NFC South: Ron Edwards

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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Panthers in 2012.

Dream scenario (11-5): With the Saints dealing with turmoil and the Falcons facing enormous pressure, it’s at least possible that the two teams that have dominated the NFC South in recent years won’t win it in 2012. The Panthers are the next logical choice, and there are all sorts of reasons for optimism.

Coach Ron Rivera’s entering his second season and so is quarterback Cam Newton, who was the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year despite not having an offseason with his coaches and their playbook. Newton should only continue to improve, a scary thought for a guy who lit up defenses with his arm and his legs last season. He has Steve Smith still going strong, a backfield that includes Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams, and has added fullback/tailback Mike Tolbert.

There are far fewer questions about Carolina’s offense than there were a year ago. It’s obvious the Panthers are going to score some points on offense. But the defense will tell the story. If this team is going to make the playoffs, Jon Beason and Ron Edwards must make strong comebacks from injuries and rookie linebacker Luke Kuechly must make an instant impact.

Nightmare scenario (6-10): Anything less than last year’s 6-10 record would be a huge disappointment. Although I don’t think it’s likely, it’s at least possible that Newton will take a step back. If he does, then maybe Smith no longer looks so young and maybe that loaded backfield doesn’t look so good. Then there’s the matter of the defense that was so bad a year ago. A lot of people seem to assume the return of Beason and Edwards and the addition of Kuechly will solve everything. But maybe Beason and Edwards aren’t the players they were before their injuries, and maybe Kuechly doesn’t live up to his billing.

If all that happens, then the Panthers really aren’t going to be any different than they were the last couple of seasons.

Pressure point: Panthers

May, 17, 2012
May 17
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» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
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Examining who faces the most challenging season for the Panthers and why.

There probably isn’t a defensive coordinator in the league who has faced more criticism than Sean McDermott the past two seasons. He was fired by Philadelphia after the 2010 season, and his defense was dismal in his first season in Carolina.

McDermott got a bit of a pass because Carolina had a bunch of injuries on defense, it was the first year for a new coaching staff and rookie quarterback Cam Newton and a suddenly explosive offense gave fans a nice distraction. But, no matter how many points Newton and the offense scored, the Carolina defense had enormous trouble protecting leads in a 6-10 season. The excuses won’t fly this time around.

Linebackers Jon Beason and Thomas Davis and defensive tackle Ron Edwards are returning from injuries and the Panthers added linebacker Luke Kuechly in the first round of this year’s draft. McDermott has the personnel necessary to put together a respectable defense. The injured players and Kuechly join a nucleus that includes defensive end Charles Johnson and cornerback Chris Gamble, and the pressure is squarely on McDermott to put a good defense on the field.

If he can do that, Carolina could be a legitimate playoff contender. If not, McDermott could be on the hot seat.
The New Orleans Saints and the continuing fallout from their bounty program was the dominant topic in Friday’s NFC South chat. But there were plenty of other topics that came up -- Drew Brees’ contract situation, Tampa Bay’s fresh start under Greg Schiano, hope for a better season from Atlanta’s Ray Edwards and Carolina rookie linebacker Luke Kuechly also were discussed.

Let’s take a look at the highlights:

Agentsaturn (Pantherland): Hey Pat, So whats the word on Jacoby Jones visiting the Panthers? Are they really looking for a FA receiver at this point?

Pat Yasinskas: Hurney doesn't bring guys in if he doesn't have some interest in them. Still, haven't heard any word on if they made him an offer or not.

Matt [via mobile]: Man what is the deal with Drew Brees. He made me a saints fan when I wasn't one I thought he's was one on the few good ones left and a true team mate. I know everybody wants to get paid but to me now it's become pride and pure greed with him. When is 20 million not enough? Thoughts?

Pat Yasinskas: I still think it will get done before too long. If he's not there for start of training camp, then I think it's fair to start pointing fingers. But, right now, it's just typical negotiating.

Matthew (Sarasota, Florida): How do you feel about the new Tampa regime now that free agency and the draft are over?

Pat Yasinskas: Like just about everything they've done. I also like the atmosphere Schiano is creating. Have you seen the tv commercial with him? I think it pretty much sums up the attitude he's trying to bring.

Matt (North Carolina): A lot of people criticized the Panthers for not drafting a DT (and gave them lower grades because of it). Does everyone forget about Ron Edwards coming back this year?

Pat Yasinskas: Excellent point. I think a lot of people have forgotten about Edwards. He was a big free-agent signing last year and Panthers obviously believe he will come back and be a force.

Corey babineaux (Louisiana): Everybody thinking the saints wool suffer this year because of suspensions. The offense will still put up 30+ a game and withe the additions the defense will be better. Your thoughts?

