NFC West: 2011 NFL Draft



ESPN's Trent Dilfer played for the Seattle Seahawks years ago, but he had serious questions about them last offseason.

Dilfer criticized their 2011 draft class, specifically the decision to draft offensive lineman James Carpenter over quarterback Andy Dalton.

But with fifth-round cornerback Richard Sherman emerging as part of a strong Seahawks secondary, Dilfer has pointed to the Seahawks as a potential surprise team in 2012.

Dilfer, Chris Mortensen and Mel Kiper Jr. focused on several other potential surprise teams in the "On the clock" video above. Dilfer explained his thinking on the Seahawks later in the segment. He likes Matt Flynn's addition and Seattle's ability to play pass coverage.

Quarterback perceptions can be volatile.

In my view, negative perceptions regarding Kevin Kolb have made it easier for analysts to discount the Arizona Cardinals' 7-2 record to finish last season. The feel was quite different last offseason, before Kolb had played for the team and struggled.


With Pettis out, revisiting NFC West drafts

December, 22, 2011
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Rookie draft choices are making strong contributions throughout the NFC West, but less so in St. Louis after the NFL suspended receiver Austin Pettis.

More on the Rams' rookie class below. First, a look at how other teams' rookies have fared:
  • Seattle: Fourth-round linebacker K.J. Wright and fifth-round cornerback Richard Sherman are flourishing as starters for Seattle. First-rounder James Carpenter and third-rounder John Moffitt were starting for the Seahawks until injuries ended their season.
  • San Francisco: First-rounder Aldon Smith has become a candidate for defensive rookie of the year with 13 sacks in 14 games. Third-rounder Chris Culliver and fourth-rounder Kendall Hunter have become key role players on an 11-3 team. Seventh-rounder Bruce Miller has developed into the starting fullback. The team asked nothing right away from second-round choice Colin Kaepernick, the backup quarterback.
  • Arizona: The Cardinals' first-round choice, Patrick Peterson, has set records as a return specialist, returning four punts for touchdowns. He has started all season at cornerback and has increasingly made positive contributions to an improving defense. Fourth-round outside linebacker Sam Acho and fifth-round fullback Anthony Sherman have become solid starters. Acho has five sacks. Sixth-rounder David Carter has contributed as part of the rotation on the defensive line.

Back to the Rams. As the chart shows, first-rounder Robert Quinn and second-rounder Lance Kendricks remain on the 53-man roster. Pettis, a third-round choice, and fourth-rounder Greg Salas are out for the season. The Rams drafted four additional players, three in the seventh round, and none remains with the team.

St. Louis had no 2011 sixth-rounder after sending it to Baltimore in the Mark Clayton trade. Clayton made an immediate impact last season, but injuries have forced him to miss 24 of 30 games.
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Around the West: On Pettis' suspension

December, 22, 2011
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News that rookie receiver Austin Pettis had been suspended for using performance-enhancing drugs delivered more bad news for the St. Louis Rams' 2011 draft class.

With Pettis out through the first two games in 2011, the Rams have only two of their own rookie draft choice on their 53-man roster.

First-round choice Robert Quinn and second-rounder Lance Kendricks remain active for the Rams from a group that included Pettis (suspended), Greg Salas (injured reserve), Jermale Hines (released, now with Indianapolis), Mikhail Baker (released), Jabara Williams (released, now with Chicago) and Jonathan Nelson (released, now with Carolina).

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch offered details on what the suspension means for Pettis. Thomas: "Pettis is eligible to participate in all offseason and preseason practices and games following the conclusion of this season. But regardless of whether there's a head-coaching change or not, missing the first two contests of the 2012 season will put him behind the other wideouts on the depth chart and in his quest for playing time."

Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch said Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo and general manager Billy Devaney do not deserve much sympathy. Miklasz: "In a league of parity and close games, the Rams have been outscored 1,110 to 630 overall in Spags' time as head coach, with an average loss of 16 points. This team isn't competitive. Here's the odd thing: The more the Rams lose, the more we seem inclined to make excuses on their behalf or attempt to rationalize their failures. We've become enablers. And I'm not bashing the fans; the media is at fault as much as anyone. ... This isn't high school football. Spagnuolo was hired to win football games. If a coach can't win games, he's fired. He could be a saint or a sinner, but he needs to be a winner. Besides, Spagnuolo has fired trainers, an equipment manager and other employees at Rams Park. A big part of his job is terminating players. It's nothing personal. So why are we so sensitive about Spagnuolo's future?"

