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The best thing about living in much of the South is that you can leave the door open in December and January. The flip side is, you never know who’s going to walk in.

That’s been demonstrated repeatedly throughout most of the decade the NFC South has been in existence. Worst to first isn’t just a hokey slogan in this division. It’s been a reality.

Not counting the inaugural season (because there was no defending champion or reigning last-place team in a division that didn’t exist before 2002), there have been six NFC South teams that finished fourth in the division one season and ended up winning it the following year. The trend started with the Carolina Panthers and their miraculous run to the Super Bowl in the 2003 season.

The Atlanta Falcons pulled off worst to first in 2004. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers did it twice -- in 2005 and 2007. So did the New Orleans Saints. They did it in 2006 and again in 2009, the season after which they won their only Super Bowl.

But the worst-to-first trend has stopped since then. The Saints and Falcons have stayed consistently good and managed only to flip back and forth between first and second place.

This could be the season in which things get back to normal. Let’s be clear that I’m not ready to write off the Saints, as long as they have Drew Brees at quarterback, or an Atlanta roster that’s loaded with talent and has the potential to click at any moment.

But you look at what has happened in New Orleans and what hasn’t happened in Atlanta this offseason and you have to wonder if it’s at least possible that new Tampa Bay coach Greg Schiano is about to pull off a miracle on Dale Mabry Highway or if Carolina linebacker Thomas Davis knew what he was talking about when he said the Panthers are headed for the Super Bowl.

The Saints’ bounty program has left them without coach Sean Payton for the entire season and they have little chance of pulling anything off in the draft because they don’t have a pick until the third round. They lost some free agents, like Carl Nicks and Tracy Porter. Plus, there’s the very real possibility that multiple players could face suspensions for their roles in the bounty program. Maybe adversity becomes a rallying cry for the Saints and they stay atop the division. Or maybe the bottom falls out of what was a great three-year run.

If that happens, the Falcons would seem the logical choice to step up. They did go 10-6 last season, although you could say they underachieved slightly throughout the regular season and tremendously in their playoff loss to the New York Giants. And what have the Falcons done to improve their roster this offseason?

Ladies and gentlemen, I present linebacker Lofa Tatupu and guard Vince Manuwai, two guys who didn’t play in the NFL last season.

Yeah, I know how the Falcons like to point to their roster continuity and changes at offensive and defensive coordinator as reasons they’ll be better this season. Those are valid points. But, still, the way last season ended, you have to at least wonder if the Falcons have already started their downhill slide.

Then, you look at the Buccaneers and Panthers and you see two teams that almost have to be on the rise. In the case of the Bucs, that’s mainly because they can’t go any lower.

Tampa Bay ended last season on a 10-game losing streak. Raheem Morris left for London at 4-2 last October, looking like the NFL’s next great coach. That guy hasn’t been seen since. But Schiano is in his office now and he seems to be saying and doing all the right things. He got rid of safety Tanard Jackson and coaxed safety Ronde Barber into coming back for one more year. Plus, Schiano has one luxury Morris didn’t last year -- a free-agent class.

A year after punter Michael Koenen was their big addition in free agency, the Bucs went out and made one of the league’s biggest splashes. They signed receiver Vincent Jackson, Nicks and cornerback Eric Wright.

Mix those guys in with some young talent (Josh Freeman, Gerald McCoy, Adrian Clayborn and some others), let Schiano restore a little order in the locker room and on the practice fields and worst to first at least seems like a possibility.

But, even if the Saints and Falcons slip, the Panthers could be ahead of the Bucs. They only won six games last season, but it might have been the most positive six-win season in NFL history. With Ron Rivera taking over for John Fox, the Panthers suddenly realized the NFL became a passing league a few years ago and started playing catch-up. They used the No. 1 overall draft pick on Cam Newton and suddenly had one of the NFL’s most prolific offenses.

The problem was the Panthers couldn’t do the one thing they always did under Fox -- play defense. That was largely because defensive tackle Ron Edwards was lost to injury in training camp and linebackers Jon Beason and Davis quickly followed. All three are expected back and that instantly should give Carolina a better defense. It only needs to be a little better, because Newton and that offense are going to score enough points for the Panthers to stay in the game with anyone.

Can the Panthers and/or the Bucs pass the Saints and Falcons?

We’ll see. It’s only April and the NFC South door looks to be wide open. Let’s see if it's still ajar -- or maybe even off the hinges -- in December.

We already showed you my assessment of how the NFC South teams have fared so far in free agency.

