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New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael isn’t known for being a great quote. He comes across as shy and quiet in interviews.

But Carmichael is one of those guys you need to listen to when he does have something to say because his thoughts usually carry some weight.

Carmichael and assistant head coach Joe Vitt met with the New Orleans media to discuss Wisconsin wide receiver Nick Toon, who the Saints drafted in the fourth round. Carmichael was asked if Toon compares to any other receiver he’s ever worked with.

“His range and his hands remind me more of [Marques] Colston,’’ Carmichael said. “He runs better than I think people give him credit for. He was timed real well at the combine. I think that speed shows up on film.”

Any comparison to Colston is pretty high praise for a receiver coming into New Orleans’ offense. Since arriving in New Orleans as a seventh-round pick in 2006, Colston has been Drew Brees’ favorite and most-productive target.

Toon had some medical issues in his college career, but Vitt said that’s not a concern.

“Our doctors passed him on his physical,’’ Vitt said. “I believe he missed only one game his senior year, the Indiana game, where he probably could have played in the game. I think he’s going to have to work through some issues in the National Football League, but they all do. Robert Meachem missed his whole first year. We have good medical grades on him. We like his production with over 60 catches.’’

If Toon turns out to be anything close to what Colston has been, the Saints just helped themselves.

We already showed you my assessment of how the NFC South teams have fared so far in free agency.

Now, let’s turn to another view. Check out this Insider post by Matt Williamson, who grades how every team has done in free agency. Overall, Williamson gave out pretty good grades to the NFC South teams.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers got an A-. They signed receiver Vincent Jackson, guard Carl Nicks and cornerback Eric Wright. Williamson slightly questions giving Wright so much money and says he wishes the Bucs had added a veteran leader or two. But those are about the only knocks anyone can come up with on what Tampa Bay has done.

Williamson gives the Saints a B, which I think is about right. They lost Nicks, receiver Robert Meachem and cornerback Tracy Porter. But I think they were expecting to lose all three after putting the franchise tag on quarterback Drew Brees and re-signing Marques Colston. Given the fact that he had almost no salary-cap room to work with, general manager Mickey Loomis did a pretty remarkable job in signing guard Ben Grubbs, linebacker Curtis Lofton and defensive tackle Brodrick Bunkley.

The Falcons graded out at a C+. That may seem a little high to fans who are angry that the Falcons really didn’t bring anything from outside. But Williamson is generous with his grade because he recognizes the importance of keeping your own players. The Falcons did a nice job of that. The only thing they really lost was Lofton. That is a loss, but the Falcons only wanted him back at the right price and they stayed behind the line they drew in the sand.

The only team that got a bad grade was the Carolina Panthers. They got a D, which tied them (with Arizona) for the lowest grade in the league. I think this one might be a little harsh. Yeah, I realize the Panthers didn’t do much in free agency. But the bright side is, they really didn’t lose anything. The signing of running back/fullback Mike Tolbert was a bit curious because Carolina already was loaded in the backfield. But I think we could end up seeing Jonathan Stewart or DeAngelo Williams getting traded. Even if the Panthers keep all their running backs, that’s not a bad thing. They don’t run the ball as much as they did back in the John Fox days. But look at how New Orleans, a pass-happy team, was able to work in four quality running backs last season.

The third day of free agency is starting off much more quietly in the NFC South than the first two. Let’s see if it stays that way and let’s kick it off by taking a look at the latest headlines around the division.

It took quite a bit of time, but the New Orleans Saints finally have found a replacement for Curtis Johnson, who left to become the head coach at Tulane. He’ll be replaced by Henry Ellard, who played for the Redskins and Rams and has spent the past three seasons coaching receivers for the Jets.

Jeff Duncan writes that the Saints’ offense won’t get any worse after the loss of guard Carl Nicks and receiver Robert Meachem. I’ll go ahead and agree with that, but I’ll also say I don’t think the offense will get any better. Then again, there’s not a lot of room for improvement.