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com says Paul McQuistan's use across the Seahawks' offensive line tells a story. Farnsworth: "The trials and tribulations of the Seahawks’ injury-ravaged offensive line can he traced by following McQuistan’s progression from being a backup; to starting at left guard; to returning to his backup role; to starting at right guard; to starting at left tackle. McQuistan stepped in at left guard because Robert Gallery was out with a groin injury. He moved in at right guard after rookie John Moffitt went down with a season-ending knee injury. He slid over to left tackle when Russell Okung needed season-ending surgery to repair a torn pectoral."

Also from Farnsworth: Tarvaris Jackson has stepped up his game in second halves recently.

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times says injuries haven't stopped the Seahawks' offensive line from succeeding.

Eric D. Williams of the Tacoma News Tribune checks in with 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, who laments not drafting receiver Doug Baldwin. Baldwin and cornerback Richard Sherman are two Seattle players with roots on Harbaugh's former Stanford teams. Harbaugh: "Yeah, I’m kicking myself for not doing that. And at the same time I’m really, really happy for Doug. I’ve watched him this whole year whenever we’re watching crossover tape. Or I’ve sometimes put on the tape, just to watch him and Richard. And I’ve seen him really grow the whole season."

Also from Williams: Marshawn Lynch has become the Seahawks' face.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic updates the Cardinals' quarterback situation heading into Week 16. Sounds like John Skelton might get another start over Kevin Kolb, who remains limited following a concussion. Somers: "On Monday, Whisenhunt said the fairest way to prepare one of the quarterbacks was to give him most of the work in practice. Judging by Wednesday's events, that appears to be Skelton. Kolb was listed as limited in practice, while Skelton is healthy. The Cardinals are 5-1 in games Skelton has either started or taken the majority of the snaps. Skelton has a tendency to start slowly and finish strongly. In four of Skelton's past eight games, the Cardinals have made game-winning drives in the fourth quarter."

Also from Somers, with Jim Gintonio: Deuce Lutui professes to be a changed man after nearly landing with the Cincinnati Bengals during the offseason. Lutui: "Where I was and where I'm at now, I could have seen it as frustration or I could have seen it as a problem or stated it as an opportunity. I've taken it as an opportunity. I've taken all the help that I can get. I've stuck in with John Lott (strength and conditioning coach), really a credit to him in helping me get in the best shape that I can. ... I also worked with my head, off the field, and went in with a mental coach. I've got a mental coach that's helped me elevate my game and alter the way I think for the next offseason, and so I've put a lot in my mind and body this year.""

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com has this to say about the quarterback situation in Arizona: "The way the defense has been performing for the Cards would help any quarterback. Skelton has had plenty of rough patches, but Whisenhunt acknowledged he’d rather have a quarterback that can finish than one who starts fast and fades. Skelton, whose beginnings to games have been almost as unimpressive as his finishes impressive, certainly falls into that category."

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee says Braylon Edwards is anxious to get back on the field for the 49ers. Tight end Vernon Davis tweeted words of support to Edwards, who has struggled and was not active Monday night. Davis: "Just the look on his face is he wants to be out there bad. But I don't know the reason he's not. That's up to the coaches and him and Ferg (head trainer Jeff Ferguson) and the trainers. ... Just saying kind words like that keeps a guy like that level-headed and keeps him hungry and keeps him ready to go at any time. And I just felt that upon my spirit to lay that out there. And he is -- he's a guy that I'm grateful to have on the team. He's a true playmaker, and if given the opportunity I'm sure he'll take advantage of it."

