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The San Francisco 49ers' NFC West rivals might as well start working on their divisional concession speeches.

That is because the 49ers, after one good season, suddenly tower over the Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals and St. Louis Rams by just about every meaningful on-field franchise marker.

That was my somewhat skeptical takeaway from the "NFL Future Power Rankings" projecting where teams are headed by 2015, using a weighted formula reflecting rosters, quarterbacks, drafts, front offices and coaching.

The 49ers, easily underrated while charging to a 13-3 record last season, appear overrated in relation to their division rivals by this ranking, in my view. Can we really say their front office blows away those for the other NFC West teams by an 8.5-to-5 margin across the board? A five-game cushion in the 2011 division standings says we can, but that will be a tough edge to maintain. Then again, last season did happen. It has to count for something, and the front office usually had the right answers.

"This category weighs each team's front office in terms of its ability to manage its roster and bring in new talent via free agency or trades," the methodology reads. "It also factors in a team's willingness to spend money, and a market's attraction to free agents. A 10 represents a team that has the ability to spend freely and obtain top-choice talent on a regular basis. A one represents a team that has little ability to spend, has no track record of bringing in quality free-agent talent or, worse, has spent big on free agents that have made little-to-no impact."

The 49ers hit big on Aldon Smith in the 2011 draft while finding outstanding free-agent value in Pro Bowl cornerback Carlos Rogers. They succeeded in keeping together their defense. CEO Jed York appears to have made the right move for a general manager even though fans were hardly chanting for Trent Baalke to assume the role. York and Baalke landed Jim Harbaugh as head coach.

On the flip side, the 49ers' front office has done less heavy lifting than the front offices for Seattle and St. Louis in particular. San Francisco stayed the course to a greater degree than those other teams, relying upon a new coaching staff to get more from Alex Smith and others. But the Rams remain in the early stages of a rebuild, while the Seahawks will need better on-field results to validate the high-impact moves they've made since Pete Carroll arrived in 2010. Seattle's unsettled fate at quarterback stands as another key variable.

Overall, the 49ers finished ahead of their division rivals in all five core categories except for one. They were second to St. Louis in projected quarterback strength. Having Sam Bradford gave the Rams 6.25 points out of 10 in that category, ahead of scores for Seattle (4.5) and Arizona (3.75).

I'll be curious to hear your thoughts on how these teams are set up for the future. I suspect a 2008 projection would have expected more from the Cardinals in 2011.

As the piece freely admits, these projections cannot anticipate everything.

"But they do provide some interesting conclusions about what's truly important to succeeding on a perennial basis in the NFL, specifically the value of a franchise QB," the piece notes. "And while some teams may experience a down year, the squads at the top of this list are well suited for sustained success over the long term."

Note: Gary Horton, Matt Williamson, Trent Dilfer and Mel Kiper Jr. worked with Bill Polian in putting together these projections.

ESPN's Bill Polian pointed to Bruce Irvin (Seattle Seahawks) and A.J. Jenkins (San Francisco 49ers) as two surprising first-round selections.

Polian liked the Jenkins selection relative to where the 49ers got him. His concerns on Irvin related only to off-field issues that raised character concerns for some teams.

Irvin, Fletcher Cox and Michael Brockers were three players the Seahawks were considering when they traded back three spots into the 15th overall slot. Cox went to Philadelphia at No. 12. Brockers went to St. Louis at No. 14. Seattle was contemplating moving back again to the No. 20 range, but general manager John Schneider had heard rumblings about teams' potential first-round interest in Irvin over the previous couple days.

The Jets were picking 16th, and they were also interested in pass-rush help. That was one reason the Seahawks felt as though they'd better take Irvin where they got him.

"Irvin's problem was not football," Polian said. "He is an outstanding rusher. ... Pete Carroll knows him well. Pete's had a history of being able to coach those kinds of guys and do well with them. Hopefully, for the young man's sake, it will work out fine."

The San Francisco 49ers twice lost close games against New Orleans in the Superdome when the Saints were allegedly eavesdropping on visiting coaches from 2002-2004.

Coincidence? Evidence of malfeasance?

"There’s something missing here," said Bill Polian, the ESPN analyst and former longtime NFL executive. "I don’t know what kind of competitive advantage you can get."

The report by "Outside the Lines" cites people familiar with the Saints' game-day operations as saying Mickey Loomis, the Saints' general manager, had the ability to monitor opposing coaches from his private box during home games.

NFC West teams played three games at the Superdome during the period in question.

The 49ers suffered a 35-27 defeat at New Orleans in 2002 after the Saints outscored them 22-3 in the fourth quarter. They also suffered a 30-27 defeat there in 2004 after Aaron Brooks found Donte Stallworth for a 16-yard touchdown with 1:01 remaining. Also in 2004, the Seattle Seahawks claimed a 21-7 victory at New Orleans.

