NFC West: NFL
Here's the link. I'll be heading over momentarily.
In the meantime, I'm hoping to post a followup item comparing Vernon Davis to other NFC West tight ends based on production last season.
The race is on.
In the meantime, I'm hoping to post a followup item comparing Vernon Davis to other NFC West tight ends based on production last season.
The race is on.
George Koonce's recent guest column opened eyes to issues NFL players face upon leaving the game.
The former Green Bay and Seattle linebacker used research and personal experience to illustrate costs associated with investing disproportionately in their football identities.
Koonce's column also warned against jumping to conclusions over what role concussions might have played in the suicides that claimed Junior Seau and Dave Duerson. Daniel Engber's piece for Slate.com, published a week ago, drives home the message and is worth a read for those interested in continuing the discussion. Among his points:
Improving player safety should remain a priority, of course. Erring on the side of safety beats taking undue risks. Concussions remain a serious issue, but how serious are they relative to other risk factors facing NFL players? That is the question. The more we learn from Koonce and others, the better. It is possible the concussion issue is peaking, just as the steroid issue did years before. Engber draws that comparison as well.
The former Green Bay and Seattle linebacker used research and personal experience to illustrate costs associated with investing disproportionately in their football identities.
Koonce's column also warned against jumping to conclusions over what role concussions might have played in the suicides that claimed Junior Seau and Dave Duerson. Daniel Engber's piece for Slate.com, published a week ago, drives home the message and is worth a read for those interested in continuing the discussion. Among his points:
"Just a handful of cases so far support the notion that repeated head injuries (concussive or otherwise) can lead to drug abuse, aggression, and self-harm. No one knows the baseline rate of chronic traumatic encephalopathy among athletes, let alone the general population. No one knows whether the pathological signs of CTE -- microscopic spots in the brain, found after death -- relate to behavioral symptoms like dementia and depression. And no one can explain how repeated knocks to the head might produce CTE, or how CTE might produce suicidal thoughts. Yet in spite of our near-total ignorance, a moral panic has taken hold: Elaborate explanations are concocted when simple ones will do. Faced with the regrettable facts -- a troubled man dies a lonely death -- we resort to hocus-pocus theorizing about tau proteins and fibrillary tangles. It's a form of denial: By obsessing over hidden trauma, we ignore what's right in front of us. Many ex-NFL players have sad and difficult lives."
Improving player safety should remain a priority, of course. Erring on the side of safety beats taking undue risks. Concussions remain a serious issue, but how serious are they relative to other risk factors facing NFL players? That is the question. The more we learn from Koonce and others, the better. It is possible the concussion issue is peaking, just as the steroid issue did years before. Engber draws that comparison as well.
Guest column: Surviving life after the NFL
May, 15, 2012
May 15
3:20
PM ET
By George Koonce | Special to ESPN.com
ESPN.com IllustrationFormer NFL linebacker George Koonce has spent the past several years examining the emotional effect of retiring from football.I had a wonderful wife, beautiful children, money in the bank and a Super Bowl ring back on that day in 2003 when my post-NFL transition took my Chevy Suburban around a 25-mph corner at three times the posted speed.
Whatever happened that day was going to happen. I didn't really care.
By the grace of God, I survived what was, in retrospect, a suicide attempt. But paramedics weren't going to cart me off. No chance. The football tough guy in me refused to get into that ambulance. My wife, Tunisia, drove me to the hospital and saved my life with words, not medicine.
"George," she said, "I don't understand what you are going through, but I sympathize. We cannot reinvent who you are, but we can redefine who you are."
Thanks to Tunisia, that car crash in North Carolina was a turning point. I would seek counseling, join a church and continue my education with the goal of becoming an athletic director. Tunisia even insisted I continue my education while she bravely fought the breast cancer that would ultimately claim her life in 2009.
The day Junior Seau committed suicide was also the day I submitted to Marquette University my doctoral dissertation on the difficulties NFL players face in transitioning away from the game. While it's fashionable to blame concussions for Junior's early demise, and it's certainly possible brain trauma played a role, the adjustment to life after football came to my mind immediately.
[+] Enlarge
Jonathan Daniel/Allsport/Getty ImagesAfter spending nine years in the NFL, former linebacker George Koonce felt directionless upon his retirement.
Jonathan Daniel/Allsport/Getty ImagesAfter spending nine years in the NFL, former linebacker George Koonce felt directionless upon his retirement.Football is different from other major sports in that way. Hard work and dedication cannot make you a 7-foot-1 center in the NBA, but it can help a 6-foot-2 linebacker go from 205 to 245 pounds while gaining speed and athleticism. That was the path I followed from undrafted prospect at East Carolina to NFL starting lineups from 1992 to 2000.
I played nine years in the NFL and one in NFL Europe and didn't have any concussions on record. But I did have suicidal thoughts in my first year away from the game. Not all of us suffered concussions, but all of us are going to go through the transition. And if you're like most players, you've spent most of your life focusing on the next play, the next quarter, the next half, the next game, the next offseason.
Look at Dave Duerson. There are more than 200,000 living alums from Notre Dame. Some run major corporations around the world. Becoming a Notre Dame trustee would be a dream for them. Duerson was a trustee at Notre Dame, not only because he was a good football player at one time but because of his business acumen and his dedication to being one of the best safeties in the league. And when that went away, and with the culmination of the concussions he had suffered, he ended his life.
Notice that we're not reading about NBA greats killing themselves. But we have someone like Seau, who might have been the best inside linebacker to ever put on a uniform, and that is what he did on May 2.
I'm not downplaying basketball careers or the work NBA players put in, but in the NFL you have to be obsessed with the role to make it. ("Role engulfment" is the academic term for it.) There are no prodigies in the NFL. There are no Hakeem Olajuwons who show up at the University of Houston from Nigeria and suddenly become the first pick in the draft. In football, you can have someone like my former teammate Desmond Howard win the Heisman Trophy and become Super Bowl MVP after everyone told him he was too small, too short and too slow. He has a heart the size of Wisconsin and simply will not quit.
You say, "You know what, I'm going to prove Peter King wrong or Chris Berman wrong or my childhood friend who said I couldn't make it." So you get even more consumed, more isolated in football, and then you have no skill set once the game is finished with you.
In college, my day was sketched out for me, from 6:30 a.m. until 9 o’clock at night. There was no difference when I transitioned to the NFL. It was all about trying to win a championship, trying to get prepared. The role engulfs you even more. They pay those NFL assistant coaches well to show George how to drop back into the flat or cover a running back. I didn't have those life coaches when I left the game. That support system disappeared, and I was lost.
[+] Enlarge
Stephen Dunn/Getty ImagesOn the day of Junior Seau's death, Koonce submitted his doctoral thesis on life after the NFL to Marquette.
Stephen Dunn/Getty ImagesOn the day of Junior Seau's death, Koonce submitted his doctoral thesis on life after the NFL to Marquette.One month, I was returning an interception for a touchdown during a Seahawks victory over Atlanta. The next month, I was finished. Even my agent stopped calling. I’d spoken to him on the phone three or four times a day since signing with him out of college, and now he wouldn’t take my calls. I’d had a decent 2000 season, finishing second on the Seahawks in tackles, but I was 32 years old, had a bad knee and was suddenly expendable.
In the locker room, we want to talk about how we're going to get past the Cowboys or 49ers. We’re not talking about weaknesses. We’re not talking about being scared. When guys start feeling that way in retirement, they go off by themselves and they start self-medicating: drinking, taking pain pills, taking narcotics, trying to fill that void.
Football becomes your identity. Your family buys into it, your friends buy into it, the alums from your college buy into it. And then it is gone. You are gone.
What can we do to help?
