NFC West: San Francisco 49ers

Those familiar with John Clayton's hilarious "SportsCenter" promo might appreciate another unlikely visual: Clayton jumping off a wrestling ring's turnbuckle to deliver a crushing blow against an opponent. We worked to make that happen, at least figuratively, during a 710ESPN Seattle conversation Monday with co-hosts Brock Huard and Danny O'Neil.

Clayton and I delivered some tag-team shots on O'Neil for his take on the St. Louis Rams' decision to delay contract agreements with rookies, a strategy the team said it employed to educate players on financial responsibility.

From there, we covered the Seattle Seahawks-San Francisco 49ers rivalry, offering thoughts on whether it could inhabit the top spot for pro sports rivalries from a Seattle perspective. We doubled back to discuss the Rams one more time, conspicuously omitting references to a fourth NFC West team.

There are still four teams in the NFC West, right? I'll try to get confirmation while passing along the 710ESPN audio link.

One question we considered: Is Earl Thomas the Seahawks' best player regardless of position? I made the case for yes. Clayton made the case for Richard Sherman.

Another: Do the 49ers rank fourth in the division at wide receiver? ESPN's Matt Williamson ranked them third during our post-draft review April 30. That was before the 49ers lost top receiver Michael Crabtree to a torn Achilles' tendon.
Tensions have run a little high on the NFC West blog lately as players and coaches from the various teams have gone back and forth through media.

The reality is that most of the players and coaches involved would treat each other politely in another setting. This was the case during March when San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh and his Seattle Seahawks counterpart, Pete Carroll, hung out like old pals during the NFL owners meeting.

It was in this vein that Jed York, the 49ers' CEO and face of ownership, blessed the San Francisco Giants' recent decision to honor Carroll with a personalized jersey.

"Yeah, we obviously compete with the Seahawks and they are going to be very, very tough to beat this year," York told 95.7 FM The Game, "but Pete is a San Francisco guy. He loves the city of San Francisco. The Giants can honor Pete. That is something they are more than rightfully able to do. ... I don't take any offense to that or worry about that at all."

Matt from Berkeley, Calif., used the NFC West mailbag to point me toward the interview, which I had not heard before Monday.

"It's worthy of a blog post about it for the many Niner fans that did not get a chance to hear it," Matt wrote.

The interview was worth a listen, for sure. York covered familiar ground, including the potential for summer practices involving the 49ers and Oakland Raiders. He also reflected on his ownership tenure, noting that he has tried to admit mistakes instead of trying to justify them.

"The first decision I made as president of the 49ers, I hired Mike Singletary," York said. "I thought Mike was the right guy at the time. He turned out not to be the right fit."

The dilemma was clear. "Do I try to preserve my image and try to show that that was the right decision, or do you own up to it?" York said. The 49ers took the latter route, firing Singletary before hiring Harbaugh.

York showed a lighter side throughout the interview, including when hosts Ric Bucher and Chris Townsend alluded to an interview with tight-lipped general manager Trent Baalke.

"I'm sure he said a lot," York deadpanned.

York promised to prepare a Baalke impersonation for a later show, suggesting that Baalke and the Bob Einstein character "Super Dave Osborne" had to be "long, lost cousins" -- the type of reference a CEO makes during a radio program only within the context of a healthy front-office situation.
NFL rosters are mostly set until training camp, making this a good time to revisit a subject we hit pretty hard after the draft: how much raw playing time from last season each NFC West team will have to replace in 2013.

A few highlights and notes:
  • Most turnover: The Arizona Cardinals return 28.9 percent of their 2012 snaps at quarterback, the lowest percentage for any team at any position group. The St. Louis Rams are at 29.6 percent returning at running back. The Cardinals' secondary is at 30.8 percent returning, followed by the Cardinals' running backs at 36.9 percent. Those are the only four positions with less than 40 percent of 2012 snaps remaining on the roster. Arizona has the lowest percentage returning overall (60.9 percent).
  • Least turnover: The Rams have 100 percent of their quarterback snaps from 2012 still on the roster. The 49ers' running backs (99.4 percent) were next. Nine of the team's position groups return at least 90 percent.
  • Injury factor: The percentages would be lower at some positions if we removed from consideration players who might not be available because of injuries. Those players include receiver Michael Crabtree, running back Kendall Hunter, receiver Kyle Williams and receiver Mario Manningham of the 49ers and defensive ends Chris Clemons and Greg Scruggs of the Seahawks. Tight end Anthony McCoy remains with Seattle, but he is on injured reserve, so I did not count his snaps as returning.
  • Suspension factor: Several NFC West players are facings suspensions to open the 2013 season. I did not remove their 2012 snap totals from consideration because all of the players are expected to factor for their teams this season.
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Good morning, NFC West. We're going to dive into this first week following offseason programs with playoff predictions from ESPN analyst Mark Schlereth.

