NFC West: NFL
Defending a running back from criticism has been as simple as blaming defenses for "stacking the box" against him.
It's usually not that simple.
The subject came up here most recently after we considered why the St. Louis Rams had so few "explosive" running plays last season.
Perhaps defenses weren't respecting the Rams' passing game, allowing them to load up against the run. The offensive line could share in the blame. Game situations could have been a factor. And it's always possible Steven Jackson was declining with age.
ESPN's Matt Williamson, writing the appropriately named "Eight in the Box" item for the NFC South blog, noted that Jackson might fare better with the Atlanta Falcons because "he will not be facing stacked boxes down after down" as he had with the Rams.
The subject is begging for analysis, but first we need some information.
Jackson ranked fifth in 2012 rushing yardage against loaded boxes on first and second downs. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry on these runs, a respectable average.
The Seattle Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch led the NFL in total carries against loaded boxes. He ranked second in rushing yards gained in these situations.
The chart at right shows the top 12 players in rushing yards against loaded boxes, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
The chart below ranks 2012 offenses by how frequently they faced loaded-box situations on first and second downs. I removed third and fourth downs to avoid obvious passing situations and most short-yardage situations. The idea was to isolate straightforward running plays. The figures do include quarterback rushes -- nine plays for Seattle, but not a significant number for most teams.
ESPN charts box counts by looking at the "number of defenders at the snap who are within five yards of the line of scrimmage and no further than two yards outside the tackles or outermost player attached to the line" -- excluding defenders following skill players in motion unless those skill players come to a stop while the defender remains in the box. Defenders just outside the box area who are clearly rushing into the box are counted as in the box.
Got that? I'll wait while you read it again.
I'd love to wrap up this item with an air-tight conclusion, but I'm not sure there are guiding principles applying to all teams equally. Different defenses likely have different reasons for loading up against specific opponents in certain situations, with disparate results.
Seattle's opponents stacked the box on 20.1 percent of rushing attempts, the highest rate in the NFL. There could have been other times when Seattle changed plays to a pass in these situations. That could happen more frequently in the future as quarterback Russell Wilson gains experience.
Defenses could have less reason to stack the box against pass-oriented teams with quarterbacks able to exploit numbers advantages down the field. I would have expected the San Francisco 49ers to have faced loaded boxes a higher percentage of the time. However, their frequent use of heavier personnel could have invited a higher number of defenders into the box area without producing a "loaded" situation -- one reason not to assume the frequently referenced "eight in the box" represents a numbers advantage for the defense in every case.
Perhaps you've got some theories. Fire away.
It's usually not that simple.
The subject came up here most recently after we considered why the St. Louis Rams had so few "explosive" running plays last season.
Perhaps defenses weren't respecting the Rams' passing game, allowing them to load up against the run. The offensive line could share in the blame. Game situations could have been a factor. And it's always possible Steven Jackson was declining with age.
ESPN's Matt Williamson, writing the appropriately named "Eight in the Box" item for the NFC South blog, noted that Jackson might fare better with the Atlanta Falcons because "he will not be facing stacked boxes down after down" as he had with the Rams.
The subject is begging for analysis, but first we need some information.
Jackson ranked fifth in 2012 rushing yardage against loaded boxes on first and second downs. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry on these runs, a respectable average.
The Seattle Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch led the NFL in total carries against loaded boxes. He ranked second in rushing yards gained in these situations.
The chart at right shows the top 12 players in rushing yards against loaded boxes, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
The chart below ranks 2012 offenses by how frequently they faced loaded-box situations on first and second downs. I removed third and fourth downs to avoid obvious passing situations and most short-yardage situations. The idea was to isolate straightforward running plays. The figures do include quarterback rushes -- nine plays for Seattle, but not a significant number for most teams.
ESPN charts box counts by looking at the "number of defenders at the snap who are within five yards of the line of scrimmage and no further than two yards outside the tackles or outermost player attached to the line" -- excluding defenders following skill players in motion unless those skill players come to a stop while the defender remains in the box. Defenders just outside the box area who are clearly rushing into the box are counted as in the box.
Got that? I'll wait while you read it again.
I'd love to wrap up this item with an air-tight conclusion, but I'm not sure there are guiding principles applying to all teams equally. Different defenses likely have different reasons for loading up against specific opponents in certain situations, with disparate results.
Seattle's opponents stacked the box on 20.1 percent of rushing attempts, the highest rate in the NFL. There could have been other times when Seattle changed plays to a pass in these situations. That could happen more frequently in the future as quarterback Russell Wilson gains experience.
Defenses could have less reason to stack the box against pass-oriented teams with quarterbacks able to exploit numbers advantages down the field. I would have expected the San Francisco 49ers to have faced loaded boxes a higher percentage of the time. However, their frequent use of heavier personnel could have invited a higher number of defenders into the box area without producing a "loaded" situation -- one reason not to assume the frequently referenced "eight in the box" represents a numbers advantage for the defense in every case.
Perhaps you've got some theories. Fire away.
Current NFL rules prevent teams from using computers during games to assist with calling plays or anything else related to the game on the field. That will change in 2014 under a new partnership between the NFL and Microsoft.
Much of the NFL's news release on the partnership includes information about real-time fantasy football applications through Xbox gaming systems.
This looks like a game-changer on the field as well. Computers should allow teams to more reliably consider the percentages in light of team tendencies, opponent tendencies, historical precedent or whatever information a team could find valuable. This should be especially true as younger coaches replace older ones.
