Michael Crabtree fallout: Target rates telling
May, 25, 2013
May 25
1:15
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
A reach into the NFC West mailbag on this Memorial Day weekend brings us back to the No. 1 topic around here for the past week: receiver Michael Crabtree's recently torn Achilles' tendon and its impact on the San Francisco 49ers' offense.
"One thing I noticed when watching Colin Kaepernick last year was that he seemed to either throw to Crabtree, throw to Vernon Davis or run," Jakob from San Francisco writes. "Could you expand your analysis to see if I'm right? Especially on third down?"
You're right about Crabtree on third down. However, the story was quite different for Davis.
The chart below ranks 49ers players by third-down target rate from Week 11, when Kaepernick made his starting debut, through the Super Bowl. Crabtree leads the way with 26 targets in 64 third-down routes, good for a 40.6 percent target rate. Davis ranked eighth -- last -- with six third-down targets on 61 routes.
Here are the target rates for 49ers players on first and second downs over the same time period (minimum 15 pass routes): Crabtree 37.5, Mario Manningham 32.4, Randy Moss 25.9, Delanie Walker 22.2, Davis 21.6, LaMichael James 20.7, Ted Ginn Jr. 20.0, Garrett Celek 20.0, Bruce Miller 9.4 and Frank Gore 6.8.
The 49ers will need other wide receivers to emerge while Crabtree recovers from surgery. And while Davis will be needed for blocking, the numbers suggest he needs to become a bigger part of the receiving game -- whether or not Crabtree is available.
"One thing I noticed when watching Colin Kaepernick last year was that he seemed to either throw to Crabtree, throw to Vernon Davis or run," Jakob from San Francisco writes. "Could you expand your analysis to see if I'm right? Especially on third down?"
You're right about Crabtree on third down. However, the story was quite different for Davis.
The chart below ranks 49ers players by third-down target rate from Week 11, when Kaepernick made his starting debut, through the Super Bowl. Crabtree leads the way with 26 targets in 64 third-down routes, good for a 40.6 percent target rate. Davis ranked eighth -- last -- with six third-down targets on 61 routes.
Here are the target rates for 49ers players on first and second downs over the same time period (minimum 15 pass routes): Crabtree 37.5, Mario Manningham 32.4, Randy Moss 25.9, Delanie Walker 22.2, Davis 21.6, LaMichael James 20.7, Ted Ginn Jr. 20.0, Garrett Celek 20.0, Bruce Miller 9.4 and Frank Gore 6.8.
The 49ers will need other wide receivers to emerge while Crabtree recovers from surgery. And while Davis will be needed for blocking, the numbers suggest he needs to become a bigger part of the receiving game -- whether or not Crabtree is available.
Defending a running back from criticism has been as simple as blaming defenses for "stacking the box" against him.
It's usually not that simple.
The subject came up here most recently after we considered why the St. Louis Rams had so few "explosive" running plays last season.
Perhaps defenses weren't respecting the Rams' passing game, allowing them to load up against the run. The offensive line could share in the blame. Game situations could have been a factor. And it's always possible Steven Jackson was declining with age.
ESPN's Matt Williamson, writing the appropriately named "Eight in the Box" item for the NFC South blog, noted that Jackson might fare better with the Atlanta Falcons because "he will not be facing stacked boxes down after down" as he had with the Rams.
The subject is begging for analysis, but first we need some information.
Jackson ranked fifth in 2012 rushing yardage against loaded boxes on first and second downs. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry on these runs, a respectable average.
The Seattle Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch led the NFL in total carries against loaded boxes. He ranked second in rushing yards gained in these situations.
The chart at right shows the top 12 players in rushing yards against loaded boxes, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
The chart below ranks 2012 offenses by how frequently they faced loaded-box situations on first and second downs. I removed third and fourth downs to avoid obvious passing situations and most short-yardage situations. The idea was to isolate straightforward running plays. The figures do include quarterback rushes -- nine plays for Seattle, but not a significant number for most teams.
ESPN charts box counts by looking at the "number of defenders at the snap who are within five yards of the line of scrimmage and no further than two yards outside the tackles or outermost player attached to the line" -- excluding defenders following skill players in motion unless those skill players come to a stop while the defender remains in the box. Defenders just outside the box area who are clearly rushing into the box are counted as in the box.
Got that? I'll wait while you read it again.
I'd love to wrap up this item with an air-tight conclusion, but I'm not sure there are guiding principles applying to all teams equally. Different defenses likely have different reasons for loading up against specific opponents in certain situations, with disparate results.
Seattle's opponents stacked the box on 20.1 percent of rushing attempts, the highest rate in the NFL. There could have been other times when Seattle changed plays to a pass in these situations. That could happen more frequently in the future as quarterback Russell Wilson gains experience.
Defenses could have less reason to stack the box against pass-oriented teams with quarterbacks able to exploit numbers advantages down the field. I would have expected the San Francisco 49ers to have faced loaded boxes a higher percentage of the time. However, their frequent use of heavier personnel could have invited a higher number of defenders into the box area without producing a "loaded" situation -- one reason not to assume the frequently referenced "eight in the box" represents a numbers advantage for the defense in every case.
Perhaps you've got some theories. Fire away.
It's usually not that simple.
The subject came up here most recently after we considered why the St. Louis Rams had so few "explosive" running plays last season.
