t throw spirals in Denver, but he won games. That at least created a market for Tebow to get traded to the New York Jets, where it remains to be seen if he’ll ever be able to win the starting job away from Mark Sanchez.

But there’s at least hope that Griffin, Newton, Bradford and Tebow can go on to have long and prosperous NFL careers. Before they came along, there were decades of evidence that suggested quarterbacks should just quit the game after winning the Heisman.

Remember Troy Smith, Eric Crouch, Danny Wuerffel, Charlie Ward and Gino Torretta? How about Ty Detmer, Andre Ware or Pat Sullivan?

They had little to no success in the NFL.

And remember Jason White?

I honestly did not at first. I had to go back and look up White, who won the trophy not all that long ago. He won it in 2003 while putting up some gaudy numbers at the University of Oklahoma. White didn’t even get drafted and quit football altogether after a short training-camp stint with the Tennessee Titans. He never even played in a regular-season NFL game.

Guys like White, Smith, Crouch, Wuerffel, Ward, Torretta, Detmer, Ware and Sullivan all had some things in common. In general, they were able to win the Heisman because they put up big statistics at programs where they were surrounded by elite players. They also had limitations -- usually in size, speed or arm strength -- that prevented them from being taken very seriously by NFL talent evaluators.

But those same evaluators also missed on some Heisman winners who seemed to have what the NFL wanted. Remember Matt Leinart?

He came from one of those football factories (USC), where he was surrounded by guys like Reggie Bush, but Leinart was supposed to be the one whose college success could transfer to the NFL. That’s why the Arizona Cardinals drafted him in the first round. But Leinart was nothing short of a tremendous disappointment.

When he flopped, it looked like there really was something to the Heisman Curse.

Prior to Tebow, Bradford, Newton and Griffin, you’ve got to look at a list of 18 quarterbacks who won the Heisman before you find one who really made it big. You’ve got to go all the way back to Roger Staubach, who won it for Navy in 1963. He went on to have a great career for the Dallas Cowboys and earned a spot in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Since Staubach won the Heisman, other quarterbacks have had to settle for just getting into the College Football Hall of Fame.

Sure, there have been a few Heisman winners to come out and have some success. Jim Plunkett won two Super Bowls, but his career didn’t really take off until he landed with the Raiders after mediocre stints in New England and San Francisco.

Vinny Testaverde had an extremely long NFL career and the longevity led to some impressive career statistics. But Testaverde never had the kind of career so many people imagined when he was coming out of the University of Miami and taken No. 1 overall by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 1987.

Guys like Steve Spurrier and Doug Flutie bounced around and had some success. Then there’s Carson Palmer, who has had some bright moments, but still is trying to fully live up to the Heisman hype.

But Newton, Griffin, Tebow and Bradford finally might be able to put a stop to the near-half-decade drought of Heisman Trophy winners truly excelling in the NFL.

“Cam Newton is the best thing to ever happen to Robert Griffin III,’’ former NFL quarterback Chris Weinke said as we discussed this year’s crop of quarterbacks back in February. “Just like Drew Brees is the best thing to happen to [Wisconsin draft prospect Russell Wilson]. Cam showed that a big, athletic quarterback that can run can be great in the NFL. Brees showed that a guy that’s not 6-foot-4 or 6-foot-5 can throw for 5,000 yards in an NFL season. We all know the NFL is a copycat league. Cam’s success and Drew’s success helps the draft stock of guys like Robert and Russell.’’

Ironically, Weinke’s name is another one on that Heisman list. His story might be the most unique of all the Heisman-winning quarterbacks. Weinke enrolled at Florida State after giving up a minor-league baseball career. He won the Heisman in 2000 and seemed to have the talent of a classic drop-back passer, but the fact he would turn 29 in his rookie training camp, pushed him into the fourth round of the 2001 draft. The Carolina Panthers took him and he started under coach George Seifert as a rookie, but never could quite won over John Fox, who took over the next year.

Weinke spent the next five seasons as a backup in Carolina and finished his career in 2007 with San Francisco.

These days, Weinke has carved a niche as a quarterback guru. He is the director of football operations at IMG Academies in Bradenton, Fla. He has worked extensively with Newton and some other quarterback prospects over the past few years.

Weinke says he’s seen the game change just since his playing days ended. Like just about everyone else, he says the NFL has become more driven by quarterbacks. He says natural talent is a prerequisite for NFL success and he points to guys like Newton and Griffin, saying they could be a new prototype. And he goes back to his point about the NFL being a copycat league.