"Coaches and players will soon have access to a variety of cutting-edge Microsoft solutions, including Surface tablets to enhance on-field communications, photo viewing and play calling," the release says. "Microsoft and the NFL envision a sideline of the future with players reviewing in-game photos from different camera angles directly from the sideline and head coaches calling plays off connected Surface tablets instead of today's static paper products. ... NFL coaches, players and other personnel will have the technology they need to improve decision-making and on-field performance."
I'll be very eager to learn specifics regarding what limitations, if any, the NFL plans to impose as technology becomes a bigger part of the game-day experience.
The changes announced Tuesday could mark a starting point for more coaches at least considering the percentages associated with their decisions. Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats explained one aspect of the thinking when asked during the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference about the Baltimore Ravens' decision to try a fake field goal on fourth-and-9 in the Super Bowl.
Teams currently chart plays by dozens of parameters, indexing them to video to facilitate in-week preparation. The ability to access that information more quickly during games would seem to offer an advantage.
Much of the NFL's news release on the partnership includes information about real-time fantasy football applications through Xbox gaming systems.
This looks like a game-changer on the field as well. Computers should allow teams to more reliably consider the percentages in light of team tendencies, opponent tendencies, historical precedent or whatever information a team could find valuable. This should be especially true as younger coaches replace older ones.
"Coaches and players will soon have access to a variety of cutting-edge Microsoft solutions, including Surface tablets to enhance on-field communications, photo viewing and play calling," the release says. "Microsoft and the NFL envision a sideline of the future with players reviewing in-game photos from different camera angles directly from the sideline and head coaches calling plays off connected Surface tablets instead of today's static paper products. ... NFL coaches, players and other personnel will have the technology they need to improve decision-making and on-field performance."
I'll be very eager to learn specifics regarding what limitations, if any, the NFL plans to impose as technology becomes a bigger part of the game-day experience.
The changes announced Tuesday could mark a starting point for more coaches at least considering the percentages associated with their decisions. Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats explained one aspect of the thinking when asked during the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference about the Baltimore Ravens' decision to try a fake field goal on fourth-and-9 in the Super Bowl.
Teams currently chart plays by dozens of parameters, indexing them to video to facilitate in-week preparation. The ability to access that information more quickly during games would seem to offer an advantage.
The Seattle Seahawks lead the NFL in suspensions for performance-enhancing drugs since Pete Carroll became coach in 2010, research by ESPN Stats & Information shows.
Defensive end Bruce Irvin's four-game suspension, announced Friday, was the fifth during that span, according to research ESPN's Steve Martinez conducted using STATS PASS.
The total does not include the 2012 suspension implicating cornerback Richard Sherman, who overturned a four-game ban on appeal. The botched handling of a leaky collection cup proved critical to the successful appeal.
Seven other teams have incurred three or four substance-abuse suspensions for PEDs over that span, including the Denver Broncos and New York Giants with four apiece, according to STATS PASS. The San Francisco 49ers are among 10 teams with zero.
Since 2010, the NFL suspended Seattle's Irvin, Brandon Browner, Winston Guy, Allen Barbre and John Moffitt for PED usage under its policy on anabolic steroids and related substances.
Moffitt said he took Adderall, a psychostimulant prescribed for attention-deficit disorders, under a doctor's prescription without knowing he needed a special exemption from the NFL.
Sherman, who denied violating the policy, has suggested doctor-approved Adderall use is widespread. He called for the NFL to lift its ban on the substance.
The chart ranks NFL teams by most PED-related suspensions since Carroll arrived as the Seahawks' head coach on Jan. 12, 2010.
Carroll and the NFL denied a 2009 report linking former USC players to positive steroid tests. One of the players named in that disputed report, Brian Cushing, later served a four-game NFL suspension for violating the policy on anabolic steroids and related substances.
First-time violators of the policy receive four-game suspensions. The penalty doubles for second-time violators. Third-time violators face suspensions of at least 12 months, subject to reinstatement at the commissioner's discretion. Players suspended under the policy for any length become ineligible for the Pro Bowl or any other NFL or NFL Players Association honors.
NFL policy requires annual testing for steroids and related substances when training camps begin or whenever a player reports to the team after camps begin. Preseason and regular-season protocol calls for 10 players per team to be tested at random each week. That protocol continues into the postseason for playoff teams. Players under contract can be tested up to six times during an offseason, subject to increases following a positive test.
Defensive end Bruce Irvin's four-game suspension, announced Friday, was the fifth during that span, according to research ESPN's Steve Martinez conducted using STATS PASS.
The total does not include the 2012 suspension implicating cornerback Richard Sherman, who overturned a four-game ban on appeal. The botched handling of a leaky collection cup proved critical to the successful appeal.
Seven other teams have incurred three or four substance-abuse suspensions for PEDs over that span, including the Denver Broncos and New York Giants with four apiece, according to STATS PASS. The San Francisco 49ers are among 10 teams with zero.
Since 2010, the NFL suspended Seattle's Irvin, Brandon Browner, Winston Guy, Allen Barbre and John Moffitt for PED usage under its policy on anabolic steroids and related substances.
Moffitt said he took Adderall, a psychostimulant prescribed for attention-deficit disorders, under a doctor's prescription without knowing he needed a special exemption from the NFL.
Sherman, who denied violating the policy, has suggested doctor-approved Adderall use is widespread. He called for the NFL to lift its ban on the substance.
The chart ranks NFL teams by most PED-related suspensions since Carroll arrived as the Seahawks' head coach on Jan. 12, 2010.
Carroll and the NFL denied a 2009 report linking former USC players to positive steroid tests. One of the players named in that disputed report, Brian Cushing, later served a four-game NFL suspension for violating the policy on anabolic steroids and related substances.
