Matt Hasselbeck again looked like the best quarterback in the NFC West while completing 11 of 15 passes for 127 yards and a touchdown in the Seattle Seahawks' second exhibition game.
Of course, this preseason stuff can be tough to figure.
Former St. Louis Rams starter Marc Bulger completed 13 of 16 passes for 130 yards with Baltimore the same day Hasselbeck was shining for Seattle. The Jacksonville Jaguars' Luke McCown leads the NFL in preseason passer rating among quarterbacks with enough attempts to qualify.
K.C. Joyner, a.k.a. the Football Scientist, relied on his own research, not preseason performance, in putting together his latest annual fantasy football guide. I'm going to break out his thoughts on the most prominent quarterback for each NFC West team, adding my own thoughts along the way, followed by last-minute updates from K.C. (provided via e-mail on Friday).
The Arizona Cardinals section focuses first on Matt Leinart because Leinart was the undisputed starter when K.C. put together his fantasy guide. The analysis takes into account Derek Anderson's prospects.
San Francisco 49ers: Alex Smith
Fantasy pros from K.C.: The math on this is quite simple. Smith’s 11.5 vertical YPA last year ranked 11th in the league. His 5.4 short pass YPA ranked 31st. It would only take a two-tenths of a yard increase in vertical YPA to get him in the top 10 in that category. A 1.2-yard increase in short passing YPA would get him to the top 10 there (and much of that can be achieved by getting Michael Crabtree to step up his short pass game level). If those two both happen, Smith is a top 10 YPA guy. Combine that with his league leading 77 matchup points and it very well could equal a No. 1 fantasy QB.
Fantasy cons from K.C.: Smith doesn’t strike me as being the kind of guy Mike Singletary wants as his QB. Singletary wants passionate, fiery ballplayers and he has a history of trying to get people who aren’t cut from this cloth to act like this. Smith isn’t like that, and if Singletary tries to change him, it might cause issues. It also isn’t a given that Smith will increase either his vertical YPA or that Crabtree will fix his short pass issues.
K.C.'s bottom line: The good news is that Smith’s backup is David Carr. Carr isn’t any more of a fiery type than is Smith (he was walked on by his Houston teammates and was rejected by the Carolina offense because he wasn’t as vocal as Delhomme), so a benching is unlikely. As long as Smith is in the lineup for 16 games facing this incredibly favorable schedule, he’ll post quality fantasy totals. A very good No. 2 QB you might be able to pick up late in a draft (and you could even pick him as a No. 3 in some draft rooms).
The line right below the bottom line, from Sando: All this talk about vertical YPA and short pass YPA can get a little confusing. I've spoken to K.C. at length a few times over the years. There is no such thing as a foolproof system for evaluating players, let alone one for projecting how they might perform. But the system Joyner has adopted can help evaluate players relative to one another. I'm most interested in what K.C. perceives to be favorable matchups for Smith. He breaks down each defensive back, including nickel defenders, and assigns them color-coded ratings based on performance the previous season. The more favorable the matchups, the more points a quarterback gains. Smith was at one extreme with 77 points. Joe Flacco was at the other extreme at 62 points.
Following up with K.C., who sent this update via e-mail Friday: Want another reason to be on the Smith bandwagon? Try this. Check out last year's pass receiving totals for San Francisco running backs not named Frank Gore: 40 attempts, 131 yards gained, 3.3 YPA. Now check out Brian Westbrook's pass receiving numbers from 2009: 34 attempts, 181 yards, 5.3 YPA. His addition should mean a gain of around two yards per attempt on these types of dink-and -dunk throws. Since short passes were the only area Smith struggled in last season, this bodes well for his being able to improve upon that performance.
Seattle Seahawks: Matt Hasselbeck
Fantasy pros from K.C.: This is a tough one. Working for a new high energy coach is a plus. Hasselbeck notched 500 attempts in only fourteen games. The Hawks have added a lot of offensive talent this offseason.
Fantasy cons from K.C.: He’s old, has a recent history of being injury riddled, and might lose the starting job.
K.C.'s bottom line: Until it becomes clear that Hasselbeck will win the starting role, don’t draft him. Even then, consider him a low-end No. 3.
The line right below the bottom line, from Sando: K.C. made his points before Hasselbeck emerged as the clear choice to start this season. The injury issue stands out as most concerning. The Seahawks could be banking on a recently injured rookie (Russell Okung), a rusty veteran (Chester Pitts) or an unproven backup (Mansfield Wrotto) to start at left tackle in the regular-season opener against a 49ers team that has been practicing in pads 14 times a day since January (a slight exaggeration, but you get the point). I'll need to see Hasselbeck stay healthy to trust what he might be able to provide from a fantasy standpoint. On the other hand, he had 14 touchdowns with eight interceptions in the first 11 games he played last season. The injury Hasselbeck suffered against the 49ers in Week 2 had nothing to do with protection or the back trouble he experienced previously. It was just a tough break. Better luck could be all Hasselbeck needs to put up decent numbers.