Perhaps defenses weren't respecting the Rams' passing game, allowing them to load up against the run. The offensive line could share in the blame. Game situations could have been a factor. And it's always possible Steven Jackson was declining with age.
ESPN's Matt Williamson, writing the appropriately named "Eight in the Box" item for the NFC South blog, noted that Jackson might fare better with the Atlanta Falcons because "he will not be facing stacked boxes down after down" as he had with the Rams.
The subject is begging for analysis, but first we need some information.
Jackson ranked fifth in 2012 rushing yardage against loaded boxes on first and second downs. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry on these runs, a respectable average.
The Seattle Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch led the NFL in total carries against loaded boxes. He ranked second in rushing yards gained in these situations.
The chart at right shows the top 12 players in rushing yards against loaded boxes, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
The chart below ranks 2012 offenses by how frequently they faced loaded-box situations on first and second downs. I removed third and fourth downs to avoid obvious passing situations and most short-yardage situations. The idea was to isolate straightforward running plays. The figures do include quarterback rushes -- nine plays for Seattle, but not a significant number for most teams.
ESPN charts box counts by looking at the "number of defenders at the snap who are within five yards of the line of scrimmage and no further than two yards outside the tackles or outermost player attached to the line" -- excluding defenders following skill players in motion unless those skill players come to a stop while the defender remains in the box. Defenders just outside the box area who are clearly rushing into the box are counted as in the box.
Got that? I'll wait while you read it again.
I'd love to wrap up this item with an air-tight conclusion, but I'm not sure there are guiding principles applying to all teams equally. Different defenses likely have different reasons for loading up against specific opponents in certain situations, with disparate results.
Seattle's opponents stacked the box on 20.1 percent of rushing attempts, the highest rate in the NFL. There could have been other times when Seattle changed plays to a pass in these situations. That could happen more frequently in the future as quarterback Russell Wilson gains experience.
Defenses could have less reason to stack the box against pass-oriented teams with quarterbacks able to exploit numbers advantages down the field. I would have expected the San Francisco 49ers to have faced loaded boxes a higher percentage of the time. However, their frequent use of heavier personnel could have invited a higher number of defenders into the box area without producing a "loaded" situation -- one reason not to assume the frequently referenced "eight in the box" represents a numbers advantage for the defense in every case.
Perhaps you've got some theories. Fire away.
Fifth-round tight end Luke Willson was one of the more impressive players in rookie camp with the Seattle Seahawks recently.
It's looking like the team will need him.
Anthony McCoy, who started five games and played 45.5 percent of the offensive snaps in 2012 as the second tight end in Seattle's two-tight sets, suffered a torn Achilles' tendon, according to Mike Garafolo of USA Today.
This is not a crushing injury for the Seahawks, but it affects depth. It could put pressure on Willson to develop ahead of schedule for a fifth-round choice. Sean McGrath, Cooper Helfet, Darren Fells and Victor Marshall are the other tight ends on the roster.
Seattle might have been on its way to becoming more of a three-receiver team anyway following Percy Harvin's addition. Teams play with a combination of five running backs, receivers and tight ends on each play, and Seattle would seem to have three wideouts -- Harvin, Sidney Rice and Golden Tate -- good enough to command playing time along with running back Marshawn Lynch and tight end Zach Miller.
The Seahawks had three wide receivers on the field for 32 of the 55 read-option plays they executed during the 2012 regular season and 13 of 23 during the playoffs, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
The chart shows how frequently the Seahawks used their tight ends on first and second downs during the regular season and playoffs, excluding kneel-down plays. There were more snaps with zero or one tight end than with two or more.
McCoy joins the San Francisco 49ers' Michael Crabtree among NFC West players recovering from torn Achilles' tendons suffered during organized team activities (OTAs) this week. Their teams both appear likely to lean on rookie tight ends from Rice to serve as primary backups to established starters. San Francisco used a second-round choice for Vance McDonald after watching Delanie Walker leave in free agency. Willson played with McDonald at Rice and could fill the No. 2 role behind Miller.
It's looking like the team will need him.
Anthony McCoy, who started five games and played 45.5 percent of the offensive snaps in 2012 as the second tight end in Seattle's two-tight sets, suffered a torn Achilles' tendon, according to Mike Garafolo of USA Today.
This is not a crushing injury for the Seahawks, but it affects depth. It could put pressure on Willson to develop ahead of schedule for a fifth-round choice. Sean McGrath, Cooper Helfet, Darren Fells and Victor Marshall are the other tight ends on the roster.
Seattle might have been on its way to becoming more of a three-receiver team anyway following Percy Harvin's addition. Teams play with a combination of five running backs, receivers and tight ends on each play, and Seattle would seem to have three wideouts -- Harvin, Sidney Rice and Golden Tate -- good enough to command playing time along with running back Marshawn Lynch and tight end Zach Miller.
The Seahawks had three wide receivers on the field for 32 of the 55 read-option plays they executed during the 2012 regular season and 13 of 23 during the playoffs, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
The chart shows how frequently the Seahawks used their tight ends on first and second downs during the regular season and playoffs, excluding kneel-down plays. There were more snaps with zero or one tight end than with two or more.