First-time violators of the policy receive four-game suspensions. The penalty doubles for second-time violators. Third-time violators face suspensions of at least 12 months, subject to reinstatement at the commissioner's discretion. Players suspended under the policy for any length become ineligible for the Pro Bowl or any other NFL or NFL Players Association honors.
NFL policy requires annual testing for steroids and related substances when training camps begin or whenever a player reports to the team after camps begin. Preseason and regular-season protocol calls for 10 players per team to be tested at random each week. That protocol continues into the postseason for playoff teams. Players under contract can be tested up to six times during an offseason, subject to increases following a positive test.
Our usual Thursday chat will be kicking off Friday at 2 p.m. ET instead.
Here's the link for those able to attend.
From there, I'll be driving over to Seattle Seahawks headquarters for their rookie minicamp. All four NFC West teams have rookie camps Friday through Sunday. We'll have a chance to form some first impressions and possibly pick up some other tidbits through interviews.
Here's the link for those able to attend.
From there, I'll be driving over to Seattle Seahawks headquarters for their rookie minicamp. All four NFC West teams have rookie camps Friday through Sunday. We'll have a chance to form some first impressions and possibly pick up some other tidbits through interviews.
We've pushed back the NFC West chat one day. I'll post the link before we get going at 2 p.m. ET Friday. You can check out the full chat archive dating to 2007 right here.
My plan is to head from the chat over to the Seattle Seahawks' first rookie minicamp practice later in the day.
On a side note, here's what we were chatting about one year ago Friday: Colin Kaepernick possibly taking over for Alex Smith because of injury (happened); the likelihood of an extension for Chris Long (happened); quarterback remaining by far the biggest trouble spot in Arizona (happened); rookie Bobby Massie getting starts at right tackle (happened); and the 49ers probably finishing the 2013 season with 10 victories (they would have 11).
There was only passing reference to Russell Wilson, and even then only in the context of what his selection might signal for Tarvaris Jackson. Matt Flynn was still considered the leading option to start for the Seahawks at that time.
My plan is to head from the chat over to the Seattle Seahawks' first rookie minicamp practice later in the day.
On a side note, here's what we were chatting about one year ago Friday: Colin Kaepernick possibly taking over for Alex Smith because of injury (happened); the likelihood of an extension for Chris Long (happened); quarterback remaining by far the biggest trouble spot in Arizona (happened); rookie Bobby Massie getting starts at right tackle (happened); and the 49ers probably finishing the 2013 season with 10 victories (they would have 11).
There was only passing reference to Russell Wilson, and even then only in the context of what his selection might signal for Tarvaris Jackson. Matt Flynn was still considered the leading option to start for the Seahawks at that time.
Teams have added 254 players in the draft since ESPN's NFL Power Rankings last appeared six weeks ago. We've seen Carson Palmer join the Arizona Cardinals and Darrelle Revis join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, among other changes involving veteran players.
Our voters mostly shrugged when asked to update their ballots.
No team moved more than three spots higher (Cardinals) or three spots lower (Cleveland Browns) in the rankings when John Clayton, Dan Graziano, Jamison Hensley and Ashley Fox joined me in casting ballots.
Teams made larger moves up and down individual ballots.
Clayton and I moved up the Cardinals at least seven spots to reflect the change from Ryan Lindley and John Skelton to Palmer, plus continued improvements to the offensive line. The Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets fell several spots on some ballots.
Overall, however, there wasn't a great deal of movement. We did have our disagreements. None stood out more to me than a couple involving Graziano, our blogging brother from the NFC East. He had the Saints significantly lower and the Vikings significantly higher than our other voters ranked those teams.
Dan isn't exactly buying playoff tickets in New Orleans simply because Sean Payton is returning to the Saints' sideline.
"The Saints gave up the most yards in league history in 2012," he explained. "I just think it's a much longer way back for that defense than people give it credit for. Not sure how Payton's return turns them from one of the worst defenses in the history of the sport into a playoff-caliber one in one offseason."
Fair enough. But what about that No. 8 ranking for the Christian Ponder-led Vikings? Everyone else ranked them 17th.
"I don't understand the rush to drop a 2012 playoff team that replaced Percy Harvin with Greg Jennings and just crushed the draft," Graziano said. "Why won't they be good again?"
Harvin would be the more dynamic receiver of the two, in my view. The Vikings arguably gave up too much for the 29th pick in the draft, acquired from New England. And it's debatable, at least in my mind, whether Adrian Peterson can carry the team every week the way he did down the stretch last season.
All things to discuss as the offseason continues. First, we take a closer look at the rankings with May fast approaching:
Falling (10): Cleveland Browns (-3), Buffalo Bills (-2), Chicago Bears (-2), Dallas Cowboys (-2), Detroit Lions (-2), New Orleans Saints (-2), Carolina Panthers (-1), Indianapolis Colts (-1), New England Patriots (-1), New York Jets (-1).
Rising (11): Arizona Cardinals (+3), Kansas City Chiefs (+2), New York Giants (+2), Tampa Bay Bucs (+2), Washington Redskins (+2), Cincinnati Bengals (+1), Green Bay Packers (+1), Jacksonville Jaguars (+1), Miami Dolphins (+1), Oakland Raiders (+1), Philadelphia Eagles (+1).
Unchanged (11): Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Tennessee Titans.
Deadlocked: We broke one tie. The Bears prevailed over the Saints at No. 13 based on previous ranking.
Like minds: One spot separated the highest and lowest votes for the Texans. Two votes separated highest and lowest votes for the Seahawks, 49ers, Packers, Patriots, Titans, Browns and Jets.
