ESPN NFL

Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando

This 2009 debut edition of the weekly MVP Watch draws from two decades of history for guidance.

Quarterbacks and running backs have won the award every year since Giants great Lawrence Taylor prevailed for his efforts during the 1986 season.

In 2008, DeMarcus Ware's 20-sack performance bought him exactly zero votes in MVP balloting. Peyton Manning commanded 32 of 50 votes to win for a third time. Steelers linebacker James Harrison was the only defensive player -- the only player other than a quarterback or running back -- to register in voting. Three of 50 panelists chose him. Tom Brady's return from knee surgery could prevent Manning or anyone from winning so convincingly this time.

I've put together an initial top-10 list based mostly on expectations. The list will shrink and the names could change as the season progresses, but it's an upset if a defensive player makes a serious run.

MIKE SANDO'S MVP WATCH 1. PEYTON MANNING, Indianapolis Colts 2008 PASSING CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT 371 555 4,002 66.8 7.21 75 27 12 14 95.0 Manning has never missed a start, his team has won at least 12 games for six consecutive seasons and the Colts have ranked fourth or higher in points eight times over the past decade.

2. ADRIAN PETERSON, Minnesota Vikings 2008 RUSHING 2008 RECEIVING ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD 363 1,760 4.8 67 10 21 125 6.0 16 0 Not even Brett Favre's arrival will dissuade the Vikings from handing off to the best running back in the league. Peterson should cut down on fumbles this season.

3. TOM BRADY, New England Patriots 2007 PASSING CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT 398 578 4,806 68.9 8.32 69 50 8 21 117.2 Brady's mechanics appeared intact upon his return from knee surgery. He still has the weapons, too. All signs point to good things for No. 12 despite a preseason shoulder scare.

4. DREW BREES, New Orleans Saints 2008 PASSING CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT 413 635 5,069 65.0 7.98 84 34 17 13 96.2 The stats figure to be there for Brees and the Saints' passing game. Overall team success will again determine where Brees figures into the MVP discussion.

5. PHILIP RIVERS, San Diego Chargers 2008 PASSING CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT 312 478 4,009 65.3 8.39 67 34 11 25 105.5 Rivers pumped up his numbers significantly last season. LaDainian Tomlinson has the potential to turn TD passes into TD runs, however, possibly hurting Rivers' stat line.

6. KURT WARNER, Arizona Cardinals 2008 PASSING CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT 401 598 4,583 67.1 7.66 79 30 14 26 96.9 Ken Whisenhunt has taken over play-calling duties and the Cardinals would like to show more balance. The passing game remains Arizona's strength, however.

7. MICHAEL TURNER, Atlanta Falcons 2008 RUSHING 2008 RECEIVING ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD 376 1,699 4.5 70 17 6 41 6.8 18 0 Turner will have to share the ball -- and the credit -- with emerging star Matt Ryan, but the Falcons aren't likely to become pass-happy anytime soon.

8. AARON RODGERS, Green Bay Packers 2008 PASSING CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT 341 536 4,038 63.6 7.53 71 28 13 34 93.8 Coming off a 4,000-yard season, Rodgers must improve in key situations for the Packers to significantly improve upon their 6-10 record last season. I like his chances.

9. BEN ROETHLISBERGER, Pittsburgh Steelers 2008 PASSING CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT 281 469 3,301 59.9 7.04 65 17 15 46 80.1 The stats haven't always been there for Roethlisberger, but he wins consistently and that's half the battle for most MVP candidates.

10. DONOVAN McNABB, Philadelphia Eagles 2008 PASSING CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT 345 571 3,916 60.4 6.86 90 23 11 23 86.4 McNabb has reached 20 touchdown passes in a season only once in the last four and twice in the last seven. He'll need better numbers to seriously challenge for MVP.