NFC West: Andy Lee

News that the San Francisco 49ers reached agreement on a new contract for punter Andy Lee came Tuesday after CEO Jed York offered an autographed football to the first person able to guess which acclaimed Niner had a new deal.

Linebacker NaVorro Bowman would have been another logical candidate for a new deal among the five All-Pro players York offered as candidates. Patrick Willis (signed through 2016) and Justin Smith (2013) have already signed big-money deals. Bowman and kicker David Akers are signed through 2013.

Lee was the one All-Pro player on the 49ers without a deal past 2012. He set NFL single-season records since at least 1976 for gross (50.9 yards) and net (44.0) punting averages. His 54.2-yard net average at home against Seattle was the second-highest for a game since at least 1976, the first year such stats were tracked officially (minimum four punts). His 59.6-yard gross average for that game was the third-highest.

The 49ers could have let Lee's contract expire and then named him their franchise player at a relatively low cost. Getting a deal done with him shows good faith from the organization. It also makes available the tag for another player, although no obvious candidates come to mind. Naming Dashon Goldson as a franchise player for a second time would be one option, although at an inflated price.

The new contract should make Lee the highest-paid punter in the NFL, or close to it. He has earned that distinction while performing so ably despite playing home games outdoors.

No word yet on which person won the autographed football promised by York.

Around the NFC West: Pro Bowl moves

January, 24, 2012
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The NFC would have a hard time fielding a Pro Bowl secondary without its Western division.

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com notes that the NFL has added Seattle's Kam Chancellor and Brandon Browner to the NFC squad after the San Francisco 49ers' Dashon Goldson and Carlos Rogers withdrew from the game, citing injuries. Chancellor and Browner were alternates. Arizona's Adrian Wilson is also one of the safeties, as is Seattle's Earl Thomas. This means three-fourths of the Seahawks' secondary is in the Pro Bowl even though arguably the team's best corner, Richard Sherman, did not make it. Noted: Goldson and Rogers both have expiring contracts. Playing in the Pro Bowl would have meant spending the week hanging out with Green Bay's coaching staff. The Packers haven't been big spenders in free agency, but the Pro Bowl is one of the few places rules allow players from one team to hang out with coaches from another.

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com says the 49ers' Brian Jennings has been added to the NFC roster as a "need" player. Jennings is arguably the best long-snapper in the NFL. Maiocco: "Jennings, a 12-year veteran, will make his second career appearance in the Pro Bowl. He becomes the ninth 49ers player to be selected to play in this year's game, which is takes place Sunday in Honolulu. The eight 49ers players previously selected to the NFC roster are defensive backs Dashon Goldson and Carlos Rogers, defensive lineman Justin Smith, linebacker Patrick Willis, running back Frank Gore, tackle Joe Staley, kicker David Akers and punter Andy Lee."

Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News says the 49ers' need for wide receiver help is glaring after Michael Crabtree's single 3-yard reception accounted for all catches by San Francisco wideouts in the NFC title game. Kawakami: "The Giants’ three wide receivers combined to catch 16 passes for 214 yards and a touchdown Sunday, helping counterbalance the 49ers’ huge advantages in almost all other areas. It took two botched punt returns by Kyle Williams to set up the Giants for their game-deciding scores, but they would have been nowhere near the 49ers without their wide receivers. So as the 49ers hurtle into their offseason, upgrading their receiving corps has to be their central focus."

Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle did not notice the Giants going out of their way to inflict a concussion upon Williams.

Lowell Cohn of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat says Jim Harbaugh's refusal to discuss his feelings smacks of emotional immaturity.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic offers thoughts on the Cardinals' chances for landing Peyton Manning, should the Colts part with the future Hall of Fame quarterback. Somers: "Throwing to Larry Fitzgerald has to be an attractive prospect. With Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, the Cardinals have two talented young running backs. There are questions on the offensive line, however. The Cardinals' defense was stout over the last half of the season. Under Ken Whisenhunt, the Cardinals have proven they are willing to throw the ball and to mold their offense around the strengths of an older quarterback." Noted: Manning has never needed a strong offensive line. He has long proven how much quarterback play matters for avoiding sacks.

Also from Somers: Jerry Sullivan was briefly a candidate to rejoin the Cardinals. Noted: Seems like Bruce Arians would be a natural fit in Arizona after the Steelers decided against offering a new contract to him.

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com provides a timeline for scheduled bonus payments to Manning and the Cardinals' Kevin Kolb. Manning is scheduled to receive $28 million from the Colts on March 8. Kolb is scheduled to receive $7 million from the Cardinals on March 17. Urban also notes that Hue Jackson could be interviewing with the Cardinals, per Charley Casserly. Noted: With free agency beginning March 13, the gap between bonus payments to Manning and Kolb would give the Cardinals time to explore their options with Manning, should the Colts decline to pay the bonus.

Also from Urban: Calais Campbell would not complain if the Cardinals named him their franchise player.

The Cardinals' Beanie Wells suggests he's undergoing surgery, presumably on the knee that bothered him this past season. Noted: Ryan Williams is also coming off surgery.

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch updates Rams coaching moves after the team reached agreement with Dave McGinnis to join the staff as assistant head coach. Thomas: "Several other staff additions appear to be in the works but have not been made official, including Paul Boudreau as offensive line coach, Mike Waufle as defensive line coach, Rob Boras as tight ends coach and Tim Walton for what could be a job as assistant defensive coordinator/passing game."
SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- The NFL's Harbaugh brothers faced fateful fourth-down coaching decisions during conference championship games Sunday.

Neither decision worked out well, but statistical analysis from ESPN's analytics team favored Baltimore's John Harbaugh over San Francisco's Jim Harbaugh when it came to playing the percentages.