The NFL and NFL Players Association just hammered out a 10-year agreement. How much money is allocated toward players' transition away from the game? What about deferring some of the players' salaries until they reach a certain age and have matured enough to use it more wisely?
We hear about mentors when the focus should be on sponsors -- someone who goes beyond pointing athletes in the right direction, helping to personally make the introductions that make all the difference.
At the college level, Title IX forced the NCAA to account for women's athletics. Why can't the NCAA implement a senior level position for player and community development?
The average NFL career lasts only a few years. The game requires a player's unconditional investment while promising a very conditional and one-dimensional return. It produces too many athletes unprepared for anything else. More of them than we know will have thoughts like the ones I had coming around that curve in Kinston, N.C.
It's time to do more about it.
George Koonce played professional football for 10 years -- eight years in Green Bay, one year in Seattle and one year in NFL Europe -- and helped the Green Bay Packers to the Super Bowl XXXI title. Koonce has served as senior associate athletics director at Marquette University, athletics director at University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, director of player development for the Packers and special assistant to the athletic director at East Carolina University. In his current role as director of development for Marquette, Koonce raises money for the Urban Scholars Program, which affords first-generation college students from diverse backgrounds opportunities to receive college educations.
Good morning. We're back on the usual Thursday chat schedule this week. Here's the link.
A running joke on the blog is that we haven't had enough Deuce Lutui items lately, so if you've got any questions about, say, his offseason approach to nutrition, by all means, fire away. This could be a rare opportunity to discuss a subject that simply hasn't gotten enough play.
See you there at 1 p.m. ET.
A running joke on the blog is that we haven't had enough Deuce Lutui items lately, so if you've got any questions about, say, his offseason approach to nutrition, by all means, fire away. This could be a rare opportunity to discuss a subject that simply hasn't gotten enough play.
See you there at 1 p.m. ET.
MoJo from Tucson, Ariz., asks a fairly open-ended question regarding the Arizona Cardinals' leading rusher.
"How much respect did defenses show to Beanie Wells last season?" he asks.
Mike Sando: An answer would be difficult to quantify with information available to me.
We can say with some certainty that opposing defenses were not loading up against Wells relative to other running backs. The opposite appears to be true.
Wells ranked 18th out of 19 qualifying backs in percentage of first- and second-down rushes against "loaded" fronts, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Loaded fronts are those featuring more defenders in the box than the offense has blockers to account for them. The list featured backs with 200-plus carries on first and down.
The percentages would not account for plays when teams passed the ball, perhaps as a response to those loaded fronts. In the Cardinals' case, it's plausible to think opponents would make Larry Fitzgerald the focus of their game plans, limiting how frequently they felt comfortable dedicating additional resources to stop a running back.
However, it's also clear Wells didn't fare well enough against those loaded fronts to force adjustments from defenses. He averaged 4.53 yards per carry against unloaded fronts and only 1.46 yards per carry against loaded ones. That differential, displayed in the second chart, exceeded three yards per attempt, the largest gap among the 19 qualifying backs.
For example, Frank Gore and Steven Jackson both averaged about .74 fewer yards per carry against loaded fronts. Marshawn Lynch averaged 0.5 fewer yards per carry. Pittsburgh's Rashard Mendhenhall, Baltimore's Ray Rice and Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew averaged at least 1.6 additional yards per carry against loaded fronts.
But with a relatively small percentage of carries coming against loaded fronts, one long run could skew the averages.
Lynch had 40- and 29-yard runs against loaded fronts. Gore had two 14-yard runs against loaded fronts. Jackson had 13- and 10-yard runs against them. Wells' longest run against a loaded front covered six yards. He also lost six yards on such a run.
Blocking is another factor to consider. Perhaps the Cardinals did not block these runs as well as other teams blocked them.
That leads me back to the original point. It's tough to quantify a respect factor even though some evidence suggests Wells wasn't commanding as much as other backs commanded.
Jeff from Las Vegas asks what happens when a player such as Terrell Suggs suffers a serious injury before the season.
"Does he still get paid in full, or at some reduced rate?" Jeff asks. "Does it matter if he was working out or doing some activity not related to football? Do most players have insurance to cover their salary?"
Mike Sando: The collective bargaining agreement does allow teams to withhold salary from players suffering non-football injuries.
Suggs has built up considerable equity with the organization during his career, however, and it's not like he was jumping a Harley-Davidson over the fountains at Caesars Palace. Players routinely work out on their own. Sometimes, they get hurt.
Suggs' coach, John Harbaugh, recently said Suggs will remain a team leader while rehabbing. Withholding Suggs' salary would be inconsistent with those comments.
Suggs' contract calls for him to earn $4.9 million in base salary for 2012. His deal runs through the 2014 season. The team would have the right to place Suggs on the "non-football injury" list and withhold salary while Suggs' contract continued to run.
Players placed on the non-football injury list while in the final year or option year of their contracts can have their contracts tolled, or frozen.
"However, if the player is physically able to perform his football services on or before the sixth regular season game, the club must pay the player his negotiated Paragraph 5 Salary (pro rata) for the balance of the season in order to toll such player's contract," the labor agreement reads. "If such player is taken off N-F/I during the period when such action is allowed by League rules, his contract will not be tolled."
Those are the contractual considerations. Some of them do not apply to Suggs because he's not in the final year of his deal. Again, I wouldn't expect the Ravens to play hardball with someone they value so much.
As for players purchasing insurance against such injuries, I doubt it's very common.
Costs would seem prohibitive for lower-profile players earning less money. The payoff wouldn't seem sufficient for players having already earned millions. However, I do not know how many players have such policies.
NCAA players sometimes purchase such insurance, but very few have ever collected, according to the Los Angeles Times.
Jason from Madison, Wisc., viewed Merril Hoge's recent comments in response to Kurt Warner as evidence there's no room on ESPN for views "that are not full-bore in support of a sport." He says Hoge wouldn't know to what extent repetitive blows to the head have contributed to issues observed in boxers and, perhaps increasingly, in football players.
"If the possible outcome is permanent brain damage," Jason writes, "and you do not know exactly what level of contact causes it, are you really being the less reasonable person if you say, 'I am not sure if I would let my kids participate' instead of blindly following along with the pack trying to find way to rationalize what they have done and are doing?
"You are coming off as nothing but an NFL cheerleader and as such it is apparent that your content is not worth reading."
Mike Sando: Don't shoot the messenger, Jason. The item presented both views fairly. Warner's comments were reproduced in full and presented first. I thought Warner's response was understandable, and said so. I also thought it was clear Hoge had thought through the issue to a greater degree.
My oldest son plays tackle football and loves it. I would not let him keep playing if he suffered a serious concussion. That is a reasonable stance to me. I also think it's reasonable for Warner to have reservations about letting his sons play. There's room for more than one view on this subject. The way I presented the piece Friday demonstrates as much, in my view.
"How much respect did defenses show to Beanie Wells last season?" he asks.
Mike Sando: An answer would be difficult to quantify with information available to me.
We can say with some certainty that opposing defenses were not loading up against Wells relative to other running backs. The opposite appears to be true.
Wells ranked 18th out of 19 qualifying backs in percentage of first- and second-down rushes against "loaded" fronts, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Loaded fronts are those featuring more defenders in the box than the offense has blockers to account for them. The list featured backs with 200-plus carries on first and down.
The percentages would not account for plays when teams passed the ball, perhaps as a response to those loaded fronts. In the Cardinals' case, it's plausible to think opponents would make Larry Fitzgerald the focus of their game plans, limiting how frequently they felt comfortable dedicating additional resources to stop a running back.
However, it's also clear Wells didn't fare well enough against those loaded fronts to force adjustments from defenses. He averaged 4.53 yards per carry against unloaded fronts and only 1.46 yards per carry against loaded ones. That differential, displayed in the second chart, exceeded three yards per attempt, the largest gap among the 19 qualifying backs.