The NFL has already suspended Loomis, a former longtime Seahawks executive, for the first eight games of the 2012 season as punishment for his handling of the Saints' bounty situation.

The allegations against Loomis are damaging whether or not the Saints realized any in-game advantages.

"Mickey would have to know the verbiage of every other opposing team in order to translate it, and then he would have to do it instantly and find some way to communicate with his coaching staff and get it down to the field in time for it to be useful," Polian said. "That would be very difficult to do, in my opinion."

The Saints have strongly denied the allegations.

Steve Mariucci (2002) and Dennis Erickson (2004) were the 49ers' head coaches for the NFC West defeats in question. Erickson and Loomis worked together in Seattle years earlier.

Another NFC West alum, Jim Haslett, was the Saints' head coach at the time.

The Arizona Cardinals went from pursuing Peyton Manning to paying Kevin Kolb this offseason.

Another quarterback will have a chance to grab the Cardinals' attention this offseason.

John Skelton, who owns six game-winning drives in 13 career games, will be given a chance to compete for the starting job at training camp. At least one longtime NFL talent evaluator thinks Skelton has an opportunity to become the long-term starter in Arizona.

Bill Polian, the ESPN analyst and six-time NFL executive of the year, recently pointed to Skelton as a key variable in rating how well the Cardinals fared in recent drafts.

"The Cardinals have done a solid job over the past three seasons, garnering eight starters and nine contributors from the draft," Polian wrote. "Beanie Wells, Sam Acho and Patrick Peterson have made great contributions. If QB John Skelton is 'the man' (still a possibility, for me, depending on camp), they've hit the jackpot."

We haven't heard much about Skelton this offseason. Perhaps that changes during camp.

The St. Louis Rams, in trading the second pick of the 2012 NFL draft to Washington, have already benefited from one team desperate for a quarterback.

They could benefit again if the Miami Dolphins traded into the third overall spot from No. 8 to ensure landing Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

The Rams, picking sixth and uninterested in a quarterback that early, would have one additional non-passer to consider if Tannehill joined Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III to make this the first 1-2-3 draft for QBs since 1999.

What are the chances?

The new wage scale for top draft choices has led some to suggest teams will be more interested in trading into the top few spots from lower in the first round. ESPN's Bill Polian advocated this position in his latest column . He sees the QB-needy Dolphins having little choice but to make a strong play for Tannehill, which could mean leaping past Cleveland, owner of the fourth overall choice, for that opportunity.

But the price for moving up would seem to rise for two reasons. One, Tannehill plays quarterback, the most valuable position, giving Minnesota, owner of the third pick at present, additional leverage. Two, the third overall choice is more affordable for the Vikings than it would have been in the past, giving them less incentive to trade out of the choice as a matter of general principle.

The Vikings would presumably select USC's Matt Kalil third if they remained in that spot. Cleveland, picking fourth, already has a franchise left tackle in Joe Thomas. But if Minnesota traded back to No. 8, the Vikings could forget about Kalil, perhaps settling instead on another tackle, Riley Reiff.

Tampa Bay holds the fifth pick and would not pass on Alabama running back Trent Richardson, in Polian's estimation.

In that scenario, the Rams could choose from Kalil, Oklahoma State receiver Justin Blackmon and LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne, among others. They would have tougher choices, but also superior options.

Paul Kuharsky's take on former Tennessee Titans coach Jeff Fisher should help better inform St. Louis Rams fans.

The most interesting part, to me, centers around possible candidates for general manager if Fisher became the Rams' next head coach.

Kuharsky mentions two names, both familiar to NFC West followers:

• Ruston Webster: Webster is the Titans' vice president of player personnel under former Seahawks executive Mike Reinfeldt. While with Seattle, Webster seemed to get along well with everyone on both sides of the Tim Ruskell-Mike Holmgren. The fact that he arrived in Seattle with Ruskell and left to join Reinfeldt's staff attests to that (Reinfeldt was Holmgren's top confidant in Seattle). Webster would work well with Fisher.
• Randy Mueller: Mueller has been a senior executive with the San Diego Chargers since 2008. He predated Holmgren in Seattle and worked well with Holmgren before leaving to serve as general manager in New Orleans. Kuharsky mentions Mueller because the Titans tried to interview Mueller during the process that culminated with Reinfeldt's hiring. Rams fans might know that Mueller was instrumental in bringing Jim Haslett to New Orleans as Saints coach.

Webster would be an obvious candidate because he has worked with Fisher recently. Kuharsky also mentioned Fishers' relationships with Bill Polian and Rich McKay from their days together on the NFL's competition committee. McKay hasn't worked directly in personnel recently. He and Webster were together in Tampa Bay previously.

Fisher also worked in Tennessee with current Titans vice president of football operations Lake Dawson. Dawson, the team's former pro personnel director, worked with Reinfeldt and Webster in Seattle.

