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The San Francisco 49ers are six times as popular as the St. Louis Rams, 4.8 times as popular as the Arizona Cardinals and 2.6 times as popular as the Seattle Seahawks.

That was one conclusion drawn from the latest ESPN Sports Poll gauging fans' favorite NFL teams.

Pollsters conduct 1,500 monthly telephone interviews with a nationally representative sample of Americans age 12 and older. Edwin Roman, ESPN's director of Consumer Insights, passed along the data ranking teams by which percentage of respondents favored them.

The Dallas Cowboys were first at 8.8 percent in first-quarter polling for 2012. The Green Bay Packers (7.2) were second, followed by the New York Giants (7.1), Pittsburgh Steelers (7.1) and New England Patriots (6.8). There was a big drop to the sixth-ranked Chicago Bears (4.2). New Orleans was next at 4.1, followed by the 49ers at 4.0.

The second chart sums the percentages for teams by divisional affiliation (10.3 percent identified no favorite team).

The NFC West ranked eighth, ahead of only the AFC South. Only the Jacksonville Jaguars (0.4 percent) trailed the Rams in popularity.

This would seem to confirm suspicions that the NFC West is not America's Division, and America's Team is indeed the Cowboys, not the 49ers, Seahawks, Cardinals or Rams.

The polling does match up with my perceptions for fan interactivity on the NFC West blog. We hear from more 49ers and Seahawks fans than Cardinals or Rams fans in the comments sections, chats, mailbag, etc. The polling also correlates with how long each NFC West team has resided in its current market.

That is also reflected in the AFC South's standing as the least popular division. Indianapolis and Tennessee are relocated franchises. Jacksonville and Houston are relatively recent expansion franchises.

I suspect this polling data might not be popular among Cardinals and Rams fans, but if the info is accurate, the backlash will be minimal.

Note: ESPN Sports Polls contacts Americans year-round via land line and cell phones in English and Spanish, reaching 390,000 Americans since 1994.

» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for Seattle in 2012:

Dream scenario (12-4): Matt Flynn's fourth-quarter comeback victory over Green Bay in Week 3 serves notice in prime time that Seattle made the right move in signing the Packers' former backup. Sure, Russell Wilson lit up opponents during the preseason, but everyone figured coach Pete Carroll would go with Flynn heading into the season. Seattle hadn't been able to finish games on offense previously, but the vibe is completely different now. Flynn isn't perfect, of course, and he doesn't have to be. He has the NFL's most physical running back in Marshawn Lynch, two viable tight ends, a healthy Sidney Rice and a downright nasty offensive line.

Finally healthy, left tackle Russell Okung joins fellow 2010 draftees Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor in the Pro Bowl. Second-rounder Golden Tate won't be making the trip, but preseason rumors of a potential breakout season weren't far off.

With the defense allowing only 16 points per game, Flynn doesn't have to be a hero most weeks. By midseason, it's all Carroll can do to refrain from gloating over the team's then-controversial decision to draft Bruce Irvin in the first round. Irvin's two-sack game at San Francisco on Thursday night in Week 7 gives him 5.5 for the season, matching what the 49ers' Aldon Smith had at the same point in 2011. Irvin doesn't quite equal the 14-sack total Smith posted as a rookie, but he's not far behind. The national pundits learn the hard way what should have been evident already: Carroll and the Seahawks' personnel department know what they want on defense.

A trip to Green Bay for the NFC Championship Game leaves the Seahawks thinking big.

Nightmare scenario (6-10): Flynn isn't the answer, Wilson isn't ready and Carroll pays a high price for failing to seriously address the quarterback position until his third season with the team. It's hard for some to believe the Seahawks would miss Tarvaris Jackson, but that is the case as Flynn predictably struggles in his first full season as an NFL starter. No one cares about the division title Carroll won a couple years ago. Critics cite his 7-9, 7-9 and 6-10 records in building a case for his dismissal. They also gloat over the growing pains Irvin experienced while transitioning from West Virginia to the NFL.

Lynch's diminished production makes him an easy target for those suggesting a big contract led to complacency. Some recall Shaun Alexander's post-contract demise. But there are other reasons. Another injury-plagued season on the offensive line becomes a primary culprit. Okung, James Carpenter and John Moffitt were coming off season-ending surgeries. Rice, the team's most talented receiver, had procedures on both shoulders. Banking on so many injured offensive players was understandable after the Tom Cable-coached line worked near-miracles in 2011. But every staff has its limits. Giving some of fullback Michael Robinson's snaps to new tight end Kellen Winslow also might have affected the ground game.

The defense does enough for Carroll to keep his job, but the team heads toward the 2013 draft needing to find its next quarterback -- or else.