D. Orlando Ledbetter reports the Falcons still are interested in defensive end Kendall Langford, who has visited with the Bengals. I’m still convinced the Falcons will add a pass-rusher somewhere in free agency. And probably a left tackle, too.

Baltimore free-agent safety Haruki Nakamura will visit the Carolina Panthers. Don’t get too excited. Nakamura has been a career backup and special-teams player.

We already told you linebacker David Hawthorne will be visiting the Saints. But the team also is showing interest in Denver linebacker Joe Mays.

The second day of free agency is already shaping up to be just as busy as the first across the NFC South.

As we’ve mentioned several times, New Orleans guard Carl Nicks is meeting with the Buccaneers on Wednesday morning. I’d look for the Bucs to make an offer to make Nicks the highest-paid guard in the NFL (somewhere over $8 million a season). That could make their offensive line a strength and weaken the Saints.

Carolina linebacker Dan Connor has a visit scheduled with the Dallas Cowboys. Connor is looking for a starting job and won’t get that opportunity in Carolina, where Jon Beason is returning from injury.

The Panthers will have guard Jason Brown in for a visit Wednesday. Brown is from Hendersonville, N.C., and played at the University of North Carolina. He has played for the Ravens and Rams. He also played some center earlier in his career, but has moved to guard. The Panthers released veteran Travelle Wharton on Tuesday, while re-signing Geoff Hangartner. They also have Garry Williams returning from an injury. If Brown is signed, he could end up competing with Hangartner for a starting job.

Former New Orleans receiver Robert Meachem didn’t last long on the free-agent market. He’s going to San Diego, where he’ll try to help replace Vincent Jackson, who is joining the Buccaneers. Meachem had a quick flirtation with Buffalo, but the Chargers jumped in and grabbed him with a four-year deal worth $26 million. The Saints liked Meachem, but their salary-cap situation limited them and, once they re-signed Marques Colston, it was obvious Meachem would not return.

It appears the Falcons are letting middle linebacker Curtis Lofton and defensive end John Abraham test free agency. But early indications are that neither player has received any big-money offers so far. I think the Falcons have a plan in place to proceed without Lofton and Abraham, but I also think there’s an outside chance either one could return if the price is right.

If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers really are going to go after free-agent receiver Vincent Jackson, they just lost a competitor.

ESPN’s John Clayton reports that the Chicago Bears have worked a trade with Miami for receiver Brandon Marshall. That apparently takes the Bears out of the market for Jackson. Entering free agency, the Washington Redskins, Bears and Bucs had been the teams most tied by speculation to Jackson.

Clayton also has some news on another receiver. That’s New Orleans’ Robert Meachem. He’s on his way to Buffalo. After re-signing Marques Colston, the Saints are unlikely to bring back Meachem, who also could be a potential target for the Bucs.

With Monday night’s news that wide receiver Randy Moss is going to the San Francisco 49ers, it appears as if the New Orleans Saints are turning back to Plan A.

That’s Marques Colston, who has been the No. 1 receiver since he arrived in 2006. Colston can become a free agent Tuesday afternoon, but there are reports Monday night that he and the Saints are trying to hammer out a deal.

If that happens, it’s good news for the Saints. Colston and quarterback Drew Brees have a strong chemistry and Colston is a respected figure in a locker room that likely will see a lot of change this offseason.

The downside to re-signing Colston, however, is that it probably will diminish the chances of the Saints re-signing guard Carl Nicks. The Saints are tight against the salary cap and a deal for Colston probably means there won’t be enough room to keep Nicks.

The Saints recently had Moss in for a workout, but that likely was Plan B, and Moss only would have been signed if the Saints lost Colston and Robert Meachem.

The New Orleans Saints, who are on the verge of having some key free agents leave, just made a minor signing to keep one of their own players.

The team announced it has agreed to terms with quarterback Chase Daniel on a one-year contract.

“Ever since Chase joined our team in 2009, he’s continued to work hard and progress on the practice field, in the meeting room and in the weight room,” general manager Mickey Loomis said. “His work ethic has served him well as he’s continued his development for us at the quarterback position.”

