NFC South: strength of schedule

Here’s something else to ponder as we get ready for Tuesday evening’s release of the NFL regular-season schedule.

We’ve already shown you the league-wide chart on strength of schedule and it says the Carolina Panthers have the NFC South’s toughest schedule (based on the 2011 record of opponents). But let’s take that a little further. With some help from ESPN Stats & Information, let’s see who has the division’s toughest schedule at home and on the road.

The New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the division’s toughest road schedules. The Saints have the division’s hardest road schedule and also are tied for No. 9 in the NFL. Their road opponents had a .531 winning percentage last season. The Bucs are No. 14 (.508). The Panthers are tied for No. 17 (.492). The Atlanta Falcons have the division’s easiest road schedule. They’re tied for No. 23 with road opponents compiling a .477 winning percentage in 2011.

The Buccaneers have the division’s easiest home schedule. Their opponents combined for a .461 winning percentage last year. Only seven teams have easier home schedules. The Saints, who have been especially good in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in recent years, also have what appears to be a pretty easy home schedule. The teams the Saints host had a .477 winning percentage in 2012.

Atlanta’s home opponents went .500 last season. Carolina has the division’s hardest home schedule. The Panthers will host teams that had a .523 winning percentage. Only 10 teams face tougher home schedules.

It's schedule release day

April, 17, 2012
Apr 17
9:21
AM ET
Let’s start Tuesday off with a reminder that this is one of the biggest days of the offseason. The 2012 NFL regular-season schedule will be announced at 7 p.m. ET.

Soon after the schedule is released, I’ll provide an analysis piece on each of the four NFC South team schedules. Some things I’ll be keeping an eye on will be how many nationally-televised games Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers get, which home games the Tampa Bay Buccaneers might have a chance to sell out, when exactly the Saints will host the 49ers in a rematch of last season’s infamous playoff game and when the Falcons host the Giants in a rematch of another playoff game that was infamous for other reasons.

You can get yourself ready for the schedule release with this list of opponents (home and away) for each team and this strength-of-schedule chart for all NFL teams.

Looking ahead to 2012 schedule

April, 16, 2012
Apr 16
11:33
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The NFL is expected to announce the 2012 regular-season schedule this week, perhaps as early as Tuesday.

We’ll find out dates and times then, but we already know opponents. We also know things aren’t going to be easy for the New Orleans Saints and we’re not even talking about the fallout from their bounty program.

Based purely on the records of opponents, John Clayton writes that the Saints, who went 13-3 last season, could drop about three wins, if history holds true.

The combined records of last season’s opponents totaled a .449 winning percentage. This season, that number jumps to .504. Clayton points out that .65 differential is the largest in the NFL.

The Atlanta Falcons, generally seen as the main threat to take the NFC South title from New Orleans didn’t have nearly as big a swing in opponent’s winning percentage. Last season, it was .480. This year, it’s .488.

You can see the strength of schedule for all NFL teams here. The Carolina Panthers have the NFC South’s hardest schedule (opponents had a .508 winning percentage in 2011) and rank No. 10 in the league. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the division’s easiest schedule. Their opponents had a .484 winning percentage in 2011 and that ranks No. 27 in the league.

You can see the list of 2012 opponents for all NFL teams here.

Bucs' schedule historically tough?

November, 17, 2011
11/17/11
2:58
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We’ve already discussed how the Buccaneers have faced one of the league’s toughest schedules in their first nine games. Coach Raheem Morris also has mentioned it.

No doubt, the Bucs have played a difficult schedule. But the folks over at Grantland are taking this a step further.

They’ve used a complicated mathematical formula and they’re saying the Bucs have a schedule that's so difficult that it's historic. Well, good to see the Bucs are making history for something.

They point to the last six games and say that the closest comparison game when the 2000 Washington Redskins played a brutal six-game stretch. The formula is great and it might help put Tampa Bay’s 4-5 start into perspective.

About the only thing I’d add that isn’t mentioned is that six-game stretch also included a “home’’ game in London. Traveling that far is never easy, even though it sounds like the Bucs may do it again in the future.