Alex Smith's comments referencing Cam Newton, featured here and elsewhere, have caught the Carolina Panthers' attention.

Perhaps they have been overblown. Smith isn't the type to talk trash or disrespect an opponent. He did seem to cross a line when mentioning Newton by name in a manner that diminished Newton's accomplishments as a rookie quarterback.

"Alex smith, don't hate on Cam Bc your stats would've gotten u cut if Peyton decided to come 2 San Fran.Truth b told..That's after a 13-3 yr.," Panthers linebacker Jon Beason said through his verified Twitter account.

Smith isn't on Twitter, to my knowledge, but I would expect some sort of response or clarification from him at some point. He'll be asked about it, for sure.

As for Beason, he's naturally going to stand up for his teammate. Using the 49ers' interest in Peyton Manning against Smith served that purpose, although Manning's status as an all-time great attracted lots of teams, not just San Francisco. Beason has been a better linebacker than Smith has been a quarterback, but if the Panthers could upgrade at his position, they would consider making a move as well. It's what teams do.

Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News says Randy Moss has found friends on the 49ers' defense, not just their offense. Linebacker Patrick Willis: "He's my best fishing buddy. We went fishing a couple times now, and I've out-fished him both times. ... It's an honor to have a guy like that on our team. For people to say the things they said about him, that's in the past. All we know is what we've seen here, and that's all that counts to us. So far he's been unbelievable."

Also from Inman: Smith's thoughts on the 49ers' pursuit of Peyton Manning. Smith: "It was more strange that anything. Looking back, I’d been in constant communication the entire time with Jim (Harbaugh) and Trent Baalke, even before the season ended, about a new contract and going to get things worked out. We were doing the back and forth, them and my agent. The contract was out there. It was about getting the language right and the numbers right. Then all of a sudden, you think you’re close, free agency is approaching and the deal is about to get done, then obviously a little strange to get the Peyton Manning thing thrown in there. But the thing through all of it, Jim has always been up front with me, has never lied to me and that’s what I’ve appreciated that through all of it."

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com says the Cardinals signed free-agent linebacker Quentin Groves from Oakland. Urban: "There has been speculation the Cards will bring back Clark Haggans, who has been with the Cards since 2008. Regardless, the team probably needed to add depth at outside linebacker, where much is unproven. Sam Acho and O’Brien Schofield are the projected starters, but beyond that are untested veterans Brandon Williams and Antonio Coleman, along with undrafted rookies Zach Nash and Broderick Binns." Noted: Groves' signing did make me wonder whether Haggans remained in Arizona's plans at this point. But with only 2.5 career sacks and none since 2008, Groves wouldn't seem to replace what Haggans provided. Then again, Haggans had only three sacks in 16 starts last season, his lowest single-season total as a starter.

Kathleen Nelson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch checks in with Rams running back Steven Jackson, who compares the team's new offense to the one it ran in 2010. Jackson: "This offense is very similar, not identical. The learning curve has not been too harsh on myself. Sam (Bradford) is looking good, our receivers, we have a deep group that is very competitive that's going to not only help us, but is also going to bring the best out of each individual guy. All in all, as an offense we're looking good. And especially Coach (Paul T.) Boudreau up front, what he's doing with the offensive line is very impressive as well." Noted: The Rams are banking on Boudreau to help Jason Smith and others realize more of their potential on the line.

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com offers notes from the most recent organized team activities. On rookie Bobby Wagner: "The team’s second-round draft choice continues to work at middle linebacker with the No. 1 defense, and also is seeing time in the No. 1 nickel. Today, he showed why by making an impressive read and an even more athletic move to intercept a Jackson pass over the middle. Wagner’s play came in the same 7-on-7 drill where Pro Bowl strong safety Kam Chancellor jumped a Russell Wilson pass to make an interception along the sideline."

Also from Farnsworth: Kellen Winslow describes himself as the "knight in the chess game" for creating mismatches. Noted: Winslow does almost resemble a large wide receiver.

Percy Allen of the Seattle Times says Pete Carroll remains vague on the Seahawks' quarterback competition. Noted: That will continue in the absence of meaningful evidence. It's tough to get more than an early feel watching non-contact practices.

Steve Kelley of the Seattle Times explains why the Seahawks wanted Winslow. General manager John Schneider: "He's a guy that brings that energy and passion that fits our group and our locker room right now. Kellen is so passionate about the game. He really is all ball. And those are the kind of guys you feel like it's worth bringing into your program. He's the type of guy who wants to be great."

The most recent NFC West chat is heading into overtime thanks to Jeff from Seattle.

"I enjoyed it when the chat wrap used questions that weren't answered," Jeff wrote. "Any plans to bring that back to the feature?"