Pat Yasinskas: I think they still are very much a contender. We all know the offense is good. If Spagnuolo can get them to play a little defense, they could go a long way.

Stacey (AZ): I'm a bit confused over coach Vitt's suspension. Many have stated that Vitt will return after the Saints' bye week. This falls one game short of the suspension. Is Vitt's suspension in terms of weeks or games? If it is games then that would mean he doesn't return until two weeks after the bye. Can you clarify?

Pat Yasinskas: He is suspended for the first six games. Loomis is suspended for the first eight. It's about games, not weeks.

bird brain atl [via mobile]: who will the falcons use for a punt returner now that Weems is gone?

Pat Yasinskas: Excellent question and I think that will be decided in training camp. Dominiuqe Franks, Harry Douglas and Jacquizz Rodgers would seem like possibilities.

Kirk (Myrtle Beach): Was Kuechly drafted as insurance more for Beason or Davis. It was originally thought to be Davis, but Schefter's report about Achilles tendons taking 2 years to get back to normal makes me think Beason.

Pat Yasinskas: I think Kuechly was drafted there mostly because he was best player available. But, yeah the uncertainty about Davis and Beason certainly factors in. They got wiped out at LB last year and can't afford to have that happen again.

Matt Riddle (Atlanta, Ga): After a mediocre season Ray Edwards has all but disappeared from the discussion as a pass rush threat. Have the Falcons completely lost hope that Edwards can reach his potential?

Pat Yasinskas: I think they hope he'll step up this year. They've talked a little about how his knee wasn't healthy last year. Plus, I think Ray was a little embarrassed by last year and should be motivated.

Greg (Watertown, CT): Shouldn't we be including Asante Samuel in the Falcons' draft evaluations? And doesn't that make their draft look better?

Pat Yasinskas: Yeah, I think you could make that argument. He certainly makes their secondary better. He also should help their pass rush because QBs may be holding onto the ball for an extra split second or two.

Here’s the complete transcript of Friday’s NFC South chat.

Panthers: One big question

May, 3, 2012
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Can the defense be as good as the offense?

Quarterback Cam Newton and coordinator Rob Chudzinski arrived last year and instantly gave the Panthers the most exciting offense in franchise history. It could have been a special season. It wasn’t, though, and that’s because the defense was dismal.

That had to be hard to take for coach Ron Rivera, a former defensive coordinator. The offense remains pretty much intact, and it has added fullback/running back Mike Tolbert, so there should be plenty of points again next season. But the Panthers have to stop other teams from scoring so much if they really are going to contend in the NFC South.

They took a big step by drafting middle linebacker Luke Kuechly, who should start right away. But this offseason wasn’t as much about rebuilding the defense as it was getting key components healthy. Defensive tackle Ron Edwards, whom the Panthers signed last year to fix their run defense once and for all, is expected back at full strength after missing all of last season with an injury.

Linebackers Thomas Davis and Jon Beason also are coming back from injuries that kept them out most of last season. Beason should step right back in as the leader of this defense. Davis is a question mark because he’s coming back from his third torn ACL. Anything Davis can give this defense will be a plus.

But adding Kuechly and getting Beason and Edwards back means the Panthers should be able to put a respectable defense on the field on a consistent basis.
This is the time of year when you hear a lot about offseason workouts. This is when teams can begin conditioning drills and get out onto the field to start working on football and that continues through minicamps and organized team activities.

It’s a great time to build chemistry. You’ll also hear a lot of coaches bragging about how almost all their players are participating in the workouts, which is great. But, in some cases, there’s a lot of money to be earned just for showing up and working out in the offseason.

I just got a look at all the offseason workout bonuses scheduled to be earned (if the players take part in a majority of the workouts) by NFC South players this year and there were some eye openers. Tampa Bay general manager Mark Dominik doesn’t use a lot of workout bonuses in the contracts he negotiates. But, when he does use them, they’re significant. Tight end Kellen Winslow and cornerback Eric Wright have the largest workout bonuses in the division for 2012 at $500,000 each. Offensive tackle Donald Penn is right behind them at $400,000 and defensive tackle Gerald McCoy is scheduled to collect $300,000. Linebacker Quincy Black has a $250,000 bonus and defensive tackle Amobi Okoye is slated to make $200,000. Those six are the only Buccaneers with workout bonuses this year, but they come to a total of $2.15 million.

Carolina general manager Marty Hurney and New Orleans general manager Mickey Loomis are much more liberal in their use of workout bonuses. The Saints and Panthers each have 21 players scheduled to earn workout bonuses this year.