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com has this to say about Justin Smith in his defensive player review from Week 15: "Started at right defensive end and had an outstanding all-around game. He had three tackles, a quarterback hurry and a fumble recovery, but he also set up Aldon Smith for a couple of sacks ... Left guard Trai Essex held him for a 10-yard penalty to wipe out a 6-yard gain in the second quarter ... Fought through left side of Steelers line and Rashard Mendenhall to pressure Ben Roethlisberger into second-quarter incompletion. ... Recovered fourth-quarter fumble that directly led to 49ers touchdown ... Generously gave himself up to tie up Essex so that Aldon Smith could record a 6-yard sack ... Justin Smith did the same thing on the next series, resulting in another Aldon Smith sack."

Also from Maiocco: an offensive player review. On Frank Gore: "Dropped a pass out of the backfield on the first drive ... Missed Cameron Heyward in blitz pickup as Smith was rushed into incompletion on first drive ... Dropped another pass on third-and-7, though it was unlikely he would've picked up first down with defensive lineman Brett Keisel standing between him and the sticks ... Called for chop block on defensive lineman Ziggy Hood, as center Jonathan Goodwin had his left hand on Hood as Gore went low to block Hood. Did not play the final nine minutes after scoring on 5-yard TD."

Grant Cohn of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat passes along Steve Young's thoughts on Aldon Smith, expressed recently on KNBR radio. Young compared Smith to a young Charles Haley. Young: "I’ve got to be honest with you. I’ve got to apologize to Aldon Smith because I hadn’t really seen him in person all year. And I apologize, because I had no idea how great he really was until I saw him in person. And that’s what matters. Hearing about it, watching it on TV and then seeing in person -- all different visceral relationships you have with something, and it matters. So around the league when everyone watched the 49ers kind of beat up on Ben Roethlisberger, don’t let him score, call a couple big touchdown drives, and they hear about the defense, they’ve watched Aldon Smith play and (laughs) whoever doesn’t think these guys are for real is kidding themselves."

Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News examines Andy Lee's contributions to the 49ers. Lee was the NFC's player of the week for special teams.

How Von Miller, Aldon Smith stack up

December, 8, 2011
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The Denver Broncos' Von Miller has collected 10.5 sacks as a rookie despite having extensive responsibilities against the run as well.

Very impressive.

The San Francisco 49ers' Aldon Smith has 9.5 sacks despite playing 325 fewer total snaps than Miller.

Again, very impressive.

Facebook friend Paul came up with the idea for this one. Hank Gargiulo of ESPN Stats & Information helped with the numbers.

Miller is likely the favorite for defensive rookie of the year. Smith should be in the conversation as well. Both were first-round draft choices. The Broncos selected Miller second overall. The 49ers chose Smith with the seventh pick.

Smith plays in passing situations. He sacks opposing quarterbacks more frequently than Miller on a per-pass basis, but he also has an advantage based on when he plays. Miller, as an every-down player, must shift from playing the run to rushing the passer when opponents throw on early downs.

Both players are making significant impacts for their teams. I would expect Smith to become a 49ers starter next season.

On the Seahawks winning too many games

November, 16, 2011
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The next month could decide whether the Seattle Seahawks draft early enough to select the quarterback they like the most.

Seattle, having upset Baltimore in Week 10, plays its next four games against teams with losing records. Three of those games are at home. The lone road game falls against 2-7 St. Louis in Week 11.

The Seahawks could plausibly go from 3-6 to 6-7 or even 7-6 over the next month. Their final three games -- at Chicago, home against San Francisco and at Arizona -- will be tougher to win. But the victory over Baltimore, backed by a capable defense and improving offensive line, have made 6-10 or 7-9 reachable for this team.

Teams winning seven or more games last season drafted 14th or later. Teams winning six games last season drafted between seventh and 13th. The first four quarterbacks drafted were gone among the top 12 overall choices, an unusual early run.

Of course, plenty of quarterbacks drafted early fail to meet expectations, but banking on the second round isn't the way to find one. And if the Seahawks' leadership has a good feel for personnel, they'll fare better over time with earlier picks than with later ones.

The first chart breaks out draftmetrics.com research showing what became of quarterbacks based on how early NFL teams drafted them from 1991-2004. Stopping at 2004 allowed the research to show which percentage of drafted quarterbacks had become five-year starters by last season. Teams drafted a disproportionate number of quarterbacks among the top 13 choices. The chart divides picks into seven "value groups" that the study's author, Tony Villiotti, described as "a subjective process, though based on objective information."