Daniel has served as the primary backup to Drew Brees, which means he hasn’t received much playing time. In the past two seasons, Daniel has completed six of eight passes for 45 yards and posted an 88.0 NFL passer rating. Daniel also has handled holding duties on field goals and extra points.

The Saints have several bigger names that can become free agents if they're not re-signed by Tuesday afternoon, including receiver Marques Colston, guard Carl Nicks, cornerback Tracy Porter and receiver Robert Meachem.

Just about everywhere you look or listen there is speculation the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be in hot pursuit of wide receiver Vincent Jackson.

It makes sense on many levels, starting with the facts that the Bucs need a true No. 1 receiver and Jackson probably is the best available in free agency. There’s likely to be competition from Chicago and Washington and perhaps some other teams. The San Diego Chargers are also holding out a bit of hope that they can re-sign Jackson.

But the Chargers will only do that if his price tag is somewhere around $11 million a season. If it gets higher than that, he likely will walk and Tampa Bay’s a very logical place for one of the top members of this free-agent class.

The Bucs have about $43 million in salary-cap space and it’s become increasingly clear the Bucs want to do everything possible to put quarterback Josh Freeman in position to succeed. Jackson certainly would help in that regard.

At 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds, Jackson may not sound like the deep threat so many think the Bucs need. But Jackson is a bit of a freak of nature when it comes to his speed, plus he uses his strength to get separation.

Just look at his numbers when it comes to yards per catch. Last season, Jackson averaged 18.4 yards per catch. That’s the second-highest total of his career and the highest (19.7) came in his rookie season when he was used as a third receiver.

That shows Jackson isn’t losing a step, which is a concern for a receiver who just turned 29. It looks like Jackson has several good years left and the Bucs shouldn’t let their infamous history of bringing in receivers scare them off. Jackson’s not Alvin Harper or Bert Emanuel, guys that were No. 2 receivers elsewhere that the Bucs thought could emerge as No. 1 guys. Jackson also isn’t Keyshawn Johnson, Joey Galloway or Antonio Bryant, guys who produced in the short term, but, for various reasons, didn’t last in the long term.

Jackson is a proven No. 1 receiver. Although he had some off-field problems, those appear to be behind him and teammates and media members who have covered him say Jackson doesn’t have the “diva’’ personality so many receivers do. He’s described as very quiet and always has been liked by his coaches.

If the Bucs are going to get Jackson, it likely will cost them around $12-$13 million a year. That’s a lot, but the Bucs have indicated they’re ready to spend money after going lightly in free agency in recent years.

Jackson is the one guy out there that seems like a sure thing. Pittsburgh’s Mike Wallace is a restricted free agent and I don’t think the Bucs are looking to give up draft picks. New Orleans Marques Colston isn’t a speed guy and he’s been banged up at times in the past.

If the Bucs don’t get Jackson, then they need to look in a different direction.

Robert Meachem (Saints), Mario Manningham (Giants) and Laurent Robinson (Cowboys) are guys that can stretch the field, but none of them is a true No. 1 receiver, although they'd come at a much lower price tag than Jackson. But even adding a speed guy could make it easier for Tampa Bay’s current group of receivers – Mike Williams, Arrelious Benn, Dezmon Briscoe, Preston Parker and Sammie Stroughter — to get open.

Take a look at this Insider piece by Gary Horton. He lists the six teams that face the most danger in free agency.

At the very top of the list, he has the New Orleans Saints. This kind of goes along with the column I wrote recently on how the salary-cap implications for quarterback Drew Brees could end up gutting the Saints as we know them.

Horton points out the Saints are running the very real risk of losing free agents Carl Nicks, Marques Colston, Tracy Porter, Robert Meachem and some other role players. As we count down to Tuesday afternoon’s start of free agency, the Saints have a little over $5 million in salary cap room.

I expect that number could grow higher between now and Tuesday afternoon because the Saints are likely to release some players and could restructure more contracts.

But I’m thinking Porter and Meachem will walk. The Saints likely will use whatever salary-cap room they can scrape up to try to keep Nicks and Colston.