For example, Frank Gore and Steven Jackson both averaged about .74 fewer yards per carry against loaded fronts. Marshawn Lynch averaged 0.5 fewer yards per carry. Pittsburgh's Rashard Mendhenhall, Baltimore's Ray Rice and Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew averaged at least 1.6 additional yards per carry against loaded fronts.
But with a relatively small percentage of carries coming against loaded fronts, one long run could skew the averages.
Lynch had 40- and 29-yard runs against loaded fronts. Gore had two 14-yard runs against loaded fronts. Jackson had 13- and 10-yard runs against them. Wells' longest run against a loaded front covered six yards. He also lost six yards on such a run.
Blocking is another factor to consider. Perhaps the Cardinals did not block these runs as well as other teams blocked them.
That leads me back to the original point. It's tough to quantify a respect factor even though some evidence suggests Wells wasn't commanding as much as other backs commanded.
Jeff from Las Vegas asks what happens when a player such as Terrell Suggs suffers a serious injury before the season.
"Does he still get paid in full, or at some reduced rate?" Jeff asks. "Does it matter if he was working out or doing some activity not related to football? Do most players have insurance to cover their salary?"
Mike Sando: The collective bargaining agreement does allow teams to withhold salary from players suffering non-football injuries.
Suggs has built up considerable equity with the organization during his career, however, and it's not like he was jumping a Harley-Davidson over the fountains at Caesars Palace. Players routinely work out on their own. Sometimes, they get hurt.
Suggs' coach, John Harbaugh, recently said Suggs will remain a team leader while rehabbing. Withholding Suggs' salary would be inconsistent with those comments.
Suggs' contract calls for him to earn $4.9 million in base salary for 2012. His deal runs through the 2014 season. The team would have the right to place Suggs on the "non-football injury" list and withhold salary while Suggs' contract continued to run.
Players placed on the non-football injury list while in the final year or option year of their contracts can have their contracts tolled, or frozen.
"However, if the player is physically able to perform his football services on or before the sixth regular season game, the club must pay the player his negotiated Paragraph 5 Salary (pro rata) for the balance of the season in order to toll such player's contract," the labor agreement reads. "If such player is taken off N-F/I during the period when such action is allowed by League rules, his contract will not be tolled."
Those are the contractual considerations. Some of them do not apply to Suggs because he's not in the final year of his deal. Again, I wouldn't expect the Ravens to play hardball with someone they value so much.
As for players purchasing insurance against such injuries, I doubt it's very common.
Costs would seem prohibitive for lower-profile players earning less money. The payoff wouldn't seem sufficient for players having already earned millions. However, I do not know how many players have such policies.
NCAA players sometimes purchase such insurance, but very few have ever collected, according to the Los Angeles Times.
Jason from Madison, Wisc., viewed Merril Hoge's recent comments in response to Kurt Warner as evidence there's no room on ESPN for views "that are not full-bore in support of a sport." He says Hoge wouldn't know to what extent repetitive blows to the head have contributed to issues observed in boxers and, perhaps increasingly, in football players.
"If the possible outcome is permanent brain damage," Jason writes, "and you do not know exactly what level of contact causes it, are you really being the less reasonable person if you say, 'I am not sure if I would let my kids participate' instead of blindly following along with the pack trying to find way to rationalize what they have done and are doing?
"You are coming off as nothing but an NFL cheerleader and as such it is apparent that your content is not worth reading."
Mike Sando: Don't shoot the messenger, Jason. The item presented both views fairly. Warner's comments were reproduced in full and presented first. I thought Warner's response was understandable, and said so. I also thought it was clear Hoge had thought through the issue to a greater degree.
My oldest son plays tackle football and loves it. I would not let him keep playing if he suffered a serious concussion. That is a reasonable stance to me. I also think it's reasonable for Warner to have reservations about letting his sons play. There's room for more than one view on this subject. The way I presented the piece Friday demonstrates as much, in my view.
The surest way to avoid a football-related concussion is to stop playing football.
It's a path retired quarterback Kurt Warner has considered promoting, and one retired running back Merril Hoge strongly rejected during a provocative Friday. Both suffered multiple concussions as players.
Concussions forced Hoge, now an ESPN analyst, to retire. They severely affected his quality of life. The fear of additional concussions played at least some role in Warner's decision to retire following the 2009 season.
"I understand how great the game of football was for me, and what it did for my family, but when I'm sitting back and watching my kids play, my boys play right now -- they love it, their dream is to play in the NFL -- I worry about it," Warner told Colin Cowherd.
Warner was speaking from the heart only days after Junior Seau's suicide amplified concerns over what role, if any, head trauma might have played in the retired linebacker's demise.
"I worry about the long-term effects for me personally," Warner continued. "I worry about what can happen after football, as we've seen with a number of guys. I worry about what could happen at a younger age. ... With the way things are going right now and the way guys are getting bigger and stronger and faster, I would encourage my kids to probably stay away from it, if I could."
Hoge, meanwhile, has thought through this issue to a degree most others have not. He used the words "uneducated" and "uninformed" to describe Warner's take on the situation.
"When you think about what the problem is, it is not head trauma," Hoge said. "It is how head trauma is cared for. That is the issue. You are going to have concussions in every sport known to man. You're going to have them riding a bike. My son is 16, played football for eight years. He has had one concussion and that came from falling off a bike, hitting his head on a curb, splitting his helmet open. That doesn't mean I don't let him ride the bike."
Warner's response was understandable. In listening to his conversation with Cowherd, it was clear to me that Warner was still formulating his thinking on the matter. Hoge has a much stronger opinion.
"In Kurt Warner's situation, there was a chance to inform and educate those that are uninformed and uneducated," Hoge said. "Instead of scaring them away from the game, make them embrace the game by doing this: get involved, Kurt Warner. Get involved with your kids and their programs, make sure they are following the right guidelines. If your son is concussed, if your daughter is concussed in soccer or whatever, what are you doing for that player? Are you removing him from the game? Do you have the proper procedures in place? That is what is critical."
Warner could already be doing the things Hoge encouraged him to do, for all we know. The bottom line, in my view, is that the discussion is moving forward.
Someone once asked Junior Seau about his role as centerpiece of the San Diego Chargers' defense.
Seau mentioned the 10 other defensive starters by name in his response: John Parrella, Norman Hand, Ralee Johnson, Al Fontenot, Eric Hill, Lewis Bush, Jimmy Spencer, Darryl Lewis, Mike Dumas and Rodney Harrison.
"I like to publicize the guys that don't get enough credit and that's my whole defensive squad," he explained.
At the time, Seau also directed credit for the Chargers' new head coach, Mike Riley.
The defense was all about Seau, but Seau was all about the team.
This was in 1999, when covering the Seattle Seahawks meant covering the old AFC West, which meant covering the Chargers, which meant covering Seau, which felt like a privilege. Sometimes it appeared as though there were 11 Seaus on the field at once. He would pop into passing lanes unexpectedly to deflect passes at critical moments. He could chase down a running back with ease.
Seau, found dead Wednesday, never slowed down on the field. His AFC teammates at the Pro Bowl stopped complaining about how hard he practiced in Hawaii once they realized Seau knew no other way.
Chargers coach Norv Turner, speaking Wednesday, recalled Seau's competitiveness leading the linebacker to scout the team's offense to gain advantages in practice.
"We'd go out and practice different plays and different formations and different shifts, and he would always sneak out and try to watch the offensive walk-through so he was never fooled or never behind, and then it kind of got to be a game," Turner said in comments made available by the team. "You felt like you were coaching against him like you might be coaching against a coach. ... Football was important to him. He wanted to be right and he wanted to win."
