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Friday, September 10, 2010
2009 predictions right 81.3 percent of time

By Mike Sando
ESPN.com

Uncertainty surrounding three of four NFC West teams gave me an uneasy feeling making game-by-game predictions Thursday.

Some of your feedback didn't help, either.

"I do know this: When the Hawks do beat the Rams this year (in Week 4) I'm going to make Sando eat his words! Count on it!" redzone59 wrote in response to a 5-11 projection for the Seattle Seahawks.

He was not alone.

"Oh, what a surprise, Sando thinks the Hawks will totally suck and San Fran will dominate," bowlingDizzle wrote. "You are the most predictable commentator on here. Every year you say that [stuff]."

Except for 2008, when I had Seattle winning 11 games, two more than they won that season and in 2009 combined.

But, alas, others also felt jilted.

"Sando! You're a DWEEB!" LAXO-85 wrote, contending that my seemingly generous 10-6 projection for the San Francisco 49ers wasn't optimistic enough.

I did find a friend in Joe_Couch: "Sando, I honestly got to admit I thought you weren't going to do predictions for the Cards, because they are still so hard to predict."

Amid the fallout, I went back through the 2009 game-by-game predictions to see just how poorly these types of projections work out. Guess what? The results were far, far better than expected.

My 2009 picks were right 81.3 percent of the time. That included going 14-2 on 49ers predictions, 14-2 on Rams predictions, 13-3 on Seahawks predictions and 11-5 on Cardinals predictions.

That comes out to 52-12 overall.

Darnell Dockett will surely be impressed. Gotta run. Just got picked up for some football in the street.