2011 NFC West game changers: Week 11

Let's face it, there wasn't much drama in the NFC West during Week 11.

No play from within the division came close to approaching Tim Tebow's winning touchdown run for Denver against the New York Jets. That play pumped up the Broncos' win probability from 51.0 percent to 94 percent, the biggest jump for any play in Week 11, according to ESPN's analytics team.

Chris Clemons' fumble-forcing sack against Sam Bradford with 8:22 left in the third quarter stood out as the biggest game-changer in the NFC West. Using similar plays in similar situations as a baseline, Clemons' play and the resulting turnover increased the Seahawks' chances from 56.7 percent to nearly 75 percent.

The fourth and fifth plays listed in the chart were from the first and second plays from scrimmage in the Seahawks-Rams game. Seattle gained 55 yards on a trick play to start the game, only to throw an interception one play later.

The Rams made the breaks they needed early in the game, picking off Tarvaris Jackson's first two passes and capitalizing with a touchdown pass, but it still wasn't enough.


2011 NFC West Game Changers: Week 11