The Chargers inducted Seau into their Hall of Fame last year. He was apparently in good physical health at the time despite a 20-year career.
"To be able to surf and run and do the things I enjoy today just doesn’t happen every day," Seau said.
After focusing on run, division looks to air
May, 2, 2012
May 2
10:07
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Every team in the NFC West had a 1,000-yard rusher last season.
Coaches in Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis have promoted run-first philosophies. Arizona has invested first- and second-round picks in running backs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, respectively.
Run, run, run.
And yet the division focused on the passing game quite a bit during the 2012 NFL draft -- on both sides of the ball. NFC West teams drafted a league-high three wide receivers in the first two rounds. Teams from the division drafted three cornerbacks in the first three rounds, tied with the NFC North for most in the league.
The charts show how many receivers and corners each division added through the first three rounds. The combined total for the NFC West (six) was the most for any division, one more than the NFC North.
St. Louis drafted cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins (second round) and Trumaine Johnson (third round). Arizona used a third-round choice for cornerback Jamell Fleming. Arizona (Michael Floyd) and San Francisco (A.J. Jenkins) used first-round picks for receivers. St. Louis added receiver Brian Quick in the second round (and another receiver, Chris Givens, in the fourth).
NFC West pass defenses could face additional pressure given the scheduling rotation in 2012.
Every NFC West team faces New England with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker.
The division also faces Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson), Detroit (Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew) and Chicago (Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall).
San Francisco draws New Orleans (Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston) and the New York Giants (Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz). Arizona faces Philadelphia (Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin) and Atlanta (Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones). Seattle faces Dallas (Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant) and Carolina (Cam Newton, Steve Smith).
The top five teams in 2011 passing yardage -- New Orleans, New England, Green Bay, Detroit and the Giants -- show up on NFC West schedules. Green Bay, New England, the Giants and Saints comprised the top four in yards per passing attempt. The top seven teams in passing touchdowns -- Green Bay, New Orleans, Detroit, New England, Dallas, Atlanta and the Giants -- play a combined 16 games against the NFC West.
And, of course, NFC West teams must face each other, which means games against Larry Fitzgerald, Vernon Davis, Randy Moss, Sidney Rice and others.
Coaches in Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis have promoted run-first philosophies. Arizona has invested first- and second-round picks in running backs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, respectively.
Run, run, run.
And yet the division focused on the passing game quite a bit during the 2012 NFL draft -- on both sides of the ball. NFC West teams drafted a league-high three wide receivers in the first two rounds. Teams from the division drafted three cornerbacks in the first three rounds, tied with the NFC North for most in the league.
The charts show how many receivers and corners each division added through the first three rounds. The combined total for the NFC West (six) was the most for any division, one more than the NFC North.
St. Louis drafted cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins (second round) and Trumaine Johnson (third round). Arizona used a third-round choice for cornerback Jamell Fleming. Arizona (Michael Floyd) and San Francisco (A.J. Jenkins) used first-round picks for receivers. St. Louis added receiver Brian Quick in the second round (and another receiver, Chris Givens, in the fourth).
NFC West pass defenses could face additional pressure given the scheduling rotation in 2012.
Every NFC West team faces New England with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker.
The division also faces Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson), Detroit (Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew) and Chicago (Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall).
San Francisco draws New Orleans (Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston) and the New York Giants (Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz). Arizona faces Philadelphia (Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin) and Atlanta (Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones). Seattle faces Dallas (Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant) and Carolina (Cam Newton, Steve Smith).
The top five teams in 2011 passing yardage -- New Orleans, New England, Green Bay, Detroit and the Giants -- show up on NFC West schedules. Green Bay, New England, the Giants and Saints comprised the top four in yards per passing attempt. The top seven teams in passing touchdowns -- Green Bay, New Orleans, Detroit, New England, Dallas, Atlanta and the Giants -- play a combined 16 games against the NFC West.
And, of course, NFC West teams must face each other, which means games against Larry Fitzgerald, Vernon Davis, Randy Moss, Sidney Rice and others.
How They Voted
| Rank | Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Giants | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | New England Patriots | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Baltimore Ravens | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 5 | San Francisco 49ers | 4 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 5 |
| 6 | Houston Texans | 6 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 11 |
| 8 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 11 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 8 |
| 9 | Detroit Lions | 8 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 7 |
| 10 | Denver Broncos | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 9 |
| 11 | Chicago Bears | 9 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 10 |
| 11 | Atlanta Falcons | 12 | 8 | 14 | 9 | 12 |
| 13 | New Orleans Saints | 13 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 15 |
| 14 | Dallas Cowboys | 16 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 14 |
| 15 | San Diego Chargers | 14 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 13 |
| 16 | Cincinnati Bengals | 15 | 16 | 20 | 15 | 20 |
| 17 | Kansas City Chiefs | 21 | 21 | 18 | 19 | 18 |
| 18 | Tennessee Titans | 18 | 18 | 19 | 24 | 19 |
| 18 | Arizona Cardinals | 19 | 24 | 17 | 22 | 16 |
| 20 | New York Jets | 20 | 17 | 22 | 18 | 22 |
| 20 | Carolina Panthers | 22 | 23 | 16 | 21 | 17 |
| 22 | Seattle Seahawks | 17 | 20 | 25 | 23 | 21 |
| 23 | Buffalo Bills | 24 | 22 | 23 | 16 | 25 |
| 24 | Tampa Bay Bucs | 23 | 19 | 27 | 20 | 23 |
| 25 | Washington Redskins | 25 | 25 | 21 | 26 | 24 |
| 26 | Oakland Raiders | 27 | 28 | 24 | 25 | 27 |
| 27 | Miami Dolphins | 29 | 26 | 29 | 27 | 26 |
| 28 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 28 | 27 | 26 | 29 | 28 |
| 29 | St. Louis Rams | 26 | 31 | 28 | 30 | 29 |
| 30 | Cleveland Browns | 31 | 29 | 30 | 32 | 30 |
| 31 | Minnesota Vikings | 30 | 30 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| 32 | Indianapolis Colts | 32 | 32 | 32 | 28 | 32 |
The NFL draft is critical, pivotal -- franchise-altering.
The moves teams make generate strong reactions. Analysts quickly decide which teams filled needs, which teams got great value, which teams helped themselves the most and which teams could have used a different approach.
Despite generating so much reaction, the 2012 draft failed to immediately move voters for ESPN's NFL Power Rankings.
Seventeen teams emerged from this draft with the same overall ranking they held in our polling from March. Another seven teams moved only one spot from last time. Overall, 31 teams moved three or fewer spots from the previous rankings.
The Super Bowl champion New York Giants remained No. 1 despite another No. 5 vote from John Clayton. The Indianapolis Colts remained 32nd despite adding Andrew Luck (of course, we knew heading into the previous rankings that Luck would be headed to Indy).
The Philadelphia Eagles were the big movers, jumping five spots to No. 7. The Eagles improved on every ballot but one. Ashley Fox, who lives in Philadelphia and has covered the Eagles for years, kept them at No. 11 on her ballot.
"I wasn't slighting the Eagles by leaving them at 12. I didn't move many teams up or down as a result of the draft. Philadelphia had a solid draft, filling some needs along the defensive line and continuing to rebuild the linebackers, and they unloaded Asante Samuel to Atlanta," Fox said.
"Philadelphia certainly should be among the top teams in the NFC this season if -- a big if here -- Michael Vick can stay healthy. I just wasn't ready to vault them into the top 10 yet."
And now, a closer look at the ranking, beginning with a look at how teams changed (or did not change) in the rankings from before the draft:
Falling (8): Carolina Panthers (-3), Denver Broncos (-2), Detroit Lions (-2), New Orleans Saints (-2), Tennessee Titans (-2), Chicago Bears (-1), Jacksonville Jaguars (-1), San Francisco 49ers (-1).