Sometimes there's not time, but this time, there is. It's May 24 and we -- OK, I -- recently ran a weather report, after all. The first section begins with a question about Kellen Winslow, but the answer touches on teams beyond Seattle. It also lets me break out a chart, always a plus.

Robert from Georgia asked whether Kellen Winslow's addition in Seattle will lead the Seahawks to use more personnel groupings with two tight ends.

"The way New England uses Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez is unbelievable," he wrote, "and while I am in no way trying to compare, does the addition of Winslow increase Zach Miller's production? Could Seattle have the second-best two-tight-end set in the NFL?"

That sounds optimistic. I expect the San Francisco 49ers to field the best two-tight end tandem in the division once again. Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker are very good together. Each is faster than his Seattle counterpart, although Winslow has obviously been more productive than Walker as a receiver (with quite a few more opportunities).

I've put together a chart showing how frequently NFC West teams and Winslow's former team, Tampa Bay, used two or more tight ends. John Carlson's injury suppressed the numbers for Seattle. The St. Louis Rams have a new coaching staff, so numbers from last season might not mean as much.

Seattle will use two-plus tight ends more frequently as long as Miller and Winslow are healthy. Winslow amassed 74 percent of his receiving yardage (565 of 763) as the only tight end on the field last season, according to ESPN Stats & Information. That figure mirrored the percentage of snaps when Tampa Bay used fewer than two tight ends, disregarding kneeldowns and spikes.

Miller's receiving numbers were going to climb anyway after he bottomed out at 25 receptions. Winslow has consistently been a 70-catch player. I would expect that figure to fall as he plays alongside another tight end to a degree he did not last season.

There is a chance Winslow will catch more passes than Miller.

Miller will likely be the in-line tight end, meaning he'll be more involved in run blocking. Winslow will be more of an H-back. That is consistent with assistant head coach/offensive line Tom Cable's vision for the offense.

Jacob from Missouri says it's easy to become optimistic while hearing good things from organized team activities and such.

"As a Rams fan, I could really use some optimism, but when is the best time to actually believe all the good things I'm hearing?" he writes.

Mike Sando: It's OK to believe the good things you're hearing now. Just remember to keep it all in perspective. For the Rams, pay close attention to the injury situation. This team was hit hard by injuries last season. It's important for the Rams to get through the offseason without starting to head down the path that led to the training room last season.

We should pay close attention to what the Rams are saying about Jason Smith at right tackle. We should listen for clues about Brian Quick's readiness to contribute right now, not just at some point in the distant future. We should pay attention to the source of information. When Jeff Fisher, a former defensive back, gushes over Janoris Jenkins and indicates he expects immediate contributions, that means something. I'd go ahead and buy into that a little bit.

Jeff from Fowler, Calif., asks whether NaVorro Bowman is the most logical young player to receive a contract extension from the 49ers.

Mike Sando: Yeah, I would think so. Dashon Goldson is operating on the franchise tag, so he could get a new deal as well. But he's been around a little longer. Bowman is younger and quickly became an All-Pro player. The 49ers should not feel pressure to do a deal with him right now, however. Bowman has the 2012 and 2013 seasons remaining on his contract. Waiting another year isn't disrespectful to Bowman. Why not get one more cheap season from Bowman and then reward him accordingly if Bowman backs up his strong 2011 season with another big year?

kualla83 from Phoenix asked whether the Arizona Cardinals' defense should be regarded on par with those from Seattle and San Francisco, even though those defenses were more consistent from start to finish.

"Obviously they have to prove it a little more on the field," he wrote, "but if the second half of last season is any indication of what is to come, I am really excited."

Mike Sando: First off, this question was one I answered in the chat. We had very few Cardinals questions and I answered them. FearTheTweetTweet even complained during the chat, asking whether I'd ever answer another Arizona question. I was looking for them and found only three (out of 140 questions, which was a low number for a chat anyway). So, we get a rerun of an answer.

It's fair to say the Cardinals should be optimistic based on the improvement they saw late in the season. It's fair to say the Cardinals have to prove it over the course of the season, which you indicated to be the case. The 49ers are in a different class defensively right now. Justin Smith and Patrick Willis were the two best defensive players in the division last season. The Cardinals do not have players quite on that level defensively. Now, they do have some very good players. The key variable, in my mind, is what production the team gets from its young outside linebackers. Again, there is reason for optimism there, but also much for the team to prove.

You might have noticed the "dream/nightmare scenarios" posted for AFC teams Thursday.

We'll have them for the NFC on Friday. I haven't started them and will not do so before late Thursday, after I've had a chance to consider your thoughts in the comments section below.