Agree to disagree: Ten spots separated highest and lowest votes for the Saints, the largest gap for any team. At least seven spots separated highest and lowest votes for five other teams. A look at the teams generating the largest high-low disparities:
Ranking the divisions: The NFC West remained the highest-ranked division with an 11.0 average ranking for its teams, up from 12.3 last time. Teams from the NFC North were second at 14.2, followed by the NFC South (14.6), AFC North (15.3), NFC East (17.8), AFC South (18.7), AFC West (19.4) and AFC East (21.3).
A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least five spots since last season:
Our voters mostly shrugged when asked to update their ballots.
No team moved more than three spots higher (Cardinals) or three spots lower (Cleveland Browns) in the rankings when John Clayton, Dan Graziano, Jamison Hensley and Ashley Fox joined me in casting ballots.
Teams made larger moves up and down individual ballots.
Clayton and I moved up the Cardinals at least seven spots to reflect the change from Ryan Lindley and John Skelton to Palmer, plus continued improvements to the offensive line. The Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets fell several spots on some ballots.
Overall, however, there wasn't a great deal of movement. We did have our disagreements. None stood out more to me than a couple involving Graziano, our blogging brother from the NFC East. He had the Saints significantly lower and the Vikings significantly higher than our other voters ranked those teams.
Dan isn't exactly buying playoff tickets in New Orleans simply because Sean Payton is returning to the Saints' sideline.
"The Saints gave up the most yards in league history in 2012," he explained. "I just think it's a much longer way back for that defense than people give it credit for. Not sure how Payton's return turns them from one of the worst defenses in the history of the sport into a playoff-caliber one in one offseason."
Fair enough. But what about that No. 8 ranking for the Christian Ponder-led Vikings? Everyone else ranked them 17th.
"I don't understand the rush to drop a 2012 playoff team that replaced Percy Harvin with Greg Jennings and just crushed the draft," Graziano said. "Why won't they be good again?"
Harvin would be the more dynamic receiver of the two, in my view. The Vikings arguably gave up too much for the 29th pick in the draft, acquired from New England. And it's debatable, at least in my mind, whether Adrian Peterson can carry the team every week the way he did down the stretch last season.
All things to discuss as the offseason continues. First, we take a closer look at the rankings with May fast approaching:
Falling (10): Cleveland Browns (-3), Buffalo Bills (-2), Chicago Bears (-2), Dallas Cowboys (-2), Detroit Lions (-2), New Orleans Saints (-2), Carolina Panthers (-1), Indianapolis Colts (-1), New England Patriots (-1), New York Jets (-1).
Rising (11): Arizona Cardinals (+3), Kansas City Chiefs (+2), New York Giants (+2), Tampa Bay Bucs (+2), Washington Redskins (+2), Cincinnati Bengals (+1), Green Bay Packers (+1), Jacksonville Jaguars (+1), Miami Dolphins (+1), Oakland Raiders (+1), Philadelphia Eagles (+1).
Unchanged (11): Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Diego Chargers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams, Tennessee Titans.
Deadlocked: We broke one tie. The Bears prevailed over the Saints at No. 13 based on previous ranking.
Like minds: One spot separated the highest and lowest votes for the Texans. Two votes separated highest and lowest votes for the Seahawks, 49ers, Packers, Patriots, Titans, Browns and Jets.
Agree to disagree: Ten spots separated highest and lowest votes for the Saints, the largest gap for any team. At least seven spots separated highest and lowest votes for five other teams. A look at the teams generating the largest high-low disparities:
- Saints (10): Fox ranked the Saints 10th, higher than any other voter ranked them. Graziano ranked them 20th, lower than any other voter ranked them.
- Cardinals (9): Sando and Clayton 20th, Fox 29th.
- Vikings (9): Graziano eighth, every other voter 17th.
- Steelers (8): Clayton 10th, Fox 18th.
- Panthers (7): Hensley 18th, Clayton 25th.
- Cowboys 7: Graziano 17th, Hensley 24th.
Ranking the divisions: The NFC West remained the highest-ranked division with an 11.0 average ranking for its teams, up from 12.3 last time. Teams from the NFC North were second at 14.2, followed by the NFC South (14.6), AFC North (15.3), NFC East (17.8), AFC South (18.7), AFC West (19.4) and AFC East (21.3).
A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least five spots since last season:
- Sando: Panthers (-6), Cowboys (-6), Browns (-6), Cardinals (+8).
- Clayton: Browns (-6), Cowboys (-6), Chiefs (+5), Cardinals (+7).
- Graziano: Bills (-9), Panthers (-6), Jets (-6), Eagles (+6), Chiefs (+8).
- Hensley: Vikings (+5), Ravens (+6).
- Fox: Jets (-5).

The second day of the 2013 NFL draft has come and gone. The chart below recaps picks for NFC West teams. I'll have more as the night progresses, of course.
Five trades during the first round of the 2013 NFL draft changed the dynamics for what awaits over the final six rounds.
I was curious to see how many picks each team holds by round. The chart breaks down the totals entering the second round. Shading identifies multiple picks in a round.
These teams have multiple picks by round:
These are unofficial totals based on trade information provided by the NFL.
That's it for Day 1. Back at it a bit later Friday.
I was curious to see how many picks each team holds by round. The chart breaks down the totals entering the second round. Shading identifies multiple picks in a round.
These teams have multiple picks by round:
- First: Minnesota Vikings 3, New York Jets 2, St. Louis Rams 2.
- Second: New England Patriots 2, Cincinnati Bengals 2, Buffalo Bills 2, San Francisco 49ers 2.
