Upset probabilities in NFC West (slim)

October, 30, 2009
10/30/09
9:47
AM ET
Win Chance Visitor Home Win Chance
.070 49ers Colts .930
.080 Raiders Chargers .920
.100 Browns Bears .900
.120 Falcons Saints .880
.160
Panthers Cardinals .840
.170 Seahawks Cowboys .830
.260 Vikings Packers
.740
.400 Dolphins Jets .600
.410 Rams Lions .590
.540 Jaguars Titans .460
.580 Giants Eagles .420
.650 Texans Bills .350
.730 Broncos Ravens .270
Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando

Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats is back with his game prediction model, courtesy of The New York Times' Fifth Down Blog.

The chart shows how Burke's model sees win probabilities in Week 7. For that and more, check out his latest entry.

The model produced a 12-1 record in Week 7, missing only on the Cardinals' victory over the Giants.

Burke's model doesn't like the 49ers' or Seahawks' chances in Week 8 -- no surprise -- while giving the Rams a decent shot against the Lions. Perhaps surprisingly, the model somewhat strongly favors the Giants to beat the Eagles in Philadelphia.

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