Following up with K.C., who sent this update via e-mail Friday: The question mark coming into this year was whether or not Hasselbeck would be the starter. Since he has pretty much won that role, his value moves up from a questionable No. 3 to a solid No. 3. The injury concerns and the state of flux that is the Seattle receiving corps are the only things that keep him from being rated higher. He could be a good risk/reward candidate late in a draft.
Arizona Cardinals: Matt Leinart
Fantasy pros from K.C.: Throwing 125-150 passes to Larry Fitzgerald is a great place to start. There is also the misconception regarding the type of offense Whisenhunt will operate. The general idea is that he is a run-first coach, but he is really more of a Joe Gibbs pass to get a lead and run to win type. A good percentage of those aerials tend to be vertical, so the idea of Leinart throwing 400-450 total passes with 150-175 vertical throws over the course of a full season is certainly more than plausible. A very favorable schedule also adds potential upside value.
Fantasy cons from K.C.: A full season isn’t a gimme given that Whisenhunt might not put up with Leinart if he struggles. Derek Anderson isn’t a great quarterback by any stretch, but the Cardinals head coach has a history of benching players that don’t perform well.
K.C.'s bottom line: He’s on the precipice of being a No. 2 or No. 3 fantasy QB. If you want to take the chance, play it safe and make sure he’s your No. 3.
The line right below the bottom line, from Sando: The criticism and skepticism Leinart is facing this preseason could become self-fulfilling if Leinart isn't strong enough to handle the scrutiny. If Leinart shows the tentativeness of a player fretting over his job security, he'll have a hard time making plays down the field (or anywhere). He hasn't played enough this preseason to get comfortable and play freely. Now he has to watch Derek Anderson work with the starters. K.C. raises a welcome point about the nature of Whisenhunt's offense. The Cardinals will not suddenly become a grind-it-out team exclusively just because Kurt Warner retired. They might rely more heavily on the run than they did in the past, but not disproportionately so. Personnel changes will lead to fewer four-receiver personnel groupings. That might have happened anyway following Anquan Boldin's departure.
Following up with K.C., who sent this update via e-mail Friday: Even if Anderson wins this job, his 2009 numbers suggest strongly against drafting him. There were 36 quarterbacks last year who attempted at least 175 passes (if penalty plays such as defensive pass interference are included). Anderson ranked dead last among that group in overall YPA, short pass YPA and bad-decision percentage (a bad decision being defined as when a QB makes a mistake with the ball that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover such as a dropped interception). Anderson also ranked tied for 33rd in medium YPA, 35th in deep YPA, and 31st in vertical YPA. Add those numbers to the fact that Whisenhunt could feasibly change back to Leinart as his quarterback sometime this year and it means the recommendation is to avoid both of these guys in a draft.
St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford
Fantasy pros from K.C.: I did a tape/metric study on Bradford for ESPN The Magazine and found that his metrics were easily the best of any of the top QBs in the draft. He really has the potential to be a
great NFL QB.
Fantasy cons from K.C.: May not start the entire season and will have to deal with a bad O-line, below-average WRs and a tough schedule. And, of course, he’s a rookie.
K.C.'s bottom line: Bradford is a No. 3 but there are many higher percentage plays at that spot.
The line right below the bottom line, from Sando: There's no reason for anyone in a non-keeper league to take a chance on Bradford this season. Steven Jackson is the best player on the team, the Rams still have to prove they can stay healthy up front, and their receivers haven't proven much to this point. I wouldn't use the word "bad" in describing the Rams' line without pointing to injury-induced lineup turnover for the line's struggles last season.
Following up with K.C., who sent this update via e-mail Friday: Why is Tim Tebow getting so much more play than Bradford? Yes, Tebow was a great college player and he led the NCAA in passer rating in 2009, but a study I did for ESPN The Magazine this spring showed Bradford outplayed Tebow in a couple of very important categories. I looked at a 200-pass attempt sample for both (from the 2009 season for Tebow, from the 2008-2009 seasons for Bradford) and Bradford beat Tebow in overall YPA (8.8 to 8.5). He also did a much better job in the bad-decision category (1.5 percent for Bradford vs. 3.4 percent for Tebow). In addition, if Bradford does win the starting job (as it looks like he will), you can count on 500 passes from him. That isn't a number you might be able to count on from other QBs late in a draft, so consider Bradford a quality No. 3 QB.
Of course, this preseason stuff can be tough to figure.