It still might be impossible to keep both of them. I think Nicks is the first priority on their list, but they’ve let him get this close to free agency and he’s been making noise that he thinks he’s gone. Even if the Saints make a late offer to Nicks, it seems likely he at least would want to see what’s available on the free-agent market. He’s the best guard in the league and it’s likely some teams with less cap issues than the Saints would like to make a run at him.

» AFC Free-Agency Primer: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Free agency begins Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET

Atlanta Falcons

Key free agents: CB Brent Grimes (franchise tag), LB Curtis Lofton, DE John Abraham, WR Harry Douglas and C Todd McClure.

Where they stand: The Falcons put the franchise tag on Grimes but would like to sign him to a long-term contract. That would improve a salary-cap situation that’s already decent. Keeping Lofton and Douglas, who have been developed by the current coaching staff, is also likely to be a priority. Although Abraham led the team with 9.5 sacks last season, his age and salary expectations work against the possibility of his return. Unless Abraham’s price tag drops significantly, the Falcons seem likely to let him walk. McClure could opt to retire. But if he wants to play, it’s likely the Falcons would welcome him back.

What to expect: After a quick and embarrassing exit from the postseason, owner Arthur Blank made it very clear that simply making the playoffs isn’t good enough. Blank expects to contend for a Super Bowl title. The Falcons went all in last year when they traded up to draft receiver Julio Jones and paid big money to free-agent defensive end Ray Edwards. Look for them to take a similar approach this year. The Falcons are usually good for at least one major move an offseason, and this year we could see two or three. Don’t be surprised if the Falcons go hard after Houston linebacker Mario Williams because they need a pass-rusher to replace Abraham. Without a first-round pick, the Falcons also probably will use free agency to fill a big need at left tackle. There aren’t a lot of options, but tackle Marcus McNeill could be a target if he is released, as expected, by the Chargers. The Falcons could even make a play for New Orleans guard Carl Nicks. His presence would make life easier for any left tackle, and pulling him away from the Saints also would weaken a division rival.

Carolina Panthers

Key free agents: TE Jeremy Shockey, LB Dan Connor, G Geoff Hangartner, LB/DL Antwan Applewhite and QB Derek Anderson.

Where they stand: The Panthers seem to be uncertain whether Shockey plans to retire or keep playing. If he wants to play, they’d gladly take him back because he’s a nice complement to Greg Olsen. They also are likely to make a strong attempt to keep Hangartner, who did a nice job after Carolina had several guards injured last preseason. It’s similar with Applewhite, who was signed during the season and made nice contributions. But the Panthers seem prepared to let Connor test free agency because they can’t promise him playing time with Jon Beason returning from injury as the starting middle linebacker. Anderson could return, but the Panthers likely will at least explore the possibility of looking for an upgrade as Cam Newton’s backup.

What to expect: Don’t expect a lot. The Panthers had their big splurge coming out of the lockout last summer, and they’re paying the tab for that now. They will have to release players and restructure contracts just to get below the cap before free agency starts. Linebacker Thomas Davis, who is coming off his third torn ACL, is a prime candidate for release or restructure. Although the team clearly wants to improve its defense, don’t look for any major moves in free agency. The team simply doesn’t have the cap room to make any big deals. The team might sign a midlevel free agent or two, but major upgrades will have to come through the draft.

New Orleans Saints

Key free agents: QB Drew Brees (franchise tag), G Carl Nicks, WR Marques Colston, CB Tracy Porter and WR Robert Meachem.

Where they stand: The past three years have been the most peaceful and prosperous in franchise history. But the peaceful part already has ended this offseason. In addition to getting into trouble with the NFL for a bounty program, the Saints are dealing with contract issues that are beyond challenging. They used the franchise tag on Brees and that’s going to cost them around $15 million. Even if they do reach a long-term agreement with Brees, his cap figure for this year could climb above $15 million. Either way, the Saints are going to have major cap issues. They’ve already restructured the contract of defensive end Will Smith and may do the same with linebacker Jonathan Vilma or perhaps even release him and some veterans. The Saints are going to have so much cap space tied up in Brees that they’ll have a hard time keeping their other free agents. Nicks would seem to be the priority with Colston close behind. But keeping even one of them would be a victory for the Saints.