The video above might get your mind working (or stop it from working, depending on your take). In it, 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh gets credit for being an outstanding playcaller. He obviously plays an important role in that area, but for the record, and with an eye toward what awaits in the comments section, the 49ers have said coordinator Greg Roman is the primary playcaller.

Those looking for baseline expectations can check out some of the recently released over-under listings for NFC West victory totals. The San Francisco 49ers come in at 10, with the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals at seven. The St. Louis Rams are at six. However, a closer look at the listings shows oddsmakers setting different prices for betting over or under those posted totals. The price is higher for betting the "under" totals for NFC West teams.

NFC West teams owned six first-round choices in the 2010 NFL draft.

Sam Bradford, Russell Okung, Anthony Davis, Earl Thomas, Mike Iupati and Dan Williams were the selections.

One of them has emerged as a Pro Bowl performer (Thomas). Another has shown signs of reaching that level (Iupati).

One has been up and down to this point, subsequently drawing high marks from his coach for his footwork and overall improvement this offseason (Davis). Another is coming off a rough second season and learning his third offensive system in as many years (Bradford).

That leaves Okung and Williams in another category: highly valued players coming off season-ending surgeries.

Paul Coro of the Arizona Republic says Williams has reported to the Cardinals' organized team activities in much better shape than when the nose tackle reported to camp following the lockout last offseason. Coach Ken Whisenhunt: "He had conditioning at the end of practice (Tuesday), and he made it, which is a great sign for where we are. The big thing with Dan is there have been a lot of players who have told him how much they are counting on him this year. And I think that has an impact on Dan. He's working hard, have to give him a lot of credit, especially coming back from the arm. But I'm excited to see how he continues to progress."

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com checks in with Greg Toler as the cornerback works his way back from knee surgery. Toler is wearing a brace in practice.

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com says 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh stands by his comments about Michael Crabtree owning the best hands of any receiver the coach has ever seen. Also, Alex Boone is the starting right guard at this point, with Daniel Kilgore as the backup center. Harbaugh: "The comment stands on its own merit. I know you guys have dissected it about every which way it can be dissected. But it is literal. It is a literal fact, what I believe as I see it and believe it to be."

Also from Maiocco: Andy Lee's new deal is for $20.5 million over six years, with $7.1 million in the first two years.

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee offers this from Alex Smith regarding the quarterback's rapport with Crabtree: "We're a little further along. I feel good about body language and things like that. The thing I'm excited for him is not only is it his first offseason, he's healthy. I think he's excited about that. He's feeling really good. It shows up here. He's running better than he ever has since I've seen him."

Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News says much is on the line for Smith this season.

Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle says Smith sees no problem with the 49ers' No. 29 ranking in passing yards per game given how the team played overall. Smith: "I could absolutely care less on yards per game. I think that is a totally overblown stat because if you’re losing games in the second half, guess what, you’re like the Carolina Panthers and you're going no-huddle the entire second half. Yeah, Cam Newton threw for a lot of 300-yard games. That’s great. You’re not winning, though." Noted: Does anyone care much about passing yards per game?

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com says Kellen Winslow has no hard feelings about being traded to Seattle, according to Winslow's famous father. The elder Winslow, as quoted by the Chicago Tribune: "This came out of the blue that the trade was going to be going down. I was hoping he would be traded someplace that had the possibility of making the playoffs. He was happy. He knew Coach (Pete) Carroll from his days of being recruited to USC. So there is knowledge there. So many people take a trade as something negative. And it’s not. He may not fit in one team’s plan, but you fit in another team’s plan. So it is a good thing. In today’s game, a player moving around is nothing new. It is rare to see a guy stay with one team, unless you’re a quarterback or a left tackle."

Also from Farnsworth: Local product Donny Lisowski has impressed the Seahawks as an undrafted free agent. Carroll: "I like Donny Lisowski. He was all over the place out here. I had no (idea about him), other than he ran extremely fast when he showed up for a workout day. Then he went out here and made a bunch of plays. So I was really fired up about him. I think he’ll surprise you. I’m anxious to see what he can do on special teams, and all kinds of stuff. He’s a playmaker and was all over the field."

Brock Huard of 710ESPN Seattle explains why he thinks the quarterback job is Matt Flynn's to lose in Seattle.

Brent Schrotenboer of the San Diego Union-Tribune says Winslow's former landlord is trying to recoup $133,000 in alleged damages. Winslow's attorney denies any wrongdoing.

Danny Kelly of Field Gulls offers Winslow-related thoughts from Seahawks general manager John Schneider, as told to PFT Live. Schneider: "First and foremost, we've been looking for that position. We've been looking for a guy that can get down the field. Obviously, Kellen's been very productive the past couple of years down in Tampa Bay, I think second only to Jimmy Giles in team history. Secondly, I have a great relationship with Mark Dominik. We've known each other probably fifteen, twenty years now. When you have a strong relationship with someone like that, you're able to share situations, share experiences, and be able to work rather quickly with each other, and we have a specific trust level in place, and we were able to work it out."

