Upset probabilities in the NFC West

October, 17, 2009
10/17/09
9:22
PM ET
Win Chance Visitor Home Win Chance
.090 Browns Steelers .910
.140 Rams Jaguars .860
.210 Lions Packers .790
.230 Bills Jets .770
.250
Chiefs Redskins .750
.380 Texans Bengals .620
.380 Giants Saints
.620
.390 Bears Falcons .610
.400 Ravens Vikings .600
.420 Titans Patriots .580
.460 Cardinals Seahawks .540
.570 Panthers Bucs .430
.630 Broncos Chargers .370
.870 Eagles Raiders .130
Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando

Week 5 produced a few surprises relative to Brian Burke's model predicting NFL outcomes.

The model posted a 9-5 record, down from 12-1 in Week 4 (not counting a 50-50 game).

The chart shows how Burke's model sees win probabilities in Week 6. I encourage you to check out his analysis on the Fifth Down Blog. He doesn't take things too seriously, but the model is based on serious research.

For Week 6, Burke's model sees a Steelers' victory over the Browns as the most likely outcome of the week, followed by Eagles over Raiders and Jaguars over Rams. The Cardinals-Seahawks game appears much tougher to call, with Seattle enjoying a slight edge.

More predictions: Leave your own in the most recent You Called It item. The Sunday Countdown crew is split on Cardinals-Seahawks.

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