What to expect: General manager Mickey Loomis always has been aggressive and daring, and he might have to be even more creative than usual because of the cap situation. The Saints simply aren’t the type of team to sit still. They had flaws exposed in a playoff loss to San Francisco, and they’re asking new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to fix their defense. The problem there is a lot of the current personnel doesn’t fit all that well in Spagnuolo’s scheme. Loomis needs to find a way to get at least one more pass-rusher up front and needs to add an athletic linebacker or two. He also may have to fill more needs if the Saints lose as many free agents as most expect. This team lacks a first-round pick in the draft, so Loomis will have to make some big moves when it comes to releasing players or restructuring contracts just to give the Saints a shot at being a little bit active in free agency.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Key free agents: K Connor Barth (franchise tag), CB Ronde Barber, RB Earnest Graham, LB Geno Hayes, S Sean Jones, DE Michael Bennett (restricted) and RB LeGarrette Blount (exclusive rights).

Where they stand: The Bucs begin coach Greg Schiano’s tenure in a unique situation. They’ve got a ton of cap room and need improvement in lots of areas. But they’ll deal with what they have between now and the start of free agency. A decision on Barber probably will come very soon. Schiano has indicated he’d like the veteran back, but Barber could choose to retire, which also would create a major need at cornerback. That position also could be an issue later in March when starting cornerback Aqib Talib is scheduled for trial on an assault charge. Talib could go to prison or face a suspension from the NFL, but his fate will be unknown at the start of free agency. Hayes didn’t have a great season last year, but he has upside, and the new staff might want to keep him. The Bucs are likely to let Graham walk because of his age. A return by Jones is possible at a reasonable salary, but the Bucs still need to look to upgrade at safety.

What to expect: The exact amount will depend on how many of their free agents are brought back, but the Bucs are likely to have somewhere around $50 million in cap space at the start of free agency and that will put them near the top of the league. After barely dipping into free agency last year, the Bucs were able to carry over extra cap room, and general manager Mark Dominik has publicly said the team plans to be more active in free agency. But fans need to keep that in perspective. The Bucs aren’t going to suddenly return to the days when Jon Gruden and Bruce Allen regularly shelled out money for big-name players in their 30s. The Bucs started a youth movement three years ago, and there are some parts in place. Now, it’s time for them to supplement those parts. They’ll be active in free agency, but they’ll be focusing on players still in their 20s. They’ll also be focusing on improving the supporting cast of quarterback Josh Freeman, who they believe can become great. Look for them to add a speed receiver, perhaps someone like Mario Manningham (Giants) or Eddie Royal (Broncos). The Bucs also want to improve at running back, where Blount is a one-dimensional power runner. They could look for a pass-catching specialist or opt to look for a complete back who could even replace Blount as the starter. On defense, the Bucs probably will try to upgrade at linebacker. If Barber and/or Talib aren’t back, the Bucs will have to make a move or two at cornerback and probably wouldn’t hesitate to pay big money to someone such as Cortland Finnegan (Titans).

Reaction to the New Orleans Saints’ bounty program continues to dominate the headlines around the NFC South, although there is some other news. Let’s take a look at Wednesday morning’s top stories from around the division.

Doug Plank said that bounties for hurting players were never part of the system in Buddy Ryan’s famous defense in Chicago in the 1980s. Plank said there were small rewards for big plays or big hits, but said he was never aware of instructions to intentionally hurt an opponent.

Former Carolina safety Mike Minter said the Panthers had an incentive program among players during his career. But Minter said the rewards were for things like defensive players making interceptions or forcing fumbles and players making big plays on special teams. He said there were no incentives for causing injuries.