Kathleen Nelson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch checks in with Rams quarterback Sam Bradford and select teammates. Rookie receiver Chris Givens, on Bradford: "He makes everything a lot easier for us. He's everything I heard about and more. He makes every throw, and he's always on point. He's just a great leader. He does a good job of picking us up after practice, working on the things where we had mistakes. Even during practice, he's there in our ear telling us 'Good job,' whether it was a bad play or a good play."

Also from Nelson: a look at the Rams' tight ends.

Good morning, NFC West.

After moving around the chat time in recent weeks, we're back on the usual Thursday schedule.

Hope to see you there at 1 p.m. ET.

JohnnyP from St. Louis, Mo., wants to see NFC West awards patterned after the major NFL awards: MVP, offensive and defensive players of the year, top rookies, etc.

Mike Sando: We've done all-division teams since 2008 and I'll reproduce the choices here.

What we should do, I think, is make projections for the coming season.

It's a little early to have a great feel for the rookies, but I think we'll likely see one of the receivers make an impact.

Brian Quick of the St. Louis Rams is my early choice on the suspicion Sam Bradford enjoys a bounce-back season. The team doesn't necessarily have an established No. 1 option even though Danny Amendola is returning from injury. Perhaps that gives Quick an immediate opportunity. That could change as we learn more, of course.

Michael Floyd of the Arizona Cardinals is an obvious contender. How many passes will come his way given Larry Fitzgerald's presence and established third-down options elsewhere? I'm less certain where the San Francisco 49ers' A.J. Jenkins will fit into an offense with Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree and, potentially, Randy Moss.

Defensively, Bruce Irvin will have sack opportunities for the Seattle Seahawks. Janoris Jenkins could have opportunities to pick off passes and factor in the Rams' return game. Those are two players to watch right away. The Rams' run defense figures to improve with Michael Brockers on the line, but he won't have as many chances for stats.

Let's revisit this one in a separate item.

First, I'll dust off the all-division teams since 2008, beginning with the offensive choices.


Defensive choices are next. Note that I went with four defensive ends in 2011, my attempt to include the best defensive linemen.


The specialists featured 49ers punter Andy Lee, who cashed in with a six-year contract Wednesday.

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Moving along to other subjects ...

Richard from Tucson, Ariz., thinks the NFL's push for players to wear knee and thigh pads beginning in 2013 stems in part from injuries such as the one Kevin Kolb suffered last season.

Mike Sando: The San Francisco 49ers' Ahmad Brooks did not appear to be wearing kneepads when his knee accidentally struck Kolb's helmet during a scramble for the football. I went back and watched the play a few more times to be sure. Would kneepads have spared Kolb from the concussion he suffered? That's not something anyone can determine with any certainty.

The injury San Francisco's Delanie Walker suffered at Seattle two weeks later also comes to mind. Seahawks linebacker Leroy Hill was wearing thigh pads. He did not appear to be wearing knee pads when his knee accidentally struck Walker in the side of the helmet, breaking Walker's jaw. Again, it's tough to say if padding would have made any difference for Walker.

Requiring knee and helmet pads seems like a logical move even in the absence of evidence proving additional pads would reduce concussions. The league is working with Nike to develop padding players consider more comfortable. I'd like to know whether these sleeker pads will provide as much protection for those on the receiving end of blows like the ones Kolb and Walker absorbed.

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Miles from Seattle questions asks whether the salaries for Zach Miller and Kellen Winslow would force them into competition for a single roster spot at tight end.

Mike Sando: Miller is scheduled to earn $6 million in base salary. His contract is scheduled to count $7 million against the salary cap this year. Winslow has a $3.3 million salary. His contract could count up to $4.8 million. Indeed, that's a hefty chunk of money tied up in two tight ends, but Seattle has the salary cap room to absorb the charges comfortably.

The five-year deal Miller signed before the 2011 looks more like a three-year contract for practical purposes. Miller's base salary rises to $6.8 million in 2013, with another $3 million due in a roster bonus. His cap number spikes to $11 million. Those numbers appear steep even for a top tight end.

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A.J. from Mendham, N.J., thinks the recent item criticizing Stephen Ross was overkill.

"I don't think the Dolphins were sold on Matt Flynn," he writes. "Jim Harbaugh wanted to stay in Northern California much more than he was uncomfortable with Miami's owner. Jeff Fisher would have taken the Miami job had he been granted total personnel control."