Now, let’s turn to another view. Check out this Insider post by Matt Williamson, who grades how every team has done in free agency. Overall, Williamson gave out pretty good grades to the NFC South teams.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers got an A-. They signed receiver Vincent Jackson, guard Carl Nicks and cornerback Eric Wright. Williamson slightly questions giving Wright so much money and says he wishes the Bucs had added a veteran leader or two. But those are about the only knocks anyone can come up with on what Tampa Bay has done.

Williamson gives the Saints a B, which I think is about right. They lost Nicks, receiver Robert Meachem and cornerback Tracy Porter. But I think they were expecting to lose all three after putting the franchise tag on quarterback Drew Brees and re-signing Marques Colston. Given the fact that he had almost no salary-cap room to work with, general manager Mickey Loomis did a pretty remarkable job in signing guard Ben Grubbs, linebacker Curtis Lofton and defensive tackle Brodrick Bunkley.

The Falcons graded out at a C+. That may seem a little high to fans who are angry that the Falcons really didn’t bring anything from outside. But Williamson is generous with his grade because he recognizes the importance of keeping your own players. The Falcons did a nice job of that. The only thing they really lost was Lofton. That is a loss, but the Falcons only wanted him back at the right price and they stayed behind the line they drew in the sand.

The only team that got a bad grade was the Carolina Panthers. They got a D, which tied them (with Arizona) for the lowest grade in the league. I think this one might be a little harsh. Yeah, I realize the Panthers didn’t do much in free agency. But the bright side is, they really didn’t lose anything. The signing of running back/fullback Mike Tolbert was a bit curious because Carolina already was loaded in the backfield. But I think we could end up seeing Jonathan Stewart or DeAngelo Williams getting traded. Even if the Panthers keep all their running backs, that’s not a bad thing. They don’t run the ball as much as they did back in the John Fox days. But look at how New Orleans, a pass-happy team, was able to work in four quality running backs last season.

Let’s take a look at the top headlines from around the NFC South.

We hadn’t heard much from New Orleans running back Pierre Thomas since he took a frightening hit to the head in the playoff loss to San Francisco. But Thomas talked Thursday night and said he has recovered from the injury. Thomas said he was knocked out as soon as he was hit, but that he remembers everything right before the impact and was aware and alert in the locker room after leaving the game.

Alabama running back Trent Richardson, who many are linking to the Bucs with the No. 5 overall pick, had his pro day Thursday. Richardson was time between 4.45 and 4.49 seconds in the 40-yard dash. Speaking of Richardson and the draft, we’ll have our blog network mock draft Monday. I can’t reveal my pick for the Bucs until then, but I will at least tell you Richardson was one of only two guys on my short list for Tampa Bay.

Richardson also said he will have a private workout for the Bucs.

The Saints are scheduled to host free-agent cornerback Kelvin Hayden this weekend. He spent last season with the Atlanta Falcons. The Saints lost Tracy Porter in free agency, but aren’t in bad shape with veteran Jabari Greer and young players Patrick Robinson and Johnny Patrick. But it wouldn’t hurt to add a solid and experienced player like Hayden, who isn’t likely to command a high salary.

Tom Sorensen writes that Oklahoma State wide receiver Justin Blackmon would be a good fit for the Panthers, if he’s available with the No. 9 overall pick in the draft. A lot of people are assuming the Panthers will take a defensive lineman with that pick. That’s possible. But I don’t think anything’s definite. If Blackmon’s available, the Panthers would give him strong consideration. He’d be a nice complement opposite Steve Smith. Plus, I also think there’s another position the Panthers are looking at that could surprise people. That’s linebacker and I think Boston College’s Luke Kuechly is a guy that’s getting a long look.

» AFC Assessments: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Atlanta Falcons

Key additions: LB Lofa Tatupu, G Vince Manuwai

Key losses: LB Curtis Lofton, WR/KR Eric Weems

Keeping their own: Much to the chagrin of their fans, the Falcons chose not to pursue defensive end Mario Williams or any other big-name free agent. Instead, they focused hard on keeping their own guys. That started before the season ended with tight end Tony Gonzalez re-signing and continued into free agency as the Falcons made it a point to lock up guys like receiver Harry Douglas, defensive end John Abraham and running back Jason Snelling. They also protected cornerback Brent Grimes with the franchise tag.

The only loss that really hurt was Lofton. The Falcons liked him, but new defensive coordinator Mike Nolan didn’t view him as a three-down player. The Falcons still made an effort to keep Lofton, but weren’t willing to pay big money. They brought in the veteran Tatupu, who could be a short-term answer. But there’s a hope within the organization that second-year pro Akeem Dent can step forward and win the job immediately because he’s the guy that’s going to end up there for the long term.