As the first chart shows, a significantly higher percentage of quarterbacks drafted in the first value group became five-year starters and Pro Bowl quarterbacks, despite memorable failures by some highly drafted passers.

The chart below is my own. It shows how early the first through fifth drafted quarterbacks were selected from 2008-11. For example, the first quarterback drafted went first overall in each of the last three drafts, and third overall in 2008. The fifth quarterback drafted last year, Andy Dalton, went 35th and was available when the Seahawks were on the clock with the 25th overall choice.

Mel Kiper Jr., writing for Insider subscribers, lists four quarterbacks among his top 24 prospects for the 2012 NFL draft. He lists Andrew Luck first, Landry Jones fourth, Matt Barkley 10th and Robert Griffin 24th. Teams tend to over-draft quarterbacks because they value the position so much, one reason the Seahawks can feel better about the draft if they're picking a little earlier.

Moffitt out: Seahawks draft class update

November, 14, 2011
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A quick look at the Seattle Seahawks' 2011 draft class after coach Pete Carroll told reporters Monday the team lost right guard John Moffitt to a season-ending knee injury ...

Taking stock: NFC West defensive rookies

November, 3, 2011
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Playing-time percentages for NFC West defensive rookies tell us a few things:
  • Draft order matters. The three defensive players chosen in the first round are the three with the most playing time. Starting cornerbacks stay on the field for almost all the snaps. That, more than performance, explains why Arizona's Patrick Peterson has played so much more than pass-rushers Aldon Smith and Robert Quinn.
  • Fifth-round safeties did not last. The Seattle Seahawks cut Mark LeGree. The St. Louis Rams cut Jermale Hines.
  • Good values at cornerback. The San Francisco 49ers found a quick contributor in third-round cornerback Chris Culliver, who has seized the nickel job. The Seahawks' fifth-round corner, Richard Sherman, is also looking good early. Injuries forced him into the starting lineup last week. Sherman picked off one pass and tipped a ball that teammate Kam Chancellor intercepted.
  • Mid-round linebackers ascending. Seattle's K.J. Wright and Arizona's Sam Acho are dissimilar as linebackers. Wright has played the middle after entering the draft as a strongside type, and now he is starting on the strong side. Acho is converting from college defensive end to 3-4 outside linebacker. There are similarities as well. Both have replaced big names in their starting lineups. Wright replaced Aaron Curry. Acho replaced Joey Porter. Both players have impressed their teams with their smarts. Acho has one sack in each of the Cardinals' last two games.
  • Late-round find. The Cardinals have been pleased with sixth-round defensive lineman David Carter, even though another sixth-rounder, Quan Sturdivant, came to the team with higher expectations for making an immediate impact. Carter has pushed 2010 first-round pick Dan Williams for playing time. Williams has 152 snaps. Carter has 105.

Thanks to Hank Gargiulo of ESPN Stats & Information for passing along the numbers. Dashes represent bye weeks in the chart.

Where NFC West first-round picks stand

November, 1, 2011
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A quick look at where NFC West rookie first-round draft choices stand at roughly the midpoint of the 2011 season:
  • Patrick Peterson, CB, Arizona Cardinals (5th overall): Peterson has started all seven games. He has one interception and has not yet upgraded the Cardinals' pass defense. Peterson has had problems with penalties, but he generally wasn't the one in coverage when Arizona appeared helpless against Anquan Boldin last week or, for one play, Mike Wallace the previous week. Peterson has dramatically upgraded the Cardinals' punt-return game. His touchdown was the difference in the team's victory against Carolina in the opener. He scored again as the Cardinals nearly upset Baltimore. It's fair to say the Cardinals might be winless without him.
  • Aldon Smith, OLB, San Francisco 49ers (7th overall): Smith has become a legitimate candidate for defensive rookie of the year. He has 6.5 sacks, most in the NFC West and seventh-most in the league. Smith also collected a key safety during a 25-19 victory at previously unbeaten Detroit. The 49ers' 6-1 record and lofty standing on defense work in Smith's favor regarding rookie honors. Smith is improving as the season progresses and playing a more prominent role. He has collected all of his sacks in the 49ers' last four games. He has a realistic shot at double-digit sacks.
  • Robert Quinn, DE, St. Louis Rams (14th overall): Quinn improved his standing substantially with a sack and blocked punt during the Rams' upset victory over the New Orleans Saints in Week 8. The Rams did not plan for Quinn to start this season. James Hall remains the starter ahead of him. Quinn's performance against the Saints suggests his playing time should continue to increase. I thought Quinn started to come on against Washington a few weeks ago. The Rams haven't scored enough points to create the favorable pass-rush situations that would play to Quinn's strengths, particularly at home.
  • James Carpenter, RT, Seattle Seahawks (25th overall): Carpenter has started every game for the Seahawks, mostly at right tackle, but also at left guard. His conditioning was a problem early. Carpenter was making strides, but the last couple games have been difficult. Officials flagged Carpenter for two penalties in third-and-long situations against the Bengals. The trend could continue as the Seahawks prepare to face the Dallas Cowboys on the road in Week 9. Overall, though, Carpenter appears on track as the starting right tackle.