John Harbaugh went for it on fourth-and-6 from the New England 33-yard line with 2:53 left in the fourth quarter of a game the Patriots led, 23-20. Jim Harbaugh opted to punt on fourth-and-1 from his own 31-yard line in overtime. Update: I initially listed the yard line incorrectly on the 49ers' fourth-and-1.

I'll focus on Jim Harbaugh's decision for our purposes.

The win-probability tool ESPN has developed takes into account how decisions in similar situations have affected game outcomes in the past. Comparing the expected fourth-and-1 conversion rate to the expected resulting field position following a punt can produce percentage gains or losses in win probability.

To be fair, the 49ers could have made different assumptions based on things they knew at the time. Football is not a game of blackjack, where the right decision is mathematically demonstrable for every hand. How a coach feels about a certain situation might correctly override what the percentages say in certain situations.

The point here is to consider the options and learn more about the process, not to say Jim Harbaugh definitely erred.

Albert Larcada of ESPN's analytics team calculated the percentages this way:
  • Going for it. If San Francisco converted with a 1-yard play, its win probability would have been 69.1 percent. If it failed to convert, its win probability would have been 20.9 percent. Since 2001, teams going for it on fourth-and-1 pick up the first down 64.7 percent of the time. Going for it would have carried a win probability of 52.1 percent.
  • Punting. On the season, San Francisco punter Andy Lee had an average net punt of 44 yards. Using that number, the Giants would be expected to have first-and-10 from their own 25-yard line following the punt, producing a win probability of 48.9 percent.

As Larcada notes, the Atlanta Falcons' faced a similar decision back in November.

For the 49ers, the difference between 52.1 percent and 48.9 percent win probability seems insignificant, particularly if the 49ers thought their chances for converting were lower.

The Giants' defense had stopped teams six times in 11 chances on fourth-and-1 plays this season, including five of six times since Week 12. The 49ers had converted twice in four chances on fourth-and-1 plays this season.

In this case, the 49ers knew their defense was playing more effectively in the second half. Pinning the Giants deep and playing for field position did carry appeal. But Lee's punt traveled 47 yards to the 22, and a 14-yard return gave the Giants possession at their own 36. When the 49ers did force a punt, their return specialist, Kyle Williams, lost a fumble.
This was indeed a special season for the San Francisco 49ers and, by extension, the NFC West overall.

The Associated Press All-Pro Team, announced Friday, includes five 49ers, a league high for any team. Arizona's Patrick Peterson made the team as the return specialist, joining the 49ers' David Akers and Andy Lee to give the NFC West all three specialists.

The 49ers' Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman made it as inside linebackers. Teammate Justin Smith made it as a defensive tackle. He also got votes at defensive end. Smith moves around the line, playing end in the base 3-4.

Aaron Rodgers won 47.5 out of 50 votes at quarterback, a strong indication Rodgers will emerge as the leader in MVP balloting. Those results have not yet been revealed, but they draw from the same group of voters.

The chart shows All-Pro counts by division.

Also making the team: fullback Vonta Leach, center Maurkice Pouncey, guard Carl Nicks, guard Jahri Evans, running back Maurice Jones-Drew, running back LeSean McCoy, tackle Joe Thomas, tackle Jason Peters, tight end Rob Gronkowski, receiver Wes Welker, receiver Calvin Johnson, cornerback Darrelle Revis, cornerback Charles Woodson, defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul, defensive end Jared Allen, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, linebacker Derrick Johnson, outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware safety Troy Polamalu and safety Eric Weddle.

2011 All-NFC West Specialists

January, 5, 2012
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A look at my all-NFC West picks for the 2011 season, concluding with the special teams:
  • This might go down as the most memorable NFC West season on special teams since divisional realignment. Records fell and players made dynamic, game-changing plays from beginning to end. The San Francisco 49ers led the NFL in field position. They succeeded on a fake field goal and a surprise onside kick. Only a replay challenge could stop the 49ers from executing another fake field goal.
  • The 49ers' Andy Lee was an easy choice at punter. He set an NFL record since at least 1976 for net average, according to Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information. Simon named Lee his punter of the year -- yes, he tracks such things -- and pointed out a few superlatives. Lee posted a 59.6-yard average in Week 1, third-best in league history. One of his final punts, a 64-yarder at St. Louis, was downed at the 1. Lee led the league in gross and net punting. Lee finished first when Simon tested formulas weighting various averages with inside-the-20 percentages, fair catches and touchbacks, plus punts returned for touchdowns.
  • Lee's teammate, David Akers, was an easy choice at kicker. Akers set a league record for most field goals made in a season (44) and most kicking points (166). He was special-teams player of the month for December after scoring a league-high 58 points. Akers even threw a touchdown pass on a fake field goal in Week 17. His point total broke Jerry Rice's single-season franchise scoring record.
  • Arizona's Patrick Peterson beat out the 49ers' Ted Ginn Jr. as the return specialist, although I should probably break out separate categories for kickoffs and punts. I decided to stick with the format we've used in past seasons. Peterson scored four touchdowns on punt returns. The Cardinals went from 27th to second in punt return average. Ginn scored twice on returns in the season opener and played a key role in the 49ers' field-position dominance. Peterson's 99-yard return touchdown against St. Louis in overtime was the second-longest in league history.
  • Seattle's Red Bryant and Arizona's Calais Campbell deserve mention for blocking field-goal tries (Peterson blocked two). Bryant blocked two field-goal attempts and an extra-point attempt at Cleveland. Campbell blocked three field-goal tries for the Cardinals, including a critical one against St. Louis.
  • Several special-teams coverage players drew my attention. Seattle's Heath Farwell led the NFL in special-teams tackles (counting assists) despite playing only 11 games. He blocked a 49ers punt in Week 16, helping Seattle take a 17-16 lead in the final minutes. The 49ers' Blake Costanzo and C.J. Spillman made plays, as did the Cardinals' LaRod Stephens-Howling and O'Brien Schofield. I went with Farwell and Spillman. We could not go wrong with any of these guys. They all deserve recognition.
  • I don't have a category for a long-snapper, but if I did, it would be named after the 49ers' Brian Jennings. He is one of the best ever, according to guys I know who can tell the difference between a good snapper and a great one.