- Third: Miami Dolphins 2, Rams 2, Patriots 2, Dallas Cowboys 2, Tennessee Titans 2, Houston Texans 2, Kansas City Chiefs 2.
- Fourth: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2, Baltimore Ravens 2, Atlanta Falcons 2, 49ers 2.
- Fifth: Green Bay Packers 2, Seattle Seahawks 2, Dolphins 2, Ravens 2, Cleveland Browns 2, Washington Redskins 2.
- Sixth: Oakland Raiders 3, Ravens 3, Rams 2, Pittsburgh Steelers 2, 49ers 2, Bengals 2, Buccaneers 2, Texans 2, Chiefs 2.
- Seventh: Falcons 4, Seahawks 4, Philadelphia Eagles 4, Dolphins 3, Patriots 3, 49ers 3, Ravens 2, Bengals 2, New York Giants 2, Detroit Lions 2, Vikings 2, Indianapolis Colts 2, Titans 2.
These are unofficial totals based on trade information provided by the NFL.
That's it for Day 1. Back at it a bit later Friday.
Steve Drake from Sports + Numbers has put together a terrific tool for evaluating trades NFL teams make using draft choices for the 2013 and 2014 drafts.
Check it out.
This calculator allows users to evaluate trades using the traditional draft-value chart and updated charts from Chase Stuart, the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective (Kevin Meers) and Drake himself.
I'll be using this calculator to assess the trades NFC West teams make.
For fun, I put together a mythical trade in which the St. Louis Rams sent the 16th and 149th choices to the San Francisco 49ers for the 31st, 74th and 180th choices. The traditional draft-value chart developed more than two decades ago would have declared the 49ers a clear winner in such an exchange. The three more recently developed charts would have liked this trade from the Rams' perspective.
The traditional chart arguably overvalues the earliest choices. The more recently developed charts distribute value more evenly using criteria tied to career production for players relative to draft slot.
Thanks to Drake for tipping me off to his calculator.
Check it out.
This calculator allows users to evaluate trades using the traditional draft-value chart and updated charts from Chase Stuart, the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective (Kevin Meers) and Drake himself.
I'll be using this calculator to assess the trades NFC West teams make.
For fun, I put together a mythical trade in which the St. Louis Rams sent the 16th and 149th choices to the San Francisco 49ers for the 31st, 74th and 180th choices. The traditional draft-value chart developed more than two decades ago would have declared the 49ers a clear winner in such an exchange. The three more recently developed charts would have liked this trade from the Rams' perspective.
The traditional chart arguably overvalues the earliest choices. The more recently developed charts distribute value more evenly using criteria tied to career production for players relative to draft slot.
Thanks to Drake for tipping me off to his calculator.
The list of projections for NFC West teams in 2013 mock drafts includes Chance Warmack, Jonathan Cooper, Dion Jordan, Lane Johnson, D.J. Fluker, Tavon Austin, Eric Reid, Kenny Vaccaro, Cordarrelle Patterson, Justin Hunter, Alec Ogletree, Matt Elam, DeAndre Hopkins, Montee Ball, Kawann Short, Margus Hunt, Zach Ertz, D.J. Hayden and Jesse Williams.
The chart below lists those players by which mock drafters projected them to land with NFC West teams. I've attempted to order the mocks by when they were posted.
Some mock drafters try harder than others to get the picks correct exactly. Those accepting the futility of such a pursuit settle for projecting the highest possible number of players in the first round, regardless of team. Rob Rang takes that approach. Others project based on what they think teams should do. Howard Balzer has taken that approach.
Update: Don Banks has subsequently filed a new mock draft in which NFC West teams traded two of their selections. The chart still reflects his April 17 mock. To view his final mock, filed Thursday, check out the link.
Second update: Mel Kiper Jr. has updated his mock to show the 49ers selecting Reid.
The chart below lists those players by which mock drafters projected them to land with NFC West teams. I've attempted to order the mocks by when they were posted.
Some mock drafters try harder than others to get the picks correct exactly. Those accepting the futility of such a pursuit settle for projecting the highest possible number of players in the first round, regardless of team. Rob Rang takes that approach. Others project based on what they think teams should do. Howard Balzer has taken that approach.
Update: Don Banks has subsequently filed a new mock draft in which NFC West teams traded two of their selections. The chart still reflects his April 17 mock. To view his final mock, filed Thursday, check out the link.
Second update: Mel Kiper Jr. has updated his mock to show the 49ers selecting Reid.
Predicting which teams will draft specific players can be tough work.
Last year, for instance, the seven-round mock draft
from Scouts Inc. went 0-for-28 in projecting players to NFC West teams. Some of the projections lined up from the standpoint of position. For example, the Seattle Seahawks did select a linebacker in the second round, but it was Bobby Wagner, not Lavonte David. The St. Louis Rams did take a receiver in the second round, but it was Brian Quick, not Rueben Randle.
One unexpected turn in a draft can throw off subsequent projections. The 2013 draft appears particularly tough to handicap. John Schneider, the Seattle Seahawks' general manager, recently said he could not recall a draft quite like this one from that standpoint.
So, good luck, mock drafters.
The Scouts Inc. seven-round mock for 2013
provides a conversation starter as we navigate the final day before the real draft begins.
A run through the picks for NFC West teams (with a head nod to similar pieces from Kevin Seifert and Jamison Hensley for the divisions they cover):
Arizona Cardinals
Jordan's availability at No. 7 might come as a surprise. The Cardinals would, in theory, improve their outside pass rush with that selection.
The Barkley projection might catch you off-guard after Carson Palmer's arrival changed the subject away from quarterbacks. Drew Stanton has some salary guarantees, too. I'm skeptical.