What’s next: Don’t completely rule out the addition of a minor or mid-level free agent or two, but the Falcons are focusing mainly on the draft. Even with Abraham back, they’re still looking to improve their pass rush and defensive ends could be in play. But the Falcons also could add a defensive tackle because Jonathan Babineaux and Peria Jerry are coming off sub-par seasons. Some depth in the secondary and a kick returner also are possible targets.

Key additions: RB/FB Mike Tolbert, G Mike Pollak

Key losses: G Travelle Wharton

The splash came last year: The Panthers haven’t been very active in free agency. That’s largely because they made their big moves coming out of the lockout last year. They signed defensive end Charles Johnson, running back DeAngelo Williams, linebacker Jon Beason, defensive tackle Ron Edwards and linebacker Thomas Davis to huge deals, and that’s why they had very little salary-cap room to work with this year.

But the Panthers didn’t really reap the rewards of some of those signings because Beason, Davis and Edwards all suffered early injuries. That took a toll on the defense. But all three of those guys are back and healthy and that should improve the defense immediately. Carolina developed an explosive offense last season and a strong defense could turn the Panthers into playoff contenders.

What’s next: The Panthers have very little cap room and don’t figure to make many more moves in free agency. They’re focused in on the draft and there needs have been narrowed. They’re likely to address cornerback and defensive tackle early in the draft. But don’t be surprised if they take a linebacker somewhere in the first three or four rounds, and it’s even possible they could target one in the first or second. Davis is coming off his torn ACL and the Panthers don’t know if he’ll be anything close to what he was before the injuries.

New Orleans Saints

Key additions: LB Curtis Lofton, DT Brodrick Bunkley, G Ben Grubbs

Key losses: G Carl Nicks, CB Tracy Porter

Miracle workers: Faced with an extremely tight salary-cap situation and some bizarre off-field events, it’s somewhat amazing the Saints were able to keep as much as they did. They didn’t want to lose Nicks, who might be the best guard in the league and is in his prime. But that’s the price they had to pay to make sure they kept quarterback Drew Brees and receiver Marques Colston, as well as adding players like Lofton, Grubbs and Bunkley.

The Brees situation remains complicated. He's still carrying the franchise tag. The Saints need to get him signed to a long-term deal quickly. Even more than ever, the Saints need Brees’ leadership abilities. They need him signed and happy before their offseason program starts April 16.

What’s next: With the possibility of multiple defensive players facing possible suspensions as a result of the bounty program, the Saints still could be looking to make significant moves. It will be hard to draft players that will make an instant impact because the Saints are without picks in the first two rounds. That means they might have to pull some more help out of free agency, even with limited cap space. They could use another pass-rusher to complement Will Smith. Even after adding Lofton and Bunkley, the Saints still could use depth at linebacker and defensive tackle.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Key additions: WR Vincent Jackson, G Carl Nicks, CB Eric Wright

Key losses: C Jeff Faine

Locking them up: Part of the reason the Bucs didn’t lose much of anything in free agency is because they’ve done a nice job of locking up some core players in recent years. They made it a point to make sure offensive linemen Donald Penn, Davin Joseph and Jeremy Zuttah never got close to leaving. Add Nicks to that group and the Bucs have a chance to have one of the league’s better offensive lines. As the season gets going, some other young players will be rewarded with contract extensions as they show they fit in coach Greg Schiano’s system.

What’s next: After making the initial splash, the Bucs said they’re done with free agency and are focused on the draft. That’s largely true, although the team is keeping a close eye on what remains on the market. This is a team that still is building and will still have needs after the draft. The Bucs have a big need at running back, where they have to find at least one player to complement LeGarrette Blount. The cornerback position could be an early target in the draft even after Ronde Barber decided to return for a 16th season. There also is some uncertainty about Aqib Talib's future. Even if he remains with the team, the Bucs need depth at the position. There also is uncertainty at linebacker and a need for depth at safety and tight end.

Former New Orleans cornerback Tracy Porter met with the Denver media Friday, shortly after officially signing his contract with the Broncos.

As you might expect, Porter was asked about the bounty program the Saints were severely punished for running the past three seasons. Porter denied there were bounties, then quickly tried to move away from the topic and onto his new start in Denver.