Mike Sando: That's a fair criticism. I'm finished with Ross and suspect he'll be OK, but the way he runs the franchise has benefited teams in the NFC West, in my view. Wait, I thought I was finished with Ross. OK, now I'm finished.

The San Francisco 49ers' NFC West rivals might as well start working on their divisional concession speeches.

That is because the 49ers, after one good season, suddenly tower over the Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals and St. Louis Rams by just about every meaningful on-field franchise marker.

That was my somewhat skeptical takeaway from the "NFL Future Power Rankings" projecting where teams are headed by 2015, using a weighted formula reflecting rosters, quarterbacks, drafts, front offices and coaching.

The 49ers, easily underrated while charging to a 13-3 record last season, appear overrated in relation to their division rivals by this ranking, in my view. Can we really say their front office blows away those for the other NFC West teams by an 8.5-to-5 margin across the board? A five-game cushion in the 2011 division standings says we can, but that will be a tough edge to maintain. Then again, last season did happen. It has to count for something, and the front office usually had the right answers.

"This category weighs each team's front office in terms of its ability to manage its roster and bring in new talent via free agency or trades," the methodology reads. "It also factors in a team's willingness to spend money, and a market's attraction to free agents. A 10 represents a team that has the ability to spend freely and obtain top-choice talent on a regular basis. A one represents a team that has little ability to spend, has no track record of bringing in quality free-agent talent or, worse, has spent big on free agents that have made little-to-no impact."

The 49ers hit big on Aldon Smith in the 2011 draft while finding outstanding free-agent value in Pro Bowl cornerback Carlos Rogers. They succeeded in keeping together their defense. CEO Jed York appears to have made the right move for a general manager even though fans were hardly chanting for Trent Baalke to assume the role. York and Baalke landed Jim Harbaugh as head coach.

On the flip side, the 49ers' front office has done less heavy lifting than the front offices for Seattle and St. Louis in particular. San Francisco stayed the course to a greater degree than those other teams, relying upon a new coaching staff to get more from Alex Smith and others. But the Rams remain in the early stages of a rebuild, while the Seahawks will need better on-field results to validate the high-impact moves they've made since Pete Carroll arrived in 2010. Seattle's unsettled fate at quarterback stands as another key variable.

Overall, the 49ers finished ahead of their division rivals in all five core categories except for one. They were second to St. Louis in projected quarterback strength. Having Sam Bradford gave the Rams 6.25 points out of 10 in that category, ahead of scores for Seattle (4.5) and Arizona (3.75).

I'll be curious to hear your thoughts on how these teams are set up for the future. I suspect a 2008 projection would have expected more from the Cardinals in 2011.

As the piece freely admits, these projections cannot anticipate everything.

"But they do provide some interesting conclusions about what's truly important to succeeding on a perennial basis in the NFL, specifically the value of a franchise QB," the piece notes. "And while some teams may experience a down year, the squads at the top of this list are well suited for sustained success over the long term."

Note: Gary Horton, Matt Williamson, Trent Dilfer and Mel Kiper Jr. worked with Bill Polian in putting together these projections.

Kellen Winslow put together another solid stat line for Tampa Bay last season with 75 receptions, the fourth time in six seasons he had hit that mark.


Winslow, acquired by the Seattle Seahawks on Monday, would shatter single-season team records for tight ends if he approached those numbers in 2012.

For some reason, however, Winslow's production last season wasn't as efficient. His quarterback, Josh Freeman, threw five times as many interceptions as touchdowns when targeting Winslow. Freeman threw more touchdowns than interceptions when targeting other players.

The charts come from John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information.



Winslow and Freeman had a strong rapport previously. It's tough to say what went into the disparate touchdown-to-interception ratio last season. The Bucs suffered through a tough season overall.

The fact that Winslow's knee prevents him from practicing extensively could make it tougher for him to develop a rapport with his new quarterbacks in Seattle. But I've heard some players, including New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning, say it's tough to develop a real rapport outside game situations. Winslow hasn't missed games in recent seasons.

"What happens in a game when things that you prepared for, all of a sudden you get a different technique or something that maybe that hasn't happened before occurs?" Manning said during Super Bowl week. "Can you tell by their body language, by the stem of their route, exactly what they are going to do? You have to scramble or move in the pocket and the timing is a little off, how are they going to react to those situations?"

The San Francisco 49ers' Alex Smith has company among NFC West quarterbacks seeking to improve their mechanics this season.