“People are always looking for what works,’’ Weinke said. “Cam obviously had a fantastic rookie season. So people look at Robert and say he can do the same thing because the skill sets are similar.’’

For Griffin, Newton and Bradford -- and perhaps even Tebow in his own way -- maybe the skill sets are so good that it no longer matters if a quarterback is lugging around a Heisman Trophy.

Let's take a look at some of the top headlines from around the division.

The Falcons are without a first-round draft pick. That means you can expect plenty of criticism of last year’s trade to move up and get receiver Julio Jones between now and the draft. It’s understandable, as the Falcons are sitting there with needs on the offensive and defensive lines, and needs for depth in other areas. But I can’t say the trade to get Jones was a mistake. He showed plenty of promise in his rookie season, and could end up being one of the league’s top receivers. No doubt the cost was high, but it’s too early in Jones’ career to say the Falcons gave up too much to get him.

Carolina quarterback Cam Newton has said he expects major improvement over a debut season in which he won Offensive Rookie of the Year. Head over to SportsNation to vote on how much you think Newton will improve.

Jordan Gross’ high school in Idaho will get some new weight-room equipment, courtesy of the Carolina offensive tackle.

Here’s a list of five first-round draft prospects for the Panthers. I’d add Mississippi State defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and Boston college linebacker Luke Kuechly to that list. I’d also scratch Stanford guard David DeCastro from that list. He’s a great prospect, but I can’t see the Panthers using a top-10 pick on a guard.

There’s been wide-spread speculation that middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma will face a suspension when the NFL hands out player punishments for the Saints’ bounty program. Although the league has said anywhere from 22 to 27 players were involved in a three-season span, there hasn’t been much speculation about which other players could face suspensions. Until now. Safety Roman Harper and defensive end Will Smith are mentioned as possible candidates in this report.

Jeff Schultz takes New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees to task for not acknowledging the existence of a bounty program.

After going through the first day of the offseason program, New Orleans cornerback Jabari Greer talked about the strength of the Saints’ locker room, and how that should help the team with the adversity it faces in the aftermath of the bounty program. He's got a point. Although it was clear there was some friction between coach Sean Payton and former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, the chemistry among the New Orleans players has always been a big positive in recent years.

The Saints have re-signed special-teams player/receiver Courtney Roby. They also released linebacker Jeremiha Hunter.

Gary Shelton runs through the argument that is consuming Tampa Bay fans -- should the Bucs take LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne or Alabama running back Trent Richardson with the No. 5 overall pick? It’s a tough call, and I don’t think the Bucs would be making a huge mistake by going either way. I lean slightly toward Claiborne, because the trending wisdom in the NFL is that you don’t draft a running back early in the first round. Then again, the way coach Greg Schiano has been talking, his offensive system might make running back a more important position than it is for most other teams.

The announcement of the NFL’s penalties for the New Orleans Saints bounty program contained one item that involves another NFC South team.

The league specifically mentions four players who were targeted with bounties. They were Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton. Favre and Warner are retired, and Rodgers plays in the NFC North.

But Newton plays for the Carolina Panthers. Apparently, the bounty on Newton came in last season’s regular-season finale, when Newton left the game and backup Derek Anderson made one of his two appearances last season.

I’m pretty sure that mention of Newton in the NFL’s report caught some eyes in Carolina. Keep in mind, the Panthers used the No. 1 overall pick in last year’s draft on Newton. He won the offensive rookie of the year award and is viewed as the franchise quarterback.

The fact he was being targeted for injury by an opponent isn’t going to sit too well with Carolina’s players. They’re not going to forget that.

This is going to add some intensity to the rivalry between the Panthers and Saints.

Offseason programs don’t start until April this year. That’s a change from years past when the programs started in March and a huge change from last year when the lockout prevented all offseason work.

But one significant NFC South player already is back to work. That’s Carolina quarterback Cam Newton.

He recently spent some time working out under the guidance of Chris Weinke, the director of football operations at IMG Football Academy in Bradenton, Fla. Newton’s recent visit was confirmed by an IMG spokesperson, who said the quarterback has said he will be back for more workouts with Weinke soon.

That’s significant. Weinke, a former Carolina quarterback, worked out with Newton a large part of last offseason. Newton received a playbook when the lockout briefly was lifted and he and Weinke spent about two months going over it. Carolina officials have said there’s no doubt Weinke played a significant role in Newton winning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. In April, Newton can begin his first true offseason program with Carolina’s coaching staff.