“It’s something that the league felt they had evidence on,’’ Porter said. “The thing that I will say about it is that the whole label of bounties is absurd. There was definitely no bounty on any player out there in the game. We were just playing football. For that term to come up, bounty, I definitely think it is a bit harsh. But, the league investigated, and they felt that they made the right decision, and who am I to come and say that they didn’t make the right decision in issuing out the consequences for what they investigated. That’s something that’s been put in the past, and now I’m looking to begin my career here with the Denver Broncos and help this club get back to New Orleans (site of this season’s Super Bowl) so we can win a championship.”

And for those still looking for the alleged “snitch’’, scratch Porter from your list of possible suspects. He said the NFL never interviewed him about the bounty system.

“The league held their own investigation,’’ Porter said. “I don’t know if they brought it to any players or not, but I was not one of them. The only thing that I can do is focus on free agency and moving on to get in the best situation for myself. I did that by coming to Denver.”

Not all of this morning’s headlines around the NFC South are about the Saints and their bounty program, but most of them are. Let’s take a look.

Jeff Duncan writes that it’s time for Saints owner Tom Benson to step out of the background and start making some important decisions, starting with making sure quarterback Drew Brees signs a long-term contract very soon. I agree totally and wrote something pretty similar the other day. Benson also needs to decide who will replace coach Sean Payton and general manager Mickey Loomis during their suspensions. Benson’s been a hands-off owner, at least when it comes to football operations. It’s time for that to change. Someone has to seize control of this situation and start the healing process. That’s got to be Benson.

Brian Billick wonders if Payton, who will be suspended for one year, might be gone from the Saints for good. It’s a legitimate question. Billick says Benson could dismiss Payton “for cause."

Josh Johnson, who had been the backup quarterback for Tampa Bay, has signed with the San Francisco 49ers. No big surprise there. The Bucs didn’t want Johnson back and had already signed Dan Orlovsky to take over as Josh Freeman’s backup. Johnson played for San Francisco coach Jim Harbaugh when the two were together at the University of San Diego. Johnson will go in as the backup to Alex Smith, who is coming off a solid season, so it’s not like Johnson has a chance to compete for a starting job.

Former New Orleans cornerback Tracy Porter has agreed to terms with the Denver Broncos. Porter had a key interception in the Saints’ Super Bowl victory, but gradually became expendable as the Saints drafted Patrick Robinson and Johnny Patrick in back-to-back years.

Steve Spagnuolo, Pete Carmichael and Aaron Kromer are reportedly the three in-house candidates to fill in for Payton during his one-year suspension. Those are the same three names I speculated on the other day and it didn’t take a great deal of time to come up with that list. It’s pretty obvious those are the three best-qualified candidates on the current staff. Defensive coordinator Spagnuolo has been a head coach before in St. Louis. Offensive coordinator Carmichael is very close to Brees, who carries plenty of clout in the organization. Offensive line coach Kromer is a rising star and his name was tied to several head-coaching openings this offseason.

John Manasso writes that the Falcons stand to benefit from the Saints’ punishments. That’s very true. But, to varying degrees, I think you can say the same of the Panthers and Buccaneers.

Clemson defensive tackle Brandon Thompson said he has a pre-draft interview scheduled with the Falcons. Makes a lot of sense because Jonathan Babineaux is coming off an unproductive season and Peria Jerry has never been able to fully bounce back from the major knee injury he suffered as a rookie.

LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne, who has been tied to the Buccaneers as a possibility at the No. 5 pick, revealed at his pro day that he will have surgery to repair ligament damage in his wrist on Friday. I don’t think that’s going to hurt Claiborne’s draft stock. I also think he helped his stock by running the 40-yard dash in 4.39 seconds.

Peyton Manning could have some company from the NFC South in Denver.

Cornerback Tracy Porter reportedly will visit with the Broncos on Wednesday, according to AFC West colleague Bill Williamson.

The Denver trip will come after Porter completes a visit with the Tennessee Titans. Porter reportedly already visited the Cincinnati Bengals, and there have been reports saying the Oakland Raiders and St. Louis Rams have shown interest.

Porter, 25, has spent most of the past four seasons as a starter for the New Orleans Saints. But the Saints, who are dealing with a tight salary-cap situation, don’t appear to have a big interest in re-signing Porter.

They’re set with Jabari Greer as one starter, and the Saints have used draft picks on Patrick Robinson and Johnny Patrick the past two years.

Let's take a look at the top Tuesday morning headlines from around the NFC South.