Teams aren't getting much from their second-round picks. Arizona's Ryan Williams is on injured reserve. San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick is the No. 2 quarterback, as expected. Lance Kendricks is playing for St. Louis, but his role has diminished lately. The Seattle Seahawks did not make a second-round selection.

On 49ers' Smith, Seahawks' Baldwin

October, 11, 2011
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Passing along: The San Francisco 49ers' Aldon Smith and the Seattle Seahawks' Doug Baldwin are up for rookie honors through NFL.com this week.

Smith, drafted seventh overall, is coming off a two-sack game against Tampa Bay. He has 3.5 sacks in his last two games, and for the season. Baldwin, undrafted out of Stanford, caught eight passes for 136 yards and the winning touchdown against the New York Giants.

Smith ranks second to Von Miller among rookies in sacks. Miller has five.

Baldwin ranks third among rookies with 20 receptions, behind only first-round picks Julio Jones (25) and A.J. Green (24).
Twenty-one 2011 first-round draft picks have started at least one preseason game this summer.

Seattle's James Carpenter is the only one from the NFC West to start so far. He has struggled in pass protection while showing promise in the running game. Like some other rookie offensive linemen -- Green Bay's Derek Sherrod comes to mind -- Carpenter is facing growing pains in his transition to the NFL.

Arizona's Patrick Peterson is the only player drafted among the top six overall picks without a start. He returned an interception 34 yards for a touchdown Saturday night. The Cardinals like their depth at cornerback. Coach Ken Whisenhunt also tends to make rookies earn their starting spots. Greg Toler's injury could lead to increased snaps for Peterson.

The two first-round NFC West pass-rushers, Aldon Smith (San Francisco) and Robert Quinn (St. Louis), are easing into their roles. Smith has at times looked like a favorite to start right away, but he continues working with the backups. The Rams have no plans to push Quinn into the starting lineup right away. They're set at defensive end. Quinn could use seasoning after missing the 2010 season.

Three of the 11 first-rounders without starts this summer have been sidelined by injuries: Nick Fairley (Detroit), Prince Amukamara (New York Giants) and Jon Baldwin (Kansas City).

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Ryan Williams' confirmed season-ending injury will prevent the Arizona Cardinals' 2011 draft class from reaching its expected potential this season.

Williams, injured while carrying the ball against Green Bay in the Cardinals' preseason game Friday night, was pushing Beanie Wells for playing time. He projected as a potential starter, perhaps as early as this season.

The Cardinals should still expect significant contributions from their 2011 draft class.

It's an upset if Patrick Peterson doesn't take over as the starting left cornerback early in the season.

Third-rounder Rob Housler needs seasoning as a blocker, but his receiving skills have stood out during preseason. He caught a touchdown pass in the opener and led Arizona in receptions with five against Green Bay.

Anthony Sherman made an immediate positive impression at fullback early in camp. He caught a pass for a 6-yard gain on third-and-2 against the Packers.

David Carter went from projected defensive end to No. 2 nose tackle early in camp.