Rising (7): Philadelphia Eagles (+5), Cincinnati Bengals (+3), Arizona Cardinals (+2), Atlanta Falcons (+1), Baltimore Ravens (+1), Miami Dolphins (+1), Pittsburgh Steelers (+1).
Unchanged (17): Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New York Giants, New York Jets, Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Bucs, Washington Redskins.
Deadlocked: We broke three ties this time. Chicago edged Atlanta at No. 11 based on the first tiebreaker, head-to-head results (the teams played last season). Tennessee prevailed over Arizona at No. 18 based on the second tiebreaker, overall record (from last season, in this case). The Jets edged Carolina at No. 20, also on the second tiebreaker.
Like minds: Every voter had the Packers second or third and the Vikings 30th or 31st. Those were the only teams separated by no more than one spot across all five ballots.
Agree to disagree: Four panelists had the Bills ranked between 22nd and 25th. AFC East blogger James Walker had them 16th.
"I like that expectations are low for the Bills, because they are my sleeper pick for 2012," Walker said. "It's not just defensive end Mario Williams. Buffalo made some solid acquisitions in the draft and free agency that are under the radar. I think the Bills are going to surprise people this year."
The Bills surprised us last year, only to fade into oblivion and squander the benefit of the doubt among most voters.
A look at the teams generating high-low disparities of at least seven spots in the rankings:
- Bills (9): Walker had them 16th, higher than any other voter had them. Fox had them 25th, lower than any voter had them.
- Bucs (8): Clayton 19th, Kuharsky 27th.
- Seahawks (8): Sando 17th, Kuharsky 25th.
- Cardinals (8): Fox 16th, Clayton 24th.
- Panthers (7): Kuharsky 16th, Clayton 23rd.
Ranking the divisions: Teams from the NFC East ranked 12.0 on average, highest for any division. That was a change from 12.8 last time.
A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least four spots since before the draft:
- Sando: Panthers (-4), Eagles (+6), Bengals (+6).
- Clayton: none.
- Kuharsky: none.
- Walker: Jaguars (-4), Cardinals (+5), Cowboys (+5).
- Fox: none.
Months of mocks and related analysis did not adequately prepare us for a half-dozen selections in the first round of the 2012 NFL draft.
NFC West teams made two of those surprise selections: Bruce Irvin to the Seattle Seahawks and A.J. Jenkins to the San Francisco 49ers. I've listed four others in the chart below after consulting with our other seven divisional bloggers.
While it's possible the teams involved made poor decisions in some cases, accounting for the surprise factor, there's no question the rest of us could have done a better job anticipating. I'll set aside the Dallas Cowboys' selection of cornerback Morris Claiborne. We knew Dallas could take a corner, but there was little way we could know the Cowboys would trade into the sixth overall spot to make it happen.
But in breaking down the other surprise selections, we can hopefully avoid making similar mistakes in the future.
Mistaken identity
Jenkins and New York Giants first-round running back David Wilson fall into this category.
We knew the 49ers could target a receiver early. We figured running back would be a position for the Giants to address. We simply misidentified the players they were most likely to select.
I had projected Kendall Wright to San Francisco in a mock draft several weeks ago, but Tennessee selected him 20th overall, 10 spots before the 49ers selected. Stephen Hill and Rueben Randle, among others, were popular projections.
The knock on Jenkins was that he lacked sufficient physical strength. The 49ers are a very physical team. They have valued physical players. Josh Morgan was a physical wideout the team would have retained if Washington hadn't made an over-the-top contract offer.
In retrospect, however, perhaps we should have more closely considered the receivers San Francisco did sign this offseason. Mario Manningham has never been known as a physical player. Ted Ginn Jr. is not physical at all.
The 49ers now have drafted two wide receivers under coach Jim Harbaugh. Ronald Johnson, a sixth-round pick in 2011, was the one before Jenkins. Lack of physical strength was a knock on Johnson coming out of college.
So far, the 49ers have done a very good job evaluating personnel at just about every position, but receiver has been an exception. Perhaps that changes with Jenkins.
For the Giants, Doug Martin was the running back projected as a first-round candidate somewhat regularly. Tampa Bay drafted Martin at No. 31, one spot ahead of where the Giants were picking. That gave this draft three first-round backs, one more than was typically projected.
Scheme considerations
Irvin and Chicago Bears first-round defensive end Shea McClellin fall into this category.
We could put Irvin in the mistaken identity category as well because the Seahawks' need for a pass-rusher was well-established. But the projections commonly assumed Seattle would be looking for a more traditional defensive end, one big enough to hold up against the run.
In retrospect, we should have at least mentioned Irvin as a possibility.
Seattle gave run-stuffing defensive end Red Bryant a $35 million contract this offseason. Bryant is going to start and play early downs for the next few seasons. That meant the Seahawks were in the market more for a player in the "Leo" role filled by leading sacker Chris Clemons.
Irvin is that type of player. The other defensive ends commonly associated with Seattle before the draft were not "Leo" types. They would have projected as eventual starters on the other side, where Bryant appears entrenched.
What the Seahawks needed, from their perspective, was a pure pass-rusher to play a situational role similar to the one Aldon Smith played with San Francisco last season. That player, Irvin, would project as the eventual replacement for Clemons, most likely.
Syracuse's Chandler Jones, a common projection for Seattle in the days before the draft, could have fit that profile. Concerns over a toe injury probably hurt his stock.
In Chicago, meanwhile, the Bears' need for a defensive end was no secret. However, most projections seemed to suggest McClellin would make more sense as a 3-4 outside linebacker, perhaps in Green Bay. In retrospect, however, Bears assistant Rod Marinelli does tend to like smaller defensive ends. Perhaps McClellin should have been considered more strongly as a candidate for Chicago.
Positional evaluation error
I'd throw Stanford guard David DeCastro into this category.
The assumption heading into the draft was DeCastro would not be available when the Pittsburgh Steelers selected with the 24th overall choice. As a result, DeCastro wasn't commonly linked to Pittsburgh before the draft.
But as we discussed on the blog a while back, teams had taken only five pure guards among the top 17 overall selections since 1995. Only one had gone higher than 17th since 1998.
Guards have made significant gains in financial compensation over the years. However, teams still value other positions at a much higher level. Guard was a common projection for San Francisco at No. 30, but the 49ers did not select one until the fourth round.
Conclusion
There's a tendency to criticize teams for making decisions we did not see coming.
That is self-serving.
I'd rather take a closer look at the surprises and find out where the rest of us went wrong.
NFC West teams made two of those surprise selections: Bruce Irvin to the Seattle Seahawks and A.J. Jenkins to the San Francisco 49ers. I've listed four others in the chart below after consulting with our other seven divisional bloggers.
While it's possible the teams involved made poor decisions in some cases, accounting for the surprise factor, there's no question the rest of us could have done a better job anticipating. I'll set aside the Dallas Cowboys' selection of cornerback Morris Claiborne. We knew Dallas could take a corner, but there was little way we could know the Cowboys would trade into the sixth overall spot to make it happen.
But in breaking down the other surprise selections, we can hopefully avoid making similar mistakes in the future.
Mistaken identity
Jenkins and New York Giants first-round running back David Wilson fall into this category.
We knew the 49ers could target a receiver early. We figured running back would be a position for the Giants to address. We simply misidentified the players they were most likely to select.
I had projected Kendall Wright to San Francisco in a mock draft several weeks ago, but Tennessee selected him 20th overall, 10 spots before the 49ers selected. Stephen Hill and Rueben Randle, among others, were popular projections.
The knock on Jenkins was that he lacked sufficient physical strength. The 49ers are a very physical team. They have valued physical players. Josh Morgan was a physical wideout the team would have retained if Washington hadn't made an over-the-top contract offer.