Bucs have faced stiff schedule

November, 15, 2011
11/15/11
4:25
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Last season, when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 10-6, the frequent knock was that their schedule was too soft.

This year, the Bucs are off to a 4-5 start and their schedule has been anything but soft. At the moment, the Bucs have played the league’s fourth most difficult schedule. That’s based on the combined records of the opponents each NFL team has faced.

Tampa Bay’s opponents are a combined 48-37 (.565 winning percentage). No other NFC South team is even in the top 12. The Seattle Seahawks have had the league’s most difficult schedule so far. Seattle’s opponents are 49-33 (.598). Minnesota and Denver are the only other teams that have played more difficult schedules than Tampa Bay’s.

The Carolina Panthers are No. 13. Their opponents are 43-39 (.524). The Atlanta Falcons are No. 21. Their opponents are 40-43 (.482). The New Orleans Saints are No. 25. Their opponents are 42-50 (.457).

The Bucs are the only team in the NFL who have played their last five games against teams who now currently have six wins (New Orleans twice). Things do get a little easier for the Bucs going forward. Their remaining opponents are a combined 31-32 (.492).
The National Football League is releasing its regular-season schedule Tuesday night, but we already know the Carolina Panthers will play the league’s toughest schedule.

That, of course, is based on strength of schedule, which is the combined 2010 win-loss record for all 2011 opponents. So how does a 2-14 team end up with the league’s toughest schedule?

Well, you can put a big part of the blame on the rest of the NFC South. Take the 2010 win totals for the Falcons (13), Saints (11) and Buccaneers (10) and double them. Right there, you’ve got a combined 68 victories and that’s a big part of the reason why Carolina’s 2011 opponents were a combined 142-114 (.555 win percentage) last season.

The Buffalo Bills who will face opponents with a combined .535 percentage have the league’s second most difficult schedule.

The Saints are tied for No. 13 on the list of hardest schedules. Their opponents were a combined 130-126 (.508) last season. The Buccaneers and Falcons face opponents who combined to go less than .500 last season.

Tampa Bay comes in at No. 18 with opponents who went 127-129 (.496). Atlanta is tied for No. 19 with opponents who went 126-130 (.492) last season.
The Carolina Panthers will have the No. 1 pick in the 2011 draft. The team with the NFL’s worst record in 2010 also will have the league’s hardest 2011 schedule.

According to ESPN Stats & Information, Carolina’s 2011 opponents had a combined 142-114 record in 2010. That’s a .555 winning percentage and it puts Carolina at the top of the list. Buffalo is second with opponents combining for a .535 winning percentage.

New Orleans is the only other NFC South team whose opponents combined for a winning percentage over .500 in 2010. New Orleans’ opponents were 130-126 (a .508 winning percentage) and that ties the Saints for the 13th toughest 2011 schedule.

Tampa Bay comes in at No. 18 with opponents compiling a 127-129 record (.496) in 2010 and Atlanta’s tied for No. 19 with opponents holding a 126-130 record (.492).

So why do the last-place Panthers end up with the toughest schedule? Well, they can thank the rest of the NFC South for that. The Saints, Bucs and Falcons all had double-digit wins and each of them counts twice as an opponent because they’ll play the Panthers twice.

Can Panthers grab some draft Luck?

December, 13, 2010
12/13/10
8:30
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If the season ended today -- and there are plenty of Carolina fans, players and coaches who wish it did -- the Panthers would hold the No. 1 pick in the 2011 college draft.

Here’s some stuff on how the draft order (at least the top stands). This is coming straight from ESPN Stats & Information, so I’ll leave it in their words:
The draft order goes from worse to better won-loss records, with ties broken by strength of schedule (team with “easier” schedule picks first) and then applicable conference/division tiebreakers. Obviously, the two Monday night games can’t be factored in yet.

IMPORTANT NOTE: For the purposes of this projection, each team’s FULL-SEASON STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE is used – meaning the “SOS” number includes the records of all opponents on the team’s schedule, not just the schedule the team has played to date.