The video atop this item features Schlereth's thoughts on the playoff teams from last season. He's taking the Seattle Seahawks to win the NFC West. He's also projecting a postseason berth for the San Francisco 49ers.

The St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals went without a mention. That is probably just fine by @Dave_Chm_11, who asked me to "please keep sleeping on the Cardinals," even though I think Arizona will be the most improved team in the NFC West after making the most significant move in the division this offseason.

A couple of the places listing NFL odds for the 2013 season show the 49ers as slight betting favorites over the Seahawks to win the division, followed by the Rams. The Cardinals are listed as much longer shots in both places. That probably reflects perceptions about the team lingering from last season, when Arizona lost 11 of its final 12 games.

Perceptions can change quickly, but usually not during June and July, when players are off and rosters are pretty much set.
Dave Boling's profile of former Seattle Seahawks owner John Nordstrom is worth a read for many reasons. One stands out in an NFC West context: confirmation that former Cincinnati Bengals coach Paul Brown made it tough for Bill Walsh to find a head coaching job.

Nordstrom's uncle, Lloyd, was promoting Walsh as a candidate to be the Seahawks' first head coach in 1976. Jack Patera was the choice ultimately. Walsh had worked on Brown's staff for years without getting a chance to become a head coach. He would win three Super Bowls with the San Francisco 49ers, but only years after Brown had retired.

"Lloyd got on a plane and saw Paul Brown," John Nordstrom told Boling. "He wanted to get clearance to interview Bill Walsh for the head coaching job. But Brown told him, 'Oh, you don’t want him, he’s a terrible alcoholic, we’re having all kinds of problems with him.' Lloyd hadn't been in the league before, so he bought what Brown was telling him. It wasn’t true ... [Brown] just didn’t want to lose him, and we never got the chance to interview Bill Walsh."

Walsh told the Los Angeles Times in 2006 that Brown had worked against him that way for years.

"All the way through I had opportunities, and I never knew about them," Walsh told the Times then. "And then when I left him, he called whoever he thought was necessary to keep me out of the NFL."

Boling's piece on Nordstrom, one of the most humble and gentlemanly figures I've encountered while covering the NFL, contains quite a few other historical tidbits. Hope you enjoy it on this Father's Day.
video Exchanges involving San Francisco 49ers safety Craig Dahl and his former St. Louis Rams teammates became the main event in NFC West smack talk over the past week.

Brandon Browner vs. Jim Harbaugh deserves a spot on the undercard. I offered initial thoughts during the NFC West chat Thursday in response to a question about whether Browner, the Seattle Seahawks' right cornerback, had "stepped over the line" by suggesting he'd put his hands around the neck of the 49ers' head coach if the two lined up against one another as players. The video atop this entry features additional thoughts via my conversation with ESPN's Michele Steele.

Dave Mahler of Sports Radio 950 KJR in Seattle has the audio for those interested in taking a listen. Harbaugh had previously commented on multiple Seattle suspensions for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing drugs. Harbaugh cautioned against accepting at face value reports that the prescription drug Adderall was the reason for suspensions.

Browner served a suspension for PEDs late last season. Weeks earlier, Harbaugh had publicly questioned the tactics Browner and Seattle's other cornerbacks used against the 49ers. That is the context for the comments Browner made. In this case, as in the one involving Dahl and the Rams, none of the people making comments were making them directly to each other. Each was responding to what had been relayed to him.
John Clayton's column about the need for pass-rush depth provided the foundation for a discussion Saturday with strong application in the NFC West.

We covered that ground, recapped each offseason in the NFC West and discussed highlights from my recent trip to the St. Louis Rams.

It's all right here on 710ESPN Seattle, beginning at the 29:33 mark.
A newly re-signed Tarvaris Jackson will compete against Brady Quinn for the No. 2 job behind Seattle Seahawks starting quarterback Russell Wilson.

The way those players performed in their most recent starts suggests the team would be better off with Jackson as the starter if Wilson became unavailable.

We could make that case by noting that Jackson posted a 7-7 record with Seattle in 2011, his most recent season as a starter, while Quinn went 1-7 with Kansas City last season. But if we wanted a breakdown more specific to the quarterbacks, we could revisit a method we used when estimating NFC West quarterback values about five weeks ago.

That method suggests Wilson's performance for the full 2012 season provided about 3.8 additional victories relative to the 2011 version of Jackson and an additional 6.5 victories relative to the 2012 version of Quinn, based upon Total QBR scores for those players.

Teams posting Total QBR scores around 50 can expect to win about half the time. That baseline allows for calculating how many added victories a quarterback provides or takes away over the course of a 16-game season and relative to another player.

In the Seattle example, we start by averaging the single-game QBR scores for Wilson last season. The result was 63.9. We then average the single-game scores for the 14 games Jackson started in 2011 (40.1) and subtract the total from 63.9. The result rounds to 23.77. We then take 23.77 percent of 16 games to determine how many victories Wilson would provide over Jackson, based upon how each played in his last season as a starter.

By this measure, Wilson added 3.8 victories over what Jackson would have provided over a 16-game schedule if he had been the Seahawks' starter instead of Wilson, and had he performed the way he did in 2011. The calculation for Quinn goes like this: Wilson's average QBR score (63.9) minus Quinn's average QBR score last season (23.0875) equals 40.8125, which taken as a percentage of 16 games equals 6.53 additional victories with Wilson.

The difference between Jackson in relation to Wilson (minus 3.8 victories) and Quinn in relation to Wilson (minus-6.5 victories) works out to 2.7 victories -- say, the difference between 8-8 and 5-11 if the team played Jackson instead of Quinn over a full season.

The differences could become even more pronounced if we considered other factors. For example, Wilson had a 78.2 average QBR score over his final nine games. He might be more apt to play near that level in the future than how he played in the first seven games of his career. Also, Jackson played much of the 2011 season with a torn pectoral muscle. Taking those things into account would change the calculations.

Note that averaging the single-game QBR scores for Wilson produced a number (63.9) that is lower than his cumulative QBR score for the season (69.6, as displayed in the first chart). We would see similar disparities if we compared a basketball player's average game-by-game shooting percentages to his cumulative percentages. Making both foul shots in one game and missing all four attempts in another would produce a 50 percent average and a 33 percent rate.

The chart below shows stats for current NFC West backup quarterbacks since 2008.

» NFC Eight in the Box: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

The major question facing each team in the NFC West as summer break looms:

Arizona Cardinals: What form will the defense take? Todd Bowles is the new coordinator after taking over for Ray Horton. Bowles said from the beginning he would only "tweak" the 3-4 scheme Horton put into place with success. Defensive lineman Darnell Dockett has responded to those tweaks in a manner suggesting his life will be completely different -- and much better -- as an attacking, up-the-field force. From the outside, it looks like the Cardinals have acquired personnel suited to play in a scheme with 4-3 tendencies. Perhaps we're overthinking things here. I'm definitely curious to see how the defense comes together and whether Bowles can build upon the solid foundation Horton seemed to establish.

St. Louis Rams: Does the team need some veteran depth? The Rams have the NFL's youngest roster. They're young just about everywhere but along the offensive line, where Scott Wells, Harvey Dahl and Jake Long provide some seasoning. Depth at linebacker and safety appears a bit tenuous, however, and that has led the Rams to consider free-agent options. Linebackers Takeo Spikes, Will Witherspoon and Chris Gocong have joined safeties Sherrod Martin, Matt Giordano and Abram Elam as free-agent visitors to Rams headquarters, according to Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

San Francisco 49ers: How will the wide receiver situation shake out? Second-year receiver A.J. Jenkins performed to positive reviews during the recently completed organized team activities and minicamp. Ricardo Lockette was another young receiver catching the 49ers' attention. The team has question marks at the position while Michael Crabtree recovers from a torn Achilles tendon. The 49ers ran former Indianapolis Colts receiver Austin Collie through a workout this week. Collie is recovering from knee surgery. He has a history of concussions. The 49ers are lining up contingencies, it appears, as they prepare for training camp.

Seattle Seahawks: Who becomes the No. 2 quarterback behind Russell Wilson? Tarvaris Jackson's addition this week gives the team two veteran quarterbacks competing for the job. The Seahawks posted a 7-7 record when Jackson was their starter during the 2011 season, before Wilson arrived. Brady Quinn posted a 1-7 record while starting for Kansas City last season. Jackson already knows the Seahawks' offense. He has strong relationships with Seattle players and with offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. He looks like the favorite for the job, even though Quinn has been the one practicing with the team this offseason.
Good morning, NFC West. We've made it through organized team activities and minicamps for the 2013 offseason. Now, the waiting becomes more monotonous.

Training camps are more than five weeks away in most cases. Generally, not much is going to happen between minicamps and training camps.



For coaches, this can be a stressful time as players disperse with time on their hands and money in their pockets.