The Scouts Inc. projection would extend to six the streak of drafts without Arizona selecting an offensive lineman in the first three rounds. Jordan Mills, the projected choice in the fifth round, wouldn't help the situation at guard, where the team has a need, in my view.
The Cardinals would also come away without immediate help at safety and without a speed receiver. The offense wouldn't improve enough right away through this draft.
St. Louis Rams
Safety, running back, receiver, guard and outside linebacker might be the five top needs for the Rams, not necessarily in that order.
The Scouts Inc. mock addresses each of those needs with the Rams' first five picks.
The Rams will have to balance clear needs at safety and elsewhere against a big-picture desire to continue building the roster for the long term with additional choices secured from the Washington Redskins.
At 231 pounds, Lacy would fill the Rams' need for a bigger back after the team allowed Steven Jackson out of his contract. Lacy, Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson would give the Rams a talented young committee at the position.
San Francisco 49ers
There's very little chance the 49ers will hold onto all 13 of their selections, of course. They'll have the flexibility to move forward, move back or even trade into the 2014 draft.
The projection for Brandon Williams in the third round caught my attention.
Williams is a 335-pounder from Missouri Southern State. He cranked out 38 reps in the bench press at the scouting combine, most among defensive tackles. Scouts think he projects to multiple positions across multiple schemes in the NFL. That would appeal to a team such as the 49ers.
Williams played at the NCAA Division II level. Would the 49ers use a third-round choice for a Division II prospect? They used a sixth-rounder for Western Oregon's Jason Slowey last year, the only time San Francisco has selected a Division II player over the past two drafts.
It's an interesting thought. The 49ers do have a need for a big, talented, versatile defensive lineman. They could bring along a prospect such as Williams with an eye toward 2014.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are one of two teams without a first-round selection after sending theirs to Minnesota in the Percy Harvin deal.
The second-round projection, Sio Moore of Connecticut, would give the Seahawks a weakside linebacker to play with Wagner (middle) and K.J. Wright (strong side).
The team also has plans for Cliff Avril at linebacker, at least in some capacity. There's room for a standard weakside linebacker after the Seahawks allowed Leroy Hill to reach free agency.
Tavarres King, the Georgia receiver projected in the fifth round, is known as a vertical threat. He averaged 22.6 yards per reception last season.
Last year, for instance, the seven-round mock draft
One unexpected turn in a draft can throw off subsequent projections. The 2013 draft appears particularly tough to handicap. John Schneider, the Seattle Seahawks' general manager, recently said he could not recall a draft quite like this one from that standpoint.
So, good luck, mock drafters.
The Scouts Inc. seven-round mock for 2013
A run through the picks for NFC West teams (with a head nod to similar pieces from Kevin Seifert and Jamison Hensley for the divisions they cover):
Arizona Cardinals
Jordan's availability at No. 7 might come as a surprise. The Cardinals would, in theory, improve their outside pass rush with that selection.
The Barkley projection might catch you off-guard after Carson Palmer's arrival changed the subject away from quarterbacks. Drew Stanton has some salary guarantees, too. I'm skeptical.
The Scouts Inc. projection would extend to six the streak of drafts without Arizona selecting an offensive lineman in the first three rounds. Jordan Mills, the projected choice in the fifth round, wouldn't help the situation at guard, where the team has a need, in my view.
The Cardinals would also come away without immediate help at safety and without a speed receiver. The offense wouldn't improve enough right away through this draft.
St. Louis Rams
Safety, running back, receiver, guard and outside linebacker might be the five top needs for the Rams, not necessarily in that order.
The Scouts Inc. mock addresses each of those needs with the Rams' first five picks.
The Rams will have to balance clear needs at safety and elsewhere against a big-picture desire to continue building the roster for the long term with additional choices secured from the Washington Redskins.
At 231 pounds, Lacy would fill the Rams' need for a bigger back after the team allowed Steven Jackson out of his contract. Lacy, Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson would give the Rams a talented young committee at the position.
San Francisco 49ers
There's very little chance the 49ers will hold onto all 13 of their selections, of course. They'll have the flexibility to move forward, move back or even trade into the 2014 draft.
The projection for Brandon Williams in the third round caught my attention.
Williams is a 335-pounder from Missouri Southern State. He cranked out 38 reps in the bench press at the scouting combine, most among defensive tackles. Scouts think he projects to multiple positions across multiple schemes in the NFL. That would appeal to a team such as the 49ers.
Williams played at the NCAA Division II level. Would the 49ers use a third-round choice for a Division II prospect? They used a sixth-rounder for Western Oregon's Jason Slowey last year, the only time San Francisco has selected a Division II player over the past two drafts.
It's an interesting thought. The 49ers do have a need for a big, talented, versatile defensive lineman. They could bring along a prospect such as Williams with an eye toward 2014.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are one of two teams without a first-round selection after sending theirs to Minnesota in the Percy Harvin deal.
The second-round projection, Sio Moore of Connecticut, would give the Seahawks a weakside linebacker to play with Wagner (middle) and K.J. Wright (strong side).
The team also has plans for Cliff Avril at linebacker, at least in some capacity. There's room for a standard weakside linebacker after the Seahawks allowed Leroy Hill to reach free agency.
Tavarres King, the Georgia receiver projected in the fifth round, is known as a vertical threat. He averaged 22.6 yards per reception last season.
What's going on: Our eight divisional bloggers are participating in an ongoing mock draft Tuesday. Each blogger can make selections or trade picks for the four teams in his division.
How to access: Blogger mock console, and via #bloggermock on Twitter.