In retrospect, however, perhaps we should have more closely considered the receivers San Francisco did sign this offseason. Mario Manningham has never been known as a physical player. Ted Ginn Jr. is not physical at all.
The 49ers now have drafted two wide receivers under coach Jim Harbaugh. Ronald Johnson, a sixth-round pick in 2011, was the one before Jenkins. Lack of physical strength was a knock on Johnson coming out of college.
So far, the 49ers have done a very good job evaluating personnel at just about every position, but receiver has been an exception. Perhaps that changes with Jenkins.
For the Giants, Doug Martin was the running back projected as a first-round candidate somewhat regularly. Tampa Bay drafted Martin at No. 31, one spot ahead of where the Giants were picking. That gave this draft three first-round backs, one more than was typically projected.
Scheme considerations
Irvin and Chicago Bears first-round defensive end Shea McClellin fall into this category.
We could put Irvin in the mistaken identity category as well because the Seahawks' need for a pass-rusher was well-established. But the projections commonly assumed Seattle would be looking for a more traditional defensive end, one big enough to hold up against the run.
In retrospect, we should have at least mentioned Irvin as a possibility.
Seattle gave run-stuffing defensive end Red Bryant a $35 million contract this offseason. Bryant is going to start and play early downs for the next few seasons. That meant the Seahawks were in the market more for a player in the "Leo" role filled by leading sacker Chris Clemons.
Irvin is that type of player. The other defensive ends commonly associated with Seattle before the draft were not "Leo" types. They would have projected as eventual starters on the other side, where Bryant appears entrenched.
What the Seahawks needed, from their perspective, was a pure pass-rusher to play a situational role similar to the one Aldon Smith played with San Francisco last season. That player, Irvin, would project as the eventual replacement for Clemons, most likely.
Syracuse's Chandler Jones, a common projection for Seattle in the days before the draft, could have fit that profile. Concerns over a toe injury probably hurt his stock.
In Chicago, meanwhile, the Bears' need for a defensive end was no secret. However, most projections seemed to suggest McClellin would make more sense as a 3-4 outside linebacker, perhaps in Green Bay. In retrospect, however, Bears assistant Rod Marinelli does tend to like smaller defensive ends. Perhaps McClellin should have been considered more strongly as a candidate for Chicago.
Positional evaluation error
I'd throw Stanford guard David DeCastro into this category.
The assumption heading into the draft was DeCastro would not be available when the Pittsburgh Steelers selected with the 24th overall choice. As a result, DeCastro wasn't commonly linked to Pittsburgh before the draft.
But as we discussed on the blog a while back, teams had taken only five pure guards among the top 17 overall selections since 1995. Only one had gone higher than 17th since 1998.
Guards have made significant gains in financial compensation over the years. However, teams still value other positions at a much higher level. Guard was a common projection for San Francisco at No. 30, but the 49ers did not select one until the fourth round.
Conclusion
There's a tendency to criticize teams for making decisions we did not see coming.
That is self-serving.
I'd rather take a closer look at the surprises and find out where the rest of us went wrong.
Draft analysts Mel Kiper Jr. Todd McShay, Rob Rang and Nolan Nawrocki have published their final 2012 NFL mock drafts, with NFC West picks on display in the chart.
There's more consensus with the 30th overall choice than with the sixth overall choice. All four have San Francisco selecting a guard. Three of the four point to Wisconsin's Kevin Zeitler as the one.
I'll revisit these after the draft and hand out awards as warranted.
There's more consensus with the 30th overall choice than with the sixth overall choice. All four have San Francisco selecting a guard. Three of the four point to Wisconsin's Kevin Zeitler as the one.
I'll revisit these after the draft and hand out awards as warranted.
2012 NFL Draft: Draft-day Mocks
| Pick | Team | Kiper  |
McShay |
Rang | Nawrocki |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Rams | Morris Claiborne | Justin Blackmon | Justin Blackmon | Matt Kalil |
| 12 | Seahawks | Melvin Ingram | Chandler Jones | Luke Kuechly | Fletcher Cox |
| 13 | Cardinals | Riley Reiff | Riley Reiff | Riley Reiff | Michael Floyd |
| 30 | 49ers | Kevin Zeitler | Kevin Zeitler | Amini Silatolu | Kevin Zeitler |
Draft-day chat falls amid usual confusion
April, 26, 2012
Apr 26
12:11
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
A heads up: The NFC West chat takes place Thursday at its regularly scheduled time (1 p.m. ET). From there, I'll relocate to Seattle Seahawks headquarters for the 2012 NFL draft.
This might be a good opportunity to field a comment/question from Facebook friend Evan.
"I find it hysterical that the last few days leading up to the draft a bunch a guys are rocketing up, or falling off the board when these guys haven't played a snap of football in over four months," he wrote. "Why does it seem that teams are valuing more what guys are doing off the field then on?"
Teams tweak their player rankings in the final days before the draft. They generally do not make dramatic changes. However, strong divergent opinions exist within organizations. Coaches, scouts and general managers sometimes share their opinions with reporters. In some cases, it's just a matter of reporters finding out things teams have known for some time -- that concerns about a certain player could compromise the player's draft stock, etc.
No single person knows how all the teams feel about all the players. We're left to sift through opinions that might reflect what a single individual or team thinks about a certain player. I'd recommend filing away the things we hear, while guarding against giving too much credence to them.
A pile of puzzle pieces doesn't make for a clear picture.
This might be a good opportunity to field a comment/question from Facebook friend Evan.
"I find it hysterical that the last few days leading up to the draft a bunch a guys are rocketing up, or falling off the board when these guys haven't played a snap of football in over four months," he wrote. "Why does it seem that teams are valuing more what guys are doing off the field then on?"
Teams tweak their player rankings in the final days before the draft. They generally do not make dramatic changes. However, strong divergent opinions exist within organizations. Coaches, scouts and general managers sometimes share their opinions with reporters. In some cases, it's just a matter of reporters finding out things teams have known for some time -- that concerns about a certain player could compromise the player's draft stock, etc.
No single person knows how all the teams feel about all the players. We're left to sift through opinions that might reflect what a single individual or team thinks about a certain player. I'd recommend filing away the things we hear, while guarding against giving too much credence to them.
A pile of puzzle pieces doesn't make for a clear picture.
News that the Pro Bowl is likely going away comes a couple months after commissioner Roger Goodell threatened to discontinue the game.
Television ratings for the annual all-star game have remained relatively strong, but the product does nothing to enhance the NFL's brand, in my view. The drama and strategy that make real games compelling cannot exist in a Pro Bowl context.
The NFL Players Association has promoted continuing the game, calling it an important tradition. I get it, but elite players worried about risking injuries unnecessarily should welcome the news.
"Guys play a full season, they play physical through a full season, and you get rewarded," the New England Patriots' Vince Wilfork said during Super Bowl week. "The last thing you want to do is go out in a game like that and hurt yourself. That is not good for the individual or for the organization."
Wilfork's coach, Bill Belichick, responded humorously when asked about Aaron Rodgers' complaints that the 2012 Pro Bowl had become even more farcical than its predecessors. It was clear Belichick thought poorly of what the game had become.
"I felt like some of the guys on the NFC side embarrassed themselves," Rodgers told ESPN 540 in Milwaukee. "I was just surprised that some of the guys either didn't want to play or when they were in there didn't put any effort into it."
There should be no faking tackle football. It's a game best played with emotion and with something at stake beyond the potential for injury.
You called it: 2012 NFL draft predictions
April, 26, 2012
Apr 26
10:20
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Thank you, Facebook friend Chris Staser, for pointing me toward an "NFC WEST BLOG" group in the ESPN Draft Forecaster competition.
Some of our blog regulars -- RedRumRBS, DiLune2, joe_cool585 and others -- are already signed up.
Let's pump up the numbers in this group and use the results to crown an NFC West blog mock draft champion for 2012. My entry drew largely from our ESPN Blogger Mock, with a few modifications.
For now, I've got Justin Blackmon (St. Louis), Chandler Jones (Seattle), Riley Reiff (Arizona) and Janoris Jenkins (San Francisco) as seemingly logical but likely incorrect projections for NFC West teams.
Remember, there would be 263,130,836,933,693,530,167,218,012,160,000,000 possible combinations for the first 32 choices even if we knew which 32 players would be drafted first. We do not know the first 32, which means that number -- 263 decillion and change -- fails to fully reflect the impossibility of guessing all the picks correctly (even though we know the first two choices).
Have fun. Glory awaits our winner.
Some of our blog regulars -- RedRumRBS, DiLune2, joe_cool585 and others -- are already signed up.
Let's pump up the numbers in this group and use the results to crown an NFC West blog mock draft champion for 2012. My entry drew largely from our ESPN Blogger Mock, with a few modifications.
For now, I've got Justin Blackmon (St. Louis), Chandler Jones (Seattle), Riley Reiff (Arizona) and Janoris Jenkins (San Francisco) as seemingly logical but likely incorrect projections for NFC West teams.
Remember, there would be 263,130,836,933,693,530,167,218,012,160,000,000 possible combinations for the first 32 choices even if we knew which 32 players would be drafted first. We do not know the first 32, which means that number -- 263 decillion and change -- fails to fully reflect the impossibility of guessing all the picks correctly (even though we know the first two choices).
Have fun. Glory awaits our winner.
The first six picks of ESPN’s Blogger Mock Draft unfolded pretty much as expected.
That’s when James Walker, our AFC East representative, put out the word: “I’m willing to make a trade back with Buffalo at No. 10.”
Before anyone could respond, AFC South representative Paul Kuharsky announced he’d swung a deal with Dan Graziano of the NFC East. The Jaguars had traded the seventh overall choice and a sixth-rounder to Philadelphia for the 15th, 88th and 153rd selections.
The Eagles took defensive tackle Fletcher Cox at No. 7.
“By the way,” I wrote in an email to the group, “Seattle would love to trade back from 12.”
Then came the word from Walker, sent only to me, the NFC West rep: “Don’t make your pick at No. 12 yet. I have an offer from New England coming. Working out the point chart. First, I have to figure out Buffalo’s pick at No. 10.”
A few seconds passed before the AFC West’s Bill Williamson, unaware Walker had already made contact regarding the 12th pick, reached out to me in another email.
“If Melvin Ingram is on the board at 12,” Williamson wrote, “I might have San Diego come up from 18.”
This was intriguing. Seattle’s actual leadership had swung a deal with San Diego for quarterback Charlie Whitehurst a couple of years ago, so trade talks for the 12th pick seemed realistic. But the Seahawks also have a working relationship with the Patriots, having traded Deion Branch to them not all that long ago.
“Sounds good,” I replied to Bill. “James might also make an offer here.”
The potential deal with Williamson and San Diego was fleeting. Walker executed a trade with himself, allowing the New York Jets to move into Buffalo’s spot at No. 10. The Jets took Ingram, the player Williamson had wanted for San Diego.
The fun was only beginning.
Our eight divisional bloggers made four trades involving the seventh, 10th, 12th, 15th, 16th, 27th, 31st and 32nd overall choices, plus later considerations.
Five of our first-round selections in this mock failed to appear in our previous one. Jerel Worthy, Kevin Zeitler, Chandler Jones, Shea McClellin and Coby Fleener pushed out Rueben Randle, Andre Branch, Peter Konz, Kendall Wright and Mike Adams.
Courtney Upshaw, Dontari Poe and Stephen Hill made double-digit drops from then to now. Michael Brockers, Cordy Glenn, Stephon Gilmore and Cox climbed at least eight spots since last time.
We drafted seven defensive ends/outside linebackers, six offensive linemen, five defensive backs, four defensive tackles, three receivers, three quarterbacks, two inside linebackers, one tight end and one running back.
Mostly, we had some fun with the process. Thanks for coming along.
***
ESPN.com's NFL bloggers went through one final mock draft leading up to Thursday's start of the NFL draft. Here is how #ESPNbloggermock played out.
That’s when James Walker, our AFC East representative, put out the word: “I’m willing to make a trade back with Buffalo at No. 10.”
Before anyone could respond, AFC South representative Paul Kuharsky announced he’d swung a deal with Dan Graziano of the NFC East. The Jaguars had traded the seventh overall choice and a sixth-rounder to Philadelphia for the 15th, 88th and 153rd selections.
The Eagles took defensive tackle Fletcher Cox at No. 7.
“By the way,” I wrote in an email to the group, “Seattle would love to trade back from 12.”
Then came the word from Walker, sent only to me, the NFC West rep: “Don’t make your pick at No. 12 yet. I have an offer from New England coming. Working out the point chart. First, I have to figure out Buffalo’s pick at No. 10.”
A few seconds passed before the AFC West’s Bill Williamson, unaware Walker had already made contact regarding the 12th pick, reached out to me in another email.
“If Melvin Ingram is on the board at 12,” Williamson wrote, “I might have San Diego come up from 18.”
This was intriguing. Seattle’s actual leadership had swung a deal with San Diego for quarterback Charlie Whitehurst a couple of years ago, so trade talks for the 12th pick seemed realistic. But the Seahawks also have a working relationship with the Patriots, having traded Deion Branch to them not all that long ago.
“Sounds good,” I replied to Bill. “James might also make an offer here.”
The potential deal with Williamson and San Diego was fleeting. Walker executed a trade with himself, allowing the New York Jets to move into Buffalo’s spot at No. 10. The Jets took Ingram, the player Williamson had wanted for San Diego.
The fun was only beginning.
Our eight divisional bloggers made four trades involving the seventh, 10th, 12th, 15th, 16th, 27th, 31st and 32nd overall choices, plus later considerations.
Five of our first-round selections in this mock failed to appear in our previous one. Jerel Worthy, Kevin Zeitler, Chandler Jones, Shea McClellin and Coby Fleener pushed out Rueben Randle, Andre Branch, Peter Konz, Kendall Wright and Mike Adams.
Courtney Upshaw, Dontari Poe and Stephen Hill made double-digit drops from then to now. Michael Brockers, Cordy Glenn, Stephon Gilmore and Cox climbed at least eight spots since last time.
We drafted seven defensive ends/outside linebackers, six offensive linemen, five defensive backs, four defensive tackles, three receivers, three quarterbacks, two inside linebackers, one tight end and one running back.
Mostly, we had some fun with the process. Thanks for coming along.
***
ESPN.com's NFL bloggers went through one final mock draft leading up to Thursday's start of the NFL draft. Here is how #ESPNbloggermock played out.
