Tuesday, December 11, 2012
QBR ranks: Serious halftime adjustments
By Mike Sando
The outlook for NFC West quarterbacks was dim at halftime of their games in Week 14.
San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick had completed 12 of 15 passes without making a dent in the Miami Dolphins' defense. The 49ers led 6-3 at home. Kaepernick had taken three sacks. His Total QBR score was 49.8, just below average on a 100-point scale.
In Buffalo, the St. Louis Rams' Sam Bradford had 37 yards and an interception to show for 15 first-half drop backs. His team trailed the Bills, 6-0. Bradford's QBR score at that point required a magnifying glass to see. It was 0.1, dead last among 32 starters through the first halves of games in Week 14.
In Seattle, Arizona's John Skelton was faring worse, but because the score was out of hand so quickly, his negative contributions stopped affecting in meaningful ways the Cardinals' chances for winning. His first-half QBR score was 0.5 and could have been worse if teammates' miscues hadn't widened the gap on the scoreboard.
Seattle led 17-0 and had a nearly 95 percent win probability one play into the second quarter. The Seahawks had three points off Skelton turnovers to that point. Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman made it 24-0 with a pick-six off Skelton. By then, the damage was done.
The 24 first-half points Arizona's offense and special teams all but gifted to Seattle rendered quarterback play largely irrelevant for the Seahawks. Russell Wilson attempted only 13 passes before handing off to Matt Flynn. The score was already 31-0 when he found Zach Miller for a 24-yard touchdown. It was 31-0 when he threw an interception at home for the first time all season. Those plays didn't matter much.
Wilson finished the game with a 42.8 QBR score. The third-down sack he took in the red zone forced Seattle to settle for a field goal and a 3-0 lead. Wilson never saw the Cardinals' Quentin Groves coming his way. Quarterbacks are generally responsible for free rushers on their front sides. It looked like Wilson might have expected right tackle Breno Giacomini to make the block. The play could have been costly in a closer game or if Wilson had suffered an injury.
While Wilson wasn't needed and Skelton played his way onto the bench, Kaepernick and Bradford finished strong, leading their teams to victory. Both ranked among the NFL's top seven in second-half QBR scores for Week 14, Bradford at 89.1 and Kaepernick at 86.9. Bradford led the winning 84-yard touchdown drive in the final minutes. Kaepernick's 50-yard touchdown run put away the Dolphins.
What was the difference late in games? Sometimes I think circumstances compel teams to play more aggressively. Bradford made aggressive throws late in the game against Buffalo. His receivers made tough catches. His line held up in protection as the Bills generally refrained from rushing more than four defenders. Kaepernick, meanwhile, did what very few quarterbacks can do: outrun a defense.
With that, let's take a closer look at NFC West quarterbacks in relation to Total QBR for Week 14:
- Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (64.1 QBR, 100.2 NFL rating). Kaepernick completed 18 of 23 passes (78.3 percent) for 185 yards with zero touchdowns, zero interceptions, four sacks and one fumble. Kaepernick rushed six times for 53 yards and the clinching touchdown. Kaepernick came close to connecting on two deeper throws. The Dolphins got away with interference on Randy Moss to break up one. Kaepernick missed Michael Crabtree on another. Teams seem to be forcing Kaepernick to beat them with shorter throws. The quarterback's passes have traveled 6.7 yards past the line of scrimmage on average over the past three games. That is down from 10.2 yards against Chicago. It's also less than the 7.5-yard average for Alex Smith this season.
- Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (42.8 QBR, 88.0 NFL rating). Wilson completed 7 of 13 passes (53.8 percent) for 148 yards with one touchdown, one interception, one sack and no fumbles. He carried three times for 12 yards. Wilson's passes traveled 14.2 yards past the line of scrimmage on average, most in the NFL for Week 14 by 1.5 yards. His numbers in two games against Arizona aren't very good. Wilson completed 53.2 percent of his passes with two touchdowns, two picks, four sacks and a 29.5 QBR score. Then again, Tom Brady was at 30.6 against Arizona. Matt Ryan was at 31.2. Wilson ranks second to Peyton Manning in QBR from Week 6 to present. He ranks 11th for the season among qualified quarterbacks at 64.8.
- Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams (25.9 QBR, 62.9 NFL rating). Bradford completed 19 of 39 passes (48.7 percent) for 209 yards with one touchdown, one interception, one pass for a two-point conversion, one sack and one fumble. He rushed four times for 13 yards. We took an in-depth look at Bradford and the Rams during their 84-yard winning drive. More here.
- Ryan Lindley, Arizona Cardinals (7.7 QBR, 55.8 NFL rating). Lindley completed 8 of 17 passes (47.1 percent) for 59 yards with zero touchdowns, zero interceptions, two sacks and one lost fumble. He lost 2 yards on his lone rushing attempt. Lindley's average pass length was down to a more manageable 7.1 from 9.7 previously this season. He still struggled, but the Cardinals haven't helped him out much. Their offensive line is weakened by injuries. Arizona has sent Lindley onto the field mid-game at Atlanta. The Cardinals have asked him to start against a New York Jets defense that can confuse younger quarterbacks. They had him throw 24 times in the first half against St. Louis. And then they threw him into a blowout against Seattle in one of the more hostile playing environments anywhere. Great way to nurture a rookie sixth-round draft choice, eh?
- John Skelton, Arizona Cardinals (0.4 QBR, 18.2 NFL rating). Skelton completed 11 of 22 passes (50 percent) for 74 yards with zero touchdowns, four interceptions, one sack and two fumbles, one of them lost. He gained 2 yards on two rushing attempts. The more the Cardinals have asked from Skelton, the more obvious it's become that he cannot deliver. Skelton now has two touchdowns with nine interceptions for the season. His days as a regular starting quarterback appear nearing an end.
Seahawks backup Matt Flynn completed 5 of 9 attempts for 68 yards. The game was a blowout, however. Measuring his contributions through QBR under those circumstances wouldn't tell us much. QBR, after all, aims to measure how much a quarterback contributes to winning. Wilson barely affected the game's outcome. Flynn had no bearing on it.