We mentioned Monday that legendary Atlanta Journal-Constitution columnist Furman Bisher had died at 93. I knew Bisher only vaguely, having sat in the Pro Football Hall of Fame voting room with him a few times and met him at various Super Bowl gatherings while with one of my mentors, legendary Tampa Tribune columnist and sports editor Tom McEwen, a Bisher contemporary. I read a lot of Bisher columns through the years, but didn’t know the man well. That’s why I strongly suggest you read this heart-felt tribute from his long-time colleague, Jeff Schultz.

Here’s an item that says the Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren’t a great fit for Tim Tebow because they don’t need fans screaming for him any time Josh Freeman makes a mistake. Agreed because the Bucs are trying to re-establish Freeman as their quarterback. But there are more reasons why Tebow wouldn’t fit in Tampa Bay and the biggest is he’s not a pure passer. We’ll have a chart later Tuesday that gauges each NFL team as a landing spot and I did the NFC South portion. Let’s just say it’s a real long shot that Tebow ends up anywhere in this division.

The agent for fullback/running back Mike Tolbert said his client signed with Carolina even though San Diego offered a bigger contract to keep him because he wanted to come “home." Charlotte technically isn’t Tolbert’s home, but it’s much closer to that than San Diego. Tolbert grew up in suburban Atlanta and went to college at Coastal Carolina.

Former Carolina tight end Dante Rosario has signed with San Diego. Ironically, Rosario had the biggest catch of his career against the Chargers, a game-winning touchdown in the last second of a 2008 game.

The New Orleans Saints hosted free-agent linebacker Curtis Lofton and defensive tackle Brodrick Bunkley on Monday. There’s no definitive word on if a contract was offered to either. But the Saints are going to have to trim some cap room if they’re going to sign many more players.

New Orleans cornerback Tracy Porter will make a free-agent visit to Tennessee on Wednesday. Porter already has visited the Bengals. It’s highly unlikely he’ll return to the Saints, who used draft picks the past two years on cornerbacks Patrick Robinson and Johnny Patrick.

Time for a Monday morning run through the top headlines from around the NFC South.

— We’ve been hearing a lot of rumblings that we could find out the punishments for the New Orleans Saints for their role in the bounty program this week and that seems likely to remain true. We could hear something as soon as Monday. But here’s a little twist. Although we could hear of fines and potential lost draft picks for the Saints and suspensions for general manager Mickey Loomis and coach Sean Payton and former New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williiams, there now is speculation we might not hear everything this week. There’s speculation that it could take longer to get news on player suspensions. More than 20 players were reportedly involved in the program and the league still could be figuring out the involvement of each or working on a way to stagger suspensions so the Saints aren’t sitting the majority of their defense at the same time.

— The Panthers have San Diego running back Mike Tolbert in for a visit and already have begun contract talks. Don’t be surprised if Tolbert signs with Carolina by the end of Monday. When the Panthers are serious about a free agent, their goal usually is to make sure he doesn’t leave the building before signing a contract.

What happens if the Panthers do sign Tolbert? There is speculation they could put incumbent running backs DeAngelo Williams or Jonathan Stewart on the trading block. I think the Panthers would have a hard time getting anything for Williams because teams would be hesitant to take on the huge contract he signed last summer. Stewart would be much more appealing in a trade. He’s entering the final year of his rookie contract that’s not nearly as big as Wiliams’ deal. The Panthers also might be wise to get something for Stewart now rather than losing him as a free agent next year.

— Although a civil lawsuit has been filed against Tampa Bay cornerback Aqib Talib following a traffic accident, no criminal charges were filed and no police report was written. Tampa police now are saying the lack of a police report is because the department changed its policy four years ago to save man hours and officers aren’t required to write reports on what they consider minor accidents. In a separate matter, Talib is scheduled to face trial on an assault charge in Texas next week. On that charge, he could face prison time and disciplinary action by the NFL or the team also is possible.

— Sad news out of Atlanta. Legendary Atlanta Journal-Constitution sports columnist Furman Bisher has died. He was 93. Bisher was a contemporary and close friend of my mentor, The Tampa Tribune’s Tom McEwen, who passed away last June. Like McEwen, Bisher played a big role in making what is now the NFC South important.

— New Orleans cornerback Tracy Porter continues to make the free-agent rounds. He’s expected to visit the Oakland Raiders in the next few days.

We’ve got a few developments involving the New Orleans Saints.

They reportedly now are showing some interest in Atlanta linebacker Curtis Lofton. The Saints already have expressed interest in Seattle’s David Hawthorne and Denver’s Joe Mays. This is a pretty strong indication the Saints are looking to shake up their linebacker situation. Middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma is coming off knee surgery and has a high cap figure. Lofton is younger than Vilma and the Saints are very familiar with him after playing against him the past four seasons.

