NFC West: 2012 Week 2 NFL power rankings

NFL Nation: 4 Downs -- NFC West

April, 10, 2014
Apr 10
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video
Catch us if you can.

That’s a message the Seattle Seahawks could send out to the rest of the NFC West.

It is also something the San Francisco 49ers might say to the Arizona Cardinals and the St. Louis Rams. But the Cardinals and Rams might have a statement of their own: We’re coming for you.

By almost everyone’s estimation, the NFC West is the best division in the NFL. It includes a Super Bowl champion in Seattle along with a team in San Francisco that, arguably, came up one play short of reaching its second consecutive Super Bowl.

It also includes a team in Arizona that won 10 games, one of which was a victory at Seattle -- the Seahawks' only home loss in 2013. And there's a team in St. Louis that won two of its last three games to finish 7-9 while playing most of the season without starting quarterback Sam Bradford.

So the question heading into 2014 is whether the Cardinals and Rams are in position to catch the Seahawks and 49ers. Have Arizona and St. Louis closed the gap on what might be the NFL’s two best teams?

The Cardinals have been active in free agency, signing cornerback Antonio Cromartie, offensive tackle Jared Veldheer, tight end John Carlson, receiver/kick returner Ted Ginn, running back Jonathan Dwyer and offensive lineman Ted Larsen.

Clearly, the competition in this division keeps getting better.

The four writers who cover the division for ESPN.com’s NFL Nation -- Terry Blount in Seattle, Bill Williamson in San Francisco, Josh Weinfuss in Arizona and Nick Wagoner in St. Louis -- take a look at where things stand in the NFC West on four key topics. We also polled our Twitter followers to find how they viewed the issues.

First Down

The Cardinals have made significant moves in free agency. The Rams, aside from keeping Rodger Saffold, have mostly stood pat. Which is closer to the playoffs?


Terry Blount: This is a no-brainer for me. The Cardinals are a team on the rise with one of the NFL's best coaches in Bruce Arians. He took a 5-11 team and transformed it to 10-6 in one season. He was 9-3 at Indianapolis in 2012 while filling in for Chuck Pagano. Arizona was 7-2 in its last nine games and won three of the last four, with the only loss being 23-20 to the 49ers in the season finale. The Cardinals could become a serious challenger to the two-team stronghold of Seattle and San Francisco. However, I do believe the Rams will have a winning season if they can hold their own in the division games.

Nick Wagoner: It's hard to evaluate this without seeing what happens in the draft, especially with the Rams having two premium picks. Even then it would be unfair to judge right away. Still, I have to go with the Cardinals. They were trending up at the end of the season and patched a big hole with offensive tackle Jared Veldheer. Losing Karlos Dansby was a blow, but adding cornerback Antonio Cromartie to a talented stable at the position makes them better. The Rams, meanwhile, are clearly counting on a whole lot of in-house improvement and a big draft. Keeping Saffold was important (and lucky), but it seems risky to pin all hopes on a leap to the playoffs on a group of young players all making a jump at the same time.

Josh Weinfuss: Arizona is the easy answer, and that's not because I cover them. The Cardinals were 10-6 last season and the first team kept out of the postseason. All the Cardinals have done this offseason is fix deficiencies and plug holes. Their offensive line got markedly better with the addition of left tackle Jared Veldheer. Their wide receiver corps and kick return game were solidified with Ted Ginn, and they now have one of the best cornerback tandems in the league with Antonio Cromartie coming on board. General manager Steve Keim looked at what went wrong in 2013 and went to work on fixes. It should put the Cardinals over the playoff hump.

Bill Williamson: It has to be Arizona. The Cardinals were so close to making the playoffs last season. They would have likely been dangerous in the postseason too. I like the way this franchise is shaping up. It seems like it is well run and well coached. The roster is also getting deep. Carson Palmer will have to be replaced sooner or later, but the Cardinals are on to something. The Rams certainly have some nice pieces and are probably the best fourth-place team in the NFL, but they aren't close to matching what Arizona has going for it.


Second Down

The Seahawks and 49ers played for the NFC title in January. Any reason to believe either won't return to the postseason?


Blount: They were the two best teams in the NFL last season, and there's no legitimate reason to think they won't be among the best in 2014. Seattle has lost 10 players who were on the Super Bowl roster, but other than wide receiver Golden Tate, none of them were on the team's priority list to keep. The 49ers move into a shiny new stadium. The only question for San Francisco is the precarious relationship between coach Jim Harbaugh and team executives. Who knows what the future holds there, but it shouldn't matter on game day.

