ESPN NFL

Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando

The Jacksonville Jaguars, perched on the precipice of a 5-11 season, ranked fifth in ESPN's composite power rankings from July 2008. The Atlanta Falcons ranked 32nd even though they were about to post an 11-5 record on their way to the playoffs.

These hard lessons kept creeping into my mind as I put together power rankings for our composite 2009 rankings, scheduled to run on the site next week.

Chris Mortensen's sixth Tweet of the young morning arrived just as I had finally settled on a defensible order. "My top 5 on the show was based on teams that made sense," Mort's dispatch began. "Patriots, Saints, Steelers, Browns & Cardinals."

Wait, he's talking about top five landing spots for Michael Vick? And I thought we'd found someone willing to rank the Cardinals in the top five. Too bad.

My top five -- and top 32, for that matter -- can wait until Monday. I'll focus on my NFC West decisions here and in conjunction with the conversation under way on the blog.

Quarterback situations matter most to me in setting offseason rankings. Teams without good quarterbacks have a hard time winning in the regular season and a harder time advancing in the playoffs. The top five teams in my rankings all have Pro Bowl-caliber quarterbacks.

Where I ranked each NFC West team, and why:

Cardinals (No. 7)

Overview: The Giants were the only higher-ranked team from the NFC in my initial rankings. Kurt Warner surprised me by making it through 20 regular-season and playoff starts last season. I question whether he can hold up that well for another full season, but I also expect the Cardinals to help him by becoming more balanced.

Ranking is too high if ... the Cardinals remain an immature team. They could not perform on demand last season. They did not compete hard during regular-season defeats to the Eagles, Vikings and Patriots. It's easy to forgive those performances following a Super Bowl run, but it's not wise to forget them. The Cardinals need to prove they can be consistent.

Ranking is too low if ... the Cardinals pick up where they left off last season. Arizona became a different team during the playoffs. The Cardinals are talented enough to beat anyone at University of Phoenix Stadium or a neutral site. That makes them dangerous.

49ers (No. 19)

Overview: Head coach Mike Singletary seems to be growing into the job following an adventurous start last season. The decision to hire Mike Holmgren's former football operations man in a similar role should unburden Singletary from the administrative demands of the job. I think it's one of the more underrated NFC West moves this offseason given Singletary's lack of experience in that critical area.

Ranking is too high if ... new offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye doesn't have a feel for play calling and the quarterback situation remains unsettled.

Ranking is too low if ... the 49ers were justified in yawning while the Raiders signed Jeff Garcia. Casual observers probably don't know how well Shaun Hill performed last season in upping his record to 7-3 as the 49ers' starter. Eleven quarterbacks had higher passer ratings last season. Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Jake Delhomme, David Garrard, Brett Favre, Joe Flacco, Kerry Collins and Ben Roethlisberger were not among them.

Seahawks (No. 20)

Overview: The Seahawks have a new head coach, two new coordinators, a new-look defensive line, a new likely No. 1 receiver and new starters at linebacker and cornerback. They're also getting old in a few key spots. Has the window slammed shut for the former four-time defending NFC West champs?

Ranking is too high if ... Matt Hasselbeck's back injury remains a problem. That is hardly cutting-edge analysis, but the truth isn't very complicated sometimes. The Seahawks feel better about their ability to protect Hasselbeck than others consider warranted. I've spoken with coaches from other teams who aren't convinced.

Ranking is too low if ... Hasselbeck is truly back. We'll know more this summer. The Seahawks are also anxious to see whether a younger staff can energize the team and add needed wrinkles to an underachieving defense. Getting more from young defensive ends Lawrence Jackson and Darryl Tapp could transform the defense, particularly if Patrick Kerney returns to health.

Rams (No. 29)

Overview: The feeling here is that the Rams have subtracted more than any team could reasonably add during an offseason. They needed to get younger and they certainly have, but they do not have proven replacements for Orlando Pace, Torry Holt, Pisa Tinoisamoa and others. Perhaps a few will emerge.

Ranking is too high if ... serious injuries strike at receiver, linebacker or along the offensive line. It's tough to see the Rams ranking lower than 29th because their youth
should lead to more consistent effort, even if things go wrong. But the Rams lack the depth to cope with injuries at a few positions, starting with the ones I mentioned.

Ranking is too low if ... the Rams develop a hard-nosed identity through the running game, providing cover for Marc Bulger. I think it can happen and this team will emerge from the 2009 season with something the Rams have recently lacked: hope.

Final note

My power rankings aren't due until Thursday, so you still have time to sway my thinking.