Great, so the Panthers get the first pick in the draft. The conventional wisdom is that the first player picked in the draft will be Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck.

Oh, that’s just wonderful. I can see it now. About this time next year, the team’s “leader’’ and best player will come out and say something like “He ain’t in Stanford anymore, that’s for sure’’.

Listen, I know this might not be what a lot of Carolina fans want to hear, but I think there’s still a good chance Jimmy Clausen is the quarterback of this team going forward. I’m not saying I’m sold on Clausen by any means. In fact, I don’t think you can even judge him on this season because he’s been in an offense that’s been beyond dysfunctional.

I’m saying Clausen might be the guy going forward because the people that will be sticking around with the Panthers next season (and that list doesn’t include coach John Fox) still think Clausen can be a good NFL quarterback.

That said, those same people also realize they might not even a choice other than to take a talent like Luck. But other than the Panthers winning a couple of their last three games, there are a couple scenarios where the Panthers might not end up with Luck.

First off, there’s a common assumption that Luck, a junior, automatically will enter the draft. Some people who are watching this situation very closely are saying they’re hearing Luck might stay at Stanford for his senior season.

Then, there’s one other thing to keep in mind. It’s entirely possible the Panthers could try to trade out of the top spot and add some additional picks. They did that once before.

In their expansion season (1995), the Panthers briefly held the No. 1 pick. Then, they traded out of that spot. Cincinnati had the first pick and took Penn State running back Ki-Jana Carter. Carolina took Penn State quarterback Kerry Collins with the fifth overall pick.

Speaking of Penn State guys, when I was talking to Carolina general manager Marty Hurney not too long ago, I offered him a little advice. I told him he can turn this thing around if he goes out and drafts some more Penn State players.

Then, I told Hurney who I think he should take with the No. 1 overall pick -- Penn State running back Evan Royster. I was serious about the first part, but even a Penn State fan can’t really believe Royster is the top pick in the draft or even a first-round choice.

Hurney knew I was joking and laughed. It was kind of nice to hear a laugh from a guy who hasn’t been able to do much of that recently.

NFC South schedules not scary

April, 13, 2010
4/13/10
5:37
PM ET
We are still waiting for the NFL to announce its 2010 regular-season schedule. All indications are it will be coming very soon.

While we wait, we still can at least talk about strength of schedule. Remember last year, when it seemed like all four NFC South teams had brutal schedules? Well, this year, it’s not nearly as bad.

Here’s the chart with the strength of schedule. It’s based on 2009 win-loss records by 2010 opponents and nobody in the NFC South has a particularly tough draw.

The Falcons actually have the toughest schedule in the division, but it’s No. 20 in the league and their opponents didn’t even combine for a .500 record in 2009.

The Bucs, Panthers and Saints come in at Nos. 25, 26 and 27 respectively.
The four NFC South teams, which went into the 2009 season with very difficult schedules, won’t have it nearly as bad in 2010.

According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Atlanta Falcons have the division’s hardest schedule in 2010. But the good news is the schedule ranks No. 20 in the league. The schedule for the Buccaneers is rated No. 25. For the Panthers, it’s No. 26 and it’s No. 27 for the Saints.

Here’s the complete list.

Posted by ESPN.com's Pat Yasinskas

I believe we've been through this before, but I just spotted the strength of schedule page in the NFL's 2009 Kickoff Guide and it's quite interesting for the NFC South.

The Panthers, Falcons and Bucs have absolutely brutal schedules and the Saints aren't far behind.

Carolina has the league's second-hardest schedule. Their opponents had a .592 winning percentage in 2008. Only Miami, whose opponents had a .594 percentage, has a harder schedule. Carolina plays 15 games against teams that were .500 or better last season - the most of any team in the league. The Panthers also face seven of last year's playoff teams, which ties them for the league lead.

Atlanta has the fourth-hardest schedule. Falcons' opponents were 150-105 (.588) last year. The Falcons have 14 games against teams that were .500 or better and they play five playoff teams.