Carolina’s scheduled workout bonuses add up to $2.055 million. I won’t list anyone under six figures. But here are the guys who can earn big money. Charles Johnson, Jon Beason, DeAngelo Williams, Ryan Kalil and Ron Edwards each are scheduled to make $250,000. Charles Godfrey, James Anderson, Olindo Mare and Garry Williams each can earn $100,000.

If all the New Orleans players take part in enough workouts, the Saints will have to pay out $2.381 million. Sedrick Ellis leads the Saints with a $250,000 workout bonus. Jahri Evans, Lance Moore and Scott Shanle each are scheduled to make $200,000 and Will Smith is slated to make $150,000. Marques Colston, Roman Harper, Jabari Greer, Jermon Bushrod, Jonathan Vilma, Malcolm Jenkins, Devery Henderson, Pierre Thomas, David Thomas, Korey Hall and Will Herring each are scheduled to make $100,000.

Apparently, Atlanta’s Thomas Dimitroff, who probably works out more (he rides a bike religiously) than any NFC South general manager, doesn’t believe in workout bonuses. Dimitroff has used them very sparingly in the past. This year, there’s not a single Atlanta player schedule to earn a workout bonus.
The NFL draft is over and the Carolina Panthers have added at least one new starter.

That’s linebacker Luke Kuechly, who was drafted with the No. 9 overall pick. It just remains to be seen if he’ll start in the middle or on the outside.

Let’s take a look at Carolina’s projected depth chart as I see it at the moment.

OFFENSE
DEFENSE
  • MLB Jon Beason or Kuechly (one of them will move outside)
SPECIALISTS
  • P Brad Mortman (at least one rookie besides Kuechly will play a lot)
  • PR Joe Adams (the rookie also could get some time as the slot receiver)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the NFC South winners in the NFL draft, according to ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper Jr.



The Bucs and the Philadelphia Eagles were the only teams Kiper graded with an A on their overall draft, in this Insider postInsider.

No argument here. Tampa Bay came out of the draft with three instant starters in safety Mark Barron, running back Doug Martin and linebacker Lavonte David. General manager Mark Dominik did an excellent job of moving up and back to squeeze as much as he could out of this draft.

Kiper gave the Carolina Panthers a B-. He talks glowingly about first-round pick Luke Kuechly and how he’ll solidify the linebacker corps. But Kiper questions the Panthers for not adding a defensive tackle, and I don’t have a big problem with that. The Panthers are getting Ron Edwards back after he missed last season with an injury and second-year pros Terrell McClain and Sione Fua should only improve on what they did as rookies.

Kiper graded the Falcons with a C and the Saints with a C-. That may be a little harsh and you have to factor in that the Falcons didn’t have a first-round pick and the Saints didn’t pick until the third round. You’re not going to get big-name players when you’re in that situation.

But I think the Falcons did a nice job of addressing needs, particularly with Wisconsin’s Peter Konz in the second round. He should solidify the interior of the offensive line. The Saints added defensive tackle Akiem Hicks in the third round and receiver Nick Toon in the fourth, and I like both picks. Hicks may have played college football in Canada, but he has lots of upside and new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is likely to give him significant playing time. Toon might not have much upside, but he’s a polished wide receiver and should fit nicely into New Orleans’ passing game.

NFC South draft analysis

April, 28, 2012
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» NFC draft analysis: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

The 2012 NFL draft won’t be remembered as the flashiest in NFC South history. That honor belongs to the 2011 draft -- probably forever.

It’s tough to top a draft in which quarterback Cam Newton went No. 1 to Carolina, Atlanta traded up for receiver Julio Jones and New Orleans traded back into the first round to get running back Mark Ingram. Aside from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' pretty good splash, this year’s NFC South draft wasn’t filled with drama.

Instead, it was filled with very deliberate picks that addressed big needs all around the division.

BEST MOVE

No pick set the division's tone for this draft better than Carolina's selection of Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly at No. 9 overall.

There’s nothing really flashy about Kuechly, but the Panthers didn’t need flash this time around. They got that with Newton, and he gave them a prolific offense. But that offense was only enough to carry the Panthers to a 6-10 record last season. Carolina couldn’t play defense, and opponents have run all over the Panthers the last few seasons.

A lot of people thought the Panthers should go with a defensive tackle in the first round. But there were two reasons they didn’t. They weren’t enamored of any of the first-round prospects at that position. They also feel pretty good about what they already have at defensive tackle. Ron Edwards, a big free-agent pickup last year, is coming back from an injury that kept him out last season, and the Panthers think he can anchor their defensive line. They also used two third-round picks on defensive tackles Terrell McClain and Sione Fua last year.