Former St. Louis Rams starter Marc Bulger completed 13 of 16 passes for 130 yards with Baltimore the same day Hasselbeck was shining for Seattle. The Jacksonville Jaguars' Luke McCown leads the NFL in preseason passer rating among quarterbacks with enough attempts to qualify.
K.C. Joyner, a.k.a. the Football Scientist, relied on his own research, not preseason performance, in putting together his latest annual fantasy football guide. I'm going to break out his thoughts on the most prominent quarterback for each NFC West team, adding my own thoughts along the way, followed by last-minute updates from K.C. (provided via e-mail on Friday).
The Arizona Cardinals section focuses first on Matt Leinart because Leinart was the undisputed starter when K.C. put together his fantasy guide. The analysis takes into account Derek Anderson's prospects.
San Francisco 49ers: Alex Smith
Fantasy pros from K.C.: The math on this is quite simple. Smith’s 11.5 vertical YPA last year ranked 11th in the league. His 5.4 short pass YPA ranked 31st. It would only take a two-tenths of a yard increase in vertical YPA to get him in the top 10 in that category. A 1.2-yard increase in short passing YPA would get him to the top 10 there (and much of that can be achieved by getting Michael Crabtree to step up his short pass game level). If those two both happen, Smith is a top 10 YPA guy. Combine that with his league leading 77 matchup points and it very well could equal a No. 1 fantasy QB.
Fantasy cons from K.C.: Smith doesn’t strike me as being the kind of guy Mike Singletary wants as his QB. Singletary wants passionate, fiery ballplayers and he has a history of trying to get people who aren’t cut from this cloth to act like this. Smith isn’t like that, and if Singletary tries to change him, it might cause issues. It also isn’t a given that Smith will increase either his vertical YPA or that Crabtree will fix his short pass issues.
K.C.'s bottom line: The good news is that Smith’s backup is David Carr. Carr isn’t any more of a fiery type than is Smith (he was walked on by his Houston teammates and was rejected by the Carolina offense because he wasn’t as vocal as Delhomme), so a benching is unlikely. As long as Smith is in the lineup for 16 games facing this incredibly favorable schedule, he’ll post quality fantasy totals. A very good No. 2 QB you might be able to pick up late in a draft (and you could even pick him as a No. 3 in some draft rooms).
The line right below the bottom line, from Sando: All this talk about vertical YPA and short pass YPA can get a little confusing. I've spoken to K.C. at length a few times over the years. There is no such thing as a foolproof system for evaluating players, let alone one for projecting how they might perform. But the system Joyner has adopted can help evaluate players relative to one another. I'm most interested in what K.C. perceives to be favorable matchups for Smith. He breaks down each defensive back, including nickel defenders, and assigns them color-coded ratings based on performance the previous season. The more favorable the matchups, the more points a quarterback gains. Smith was at one extreme with 77 points. Joe Flacco was at the other extreme at 62 points.
Following up with K.C., who sent this update via e-mail Friday: Want another reason to be on the Smith bandwagon? Try this. Check out last year's pass receiving totals for San Francisco running backs not named Frank Gore: 40 attempts, 131 yards gained, 3.3 YPA. Now check out Brian Westbrook's pass receiving numbers from 2009: 34 attempts, 181 yards, 5.3 YPA. His addition should mean a gain of around two yards per attempt on these types of dink-and -dunk throws. Since short passes were the only area Smith struggled in last season, this bodes well for his being able to improve upon that performance.
Seattle Seahawks: Matt Hasselbeck
Fantasy pros from K.C.: This is a tough one. Working for a new high energy coach is a plus. Hasselbeck notched 500 attempts in only fourteen games. The Hawks have added a lot of offensive talent this offseason.
Fantasy cons from K.C.: He’s old, has a recent history of being injury riddled, and might lose the starting job.
K.C.'s bottom line: Until it becomes clear that Hasselbeck will win the starting role, don’t draft him. Even then, consider him a low-end No. 3.
The line right below the bottom line, from Sando: K.C. made his points before Hasselbeck emerged as the clear choice to start this season. The injury issue stands out as most concerning. The Seahawks could be banking on a recently injured rookie (Russell Okung), a rusty veteran (Chester Pitts) or an unproven backup (Mansfield Wrotto) to start at left tackle in the regular-season opener against a 49ers team that has been practicing in pads 14 times a day since January (a slight exaggeration, but you get the point). I'll need to see Hasselbeck stay healthy to trust what he might be able to provide from a fantasy standpoint. On the other hand, he had 14 touchdowns with eight interceptions in the first 11 games he played last season. The injury Hasselbeck suffered against the 49ers in Week 2 had nothing to do with protection or the back trouble he experienced previously. It was just a tough break. Better luck could be all Hasselbeck needs to put up decent numbers.