The 1983 NFL draft might have been the best of the modern era even without Hall of Fame quarterbacks John Elway, Jim Kelly or Dan Marino.

It was that good.

"I think if you asked each guy to a man, in particular the Hall of Fame guys, there has always been a pride about our class," said cornerback Darrell Green, the 28th overall choice in 1983 and a Hall of Famer. "Without ever discussing it, we knew we were a pretty special class of athletes."

The class produced six Hall of Famers –- Elway, Kelly, Marino, Green, Eric Dickerson and Bruce Matthews -– in addition to recent Hall finalists Richard Dent and Roger Craig. Of the 335 players drafted, 41 combined for 142 Pro Bowl appearances.

No other draft class has produced more than 34 Pro Bowl players since the NFL and AFL combined for a common draft in 1967, according to ESPN Stats & Information. That year served as the starting point for this project ranking the five best draft classes. The 1996, 1981, 1969 and 1985 drafts also made the cut.

Not that making the cut was good enough for some.

"If you took the defensive players in our draft and put them on the field against any class, we would shut them out," said Ronnie Lott, one of the more decorated members of a 1981 class featuring Lawrence Taylor, Mike Singletary, Rickey Jackson, Howie Long and Kenny Easley.

The project was biased against recent classes because their players haven’t had time to achieve in ways that set apart the older classes. The 2001 class has already produced 33 Pro Bowlers, same as the 1996 class and more than every other class but 1983, 1987 and 1988. But the best players from that class aren't finished achieving.

The biggest challenge, at least to me, was settling on the right criteria. ESPN Stats & Information provided an updated version of the spreadsheet used to identify elite draft classes for a previous project . The spreadsheet awarded points to players based on:

• Hall of Fame enshrinement (15 points)
• MVP awards (8)
• Player of the year awards (6)
• All-Pro first-team awards (4)
• All-Pro second-team awards (3)
• Super Bowl victories (3)
• Pro Bowls (2)
• Rookie of the year awards (2)
• Super Bowl defeats (1)

I used the spreadsheet as a starting point.

From there, I assigned 15 points to current or recently retired players likely destined for Canton. The players I singled out were: Troy Polamalu, Dwight Freeney, Ed Reed, LaDainian Tomlinson, Steve Hutchinson, Brian Urlacher, Tom Brady, Champ Bailey, Peyton Manning, Randy Moss, Alan Faneca, Orlando Pace, Walter Jones, Tony Gonzalez, Jason Taylor, Jonathan Ogden, Marvin Harrison, Ray Lewis, Brian Dawkins, Terrell Owens, Derrick Brooks, Marshall Faulk, Larry Allen, Michael Strahan, Brett Favre, Junior Seau and Deion Sanders.

I added five points for Hall of Fame finalists not yet enshrined -- Cortez Kennedy, Shannon Sharpe, etc. These changes allowed the rich to get richer, of course, because all those players already had lots of Pro Bowls on their resumés. But if it was important to recognize current Hall of Famers -- and it was, I thought -- then it was important to acknowledge the strongest candidates not yet enshrined.

Another thing I noticed: These changes didn't significantly alter results, which were predicated mostly on Pro Bowl appearances, a statistical correlation revealed.

The next challenge was making sure the formula didn't acknowledge great players at the expense of good ones. ESPN's John Clayton and Gary Horton of Scouts Inc. felt the formula should take special care in this area. I wasn't as adamant.

"You love the Hall of Famers," Horton said, "but I like the class where the guy plays at a high level for a long time. I love those third-round picks that just play and play. We shouldn’t make a mistake at the first pick. That guy should be a great player."

Clayton used approximate-value ratings from Pro Football Reference to produce averages for each draft class. The 1993 class produced the highest average, followed by the 1996, 1983, 1975 and 1971 classes. Clayton also plugged in total games played. The 1983 class edged the 1993 class for the most, followed by the 1990, 1976 and 1988 classes.

A few key variables changed along the way.

Teams drafted at least 442 players annually from 1967 to 1976. They drafted more than 330 players each year from 1977 through 1992. The 1993 class featured only 224 players, fewer than any class under consideration. The first 224 players drafted in 1969 had much higher average approximate-value ratings than the 1993 class, for example. More recent draft classes also benefited from league expansion, which opened roster spots and opportunities for additional players.

NFL regular seasons also grew in length from 14 to 16 games beginning in 1978.

My focus was more on what the draft classes produced and less on extenuating circumstances.

The 1993 class is among those deserving honorable mention. Do the most decorated members of that class -- Strahan, Willie Roaf, Will Shields, John Lynch, Jerome Bettis and Drew Bledsoe among them -- hold up to the best from other years?

Take a look at my top five classes and decide for yourself.

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1983

Why it's the best: No other class came close using the point system from ESPN Stats & Information. The 1983 class finished in a virtual tie with the 1996 and 1981 classes even when I removed from consideration the three Hall of Fame quarterbacks -- Elway, Marino and Jim Kelly. No class had more combined Pro Bowls from its top-10 picks (42) or more combined Pro Bowls from players drafted later than the 200th overall choice (26). Five of the six Hall of Famers played their entire NFL careers with one team for 83 combined seasons, or 16.6 on average.

Hall of Famers: Elway (Broncos), Kelly (Bills), Marino (Dolphins), Green (Redskins), Dickerson (Rams), Matthews (Oilers)

Hall of Fame finalists: Richard Dent (Bears), Roger Craig (49ers)

Other big names: Karl Mecklenburg (Broncos), Joey Browner (Vikings), Chris Hinton (Broncos), Charles Mann (Redskins), Dave Duerson (Bears), Leonard Marshall (Giants), Albert Lewis (Chiefs), Curt Warner (Seahawks), Jimbo Covert (Bears), Henry Ellard (Rams), Mark Clayton (Dolphins), Tim Krumrie (Bengals), Greg Townsend (Raiders), Gill Byrd (Chargers), Don Mosebar (Raiders), Darryl Talley (Bills).

Late-round steals: Mecklenburg was the 310th overall choice. Dent went 203rd overall. Clayton went 223rd. They combined for 15 Pro Bowls.

Ah, the memories: Green grew up in Houston rooting for the Oilers, but his hometown team wasn't very accommodating on draft day. His family didn't have cable TV, so they couldn't watch the draft on ESPN. They had heard the Oilers would be showing it at their facility, or at least providing real-time updates, but Green was turned away.

"They sent my little behind on out of there," Green said. "That is the way that went. What is funny, I’m a Houstonian, I played 20 years in the NFL, started 18 years and I never played in Houston but one time, so I couldn’t stick it to them. ... But you always love your hometown. I was a Luv Ya Blue, Bum Phillips, Kenny Burrough, Earl Campbell, Dan Pastorini fan."

Green was used to the cold shoulder. Tim Lewis, drafted 11th overall by Green Bay, was supposed to be the superstar cornerback that year. Looking back, Green liked going one spot after Marino. Green also values being a bookend to a first round featuring Elway on the other side.

"[Redskins general manager] Bobby Beathard told me if I was there, he would take me," Green said. "I'd always been told by pro players, 'Hey, don’t believe anything they say.' As an adult, I know why. Things change. But the man told me. We got down to Dan Marino at 27 and I knew I wouldn't be 27. Then when we got to 28, the last pick of the first round, now I’ve got nothing else to do but believe it. I was extremely excited he maintained his word."

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1996

Why it's No. 2: Jonathan Ogden and Ray Lewis arguably rank among the three best players at their positions in NFL history. Marvin Harrison and Terrell Owens arguably rank among the 10 greatest receivers. Between four and seven members from this class have strong credentials for Canton. Only the 1983 class produced more total Pro Bowl appearances. Unlike some other classes -- 1988 comes to mind -- this one provided star power deep into the draft.

Hall of Famers: none yet.

Hall of Fame finalists: none yet.

Strongest Hall credentials: Jonathan Ogden (Ravens), Marvin Harrison (Colts), Ray Lewis (Ravens), Brian Dawkins (Eagles), Terrell Owens (49ers), Zach Thomas (Dolphins), La'Roi Glover (Raiders).

Other big names: Mike Alstott (Bucs), Willie Anderson (Bengals), Simeon Rice (Bucs), Lawyer Milloy (Patriots), Tedy Bruschi (Patriots), Eddie George (Titans), Jeff Hartings (Lions), Keyshawn Johnson (Jets), Donnie Edwards (Chiefs), Jon Runyan (Oilers), Amani Toomer (Giants), Muhsin Muhammad (Panthers), Stephen Davis (Redskins), Joe Horn (Chiefs), Marco Rivera (Packers).

Late-round steals: Fifth-rounders Thomas, Glover and Horn combined for 17 Pro Bowls. Another fifth-rounder, Jermaine Lewis, added two more. No other fifth round produced more total Pro Bowls during the period in question. Although expansion added additional picks to more recent fifth rounds, those picks were also later in the draft. Thomas and Glover should get strong Hall of Fame consideration.

Ah, the memories: Glover was the 16th defensive tackle drafted in 1996. He wasn't even invited to the combine initially, and when he did get the call, there wasn't enough time to prepare for the specialized events. Glover, who weighed about 265 pounds at San Diego State, was in trouble and he knew it.

"It's funny to me now, but it wasn't funny then," Glover said. "I got a call maybe a week before the combine, so I wasn’t prepared. I was out there doing my long-distance conditioning training and I wasn’t doing speed-type training. I may have ran like a 5.1 or 5.2, a very bad time."

Glover performed much better at his personal workout, dropping those times into the low 4.9s. Oakland made him the 166th player chosen that year.

"I just remember feeling goosebumps and I started sweating -- the dream is coming true," Glover said. "And then I was put on the phone with Mr. Al Davis. He asked me a very specific question: 'How would you like to be an Oakland Raider?' And I damn near lost it. I didn’t cry or anything. I kept my composure over the phone. As soon as I hung up and saw my name come on the ticker -- I lived in a tiny 2-3 bedroom home -- the place just erupted. All the women were crying and all the men were asking for tickets."

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1981

Why it's No. 3: This was arguably the greatest defensive draft under consideration, particularly near the top. The NFL's best athletes typically played offense, but 1981 draftees Taylor, Lott and Easley helped change the dynamics. This draft wasn't as strong as some throughout, but its star power on defense set it apart. Key players from this draft helped the 49ers, Redskins, Giants, Bears and Raiders dominate at times during the decade. Only the 1986 draft produced more Super Bowl winners.

Hall of Famers: Taylor (Giants), Lott (49ers), Mike Singletary (Bears), Howie Long (Raiders), Rickey Jackson (Saints), Russ Grimm (Redskins).

Hall of Fame finalists: none.

Other big names: Easley, Eric Wright (49ers), Dennis Smith (Broncos), Cris Collinsworth (Bengals), Hanford Dixon (Browns), Freeman McNeil (Jets), James Brooks (Chargers), Brian Holloway (Patriots), Hugh Green (Bucs), Carlton Williamson (49ers), Neil Lomax (Cardinals), Dexter Manley (Redskins), Mark May (Redskins), E.J. Junior (Cardinals).

Late-round steals: Charlie Brown, chosen 201st overall by the Redskins, caught 16 touchdown passes in his first two seasons, earning Pro Bowl honors both years. Wade Wilson, chosen 210th, played 19 seasons and earned one Pro Bowl berth, in 1988.

Ah, the memories: Once the 49ers drafted Lott eighth overall, the USC safety headed to the airport to use a ticket the team had held for him. Easley, chosen sixth by the Seahawks, was the other great safety in that draft class and the two were so closely linked that the person behind the airline counter mixed up Lott's destination.

"You are going to Seattle?"

"No, San Francisco," Lott replied.

Lott often looks back on how things might have been different if the Saints had drafted Taylor instead of George Rogers first overall. That wasn't going to happen because the Saints wanted a running back to help them control the clock, and they were especially particular about character in that draft -- their first with Bum Phillips as head coach.

"Lawrence Taylor, I didn't realize he was going to be that type of player, but Rickey Jackson did turn out to be the player we needed [in the second round]," Phillips said. "We needed a great player and a great individual. We needed some leadership and we needed the right kind of character to be leaders."

The 49ers needed a new secondary. They used that 1981 draft to select Lott, Wright and Williamson.

"I talked to Bill Walsh and his statement was, 'If I see it on film once, then my coaches should be able to get it out of a guy,'" said Horton, the Scouts Inc. founder and veteran NFL talent evaluator. "That always stuck with me. He was amazing at seeing things on tape. That '81 draft was a smart draft. You could look at that draft and you could see what teams were thinking."

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1969

Why it's No. 4: Roger Wehrli's 2007 Hall of Fame enshrinement gave this class five inductees. Only three other classes managed more combined Pro Bowl appearances. Some of the names in this class won't resonate with recent generations, and that is understandable. But this was still a strong class and one worthy of our consideration.

Hall of Famers: Joe Greene (Steelers), Ted Hendricks (Raiders), O.J. Simpson (Bills), Wehrli (Cardinals), Charlie Joiner (Oilers).

Hall of Fame finalists: L.C. Greenwood (Steelers), Bob Kuechenberg (Eagles).

Other big names: George Kunz (Falcons), Bill Bergey (Bengals), Bill Stanfill (Dolphins), Calvin Hill (Cowboys), Ed White (Vikings), Gene Washington (49ers), Jack Rudnay (Chiefs), Bill Bradley (Eagles), Ted Kwalick (49ers), Jim Marsalis (Chiefs), Ron Johnson (Browns), Fred Dryer (Giants).

Late-round steals: Greenwood was a six-time Pro Bowl choice and was the 238th overall pick. The Falcons found five-time Pro Bowler Jeff Van Note with the 262nd choice. Larry Brown, chosen 191st overall, was a four-time Pro Bowl selection.

Ah, the memories: There was no scouting combine back then. Wehrli couldn't remember seeing a pro scout, even at Missouri practices. He had never even run a 40-yard dash until a Cardinals scout asked him to run one at the Hula Bowl all-star game in Hawaii.

Wehrli agreed to run on the spot even though he was wearing pads, the playing surface was natural grass and the stakes were higher than he realized.

"At the time, I didn’t know it was a Cardinals scout," Wehrli said. "I ran the 40, came back and he said, 'Man, we didn’t realize you were that fast.' Later, he told me that timing moved me up to a first-round draft choice [from the third round]."

Wehrli had clocked in the 4.5-second range. He would run 4.4s on Astroturf later in the pros.

"You never really trained for it back then," he said.

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1985

Why it's No. 5: Just as the 1983 class featured more than quarterbacks, the 1985 version offered much more than the most prolific receiver in NFL history. Yes, Jerry Rice was the 16th overall choice, helping set apart this class from some others. But the supporting cast featured elite talent, from Bruce Smith to Chris Doleman and beyond.

Hall of Famers: Rice (49ers), Smith (Bills).

Hall of Fame finalists: Andre Reed (Bills).

Other big names: Lomas Brown (Lions), Steve Tasker (Oilers), Ray Childress (Oilers), Kevin Greene (Rams), Jay Novacek (Cardinals), Bill Fralic (Falcons), Jerry Gray (Rams), Randall Cunningham (Eagles), Ron Wolfley (Cardinals), Al Toon (Jets), Jim Lachey (Chargers), Kevin Glover (Lions), Mark Bavaro (Giants), Herschel Walker (Cowboys), Duane Bickett (Colts), Doug Flutie (Rams), Jack Del Rio (Saints).

Late-round steals: Tasker became a seven-time Pro Bowl choice on special teams as the 226th overall choice (albeit with Buffalo, after the Oilers waived him). Greene was a fifth-rounder, Novacek was a sixth-rounder and Bavaro, one of the toughest tight ends, provided excellent value in the fourth round.

Ah, the memories: Bill Polian was a little-known pro personnel director with USFL roots when Bills general manager Terry Bledsoe suffered a heart attack two months before the draft. The Bills had already landed their franchise quarterback in Kelly two years earlier, but his two-year detour through the USFL had set back the organization. Buffalo held the No. 1 overall pick, and the stakes were high.

Polian took over GM duties. Norm Pollom, a holdover from the Chuck Knox years, headed up the college scouting side.

The Bills were in great hands. Although some fans hoped the team would draft Flutie, Polian and Pollom found building blocks.

Aggressive wheeling and dealing allowed Buffalo to land cornerback Derrick Burroughs with the 14th choice, acquired from Green Bay, even after drafting Smith first overall. Reed was a steal in the fourth round. The decision to draft Smith over Ray Childress was the right one even though Childress became a five-time Pro Bowl choice for the Oilers.

The Rams should feel better about Sam Bradford's prospects as the No. 1 overall choice in the 2010 draft after watching the quarterback work out Monday at the University of Oklahoma.

The session, which begins at noon ET, is a setup. That's the reality of pro days featuring elite prospects. They are choreographed to make the stars look good. Quarterbacks throw to their own receivers at their own stadiums on their own terms, without having to worry about coverages or pass rushes. It's tough for great college players to look bad under those circumstances.

The first pro day I attended helped Ryan Leaf cement his status as one of the top two choices in the 1998 draft. Colts president Bill Polian and then-Chargers general manager Bobby Beathard stood on the field at Washington State's Martin Stadium with straight faces while Leaf showed off his obvious physical skills.

If either personnel evaluator had known Leaf would bomb in the NFL, neither would have wasted his time in Pullman that day.

Rams GM Billy Devaney worked under Beathard at the time. The Leaf experience, coupled with his experience in Atlanta during the Michael Vick saga, left Devaney more focused than ever on a quarterback's maturity, character and overall ability to comport himself as a franchise player. Bradford appears to have convinced the Rams on those fronts. His workout Monday is significant for them mostly because Bradford still must prove he has overcome the shoulder injury that ended his 2009 season.

Bradford's surgeon, Dr. James Andrews, has vouched for the shoulder in conversations with the Rams and Redskins, Peter King notes. Bradford would have to struggle pretty badly during his pro day to hurt his draft stock. I have a hard time thinking that will happen under the circumstances.

The recent MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference produced several notable exchanges, including one featuring an entertaining reference to Seahawks coach Pete Carroll.

Panelists included Patriots president Jonathan Kraft and Colts president Bill Polian, and both agreed that football coaches welcomed whatever data they thought might give them an edge. But some coaches are smarter than others, Kraft suggested, and that's where the Carroll reference surfaced.

Polian: "The coaches live by that [information]. ... We spend hundreds of thousands of dollars with computer application companies because they think they can find an edge. I don't know if they get it, to be truthful with you."

Kraft: "I agree completely with Bill and I think they are only limited by their own intellectual ability to then take that data and do something with it. I think they are all open to it. Some are just more intellectually capable than others. And I'll tell you, I've been lucky because, our first year in the league and the reason we bought into the league was the salary cap, we came into the league in '94, and I've had the chance to work with Bill Parcells, Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick, all of whom I think people would say are pretty good coaches. Their intellectual capacities are all dramatically different. And without going into --"

Laughter from the audience interrupted Kraft at this point. Another panelist then asked, "Without going into what?"

Kraft: "Without going into where each of them have their own strengths and weaknesses, I would just say all of them would gravitate to what Bill was just saying, but some of them, or individuals, might have an ability to do more with it than others."

More laughter and reaction from panelists and the audience.

Kraft, also laughing: "No, that wasn't meant -- they have all of their own strengths. Don't read anything into that. Please, no one tweet out ... that wouldn't be good."

Panelist Mark Cuban then pulled out his Blackberry and pretended to tweet the comments. More laughter.

ESPN has video of the panel discussion, which I found entertaining (good summary here). The comments about Parcells, Carroll and Belichick weren't intended to insult anyone, but the informal setting did result in high-ranking officials lowering their guards.

Those watching were the beneficiaries, regardless of intellectual capacities.

NWCards from Mukilteo, Wash., writes: Sando, what will the Cards do with the $11.5M they saved with the Kurt Warner retirement? How does it affect the free-agent situation? Do they get to sign a free agent with the same dollar value to replace him? Of course, this is the Bidwills we're talking about here. They may just want to keep the $11.5M.

Mike Sando: Warner is retiring. He is not leaving as an unrestricted free agent. Therefore, the Cardinals do not get the benefits associated with losing a player in free agency (in terms of a compensatory draft choice and considerations related to being one of the final eight playoff teams).

Arizona definitely saves the $4 million Warner would have earned in base salary for 2010. Warner forfeited that money by retiring. The other $7.5 million to which you refer represents the second half of the $15 million that counted as the "signing bonus" he received upon signing the deal.

The bonus was set up like most large signing bonuses. The team scheduled the bonus in two payments of $7.5 million, one last year and one this offseason. It was pretty much a given that Warner would not receive the second payment if he retired after one season. He retired before receiving the second payment of $7.5 million, and obviously the Cardinals aren't going to pay it now. Teams set up large bonus payments this way so they're not left trying to recoup money after a player walks away.

Back to your point. The Cardinals will have $11.5 million in their pockets that they would have paid to Warner had he kept playing. This should help their short-term cash flow, but I also think they will not spend the money just because they have it. Warner was worth the money. Not everyone else is worth the money.

The NFL is heading into an uncertain labor situation. Teams will be less excited about committing big money on long-term contracts. I would not expect the Cardinals to rush out and find ways to spend that money. If you blame that solely on the Cardinals' ownership, you're probably overlooking the fact that a lot of teams will proceed that way.

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Dylan from Washington, D.C., writes: Hey Mike, I love the blog and I read it every day. I know a lot of readers have said it before, bus as a 49ers fan, it is hard to get quality info out east. My question is of course a draft question. I know the 49ers need a right tackle, a safety and a big-play/return man. I have read a lot of mock drafts saying they go tackle and safety in the first round, but I was thinking a different line and was wondering what you thought of it.

I read the scouting reports on Myron Rolle, and I liked him in college, and I was wondering if the 49ers would consider holding off until the second round and pick up Rolle to eventually replace Lewis at strong safety so that they can draft someone like C.J. Spiller with 13 and the best offensive tackle available with 16?

Mike Sando: Thanks for the support. I would take no issue with the 49ers waiting until after the first round to take a safety. I could even see them waiting until after the first round to take an offensive lineman, although they do need to find their next right tackle.

Safety generally is not a premium position. If you take one in the first round, that safety should be a dynamic talent, not just an OK starter. Very few safeties affect the game enough to justify picking one that early.

The perceived need at running back is a bit odd because the team has Frank Gore and 2009 third-rounder Glen Coffee already on the roster, while Michael Robinson is another running back commanding a roster spot. Is that really the position where the 49ers need to find their return guy? Or might the team be wiser using an earlier pick on a cornerback prospect who could help on returns before developing into a starter? I'm not sure I know the answer. It does seem as though the 49ers could use a change-of-pace running back.

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Tim from Orlando, Fla., writes: The Rams are bad now, but historically they are far from inept. Since 1974, the Rams have played in nine conference title games and three Super Bowls.

Mike Sando: I wondered if someone would take issue with my use of the word "inept" to describe the state of the Rams and Cardinals before Kurt Warner arrived. The Rams had posted nine consecutive losing seasons before Warner and the 1999 team produced a 13-3 record. That is pretty inept.

The Cardinals' situation might bear revisiting. Warner was actually 3-12 as a their starter over a two-year period before things began to change under Ken Whisenhunt in 2007. I had associated the revival more with the 2008 season, when Whisenhunt committed to Warner as the starter.

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IdahoVandalHawk from Bend, Ore., writes: Hey Mike, maybe this is a stupid question, but why do you think the "head coach in waiting" idea worked so well for Jim Caldwell and the Colts and so poorly for Jim Mora and the Seahawks?