The Panthers believe they have the personnel to clog up the middle. Kuechly should be able to come in and do what he does best. He can roam the field and be the kind of tackling machine he was in college. This guy had as few flaws as any player in the draft and is ready to make an instant impact. It remains to be seen whether Keuchly or Jon Beason will play the middle and which one will slide outside. It doesn’t really matter. Either way, the Panthers now have a deep linebacker corps that should be able to stop just about any running game.

RISKIEST MOVE

You could say the Saints made a risky move by using their first draft pick on a player who didn’t even play his college ball in the United States. They drafted Regina (Canada) defensive tackle Akiem Hicks with the No. 89 overall pick in the third round.

The fact Hicks didn’t play against elite completion means there is obvious risk with this pick. But why not take a shot when you’re this late in the third round? Hicks has tremendous upside, and he was good enough to be recruited to LSU before leaving for Canada. The Saints have a great history of discovering gems (Jimmy Graham, Jahri Evans and Marques Colston) later in the draft. They took a risk, but it might pay off.

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Mark Barron and Doug Martin
Kim Klement/US PresswireThe Bucs made headlines with their first-round draft picks, S Mark Barron and RB Doug Martin.
Hicks should at least have a chance at some playing time early on. The Saints don’t have much behind Brodrick Bunkley and Sedrick Ellis at defensive tackle. Hicks could end up in the rotation very quickly, and the Saints could end up looking very smart for taking this risk.

MOST SURPRISING MOVE

The Bucs haven’t been exciting in any way in quite some time. But they provided virtually all of the excitement within the division in this draft. General manager Mark Dominik shrewdly made some trades that gave the Bucs the ammunition to move up twice and come out of the draft with three instant starters.

Get over the fact that Dominik used the No. 7 overall pick on a safety, Alabama’s Mark Barron. The Bucs weren’t sold on LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne for reasons we don’t know. They were sold on Barron, and safety might have been the weakest position on their roster heading into the draft. Trading down from No. 5 to No. 7 started a process in which Dominik was able to manipulate the draft with trades that gave him two other starters -- running back Doug Martin and outside linebacker Lavonte David.

The Bucs traded back into the first round to get Martin late Thursday night. They were without a second-round pick Friday night. But they saw David sitting there, they had the ammunition, and they pounced. No NFC South team needed more help from this draft than the Buccaneers, and Dominik made sure they got help that will matter right from the start.

FILE IT AWAY

Atlanta’s selection of Wisconsin fullback Bradie Ewing in the fifth round might not seem like a big deal on the surface. For now, Ewing is probably nothing more than a special-teams player. But the Falcons also were looking a year or two down the road when they made this pick. Veteran fullback Ovie Mughelli is coming off a major injury, and he’ll turn 32 in June. It was time to find someone to groom as Mughelli’s eventual successor.

Panthers go with Luke Kuechly

April, 26, 2012
Apr 26
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video
So much for a defensive tackle for the Carolina Panthers in the first round. As I’ve said all along, I didn’t think the Panthers necessarily wanted to go in that direction.

Kuechly
Kuechly
That turned out to be true Thursday night as the Panthers had their choice of any defensive tackle in the draft and they passed. Instead, they took Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly.

I see a couple of reasons for this. The Panthers know they have Ron Edwards returning from injury and several young defensive tackles they like. They also have major needs at linebacker, where Jon Beason and Thomas Davis are coming back from major injuries.

Kuechly is a run-stuffer in his own right. The guy was a tackling machine in college. Put him behind Edwards and alongside Beason, Davis and James Anderson and Carolina suddenly has a much better run defense.

It remains to be seen if the Panthers will go with Beason or Kuechly in the middle. But the upside is both of them have the ability to be very good there. One of them will move outside and that provides insurance if Davis isn’t the player he once was.

Film of the NFC South chat

April, 14, 2012
Apr 14
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Lots of good questions in our weekly NFC South chat. Let’s take a look at some of the highlights.

Brian (New Orleans): What are realistic expectations for the Saints this season? Assuming Brees is back.

Pat Yasinskas: Let's see what happens as far as player suspensions and how that will impact the defense. But, assuming Brees situation gets resolved, I would expect the offense to be as productive as it's been in recent years, so that should keep them in decent shape.

Mike [via mobile]: Do you think that Joe Vitt will be a good coach?

Pat Yasinskas: Yeah, he's a long-time NFL assistant. He's respected around the league. Players respect him. He'll keep things as close to the Payton way as possible.

