Seattle's home victory over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3 told me the Seahawks would have a good shot at posting a 3-3 record in the NFC West by winning division games at CenturyLink Field. And if the St. Louis Rams continue to spiral into oblivion, aided by an untenable injury situation, the Seahawks could conceivably sweep the season series from them.
• Herm Edwards and Brian Billick discuss the idea of teams tanking a season in hopes of positioning themselves for a top draft pick.
Home games against Cincinnati and Washington also appear winnable, as does a road game against Cleveland. Winning two of those three non-division games and three more against NFC West opponents would remove Seattle from the LuckWatch equation.
The toughest call this week was listing the Broncos and Jaguars, but not the Chiefs. Kansas City appeared doomed after losing Jamaal Charles, Eric Berry and Tony Moeaki to season-ending injuries, but the Chiefs have been quite competitive over their last two games. They already own a victory over LuckWatch competitor Minnesota. They face Indianapolis in Week 5, Miami in Week 9 and Denver twice.
The St. Louis Rams are the only 0-4 team left off the list. They're set at quarterback, which raises a question for a future LuckWatch: What could the Rams get for the No. 1 overall choice?
The record speaks for itself and the quarterback situation obviously needs addressing. Chad Henne suffered a shoulder separation that will sideline him for the remainder of the season. His long-term future with the team, like that of coach Tony Sparano, has appeared uncertain for some time.
Peyton Manning's value becomes more obvious by the week. The Colts' chances for getting a shot at the No. 1 overall pick could hinge in part on how the team fares against Kansas City in Week 5. The game is at Indianapolis, but the Colts are already 0-2 at home. They're coming off a short week and have yet to exceed 20 points in a game.
The Vikings drafted Christian Ponder just high enough (12th overall) to raise questions about whether they would consider selecting Luck if given the chance. They've already lost to Kansas City, another team on the LuckWatch list this week. They face Denver in Week 13, another game with potential implications for this list. We know this: Donovan McNabb isn't going to last much longer as the starter at this rate.
The Broncos, like the division-rival Chiefs, largely control their LuckWatch destiny. They visit Miami in Week 7 and Minnesota in Week 13. They also face Kansas City twice, including in the final game of the regular season. There's just no way one Stanford legend (Broncos executive vice president John Elway) could pass on another (Luck) if given the chance, could he?
The Jaguars have scored three touchdowns and 39 total points, both league lows. Jack Del Rio's staff and the front office are working without contracts beyond this season, raising questions about what awaits in 2012. General manager Gene Smith could conceivably get a contract extension, but changes to the coaching staff could affect the team's vision for Blaine Gabbert, particularly if there's a chance to get Luck.