Monday, November 12, 2012
QBR ranks: Sam Bradford answers call
By Mike Sando
SAN FRANCISCO -- Sam Bradford showed Sunday what he can do when armed with a talented receiver he trusts implicitly.
The St. Louis Rams' third-year quarterback completed 11 of 12 passes when targeting Danny Amendola during a 24-24 tie against the San Francisco 49ers. He completed passes to Amendola even when the 49ers had tighter-than-tight coverage.
Amendola, who had been sidelined since Oct. 4, nearly added to that total with an 80-yard reception on the first play of overtime. Officials wiped out the play after determining Rams receiver Brandon Gibson was too far off the line of scrimmage at the snap. The Rams still outgained the 49ers (458-341) while building a six-minute advantage in time of possession.
Bradford finished the game with an 82.0 out of 100 Total QBR score. That ranked second in his career to the 94.7 he posted against Denver in 2010. His previous high this season was a 77.3 against Miami.
This was the type of performance Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. was seeking when he noted last week that Bradford hadn't been productive enough to this point in his career. Bradford completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 275 yards with two touchdowns and no turnovers. He continued a season-long trend with strong play in fourth quarters (and overtime, in this case). Bradford completed 14 of 19 passes (73.7 percent) for 126 yards and a touchdown after the third quarter Sunday.
Players posting full-season QBR scores in the mid-60s and higher are generally playing at a Pro Bowl level. Bradford has reached or exceeded that level in four games this season. He has been at 47.2 or lower in the Rams' other five games. The figure is 53.1 for the season to date (50 is average).
"I can envision Bradford throwing to Amendola as a slot/move-the-chains guy, Chris Givens as the perimeter home run hitter and Brian Quick as a hopeful do-it-all No. 1 receiver type behind an improved offensive line," Williamson said Monday. "They have to be aggressive in improving the line, but Scott Wells and Harvey Dahl should make a strong center-guard combo, and Rodger Saffold looks like another qualified starter, so that rebuild might not be as extreme as some think.
"And with time, we know Bradford can make great throws, which appeared to be the case Sunday against an excellent San Francisco defense."
With that, let's check out how NFC West quarterbacks fared for Week 10 in relation to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point (thanks to ESPN Stats & Information for the charting info):
- Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams (82.0 QBR, 104.1 NFL rating): Bradford completed 26 of 39 passes (66.7 percent) for 275 yards with two touchdowns, zero interceptions and two sacks. He carried once, for no gain. He fumbled once. The Rams recovered. Bradford completed 8 of 12 passes for 102 yards on third down against the 49ers. Seven of those eight completed passes produced first downs. His third-down Total QBR was 75.9, his third-highest figure of the season (97.8 against Washington, 89.8 against Seattle). Bradford ranks third behind Peyton Manning and Matthew Stafford in QBR for fourth quarters and overtime this season (min. 100 action plays).
- Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers (51.4 QBR, 143.8 NFL rating): Smith did not participate in enough plays to qualify for inclusion in the weekly rankings. He completed 7 of 8 passes (87.5 percent) for 72 yards with one touchdown, zero interceptions and two sacks. He gained five yards on two carries, including one yard on a fourth-and-1 sneak. The 49ers think Smith suffered a concussion following that quarterback sneak. He took two other hard hits during the same drive. The team tested him for a concussion following a hit from Rams linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar. Smith passed that test. A high completion percentage and a touchdown pass pumped up Smith's NFL passer rating. Sacks worked against his QBR score. Also, Smith's passes traveled only 3.9 yards past the line of scrimmage on average. That was the second-lowest figure for a starting quarterback in Week 10 (Michael Vick, 2.2). The average was 10.3 yards for Tampa Bay's Josh Freeman, who had a 94.4 QBR score on 14-of-20 passing with two touchdowns.
- Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (45.8 QBR, 131.0 NFL rating): Wilson completed 12 of 19 passes (63.2 percent) for 188 yards with two touchdowns, zero interceptions and four sacks during a 28-7 victory over the New York Jets. He ran seven times for 34 yards and two first downs. He fumbled twice. The Jets returned one of the fumbles for their only touchdown, tying the game 7-7. Wilson did not appear comfortable early in the game despite throwing a 38-yard scoring pass. He emerged from the first quarter with a 158.3 NFL passer rating, the highest figure possible. But he appeared "rattled" to some, and Wilson's Total QBR concurred with those assessments. His score was 57.2 through one quarter, 27.8 through the first half and 45.8 for the game. Wilson completed all three attempts, one for a touchdown, without taking a sack during the fourth quarter. His QBR for that quarter was 99.0, but with only six action plays in the final quarter -- three pass attempts, three short rushes -- his full-game score lagged.
- Colin Kaepernick (40.7 QBR, 84.7 NFL rating): Kaepernick completed 11 of 17 passes (64.7 percent) for 117 yards with zero touchdowns, zero interceptions and three sacks. He carried eight times for 66 yards and five first downs, including once rushing attempt for a touchdown. Kaepernick fumbled twice. The 49ers recovered both fumbles. Kaepernick missed Vernon Davis and Kyle Williams when both were open for potential big gains. His share of the blame for sacks taken more than offset the expected points QBR determined he added through passing. That is why his score was below average.
The chart below shows how quarterbacks from games involving NFC West teams fared in Total QBR for Week 10, provided they played enough to qualify for inclusion.
The column showing point above average reveals the "number of points contributed by a quarterback over the season, accounting for QBR and how much he plays, above the level of an average quarterback."