Randy Moss reportedly performed very well in his Tuesday workout with the Saints. It does not appear that New Orleans has offered the wide receiver a contract and he reportedly could be working out elsewhere in the coming days. But the Saints now have a gauge on what kind of shape the 35-year-old is in and it sounds like they’re impressed. If they lose Marques Colston or Robert Meachem in free agency, the Saints then may decide to make an offer to Moss.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers very quietly signed tight end Chase Coffman, who was out of the NFL last year. This might not turn out to be much of anything because Coffman has had an unproductive career. But signing him is worth a shot because Coffman appeared to have some upside when he was a third-round pick by the Cincinnati Bengals in 2009. Coffman also has a friendship with Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman.

Former NFL quarterback Erik Kramer, who played for Ron Turner with the Chicago Bears, had high praise for Tampa Bay’s new quarterbacks coach. Kramer said he thinks Turner will be a big help to Freeman. That’s exactly what the Bucs are hoping for. Despite a disappointing 2011 season, the Bucs still view Freeman as their franchise quarterback and want to get him back on track.

The news that Randy Moss is working out for the New Orleans Saints is big, simply because names don’t come much bigger when it comes to wide receivers.

But I don’t know that a 35-year-old wide receiver who was out of football last season is suddenly going to come in and carry the Saints to a Super Bowl title. I don’t even know if the Saints actually will sign Moss.

What’s happening here is the Saints are looking at possibilities. That’s not a bad idea because they could be losing top receiver Marques Colston when free agency starts next week. They also could lose Robert Meachem, who, while not as prolific as Colston, has become an important cog in the Saints’ rotation of wide receivers.

Moss is worth a look. If he has anything left, he becomes an option if Colston and/or Meachem depart. Like Colston and Meachem, Moss is a taller wide receiver and could pair nicely with shorter receivers Lance Moore and Devery Henderson.

But Moss isn’t a carbon copy of Colston. In his best days -- and it’s been a while since Moss was at the top of his game (2009 in New England was his last good season) -- he wasn’t the same style of receiver as Colston. Moss was a long-striding receiver who could get open deep. Colston has never been that kind of player. But Colston’s real value to the Saints has been in the midlevel passing game. He has dependable hands and his size has allowed him to make a big impact over the middle.

But the reality is that New Orleans’ cap situation could make it impossible for the Saints to keep Colston. Moss likely would come at a cheap price.

The question that’s always been associated with Moss has been, is he worth the trouble, at any price? As we all know, Moss’ enormous talent often has been overshadowed by his behavior. At just about every one of his stops, Moss has gained a reputation for being selfish and not a great influence in the locker room.

But if the Saints lose Colston and Moss shows in his workout that he has some physical skills left, I say go ahead and sign him.

The Saints have taken shots on guys with less-than-stellar reputations in the past and that often has worked out. That’s because the Saints have a different locker room than most teams. They have a locker room that’s run with an iron hand by quarterback Drew Brees.

There’s an unwritten rule in New Orleans that nobody messes with Brees, and everyone in the locker room is held accountable by the quarterback. A lot of people said tight end Jeremy Shockey would be a problem when the Saints brought him in a few years back.

Shockey had pushed Giants quarterback Eli Manning all around when the two were together in New York. But Shockey’s time in New Orleans was relatively peaceful. That’s because Shockey knew he wouldn’t be there long if he crossed Brees or didn’t work up to the standards expected by the quarterback.

It can work the same way with Moss.

The New Orleans Saints will work out veteran receiver Randy Moss, according to Kristian Garic of WWL Radio.

It’s not known when the workout will take place, but the Saints can sign Moss at any time because he was out of the NFL last season. At the very least, consider this a sign that the Saints are looking at Moss as a possible option if receiver Marques Colston leaves when free agency starts next week.

That’s a real possibility because the Saints are expected to have minimal cap room and also could lose receiver Robert Meachem.

Like Colston and Meachem, Moss is a big target. The other top receivers remaining on the roster, Lance Moore and Devery Henderson, are smaller receivers. The Saints traditionally have liked to give quarterback Drew Brees a mixture of big and small receivers.

For several months now, I’ve been hearing from a lot of Atlanta Falcons fans that think the team should go hard after New Orleans Saints guard Carl Nicks in free agency.