Wagoner: Aside from some debilitating injuries, it's hard to see how either team has taken a major step back. The Seahawks have lost some good players in free agency, but even those players seemingly already had replacements in place. Nobody does a better job of developing talent than Seattle. The Seahawks still have holes to patch on the offensive line and losing receiver Golden Tate is a blow, so there could be some hope the offense will regress. But the defense makes it all go, and it doesn't look like it's going to lose any of its most prized components. As for the Niners, they are the more likely of the two to take a step back, but it's hard to see them taking enough of one to fall out of the postseason. For most of their key free-agent losses they were able to quickly come up with a replacement as good or better than the player lost, and retaining Anquan Boldin says they are looking to make another run at the Super Bowl. Plus, they will have a fully healthy Michael Crabtree ready for the season. Until proven otherwise, these two teams remain the class of the NFC and probably the NFL.

Weinfuss: The only reason either of them won't make the playoffs in 2014 is because the Cardinals or Rams will take their place. The gap between the top and bottom of the NFC West has closed significantly this offseason, making the West much like the Southeastern Conference in college football; everybody will beat up on each other. It's likely the West, if it's anything like last season, can see three teams in the playoffs -- its champion and the two wild cards. If one of the teams between Seattle and San Francisco were not to make it, it's tough, but I think Seattle might slip. The Seahawks lost a significant part of their defensive line and will be going through a Super Bowl hangover. That's risky to deal with and still make the playoffs. On the other hand, San Francisco will be hungry from losing to Seattle in the NFC Championship Game.

Williamson: I believe these are the two best teams in the NFL. So it's difficult to fathom that either team won't find its way into the playoffs, barring major injuries. Arizona, though, could create an issue for the Seahawks and 49ers. The Cardinals are going to win a lot of games, so both Seattle and San Francisco have to be careful or things could get tricky. In the end, I can see all three teams making the playoffs. This is the reason this division is so intriguing and so fun: Every game is critical. There is just not much room for error. Look at the 49ers last year. They went 12-4, but a 1-2 start hamstrung them. They could never fully recover despite having a great overall regular season. The same intensity will be a factor in 2014 in the NFC West.


Third Down

Will Rams quarterback Sam Bradford come back strong from an ACL injury, and what effect will he have on St. Louis having its coveted breakthrough year?


Blount: I think Bradford will be fine as far as the ACL goes, but this is a make-or-break year for him in my view. Bradford was playing pretty well before his injury last year, but the verdict still is out whether he can be an elite quarterback. He enters this season with the best supporting cast he's ever had, but playing in this division with teams that emphasize physical defensive play makes it difficult to show improvement.

Wagoner: All indications from the Rams are that Bradford's rehab is coming along well and he's on schedule to make his return in plenty of time for the start of the regular season. He apparently had a clean tear of the ACL, but he has been rehabbing for a handful of months and should resume throwing soon. Bradford's healthy return means everything to the Rams' chances in 2014. Believe it or not, this is his fifth season in the NFL and, much like the team, this is the time to make some noise. The Rams attempted to open up the offense in the first quarter of 2013 with Bradford to miserable results. They switched to a more run-oriented attack in Week 5 and the offense performed better. Bradford also played better as the run game opened up play-action opportunities in the passing game. It will be interesting to see if the Rams choose to go a bit more balanced with Bradford at the controls or if they continue at the same run-heavy pace they played with backup Kellen Clemens. Either way, Bradford's contract has two years left on it. If he wants a lucrative extension, this is the time to prove he's worth it.

Weinfuss: Short answer, yes, Bradford will come back strong. Just look at how he started in 2013. He was on pace for a massive year statistically before he got hurt. If he can pick up where he left off, Bradford will return with a bang and show he's still one of the better quarterbacks in the league. As we've seen, a top-tier quarterback can be the difference between sitting idle in the standings and having a breakthrough year. With the talent that surrounds the Rams, with tight end Jared Cook, running back Zac Stacy and wide receivers Tavon Austin, Chris Givens and Austin Pettis, among others, Bradford may singlehandedly help close the gap between the Rams and the top of the NFC West.

Williamson: I have to be honest: I'm not a big Sam Bradford guy. I think he's just OK. Just OK doesn't cut it in this division, especially considering the defenses he has to play six times a season in the NFC West. He's serviceable, but he's not the answer. Given the state of this division, I cannot envision a scenario where Bradford is the reason the Rams become the class of the NFC West. I think they can get by with Bradford for the short term, but the Rams are going to have to start thinking about the future at this position much earlier than expected when Bradford was the No. 1 overall pick of the 2010 draft.


Fourth Down

If you had to start a team with either Seahawks QB Russell Wilson or 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick, whom would you choose?


Blount: You must be kidding. Give me Wilson every time, every day in every situation. Yes, Kaepernick is 5 inches taller than Wilson. Is there really anyone left who thinks Wilson's lack of height matters? Wilson also is at his best in pressure situations. He lives for it. And he is a more polished person on the field, and off it, than Kaepernick. That's not an observation. It's a fact. But this isn't a rip on Kaepernick. You would be hard-pressed to find any 25-year-old as polished as Wilson. The 49ers can win a Super Bowl with Kaepernick, and probably will soon. But if I'm starting a team, whether it is in football or almost any other life endeavor, I'll take Wilson without a doubt.

Wagoner: Wilson. For those of us covering other teams in the division, it's hard not to admire what he brings to the table. He presents himself as the consummate professional, and even opponents praise him for his work habits, intelligence and ability. He's already got the Super Bowl ring, and it's easy to see how he could add a few more. He's not all the way there in terms of his potential either, and it's probably safe to assume he's just going to keep getting better as his career goes along. That's nothing against Kaepernick, who is a unique talent in his own right, but there aren't many young quarterbacks in the league worth choosing over Wilson.

Weinfuss: Russell Wilson would be my pick, mainly because of his poise and maturity behind center. Colin Kaepernick is undoubtedly talented, but I get the sense he still has a lot of growing to do as a quarterback. He's tough to bring down, especially in the open field, but when he's pressured in the pocket, Kaepernick seems to panic and I wouldn't want that in a quarterback. I also think Wilson, despite his physical stature, is built to last. He's heady enough to stay out of harm's way, and his poise in the huddle will go a long way in leading a team.

Williamson: I'd take Kaepernick. I know it's a tough sell right now, since Wilson's team has beaten Kaepernick and the 49ers three of the past four times they've met, including the NFC title game, and the fact that Wilson has won a Super Bowl. I respect the value of Super Bowl wins and believe quarterback is the most critical position in sports. I'm sure I will smell like a homer with the Kaepernick pick. But moving forward, I just think Kaepernick has a higher ceiling. I think he can take over games more than Wilson can at a higher rate. Players built like Kaepernick and as athletic as Kaepernick just don't exist. He is special. He works extremely hard at his craft and is well coached. I'd take him, and I wouldn't look back. This isn't a knock on Wilson. He is proven and is going to be great. But if I'm starting a team, I'm taking Kaepernick, and I bet more general managers would agree than would disagree.

 

NFL Power Rankings: How they voted

September, 11, 2012
9/11/12
12:00
PM ET
The San Francisco 49ers opened Alex Smith's rookie season dead last in ESPN's 2005 NFL Power Rankings.

Seven years later, the 49ers have emerged from Week 1 with two first-place votes from our five panelists -- nearly enough to overtake New England for the top spot.

There was a tie at the top and the Patriots prevailed on the fourth and final tiebreaker, previous week's ranking. The teams had not played head to head. They had the same 1-0 record. Both won last week.

John Clayton, Jamison Hensley and Ashley Fox listed the Patriots atop their ballots. Dan Graziano and I moved up the 49ers from fourth to first following San Francisco's 30-22 victory over the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.

Clayton moved up the 49ers from fourth to second, leaving New England at No. 1.

Hensley moved the 49ers from ninth to second. He dropped the Packers from first to fourth. He bumped the Patriots from second to first.

Fox moved up the 49ers three spots to No. 2. She dropped the New York Giants from first to fifth. She moved the Patriots up one spot into first on her ballot.

"I gave serious consideration to having the Niners leapfrog the Patriots," Fox said. "They looked like the most complete team in Week 1. But ultimately, I kept New England higher because I know what I'm getting with their offense. Does that make me an Alex Smith non-believer? I don't think so, but I do want to see more from him and the San Francisco offense."

Graziano saw the 49ers frequently last season while covering the NFC East. Why did he rank them first?

"I thought they deserved the top spot for now," he said, "based on last year's performance, which included a tough playoff win and an OT playoff loss, plus the way they looked IN Green Bay against the team I had No. 1 last week, plus where they were already ranked, plus the disappointing openers by the Giants and Eagles."

The 49ers haven't held the top spot in our rankings since at least 2002, the earliest year for which we track results. What's the hurry?

The 49ers are home against Detroit in Week 2. The Patriots are home against Arizona.

And now, a closer look at the rankings for this week:

Falling (13): Seattle Seahawks (-6), Philadelphia Eagles (-5), New Orleans Saints (-5), Buffalo Bills (-5), Green Bay Packers (-4), New York Giants (-4), Tennessee Titans (-4), Pittsburgh Steelers (-3), Miami Dolphins (-3), Cincinnati Bengals (-2), Kansas City Chiefs (-2), Detroit Lions (-1), Carolina Panthers (-1).