The latest: I used Arizona's first-round pick, No. 7 overall, for Alabama guard Chance Warmack.
My rationale: There was some debate in my mind between targeting offensive tackle, guard, outside pass-rusher or defensive tackle in this slot. Tackles Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson were not available, however. That helped narrow the choices. I figured Warmack would have been the highest-rated offensive lineman remaining. Guard is arguably a greater need than tackle for the Cardinals if we count Levi Brown, Bobby Massie and Nate Potter as viable players at tackle. Every outside pass-rusher except for Dion Jordan remained available. All else relatively equal, I figured the Cardinals needed more help on offense than defense, so Warmack was the choice. His arrival would allow projected starting right guard Adam Snyder to back up all five positions.
What's next for the NFC West: The St. Louis Rams are scheduled to pick 16th and 22nd, followed by the San Francisco 49ers at No. 31.
How to access: Blogger mock console, and via #bloggermock on Twitter.
The latest: I used Arizona's first-round pick, No. 7 overall, for Alabama guard Chance Warmack.
My rationale: There was some debate in my mind between targeting offensive tackle, guard, outside pass-rusher or defensive tackle in this slot. Tackles Luke Joeckel, Eric Fisher and Lane Johnson were not available, however. That helped narrow the choices. I figured Warmack would have been the highest-rated offensive lineman remaining. Guard is arguably a greater need than tackle for the Cardinals if we count Levi Brown, Bobby Massie and Nate Potter as viable players at tackle. Every outside pass-rusher except for Dion Jordan remained available. All else relatively equal, I figured the Cardinals needed more help on offense than defense, so Warmack was the choice. His arrival would allow projected starting right guard Adam Snyder to back up all five positions.
What's next for the NFC West: The St. Louis Rams are scheduled to pick 16th and 22nd, followed by the San Francisco 49ers at No. 31.
#bloggermock won't be exercise in futility
April, 23, 2013
Apr 23
11:00
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
NFL players will never have to press a 45-pound bar loaded with four 45-pound plates off their chests during a game. They will never have to execute during games any number of the training exercises that help prepare their bodies for NFL life.
That doesn't render these exercises irrelevant. They're an important part of preparation.
My thinking regarding mock drafts is similar. Focusing on how many selections they correctly forecast risks missing the broader point. Mock drafts have value as exercises. They help us think through some of the nearly endless potential scenarios.
If some of the "projections" line up with how the draft actually unfolds, all the better. But who are we fooling here? Not even the NFL teams themselves could predict with accuracy how a draft will actually unfold. As noted previously, there would be 263,130,836,933,693,530,167,218,012,160,000,000 ways to order the first round if we knew which 32 players would become first-round picks. But we cannot even know that.
A year ago, ESPN's divisional NFL bloggers got together for a mock draft in which each of us made the selections for the teams we cover. It was lots of fun. We wound up projecting eight of the first 13 picks to the correct teams, five of them in the correct slots. But so what? The fun was in the process.
I'll be shocked if we come anywhere close to matching eight first-round picks to the right teams from our 2013 blogger mock draft, set to begin at noon ET.
The 2013 draft seems tougher to predict without prized quarterbacks such as Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III available as slam-dunk choices for the teams holding the first couple selections. That's OK. We're going to have fun thinking through the possibilities. Rules allow for trades, which will enhance the experience at the expense of accuracy. Matt Williamson, who scouts the NFL for ESPN.com, will critique the process in real time.
Those of us participating in the draft will face dilemmas when certain players become available later than we anticipated. Should we select them based on value, or should we stick with the selections we think are most likely to happen on draft day?
We'll post to the blog at noon ET a console allowing you to come along for the ride. I'll be making the seventh, 16th, 22nd and 31st picks for NFC West teams. Those slots could change based on trades. Last year, I traded the 12th pick from Seattle to New England for the 27th and 31st picks. I wound up having the Seahawks select Chandler Jones at No. 27. The Patriots wound up selecting him 21st instead.
That doesn't render these exercises irrelevant. They're an important part of preparation.
My thinking regarding mock drafts is similar. Focusing on how many selections they correctly forecast risks missing the broader point. Mock drafts have value as exercises. They help us think through some of the nearly endless potential scenarios.
If some of the "projections" line up with how the draft actually unfolds, all the better. But who are we fooling here? Not even the NFL teams themselves could predict with accuracy how a draft will actually unfold. As noted previously, there would be 263,130,836,933,693,530,167,218,012,160,000,000 ways to order the first round if we knew which 32 players would become first-round picks. But we cannot even know that.
A year ago, ESPN's divisional NFL bloggers got together for a mock draft in which each of us made the selections for the teams we cover. It was lots of fun. We wound up projecting eight of the first 13 picks to the correct teams, five of them in the correct slots. But so what? The fun was in the process.
I'll be shocked if we come anywhere close to matching eight first-round picks to the right teams from our 2013 blogger mock draft, set to begin at noon ET.
The 2013 draft seems tougher to predict without prized quarterbacks such as Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III available as slam-dunk choices for the teams holding the first couple selections. That's OK. We're going to have fun thinking through the possibilities. Rules allow for trades, which will enhance the experience at the expense of accuracy. Matt Williamson, who scouts the NFL for ESPN.com, will critique the process in real time.
Those of us participating in the draft will face dilemmas when certain players become available later than we anticipated. Should we select them based on value, or should we stick with the selections we think are most likely to happen on draft day?
We'll post to the blog at noon ET a console allowing you to come along for the ride. I'll be making the seventh, 16th, 22nd and 31st picks for NFC West teams. Those slots could change based on trades. Last year, I traded the 12th pick from Seattle to New England for the 27th and 31st picks. I wound up having the Seahawks select Chandler Jones at No. 27. The Patriots wound up selecting him 21st instead.