McCoy joins the San Francisco 49ers' Michael Crabtree among NFC West players recovering from torn Achilles' tendons suffered during organized team activities (OTAs) this week. Their teams both appear likely to lean on rookie tight ends from Rice to serve as primary backups to established starters. San Francisco used a second-round choice for Vance McDonald after watching Delanie Walker leave in free agency. Willson played with McDonald at Rice and could fill the No. 2 role behind Miller.
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How does each NFC West team look at running back, and what still needs to be done?
Arizona Cardinals: This is a transitional year at the position for Arizona. Free-agent addition Rashard Mendenhall gets a shot to revive his career following a disappointing finish with the Pittsburgh Steelers. He's familiar with Bruce Arians' offense, giving him a head start over the competition. Ryan Williams has a shot at the job, too, but he's been injured and recently admitted to playing scared last season while trying to protect his surgically repaired knee. General manager Steve Keim was a huge fan of the speed and cutting ability Williams offered coming out of college, but knee and shoulder injuries have taken a significant toll. Can Williams bounce back? Arians wants his backs versatile enough to play on third down as well. The team used a 2013 fifth-round choice for Stanford career rushing leader Stepfan Taylor with that in mind.
St. Louis Rams: Youth will be served in the Rams' offensive backfield now that Steven Jackson has left in free agency. The Rams could have kept Jackson, but they let him out of his contract with an eye toward building a younger roster. Rookie fifth-round pick Zac Stacy will get every chance to earn a prominent role on early downs. Isaiah Pead, a second-round choice in 2012, projects as more of a change-of-pace back. Daryl Richardson, a seventh-rounder last year, should also figure into the mix. The Rams anticipated moving forward from Jackson with a committee setup. It's an upset if one of the backs on the roster commands a huge majority of the carries. The Rams have assumed more of a fast-break look at the skill positions without Jackson as an offensive centerpiece.
San Francisco 49ers: Frank Gore remains the primary back at age 30 after holding up physically through a 19-game season in 2012. The 49ers have set up themselves for life after Gore by drafting Kendall Hunter, LaMichael James and Marcus Lattimore in recent seasons. The position has obviously been a priority for San Francisco. The 49ers know what the numbers say about running backs declining in their late 20s. Gore has resisted the trend to this point and doesn't seem to be declining. Meanwhile, the dynamics behind Gore are fluid. Hunter could remain the No. 2 back if he can bounce back from ACL surgery, but James demonstrated during the playoffs why he should factor as well. Lattimore, a fourth-round pick this year, will get the full 2013 season to recover from a career-threatening knee injury suffered in college. This amounts to a redshirt year for him.
Seattle Seahawks: Marshawn Lynch blows off postgame interviews, shows up for the Seahawks' offseason program at his leisure and has a DUI case pending in the courts. He is even tougher to tackle on the field. The Seahawks know they have a great thing going with the hard-charging Lynch -- for as long as it lasts. They've been hedging their bets for two years running. Robert Turbin, a fourth-round choice in 2012, fits the power mold and has a promising future. The same goes for 2013 second-rounder Christine Michael. And if those picks weren't enough, Seattle used a 2013 sixth-rounder for Spencer Ware, who projects as a combination halfback/fullback. Lynch is arguably the best back in the division. Michael's addition gives the Seahawks outstanding young depth, too.
How does each NFC West team look at running back, and what still needs to be done?
Arizona Cardinals: This is a transitional year at the position for Arizona. Free-agent addition Rashard Mendenhall gets a shot to revive his career following a disappointing finish with the Pittsburgh Steelers. He's familiar with Bruce Arians' offense, giving him a head start over the competition. Ryan Williams has a shot at the job, too, but he's been injured and recently admitted to playing scared last season while trying to protect his surgically repaired knee. General manager Steve Keim was a huge fan of the speed and cutting ability Williams offered coming out of college, but knee and shoulder injuries have taken a significant toll. Can Williams bounce back? Arians wants his backs versatile enough to play on third down as well. The team used a 2013 fifth-round choice for Stanford career rushing leader Stepfan Taylor with that in mind.
St. Louis Rams: Youth will be served in the Rams' offensive backfield now that Steven Jackson has left in free agency. The Rams could have kept Jackson, but they let him out of his contract with an eye toward building a younger roster. Rookie fifth-round pick Zac Stacy will get every chance to earn a prominent role on early downs. Isaiah Pead, a second-round choice in 2012, projects as more of a change-of-pace back. Daryl Richardson, a seventh-rounder last year, should also figure into the mix. The Rams anticipated moving forward from Jackson with a committee setup. It's an upset if one of the backs on the roster commands a huge majority of the carries. The Rams have assumed more of a fast-break look at the skill positions without Jackson as an offensive centerpiece.
San Francisco 49ers: Frank Gore remains the primary back at age 30 after holding up physically through a 19-game season in 2012. The 49ers have set up themselves for life after Gore by drafting Kendall Hunter, LaMichael James and Marcus Lattimore in recent seasons. The position has obviously been a priority for San Francisco. The 49ers know what the numbers say about running backs declining in their late 20s. Gore has resisted the trend to this point and doesn't seem to be declining. Meanwhile, the dynamics behind Gore are fluid. Hunter could remain the No. 2 back if he can bounce back from ACL surgery, but James demonstrated during the playoffs why he should factor as well. Lattimore, a fourth-round pick this year, will get the full 2013 season to recover from a career-threatening knee injury suffered in college. This amounts to a redshirt year for him.