The St. Louis Rams had risk management in mind when they waited until Thursday before signing all seven of their draft choices.

"We just feel like they'll be better suited if we can take them through step A and B of Financial Planning 101 before we give ‘em the money," coach Jeff Fisher told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch late last week, when all seven draft choices remained without signed contracts. "It’s just that simple. We’ll get them all signed and we’re communicating with them."

Fisher was right. The Rams finished their final offseason practice session before training camp Thursday. Within hours, they announced that all seven 2013 draft choices had signed their contracts. Simple as that.

The labor agreement has removed nearly all the negotiating from the signing process. Player values are clearly slotted by how early or late a player was selected. It's not significant news when a player signs his rookie contract in the NFL these days. It'll be news if a draft choice hasn't signed in time for training camp.

We should find out in the near future when teams plan to open their camps. The NFL has spelled out camps scheduling rules as follows:

"Clubs are permitted to open preseason training camp for rookies and first-year players no earlier than 22 days prior to the club's first preseason game. Veteran players (defined as a player with at least one pension-credited season) other than quarterbacks or 'injured players' (as defined in CBA Article 21, Section 6) may report to a club's preseason training camp no earlier than 15 days prior to the club's first scheduled preseason game or July 15, whichever is later.

"Veteran quarterbacks and injured players may be required to report to the club's preseason training camp no earlier than five days immediately prior to the mandatory reporting date for all other veteran players, provided the club has already opened (or simultaneously opens) its official preseason training camp for all rookies and first-year players.

"A three-day acclimation period will apply to players who are on a club's roster up to and including the mandatory veteran reporting date. Players who join the roster after that date may practice (including wearing pads) and play immediately after passing a physical."
San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh provided clarification Thursday regarding the St. Louis Rams' ability to read the 49ers' run-pass intentions before the snap when the teams played last season.


Harbaugh said the problems were most evident during the teams' Week 10 game at Candlestick Park. That game ended in a tie. The teams played again three weeks later, with the Rams winning that game, 16-13 in overtime.

"Yeah, after the first game we played the Rams, we saw that we were doing that," Harbaugh told reporters Thursday.

Harbaugh said the 49ers adjusted and there were fewer problems in the rematch.

Safety Craig Dahl, who signed with the 49ers this offseason after playing for St. Louis, said earlier in the week that the Rams knew the 49ers' intentions by watching for players to "tip" run or pass by their actions before the snap. Rams middle linebacker James Laurinaitis subsequently said the "tips" allowed the Rams to ignore play-action fakes in some instances.

The chart shows the 49ers' play-action stats against the Rams by game, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Three sacks during the Week 10 game dragged down the 49ers' yards per drop-back while contributing to a 20.2 out of 100 Total QBR score (50 is average). The QBR score was 98.8 in the second game in part because there were zero sacks. Also, 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick broke a crucial 50-yard run on one of these play-action plays.

Harbaugh said the information Dahl provided regarding the situation confirmed what the 49ers knew through scouting. He also said it's pretty common for teams to gain advantages that way during a season.
ST. LOUIS -- The St. Louis Rams figured former safety Craig Dahl would share strategy secrets with his new team, the San Francisco 49ers.

Some thought Dahl crossed a line Wednesday by publicly suggesting the Rams had figured out run-pass tendencies through certain giveaways.

"The way he kind of flaunted it, like, 'Yeah, the reason why the Rams were competitive was because we knew all that' -- yeah, but we also made some plays," Rams middle linebacker James Laurinaitis said after practice Thursday. "We can know what they are doing, but you still have to do it better than them. That got under Cortland [Finnegan's] skin."

Did it ever. Finnegan, the Rams' starting cornerback, lashed out at Dahl via Twitter, calling him "lame" and promising the Rams would exploit him when the teams play during the upcoming season.

Finnegan missed practice Thursday to rest a sore calf. He was not available for interviews. Laurinaitis filled in some of the blanks.

Alex Boone, the 49ers' right guard, apparently helped tip off run or pass in some situations based on how he was aligned.

"They had a couple guys who had some," Laurinaitis said. "I'm not going to name them, because I'm hoping Dahl didn't share everything. I'm sure he did.

"Every game, you can find little things here and there. They just had more than normal. And when you play a good team like that and you are able to find a good tip, it helps every time you can find something that tells you run or pass."

Such information does have limitations.

"Hell, you can know it's pass every time when you're playing Aaron Rodgers and it ain't going to help you," Laurinaitis said.