But I don’t think the Saints are the only NFC South team keeping an eye on Lofton. The Falcons made an offer to him before free agency started and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are at least monitoring Lofton’s situation. There also have been reports the Philadelphia Eagles may have interest in Lofton.

In the case of both the Falcons and the Bucs, I think the teams would be more interested in Lofton if his initial asking price drops.

In other news, New Orleans cornerback Tracy Porter is expected to make a free-agent visit to the Cincinnati Bengals, according to two league sources.

Porter also reportedly has drawn interest from the St. Louis Rams.

Porter, 25, has been a starter for the Saints most of the past four seasons and it’s likely the team has some interest in retaining him. But the Saints’ tight salary-cap situation may prohibit that.

If Porter leaves, they have starter Jabari Greer and the team believes Patrick Robinson is ready to be a full-time starter. The team also has high hopes for second-year pro Johnny Patrick.

We’ve touched on the major news already that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have agreed to terms with wide receiver Vincent Jackson and have New Orleans guard Carl Nicks coming in for a visit.

But let’s catch up on some smaller news from around the division.

• New Orleans cornerback Tracy Porter appears ready to leave the Saints as a free agent. He’s drawing early interest from the St. Louis Rams. The Saints have prepared for Porter’s exit by drafting Patrick Robinson and Johnny Patrick the past two years.
• The Bucs are interested in David Carr as a backup for Josh Freeman. This makes lots of sense because Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan was Carr’s quarterbacks coach with the Giants and the Bucs seem to want a veteran to pair with Freeman. They also seem prepared to let go of last year’s backup, Josh Johnson, via free agency. But don’t put Carr on the Bucs’ roster just yet. I’ve heard he’s happy in New York and would return to the Giants if all things are equal. In other words, the Bucs probably will have to overpay if they want Carr, which they may. Even if it’s not Carr, look for the Bucs to add a veteran quarterback.
• Although he didn’t have the four accrued seasons to initially qualify for unrestricted free agency, the Saints did not make a tender to linebacker Ramon Humber. Without the tender, Humber becomes a free agent and still could be re-signed for a minimal salary.
• Former Carolina offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz, who was not offered a tender, will visit with the Detroit Lions.

The New Orleans Saints, who are on the verge of having some key free agents leave, just made a minor signing to keep one of their own players.

The team announced it has agreed to terms with quarterback Chase Daniel on a one-year contract.

“Ever since Chase joined our team in 2009, he’s continued to work hard and progress on the practice field, in the meeting room and in the weight room,” general manager Mickey Loomis said. “His work ethic has served him well as he’s continued his development for us at the quarterback position.”

Daniel has served as the primary backup to Drew Brees, which means he hasn’t received much playing time. In the past two seasons, Daniel has completed six of eight passes for 45 yards and posted an 88.0 NFL passer rating. Daniel also has handled holding duties on field goals and extra points.

The Saints have several bigger names that can become free agents if they're not re-signed by Tuesday afternoon, including receiver Marques Colston, guard Carl Nicks, cornerback Tracy Porter and receiver Robert Meachem.

Take a look at this Insider piece by Gary Horton. He lists the six teams that face the most danger in free agency.

At the very top of the list, he has the New Orleans Saints. This kind of goes along with the column I wrote recently on how the salary-cap implications for quarterback Drew Brees could end up gutting the Saints as we know them.

Horton points out the Saints are running the very real risk of losing free agents Carl Nicks, Marques Colston, Tracy Porter, Robert Meachem and some other role players. As we count down to Tuesday afternoon’s start of free agency, the Saints have a little over $5 million in salary cap room.

I expect that number could grow higher between now and Tuesday afternoon because the Saints are likely to release some players and could restructure more contracts.

But I’m thinking Porter and Meachem will walk. The Saints likely will use whatever salary-cap room they can scrape up to try to keep Nicks and Colston.

It still might be impossible to keep both of them. I think Nicks is the first priority on their list, but they’ve let him get this close to free agency and he’s been making noise that he thinks he’s gone. Even if the Saints make a late offer to Nicks, it seems likely he at least would want to see what’s available on the free-agent market. He’s the best guard in the league and it’s likely some teams with less cap issues than the Saints would like to make a run at him.

» AFC Free-Agency Primer: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Free agency begins Tuesday at 4 p.m. ET

Atlanta Falcons

Key free agents: CB Brent Grimes (franchise tag), LB Curtis Lofton, DE John Abraham, WR Harry Douglas and C Todd McClure.