Newton also will be back in Bradenton in late June. His foundation will run the Cam Newton Skills Challenge at the IMG Madden 7-on-7 National Championships from June 29 through July 1. The event is open to high school teams and club teams. For information or to register, click here.

If you haven’t seen it yet, you need to go over here to watch Cam Newton's new television commercial.

It’s called “Cam’s Night Out’’ and it features the Carolina quarterback working out in Under Armour gear in Bank of America Stadium. The commercial was filmed several weeks ago.

The release of the advertisement is scheduled for Wednesday to coincide with the start of the NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis, where potential draft picks will be gathering.

Newton was the first overall pick in last year’s draft and earned Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.

Carolina rookie quarterback Cam Newton has been getting a lot of air time the past few weeks.

He’s about to get more. Newton was at the ESPN offices in Bristol, Conn., on Thursday to film a “This is SportsCenter" commercial. This comes less than a week after Newton was named the Offensive Rookie of the Year.

You can check out a picture of Newton in Bristol by clicking here.

I don’t think this will come as a surprise to anyone, but Carolina quarterback Cam Newton has been named the Offensive Rookie of the Year by the Associated Press.

The real surprise would have been if Newton had not won the award. But that didn’t even come close to happening. Newton received 47 of the 50 votes. Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton received the other three votes.

In many other years, Dalton’s season would have been enough to earn him the honor. But Newton had no ordinary season.

Although the Panthers only won six games, you could make the argument Newton had the best rookie season ever by a quarterback. He set a new rookie record for passing yards and became the first player in NFL history to throw for 4,000 yards and rush for 500 yards in the same season. Newton also set an NFL record for rushing touchdowns (14) by a quarterback.

Despite the losing record, Newton brought hope to a franchise that had been very down. Carolina went 2-14 in 2010 and coach John Fox wasn’t retained. He was replaced by Ron Rivera, who joined with general manager Marty Hurney in making what many viewed as a risky decision to use the first overall draft pick on Newton.

A lot of skeptics wondered if Newton would be able to run an NFL offense after running what those same skeptics said was a very simple offense at Auburn. Although the lockout prevented Newton from working with coaches until the start of training camp, it didn’t take him long to grasp the offense.

He earned the starting job in training camp and opened his career in spectacular fashion, passing for more than 400 yards in each of his first two games.

Although Carolina’s defense was decimated by injuries, Newton and the offense continued to improve as the season went on.

During the season, Newton talked frequently about how the losing bothered him. If Carolina can just improve its defense a bit, Newton’s not going to have to endure many more losing seasons.

It should be a quiet morning, followed by a busy late afternoon and evening around these parts.

That’s because we’ve got a couple of major events coming later Saturday. Late this afternoon, we’ll find out who has been selected to the Class of 2012 for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Former New Orleans offensive tackle Willie Roaf appears to have a good chance to get in. If he does, I’ll be back with full analysis.

In a new twist, the NFL’s major awards will be announced Saturday night. I’m expecting Carolina quarterback Cam Newton to be named Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Most Valuable Player also will be announced. New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees may be a long shot because Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers appears to be the favorite.

As soon as the awards are announced, I’ll be back with analysis.

Twelve games into his rookie season, Cam Newton has made us all forget he is not the quarterback the Carolina Panthers wanted almost a year ago.

In the news conference to officially announce the departure of coach John Fox, team owner Jerry Richardson, without naming names, made reference to Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck. The Panthers held the first overall pick in the draft and Richardson’s public statements made it clear the Panthers would go that route. Privately, team officials confirmed there was no doubt Luck was the guy -- as long as he decided to enter the draft.

In the early days of last January, the Panthers didn’t even know who their coach would be, but they already had Luck penciled in as their quarterback. Nearly a year later, Luck’s decision to stay in college is looking like it was a huge break for the Panthers.

Newton is a strong candidate for offensive rookie of the year. He threw for more than 400 yards in his first two games, already has more rushing touchdowns (13) than any quarterback in a season in NFL history and has brought life and hope to a franchise that had none.

"Honestly, is he exceeding our [expectations]?" said Ron Rivera, who ended up as Carolina’s coach shortly after Luck announced he was staying at Stanford. "Absolutely. We always felt the young man had something special about him. Just for it to start showing and going the way it has been has been tremendous."

Newton has exceeded all expectations, in part because expectations weren’t all that high. Although he was winning a Heisman Trophy and a national title at Auburn, he wasn’t viewed as a sure thing.

That’s why, once Luck said he wasn’t entering the draft, the world assumed the Panthers wouldn’t take a quarterback. It made sense because, over the past decade, the Panthers had built a well-deserved reputation as one of the NFL’s most conservative franchises. They simply didn’t take big gambles.