Tampa Bay is one spot behind Atlanta. The Bucs' opponents had a .580 winning percentage last year. Tampa Bay plays 13 teams that were .500 or better and seven playoff teams.
The Saints rank eighth in degree of difficulty. Their opponents posted a .557 winning percentage last season. The Saints will face 13 teams that were .500 or better and seven playoff teams.

Posted by ESPN.com's Pat Yasinskas

The conclusion of the Super Bowl means all we have to look forward to is next season. On the surface, 2009 is not going to be an easy season for the NFC South.

All four teams rank in the top eight when it comes to schedule difficulty. Based on the 2008 records of opponents, Carolina has the league's second-hardest schedule. Atlanta ranks fourth, Tampa Bay fifth and New Orleans eighth.

But there may be a silver lining to all this. At this time last year, the Pittsburgh Steelers had the toughest schedule based on this system. They went out and won the Super Bowl.

Here's a look at the difficulty of every team's schedule for 2009:

Highest Opponents' Combined Win Pct (2009 Schedule)

Win Loss Tie Opp. Combined
win pct*
1. Miami Dolphins 152 104 0 .594
2. Carolina Panthers 151 104 1 .592
3. New England Patriots 151 105 0 .590
4. Atlanta Falcons 150 105 1 .588
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 148 107 1 .580
6. Buffalo Bills 146 110 0 .570
7. New York Jets 145 110 1 .568
8. New Orleans Saints 142 113 1 .557
9. Philadelphia Eagles 137 119 0 .535
10. New York Giants 134 120 2 .527
11. Dallas Cowboys 131 123 2 .516
11. Jacksonville Jaguars 132 124 0 .516
13. Indianapolis Colts 131 125 0 .512
14. Tennessee Titans 130 126 0 .508
15. Houston Texans 129 126 1 .506
16. Washington Redskins 125 129 2 .492
17. Kansas City Chiefs 123 131 2 .484
17. San Diego Chargers 123 131 2 .484
19. Denver Broncos 122 132 2 .480
19. Oakland Raiders 122 132 2 .480
21. Detroit Lions 119 136 1 .467
22. Cincinnati Bengals 119 137 0 .465
22. St. Louis Rams 119 137 0 .465
24. Seattle Seahawks 117 139 0 .457
25. Cleveland Browns 114 140 2 .449
26. San Francisco 49ers 113 142 1 .443
27. Arizona Cardinals 113 143 0 .441
28. Baltimore Ravens 111 143 2 .438
29. Pittsburgh Steelers 110 144 2 .434
30. Green Bay Packers 109 146 1 .428
31. Minnesota Vikings 107 148 1 .420
32. Chicago Bears 105 149 2 .414
* Based on opponents' 2008 record

Posted by ESPN.com's Pat Yasinskas

It's a good thing the Carolina Panthers got off to a fast start. The 8-3 record they built might come in handy because they have the toughest remaining schedule of any NFC team that's a strong playoff contender. Only the Philadelphia Eagles, who are barely hanging on at 5-5-1, have anything close to Carolina's remaining schedule.

The Panthers and Eagles both play opponents who have a combined .636 winning percentage. That's substantially harder than what the three other NFC South teams face in the final five weeks.

Here's a look:


TAMPA BAY
(8-3)

CAROLINA
(8-3)

ATLANTA
(7-4)

NEW ORLEANS
(6-5)

OPP. RECORD

28-27
(.509)

35-20
(.636)

26-29
(.473)

29-26
(.527)

WEEK 13

New Orleans
(6-5)

at Green Bay
(5-6)

at San Diego
(4-7)

at Tampa Bay
(8-3)

WEEK 14

at Carolina
(8-3)

Tampa Bay
(8-3)

at New Orleans (6-5)

Atlanta
(7-4)

WEEK 15

at Atlanta
(7-4)

Denver
(6-5)

Tampa Bay
(8-3)

at Chicago
(6-5)

WEEK 16

San Diego
(4-7)

at NY Giants (10-1)

at Minnesota (6-5)

at Detroit
(0-11)

WEEK 17

Oakland
(3-8)

at New Orleans (6-5)

St. Louis
(2-9)

Carolina
(8-3)

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