Where they stand: The Falcons put the franchise tag on Grimes but would like to sign him to a long-term contract. That would improve a salary-cap situation that’s already decent. Keeping Lofton and Douglas, who have been developed by the current coaching staff, is also likely to be a priority. Although Abraham led the team with 9.5 sacks last season, his age and salary expectations work against the possibility of his return. Unless Abraham’s price tag drops significantly, the Falcons seem likely to let him walk. McClure could opt to retire. But if he wants to play, it’s likely the Falcons would welcome him back.

What to expect: After a quick and embarrassing exit from the postseason, owner Arthur Blank made it very clear that simply making the playoffs isn’t good enough. Blank expects to contend for a Super Bowl title. The Falcons went all in last year when they traded up to draft receiver Julio Jones and paid big money to free-agent defensive end Ray Edwards. Look for them to take a similar approach this year. The Falcons are usually good for at least one major move an offseason, and this year we could see two or three. Don’t be surprised if the Falcons go hard after Houston linebacker Mario Williams because they need a pass-rusher to replace Abraham. Without a first-round pick, the Falcons also probably will use free agency to fill a big need at left tackle. There aren’t a lot of options, but tackle Marcus McNeill could be a target if he is released, as expected, by the Chargers. The Falcons could even make a play for New Orleans guard Carl Nicks. His presence would make life easier for any left tackle, and pulling him away from the Saints also would weaken a division rival.

Carolina Panthers

Key free agents: TE Jeremy Shockey, LB Dan Connor, G Geoff Hangartner, LB/DL Antwan Applewhite and QB Derek Anderson.

Where they stand: The Panthers seem to be uncertain whether Shockey plans to retire or keep playing. If he wants to play, they’d gladly take him back because he’s a nice complement to Greg Olsen. They also are likely to make a strong attempt to keep Hangartner, who did a nice job after Carolina had several guards injured last preseason. It’s similar with Applewhite, who was signed during the season and made nice contributions. But the Panthers seem prepared to let Connor test free agency because they can’t promise him playing time with Jon Beason returning from injury as the starting middle linebacker. Anderson could return, but the Panthers likely will at least explore the possibility of looking for an upgrade as Cam Newton’s backup.

What to expect: Don’t expect a lot. The Panthers had their big splurge coming out of the lockout last summer, and they’re paying the tab for that now. They will have to release players and restructure contracts just to get below the cap before free agency starts. Linebacker Thomas Davis, who is coming off his third torn ACL, is a prime candidate for release or restructure. Although the team clearly wants to improve its defense, don’t look for any major moves in free agency. The team simply doesn’t have the cap room to make any big deals. The team might sign a midlevel free agent or two, but major upgrades will have to come through the draft.

New Orleans Saints

Key free agents: QB Drew Brees (franchise tag), G Carl Nicks, WR Marques Colston, CB Tracy Porter and WR Robert Meachem.

Where they stand: The past three years have been the most peaceful and prosperous in franchise history. But the peaceful part already has ended this offseason. In addition to getting into trouble with the NFL for a bounty program, the Saints are dealing with contract issues that are beyond challenging. They used the franchise tag on Brees and that’s going to cost them around $15 million. Even if they do reach a long-term agreement with Brees, his cap figure for this year could climb above $15 million. Either way, the Saints are going to have major cap issues. They’ve already restructured the contract of defensive end Will Smith and may do the same with linebacker Jonathan Vilma or perhaps even release him and some veterans. The Saints are going to have so much cap space tied up in Brees that they’ll have a hard time keeping their other free agents. Nicks would seem to be the priority with Colston close behind. But keeping even one of them would be a victory for the Saints.

What to expect: General manager Mickey Loomis always has been aggressive and daring, and he might have to be even more creative than usual because of the cap situation. The Saints simply aren’t the type of team to sit still. They had flaws exposed in a playoff loss to San Francisco, and they’re asking new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to fix their defense. The problem there is a lot of the current personnel doesn’t fit all that well in Spagnuolo’s scheme. Loomis needs to find a way to get at least one more pass-rusher up front and needs to add an athletic linebacker or two. He also may have to fill more needs if the Saints lose as many free agents as most expect. This team lacks a first-round pick in the draft, so Loomis will have to make some big moves when it comes to releasing players or restructuring contracts just to give the Saints a shot at being a little bit active in free agency.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Key free agents: K Connor Barth (franchise tag), CB Ronde Barber, RB Earnest Graham, LB Geno Hayes, S Sean Jones, DE Michael Bennett (restricted) and RB LeGarrette Blount (exclusive rights).