With Luck out of the picture, the common assumption was the Panthers would go the safe route and go with defense. Names like Nick Fairley, Da'Quan Bowers (before word spread about the condition of his knee) and Patrick Peterson were kicked around.

The Panthers looked hard at all those names. But, as February and March rolled around, I started hearing indications the Panthers were taking a long look at Newton. At first, I didn’t really believe that -- or at least I didn’t believe that, when push came to shove, they’d go through with it. Taking a big leap just seemed so out of character for the Panthers.

In late March, I talked with several Carolina officials at the NFL owners meeting. They confirmed what the rest of the world was refusing to believe. They were confirming that they were giving very serious consideration to taking Newton, even leaning in his direction.

That’s when I turned around and wrote this column, saying the Panthers needed to use the No. 1 overall pick on Newton. The logic I used was the logic the Panthers were using. First, they had come to realize the NFL had become a quarterback-driven league and they might only get one shot at a guy with the potential to be a franchise quarterback. Second, the more homework they did on Newton, the more they believed the knocks on him were unfounded.

Critics were saying Newton didn’t have a desire to be great and that he had played in a college offense that was so simple it would be hard for him to pick up an NFL system.

"I think the thing that a lot of people really kind of miss out on as far as Cam is concerned is his commitment to being a great player in this league," Rivera said. "The young man really does do the things that you would expect of a No. 1 pick [and] what you would expect of a leader. He is committed to the game [and] he is committed to this football team."

The Panthers also spent lots of time talking to Newton’s coaches and teammates at Auburn. They had offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski and quarterbacks coach Mike Shula sit down with Newton for a lengthy film-room session. Chudzinski and Shula came back and told Marty Hurney and Rivera they had no doubt Newton could run their offense.

“I don’t think people really gave him enough credit for what they did or give them enough credit for what they do at Auburn,’’ Rivera said. “People always thought he was in a one-read offense. We went through the process learning about him and we came to learn that it really is not a one-read offense. There was a little bit more that he had to do as a football player.’’

That’s why the Panthers took the plunge on Newton. That’s why they’re not looking back regretfully at Luck’s decision. They’ve got their franchise quarterback.

Just about two weeks ago, I wrote a column on how I see Carolina quarterback Cam Newton as a slam-dunk winner for offensive rookie of the year.

While giving due respect to Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton and Dallas running back DeMarco Murray, I said Newton will win easily. I said Newton had the award won two weeks into the season and my thinking hasn’t changed a bit.

But the debate, minus Murray, has surfaced again. In their latest edition of Hot Button, Ashley Fox and John Clayton debate whether Dalton or Newton should be the offensive rookie of the year. Fox takes Dalton’s side and Clayton sides with Newton.

Taking it one step further in this Insider post, KC Joyner really digs into the metrics and says Dalton should win.

I have great respect for the work of Fox and Joyner and consider them both to be friends. Besides that, we’re not allowed to criticize other media here. So let’s just say I’m siding with Clayton, a friend, a mentor and a truly great mind.

Thursday’s going to be a very big day in NFC South land. Sure, the Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers each will play their final preseason game.

But final preseason games are even more meaningless than other preseason games. What I’m talking about is much bigger than preseason games.

I’m talking about our predictions for the season. ESPN.com will be rolling out predictions from the entire NFL staff of writers. I’ll be giving my take on where each NFC South team will finish and I think you’ll see that some of my predictions are contrary to what you’ve seen from most media outlet predictions.

Part of it is because I like to be different and part of it is because it’s what I feel in my gut. Most of you know I generally avoid predictions, but this is the one time of year I do them. I can’t reveal them here. But, like I said, I think you’re going to see some surprises.

I’ll also be picking winners for all the other divisions and teams that I think will earn wild-card berths. I’ll also be picking a Super Bowl winner -- and that may or may not be an NFC South team.

Well also be predicting a Coach of the Year, Most Valuable Player and Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year. You just might see some NFC South representation in those categories.

Posted by ESPN.com's Pat Yasinskas

Ryan

This should come as absolutely no surprise. Atlanta's Matt Ryan has been selected as the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year by the Associated Press.

Ryan, who started all season, threw for 3,440 yards and 16 touchdowns while leading the Falcons to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth. I get a lot of questions about awards and there are a lot of them out there, but this is the important one.

In many contracts, there are incentives for certain awards, but the language usually is very limited and specific. The Associated Press awards are usually the ones teams use when they include incentives.