Analysis: We're going to hit at least one of the AFC South's four picks here, so we thank the Colts for that. Luck draws raves from all corners and gives Indianapolis another quarterback who could set high standards for more than a dozen years, like the guy he's replacing did. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: A no-brainer for Washington, which traded three first-round picks and a second-rounder to move into this spot to take the young man they believe will be their next franchise quarterback. Skins fans have already been wearing Griffin's name and face on T-shirts for weeks. (Dan Graziano)
Analysis: I burned up the email lines trying to drum up interest for this pick, much as I imagine Vikings general manager Rick Spielman will do in the coming days and heading into Thursday night. But my colleagues were too smart for that, and I was more than happy to scoop up Kalil and presumably put quarterback Christian Ponder's mind at ease. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: Not buying into the Browns' interest in wide receiver Justin Blackmon or quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Richardson is clearly the best offensive player in the draft outside of Luck and RG3. The Browns' struggling offense needs an identity, and Richardson can instantly give it a tough one. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: Once Richardson went off the board, this became an easy call. The Bucs need to add a top-notch cornerback because Ronde Barber is nearing the end of his career and Aqib Talib could face prison time or a suspension. Even if Talib is able to play this season, he's headed into the last year of his contract. The Bucs addressed the position they needed to most. They can get a running back early in the second or third round. (Pat Yasinskas)
Analysis: Blackmon has long been a popular projection for the Rams. I'm not convinced he'll be the choice or even the first receiver drafted, but there was also a fear of overthinking the situation. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: The Eagles fell in love with Cox and were convinced he wouldn't get past Carolina at No. 9. So after the Rams picked Blackmon, Philadelphia offered Jacksonville the No. 15 pick and the No. 88 pick (third round) for the Jaguars' overall No. 7. Jacksonville countered by asking for a fifth-round pick (No. 153) and offering a sixth (No. 176), and the Eagles said yes. They get the guy they wanted and still have their two second-rounders. (Dan Graziano)
Analysis: There was speculation that Tannehill wouldn't make it to No. 8. The Dolphins do the right thing by not trading the farm to move up to No. 3. Miami gets its quarterback of the future to reunite with Dolphins offensive coordinator Mike Sherman. (James Walker)
Analysis: Defensive tackle is a consideration, but Cox is the only sure-fire player at that spot. With him gone, the Panthers go with another low-risk player. Kuechly was exceptionally productive in college and is NFL-ready. He can contribute right away and that's something the Panthers want from this pick. (Pat Yasinskas)
Analysis: Buffalo didn't like its spot at No. 10, and the Jets are hot on Ingram. So the two division rivals worked out a trade. The Jets get the dominant pass-rusher Rex Ryan covets, while the Bills get additional picks in the third, fifth and sixth rounds (Nos. 77, 154, 187). (James Walker)
Analysis: The Chiefs take a sure thing and an instant starter who strengthens a good offense. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: The Patriots pull off a blockbuster trade with Seattle by giving up their two first-round picks (No. 27 and No. 31) for No. 12 overall and a fourth-rounder (No. 106). The Patriots, who were 31st against the pass, get the best safety in the draft. (James Walker)
Analysis: Floyd is arguably the most promising wide receiver in the draft. He would fit well in the Cardinals' offense while providing better value than the offensive tackles available at this point. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: They wanted Barron, and after the Pats made the bold move to trade up and take him at 12, the Cowboys looked into trading down. But they found no takers, so they took the highest defensive player on their board -- a versatile defensive lineman who deepens them at a key position and allows them to be flexible both with roster decisions and on-field alignments. (Dan Graziano)
Analysis: I didn't get a great haul in the trade. But the Jaguars could consider Gilmore at No. 7 and get him at 15 while picking up a third-rounder and swapping a sixth-rounder for a fifth-rounder. Corner is not the biggest need after the acquisition of Aaron Ross, but no defensive end or receiver screams to be taken at No. 7 or 15. Trade details: Eagles sent 15, 88, 153 to Jaguars for 7, 176. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: Buffalo is happy it moved down six spots and still landed its target in Reiff. Left tackle was a rotating door in Buffalo last season, and Reiff has the ability to be a Day 1 starter to protect Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick's blind side. Trade details: Jets sent 16, 77, 154 and 187 to Bills for 10. (James Walker)
Analysis: Things didn't go as planned in the first half of the draft for the Bengals, who watched guard David DeCastro, safety Mark Barron and cornerback Stephon Gilmore all get taken in the top 15. Defensive end isn't a major need for the Bengals, but it would be hard to resist taking a talent like Coples. Even though Coples has boom-or-bust potential, this is a pick based on best player available. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The Chargers go for the best value on the board and take an impact defensive player. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: The Bears were forced to play their starting defensive ends, Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije, on more than 80 percent of their plays last season. Depth, and a possible replacement for Idonije, was sorely needed. Mercilus seemed a better fit than Syracuse's Chandler Jones or Alabama's Courtney Upshaw. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: Perry provides a combination of size and speed that should round out the Titans' top four defensive ends and solidifies the position for the foreseeable future. If he can get to the quarterback with some regularity as a rookie, Tennessee can make a nice jump on defense. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: The decision here came down to Glenn, wide receiver Kendall Wright or cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick. You could argue wide receiver is the bigger need, but Glenn is the better prospect. After failing to get DeCastro at No. 17, the Bengals turn to Glenn to make an immediate impact at right or left guard. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: This was a tough call because the Browns need speed at wide receiver, and Wright and Hill are sitting there. But that's the reason the pick is Martin. There are so many more wide receiver prospects available than offensive tackles, so the Browns have a better chance of seeing a wide receiver fall to them early in the second round. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The Lions' secondary was their weakest link in 2011, and starter Eric Wright signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during free agency. General manager Martin Mayhew isn't a need-based drafter, but the position is a high priority. I had hoped for Kirkpatrick's former teammate Mark Barron here, but he was long gone, and I didn't have the guts to take North Alabama cornerback Janoris Jenkins. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: Could the Steelers have envisioned a better draft unfolding than this? Pittsburgh would've been happy with Dont'a Hightower, Courtney Upshaw or even Amini Silatolu. Instead, Poe falls into their laps. He becomes the heir apparent to Casey Hampton. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The Broncos would have pounced on Poe, but Worthy is a highly valued player who fills a huge hole. (Bill Williamson)
Analysis: The offensive line was a team strength a year ago, but gone are the right guard (Mike Brisiel) and the right tackle (Eric Winston). Houston loves Wisconsin players, and Zeitler will be ready to be plugged right in. We also thought hard about Bobby Massie and Rueben Randle. (Paul Kuharsky)
Analysis: Trading back was the plan all along. Jones has the length Seattle covets in its players on defense (think Brandon Browner, Richard Sherman, K.J. Wright, Kam Chancellor, etc.). Jones also fills an obvious need for a pass-rushing defensive end. Trade details: Patriots sent 27 and 31 to Seattle for 12 and 106. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: There were a number of possibilities here, but defensive coordinator Dom Capers loves to develop wrinkles off his 3-4 base, and McClellin is said to be versatile. It's possible the Packers could trade down and still get him at the top of the second round. (Kevin Seifert)
Analysis: The Ravens are always looking for pass-rushers, and Upshaw gives them another tone-setter on defense. He replaces Jarret Johnson in Baltimore's base defense and plays opposite Terrell Suggs as an edge rusher in passing situations. Upshaw has drawn comparisons to LaMarr Woodley, so you know he's an AFC North type of player. (Jamison Hensley)
Analysis: The 49ers face a long list of top quarterbacks this season. They lack glaring needs and should be able to find guard help later in the draft. Coby Fleener was a consideration, but the 49ers like their existing tight ends and could extend Delanie Walker's contract. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: The Seahawks need another tight end after losing John Carlson to the Vikings in free agency. Adding Jones at No. 27 gave them flexibility in this spot. Seattle entered draft week with 19 players from the Pac-12. Fleener would give them 20. Trade details: Patriots sent 27 and 31 to Seattle for 12 and 106. (Mike Sando)
Analysis: The Bills aren't done with a busy day of trading. Buffalo gets back in the first round by swapping a second-rounder and two fourth-rounders with the Giants. Hill is a big-play receiver to pair with Bills starter Steve Johnson. Hill averaged an astounding 29.3 yards per catch last season. Trade details: Giants trade 32 to Buffalo for 41, 105 and 124. (James Walker)
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Mike Sando
Sando joined ESPN.com in 2007 after nine seasons covering the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma (Wash.) News Tribune. He lives in the Seattle-Tacoma area with his wife and two sons.