Seattle Seahawks: Marshawn Lynch blows off postgame interviews, shows up for the Seahawks' offseason program at his leisure and has a DUI case pending in the courts. He is even tougher to tackle on the field. The Seahawks know they have a great thing going with the hard-charging Lynch -- for as long as it lasts. They've been hedging their bets for two years running. Robert Turbin, a fourth-round choice in 2012, fits the power mold and has a promising future. The same goes for 2013 second-rounder Christine Michael. And if those picks weren't enough, Seattle used a 2013 sixth-rounder for Spencer Ware, who projects as a combination halfback/fullback. Lynch is arguably the best back in the division. Michael's addition gives the Seahawks outstanding young depth, too.
Seth from New Orleans recently hit the NFC West mailbag with a question seeking clarification for recent items regarding what Michael Crabtree's injury will mean to the San Francisco 49ers. He thinks some of my analysis appeared contradictory, but I'm pretty confident we can bridge what Seth sees as a potential gap in logic.
On the one hand, I suggested losing Crabtree could be significant to the division race, particularly with the Seattle Seahawks adding Percy Harvin. On the other hand, I said Colin Kaepernick, not Crabtree, would be the key to the 49ers' season.
"Granted, Crabtree is a different type of receiver, but you do say Harvin's impact on the Seahawks could easily be huge," Seth writes. "How can the Seahawks gaining a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver make such a big impact, yet San Francisco losing a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver will have not much effect at all?
"Is this your way of saying you believe that Kaepernick is a better and more important QB for the 49ers than Russell Wilson is for the Seahawks?"
Not at all. Both teams are similarly dependent on their quarterbacks. Neither would fare very well with its backup quarterback starting for an extended period.
It's just that adding Harvin to Seattle while subtracting Crabtree from the 49ers represents a net change significant enough to affect a very close NFC West race. Also, I think Harvin is more dynamic than Crabtree even though Crabtree produced better receiving stats last season.
Matt Williamson, who scouts the NFL for ESPN.com, put it this way during our recent receiver rankings: "I'll take Harvin every day over Crabtree and that is not a knock on Crabtree. Harvin is more dynamic, more versatile. He frightens defenses way more. You can do so much more with him. He has big-play ability and is just a better football player. When I rank the wide receivers in this division, it goes Larry [Fitzgerald], Harvin and Crabtree, but Harvin is closer to 'Fitz' than Crabtree is to Harvin."
Even so, losing Harvin would not crush the Seahawks' chances in 2013. The team already was very good without him. A healthy Harvin will make them better. If an injury were to fell Harvin, I would acknowledge its significance to a close NFC West race while noting that the Seahawks' season was going to hinge on Wilson to a much greater degree.
On the one hand, I suggested losing Crabtree could be significant to the division race, particularly with the Seattle Seahawks adding Percy Harvin. On the other hand, I said Colin Kaepernick, not Crabtree, would be the key to the 49ers' season.
"Granted, Crabtree is a different type of receiver, but you do say Harvin's impact on the Seahawks could easily be huge," Seth writes. "How can the Seahawks gaining a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver make such a big impact, yet San Francisco losing a Pro Bowl-caliber receiver will have not much effect at all?
"Is this your way of saying you believe that Kaepernick is a better and more important QB for the 49ers than Russell Wilson is for the Seahawks?"
Not at all. Both teams are similarly dependent on their quarterbacks. Neither would fare very well with its backup quarterback starting for an extended period.
It's just that adding Harvin to Seattle while subtracting Crabtree from the 49ers represents a net change significant enough to affect a very close NFC West race. Also, I think Harvin is more dynamic than Crabtree even though Crabtree produced better receiving stats last season.
Matt Williamson, who scouts the NFL for ESPN.com, put it this way during our recent receiver rankings: "I'll take Harvin every day over Crabtree and that is not a knock on Crabtree. Harvin is more dynamic, more versatile. He frightens defenses way more. You can do so much more with him. He has big-play ability and is just a better football player. When I rank the wide receivers in this division, it goes Larry [Fitzgerald], Harvin and Crabtree, but Harvin is closer to 'Fitz' than Crabtree is to Harvin."
Even so, losing Harvin would not crush the Seahawks' chances in 2013. The team already was very good without him. A healthy Harvin will make them better. If an injury were to fell Harvin, I would acknowledge its significance to a close NFC West race while noting that the Seahawks' season was going to hinge on Wilson to a much greater degree.
Good morning, NFC West. We're heading into this Memorial Day Weekend with no shortage of subject material.
All four teams from the division have been conducting organized team activity (OTA) sessions this week. The St. Louis Rams have a session scheduled for Friday.
A piece from Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News caught my attention. Inman followed up with San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick and receiver Ricardo Lockette regarding their relationship on and off the field -- a relationship of heightened interest now that Michael Crabtree's injury has put pressure on other wideouts to fill the void.
Seattle Seahawks fans should recall Lockette as the physically gifted prospect who teased them with 61- and 44-yard receptions against NFC West opponents late during the 2011 season. Lockette never showed enough consistency to nail down a position in the receiving rotation. But his raw talent led the 49ers to sign him for their practice squad and eventually the regular roster once Seattle released him.