The chart breaks down all-division choices from 2008 -10, plus this season.

49ers regular-season wrap-up

January, 4, 2012
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» NFC Wrap-ups: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Arrow indicates direction team is trending:

Final Power Ranking: 3
Preseason Power Ranking: 26

Biggest surprise: Alex Smith threw only five interceptions while finishing the season with a 90.7 NFL passer rating, ninth-best in the league. In 2010, he threw twice as many picks in five fewer games. Smith also held up better physically than he had in past seasons. He made 16 starts without suffering much more than a mild concussion that forced him to miss no meaningful time. Smith, a participant in zero fourth-quarter comeback victories from 2008- 10, put his signature on five of them this season. That was tied for most in the league. Coach Jim Harbaugh pushed Smith for the Pro Bowl.

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Alex Smith
Joe Robbins/Getty ImagesIn 2011, San Francisco QB Alex Smith had his best season of his six-year pro career.
Biggest disappointment: Injuries to Josh Morgan, Ted Ginn Jr., Kyle Williams, Delanie Walker and the since-released Braylon Edwards have left the 49ers thin on pass catchers heading into the playoffs. The team will need more from Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree to compensate for what Morgan, Walker and Edwards would have provided at their best. Getting back Ginn and Williams also should help. Davis reemerged as a primary threat in recent weeks. He had 18 catches for 244 yards over the 49ers' final three regular-season games. That is the most productive three-game stretch of the season for Davis. Crabtree is also producing at a higher level lately. Still, this group could have been stronger.

Biggest need: Additional help in the secondary could make sense. The 49ers, despite ranking among the league leaders in most defensive categories, allowed 12 pass plays of at least 40 yards, tied for fifth-most in the league. Long pass plays were a factor in defeats to Dallas and Arizona. The 49ers will have to decide how much to pay cornerback Carlos Rogers and free safety Dashon Goldson. Both earned Pro Bowl honors. Neither has a contract for next season. It's unclear how aggressive the 49ers might be in retaining them. Chris Culliver, a third-round choice in 2011, had an interception and seven passes defensed as a rookie. He factors into the equation at corner.

Team MVP: Defensive end Justin Smith gets the call over inside linebacker Patrick Willis because Smith started every game and dominated. Smith can occupy two blockers and still get free to make a tackle. He's a threat to sack the quarterback. His presence was also a leading factor in setting up teammates. Rookie Aldon Smith had 14 sacks in part because Smith forced favorable matchups. A knee injury slowed Justin Smith during the final two games, but he fought through it and even sneaked back onto the field when the Rams were rallying in Week 17.

Special season: No team in the league could top the 49ers on special teams. San Francisco led the league in field position. Ginn averaged 27.6 yards per kickoff return and 12.3 yards per punt return, scoring two touchdowns in the opener. Kicker David Akers set a league record for made field goals. After the 49ers downed Andy Lee's 64-yard punt at the St. Louis 1-yard line in the fourth quarter Sunday, Lee emerged with the highest single-season net average (44.0) since at least 1976, according to Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information.

Another week, another special NFC honor

December, 28, 2011
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Add David Akers' name to the list of special-teams players of the week from the NFC West.

The NFL honored Akers with the NFC award this week after the San Francisco 49ers kicker made four field goals against Seattle, including the game winner, while setting a league record for successful attempts in a season.

This marks the third consecutive week an NFC West player has won the award. Akers follows 49ers punter Andy Lee and Seahawks receiver Doug Baldwin in winning it. Arizona's Patrick Peterson won it two weeks prior, giving the NFC West four of the past five winners.

There have been seven NFC West special-teams winners in 16 weeks: Ted Ginn Jr., Robert Quinn, Peterson (twice), Baldwin, Lee and Akers.

It was no surprise, then, when three-fourths of the NFC's special-teams Pro Bowl choices came from the West (Lee, Akers and Peterson).

Several NFC West players not appearing in the chart made sensational special-teams plays this season.

A few stand out in my mind:
  • Seattle's Red Bryant blocked two field-goal attempts and an extra-point try. Update: Make that three blocked field-goal attempts and a blocked extra-point try.
  • Arizona's Calais Campbell has blocked three field-goal attempts.
  • Seattle's Heath Farwell blocked a punt to set up the Seahawks' go-ahead touchdown Saturday.

There have been others, including when the 49ers executed a successful fake punt against Arizona, only to learn a whistle had blown the play dead.

NFC West Pro Bowl analysis

December, 27, 2011
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» NFC Pro Bowl: East | West | North | South » AFC Pro Bowl: East | West | North | South

Perfect sense: Larry Fitzgerald, Adrian Wilson, Andy Lee, David Akers, Justin Smith and Patrick Willis are past Pro Bowl selections enjoying strong seasons. Their selections made perfect sense. No St. Louis Rams made it. Steven Jackson was worthy of consideration, but the team's 2-13 record made his exclusion understandable.

Patrick Peterson's four touchdowns on punt returns made him an extremely worthy if somewhat surprising choice over Devin Hester, whose reputation figured to count for something.

It was good to see voters recognize the NFC West's talent on special teams and in the secondary. Wilson and Seattle's Earl Thomas are the starting safeties. Carlos Rogers is a starting corner, and Seattle's Brandon Browner, a first alternate, could very well join him in the game itself because at least one of the NFC starters, Charles Woodson, could be playing in the Super Bowl.

Made it on rep: From the NFC West? Are you kidding? This division usually fights for whatever it can get. Wilson made it on reputation last season, but he was very much deserving this time, even though it came at the expense of Seattle's Kam Chancellor, a first alternate. None of the players selected made it on rep, in my view.

We could debate the worthiness of a few, including 49ers free safety Dashon Goldson. But he didn't have much of a rep. He made big plays for a 12-3 team and got noticed despite some inconsistencies in his game. The 49ers' success cleared the way for Goldson and another first-timer, left tackle Joe Staley.

Frank Gore always deserves consideration, and his numbers say he did not make it strictly on reputation, but a case can be made that other backs were producing at a higher level more recently. Gore's dropped passes have been a problem as well.

Got robbed: Seattle's Marshawn Lynch, San Francisco's Aldon Smith, St. Louis' Chris Long and Arizona's Calais Campbell come to mind immediately.

Lynch has arguably run more impressively than any other back in the conference of late. He ended the 49ers' streaks without allowing a 100-yard rusher (36 games) or a rushing touchdown (15 games). Lynch was named a second alternate. He has a chance to earn a spot given that Matt Forte is injured and might not play in the game. I'm not sure which NFC back is first alternate, but Lynch would move up the list if Minnesota's injured Adrian Peterson held that distinction.

Aldon Smith has 14 sacks as a rookie, but he didn't make the Pro Bowl. In fact, Smith did not even show up on a list of 49ers alternates featuring NaVorro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks, Blake Costanzo, Vernon Davis, Ted Ginn Jr., Jonathan Goodwin, Mike Iupati, Ray McDonald, Bruce Miller and Donte Whitner.

Long has 13 sacks for a team that almost never faces favorable pass-rushing situations, but with multiple high-profile sack artists in the NFC, he did not make it. The Cardinals' Campbell gets overlooked playing defensive end in a 3-4 scheme, but he's been a dominant player. At least teammate Darnell Dockett was named an alternate.

Click here for the complete 2012 Pro Bowl roster.

Around the NFC West: 49ers' huge stakes

December, 26, 2011
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Week 16 brought great clarity to the NFL playoff situation in the NFC West.

The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals are out. The San Francisco 49ers are strong favorites to emerge as the second seed in the NFC. They can no longer challenge for the No. 1 seed after Green Bay defeated Chicago. But if New Orleans loses to Atlanta on Monday night, the 49ers will clinch the second seed -- and a first-round playoff bye -- without needing to beat St. Louis in Week 17.

Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats spells out the value of getting a first-round bye relative to reaching a Super Bowl. Burke: "The No. 1 seed has about six times the chance of a wild-card team to make it to the Super Bowl. The No. 2 seed has nearly five times the chance. These are enormous differences, and they’re due to seeding effects alone. Right now, the 49ers and Saints are jockeying for the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The loser of that battle will fall from a 29 percent shot to an 11 percent shot at making the Super Bowl." Noted: I think there's value in an unestablished team claiming a wild-card victory before taking on one of the higher-seeded teams. But the first-round bye removes all risk of defeat in the wild-card round. That's a huge payoff.

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee says the 49ers' Alex Smith was more than just a game manager during San Francisco's 19-17 victory over the Seahawks. Barrows: "With his 49ers reeling and the Seattle crowd roiling in the fourth quarter, the normally cautious quarterback reared back on second and 18 and heaved a 41-yard pass to Michael Crabtree, setting up a 39-yard David Akers field goal that gave San Francisco the lead."

Also from Barrows: An all-Harbaugh Super Bowl isn't so far-fetched.

Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle says the 49ers are running out of healthy pass-catchers. He also updates the 49ers' turnover numbers. Branch: "The 49ers haven’t committed a turnover in 18 straight quarters, a streak that dates back to an interception Smith threw late in the second quarter of a 16-6 loss to the Ravens on Nov. 24. Since that pick, Smith has thrown 129 passes without an interception and San Francisco, which leads the NFL with a plus-26 turnover differential, has forced 10 turnovers. Entering Saturday’s game, the Seahawks had forced 18 turnovers in their previous six games and had collected at least one turnover in every game since Week 4."

Howard Balzer of 101ESPN St. Louis captures what is wrong -- and also what is right -- with the 2-13 St. Louis Rams. Steven Jackson is the good. Coach Steve Spagnuolo: "On a level of admiration on a scale of 1 to 10, I’m at a 15. I don’t know how else to say it. He is a very passionate football player. He’s passionate about how he plays, the way he plays; he’s passionate about the team he plays for; he’s passionate about the guys he plays for. He’s been that way ever since I’ve gotten here. He hasn’t changed and I think people see that in the way he plays, and he was certainly that way today."

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch updates Jackson's contract situation: "With 32 yards rushing in the season finale Sunday, Jackson will reach half of a two-tiered trigger that could void the final two years of his contract. But he needs 198 yards receiving to reach the second part of the trigger — and that's not going to happen, unless Jackson has the receiving game of a lifetime. But even with all the losing, Jackson seemingly has no desire to play anywhere else."

Also from Thomas: Injuries at cornerback have led the Rams to use extra safeties in their nickel and dime packages.

Mike Salk of 710ESPN Seattle says Tarvaris Jackson has outperformed expectations, but isn't good enough for the Seahawks to take the next step. Salk: "It is OK to be a game manager. Alex Smith has won 12 games this year in that capacity and surely we know the stories of Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson and even a young Tom Brady winning Super Bowls. Game managers win by controlling the ball, understanding the importance of field position, and getting the ball in the hands of the playmakers. But they also have to lead important drives late in games because their teams typically haven't scored enough points to win it handily. Tarvaris Jackson has not done that this year. In limited opportunities, he has failed at that important skill. And I think it will be the reason his time in Seattle will end sooner rather than later." Noted: Jackson would be the ideal backup behind a front-line starter.

Brady Henderson of 710ESPN Seattle says Heath Farwell and the Seahawks exploited the 49ers' tendency to release into coverage early in blocking Andy Lee's fourth-quarter punt Saturday. Henderson: "Farwell had seen that reserve linebacker Blake Costanzo, who lines up as a left tackle on the punt unit, was often quick to disengage from his block and head down the field toward the returner, leaving an unobstructed path to the punter. Farwell, whose job on the punt return team is normally to slow the opposing team's tackle at the line of scrimmage, took advantage of that tendency." Noted: I spoke with Costanzo about the play and he said that's exactly what happened. He took full responsibility. The play proved costly at the time, but the 49ers now have time to adjust before such a problem arises in a playoff game.

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times notes that the Seahawks were only 4-4 at home this season. Noted: Blowing a 17-7 lead to lose at home against the Washington Redskins stands out as the most lamentable home defeat for Seattle.

Also from O'Neil: thoughts on a 49ers assistant coach shouting, "Merry Christmas!" while leaving the Seahawks' press box.

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com says the Cardinals' propensity for slow starts on offense caught up to them during a 23-16 defeat at Cincinnati. Urban: "With Kevin Kolb still suffering from concussion symptoms -- his availability for the finale seems in doubt at this point -- John Skelton got the start. Skelton was terrible for three quarters as the Cardinals failed to cross midfield and trailed, 23-0. Then he turned into Super Skelton in the fourth quarter -- as usual -- and nearly shocked everyone. Just 8-of-19 for 93 yards, with three interceptions and five sacks, through the first three quarters, (coach Ken) Whisenhunt admitted he considered benching Skelton for Rich Bartel. But Skelton completed 15-of-25 passes for 204 yards and two touchdowns in the final quarter." Noted: Skelton has proven he's worth keeping around for developmental purposes, but not yet ready to start. That is OK. He was a fifth-round pick only last year. The fact that he won a roster spot, kept that spot, won a few starts and even briefly led some to think he should remain in the lineup means he has already outperformed expectations.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic says Skelton's accuracy must improve.

Dan Bickley of the Arizona Republic blames the Cardinals' defeat more on Skelton than on Early Doucet's stumble late in the game.

Around the West: On Pettis' suspension

December, 22, 2011
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News that rookie receiver Austin Pettis had been suspended for using performance-enhancing drugs delivered more bad news for the St. Louis Rams' 2011 draft class.

With Pettis out through the first two games in 2011, the Rams have only two of their own rookie draft choice on their 53-man roster.

First-round choice Robert Quinn and second-rounder Lance Kendricks remain active for the Rams from a group that included Pettis (suspended), Greg Salas (injured reserve), Jermale Hines (released, now with Indianapolis), Mikhail Baker (released), Jabara Williams (released, now with Chicago) and Jonathan Nelson (released, now with Carolina).

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch offered details on what the suspension means for Pettis. Thomas: "Pettis is eligible to participate in all offseason and preseason practices and games following the conclusion of this season. But regardless of whether there's a head-coaching change or not, missing the first two contests of the 2012 season will put him behind the other wideouts on the depth chart and in his quest for playing time."

Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch said Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo and general manager Billy Devaney do not deserve much sympathy. Miklasz: "In a league of parity and close games, the Rams have been outscored 1,110 to 630 overall in Spags' time as head coach, with an average loss of 16 points. This team isn't competitive. Here's the odd thing: The more the Rams lose, the more we seem inclined to make excuses on their behalf or attempt to rationalize their failures. We've become enablers. And I'm not bashing the fans; the media is at fault as much as anyone. ... This isn't high school football. Spagnuolo was hired to win football games. If a coach can't win games, he's fired. He could be a saint or a sinner, but he needs to be a winner. Besides, Spagnuolo has fired trainers, an equipment manager and other employees at Rams Park. A big part of his job is terminating players. It's nothing personal. So why are we so sensitive about Spagnuolo's future?"

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com says Paul McQuistan's use across the Seahawks' offensive line tells a story. Farnsworth: "The trials and tribulations of the Seahawks’ injury-ravaged offensive line can he traced by following McQuistan’s progression from being a backup; to starting at left guard; to returning to his backup role; to starting at right guard; to starting at left tackle. McQuistan stepped in at left guard because Robert Gallery was out with a groin injury. He moved in at right guard after rookie John Moffitt went down with a season-ending knee injury. He slid over to left tackle when Russell Okung needed season-ending surgery to repair a torn pectoral."

Also from Farnsworth: Tarvaris Jackson has stepped up his game in second halves recently.

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times says injuries haven't stopped the Seahawks' offensive line from succeeding.

Eric D. Williams of the Tacoma News Tribune checks in with 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, who laments not drafting receiver Doug Baldwin. Baldwin and cornerback Richard Sherman are two Seattle players with roots on Harbaugh's former Stanford teams. Harbaugh: "Yeah, I’m kicking myself for not doing that. And at the same time I’m really, really happy for Doug. I’ve watched him this whole year whenever we’re watching crossover tape. Or I’ve sometimes put on the tape, just to watch him and Richard. And I’ve seen him really grow the whole season."

Also from Williams: Marshawn Lynch has become the Seahawks' face.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic updates the Cardinals' quarterback situation heading into Week 16. Sounds like John Skelton might get another start over Kevin Kolb, who remains limited following a concussion. Somers: "On Monday, Whisenhunt said the fairest way to prepare one of the quarterbacks was to give him most of the work in practice. Judging by Wednesday's events, that appears to be Skelton. Kolb was listed as limited in practice, while Skelton is healthy. The Cardinals are 5-1 in games Skelton has either started or taken the majority of the snaps. Skelton has a tendency to start slowly and finish strongly. In four of Skelton's past eight games, the Cardinals have made game-winning drives in the fourth quarter."

Also from Somers, with Jim Gintonio: Deuce Lutui professes to be a changed man after nearly landing with the Cincinnati Bengals during the offseason. Lutui: "Where I was and where I'm at now, I could have seen it as frustration or I could have seen it as a problem or stated it as an opportunity. I've taken it as an opportunity. I've taken all the help that I can get. I've stuck in with John Lott (strength and conditioning coach), really a credit to him in helping me get in the best shape that I can. ... I also worked with my head, off the field, and went in with a mental coach. I've got a mental coach that's helped me elevate my game and alter the way I think for the next offseason, and so I've put a lot in my mind and body this year.""

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com has this to say about the quarterback situation in Arizona: "The way the defense has been performing for the Cards would help any quarterback. Skelton has had plenty of rough patches, but Whisenhunt acknowledged he’d rather have a quarterback that can finish than one who starts fast and fades. Skelton, whose beginnings to games have been almost as unimpressive as his finishes impressive, certainly falls into that category."

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee says Braylon Edwards is anxious to get back on the field for the 49ers. Tight end Vernon Davis tweeted words of support to Edwards, who has struggled and was not active Monday night. Davis: "Just the look on his face is he wants to be out there bad. But I don't know the reason he's not. That's up to the coaches and him and Ferg (head trainer Jeff Ferguson) and the trainers. ... Just saying kind words like that keeps a guy like that level-headed and keeps him hungry and keeps him ready to go at any time. And I just felt that upon my spirit to lay that out there. And he is -- he's a guy that I'm grateful to have on the team. He's a true playmaker, and if given the opportunity I'm sure he'll take advantage of it."

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com has this to say about Justin Smith in his defensive player review from Week 15: "Started at right defensive end and had an outstanding all-around game. He had three tackles, a quarterback hurry and a fumble recovery, but he also set up Aldon Smith for a couple of sacks ... Left guard Trai Essex held him for a 10-yard penalty to wipe out a 6-yard gain in the second quarter ... Fought through left side of Steelers line and Rashard Mendenhall to pressure Ben Roethlisberger into second-quarter incompletion. ... Recovered fourth-quarter fumble that directly led to 49ers touchdown ... Generously gave himself up to tie up Essex so that Aldon Smith could record a 6-yard sack ... Justin Smith did the same thing on the next series, resulting in another Aldon Smith sack."

Also from Maiocco: an offensive player review. On Frank Gore: "Dropped a pass out of the backfield on the first drive ... Missed Cameron Heyward in blitz pickup as Smith was rushed into incompletion on first drive ... Dropped another pass on third-and-7, though it was unlikely he would've picked up first down with defensive lineman Brett Keisel standing between him and the sticks ... Called for chop block on defensive lineman Ziggy Hood, as center Jonathan Goodwin had his left hand on Hood as Gore went low to block Hood. Did not play the final nine minutes after scoring on 5-yard TD."

Grant Cohn of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat passes along Steve Young's thoughts on Aldon Smith, expressed recently on KNBR radio. Young compared Smith to a young Charles Haley. Young: "I’ve got to be honest with you. I’ve got to apologize to Aldon Smith because I hadn’t really seen him in person all year. And I apologize, because I had no idea how great he really was until I saw him in person. And that’s what matters. Hearing about it, watching it on TV and then seeing in person -- all different visceral relationships you have with something, and it matters. So around the league when everyone watched the 49ers kind of beat up on Ben Roethlisberger, don’t let him score, call a couple big touchdown drives, and they hear about the defense, they’ve watched Aldon Smith play and (laughs) whoever doesn’t think these guys are for real is kidding themselves."

Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News examines Andy Lee's contributions to the 49ers. Lee was the NFC's player of the week for special teams.

2012 Pro Bowl fan balloting: Final ranks

December, 21, 2011
12/21/11
6:08
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A few changes for NFC West players stood out in final fan voting for the 2012 Pro Bowl.

The San Francisco 49ers' Justin Smith moved up one spot to No. 1 among players listed as defensive tackles. Two other 49ers, guard Mike Iupati and strong safety Donte Whitner, each fell one place. Iupati is fourth. Whitner is fifth. Teammates Ray McDonald and NaVorro Bowman, each ranked fifth at their positions last time, did not crack the top five in final fan balloting.

The Arizona Cardinals' Larry Fitzgerald moved up one spot to third among wide receivers.

Players and coaches vote this week. The NFL announces results Dec. 27.

The first chart shows total votes received for players ranking among the top five at their positions in final fan balloting, by division. The second chart shows NFC West players ranked among the top five and how their rankings changed since our last update one week ago.

Among players not listed, the Cardinals' Adrian Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks' Marshawn Lynch stand out as deserving of consideration. The impact Arizona's Patrick Peterson has made as a punt returner also stands out. There are others deserving consideration as well.

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Around the NFC West: 49ers vs. Seahawks

December, 20, 2011
12/20/11
8:56
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Optimism is sweeping through San Francisco, Seattle and Arizona after a strong week of performances from these NFC West rivals.

There's one preferred way to determine which teams have the most to feel good about: battle it out on the field.

It'll happen Saturday when the 11-3 49ers, fresh off a 20-3 pounding of Pittsburgh on Monday night, visit the surging Seattle Seahawks on Christmas Eve. The Seahawks and Cardinals, a combined 11-3 since Week 9, then close out the regular season with a game at University of Phoenix Stadium.

Let the optimism flow.

Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic says the Cardinals' ability to repeatedly come from behind to win reflects positively on coach Ken Whisenhunt. McManaman: "That's what makes Whisenhunt the proudest. He has witnessed a team grow before his eyes and fail to quit. The Cardinals have trailed in the second half of each of their seven victories and in six of those they were behind in the fourth quarter. But each time, they won. That tells Whisenhunt his team has arrived, that it's 'learned' how to win even when things look bleak, like it did when the Browns had a 17-7 lead after three quarters."

Paola Boivin of the Arizona Republic would not protest if the Cardinals stuck with John Skelton at quarterback for at least another week. The Cardinals are 5-1 this season when Skelton plays.

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times says Tarvaris Jackson can be more than simply a game manager for the Seahawks. O'Neil: "His second-half turnaround was among the more impressive, more important things that happened for Seattle on Sunday. The Bears were so focused upon stopping Marshawn Lynch that they were bringing one of their safeties up into the box. That was a surprise given Chicago's devotion to the Cover 2 defense. That put the onus on Jackson to make something happen. He did, most notably on his 43-yard pass to Ben Obomanu against man-to-man coverage, setting up the game-tying touchdown. He completed 15 of 19 passes in the second half for 176 yards."

Dave Boling of the Tacoma News Tribune points to several Seattle players, including Marshawn Lynch, as worthy of Pro Bowl consideration. Boling: "Lynch’s violent rushing style has reversed team fortunes and earned highlight-reel exposure across the country. A full season of performance at the level he’s reached in this second half, and Lynch might threaten 2,000 yards. Brandon Browner is another member of the Sea-hawks who plays with awe-inspiring force -- sometimes even within the rules. Browner’s reputation for penalties won’t help him right now, but he has six interceptions and set a team record for return yardage (220 yards for an average of 36.7 per pick)."

Ray Ratto of CSNBayArea.com says the 49ers affirmed their best qualities against the Steelers. Ratto: "So what did this game provide, then, in terms of useful long-term wisdom? Nothing that wasn’t already known. People still can’t run on them, rarely force turnovers by them, and get tortured by the two kickers, Andy Lee and David Akers, just enough to make it hard to overcome one’s own mistakes. Maybe a healthy Roethlisberger doesn’t throw that ball into coverage and Rogers’ arms. Maybe he does, only with a bit more zip. Or maybe the result is exactly the same. It matters not, except in some parallel universe. But the larger truth was that the 49ers won in 49er fashion, without glitz or flash. Even without lights."

Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News says the touchdown San Francisco scored to extend a 6-3 lead revealed much about the 49ers. Kawakami: "So the Steelers’ field goal put the onus back on Alex Smith and the offense, with only the whole sports world watching and a big percentage of Candlestick roaring for the Steelers. Could the 49ers capitalize on this moment? Would the offense scatter like pins under pressure from the Pittsburgh defense? Could the 49ers finally produce in the Red Zone? Would they be able to pull this all off before another blackout struck? Turns out, the 49ers were ready for this. More than ready."

Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch leads off the Rams-related material for Tuesday morning. This would mark a departure from the optimistic line of thinking in the division, of course, for the Rams have fallen to 2-12. Miklasz: "Rams offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels continues to confuse me. When A.J. Feeley took over for an injured Sam Bradford earlier this season, McDaniels scaled down the passing offense. He did it for Kellen Clemens, too. As he should have. It made sense. It would have also made sense to simplify the offense for Bradford. After all, Bradford is in his second NFL season. This is a new offense for him. He didn't have the usual offseason regimen to absorb it. Bradford clearly struggled to get comfortable in this offense -- especially when he was asked many times to set up on deep drops behind a weak offensive line to throw downfield to receivers that can't get open. Bradford is a rhythm passer. He's at his best on quick reads and throws. McDaniels and the Rams didn't adjust their offense to fit the QB skills."

Nick Wagoner of stlouisrams.com checks in with Rams cornerback Ron Bartell, who is recovering from a neck injury and doing better.
Vernon DavisJason O. Watson/US PresswireVernon Davis' third quarter score was the 49ers' first red zone touchdown in three games.
SAN FRANCISCO -- Tight end Vernon Davis sold the run block, disengaged from outside linebacker LaMarr Woodley and broke into the clear for a touchdown catch so easy, he could have made it in the dark.

By then, city engineers had restored power to Candlestick Park, allowing all to see a performance complete enough to restore the San Francisco 49ers as worthy contenders in the NFC. Davis' 1-yard scoring reception, the first of two 49ers touchdowns in the red zone Monday night, carried them to a 20-3 victory over the defending AFC Champion Pittsburgh Steelers.

"This one was big," Davis said, and he was right.

The 49ers improved to 11-3, remaining on course to claim the NFC's second seed and a first-round playoff bye. They beat an NFL power with a 10-3 record coming into the game, suppressing doubts that lingered following two recent defeats. They solved long-running problems in the red zone, scoring touchdowns twice in three chances. And they allowed zero sacks after taking 18 in their previous three games.

"It showed the world that we're serious and we can play big games on the national stage," Davis said.

Steelers fans are entitled to break out the asterisks. They can point to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's obvious limitations related to an ankle injury. They can point to James Harrison's suspension and Woodley's bum hamstring. They can even question some of the officiating calls that worked against Pittsburgh in this game.

None of that matters to the 49ers. For them, this game showed the path for San Francisco to keep pace with higher-scoring competitors in the NFC. The 49ers in their current state are never going to win games the way the Green Bay Packers and the New Orleans Saints typically win them. But if they can start turning field goals into touchdowns, as they did Monday night, their chances for beating championship-caliber teams in the playoffs will increase exponentially.

That is especially true against any pass-oriented teams venturing into Candlestick Park in mid-January, when the slick playing surface, shifting winds and potential precipitation can turn an already ornery 49ers defense into something even greater.

"Everybody has to take us seriously, man," defensive end Ray McDonald said. "We're not the old Niners any more."