My standard thinking on that was that I was against the move. Nicks is the best guard in the league and he’s going to cost big money. No doubt the Falcons could use some improved play at guard, but my thinking was conventional. As a general rule, you don’t pay guards huge money. But you do pay big money to left tackles and the Saints have a much bigger need there.

Sam Baker, a 2008 first-round draft pick, hasn’t really worked out. He lost his starting job last season and could be released. I still think the Saints need to do something pretty major at left tackle.

But my thinking on Nicks now has changed. I now say the Falcons should go all out in an attempt to sign Nicks. He’d upgrade the interior of their line and his presence alone probably would make whoever ends up at left tackle a little better.

But that’s not the main reason I think the Falcons should go after Nicks. I think they should do it because they might be able to deliver a knockout punch to their division rivals. With the franchise tag being used on quarterback Drew Brees, the Saints have almost no salary-cap room left. They reportedly have re-worked the contract of defensive end Will Smith. They could re-work the deal of linebacker Jonathan Vilma or they could release him and some other guys could be on their way out the door for cap reasons.

Quite simply, the Saints probably don’t have the cap room to sign Nicks. The same goes for receiver Marques Colston, cornerback Tracy Porter and receiver Robert Meachem as well as some other former role players.

As I wrote last week, this salary-cap situation could end up gutting the Saints as we know them. As long as they have Brees, they’ll remain competitive and they may even remain the class of the NFC South. But the Saints are a team that’s vulnerable right now (and we don’t even know what penalties might come from their “bounty program," but those penalties are likely to be severe).

In a lot of ways, the Saints are sort of on the ropes right now. The Falcons don’t like the Saints and the feeling is mutual. Since the arrival of coach Mike Smith in 2008, Atlanta often has had to play second fiddle to the Saints in the NFC South.

The Saints have won the division two of the past three years and they won the Super Bowl at the end of the 2009 season. The Falcons have been competitive with them, but you’d have to say the Saints have had the upper-hand in the division for most of recent history.

But all that’s going on with the Saints could leave them stumbling a bit. The Falcons are sitting pretty. They’ve got decent cap space and a good team that could be ready to take the next step.

Going out and getting Nicks would only help the Falcons as a team. But, maybe more importantly than strengthening themselves, the Falcons could weaken the Saints.

The man who made the New Orleans Saints could end up breaking them.

Drew Brees arrived in 2006 as the Saints and the city of New Orleans were still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. He brought instant credibility, an explosive brand of offense and sustained success for a franchise that had been hapless through most of its existence. He also played a vital role in rebuilding New Orleans and the Gulf South region.

Now, the price tag on all that is coming due. Brees is scheduled to become a free agent on March 13. He and the Saints are negotiating, but reports indicate the two sides remain far apart. That in itself is a little unbelievable because the parameters of this deal are obvious. Brees deserves to be the highest-paid player in NFL history.

He’s coming off a year in which he set the NFL record for passing yards in a season (5,476), and he should get at least as much as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, who average $18 million per year.

I have no doubt that, when all is said and done, Brees will remain with the Saints. If negotiations on a long-term deal continue to fail, the Saints will simply put the franchise tag on their franchise quarterback.

But, either way, this is when we could begin to see the beginning of the end of the Saints as we know them.

They’re not going to be the same team they were last season when they went 13-3. They might not even be the same team they were in 2010 when they went 11-5. And they certainly aren’t going to be the same team they were in the magical 2009 season when they won the Super Bowl.

They’ll have the same quarterback, and that’s a great start. But the economics of his contract mean the Saints aren’t going to have the same quality of players at a lot of other positions. That’s not Brees’ fault, or the team’s fault. It’s simply reality in the modern NFL.

By the time next season rolls around and everything has shaken out, the Saints could be taking several steps back. They’ll still have a high-powered offense because they’ll have Brees, Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham, but that offense might not be quite the machine it’s been the past few seasons. That’s because some parts are going to be gone and they can’t truly be replaced.

On defense, which wasn’t an area of strength to begin with, the Saints have a new coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, who needs new pieces to execute his scheme. He’s not going to be able to get all he needs -- at least not this offseason.