Lockette's chances for success have never appeared greater. He's living with Kaepernick and, by all accounts, the two are focusing on football all the time. Coach Jim Harbaugh offered unsolicited praise for Lockette a couple months ago, predicting the receiver would make an impact.
"Lockette, 27, has spent the past eight months getting round-the-clock tutoring from Kaepernick, including two months this offseason as they trained in Atlanta with teammates A.J. Jenkins and Chad Hall," Inman reports. "Kaepernick also has found creative ways to help Lockette assimilate with the 49ers' vast and complex playbook, and that includes word association for breaking down plays."
NFL offseasons lend themselves to stories about fringe players trying to make their mark. Few of those fringe players are living with their team's franchise quarterbacks. Few command unsolicited praise from their head coaches. Lockette will never have a better chance than this, most likely.
Updating Rams' search for 'explosive' plays
May, 23, 2013
May 23
8:20
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Quarterback Sam Bradford pointed to team speed when asked what the St. Louis Rams' offense offers for 2013.
"We're much faster now," Bradford told reporters in St. Louis on Thursday. "I think we’re all hoping that’s going to lead to more explosive plays."
There is no set way to define an explosive play. However, some in the NFL define them as pass receptions for at least 16 yards and rushes for at least 12 yards. The chart at the bottom of this post shows where the Rams ranked among NFL teams by those measures: 27th in total explosive plays.
"I think if you look at our offense in the past, we’ve really had to grind out touchdown drives because we haven’t been able to create those explosive plays," Bradford said. "You take some of the guys that we have on the field now and they can turn a 5-yard hitch route into an 80-yard touchdown."
The numbers suggest the Rams weren't faring so poorly in terms of total receptions covering at least 16 yards. They suggest the Rams really needed a boost in explosive rushing plays. Young backs Zac Stacy, Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson should provide fresh legs in the Rams' first season since 2003 without Steven Jackson.
Last season, the Rams ranked tied for fifth in plays at least 50 yards, as the chart above shows. They had eight, three off the NFL lead. Receiver Chris Givens, a rookie in 2012, had five of them for the Rams. He ranked sixth among qualifying wide receivers in yards after catch per reception (6.8) and total yards per reception (16.6). However, no other wide receiver on the team ranked higher than 40th in either category.
The Rams this offseason have added Tavon Austin in the first round of the draft and Jared Cook in free agency, among others.
"It's going to allow us to open up the playbook probably a little bit more," Bradford said. "Just with their speed, we can get creative, figure out how we’re going to use them. But I think the big thing is we’re still trying to figure out how to best use everyone’s abilities that we have now."
"We're much faster now," Bradford told reporters in St. Louis on Thursday. "I think we’re all hoping that’s going to lead to more explosive plays."
There is no set way to define an explosive play. However, some in the NFL define them as pass receptions for at least 16 yards and rushes for at least 12 yards. The chart at the bottom of this post shows where the Rams ranked among NFL teams by those measures: 27th in total explosive plays.
"I think if you look at our offense in the past, we’ve really had to grind out touchdown drives because we haven’t been able to create those explosive plays," Bradford said. "You take some of the guys that we have on the field now and they can turn a 5-yard hitch route into an 80-yard touchdown."
The numbers suggest the Rams weren't faring so poorly in terms of total receptions covering at least 16 yards. They suggest the Rams really needed a boost in explosive rushing plays. Young backs Zac Stacy, Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson should provide fresh legs in the Rams' first season since 2003 without Steven Jackson.
Last season, the Rams ranked tied for fifth in plays at least 50 yards, as the chart above shows. They had eight, three off the NFL lead. Receiver Chris Givens, a rookie in 2012, had five of them for the Rams. He ranked sixth among qualifying wide receivers in yards after catch per reception (6.8) and total yards per reception (16.6). However, no other wide receiver on the team ranked higher than 40th in either category.
The Rams this offseason have added Tavon Austin in the first round of the draft and Jared Cook in free agency, among others.
"It's going to allow us to open up the playbook probably a little bit more," Bradford said. "Just with their speed, we can get creative, figure out how we’re going to use them. But I think the big thing is we’re still trying to figure out how to best use everyone’s abilities that we have now."
The one-game NFL suspension recently levied against St. Louis Rams guard Rokevious Watkins looked like the latest setback in his attempt to win over the team's coaching staff.
WatkinsAfter all, Watkins had reported to training camp overweight as a rookie last year. He then suffered a season-ending injury in September. Drawing a suspension under the NFL's substance-abuse policy was another strike against him.
But with coach Jeff Fisher speaking out on Watkins' behalf Thursday, the second-year guard could find himself on firmer ground.
"I'm not going to go into specifics of the suspension," Fisher told reporters in St. Louis. "We respect the league's decision, but personally and respectfully, I disagree with the suspension and the circumstances regarding the suspension."
Watkins couldn't find a better advocate than his head coach in such a situation. The fact that Watkins avoided a longer suspension and that his head coach is contesting even a one-game ban separates his case from most, indicating special circumstances were in play.

But with coach Jeff Fisher speaking out on Watkins' behalf Thursday, the second-year guard could find himself on firmer ground.
"I'm not going to go into specifics of the suspension," Fisher told reporters in St. Louis. "We respect the league's decision, but personally and respectfully, I disagree with the suspension and the circumstances regarding the suspension."
