What charts say about '13 first-round trades

April, 26, 2013
4/26/13
12:05
PM ET
NFL teams made five trades during the first round of the 2013 draft. NFC West teams made three of them.

The opportunity is ripe for viewing these deals through the alternative draft-value charts discussed in March, powered by the calculator on Steve Drake's site.

We'll provide verdicts for each trade using the traditional trade-value chart and the Harvard chart valuing picks in relation to the average career production for players selected at each spot from 1980 through 2005.

Drake's calculator returns the value of traded picks according to each chart in relation to how those charts value of No. 1 overall selection.

First trade

Miami Dolphins give up: 12th and 42nd overall choices

Oakland Raiders give up: third overall choice

Old trade chart verdict: Dolphins win. They received a pick worth 2,200 points for picks totaling 1,680 points. Drake: "The team trading up (Dolphins) received excess value equal to .17 number one picks, 31 percent more value than they traded away."

Harvard chart verdict: Raiders win. They received picks worth 461.3 points for a pick worth 402.7 points. Drake: "The team trading down (Raiders) received excess value equal to .12 number one picks, 15 percent more value than they traded away."

Sando comment: The Raiders needed extra picks and came out a lot better according to the Harvard chart. That is something to keep in mind if you were among those criticizing the Raiders for failing to fully leverage such a high choice. Also, the value of any picks early in the draft change based upon what type of player is available there. The third pick would have had much greater value if, say, a top quarterback had been available in that slot.

Second trade

St. Louis Rams give up: 16th, 46th, 78th and 222nd picks

Buffalo Bills give up: 8th and 71st picks

Old trade chart verdict: no clear winner. The Rams gave up picks with 1643.6 points for picks worth 1,635 points. Drake: "The team trading down (Bills) received excess value equal to zero number one picks, 1 percent more value than they traded away."

Harvard chart verdict: Bills win decisively. They received picks worth 587.7 points for picks worth 451 points. Drake: "The team trading down (Bills) received excess value equal to .28 number one picks, 31 percent more value than they traded away."

Sando comment: The Rams paid a premium for moving up to get a player they think can be special. The Bills had a quarterback in mind and got him later in the round. This marks the second consecutive year the Rams have traded away a pick used by the other team to land a quarterback.

Third trade

San Francisco 49ers give up: 31st and 74th picks

Dallas Cowboys give up: 18th pick

Old trade chart verdict: 49ers win. They received a pick worth 900 points for picks worth 820 points. Drake: "The team trading up (49ers) received excess value equal to .03 number one picks, 10 percent more value than they traded away."

Harvard chart verdict: Cowboys win. They received picks worth 331.6 for a pick worth 249.5 points. Drake: "The team trading down (Cowboys) received excess value equal to .17 number one picks, 33 percent more value than they traded away."

Sando comment: It's a little funny to me that the 49ers, a team fully versed in analytics, would fare much better by the old chart than by a new one. However, the 49ers use their own proprietary chart, one that might not line up with any charts used in this exercise. They needed a starting safety and got one in LSU's Eric Reid at No. 18. They also have 11 picks remaining, so they had capital to burn.

Fourth trade

St. Louis Rams give up: 22nd pick and 2015 seventh-round pick

Atlanta Falcons give up: 30th, 92nd and 198th picks

Old trade chart verdict: no clear winner. The 2015 seventh-rounder isn't worth much. I did not account for it in this exercise. The 22nd pick is worth 780 points on the old chart. The picks St. Louis gave up are worth 765.2 points. Drake: "The team trading up (Falcons) received excess value equal to zero number one picks, 2 percent more value than they traded away."

Harvard chart verdict: Rams win decisively. They received picks worth 360.3 points for a pick worth 232.3 points. There's no way a 2015 seventh-rounder would close such a gap given that the top pick in the 2013 seventh round would be worth 40.7 points on the Harvard chart. Drake: "The team trading down (Rams) received excess value equal to .26 number one picks, 56 percent more value than they traded away."

Sando comment: If the Rams paid a premium for Austin, they got it back, and then some, with this trade. I thought moving back from No. 22 made great sense for the Rams if they could get an impact player at No. 16. They paid more than I would have anticipated to move up from No. 16, but the trade down from No. 22 made things balance out favorably.

Fifth trade

New England Patriots give up: 29th pick

Minnesota Vikings give up: 52nd, 83rd, 102nd and 229th picks

Old trade chart verdict: no clear winner. The Patriots received picks worth 649.5 points for a pick worth 640 points. That's a wash. Drake: "The team trading down (Patriots) received excess value equal to zero number one picks, 1 percent more than they traded away."

Harvard chart verdict: Patriots win big. They received picks worth 410.9 points for a pick worth 208.7 points. Drake: "The team trading down (Patriots) received excess value equal to .41 number one picks, 98 percent more value than they traded away."

Sando comment: This looks like a knockout victory for the Patriots on the Harvard chart. Both teams came into the draft with a need at wide receiver. The Vikings took one, Cordarrelle Patterson. I'll be interested to see whether Patterson develops into a more dynamic threat than anyone the Patriots might select with those later selections.

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