So you’re looking at an offense that probably will be a notch or two below what it’s been in recent seasons. And you’re looking at a defense that’s probably going to be far from dominant.

Gee, that sounds pretty much like the Saints were in 2007 and ’08. They scored a lot of points, but the offense wasn’t quite perfect. The defense was far below perfect. That added up to mediocre seasons that didn’t end in trips to the playoffs.

That could be what the Saints face in 2012.

We haven’t even seen the full fallout yet, but we can start looking ahead and, no matter how you slice it, it’s tough to paint a pretty picture.

Brees isn’t the only big-name free agent the Saints have, but he’s the only one they’re absolutely sure to keep. The same can’t be said for guard Carl Nicks and wide receiver Marques Colston. It definitely can’t be said for receiver Robert Meachem and cornerback Tracy Porter, who aren’t on the Nicks/Colston level have been valuable contributors.

At absolute best, the Saints will be able to sign Brees and then place the franchise tag on either Nicks or Colston. At worst, they use the franchise tag on Brees, while Colston and Nicks both walk.

You don’t replace Nicks. He’s the best guard in the NFL and he may be just hitting his prime. Although the Saints have another very good guard in Jahri Evans, they no longer would have the unquestioned best guard tandem in the NFL.

Without Nicks, Brees would lose his best protector. Any quarterback, even Brees, isn’t quite as good when he’s getting pressured (think back to last season’s stunning loss to St. Louis).

Colston probably isn't on his way to the Hall of Fame, but he’s been Brees’ favorite target since they joined forces in 2006. Colston has had 1,000-yard receiving seasons in five of his six years. He’s a big target who isn't afraid to go over the middle. Take him away and take Meachem away, and the Saints would still have Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Adrian Arrington. Moore and Henderson are nice, experienced receivers, but they don’t do the things Colston does.

And when you’ve got no cap room to sign free agents and no first-round draft pick, where are you going to get a receiver who does anything close to what Colston does? And where are you going to get a guard who is anywhere near as good as Nicks?

So let’s subtract a few points a game from the Saints’ offense going forward. And we’re only just beginning to talk about a defense that could end up giving up more points than it has in recent seasons.

This defense isn’t loaded with talent and we soon could see subtraction by subtraction. This salary-cap jam almost certainly will force the Saints to let Porter walk. That’s not that big a deal. The Saints have a top-flight corner in Jabari Greer, and it’s pretty apparent they’ve been preparing for Porter’s eventual departure by drafting Patrick Robinson and Johnny Patrick in recent years.

But the cost of keeping Brees, and maybe Nicks or Colston, means it’s almost certain the Saints are going to have to trim some cap room by releasing some prominent defensive players or at least restructuring their contracts.

Middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma and defensive end Will Smith are likely the top two targets for that. Although both are aging and Vilma is coming off a knee injury, those two have been New Orleans’ defensive leaders throughout coach Sean Payton’s tenure. Take Vilma away from a group of linebackers that’s ordinary, and you’ve got a group of linebackers that’s less than ordinary. And you're without the next guy in the leadership chain after Brees.

Again, the Saints don’t have the currency (cap room or prime draft picks) to make major upgrades here. Take Smith away from a pass rush that hasn’t even been ordinary, and you’ve got the potential for huge problems.

Unlike predecessor Gregg Williams, whose defensive philosophy was to be opportunistic and create turnovers, Spagnuolo believes in playing more of a shutdown defense, and he likes to generate almost all of his pressure from the front four. With Smith, the Saints have one guy up front who can rush the passer. Without him, they won’t have any.

Good luck trying to find a guy in the middle rounds of the draft or a low-priced free agent who will step right in and give you double-digit sacks. Spagnuolo is a good coach and his hiring set off celebrations in New Orleans. But a coach is only as good as the players around him, and Spagnuolo is probably not going to have a great deal of defensive talent in his first year.

That could be the story of the Saints in 2012.

Keeping their quarterback would at least keep them competitive, but they won't take steps forward if their roster is wiped out and the cap situation keeps them from being rebuilt.