Steve Albarado (Ventura, CA): Been a longtime fan of your blog Pat, I check it daily. Just gonna put this out there though. The Saints will move on from this huge dissapointing scandle, and us Saints' fans look to you and your blog to keep us informed very often. Any way you can stop all your Saints bashing?

Pat Yasinskas: Bashing? I work with what is there to work with. There's not a way I can put a pretty spin on what's been going on and say everything is rosy right now. For the last three years, I wrote almost all glowing things about the Saints because they were winning.

Laurin (Chatham,VA): Since the Panthers extended Steve Smith's contract and resigned Jordan Senn, where does that put them in respect to the Salary Cap?

Pat Yasinskas: Looked at that this morning. Think they're about $5.1 or $5.2 million under. Also, keep in mind, they're lugging around the full $7.6 cap hit for Travelle Wharton until June 1. After that, they can spread that between this year and next.

Trey (charlotte nc): Do u think the panthers can revive their defense this year like they did their offense last year?

Pat Yasinskas: Not sure it will be as dynamic as the offense. But I think simply getting Ron Edwards and Jon Beason back makes them a lot better on defense.

donte (Chattanooga): Pat, your article yesterday (Door Open In NFC South) insinuates my Falcons are on the way down...guess that means I can go ahead and purchase my Super Bowl tickets now?

Pat Yasinskas: Really, you took it that way? I think I just mentioned the fact they haven't done much in offseason and could still be dealing with mental aspects of playoff loss to Giants. I only slightly suggest it's at least possible they could slip. I don't think they will slip.

Matt Riddle (Atlanta, Ga): As a Falcon fan there is nothing I would enjoy more than to have a Hard Knocks featuring my team and I hope that they accept the offer. Having said that, there's a lot of speculation that Atlanta is more of the methodical, workmen-like, or in other words boring type of team compared to some others out there. Being in the locker room and knowing the players, do you agree with this stereo-type and do you think the Falcons can provide a highly entertaining product to the nation? Thanks.

Pat Yasinskas: I think it's probably going to happen. Their locker room isn't filled with the type of drama many locker rooms have. But I think they'd still be interesting. They're a team that clearly is feeling pressure to take the next step. Plus, Roddy is capable of being entertaining or creating drama of his own at any time.

Otto (Jackson, MS): Is there any word on the Bucs season ticket sales since making a splash in FA?

Pat Yasinskas: They haven't given any exact numbers or anything like that. But they said they have seen a sales increase since the big signings.

Tony (new jersey): Pat as a lifelong bucs fan I am a rare breed up north, I just want to know is there a real possibilty of the bucs replacing blount at rb, i know he needs to improve in certain areas but the reality is he can be a good back with good coaching, your thoughts..

Pat Yasinskas: Might want to ask Greg Schiano about that one. He's been sending some pretty strong messages on that.

Here’s the complete transcript of Friday’s NFC South chat.
We’re closing in on the NFL draft and our friends at ESPN Stats & Information are getting into full draft mode.

Take a look at this post by John Parolin, in which he takes a look at the biggest needs for each NFC South team and backs them up with numbers.

The Falcons don’t have a first-round pick this year, but it’s pretty obvious they need to add a pass-rusher at some point in the draft. Last season, Atlanta ranked 20th in the league as the Falcons recorded a sack on one of every 20.7 drop backs by opponents. It’s pretty clear the Falcons need a pass rush from someone besides John Abraham.

Parolin enhances something we already knew. Carolina’s run defense was dismal last season. The left side of the defense was particularly bad, allowing a league-worst 2.5 yards per rush after contact. That’s why a lot of people are assuming the Panthers will take a defensive tackle. It could happen, but I don’t think it’s a given. The Panthers have defensive tackle Ron Edwards coming back from injury. The Panthers paid a lot of money to sign him last year and think he’ll help their run defense. They could go in a lot of different directions with the No. 9 pick.

The Saints don’t have a pick until the third round, but the numbers say they’ll look for help in the defensive secondary somewhere in this draft. Last season, New Orleans had the second-worst touchdown-to-interception ratio on throws over the middle. The Saints were plus-13 in that category. They’ve helped themselves at linebacker in free agency and could look to get better at cornerback and safety. But I think the Saints are in the same boat as the Falcons. If their defense really is going to improve, they need to improve the pass rush.

The numbers also say Tampa Bay needs help in the secondary. The Bucs didn’t have a single interception last season on throws over 20 yards. They also allowed a 16.6-yard average on such throws, which ranked 30th in the NFL. That’s why I think Tampa Bay goes with LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne at No. 5 overall.

Is the door open in NFC South?

April, 12, 2012
Apr 12
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Greg Schiano, Vincent JacksonCliff Welch/Icon SMIA free-agent class led by Vincent Jackson, right, could push Greg Schiano and the Bucs into contention.