Kevin Kolb and John Skelton of the Arizona Cardinals have a new position coach and, unlike last offseason, ample time to work on the finer points. This is one area where Kolb should take a step forward. Learning a new offense and getting acclimated to new teammates were the priority during a lockout-shortened 2011 offseason.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic has the details, including a note from quarterbacks coach John McNulty regarding bad habits each player developed. Somers: "Last year Skelton had a tendency to not move his feet when he had to go to a second option. Sometimes the pass got there, sometimes it didn't, McNulty said. In the same situations, Kolb would just start moving, rather than adjust his feet to throw to a secondary target."

Also from Somers: The Cardinals would miss tight end Jeff King, who is recovering from a quadriceps injury. Somers: "King's contract remains unaffected because it is a football related injury. He is due to make $1.95 million in salary this season. Losing King for any amount of time would be a blow. He started 10 games last season and had 27 receptions, fourth on the team and the most of any tight end. With King out, the tight ends in these practices are Todd Heap, Rob Housler, Jim Dray, Steve Skelton and Martell Webb."

More from Somers: The start of training camp July 24 is the target date for Beanie Wells' return from knee surgery.

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com says Frank Gore has good reason for attending the 49ers' offseason conditioning program. Maiocco: "Gore said he took six weeks after the season to let his body rest. As part of the contract extension he signed last summer, Gore receives a $400,000 annual bonus for taking part in the 49ers' offseason program. He reported to the Bay Area to join his teammates three weeks ago."

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee provides a transcript from Kyle Williams' interview session. Williams on the impact Randy Moss has had on him: "Oh, a huge impact. He's a vet and he's a savvy vet and he's a first-ballot Hall of Famer once he gets done playing. So if you can't learn something from a guy like that, then you're not paying attention. So just the way he goes about his business, the way he works and the way he takes care of himself every day -- it's something that you can't help but learn from."

710ESPN Seattle offers commentary from Bucs beat reporter Roy Cummings regarding Kellen Winslow, acquired Monday by Seattle. Cummings: "He's got -- for whatever reason and I'm not sure why -- he's got this image out in the public of being a trouble-maker or not being a conformist or anything like that."

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com offers notes from the team's practice Tuesday, including this one: "Another new wrinkle in the defense could be veteran Marcus Trufant sliding inside as the nickelback. A first-round draft choice in 2003, he has started 123 games and was voted to the Pro Bowl in 2007. But when a back problem forced Trufant to sit out the final 12 games last season, Sherman stepped in and played well enough to remain the starter on the left side."

Stu Durando of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Rams' new offensive playbook features a larger role for the fullback. Brit Miller: "It's great. Last year there wasn't really anything in there for us that stood out where we could get downhill and block people and do the things we like, things we're good at. This playbook is full of it. I've had familiarity with this system in the past, so coming in I can jump right into everything." Noted: There's a tendency to think players get better from one generation to the next. I question whether that's true at fullback. The college game no longer produces many players at the position. Miller played linebacker in college. The 49ers' Bruce Miller converted from defensive end. Seattle's Michael Robinson played quarterback and tailback in college, among other positions.

Brock Huard, Mike Salk and I discussed Kellen Winslow during our most recent conversation on 710ESPN Seattle.

One of the questions -- what risk might Winslow carry for the Seahawks? -- reminded me to start with the money when analyzing how a veteran player fits into a new environment.

With that in mind, I've sketched out a few thoughts on deals for Winslow and a few other notable NFC West newcomers this offseason (one per team):

• Cortland Finnegan, St. Louis Rams: Finnegan signed a five-year deal that could be worth $50 million, with guaranteed salaries in each of the first two seasons. This deal identifies Finnegan as a starter, team leader and a core player for new coach Jeff Fisher. The risk should be low because Fisher knows Finnegan well. But the investment is high. The Rams are counting on Finnegan to produce and set a high standard.
• Randy Moss, San Francisco 49ers: Moss signed a one-year, $2.5 million deal. There was no bonus. Moss must be on the roster during the regular season to collect. Concerns over Moss becoming a negative influence, if valid, would be premature at this point. The organization hasn't invested enough in Moss to make this an issue now. The 49ers can release Moss before the season at no cost.
• Winslow, Seahawks: The Seahawks inherit the long-term deal Winslow signed in 2009, but without being on the hook for guaranteed money. At most, Winslow will cost Seattle a sixth-round choice and $4.8 million in 2012. But if the Seahawks released Winslow before the season, they would avoid paying any money. That puts Winslow in the low-risk category, at least until the season.
• Adam Snyder, Arizona Cardinals: Arizona didn't really make any high-profile additions this offseason. Deals for veteran guards generally don't make waves. But ignoring the Cardinals wasn't an option, either. So, here goes. The $5 million bonus Arizona paid to Snyder identifies him as a starter for the 2012 season. It identifies him as a projected starter for the future. But with 2013-and-beyond salaries at less than $3 million annually, Snyder's deal is not a cap killer.