Watkins couldn't find a better advocate than his head coach in such a situation. The fact that Watkins avoided a longer suspension and that his head coach is contesting even a one-game ban separates his case from most, indicating special circumstances were in play.
Cards' main risk protection in Mathieu deal
May, 23, 2013
May 23
6:30
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Tyrann Mathieu's new contract with the Arizona Cardinals is making headlines for the financial particulars.
These particulars mean a great deal to the people directly involved in negotiations. Agents, team negotiators and Mathieu himself have a stake in conditions attached to the reported $662,500 in bonus money available to the cornerback from LSU.
The Cardinals were naturally going to seek risk protection in negotiating a contract with Mathieu, whose admitted problems with marijuana led to his banishment from the LSU program. However, we shouldn't let the allocation of several hundred thousand dollars in bonus money distract us from the most important risk protection of all: waiting until the third round before making Mathieu the 69th player chosen in the draft.
At best, Mathieu can reportedly earn about $3 million over four seasons. Multiple players no longer on the Cardinals' roster are counting at least $3 million against the team's salary cap in 2013 alone. Mathieu's contract means little to the Cardinals in that context. How the money is structured matters to the extent that it gives Mathieu incentive to stay clean. To what extent is that? Perhaps only Mathieu knows, but precedent invites skepticism.
For example, Mathieu's new teammate Daryl Washington recently incurred a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's policy on substance abuse. He had a $10 million option bonus potentially in the balance.
If falling to the third round wasn't enough to catch Mathieu's attention, the conditions attached to a few hundred grand weren't going to make the difference, were they? The way I see it, the most meaningful protections were built in on draft day and through the NFL's team-friendly rookie contract structure.
Harry How/Getty ImagesWhile losing Michael Crabtree will surely hurt the 49ers, it will be Colin Kaepernick's play that will determine San Francisco's success.Bill Barnwell drives home that point in his latest piece for Grantland, one calling into question how the 49ers will recover from Michael Crabtree's injury.
The piece also touched upon a subject we've discussed in some detail around here: Crabtree's improved production with Colin Kaepernick at quarterback.
"Crabtree and Kaepernick, they have that swagger," Jerry Rice observed during Super Bowl week. "It's how they go out, how they play, the energy on the football field. If they are making plays, Crabtree is always talking noise at the defender or something like that.
"You can see the swagger; you can see the confidence."
Thanks to the chart, you can see Crabtree's production spiking when Kaepernick, not Alex Smith, was the one targeting him. Kaepernick attempted 298 passes last season, counting playoffs. Smith attempted 218 passes, all during the regular season (Kaepernick also had 218 regular-season attempts). The increased production for Crabtree was about more than additional opportunities. It was about Kaepernick and Crabtree maximizing them.
Crabtree's injury hurts, no question, but quarterbacks are far more important to overall team success. That is what the information in the chart is telling us.
Kaepernick, not Crabtree, remains the key for San Francisco. He was the key to unleashing Crabtree. He will be the key to maximizing other weapons as well.
As Barnwell notes, Anquan Boldin's playoff production for the Baltimore Ravens wasn't representative of his production with the team previously. We might naturally assume that Boldin, now with San Francisco, won't produce those kinds of numbers with the 49ers. We might logically expect a regression.
However, the change in Boldin's production during the postseason reflects dramatically improved play from quarterback Joe Flacco, who had been ordinary until the postseason. Flacco posted a 46.8 Total QBR score during the 2012 regular season. That was below the 50-point average for NFL quarterbacks. His regular-season QBR since 2010 was only 55.4, barely above average. The figure rocketed to 83.6 during the most recent postseason, indicating Flacco suddenly began playing at an MVP level.
Kaepernick's QBR score was at 76.8 during the regular season and 86.5 during the playoffs.
So, unless Kaepernick suddenly turns into what Flacco had been previously -- an average starting quarterback -- the 49ers should be able to get more from Boldin than the Ravens got from him during most of his tenure with the team.
Maintaining the pace Boldin set during the playoffs could be unrealistic, but an improvement from his regular-season stats sounds reasonable.
We should also expect the relationship between Kaepernick and tight end Vernon Davis to grow, especially without second tight end Delanie Walker siphoning off receptions periodically. Davis' rapport with Smith was well established. There's no reason Kaepernick and Davis can't build something similar, particularly now that they know their relationship is more important than ever.
Davis had three 100-yard receiving games last season. Two came during the playoffs, both with Kaepernick at quarterback. Kaepernick was the 49ers' quarterback for three of the four games in which Davis had at least 75 yards receiving.
Elsewhere in the division last season, we saw Russell Wilson get the most from Sidney Rice and Golden Tate, who had previously been underwhelming for Seattle. We saw Larry Fitzgerald's production slip with third-string quarterbacks in the Arizona Cardinals' lineup.
Every organization dreads serious injuries. Sometimes, the personnel people working for the really good ones get excited when an injury opens the way for unproven players to get an opportunity.
The 49ers will find out this season what 2012 first-round receiver A.J. Jenkins can offer them right now. They'll get a look this offseason at Ricardo Lockette, a player coach Jim Harbaugh thinks has a future in the league. Rookie fourth-rounder Quinton Patton might get a shot, too.
On the bright side, Crabtree could return from his torn Achilles' tendon late in the season.
