Monday, May 2, 2011
Revisiting those six 2011 NFL mock drafts
By Mike Sando
A few notes upon looking back at the six 2011 NFL mock drafts discussed here last week:
- Most had the right players in the right slots for most of the first six picks. Everything fell apart when the San Francisco 49ers selected Missouri's Aldon Smith at No. 7. Drafting a pass-rusher came as no shock. That it was Smith ran counter to expectations.
- Mel Kiper Jr. and Mike Mayock each had nine of the 32 players slotted correctly, regardless of which team wound up making the selections.
- Rob Rang had 29 of the 32 first-round selections going in the correct round. He missed on Da'Quan Bowers, Akeem Ayers and Andy Dalton. Rang was the only one of the six to predict James Carpenter and Christian Ponder as first-round selections. He had Carpenter going to Pittsburgh and Ponder in the 28th slot (later acquired by New Orleans from New England).
- All six mocks incorrectly thought Bowers would be a first-round selection. Five missed on Ayers and Aaron Williams.
- All six mocks correctly had Mike Pouncey landing with the Miami Dolphins at No. 15.
- Five of six mocks had Ryan Kerrigan going 16th overall. Kerrigan did go 16th, but only after the Washington Redskins acquired the pick from Jacksonville.
- Kiper had Jake Locker going 12th, higher than anyone else projected. Locker went eighth.
- Four teams drafted quarterbacks in the first round. All six mocks had Cam Newton going to Carolina. None of the six had quarterbacks going eighth to Tennessee or in the No. 10 slot, which Jacksonville acquired from Washington. Three of the six had quarterbacks going to Minnesota at No. 12. Kiper thought it would be Locker. Rang and the ESPN.com bloggers -- Kevin Seifert in this case -- thought it would be Dalton.
The first chart shows how many players the six mock drafts correctly saw as first-round picks, and how many went in the predicted slots within the first round.
The second chart shows which players appeared in the six first-round mocks, only to be selected in a later round. I've included their actual draft slots in parenthesis.