The new Niners won this game against the Steelers their way, and without apologies. They dominated field position, holding a 21-yard advantage over Pittsburgh in average drive start. They forced four more turnovers, giving them a plus-25 differential, best in the NFL. They went a 15th consecutive game without allowing a rushing touchdown. They beat a playoff-caliber opponent by 17 points while gaining only 287 yards.

The 49ers out-Steelered the Steelers, and Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin knew it.

"I think we need to acknowledge that was 49er football tonight," Tomlin said. "We played the game on their terms in a manner of which they play when they play winning football. They created turnovers, they got us with a few concept plays, they controlled the ball offensively."

The power outages threatened to disrupt both teams. But just as coach Jim Harbaugh embraced the lockout and the challenges it presented a first-year head coach, his team handled the disruptions without trouble. Harbaugh did not hesitate when asked what it was like in the locker room before the game.

"It was dark," he said, to thunderous laughter.

Harbaugh and staff had the right answers during the game, too. They found ways to free Davis for key receptions after Pittsburgh initially covered the Pro Bowl tight end effectively. They also came out ahead in five key areas discussed here heading into the game:
  • Pass protection. The 49ers had taken more sacks in their three defeats (20) than in their 10 victories (19). They countered the Steelers' pass-rush with quick passes to the perimeter. Their offensive line was on point with its assignments. Quarterback Alex Smith moved effectively, at one point scrambling for 14 yards. Pittsburgh sent five or more pass-rushers on 21 of 32 dropbacks, according to ESPN Stats & Information, and still the Steelers could not sack Smith.
  • Roethlisberger's mobility. The ankle injury limited Roethlisberger's scrambling ability, but the Steelers' quarterback had been much more effective throwing from the pocket this season (8.5 yards per attempt, compared to 5.8 outside the pocket). The Steelers predictably had Roethlisberger in the shotgun formation more frequently, hoping he could set up quickly and deliver the ball. But as the game wore on and San Francisco pulled ahead, the Steelers had no answer for Aldon Smith. The 49ers' rookie outside linebacker finished the game with 2.5 sacks and seven quarterback hits.
  • Mike Wallace's deep speed. The Steelers came close to connecting on a couple long passes that would have changed the game early. Roethlisberger did wind up with 330 yards, completing passes for 39 and 36 (twice) yards. Wallace averaged only 13.2 yards per reception, however. That was a manageable number for the 49ers.
  • Ted Ginn Jr. and special teams. Ginn, the 49ers' return specialist, did not return after suffering an ankle injury on the kickoff return opening the second half. Punter Andy Lee posted a 49.2-yard net average while pinning the Steelers inside their 20-yard line four times in six chances. One punt-and-penalty combination had Pittsburgh beginning at its own 16-yard line after the 49ers punted from their own 12. The Steelers' average drive start, the 15, was the worst for any team in the NFL this season, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
  • Smith in the red zone. This area remains a work in progress for the 49ers. Two red zone touchdowns against the Steelers were positive steps, not a long-term solution. Continued progress in that area will be critical for the 49ers to beat the best teams. "If we can get aggressive in the red zone, we will be unstoppable," Davis said.

The 49ers are not there yet, but this was undeniably a step forward for them. They weren't afraid to say it, either. Afterward, Harbaugh promoted Smith for the Pro Bowl. Davis and teammates declared their legitimacy. They welcomed skeptics.

"We played good football tonight," Harbaugh said. "I'd really like to focus on that -- not the lights, not the locker room before the game, not the contingencies. ... I'm proud to be a part of that team."

Eighteen San Francisco 49ers rank among the top five at their positions in fan balloting for the Pro Bowl.

What is this, 1994?

It's feeling that way with the 49ers and Pittsburgh Steelers taking 10-3 records into their Monday night game in Week 15.

These championship-laden franchises previously have not had double-digit victory totals at the same time since 2002. They did so previously during the 1990s and briefly during the 1980s, but rarely have both been at their very best simultaneously.

The fan balloting totals reflect each team's success this season.

Unbeaten Green Bay leads the NFL with 21 players ranking among the top five at their positions. The 49ers are second with 18, followed by New England (15), Baltimore (13) and Pittsburgh (12).

A quick run through which NFC West players rank among the top five at their positions:

Arizona Cardinals

First: none

Second: none

Third: none

Fourth: receiver Larry Fitzgerald

Fifth: none

San Francisco 49ers

First: inside linebacker Patrick Willis, punters Andy Lee

Second: center Jonathan Goodwin, cornerback Carlos Rogers, defensive tackle Justin Smith (he plays defensive end), free safety Dashon Goldson, fullback Bruce Miller, kicker David Akers, special teamer Blake Costanzo

Third: guard Mike Iupati, kick returner Ted Ginn Jr.

Fourth: running back Frank Gore, strong safeties Donte Whitner, tackle Joe Staley

Fifth: defensive tackle Ray McDonald, inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman, tackle Anthony Davis, tight end Vernon Davis

Seattle Seahawks

First: none

Second: none

Third: punter Jon Ryan, strong safety Kam Chancellor

Fourth: free safety Earl Thomas

Fifth: none

St. Louis Rams

First: none

Second: none

Third: none

Fourth: defensive end Chris Long

Fifth: none

The chart breaks down the counts for NFC teams. Fan voting continues online through the 49ers' game Monday night. Players and coaches vote Dec. 21-22. Results are announced Dec. 27.
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Nater from Iowa City asked about the San Francisco 49ers' high rankings in field position this season. He wondered how much of it had to do with punter Andy Lee, the team's turnover avoidance, etc.

Mike Sando: The 49ers have helped their field position in many ways this season. Football Outsiders tracks field position across a long list of categories. I went through the 49ers' rankings from 2010 and 2011 and put together a chart showing the gains they've made in the "net" rankings listed at the bottom of those above-linked pages. These are striking gains.

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