The 49ers could consider veteran help in the interim. I would not expect them to panic. Re-signing Randy Moss wouldn't make a great deal of sense in the bigger picture, for example. He's old, declining and doesn't fill the role Crabtree filled on the team. Some of the 49ers' thinking could depend upon where Mario Manningham stands in his recovery from knee surgery.
Crabtree was important. The 49ers' other receiving targets are important. The margin for error has diminished for San Francisco. But we shouldn't lose sight of what matters most. Kaepernick is the key. Quarterbacks almost always are.
Closer look: Defensive starter projections
May, 23, 2013
May 23
11:20
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
We interrupt ongoing coverage of Michael Crabtree's surgically repaired Achilles tendon to continue our recent discussion on average ages for projected 2013 NFL starting lineups.
Offense went first. Defense is up next.
The chart ranks teams by average ages for defensive starters.
I've recalculated the numbers and you can see just how close some of them are -- indistinguishable, in some cases. One change to the projected starting lineup could affect the order by several places.
The way the ages are calculated -- number of days since birth divided by 365.25 to account for leap years, then rounded down to the tenth of a year and averaged -- can cause slight changes to the order from one day to the next. That happened with the defenses for New England and Baltimore over the past couple days, for example. They actually switched places from a couple days back because the calculation for Tommy Kelly's age changed from 32.3 to 32.4.
For that reason, I'm more interested in the extremes from one end of the rankings to the next. A few spots here or there? No big deal.
The gradual changes add up through the range of teams, and we can see why the Chicago Bears weren't all that excited about bringing back Brian Urlacher to a defense that has the oldest starting linebackers without him.
A few thoughts on the defensive numbers for NFC West teams:
Offense went first. Defense is up next.
The chart ranks teams by average ages for defensive starters.
I've recalculated the numbers and you can see just how close some of them are -- indistinguishable, in some cases. One change to the projected starting lineup could affect the order by several places.
The way the ages are calculated -- number of days since birth divided by 365.25 to account for leap years, then rounded down to the tenth of a year and averaged -- can cause slight changes to the order from one day to the next. That happened with the defenses for New England and Baltimore over the past couple days, for example. They actually switched places from a couple days back because the calculation for Tommy Kelly's age changed from 32.3 to 32.4.
For that reason, I'm more interested in the extremes from one end of the rankings to the next. A few spots here or there? No big deal.
The gradual changes add up through the range of teams, and we can see why the Chicago Bears weren't all that excited about bringing back Brian Urlacher to a defense that has the oldest starting linebackers without him.
A few thoughts on the defensive numbers for NFC West teams:
- Arizona Cardinals: Arizona released veteran safeties Adrian Wilson and Kerry Rhodes primarily to shed their contracts. Had getting younger been the priority, Arizona wouldn't have signed 35-year-old Yeremiah Bell as a replacement. His presence on the roster pushes up the average age in the secondary. Parting with Paris Lenon, 35, made the Cardinals younger at linebacker. This team had too many older backups in the past, I thought. That is changing. Note that the Cardinals had the NFL's third-oldest starting defense entering the 2010 season. That group averaged 29.3 years old. The current one averages 27.8 even with Karlos Dansby projecting as a starter over Kevin Minter. I listed Dansby and Daryl Washington as the starters at inside linebacker despite the four-game suspension Washington must serve to open the season.
- San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers had the NFL's oldest starting defensive line last season. That will not be the case in 2013 now that Isaac Sopoaga left in free agency. Replacing Sopoaga and free safety Dashon Goldson with younger players has brought down the 49ers' average age across the defensive lineup. And if the draft secured an eventual successor for 33-year-old Justin Smith, the 49ers should be set up on defense for years to come. Note that strong safety Donte Whitner is entering his eighth season, but he won't turn 28 until July.
- St. Louis Rams: The Rams own the second-youngest projected starting defense in the NFL. Their starting defensive backs, defensive linemen and linebackers all rank among the NFL's five youngest at their position groups. That is much younger than the Rams were on defense a few years ago. The biggest question initially is whether the Rams' young safeties, including rookie third-round draft choice T.J. McDonald, are ready to play prominent roles. Signing a veteran safety for insurance could make some sense, but this is looking like a season when youth will be served throughout nearly all the Rams' roster, save for portions of the offensive line. There's much to like about a young defensive front featuring Michael Brockers, Robert Quinn and veteran Chris Long.
- Seattle Seahawks: There was some projecting at work in putting together a lineup for Seattle. I plugged in Malcolm Smith at linebacker and went with a defensive line featuring Red Bryant, Tony McDaniel, Brandon Mebane and Cliff Avril. That line would hardly be ancient, but it would rank among the older third of projected starting lines. Bruce Irvin's suspension and Chris Clemons' knee injury limit the options. We could see rookie Jesse Williams at defensive tackle over McDaniel, who has mostly been a rotation player. The Seahawks would have the youngest projected starting linebackers in the league if Smith joined Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright in the lineup. The starting secondary ranks seventh youngest. However, nickel corner Antoine Winfield is 35 years old and could wind up playing half the snaps, or more.
Our recent item looking at Week 1 dynamics for NFC West teams requires a significant update.
The injury San Francisco 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree suffered Tuesday immediately invited questions about the impact for 2013 and beyond. Let's consider first things first: the impact for the 49ers against the Green Bay Packers in Week 1.
Crabtree caught 16 passes for 195 yards and two touchdowns in two games against the Packers last season, counting playoffs.