“Monday Night Football” loads up on the NFC for 2013 with an emphasis on young quarterbacks Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III.
Griffin’s recovery from knee surgery will be the key variable for a Week 1 matchup between his Washington Redskins and Chip Kelly’s Philadelphia Eagles at FedEx Field.
Wilson’s Seattle Seahawks and Kaepernick’s San Francisco 49ers each make two "MNF" appearances, but none against each other -- an upset given all the hype surrounding these NFC West rivals.
The Seahawks make their 2013 "MNF" debut on the road against the St. Louis Rams on Oct. 28 (Week 8). They face the New Orleans Saints at home in another "MNF" game, this one set for Dec. 12 (Week 13).
The 49ers make two "MNF" appearances, both in the final six weeks of the season: at Washington on Nov. 25 (Week 12) and home against the Atlanta Falcons in an NFC title game rematch on Dec. 23 (Week 16).
Miami, Chicago, Atlanta, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco, San Diego and Washington are the only teams appearing twice on a 16-week, 17-game "MNF" schedule featuring 21 appearances by NFC teams. That means Wilson, Kaepernick, Griffin, Jay Cutler, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill and Philip Rivers are the only projected starting quarterbacks set to appear more than once.
Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, Tony Romo, Michael Vick, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton are among the starting QBs scheduled to appear once. Five of the six teams not appearing on the "MNF" schedule -- Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Kansas City and Tennessee -- hail from the AFC. Arizona will also make no "MNF" appearances.
Griffin’s recovery from knee surgery will be the key variable for a Week 1 matchup between his Washington Redskins and Chip Kelly’s Philadelphia Eagles at FedEx Field.
Wilson’s Seattle Seahawks and Kaepernick’s San Francisco 49ers each make two "MNF" appearances, but none against each other -- an upset given all the hype surrounding these NFC West rivals.
The Seahawks make their 2013 "MNF" debut on the road against the St. Louis Rams on Oct. 28 (Week 8). They face the New Orleans Saints at home in another "MNF" game, this one set for Dec. 12 (Week 13).
The 49ers make two "MNF" appearances, both in the final six weeks of the season: at Washington on Nov. 25 (Week 12) and home against the Atlanta Falcons in an NFC title game rematch on Dec. 23 (Week 16).
Miami, Chicago, Atlanta, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco, San Diego and Washington are the only teams appearing twice on a 16-week, 17-game "MNF" schedule featuring 21 appearances by NFC teams. That means Wilson, Kaepernick, Griffin, Jay Cutler, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill and Philip Rivers are the only projected starting quarterbacks set to appear more than once.
Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, Tony Romo, Michael Vick, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton are among the starting QBs scheduled to appear once. Five of the six teams not appearing on the "MNF" schedule -- Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Kansas City and Tennessee -- hail from the AFC. Arizona will also make no "MNF" appearances.
A few thoughts in relation to how much 2013 salary-cap space NFL teams have committed to quarterbacks currently on their rosters:
- Arizona Cardinals: The figure is a very manageable $4.9 million, but that doesn't count the $6 million in charges remaining from Kevin Kolb's terminated contract. The Cardinals would want to keep in mind the Kolb-related charges when determining how much to pay a veteran quarterback, should the team seek to add one.
- St. Louis Rams: Having Sam Bradford signed under the previous labor agreement is costing the Rams much more than other teams are paying for highly drafted quarterbacks selected more recently. However, the Rams like Bradford, and if you're going to overpay for a position, quarterback isn't a bad one to single out.
- San Francisco 49ers: Great situation. No team has less cap money tied up in quarterbacks. The deals for Colin Kaepernick and Scott Tolzien count less than one-third what Kolb's contract is counting against the Cardinals' cap. Trading backup quarterback Alex Smith saved the 49ers more than $8 million in cap charges this year. The second-round choice San Francisco received in return for Smith will allow the 49ers to add a young, talented player at low cost.
- Seattle Seahawks: Teams value players individually. They also budget for positions. The Seahawks can feel OK about Matt Flynn's salary, which is on the high side for backup quarterbacks, because Russell Wilson earns far less than most starters. Seattle is allocating $7,931,085 in 2013 cap space for quarterbacks, below the $11,271,900 average for NFL teams. So, while removing Flynn from the equation would make sense in some ways, his contract can fit in the bigger picture.
- Brady situation:The contract for New England's Tom Brady contains $57 million in guaranteed money, most in the NFL. But because Brady was willing to push much of the guaranteed money into later years, his deal counts a relatively manageable $13.8 million against the cap this year. That is how the Patriots rank only 10th among teams in 2013 cap space allocated for quarterbacks.
- Idzik's challenge: The New York Jets' situation at quarterback might be the worst in the NFL from a financial standpoint. Mark Sanchez has significant guaranteed money in his contract. As a result, the Jets rank sixth in cap space for quarterbacks after ranking 31st in Total QBR and 30th in NFL passer rating last season. The team hired John Idzik from the Seahawks to fix the cap mess and help rebuild the roster, but options are limited in the short term.
- Structure key: The Baltimore Ravens rank only 24th in 2013 cap space for quarterbacks despite recently re-signing Joe Flacco to a big-money extension. The big cap charges are coming due in the future. The 49ers and Seahawks will eventually have to reward their young quarterbacks with richer deals. When that time comes, they'll have the option of structuring the contract to avoid large first-year charges.






Rd. 4-7: April 27, noon ET