The 49ers, meanwhile, are much more formidable in the running game than are the Packers and most teams. While the pass often sets up the run in the modern NFL, San Francisco can create opportunities in the passing game through the threat of a ground game opponents have called as multidimensional as any in the league.

"They do a lot with running and play-action," Laurinaitis said. "It helps you when you know it's play-action vs. a run. You're not going to get sucked up as much. You react to the pass better, faster."

While the Rams appeared unconcerned by the 49ers' play-action fakes during St. Louis' 16-13 victory in Week 13 last season, San Francisco averaged 11.9 yards per drop-back off play-action, its third-highest average of the season, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Colin Kaepernick, the 49ers' quarterback, completed 8 of 11 passes for 93 yards on play-action attempts against the Rams in that game.

However, the 49ers' running backs averaged a season-low 2.4 yards per rushing attempt against he Rams that day. They carried 27 times for 64 yards.

Rams defensive end Chris Long said he respected Dahl.

"The comments I saw from Craig were really generic," Long said. "It didn't blow me away. I can understand how somebody could feel a certain way about it, but I respect Craig Dahl and wish him the best."

As for discussing the situation publicly?

"To talk about it with the media is not something I would do," Long said, "but to each his own."
We have rightfully focused at times over the years on coordinator continuity for NFC West quarterbacks.

Alex Smith famously played with coordinators Mike McCarthy, Norv Turner, Jim Hostler, Mike Martz, Jimmy Raye, Mike Johnson and Greg Roman while with the San Francisco 49ers from 2005 through last season.

Sam Bradford has bounced from Pat Shurmur to Josh McDaniels to Brian Schottenheimer during three seasons with the St. Louis Rams.

The dynamic works both ways. Some coordinators have bounced from one quarterback to another, preventing them from getting the best feel for their players. Playcallers and quarterbacks are most comfortable -- and presumably most effective -- when they've had time to figure out one another. Coordinators get a better feel for players' strengths, weaknesses and preferences. Quarterbacks more fully understand how their coordinators are approaching specific situations.

That line of thinking came to mind this week while watching Schottenheimer coach Bradford during the Rams' organized team activities. Schottenheimer has worked for only two teams since 2006 and he was offensive coordinator both times. But he has run through five primary quarterbacks during that time: Chad Pennington, Kellen Clemens, Brett Favre and Mark Sanchez before joining Bradford in St. Louis.

"The things we are able to do starting this offseason, we are 1,000 years ahead of where we were last year," Schottenheimer said following a recent practice. "It's been fun to push Sam and have Sam push me, too, in terms of, 'Hey, I can take more.' We're both enjoying having some stability."

The chart associates current NFC West offensive playcallers with their primary quarterbacks since 2006, the first year any of the four was a coordinator. I've listed Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians instead of coordinator Harold Goodwin because Arians plans to call the plays. Arians has also called plays continuously since 2007.

Quarterbacks are the most important pieces for any team, but I thought it would be interesting to view these situations from the playcallers' perspectives. Every NFC West team but Arizona returns the same coordinator-quarterback combination from the end of last season.

A heads up: We're moving the NFC West chat from its usual time to Friday at 2 p.m. ET.

Here's the link in advance.

Our usual Thursday slot doesn't work this week because I'll be watching the St. Louis Rams' practice session at that time.
ST. LOUIS -- Good morning, NFC West. I'll be heading over to St. Louis Rams headquarters shortly as players transition from organized Twitter activities to organized team activities, also known as OTAs.

First, though, let's take a quick look around the division.
  • Cards' OL moves: Through injuries, misfortune and questionable planning, the Arizona Cardinals finished last season with offensive linemen D'Anthony Batiste and Pat McQuistan in their lineup. Neither is employed in the NFL at present even though each team is allowed to carry on its roster 90 players, 37 more than during the regular season. It's refreshing to see recent draft choices Nate Potter, Bobby Massie and Jonathan Cooper factoring along with 2007 first-rounder Levi Brown as coaches experiment with various combinations.
  • Big names, small injuries: Reports suggest there's no reason to worry about seemingly minor injuries that recently sidelined Seattle Seahawks tight end Zach Miller and San Francisco 49ers receiver Anquan Boldin during practice. Those are two valuable veterans, however, so any time they miss practice, it's at least a note around here.
  • Mangini watch: 49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio told reporters he hasn't talked football with new senior offensive consultant Eric Mangini, who built his reputation on the defensive side of the ball. Fangio: "We haven’t to this point, and right now he's knee-deep into the offensive side trying to learn our offense. So, it's nothing that’s been planned that that would happen. But, just sitting around the table eating lunch or something one day, you might have a conversation. But, that's not the intent."
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