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Monday, December 3, 2012
QBR ranks: Wilson! Kaepernick? Oh, my

By Mike Sando

Seattle Seahawks rookie Russell Wilson leads the NFL in Total QBR after Week 5.

That is a stunning achievement given that Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Robert Griffin III rank second through fifth, respectively.

Wilson ranked only 29th through Week 5. He had five touchdowns, six interceptions and a 33.9 QBR score to that point in the season.

Since then, Wilson has completed 63.5 percent of his passes for 1,529 yards with 14 touchdowns, two interceptions, 13 sacks and 13 first downs rushing. Those and other factors leave Wilson with an 83.0 QBR score over that span. Wilson is now at 65.3 for the season, right near the cutoff for Pro Bowl-caliber play over a full season.

Manning leads the NFL this season at 81.1 out of 100, with 50 right around average.

Anyone watching Wilson lead 97- and 80-yard touchdown drives to beat the Chicago Bears on Sunday knows Wilson played spectacularly. The Bears led the postgame applause. There was no surprise in seeing Wilson emerge from that game with an 85.4 QBR score for the game. He was that good.

San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick wasn't nearly as good during the 49ers' 16-13 defeat at St. Louis. A case could be made that he cost his team the game with a poor decision leading to a safety and a botched pitch. That is why I was quite surprised to see QBR reward Kaepernick with an 82.4 score Sunday.

Dean Oliver, Albert Larcada and Michelle Sastri of ESPN's analytics team pointed to positive plays Kaepernick made and limitations in the NFL's official game charting system in explaining the surprising figure. Those limitations affect very few plays to this degree, but they significantly limited how much blame Kaepernick received for his role in a costly errant pitch to Ted Ginn Jr.

Among the highlights from their responses:
I would expect ESPN's analytics department to seek ways around these sorts of abnormalities.

"We are looking into additional tracking going backward and forward to correct this illogicality, but don’t have it in place yet," Larcada said.

With that, let's take a closer look at NFC West quarterbacks in relation to Total QBR for Week 13: