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Danario Alexander has proved he can be a big-play receiver for the St. Louis Rams when healthy enough to get on the field.

Alexander played 41 percent of the offensive snaps last season, up from 19 percent as a rookie in 2010. He owns a healthy 16-yard average on his 46 receptions over the past two seasons. But he missed a five-game stretch in the middle of the season and is having some issues this offseason.

With bigger numbers at the position this offseason, Alexander could have a harder time earning a roster spot.

Tony Softli of 101ESPN St. Louis offers thoughts on Alexander as the Rams conduct organized team activities. Softli: "His multiple knee surgeries are well documented, but now soft-tissue injuries are creeping back into the picture -- and the Rams just started the offseason program. In order to impress the new regime of head coach Jeff Fisher, general manager Les Snead and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, the former Missouri Tiger must stay healthy, compete and put his full set of talents on display." Noted: This is a tough situation for Alexander. He has fought through serious injuries, enduring pain and disappointment. He is only 23 years old, but chronic injuries can worsen over time.

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee says Aldon Smith denied any intent to injure Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger at Candlestick Park last season. Smith: "Our goal was to win the game. We don't go out and talk about hurting other players, their ankles or injuries or any of that. We were going out to win the game. The quarterback, he controls the game. So if he got hit, it happens."

Also from Barrows: 49ers rookie Trenton Robinson comes to the team with something to prove. Robinson lacks ideal height for a safety, but he's relatively rangy.

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com says the 49ers have lots of fallback options behind starting fullback Bruce Miller. Maiocco: "Technically, there's only one player listed behind Miller on the depth chart: undrafted rookie Cameron Bell, a fullback from Northern Illinois. But, unofficially, there are a lot of players on both sides of the ball who can lend assistance."

Also from Maiocco: Brandon Jacobs and Mario Manningham skipped the Giants' Super Bowl ring ceremony to practice with the 49ers. Jacobs: "I think winning a championship is important, not many people have one and not many people have had a chance to play in a Super Bowl. I respect that, but right now, I'm working towards the same goal with a new team. I think my goal here is pretty clear on what I'm trying to achieve as an individual player and as a team."

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com says Doug Baldwin was the sixth player to lead the team in receptions during his first year with the team. Steve Largent, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, John Carlson, Mike Williams and Derrick Mayes were the others.

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times says Baldwin is one of eight wide receivers on the roster who caught at least one pass for the team last season. O'Neil: "The exact pecking order of those receivers, though, is going to be something that will be sorted out in one of the most wide open competitions over the course of this offseason and into training camp. Can Sidney Rice stay healthy? Can Mike Williams rebound to the form he showed in 2011? Can Golden Tate continue the progress he showed in the second half of last season."

Eric D. Williams of the Tacoma News Tribune says Seahawks safety Earl Thomas downplays the individual honors he's won to this point in his career. Thomas: "I don’t know what everybody else thinks, but in my eyes, if you’re a great player, the personal accolades are going to come, but you just let them fall and play ball. I’ve been playing ball since I was little, and I love doing it. If people like the way I play, that’s fine. If they don’t, that’s fine, too. I just like to play ball."

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic notes that Nate Potter is the fifth of seven Cardinals draft choices to sign with the team.

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com says the team will open training camp July 24, an early start reflecting the Cardinals' participation in the Hall of Fame game against New Orleans on Aug. 5. Urban: "The Cardinals could have gone to camp 15 days prior to that -- three days before they will end up going -- but coach Ken Whisenhunt had said the Cards wouldn’t go that early."

A few thoughts wrapping up Ben Roethlisberger's comments regarding the San Francisco 49ers possibly targeting his ankle, following my "NFL Live" conversation with Trey Wingo:

• Roethlisberger would be in better position to know than any of us watching the game from safer vantage points. Watching every play on video in no way replicates what Roethlisberger experienced staring down Justin Smith, Aldon Smith and the San Francisco defense.
• Nothing stood out as unusual when I re-watched every play, including some key plays from the coaches' tape featuring wider camera angles.
• The 49ers sent four or fewer pass-rushers 80 percent of the time, consistent with their averages for the season, according to Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Information. They did not appear to be going out of their way to pressure Roethlisberger. They trusted their four-man rush.
• The Steelers used shotgun formations 77 percent of the time, up from 35 percent earlier in the season. That took pressure off Roethlisberger's injured ankle. It also gave Roethlisberger a better chance to protect himself.
• The comments Roethlisberger made were pretty harmless. The current climate regarding player safety threatens to distort. Of course the 49ers wanted to test Roethlisberger's injured ankle. That doesn't necessarily mean they did anything outside the rules.

Case closed? I don't see much more ground to cover from this game, at least.

The word "concussion" came up zero times during the most recent NFC West chat. There was one "bounty" question, but I didn't get around to answering it during the chat.

"Do you think Kurt Warner would have come back for another year if he wouldn't have been smashed by the Saints after his interception in Bounty Gate?" Tony from Richmond, Calif., wanted to know.

Warner was headed toward retirement regardless, in my view. The Cardinals might have gotten him to reconsider had they offered a dramatic in crease in pay, but that is purely speculative. Warner was ready for retirement.

Full chat transcript here. Highlights below:

SeniorSwick from Montclair, N.J. asks whether any NFL teams take as many chances as the Seahawks when it comes to creativity, scheme and personnel. He points to the team's decision to convert new draft choice J.R. Sweezy from defense to offense.

Mike Sando: The 49ers converted Bruce Miller from college defensive end to fullback and got good play from him last season. Miller had not played offense since high school. Sweezy, like Miller, was a later-round pick. Teams have greater freedom to experiment with later-round choices. The key is to be creative without over-thinking things. More broadly, the concern in building around specialized or somewhat unique players -- think Red Bryant for Seattle -- is that specialized players can be tough to replace if injured. However, that is where staff flexibility can make up the difference. The Seahawks seem to have a good defensive staff and approach. Another potential concern relative to Sweezy is what the move represents: a clear push by an assistant coach to get a player he liked. Tom Cable also drove the selection of James Carpenter a year ago. Drafting players to fit the staff is important, but we should also watch to see if assistants have too much sway.

Ken from Anaheim, Calif., seeks a heads up on any Rams rookies who might become starters. All the early draft choices should be considered. I focused on undrafted players when putting together an answer.

Mike Sando: Watch the linebackers in general, Ken. That was a position of great need that the Rams didn't address sufficiently in the draft. As a result, the better free-agent linebackers were eager to consider the Rams; those players knew their chances would be better in St. Louis than elsewhere. Derrick Choice from Stephen F. Austin, Alex Hoffman-Ellis from Washington State and Noah Keller from Ohio State were the undrafted free-agent linebackers St. Louis signed recently. Seventh-round pick Aaron Brown is also new to the team.

Brandon Cards Fan from Arizona asks whether the offensive linemen the Cardinals drafted from the fourth through seventh rounds might see the starting rotation or play extensively as rookies.

Mike Sando: Yes, I think fourth-round choice Bobby Massie figures to get some starts at right tackle this season -- either out of necessity or because he wins the job. Jeremy Bridges would be the veteran fallback at right tackle. Moving right guard Adam Snyder into that spot would be another option, but that could weaken two positions. I could see Bridges opening the season as the starter at right tackle, with Massie taking over during the season.

The fun continues. I'm tentatively scheduled to join NFL Live some time after 3:30 p.m. ET for additional thoughts on Ben Roethlisberger's comments regarding the 49ers.

Ben Roethlisberger did not accuse the San Francisco 49ers of outright dirty play against him in Week 15 last season.

The Pittsburgh Steelers' quarterback did drop a hint Wednesday when Dan Patrick asked him to recall the most recent time an opponent took shots at his head, knees or ankles.

"Um, wow, that's tough," Roethlisberger told Patrick, according to Matt Maiocco. "I don't really complain about that stuff, either. But I think when we played San Fran, I felt like there were some things going on, some extra ...

"Now, obviously, I did have the ankle [injury] and I was playing, so there was kind of a bull's-eye on there anyway. But for the most part, guys play tough and you go into a game expecting it. I expect to be tougher than them."

Lest this little implication get out of hand unnecessarily, I went back and watched every Steelers offensive play from that game. The stats crew credited the 49ers with eight quarterback hits. Most were straightforward. Defenders were not twisting Roethlisberger's lower body, rolling over onto his sore ankle or stepping on him blatantly.

Stretches lasting 15-plus plays passed without the 49ers making any contact with Roethlisberger. They did get pressure on him late in the game. Aldon Smith did hit Roethlisberger in the lower body at one point, but the hit appeared routine.

Smith and NaVorro Bowman had free shots on Roethlisberger late in the game. They did not exploit those opportunities at additional expense to Roethlisberger. Bowman specifically had an opportunity to fall on Roethlisberger on the Steelers' final play, but he did not.

Roethlisberger would know better than most whether an opponent was going out of its way to hurt him. Nothing jumped out as suspicious when I watched the game, however.

How to value Alex Smith's performance stood among the most debated subjects on the NFC West blog last season.

Smith ranked ninth in NFL passer rating among a broader group featuring Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers.

The 49ers' coach, Jim Harbaugh, called Smith "elite" and promoted him for the Pro Bowl. But when it came time for the 49ers to pay Smith this offseason, they gave him a three-year deal with an easy out for the team after one season. The contract bore little resemblance to the ones those other quarterbacks have commanded.

Total QBR, the metric ESPN's Analytics Team developed to more fully assess how quarterbacks contributed to winning, supported the 49ers' valuation.

Smith, despite quite a few high single-game QBR scores when playing at home, ranked 22nd among qualifying quarterbacks overall with a 46.4 score out of 100 (50 is average). His share of blame for the sacks he took hurt his team more than the sacks any other qualifying player took, a huge drain on his score.

The weekly in-season "QBR Ranks" posts on this blog provided the basis for discussions on NFC West quarterback play. We had some healthy debates over the usefulness of QBR and how it could be improved. Some of those discussions go on internally, too.

Jeff Bennett, Dean Oliver and the Analytics Team are making a couple tweaks to the formula.

The changes will lessen the blame quarterbacks receive when they fumble during a sack, shifting more of the blame to offensive lines. Also, kneeldowns and spikes will no longer factor; those plays had very little impact on QBR over the season, but they wielded more influence on single-game scores.

Smith fumbled seven times and lost two of them. His fumbles were not particularly costly overall, allowing Smith to rank ninth in fewest expected points lost to fumbles. Brees was first. Tim Tebow was last.

These QBR tweaks were relatively minor. The Analytics Team discussed other possibilities at the most recent Sloan Sports Conference.

"One of the things that does sit a little bit on my mind is that we fundamentally have to do it on a per-play basis because we're going to be looking at how well did they play on third down vs. second down vs. five or more rushers and these are great," Oliver said recently at the conference. "One of the things I wonder about is whether that is the right basis for evaluating a quarterback overall."

The current system assigns greater value to scoring drives requiring fewer plays, all else equal, on the theory that scoring quickly would be more impressive than if finding the end zone took longer.

"We talked about some sort of QBR per drive, because if you go 80 yards in three plays vs. 80 yards in 12 plays, why should the three-play drive be four times better than the 12-play drive?" Oliver said. "In many cases, the 12-play drive is better. I don't know how we do that, but it is something we have talked about.

"For most of the work that we do, that doesn't affect anything, but I think it's a great conceptual question that hopefully we can figure out in the near future."

I found QBR most useful when it diverged significantly from NFL passer rating, as it did notably for Smith. Using the formula to declare one quarterback absolutely better than another made little sense. But if we could find out why QBR diverged from NFL passer rating or our perceptions in general, that could be of value.

For Smith, taking sacks spelled a large part of the discrepancy. Some made the case that Smith's offensive line was disproportionately responsible for many of those sacks. I thought Smith was content taking sacks to avoid interceptions, a tradeoff that helped explain the gap between NFL passer rating, which does not account for sacks, and QBR, which does.

My current take: Offensive lines are more to blame for some sacks, perhaps explaining why a QBR score suffered unexpectedly for a single game. Overall, though, the blame distribution evens out, creating more reliable results for a full season.

This discussion isn't for everyone. Apologies to those who don't care for analytics as they relate to football. My hope is to find more relevant applications.

The Seattle Seahawks owned the NFC West for years because their owner, Paul Allen, was so clearly superior to his peers in the division.

It was Allen who pushed through a stadium referendum precipitating his purchase of the team in the late 1990s. It was Allen's ownership that enabled the team to hire Mike Holmgren in 1999, another watershed moment for the franchise.

Those two owner-driven events set up the team for seven division titles during a 12-year period, including five in a row beginning in 2003.

Visions of Allen's Seahawks squirming while Peyton Manning visited the Arizona Cardinals over the weekend might not mean much if Manning signs outside the NFC West or agrees to visit Seattle after all. But with Arizona holding a clear edge over the Seahawks at this point in the process, the shrinking ownership gap in the division is worth our attention.

Allen hasn't necessarily slipped even though his fortune, once estimated to exceed $30 billion, has reportedly shrunk to less than half that amount. He remains the wealthiest NFL owner by a wide margin. He helped finance a state-of-the-art waterfront facility that opened in 2008. He gives football decision makers wide latitude and ample resources.

But with the Cardinals' Michael Bidwill and the San Francisco 49ers' Jed York securing new stadiums and winning division titles recently, the Seahawks' competitors have gained ground. Stan Kroenke's ascent in St. Louis has brightened the Rams' outlook as well.

For Arizona, getting Manning to visit was nice. Getting him to sign with the team would more emphatically validate the the Cardinals' progress as an organization.

Bidwill, like York, has a familial reputation to live down.

"(Bidwill) is hugely aware of our fan base and how his dad is viewed," a team source told ESPN's Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter over the weekend. "He came to work with this team to get the stadium built. It took him a long time to get that done, but he did. He is a driven young owner that wants to totally change this franchise's image."

Winning back-to-back division titles while making a Super Bowl appearance affirmed Bidwill's long-held stance that stadium revenue would change how the team could operate. But the Cardinals' 13-19 record over the past two seasons has lent credence to the idea that the team basically lucked into Kurt Warner's career revival.

Beating out John Elway and others for Manning would be another game-changer, comparable to the day Seattle landed Holmgren and, to an extent, when the 49ers secured Jim Harbaugh. Holmgren and Harbaugh were the hottest coaching candidates at the time. Manning, though coming off neck surgeries that might still threaten his career, outranks both in NFL history.

The Cardinals need him. They bet big on Kevin Kolb last offseason, and are running a fat deficit on the investment, with few promising signs. John Clayton's recent report about the team losing confidence in Kolb sounded ominous. Coach Ken Whisenhunt might still need to win the bet on Kolb, but the cost of losing it would disappear if Manning signed with the team.

Finding a quarterback requires taking chances. Manning would be the safest bet in NFL history without the neck surgeries. He still appears to be a safer gamble than putting down another $7 million to continue the relationship with Kolb, a payment that comes due at week's end. Paying Kolb in the absence of Manning would not necessarily prevent John Skelton from winning the starting job.

A year ago, the Kolb experiment gave the Cardinals an opportunity to find out whether Whisenhunt could identify and develop quarterbacks. To what degree had he shaped Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh and, later, Warner in Arizona? That question becomes far less relevant if the Cardinals can close a deal with Manning.

Bidwill's father made a run at Joe Montana in 1993. This time, the Cardinals appear to have a legitimate chance. Times have changed, but by how much? Manning's decision will provide one measure.

The San Francisco 49ers aren't the only NFC West team needing help at wide receiver. The St. Louis Rams stand ahead of San Francisco in that line, particularly if Brandon Lloyd departs in free agency.

Where the 49ers pick in the 2012 draft's first round -- 30th overall, compared to second for the Rams -- led longtime NFL analyst Pat Kirwan, now with CBS, to list San Francisco among three potential trade suitors for Pittsburgh Steelers restricted free agent Mike Wallace.

One of our blog regulars, Johnny Alcatraz, pointed me toward Kirwan's piece in the comments section of our first item Monday. As Kirwan notes, the new labor agreement eliminated high tenders for restricted free agents. Teams signing away restricted free agents from rival teams now would risk only a first-round draft choice, down from first- and third-round choices under the previous labor agreement.

Wallace, with three years of NFL experience, is scheduled to become a restricted free agent. The Steelers could match any offers to him or command a 2012 first-round pick from any team signing him.

The way Kirwan sees things, the 49ers and other receiver-needy teams holding low first-round choices might value Wallace enough to part with their choices near the bottom of the round. The Steelers, averse to overpaying and facing those aforementioned cap concerns, might prefer a first-round choice to a cap-averse contract.

Such a scenario, though unlikely to play out, makes for a worthwhile mental exercise. Among the considerations:

• The Steelers and NFL teams in general want to keep their best young players. Wallace is 26 years old and has averaged 1,068 yards per season and 18.7 yards per reception. Subtracting Wallace would diminish the Steelers' return on their primary investment, Ben Roethlisberger.
• Without the high restricted tender, teams could be tempted to use the recently discounted franchise tag for players such as Wallace. That is an option for the Steelers.
• Making a splashy move for another team's player goes against the way San Francisco has operated recently. Think about it this way: Prying away Wallace from the Steelers would require parting with draft compensation and valuing Wallace more than Pittsburgh values him. That is an unlikely double. The 49ers have taken care in determining which players to value the most, focusing on their own. That will presumably continue.
• The 49ers might not agree with outside assessments of their roster or team needs. A rookie contract dispute, injuries, coaching changes and a lockout have prevented Michael Crabtree from experiencing a normal NFL offseason. That should finally change in 2012. Crabtree generally played well during the regular season. Vernon Davis came on strong as a receiver late in the season, once he had time to digest the playbook. The 49ers might be more apt to supplement their receiving ranks, as opposed to overhauling it from the top down.

The AFC North blog's Jamison Hensley addressed potential interest in Wallace from Baltimore and Cincinnati. Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome used the phrase "double-whammy" when describing the draft compensation and inflated contract required to land a prized restricted free agent. The Bengals already have A.J. Green, making Wallace seem more like a luxury than a player Cincinnati needs to have.

Wallace would look good in any NFC West uniform. Imagine the damage he could do opposite Larry Fitzgerald or Sidney Rice, even amid quarterback concerns. The Rams obviously need weapons for Sam Bradford as well.

The Steelers will ultimately control whether Wallace leaves. They have every reason to keep him, in my view.

Todd Haley's hiring as the Pittsburgh Steelers' offensive coordinator comes after the Arizona Cardinals decided against offering an equivalent role to him.

My initial thought: Haley's pull-no-punches approach to motivation worked well when he was with the Cardinals previously, but how might Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger respond? After all, Roethlisberger was reportedly upset when management forced out previous coordinator Bruce Arians.

The dynamics could be complicated going into this relationship.

We should remember, however, that Haley and former Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner became very close during their years together in Arizona. Also, the well-publicized blowups between Haley and former Cardinals receiver Anquan Boldin did not necessarily reflect an unhealthy relationship. They were overblown in some cases.

Haley showed no fear in confronting players when he thought it would get the most from him. Will he take that approach with Roethlisberger? The quarterback position is different from others. Back in early 2009, when the Cardinals were playing Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl, Haley had this to say about what he liked about Warner:

I think that No. 1, his preparation is second to none. I don't know who could prepare more than him. He's into it. He obviously has great ability to throw the football. I think if you had to say one thing that separates him, he’s got unbelievable vision and anticipation and he’s probably one of the better progression passers as far as getting through his complete read. That’s why a guy like Steve Breaston gets 1,000-yards out of nowhere, because of Kurt’s ability to find the open guy. He’s got a lot of great skills as a quarterback and he knows how to use them.

How Haley and Roethlisberger get along isn't a huge concern in the NFC West, obviously. The Cardinals' decision to move forward with Mike Miller as coordinator and receivers coach John McNulty as the likely quarterbacks coach carries more importance. And if that arrangement does not work out, Cardinals fans will wonder what might have been had Arizona made room for Haley in the role of coordinator.

There was never any evidence the New York Giants had taken cheap shots on San Francisco 49ers punt returner Kyle Williams during the NFC Championship Game.

There was only proof that some Giants players hoped to capitalize on Williams' history of concussions. Those hopes, expressed by Devin Thomas and Jacquian Williams, will not result in league discipline.

"Players are held accountable for their actions on the field," league spokesman Greg Aiello said. "There were no illegal hits to the head or neck area against Kyle Williams on Sunday. There was no conduct by the Giants of any kind that would suggest an effort to injure Kyle Williams in any way."

As for the fans threatening Williams following his pivotal fumble? Williams told ESPN Radio those threats were "shocking" even though he expected harsh criticism.

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com says the matter appears closed, with Aiello saying the league had no additional comment. Maiocco: "Coincidentally, 49ers co-owner John York is the chair of the NFL's newly formed Health and Safety Advisory Committee. New York Giants owner John Mara serves on the committee."

Also from Maiocco: thoughts on each of the 49ers' scheduled free agents. On Dashon Goldson: "The 49ers offered him a five-year contract last year. After he turned it down and the 49ers took the offer off the table, he returned to the 49ers on a one-year, $2 million contract. The 49ers might extend another five-year, $25 million contract. If that's not enough, they can keep him around with the franchise tag at one year, $6.2 million."

Taylor Price of 49ers.com checks in from the Pro Bowl.

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee offers 49ers notes, including one about Brad Seely's candidacy as Colts head coach.

Keith Goldner of Advanced NFL Stats says it's clear the 49ers should have accepted a penalty for running into the kicker, then gone for it on fourth-and-1. Instead, the 49ers declined the penalty, letting the Giants take over possession at their own 7.

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times puts into perspective the Seahawks' Pro Bowl haul. O'Neil: "In the previous two years, the Seahawks were the only team in the NFL that did not have a player either named to the Pro Bowl or chosen as an injury replacement. Seattle's five Pro Bowlers matches the franchise's fourth-largest contingent. Three of Seattle's four starters in the secondary will be appearing in the Pro Bowl, evidence of one of the biggest improvements in Seattle last season."

Brady Henderson of 710ESPN Seattle passes along thoughts from Brandon Browner, who spent four seasons in the CFL before Seattle gave him a chance this season. Browner on his tryout: "It was most definitely just to make the team. I told Coach [Pete] Carroll at my workout that I would really appreciate a shot -- a legitimate shot -- at making this team. A lot of guys get shots, but there are a lot of guys brought in [to be] camp bodies. I told him, 'You brought me in. I can do some things with this team.'"

Also from Henderson: Brock Huard and Kevin Calabro discuss whether the Seahawks should have interest in Peyton Manning.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic questions whether former Steelers offensive coordinator Bruce Arians would join the Cardinals as quarterbacks coach. Somers: "I'm hearing, however, that Arians isn't particularly anxious to become a position coach again. He's been a successful offensive coordinator, so you can't blame him for not wanting to take a step down. Arians was the Steelers receivers coach when Ken Whisenhunt was the offensive coordinator there. Arians replaced Whisenhunt and worked closely with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. If the Cardinals were to hire Arians, he could work with quarterbacks or receivers. If he took the receivers job, current receivers coach John McNulty could become quarterbacks coach. He worked with quarterbacks while at Rutgers."

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com confirms that Beanie Wells underwent knee surgery, performed by Dr. James Andrews.

Also from Urban: Patrick Peterson will play in the Pro Bowl as a return specialist. He'd like to go as a cornerback in the future.

Bryan Burwell of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch expects Steven Jackson to fit well in Brian Schottenheimer's offense. Jackson: "I have played against his teams a lot and they all come with that attitude and a certain level of play. They have that 'it.' It's hard to explain what that 'it' is to a ... fan. But it's just something about [the way they play] when they go between those lines. Coach Fisher's teams have a certain something that's hard to put a finger on. But I have to assume it's [his] leadership."

Matthew Hathaway of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch quotes a sports economist as saying the Edward Jones Dome likely would need $200 million to $300 million in upgrades to prevent the Rams from breaking their lease after the 2014 season. Hathaway: "The Dome was largely financed with $256 million in revenue bonds, and the repayment of that 30-year debt will be $720 million. Every year, Missouri spends $12 million to pay off the debt, and St. Louis and St. Louis County each pay $6 million annually. The county's portion is funded through a 3.5 percent hotel tax approved by voters in 1990. The lease calls for the Rams to stay at the Dome through 2025 -- but only if the stadium is first tier at two points: 2005 and 2015. The Rams waived the requirement the first time in exchange for $30 million in improvements. This time, there are a series of deadlines in 2012, starting with the CVC's mandate to deliver a plan by Feb. 1."

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Rams' new defensive coordinator, Gregg Williams, is not lacking for confidence. Williams: "What you'll see is that everywhere I've gone, I've been able to get a top five defense during the time I'm there. Anywhere from one to four, one to five, in all of the stops I've made. ... I get way too much credit for the X's and O's, but my specialty is handling people, especially difficult people."

Also from Thomas: Schottenheimer has streamlined his terminology.

More from Thomas: Rams owner Stan Kroenke has explored the possibility of bidding on the Los Angeles Dodgers. There are those words again: Los Angeles. Thomas: "NFL cross-ownership rules prevent an NFL owner from owning a majority interest in another pro franchise outside of his market, if that non-football franchise is in a city with an NFL team. L.A. does not have a pro football franchise and hasn't had one since 1994. It's also OK for Kroenke -- or any NFL owner -- to own two pro sports franchises in the same city. But the cross-ownership rules have been bent and modified over the years, to the point where some might say they're not really hard-and-fast rules."

The San Francisco 49ers defeated the previously 5-0 Detroit Lions on the road after losing a fumble on their first play and never forcing a turnover.

They ground out a 13-8 victory on the road against a rookie quarterback, Andy Dalton.

They won what turned into a 36-32 postseason shootout against the NFL's hottest quarterback, Drew Brees.

They came back from 20 points down in the second half to beat Philadelphia on the road. They ran away from previously 3-1 Tampa Bay to win a blowout, 48-3.

With the 49ers sitting one victory away from the Super Bowl, I went through their games looking for threads tying together their victories and defeats this season.

Turnovers are generally key for any team; the 49ers led the league in differential. But as the game against Detroit demonstrated, the 49ers could beat a good team on the road without prevailing in that pivotal category. That was one of six games this season the 49ers won after trailing in the fourth quarter.

A few things jumped out over the course of the season, counting playoffs:

• The 49ers gave up 20 sacks in their three defeats. That included nine at Baltimore, six against Dallas and five at Arizona. They allowed 28 sacks in their 14 victories.

2011 49ers Opponents: Yards/called pass

QB	Called Pass Avg.	49ers Result
Tony Romo	10.0	Lost
Michael Vick	8.6	Won
John Skelton	7.6	Split
Eli Manning	7.1	Won
Joe Flacco	7.0	Lost
B.Roethlisberger	6.5	Won
Kellen Clemens	6.2	Won
Colt McCoy	5.9	Won
Josh Freeman	5.2	Won
John Beck	5.1	Won
A.J. Feeley	4.8	Won
Andy Dalton	4.5	Won
Matt Stafford	4.4	Won
Tarvaris Jackson	4.0	Won 2





• Attacking the 49ers' pass defense is key. The 49ers' record was 0-2 when allowing more than 8.5 yards per pass attempt and 2-3 when allowing more than 6.6. They were 12-0 when allowing less than that. The 49ers were also 9-0 when collecting at least three sacks. They were 1-2 when opponents completed better than 65 percent of their pass attempts. The Giants' Eli Manning completed 65 percent. The 49ers batted down his final pass to help preserve their 27-20 victory.
• The chart ranks opposing quarterbacks by yards per play when dropping back to pass or scrambling. The quarterbacks ranking near the top generally defeated the 49ers or made them sweat out victories. Dallas connected on long pass plays late to beat San Francisco. Arizona had pass plays for 60, 53 and 46 yards during its victory over the 49ers. The chart shows only regular-season opponents, but the Saints' Drew Brees nearly beat the 49ers with 66- and 44-yard touchdown passes.
• Attacking the 49ers' run defense seems less critical. The 49ers were 12-0 when allowing more than 2.6 yards per rushing attempt. They were 2-3 when allowing less than that. Yes, you read that correctly. They even went 3-1 when allowing 25 or more rushing attempts. They were 11-1 when allowing more than 55 yards rushing, including 4-0 when they allowed more than 92.
• The 49ers were 3-2 when allowing more than 20 points, including 2-1 when they allowed 27 or more. They were 4-0 when allowing more than 20 first downs and 9-1 when allowing more than 16 of them. They were 10-1 when opponents ran at least 60 plays and 4-2 in the other games.
• Venue matters. Alex Smith has 15 touchdown passes, three interceptions and 17 sacks in nine home games. He has five touchdown passes, two interceptions and 31 sacks in eight road games.
• Vernon Davis matters. Davis has 67 receptions for 884 yards and eight touchdowns in the 49ers' 14 victories. He has seven receptions for 88 yards and no touchdowns in three defeats. He averages 2.1 times as many receptions for 2.2 times as many yards in the 49ers' victories.

Those are a few variables I noticed. There are quite a few others, surely. Which ones matter most in your view?

The San Francisco 49ers' fourth-quarter comeback victories at Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Detroit and Seattle obscured an important part of quarterback Alex Smith's game this season. He was actually much better at home.

That came into focus for an NFC West blog regular, Crimsoncrew, upon reading an earlier item about Smith and the New Orleans Saints' Drew Brees. Smith's NFL passer rating at home is 99.8 (82.7 road). His Total QBR, which also takes into account sacks and game situations, stands at 71.6 out of 100 -- a league-high 42.3 points higher than his 29.3 QBR on the road.

"Other than the Cowboys game in Week 2, which was still a decent QBR performance, Smith has been at or above Pro Bowl level in every home game," Crimsoncrew wrote. "While I'm still a bit skeptical of the mysterious formula that is the QBR, in Smith's case I absolutely believe it's more accurate than passer rating because of the number of sacks he takes rather than taking chances with the ball. Despite that, Smith has more than twice as many TDs (12 to 5), only one more INT (3 to 2), and takes less than half as many sacks (13 to 31) at home as he does on the road."

Crimsoncrew's comments initiated a call to John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information, who did the research appearing in the chart. I then asked Smith about the disparity during the 49ers' media availability session Tuesday.

"It's a great question," Smith said, unaware that Crimsoncrew was the source behind it. "Obviously, crowd noise plays into that, especially on third down, when you’re trying to throw the ball on the road. Anywhere you go, you're going to be dealing with crowd noise. So, at home, to be able to use the cadence and be able to communicate a little easier verbally, obviously helps. I think that might play into it."

The 49ers are home against New Orleans in the divisional playoffs Saturday. Thank you, Crimsoncrew, for advancing the conversation.

NFC South blogger Pat Yasinskas and I will be chatting soon for a piece sizing up the New Orleans Saints' and San Francisco 49ers' chances Saturday.

Of course, Pat will be the one reaching out as part of the long-established "gentleman's agreement" requiring bloggers covering lower-seeded teams to contact those for higher-seeded teams during the week leading up to a playoff matchup.

Each of us will be making a case for the teams from the divisions we cover. That's where you come in. How can the 49ers win this game?

I began throwing out a few notes on the subject during Twitter exchanges Saturday night. I'll revisit them here to get the conversation going:

• The Saints played 11 indoor games during the regular season, averaging 38 points per game in them. They averaged 23.8 in their last four outdoor games. Weather should not be a problem Saturday, but the grass at Candlestick Park can be slick anyway.
• The Saints' last two outdoor games included a 22-17 victory at Tennesse and a 26-20 defeat at Tampa Bay. The Titans were eighth in points allowed this season. The Bucs were 32nd.
• The 49ers have allowed 10 total points in their last three home games, although the opposing quarterbacks were limited (an injured Ben Roethlisberger, A.J. Feeley and John Skelton).
• The 49ers played four explosive quarterbacks. They beat Michael Vick and Matthew Stafford on the road. They lost to Tony Romo at home. They beat Eli Manning at home. The 49ers allowed 422.5 total yards per game against those quarterbacks' teams, compared to 270.1 yards per game against everyone else. But they still went 3-1.
• Granted, Frank Gore did not finish the season strong. The 49ers still had 178 yards rushing at Seattle in Week 16, with Kendall Hunter and Alex Smith contributing.
• The St. Louis Rams (this season) and 49ers (last season) are the last two teams to hold the Saints beneath 300 yards.

I'm not predicting a 49ers victory, necessarily. But neither would I rule one out. If you are among those liking the 49ers' chances, please elaborate. Thanks.

News that rookie receiver Austin Pettis had been suspended for using performance-enhancing drugs delivered more bad news for the St. Louis Rams' 2011 draft class.

With Pettis out through the first two games in 2011, the Rams have only two of their own rookie draft choice on their 53-man roster.

First-round choice Robert Quinn and second-rounder Lance Kendricks remain active for the Rams from a group that included Pettis (suspended), Greg Salas (injured reserve), Jermale Hines (released, now with Indianapolis), Mikhail Baker (released), Jabara Williams (released, now with Chicago) and Jonathan Nelson (released, now with Carolina).

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch offered details on what the suspension means for Pettis. Thomas: "Pettis is eligible to participate in all offseason and preseason practices and games following the conclusion of this season. But regardless of whether there's a head-coaching change or not, missing the first two contests of the 2012 season will put him behind the other wideouts on the depth chart and in his quest for playing time."

Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch said Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo and general manager Billy Devaney do not deserve much sympathy. Miklasz: "In a league of parity and close games, the Rams have been outscored 1,110 to 630 overall in Spags' time as head coach, with an average loss of 16 points. This team isn't competitive. Here's the odd thing: The more the Rams lose, the more we seem inclined to make excuses on their behalf or attempt to rationalize their failures. We've become enablers. And I'm not bashing the fans; the media is at fault as much as anyone. ... This isn't high school football. Spagnuolo was hired to win football games. If a coach can't win games, he's fired. He could be a saint or a sinner, but he needs to be a winner. Besides, Spagnuolo has fired trainers, an equipment manager and other employees at Rams Park. A big part of his job is terminating players. It's nothing personal. So why are we so sensitive about Spagnuolo's future?"

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com says Paul McQuistan's use across the Seahawks' offensive line tells a story. Farnsworth: "The trials and tribulations of the Seahawks’ injury-ravaged offensive line can he traced by following McQuistan’s progression from being a backup; to starting at left guard; to returning to his backup role; to starting at right guard; to starting at left tackle. McQuistan stepped in at left guard because Robert Gallery was out with a groin injury. He moved in at right guard after rookie John Moffitt went down with a season-ending knee injury. He slid over to left tackle when Russell Okung needed season-ending surgery to repair a torn pectoral."

Also from Farnsworth: Tarvaris Jackson has stepped up his game in second halves recently.

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times says injuries haven't stopped the Seahawks' offensive line from succeeding.

Eric D. Williams of the Tacoma News Tribune checks in with 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh, who laments not drafting receiver Doug Baldwin. Baldwin and cornerback Richard Sherman are two Seattle players with roots on Harbaugh's former Stanford teams. Harbaugh: "Yeah, I’m kicking myself for not doing that. And at the same time I’m really, really happy for Doug. I’ve watched him this whole year whenever we’re watching crossover tape. Or I’ve sometimes put on the tape, just to watch him and Richard. And I’ve seen him really grow the whole season."

Also from Williams: Marshawn Lynch has become the Seahawks' face.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic updates the Cardinals' quarterback situation heading into Week 16. Sounds like John Skelton might get another start over Kevin Kolb, who remains limited following a concussion. Somers: "On Monday, Whisenhunt said the fairest way to prepare one of the quarterbacks was to give him most of the work in practice. Judging by Wednesday's events, that appears to be Skelton. Kolb was listed as limited in practice, while Skelton is healthy. The Cardinals are 5-1 in games Skelton has either started or taken the majority of the snaps. Skelton has a tendency to start slowly and finish strongly. In four of Skelton's past eight games, the Cardinals have made game-winning drives in the fourth quarter."

Also from Somers, with Jim Gintonio: Deuce Lutui professes to be a changed man after nearly landing with the Cincinnati Bengals during the offseason. Lutui: "Where I was and where I'm at now, I could have seen it as frustration or I could have seen it as a problem or stated it as an opportunity. I've taken it as an opportunity. I've taken all the help that I can get. I've stuck in with John Lott (strength and conditioning coach), really a credit to him in helping me get in the best shape that I can. ... I also worked with my head, off the field, and went in with a mental coach. I've got a mental coach that's helped me elevate my game and alter the way I think for the next offseason, and so I've put a lot in my mind and body this year.""

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com has this to say about the quarterback situation in Arizona: "The way the defense has been performing for the Cards would help any quarterback. Skelton has had plenty of rough patches, but Whisenhunt acknowledged he’d rather have a quarterback that can finish than one who starts fast and fades. Skelton, whose beginnings to games have been almost as unimpressive as his finishes impressive, certainly falls into that category."

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee says Braylon Edwards is anxious to get back on the field for the 49ers. Tight end Vernon Davis tweeted words of support to Edwards, who has struggled and was not active Monday night. Davis: "Just the look on his face is he wants to be out there bad. But I don't know the reason he's not. That's up to the coaches and him and Ferg (head trainer Jeff Ferguson) and the trainers. ... Just saying kind words like that keeps a guy like that level-headed and keeps him hungry and keeps him ready to go at any time. And I just felt that upon my spirit to lay that out there. And he is -- he's a guy that I'm grateful to have on the team. He's a true playmaker, and if given the opportunity I'm sure he'll take advantage of it."

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com has this to say about Justin Smith in his defensive player review from Week 15: "Started at right defensive end and had an outstanding all-around game. He had three tackles, a quarterback hurry and a fumble recovery, but he also set up Aldon Smith for a couple of sacks ... Left guard Trai Essex held him for a 10-yard penalty to wipe out a 6-yard gain in the second quarter ... Fought through left side of Steelers line and Rashard Mendenhall to pressure Ben Roethlisberger into second-quarter incompletion. ... Recovered fourth-quarter fumble that directly led to 49ers touchdown ... Generously gave himself up to tie up Essex so that Aldon Smith could record a 6-yard sack ... Justin Smith did the same thing on the next series, resulting in another Aldon Smith sack."

Also from Maiocco: an offensive player review. On Frank Gore: "Dropped a pass out of the backfield on the first drive ... Missed Cameron Heyward in blitz pickup as Smith was rushed into incompletion on first drive ... Dropped another pass on third-and-7, though it was unlikely he would've picked up first down with defensive lineman Brett Keisel standing between him and the sticks ... Called for chop block on defensive lineman Ziggy Hood, as center Jonathan Goodwin had his left hand on Hood as Gore went low to block Hood. Did not play the final nine minutes after scoring on 5-yard TD."

Grant Cohn of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat passes along Steve Young's thoughts on Aldon Smith, expressed recently on KNBR radio. Young compared Smith to a young Charles Haley. Young: "I’ve got to be honest with you. I’ve got to apologize to Aldon Smith because I hadn’t really seen him in person all year. And I apologize, because I had no idea how great he really was until I saw him in person. And that’s what matters. Hearing about it, watching it on TV and then seeing in person -- all different visceral relationships you have with something, and it matters. So around the league when everyone watched the 49ers kind of beat up on Ben Roethlisberger, don’t let him score, call a couple big touchdown drives, and they hear about the defense, they’ve watched Aldon Smith play and (laughs) whoever doesn’t think these guys are for real is kidding themselves."

Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News examines Andy Lee's contributions to the 49ers. Lee was the NFC's player of the week for special teams.

The MVP Watch list heading into Week 16 is half new and, hopefully, not half bad.

The Big Three haven't changed for weeks. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady have earned their spots at the top. The other seven spots are largely negotiable from week to week.

Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Terrell Suggs, Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker appeared last week. All five are sitting this one out for various reasons:

• Rank 'Em: NFL MVP Candidates

  Who tops your ballot for NFL MVP heading into Week 16? Consider the candidates and submit your rankings for NFL MVP honors.

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  Manning: Blame a 1-5 record over the Giants' last six games even though Manning remains supremely valuable to his team.
• Roethlisberger: A nasty ankle injury and the San Francisco 49ers' defense doomed Roethlisberger to a three-interception performance while raising questions about his status for the near future.
• Suggs: Great player, horrible defensive performance from Baltimore against San Diego.
• Gronkowski: How dare the Patriots target other players for a week. Gronkowski went without a touchdown after scoring 11 in his six previous games.
• Welker: Had four receptions for 41 yards, his second-lowest totals of the season.

Those five remain in the conversation outside The Conversation. In other words, none is going to seriously challenge for MVP honors while Rodgers, Brees and Brady are rewriting record books, but all five remain worthy of a mention.

The same was true for the five players new to the list from last week.

Good seeing you again, Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford. You, too, Tony Romo and Philip Rivers. There was also room for Justin Smith in the No. 10 spot after his 49ers held the Pittsburgh Steelers to three points Monday night. Smith is the best player on arguably the NFL's best defense, and one reason the 49ers have not allowed a rushing touchdown in 15 games or a 100-yard rusher in 36.

Coach Jim Harbaugh was on a roll Monday night.

What was it like inside the San Francisco 49ers' locker room before kickoff?

"It was dark," Harbaugh said to laughter, alluding to the power outage at Candlestick Park.

Harbaugh wasn't kidding later in his postgame media session when he promoted 49ers quarterback Alex Smith for Pro Bowl honors. Smith has an 11-3 starting record, a 16-to-5 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions and a 91.1 NFL passer rating. Smith took no sacks and committed no turnovers during the 49ers' 20-3 victory over Pittsburgh on Monday night.

This, by almost any measure, counts as a breakout season for Smith. But with only three Pro Bowl slots available in each conference, Smith would have to beat out one of the following players to represent the conference in the annual all-star game: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Matthew Stafford or Cam Newton.

That simply is not going to happen, in my view, but should it?

Smith does not measure up by the raw stats traditionally used to evaluate the position. Other quarterbacks have significantly more yards and touchdown passes. Some have higher passer ratings. But if Smith were doing the little things to improve his team's chances of winning, Total QBR would seemingly pick up on it. That is not the case.

Smith's QBR for the season stands at only 42.5 out of 100, below average. Pro Bowl quarterbacks generally rate around 65 over a full season. Smith has achieved those levels in select games, including with a 79.0 against the Steelers. But his season-long number suggests the 49ers are winning largely for reasons beyond the quarterback. Smith would deserve credit for doing his job and not preventing victories, but he would not get as much credit for securing them.

We've discussed this subject several times already this season. Harbaugh's comments invited another look.

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Quick thoughts on how NFC West passers graded out in Week 15 according to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point:

• Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers (79.0 QBR, 86.4 NFL rating): Smith completed 18 of 31 passes for 187 yards with one touchdown, no interceptions, no sacks and three rushes for 12 yards. He did not fumble. Smith completed 8 of 11 passes for 100 yards and a touchdown in the second half as the 49ers extended their lead from six to 17 points, according to ESPN Stats & Information. His QBR rose from 68.6 to 83.1 during a five-play, 79-yard drive leading to Smith's scoring pass for Vernon Davis. The Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger tossed three picks and took three sacks. His QBR was 24.6. The 49ers' victory gave teams with higher QBR scores than their opponents a 16-0 record in Week 15.
• John Skelton, Arizona Cardinals (55.6 QBR, 79.3 NFL rating): See earlier item.
• Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks (42.6 QBR, 94.4 NFL rating): See earlier item.
• Kellen Clemens, St. Louis Rams (24.0 QBR, 95.7 NFL rating): See earlier item.

The chart below shows how quarterbacks from games involving NFC West teams fared in Total QBR for Week 15.

The clutch-weight average column reflects game situations, not how well players performed during those situations. Any clutch average above 1.0 reflects a quarterback performing in higher-pressure situations.