Receiver DeMarco Sampson, the Cardinals' seventh-round pick, has continued to produce during preseason games after impressing during camp practices. He had three receptions for 68 yards against the Packers, including one for a 45-yard gain.

The chart shows the Cardinals' 2011 draft class, sorted by order chosen.
The San Francisco 49ers are quite happy with themselves, and justifiably so, after reaching contract agreements with all their 2011 draft choices before camp.

Getting second-round choice Colin Kaepernick signed in time was most important for a few reasons:
  • Lockout effect. The lockout has prevented players from learning their playbooks as well as they would have otherwise learned them. Quarterbacks have more to learn than other players. Their responsibilities are vaster. Kaepernick needs every day of coaching he can get to prepare for the season.
  • Arms shortage. The prohibition on veteran free agents practicing before Aug. 4 prevents Alex Smith from taking the lead when the 49ers open camp Thursday. The team plans to release veteran backup David Carr. From a purely practical standpoint, the 49ers needed Kaepernick in camp. Every arm is especially valuable at the moment.
  • Goodwill factor. The 49ers already have to worry about Frank Gore possibly holding out to open camp. They didn't need any other contract disputes heading into Jim Harbaugh's first camp as head coach.

The new labor agreement has narrowed parameters for rookie contracts. That should help teams get deals done in a more timely fashion.
The Seattle Seahawks announced contract agreements with 19 undrafted rookies Tuesday.

I've sorted them by position group for quick scanning.

As noted, Seattle needed multiple quarterbacks in the short term to get through practices before the league year begins Aug. 4. Rookies can practice immediately. Veterans with contracts that expired following the 2010 season must wait until Aug. 4 before practicing under terms of their new contracts.

Josh Portis and Zac Lee give Seattle two young arms for camp.

Portis comes to Seattle with NFL roots. His cousin, Clinton Portis, has rushed for 9,923 yards in nine NFL seasons. Lee played for Nebraska and bounced back from arm surgery to address an injury suffered during his junior season. He worked out for NFL teams, including the San Francisco 49ers, but was not drafted.

Portis and Lee are both on the shorter side for NFL quarterbacks, measuring under 6-foot-3. Both ran the 40-yard dash in about 4.6 seconds.

The most recent Football Today podcast with Ross Tucker and Matt Williamson takes an in-depth, balanced look at the Seattle Seahawks' thinking in the 2011 NFL draft.

Tucker and Williamson offer points and counterpoints as to the Seahawks' decision to select Alabama tackle James Carpenter with the 25th overall choice. I'll provide a transcript covering this portion of the discussion, followed by some thoughts in conclusion.

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James Carpenter
Derick E. Hingle/US PresswireJames Carpenter gives the Seahawks another physical lineman to use in their offensive scheme.
The conversation began with Tucker noting that he had predicted Carpenter as a first-round selection based on what he was hearing from offensive line coaches.
Ross Tucker: "I talked to two teams that both really, really liked him and both said they would be surprised if he didn’t go late first round. ... A lot of people really like him. He is very physical. They think he can play four different positions. Both guards and both tackles. Played at Alabama. High level of competition. Played for Joe Pendry, who was, ironically enough, my offensive line coach my rookie year with the Washington Redskins. And evidently, Joe Pendry really talked him up to people.

"This may surprise you, but I’m not typically a big fan of drafting offensive linemen high. So, I don’t love the pick because I think you can get a guy in the third, fourth round that maybe you train him for a year or maybe even not and maybe he goes in there and plays well. Like what Marshal Yanda did with the Ravens when they took him in the third round. I think you can get good offensive linemen in the third and fourth round. And so I’m not enamored with what they did with Carpenter and I’m really not enamored with what they did getting John Moffitt in the third round. I think Moffitt is a tough guy. He looks like he is guy was willing to be physical. But I think they could get comparable players lower."

Matt Williamson: "I am a believer that you can get by with mediocre offensive line talent. They don’t have to be Orlando Pace in terms of physical abilities if you are tough and you are smart. You have to have those two attributes. A lot of those guys in turn can play multiple positions. But I can’t be real, real critical of this pick, either, because their line was so bad. They used a first-round pick on Russell Okung, who I love, at left tackle last year. Now they have a set of bookends.