Where they stand: The Bucs begin coach Greg Schiano’s tenure in a unique situation. They’ve got a ton of cap room and need improvement in lots of areas. But they’ll deal with what they have between now and the start of free agency. A decision on Barber probably will come very soon. Schiano has indicated he’d like the veteran back, but Barber could choose to retire, which also would create a major need at cornerback. That position also could be an issue later in March when starting cornerback Aqib Talib is scheduled for trial on an assault charge. Talib could go to prison or face a suspension from the NFL, but his fate will be unknown at the start of free agency. Hayes didn’t have a great season last year, but he has upside, and the new staff might want to keep him. The Bucs are likely to let Graham walk because of his age. A return by Jones is possible at a reasonable salary, but the Bucs still need to look to upgrade at safety.

What to expect: The exact amount will depend on how many of their free agents are brought back, but the Bucs are likely to have somewhere around $50 million in cap space at the start of free agency and that will put them near the top of the league. After barely dipping into free agency last year, the Bucs were able to carry over extra cap room, and general manager Mark Dominik has publicly said the team plans to be more active in free agency. But fans need to keep that in perspective. The Bucs aren’t going to suddenly return to the days when Jon Gruden and Bruce Allen regularly shelled out money for big-name players in their 30s. The Bucs started a youth movement three years ago, and there are some parts in place. Now, it’s time for them to supplement those parts. They’ll be active in free agency, but they’ll be focusing on players still in their 20s. They’ll also be focusing on improving the supporting cast of quarterback Josh Freeman, who they believe can become great. Look for them to add a speed receiver, perhaps someone like Mario Manningham (Giants) or Eddie Royal (Broncos). The Bucs also want to improve at running back, where Blount is a one-dimensional power runner. They could look for a pass-catching specialist or opt to look for a complete back who could even replace Blount as the starter. On defense, the Bucs probably will try to upgrade at linebacker. If Barber and/or Talib aren’t back, the Bucs will have to make a move or two at cornerback and probably wouldn’t hesitate to pay big money to someone such as Cortland Finnegan (Titans).

For several months now, I’ve been hearing from a lot of Atlanta Falcons fans that think the team should go hard after New Orleans Saints guard Carl Nicks in free agency.

My standard thinking on that was that I was against the move. Nicks is the best guard in the league and he’s going to cost big money. No doubt the Falcons could use some improved play at guard, but my thinking was conventional. As a general rule, you don’t pay guards huge money. But you do pay big money to left tackles and the Saints have a much bigger need there.

Sam Baker, a 2008 first-round draft pick, hasn’t really worked out. He lost his starting job last season and could be released. I still think the Saints need to do something pretty major at left tackle.

But my thinking on Nicks now has changed. I now say the Falcons should go all out in an attempt to sign Nicks. He’d upgrade the interior of their line and his presence alone probably would make whoever ends up at left tackle a little better.

But that’s not the main reason I think the Falcons should go after Nicks. I think they should do it because they might be able to deliver a knockout punch to their division rivals. With the franchise tag being used on quarterback Drew Brees, the Saints have almost no salary-cap room left. They reportedly have re-worked the contract of defensive end Will Smith. They could re-work the deal of linebacker Jonathan Vilma or they could release him and some other guys could be on their way out the door for cap reasons.

Quite simply, the Saints probably don’t have the cap room to sign Nicks. The same goes for receiver Marques Colston, cornerback Tracy Porter and receiver Robert Meachem as well as some other former role players.

As I wrote last week, this salary-cap situation could end up gutting the Saints as we know them. As long as they have Brees, they’ll remain competitive and they may even remain the class of the NFC South. But the Saints are a team that’s vulnerable right now (and we don’t even know what penalties might come from their “bounty program," but those penalties are likely to be severe).

In a lot of ways, the Saints are sort of on the ropes right now. The Falcons don’t like the Saints and the feeling is mutual. Since the arrival of coach Mike Smith in 2008, Atlanta often has had to play second fiddle to the Saints in the NFC South.

The Saints have won the division two of the past three years and they won the Super Bowl at the end of the 2009 season. The Falcons have been competitive with them, but you’d have to say the Saints have had the upper-hand in the division for most of recent history.

But all that’s going on with the Saints could leave them stumbling a bit. The Falcons are sitting pretty. They’ve got decent cap space and a good team that could be ready to take the next step.

Going out and getting Nicks would only help the Falcons as a team. But, maybe more importantly than strengthening themselves, the Falcons could weaken the Saints.