The best thing about living in much of the South is that you can leave the door open in December and January. The flip side is, you never know who’s going to walk in.

That’s been demonstrated repeatedly throughout most of the decade the NFC South has been in existence. Worst to first isn’t just a hokey slogan in this division. It’s been a reality.

Not counting the inaugural season (because there was no defending champion or reigning last-place team in a division that didn’t exist before 2002), there have been six NFC South teams that finished fourth in the division one season and ended up winning it the following year. The trend started with the Carolina Panthers and their miraculous run to the Super Bowl in the 2003 season.

The Atlanta Falcons pulled off worst to first in 2004. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers did it twice -- in 2005 and 2007. So did the New Orleans Saints. They did it in 2006 and again in 2009, the season after which they won their only Super Bowl.

But the worst-to-first trend has stopped since then. The Saints and Falcons have stayed consistently good and managed only to flip back and forth between first and second place.

This could be the season in which things get back to normal. Let’s be clear that I’m not ready to write off the Saints, as long as they have Drew Brees at quarterback, or an Atlanta roster that’s loaded with talent and has the potential to click at any moment.

But you look at what has happened in New Orleans and what hasn’t happened in Atlanta this offseason and you have to wonder if it’s at least possible that new Tampa Bay coach Greg Schiano is about to pull off a miracle on Dale Mabry Highway or if Carolina linebacker Thomas Davis knew what he was talking about when he said the Panthers are headed for the Super Bowl.

The Saints’ bounty program has left them without coach Sean Payton for the entire season and they have little chance of pulling anything off in the draft because they don’t have a pick until the third round. They lost some free agents, like Carl Nicks and Tracy Porter. Plus, there’s the very real possibility that multiple players could face suspensions for their roles in the bounty program. Maybe adversity becomes a rallying cry for the Saints and they stay atop the division. Or maybe the bottom falls out of what was a great three-year run.

If that happens, the Falcons would seem the logical choice to step up. They did go 10-6 last season, although you could say they underachieved slightly throughout the regular season and tremendously in their playoff loss to the New York Giants. And what have the Falcons done to improve their roster this offseason?

Ladies and gentlemen, I present linebacker Lofa Tatupu and guard Vince Manuwai, two guys who didn’t play in the NFL last season.

Yeah, I know how the Falcons like to point to their roster continuity and changes at offensive and defensive coordinator as reasons they’ll be better this season. Those are valid points. But, still, the way last season ended, you have to at least wonder if the Falcons have already started their downhill slide.

[+] Enlarge
Thomas Davis
AP Photo/Bob LeveroneThe return of linebacker Thomas Davis should provide an immediate boost for Carolina's defense.
Then, you look at the Buccaneers and Panthers and you see two teams that almost have to be on the rise. In the case of the Bucs, that’s mainly because they can’t go any lower.

Tampa Bay ended last season on a 10-game losing streak. Raheem Morris left for London at 4-2 last October, looking like the NFL’s next great coach. That guy hasn’t been seen since. But Schiano is in his office now and he seems to be saying and doing all the right things. He got rid of safety Tanard Jackson and coaxed safety Ronde Barber into coming back for one more year. Plus, Schiano has one luxury Morris didn’t last year -- a free-agent class.

A year after punter Michael Koenen was their big addition in free agency, the Bucs went out and made one of the league’s biggest splashes. They signed receiver Vincent Jackson, Nicks and cornerback Eric Wright.

Mix those guys in with some young talent (Josh Freeman, Gerald McCoy, Adrian Clayborn and some others), let Schiano restore a little order in the locker room and on the practice fields and worst to first at least seems like a possibility.

But, even if the Saints and Falcons slip, the Panthers could be ahead of the Bucs. They only won six games last season, but it might have been the most positive six-win season in NFL history. With Ron Rivera taking over for John Fox, the Panthers suddenly realized the NFL became a passing league a few years ago and started playing catch-up. They used the No. 1 overall draft pick on Cam Newton and suddenly had one of the NFL’s most prolific offenses.

The problem was the Panthers couldn’t do the one thing they always did under Fox -- play defense. That was largely because defensive tackle Ron Edwards was lost to injury in training camp and linebackers Jon Beason and Davis quickly followed. All three are expected back and that instantly should give Carolina a better defense. It only needs to be a little better, because Newton and that offense are going to score enough points for the Panthers to stay in the game with anyone.

Can the Panthers and/or the Bucs pass the Saints and Falcons?