"They had so many needs, they could have went in a lot of directions. A guy like Jimmy Smith would have been a really good pick. They need a lot of things in Seattle, but right tackle was certainly one of them. I don’t think it was a reach. Obviously, they are trying to get to be very, very physical. Their two offensive line selections suggest they want to run the football, they want to be a more physical football team than who they go up against. I can’t be real critical of it, although I think their draft in general was pretty blah."

Ross Tucker: "And that is the one thing I always say about the draft: Why do you think people were appalled by that pick? I’ll tell you why. Because none of them had ever seen any mock draft, James Carpenter going in the first round. If they had taken Gabe Carimi, I don’t think people would have been that appalled by it. They would go, 'OK, Gabe Carimi from Wisconsin, good player, first-round pick, I’m glad we got him.' Or if James Carpenter had been listed in a bunch of mock drafts as going at going 17 and 19. So much of what people think of your draft is based on their perceptions before the draft, which might be completely wrong."

This conversation captures the debate perfectly. Drafting two offensive linemen made great sense for the Seahawks based on their priorities and needs, but it's fair to ask whether they overvalued right tackle and guard, which qualify as non-premium positions.

The same questions apply to the San Francisco 49ers, who used 2010 first-round choices for a right tackle (Anthony Davis) and left guard (Mike Iupati), and also to the St. Louis Rams, who used the second overall choice of the 2009 draft for a right tackle (Jason Smith). The Arizona Cardinals' Levi Brown, chosen fifth overall in 2007, played right tackle until last season.

In the end, teams have no reason to regret selecting such players early if their offensive lines perform at a high level for an extended period.
The Seattle Seahawks were on the clock with the 99th overall choice in the 2011 NFL draft when the Minnesota Vikings called to inquire about a trade.

Coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider had a decision to make. The team wanted to add more picks, so sliding back into the Vikings' spot at No. 106 carried some appeal. But the Seahawks had not addressed defense to that point in the draft, and Mississippi State outside linebacker K.J. Wright was a player they had been targeting.

Seattle decided to stand pat at No. 99.

"It is rare that you would find a linebacker with that much length (6-foot-4) and 4.6 speed," Carroll said after the draft. "We need that flexibility."

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K.J. Wright
AP Photo/Michael ConroyK.J. Wright, who was drafted by the Seahawks with the No. 99 pick, was the last 4-3 strongside linebacker drafted.
This seemed a bit improbable. After all, teams selected 24 more linebackers over the remaining 155 selections. Surely one of them could have provided what the Seahawks wanted from Wright, right? Not necessarily. The more I studied those selections, the more I understood what Carroll was talking about. Wright was the fourth and final 4-3 strongside linebacker selected in the draft. All were gone among the top 100 selections.

The NFL has become so specialized, particularly on defense, that players are increasingly difficult to categorize. Seeking fresh perspective on the 2011 draft, I reclassified the 254 players chosen into 20 positional categories, based largely on how teams plan to use them. The process was imperfect because teams view players differently, and some players transcend easy categorization. But patterns that emerged were helpful in bringing the big picture into clearer focus.

Breaking down linebackers into five categories across 3-4 and 4-3 schemes was particularly helpful.

Teams selected one 4-3 strongside linebacker in each of the first four rounds, but none thereafter. They selected 12 4-3 weakside linebackers -- none in the first two rounds, five in the sixth and three in the seventh. That position carried less value relative to others based on when the players came off the board.

Nine of 11 4-3 defensive tackles went in the first three rounds, affirming how much teams value that position. Teams selected five 4-3 defensive ends in the first two rounds, then none until taking one in the fifth and four more in the seventh. Teams selected four five-technique defensive ends in the first round and one in the second, but none over the next four rounds.

I ultimately divided players into percentiles based on where they were selected in relation to other players from the same positional categories. Three NFC West players were the first players chosen at their specific positions. They were in the top percentile for their positions. Three, including Wright, were the last players chosen at their specific positions. They were in the bottom percentile.

The percentiles say nothing about whether individual players will succeed in the NFL. In some cases, players with lower percentiles probably carried more value at that moment in the draft based on how few prospects remained available at their positions.