No other player in the NFL caught as many passes against Green Bay last season. Not the Detroit Lions' Calvin Johnson (15) in two games nor any of the Minnesota Vikings players who faced the Packers three times.
Crabtree's two touchdown receptions against the Packers tied for the NFL high last season. The Vikings' Michael Jenkins and the Seattle Seahawks' Golden Tate also had two, and if memory serves, one of those was hotly contested.
The 49ers' Colin Kaepernick (94.7) and Alex Smith (83.5) posted two of the four highest single-game Total QBR scores for any starting quarterback against the Packers last season. They lit up Green Bay, and Crabtree played a prominent role, especially when Kaepernick was the quarterback in the team's divisional-round playoff game at Candlestick Park.
The injury San Francisco 49ers receiver Michael Crabtree suffered Tuesday immediately invited questions about the impact for 2013 and beyond. Let's consider first things first: the impact for the 49ers against the Green Bay Packers in Week 1.
Crabtree caught 16 passes for 195 yards and two touchdowns in two games against the Packers last season, counting playoffs.
No other player in the NFL caught as many passes against Green Bay last season. Not the Detroit Lions' Calvin Johnson (15) in two games nor any of the Minnesota Vikings players who faced the Packers three times.
Crabtree's two touchdown receptions against the Packers tied for the NFL high last season. The Vikings' Michael Jenkins and the Seattle Seahawks' Golden Tate also had two, and if memory serves, one of those was hotly contested.
The 49ers' Colin Kaepernick (94.7) and Alex Smith (83.5) posted two of the four highest single-game Total QBR scores for any starting quarterback against the Packers last season. They lit up Green Bay, and Crabtree played a prominent role, especially when Kaepernick was the quarterback in the team's divisional-round playoff game at Candlestick Park.
So much has gone down since our last NFC West chat one week ago.
Suspensions for Bruce Irvin and Rokevious Watkins. A not-guilty plea from Daryl Washington. Michael Crabtree's torn Achilles' tendon. News that Cliff Avril is suffering from a foot injury.
The NFC West sky isn't falling, but the ceiling feels a little lower. We'll discuss some of the implications when the next chat begins at 1 p.m. ET Thursday.
Here's the link.
Suspensions for Bruce Irvin and Rokevious Watkins. A not-guilty plea from Daryl Washington. Michael Crabtree's torn Achilles' tendon. News that Cliff Avril is suffering from a foot injury.
The NFC West sky isn't falling, but the ceiling feels a little lower. We'll discuss some of the implications when the next chat begins at 1 p.m. ET Thursday.
Here's the link.
A few notes from ESPN Stats & Information's Jason Vida regarding Michael Crabtree after the San Francisco 49ers receiver -- Crabtree, not Vida -- underwent surgery to repair a torn Achilles' tendon:
- Go-to guy: 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick threw eight touchdown passes with one interception last season when targeting Crabtree. He had one touchdown pass with four picks when targeting other wide receivers. Those figures count playoffs. Kaepernick targeted Crabtree on 39.6 percent of the receiver's pass routes from Weeks 11-17, the second-highest figure in the NFL over that span (Brandon Marshall, 44.2). Counting playoffs, Kaepernick targeted Crabtree more than three times as frequently as he targeted any other 49ers player on third down and in the red zone.
- On the rise: Crabtree's stats have improved each season. He had 85 receptions last season, up from 72, 55 and 48, previously. He had 1,105 yards, up from 874, 741 and 625. His nine touchdowns were three fewer than what he caught in his first three seasons combined. The first-year totals suffered because Crabtree missed games during a contract dispute.
- 100-yard games: Crabtree has five 100-yard performances in his past eight games, counting playoffs. He had four such performances in his first 55 games.
The St. Louis Rams hoped 2012 fifth-round draft choice Rokevious Watkins would compete for a starting job at guard last season.
Watkins reported to training camp overweight, then suffered a season-ending ankle injury. His second shot at winning a starting job took a hit Wednesday when the NFL announced Watkins would serve a one-game suspension for violating its policy on substance abuse.
Watkins becomes the third NFC West player hit with a suspension recently. Arizona's Daryl Washington and Seattle's Bruce Irvin will serve four-game suspensions to open the season.
Suspended players remain eligible to practice and play in preseason games. Watkins is competing with Shelley Smith, Chris Williams and Barrett Jones, among others, for playing time at left guard. Smith would be the favorite to start based on 2012 performance.
Watkins' grip on a roster spot appears tenuous.
Watkins reported to training camp overweight, then suffered a season-ending ankle injury. His second shot at winning a starting job took a hit Wednesday when the NFL announced Watkins would serve a one-game suspension for violating its policy on substance abuse.
Watkins becomes the third NFC West player hit with a suspension recently. Arizona's Daryl Washington and Seattle's Bruce Irvin will serve four-game suspensions to open the season.
Suspended players remain eligible to practice and play in preseason games. Watkins is competing with Shelley Smith, Chris Williams and Barrett Jones, among others, for playing time at left guard. Smith would be the favorite to start based on 2012 performance.
Watkins' grip on a roster spot appears tenuous.

What does Michael Crabtree's Achilles injury do to the 49ers' Super Bowl hopes? Will Anquan Boldin help fill the void with a 1,000-yard season?