We’ll see. It’s only April and the NFC South door looks to be wide open. Let’s see if it's still ajar -- or maybe even off the hinges -- in December.
It remains to be seen if Carolina Panthers linebacker Thomas Davis can come all the way back after tearing his ACL for the third time. But it sure sounds like Davis’ confidence is already at full strength.

Davis, a University of Georgia product, was in Athens on Tuesday night speaking to the Touchdown Club of Athens and he made some strong statements about how he expects the Panthers to fare this season.

“I am looking forward to playing the full 19-game season and winning the Super Bowl,’’ Davis said.

Those are very lofty goals for a linebacker who has appeared in just nine games since the start of the 2009 season and a franchise that’s won eight games over the last two years. But Davis made reference to the Panthers going to the Super Bowl several times.

“I see us finishing our season in New Orleans and I don’t mean playing the New Orleans Saints,’’ Davis said. “I’m looking forward to getting a healthy team back together and everyone gelling. I think that we can make a strong push to the playoffs and possibly to the Super Bowl.”

Davis’ expectations might not be as ridiculous as they sound. With rookie quarterback Cam Newton leading the way, the Panthers developed an explosive offense last season. That side of the ball should only get better with Newton having a full offseason program for the first time. The Panthers were 6-10 last year and the story of their season was their inability to protect leads late in games.

The defense, which was devastated by injuries, struggled mightily. The Panthers haven’t done much on defense in free agency, but Davis said he expects major improvement on that side of the ball.

“I know that me being out there will definitely make a difference,’’ Davis said. “Not just myself but Jon Beason, Ron Edwards to name a few guys that got injured that would have made a world of difference for our defense. We are moving in the right direction and are excited about this season.”

Davis has a point. He and Beason have been top-notch linebackers in the past. Edwards was brought in as a free agent last year and the hope was he would solidify the middle of the defensive line. That didn’t work out as Edwards was injured early in the preseason. Davis and Beason went down early in the regular season.

Plug those three back into the lineup. That’s like adding three major free agents to Carolina’s defense. If they all can stay healthy, Davis’ goals might not be so far fetched.

NFC South free-agency assessment

March, 29, 2012
Mar 29
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Atlanta Falcons

Key additions: LB Lofa Tatupu, G Vince Manuwai

Key losses: LB Curtis Lofton, WR/KR Eric Weems

Keeping their own: Much to the chagrin of their fans, the Falcons chose not to pursue defensive end Mario Williams or any other big-name free agent. Instead, they focused hard on keeping their own guys. That started before the season ended with tight end Tony Gonzalez re-signing and continued into free agency as the Falcons made it a point to lock up guys like receiver Harry Douglas, defensive end John Abraham and running back Jason Snelling. They also protected cornerback Brent Grimes with the franchise tag.

The only loss that really hurt was Lofton. The Falcons liked him, but new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan didn’t view him as a three-down player. The Falcons still made an effort to keep Lofton, but weren’t willing to pay big money. They brought in the veteran Tatupu, who could be a short-term answer. But there’s a hope within the organization that second-year pro Akeem Dent can step forward and win the job immediately because he’s the guy that’s going to end up there for the long term.

What’s next: Don’t completely rule out the addition of a minor or mid-level free agent or two, but the Falcons are focusing mainly on the draft. Even with Abraham back, they’re still looking to improve their pass rush and defensive ends could be in play. But the Falcons also could add a defensive tackle because Jonathan Babineaux and Peria Jerry are coming off sub-par seasons. Some depth in the secondary and a kick returner also are possible targets.

Key additions: RB/FB Mike Tolbert, G Mike Pollak

Key losses: G Travelle Wharton

The splash came last year: The Panthers haven’t been very active in free agency. That’s largely because they made their big moves coming out of the lockout last year. They signed defensive end Charles Johnson, running back DeAngelo Williams, linebacker Jon Beason, defensive tackle Ron Edwards and linebacker Thomas Davis to huge deals, and that’s why they had very little salary-cap room to work with this year.

But the Panthers didn’t really reap the rewards of some of those signings because Beason, Davis and Edwards all suffered early injuries. That took a toll on the defense. But all three of those guys are back and healthy and that should improve the defense immediately. Carolina developed an explosive offense last season and a strong defense could turn the Panthers into playoff contenders.

What’s next: The Panthers have very little cap room and don’t figure to make many more moves in free agency. They’re focused in on the draft and there needs have been narrowed. They’re likely to address cornerback and defensive tackle early in the draft. But don’t be surprised if they take a linebacker somewhere in the first three or four rounds, and it’s even possible they could target one in the first or second. Davis is coming off his torn ACL and the Panthers don’t know if he’ll be anything close to what he was before the injuries.

New Orleans Saints

Key additions: LB Curtis Lofton, DT Brodrick Bunkley, G Ben Grubbs

Key losses: G Carl Nicks, CB Tracy Porter

Miracle workers: Faced with an extremely tight salary-cap situation and some bizarre off-field events, it’s somewhat amazing the Saints were able to keep as much as they did. They didn’t want to lose Nicks, who might be the best guard in the league and is in his prime. But that’s the price they had to pay to make sure they kept quarterback Drew Brees and receiver Marques Colston, as well as adding players like Lofton, Grubbs and Bunkley.

The Brees situation remains complicated. He's still carrying the franchise tag. The Saints need to get him signed to a long-term deal quickly. Even more than ever, the Saints need Brees’ leadership abilities. They need him signed and happy before their offseason program starts April 16.

What’s next: With the possibility of multiple defensive players facing possible suspensions as a result of the bounty program, the Saints still could be looking to make significant moves. It will be hard to draft players that will make an instant impact because the Saints are without picks in the first two rounds. That means they might have to pull some more help out of free agency, even with limited cap space. They could use another pass-rusher to complement Will Smith. Even after adding Lofton and Bunkley, the Saints still could use depth at linebacker and defensive tackle.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Key additions: WR Vincent Jackson, G Carl Nicks, CB Eric Wright

Key losses: C Jeff Faine

Locking them up: Part of the reason the Bucs didn’t lose much of anything in free agency is because they’ve done a nice job of locking up some core players in recent years. They made it a point to make sure offensive linemen Donald Penn, Davin Joseph and Jeremy Zuttah never got close to leaving. Add Nicks to that group and the Bucs have a chance to have one of the league’s better offensive lines. As the season gets going, some other young players will be rewarded with contract extensions as they show they fit in coach Greg Schiano’s system.

What’s next: After making the initial splash, the Bucs said they’re done with free agency and are focused on the draft. That’s largely true, although the team is keeping a close eye on what remains on the market. This is a team that still is building and will still have needs after the draft. The Bucs have a big need at running back, where they have to find at least one player to complement LeGarrette Blount. The cornerback position could be an early target in the draft even after Ronde Barber decided to return for a 16th season. There also is some uncertainty about Aqib Talib's future. Even if he remains with the team, the Bucs need depth at the position. There also is uncertainty at linebacker and a need for depth at safety and tight end.
It is March, but we’ve already got the first edition of the 2012 ESPN.com Power Rankings and they don’t paint a pretty picture for the NFC South.

Although two division teams were in the top 10 of the final rankings for the 2011 season, there isn’t a single NFC South team in this top 10. The New Orleans Saints, who finished last season ranked No. 2, have taken a huge tumble. They’re No. 11.

That’s still the highest ranking of any team in the division, but I think it also might be the biggest and fastest drop in the history of our rankings. It’s somewhat understandable. Since the NFL’s punishments for the Saints (including the suspension of coach Sean Payton for a year) were announced there’s been a lot of speculation that New Orleans could suffer some ugly consequences on the field. The voters obviously agree with that.

I really don’t know how much the Saints will be impacted by what has happened and part of me believes they’ll still be very competitive as long as Drew Brees is on the field. But I’d like to wait and see what happens as far as possible player suspensions before drawing any conclusions on how much the Saints will suffer on the field.

The Atlanta Falcons haven’t had nearly as turbulent an offseason as the Saints, but they still have fallen quite a bit in the eyes of the voters. The Falcons were No. 7 in the final 2011 rankings. This time around, they’re No. 13. I can’t read the minds of the voters, but I feel pretty safe in saying Atlanta’s drop in the rankings is a combination of things. Start with the fact the Falcons didn’t make any big splash in free agency and then throw in their ugly loss to the Giants in the playoffs. I think that game still weighs heavily in the minds of the voters.

That’s the downside in these rankings for the NFC South. The upside is that Carolina and Tampa Bay are on the rise. The Panthers ended last season at No. 23, but they’ve moved up five spots to No. 18.

I think it’s pretty obvious to just about everyone that Carolina already has a pretty good offense and the defense should only get better with the return of linebackers Jon Beason and Thomas Davis and defensive tackle Ron Edwards from injuries, and there’s an expectation out there Carolina will continue to add to its defense through the draft.

The Buccaneers ended last season with a 10-game losing streak and were No. 29 in the final rankings. They’ve moved up to No. 24.

I think that’s a reflection of a couple of things -- new coach Greg Schiano will bring some order to a team that clearly lacked it last season and the Bucs made a pretty big splash by signing free agents Vincent Jackson, Carl Nicks and Eric Wright.
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