Without categorizing players more specifically, we might not have any idea.

Overall, this draft featured 37 cornerbacks; 28 wide receivers; 24 running backs; 21 interior offensive linemen; 20 offensive tackles; 16 safeties; 13 tight ends; 12 quarterbacks; 12 4-3 weakside linebackers; 11 4-3 defensive tackles; 10 4-3 defensive ends; 10 3-4 outside linebackers; eight five-technique defensive ends; seven 3-4 inside linebackers; seven fullbacks; six 4-3 middle linebackers; four 4-3 strongside linebackers; four nose tackles; and two specialists. Two defensive linemen -- Kansas City's Allen Bailey and Baltimore's Pernell McPhee -- qualified as nickel pass-rushers.

And now, a look at all 35 NFC West draft choices, listed by how early they were drafted in relation to other players at their specific positions:

First quarter: 75th percentile and higher

Patrick Peterson, CB, Arizona Cardinals: First of 37 cornerbacks selected

Aldon Smith, OLB, San Francisco 49ers: First of 10 3-4 outside linebackers

Robert Quinn, DE, St. Louis Rams: First of 10 4-3 defensive ends

Ryan Williams, RB, Cardinals: Second of 24 running backs, putting him in the 91.7 percentile for the position (FBs excluded)

Lance Kendricks, TE, Rams: Second of 13 tight ends (84.6)

James Carpenter, T, Seattle Seahawks: Fourth of 20 offensive tackles (80.0)

Chris Culliver, CB, 49ers: Eighth of 37 cornerbacks (78.4)

Rob Housler, TE, Cardinals: Third of 13 tight ends (76.9)

John Moffitt, G, Seahawks: Fifth of 21 interior offensive linemen (76.2)

Second quarter: 50th to 74th percentile

Anthony Sherman, FB, Cardinals: Second of seven fullbacks (71.4)

Austin Pettis, WR, Rams: Eighth of 28 wide receivers (71.4)

Kendall Hunter, RB, 49ers: Tenth of 24 running backs (58.3)

Bruce Miller, FB, 49ers: Third of seven fullbacks (57.1)

Kris Durham, WR, Seahawks: 12th of 28 wide receivers (57.1)

Daniel Kilgore, C, 49ers: 10th of 21 interior offensive linemen (52.4)

Sam Acho, OLB, Cardinals: Fifth of 10 3-4 outside linebackers (50.0)

Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers: Sixth of 12 quarterbacks (50.0)

Greg Salas, WR, Rams: 14th of 28 wide receivers (50.0)

Third quarter: 25th to 49th percentile

Richard Sherman, CB, Seahawks: 24th of 37 cornerbacks (35.1)

Mark LeGree, S, Seahawks: 11th of 16 safeties (31.3)

Quan Sturdivant, ILB, Cardinals: Fifth of seven 3-4 inside linebackers (28.6)

Byron Maxwell, CB, Seahawks: 27th of 37 cornerbacks (27.0)

David Carter, DE, Cardinals: Sixth of eight five-technique defensive ends (25.0)

Jermale Hines, S, Rams: 12th of 16 safeties (25.0)

Fourth quarter: Zero to 24th percentile

Colin Jones, S, 49ers: 13th of 16 safeties (18.8)

Jabara Williams, LB, Rams: 10th of 12 4-3 weakside linebackers (16.7 )

Ronald Johnson, WR, 49ers: 24th of 28 wide receivers (14.3)

Mikail Baker, CB, Rams: 32nd of 37 cornerbacks (13.5)

Pep Levingston, DE, Seahawks: Seventh of eight five-technique defensive ends (12.5)

Mike Person, C, 49ers: 19th of 21 interior offensive linemen (9.5)

Malcolm Smith, LB, Seahawks. Eleventh of 12 4-3 weakside linebackers (8.3)

Jonathan Nelson, S, Rams: 15th of 16 safeties (6.3)

K.J. Wright, LB, Seahawks: Fourth of four 4-3 strongside linebackers (0.0)

DeMarco Sampson, WR, Cardinals: 28th of 28 wide receivers(0.0)

Curtis Holcomb, CB, 49ers: 37th of 37 cornerbacks (0.0)

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