Rising (16): Washington Redskins (+9), Atlanta Falcons (+4), Denver Broncos (+4), Dallas Cowboys (+4), New York Jets (+4), Tampa Bay Bucs (+4), Baltimore Ravens (+3), Arizona Cardinals (+3), San Francisco 49ers (+2), Minnesota Vikings (+2), New England Patriots (+1), Houston Texans (+1), Chicago Bears (+1), San Diego Chargers (+1), Oakland Raiders (+1), St. Louis Rams (+1).

Unchanged (3): Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, Indianapolis Colts.

Don't scratch that head yet: Teams rise and fall in relation to other teams, not just in relation to their own performances. For example, the Cardinals dropped one spot in the rankings despite ranking higher on all five ballots. The Redskins and Jets leapfrogged them.

Deadlocked: We broke three ties this week. New England prevailed over San Francisco at No. 1. Cincinnati edged Kansas City at No. 18. Tennessee emerged over Carolina and Buffalo in a three-way tie at No. 22.

Like minds: The 49ers were first or second on every ballot. Two spots separated high and low votes for the Patriots, Texans, Saints, Jets and Colts.

Agree to disagree: Five teams generated disparities of seven spots between high and low votes.

A look at the teams generating high-low disparities of at least six spots in the rankings:
  • Panthers (7): Fox had them 20th, higher than any other voter ranked them. Graziano had them 27th, lower than any other voter had them.
  • Cardinals (7): Hensley 18th, Clayton 25th.
  • Chiefs (7): Graziano 17th, Hensley 24th.
  • Cowboys (7): Hensley sixth, Fox 13th.
  • Giants (7): Graziano and Fox fifth, Sando and Clayton 12th.
  • Rams (6): Graziano 23rd, Hensley 29th.
  • Seahawks (6): Sando 22nd, Graziano 28th.
  • Raiders (6): Hensley 21st, Fox 27th.
  • Chargers (6): Fox 10th, Clayton 16th.
  • Eagles (6): Clayton eighth, Fox 14th.
  • Falcons (6): Clayton fifth, Hensley 11th.
Power Rankings histories: These colorful layered graphs show where each NFL team has ranked every week since the 2002 season.

Ranking the divisions: Teams from the NFC East averaged a league-high 11.0 ranking, up from 11.5 last week and well ahead of the runner-up NFC North (13.3).

Our divisional bloggers on the panel -- Graziano (NFC East), Hensley (AFC North) and me (NFC West) -- ranked the divisions we cover as high or higher than other voters ranked them. Are we right?

A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least four spots since last week:
  • Sando: Giants (-9), Seahawks (-8), Bills (-6), Eagles (-6), Titans (-4), Jets (+4), Falcons (+6), Cowboys (+6), Redskins (+9).
  • Clayton: Seahawks (-10), Giants (-6), Eagles (-5), Bills (-4), Saints (-4), Packers (-4), Ravens (+4), Vikings (+4), Falcons (+5), Buccaneers (+5), Broncos (+8), Redskins (+9).
  • Graziano: Eagles (-6), Panthers (-5), Chiefs (-5), Saints (-5), Seahawks (-5), Dolphins (-4), Buccaneers (+4), Cowboys (+5), Broncos (+6), Rams (+6), Redskins (+6).
  • Hensley: Bengals (-9), Titans (-8), Saints (-6), Steelers (-6), Bills (-4), Giants (-4), Falcons (+4), Broncos (+4), 49ers (+7), Redskins (+11).
  • Fox: Eagles (-5), Steelers (-5), Panthers (-4), Giants (-4), Jets (+6), Redskins (+8).
For download: An Excel file -- available here -- showing how each voter voted this week and in past weeks.

The file includes a "powerflaws" sheet pointing out potential flaws in voters' thinking by showing how many higher-ranked opponents each team defeated this season.

For example, the Cowboys rank lower than the Giants even after defeating them. No other team ranks lower than a team it has defeated. That will change as the season progresses. As much as voters might want to honor head-to-head results, the best team on a given day isn't always the best team overall. A Cardinals upset over the Patriots wouldn't vault Arizona into the No. 1 spot, for example.

A quick primer on the "powerflaws" sheet:
  • Column Y features team rankings.
  • Column Z shows how many times a team has defeated higher-ranked teams.
  • Change the rankings in Column Y as you see fit.
  • Re-sort Column Y in ascending order (1 to 32) using the standard Excel pull-down menu atop the column.
  • The information in Column Z, which reflects potential ranking errors, will change (with the adjusted total highlighted in yellow atop the column).
  • The lower the figure in that yellow box, the fewer conflicts.

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