Note: My usual Tuesday conversations with 101ESPN St. Louis' Bernie Miklasz will continue as we get closer to football season. In the meantime, follow Bernie's work through stltoday.com and on Twitter.

Kellen Winslow isn't the only veteran tight end making news in the NFC West.

Jeff King, at times a go-to option for Arizona last season, suffered an apparent leg injury during the Cardinals' organized team activities Tuesday.

King was on crutches and declined to discuss what happened, Kent Somers reported. Update: King is recovering from a torn quadriceps and should be ready for training camp, according to coach Ken Whisenhunt.

As much as the Cardinals valued King last season, they're looking to get more from 2011 third-round choice Rob Housler this season. Housler caught 12 passes for 133 yards, including a season-long 21-yarder against Seattle in Week 17. He's expected to push for additional playing time after getting 17 percent of the offensive snaps as a rookie.

King was fourth on the team in receptions with 27 and third in touchdown catches with three. That production came as a bit of a surprise after another free-agent addition, Todd Heap, commanded more attention upon joining the Cardinals. Heap finished with 24 receptions, one for a touchdown, but injuries limited him to 10 games (four starts).

Bottom line: Losing King to injury would be bad, but if all goes to plan, the Cardinals probably wouldn't rely on him as much this season.

Two of the most highly drafted tight ends in NFL history now call the NFC West home.

Vernon Davis, meet Kellen Winslow.

Both were chosen sixth overall, Winslow in 2004 and Davis two years later. They are the only tight ends chosen among the top 10 selections over the past 16 drafts.

One big difference: Davis is established as an elite contributor for the San Francisco 49ers, while Winslow comes to the Seattle Seahawks on a year-to-year basis.

Winslow's contract carries a $3.3 million base salary for 2012. It also includes a $550,000 roster bonus and $500,000 workouts bonus this year. The deal runs through 2014, but Winslow will have to produce this season to secure his future in Seattle.

Tampa Bay saved $4.8 million in cap room by trading Winslow. The Seahawks had more than enough cap space to absorb Winslow's salary and any associated bonuses, if applicable.

Kellen Winslow set season highs in 2010 with seven receptions for 98 yards and two touchdowns during a 38-15 victory over the Seattle Seahawks.

Winslow caught 10 passes for 83 yards against the other NFC West teams that season.

What, exactly, are the Seahawks getting in Winslow, acquired Monday night from Tampa Bay for a conditional draft choice in 2013?

Brock Huard of 710ESPN Seattle expects Winslow to become the H-back in Tom Cable's offense, allowing Zach Miller to focus on his duties as an in-line tight end. Huard: "Tom Cable has talked about the eight- and even nine-man box counts opposing defenses threw at the Hawks a year ago. Putting two tight ends like Miller and Winslow on the field will force the defense's hand. Play base defense and Winslow is a mismatch; play nickel defense and expect Beast Mode to run off of Miller and set up the play-action pass." Noted: Winslow's bad knee is also worth our consideration here. The knee has kept Winslow off the practice field. Seattle will have to manage the injury throughout training camp and the regular season. Winslow has managed to produce anyway. He has missed no games over the past three seasons.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic outlines five areas to watch for the Cardinals over the next month. Somers on the quarterbacks: "There is competition between Kevin Kolb and John Skelton for the starting job. Rich Bartel and rookie Ryan Lindley could be competing for a roster spot. Position meetings can sometimes be like an old one-room schoolhouse. One student, say a 10-year veteran, is ready for calculus. Another, say a rookie, is learning multiplication tables. That's not the case with this group. The Cardinals four quarterbacks aren't exactly at the same level, but it's close. There is no 10-year veteran in the room who has been there, done that."

Stu Durando of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch explains why the Rams had little trouble landing undrafted free-agent safety Matt Daniels. For one, the Rams had only three safeties on their roster at the time. Daniels: "That was the reason I came here. It's the biggest opportunity to actually make a roster and make an impact. It wasn't about money or getting a big signing bonus or going to the team that's predicted to win the Super Bowl. The reason you come here is the opportunity to play and help a team win and go to a Super Bowl."

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee takes a closer look at the 49ers' receiving targets from last season. Barrows: "Everyone's percentage, aside from Vernon Davis', went down as the season progressed, perhaps because of the weather or the caliber of opponent or both. Davis also was the only pass catcher who had any success in the playoffs. He caught 10 of the 15 passes that went his way (for 292 yards and four touchdowns). The rest of the group combined to catch 10 of the 33 passes that went their way against the Saints and Giants. Michael Crabtree caught five of 16 passes thrown in his direction; Williams caught two of the 10 passes on which he was targeted."

Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News offers a look at the 49ers' locker-room layout.