Following up with K.C., who sent this update via e-mail Friday: The question mark coming into this year was whether or not Hasselbeck would be the starter. Since he has pretty much won that role, his value moves up from a questionable No. 3 to a solid No. 3. The injury concerns and the state of flux that is the Seattle receiving corps are the only things that keep him from being rated higher. He could be a good risk/reward candidate late in a draft.
Arizona Cardinals: Matt Leinart
Fantasy pros from K.C.: Throwing 125-150 passes to Larry Fitzgerald is a great place to start. There is also the misconception regarding the type of offense Whisenhunt will operate. The general idea is that he is a run-first coach, but he is really more of a Joe Gibbs pass to get a lead and run to win type. A good percentage of those aerials tend to be vertical, so the idea of Leinart throwing 400-450 total passes with 150-175 vertical throws over the course of a full season is certainly more than plausible. A very favorable schedule also adds potential upside value.
Fantasy cons from K.C.: A full season isn’t a gimme given that Whisenhunt might not put up with Leinart if he struggles. Derek Anderson isn’t a great quarterback by any stretch, but the Cardinals head coach has a history of benching players that don’t perform well.
K.C.'s bottom line: He’s on the precipice of being a No. 2 or No. 3 fantasy QB. If you want to take the chance, play it safe and make sure he’s your No. 3.
The line right below the bottom line, from Sando: The criticism and skepticism Leinart is facing this preseason could become self-fulfilling if Leinart isn't strong enough to handle the scrutiny. If Leinart shows the tentativeness of a player fretting over his job security, he'll have a hard time making plays down the field (or anywhere). He hasn't played enough this preseason to get comfortable and play freely. Now he has to watch Derek Anderson work with the starters. K.C. raises a welcome point about the nature of Whisenhunt's offense. The Cardinals will not suddenly become a grind-it-out team exclusively just because Kurt Warner retired. They might rely more heavily on the run than they did in the past, but not disproportionately so. Personnel changes will lead to fewer four-receiver personnel groupings. That might have happened anyway following Anquan Boldin's departure.
Following up with K.C., who sent this update via e-mail Friday: Even if Anderson wins this job, his 2009 numbers suggest strongly against drafting him. There were 36 quarterbacks last year who attempted at least 175 passes (if penalty plays such as defensive pass interference are included). Anderson ranked dead last among that group in overall YPA, short pass YPA and bad-decision percentage (a bad decision being defined as when a QB makes a mistake with the ball that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover such as a dropped interception). Anderson also ranked tied for 33rd in medium YPA, 35th in deep YPA, and 31st in vertical YPA. Add those numbers to the fact that Whisenhunt could feasibly change back to Leinart as his quarterback sometime this year and it means the recommendation is to avoid both of these guys in a draft.
St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford
Fantasy pros from K.C.: I did a tape/metric study on Bradford for ESPN The Magazine and found that his metrics were easily the best of any of the top QBs in the draft. He really has the potential to be a
great NFL QB.
Fantasy cons from K.C.: May not start the entire season and will have to deal with a bad O-line, below-average WRs and a tough schedule. And, of course, he’s a rookie.
K.C.'s bottom line: Bradford is a No. 3 but there are many higher percentage plays at that spot.
The line right below the bottom line, from Sando: There's no reason for anyone in a non-keeper league to take a chance on Bradford this season. Steven Jackson is the best player on the team, the Rams still have to prove they can stay healthy up front, and their receivers haven't proven much to this point. I wouldn't use the word "bad" in describing the Rams' line without pointing to injury-induced lineup turnover for the line's struggles last season.
Following up with K.C., who sent this update via e-mail Friday: Why is Tim Tebow getting so much more play than Bradford? Yes, Tebow was a great college player and he led the NCAA in passer rating in 2009, but a study I did for ESPN The Magazine this spring showed Bradford outplayed Tebow in a couple of very important categories. I looked at a 200-pass attempt sample for both (from the 2009 season for Tebow, from the 2008-2009 seasons for Bradford) and Bradford beat Tebow in overall YPA (8.8 to 8.5). He also did a much better job in the bad-decision category (1.5 percent for Bradford vs. 3.4 percent for Tebow). In addition, if Bradford does win the starting job (as it looks like he will), you can count on 500 passes from him. That isn't a number you might be able to count on from other QBs late in a draft, so consider Bradford a quality No. 3 QB.
Mike Sando | email
NFL- NFC West Blogger
- Joined ESPN in 2007
- Lives in the Seattle-Tacoma area with his wife and two sons
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Mike Sando
Sando joined ESPN.com in 2007 after nine seasons covering the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma (Wash.) News Tribune. He lives in the Seattle-Tacoma area with his wife and two sons.
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