Many fans and members of the media felt that the Holmgren-to-Mora transition was doomed from the start. When Caldwell was named the successor to Tony Dungy a year before Dungy retired, did we hear any complaints from Indianapolis? Obviously, having Peyton Manning on your team can't hurt, but it can't be all Peyton, can it? Your thoughts? Thanks.

Mike Sando: It can be 50 percent or 75 percent Manning, and that is a huge difference. We also need to consider the personalities of the people involved, and the football leadership of both organizations.

Mike Holmgren made it known over time that he wasn't all that excited about the team naming Mora as his successor. It wasn't that Holmgren had anything against Mora. He just would have preferred if the whole transitional thing hadn't been announced. He also didn't like it when people made it seem like he was a big backer of the plan, when in reality that move was largely a Tim Ruskell production.

For the Colts, Dungy was very much behind the decision to elevate Caldwell. Dungy also doesn't seem to let his ego factor into these personal interactions as much as the people in Seattle allowed egos to affect the dynamics. That is another big difference.

Also, the Colts have a very strong football operations man in president Bill Polian. The Colts have drafted very well under Polian even though they routinely pick later than most teams (Manning helps make those picks look better, but still, the bottom line is the same).

Taking those factors into account helps explain why things worked so well for the Colts. Remove any one of those factors -- particularly the talent that leads to winning, which makes everything OK -- and things can break down quickly.

Longtime NFC West Gridiron Challenge leader "Steak for Dinner?" will have company across the table at the imaginary championship banquet.

Burty's Boys outscored the carnivorous one 146-117 in Week 17 to finish in a first-place tie out of 2,245 entries. Both had 2,230 points. I'm trying to find out whether Bill Polian forced "Steak for Dinner?" to rest any starters in the final week.

Either way, great job.

The regular-season portion of the contest is now over. You'll need to sign up for the playoff version to keep competing.

This was my first experience in a Gridiron Challenge league and my first fantasy football team since about 1994 or 1995. It was lots of fun. My team put up 127 points in Week 17 to finish with 1,961 points, good for 257th place and the 94.4 percentile. I'll take it.

Some of my comments from last week apparently became bulletin-board material for one of the other competitors.

"If all goes to plan," I wrote, "I'll jump past Crabtree's Folly, among others right ahead of me in the standings."

All Crabtree's Folly did was score a league-high 184 points last week (see second chart). Well played.

John Crumpacker of the San Francisco Chronicle says the 49ers face two must-win games because losing to the Lions or Rams would raise questions about the team's direction. Coach Mike Singletary: "For us, it's extremely important to finish [8-8] for many different reasons. We want to win. Going into this game, we found out we are not going to be in the playoffs. What do you do, fold the tent and go home? I know the character of these guys. They're disappointed, but at the same time, we have an opportunity in these games."

Also from Crumpacker: Frank Gore needs 58 yards rushing for a fourth consecutive season with at least 1,000 yards.

More from Crumpacker: Josh Morgan leads the 49ers' receivers in receptions and is making his mark as a kick returner.

The 49ers' Web site identifies nine award winners for 2009, with explanations for each award. Winners include Vernon Davis, Patrick Willis, David Baas, Aubrayo Franklin, Brit Miller, Brian Jennings, Jeff Ulbrich, Takeo Spikes and Shawntae Spencer.

Kevin Lynch of Niner Insider says the 49ers think Morgan has made more strides than any receiver on the team this season, and that he has a chance to reach the next level. Offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye: "He is a big, physical guy that has burst and power and speed which is evident on the kickoff returns. He has good run-after ability and he is a good blocker, adding on in the running game. I think he has been the most improved perimeter guy. I am very pleased."

Matt Maiocco of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat says it's important for Alex Smith to finish the season strong. Agreed.

Also from Maiocco: Michael Robinson takes over as Gore's primary backup while rookie Glen Coffee recovers from injury.

More from Maiocco: Lions coach Jim Schwartz was among the candidates San Francisco interviewed before hiring Mike Nolan in 2005.

More yet from Maiocco: Isaac Bruce has probably played his final down for the 49ers.

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee checks in with new 49ers kicker Ricky Schmitt, who is grateful for the opportunity.

Daniel Brown of the San Jose Mercury News says the 49ers will likely bring back Raye as offensive coordinator despite underwhelming stats this season.

Dan Bickley of the Arizona Republic checks in with Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner, who is preparing for another game against his former team. Bickley: "The shift began this season, when Warner said he was "over" the whole emotional saga that came with playing against the Rams. After all, he has played more regular-season games with Arizona (60) than he did with St. Louis (53). He also has beaten the Rams in five consecutive games. The accumulation of time, revenge and two consecutive NFC West titles have altered his perspective."

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic says the Cardinals aren't concerned about having far fewer big plays on offense this season. Coach Ken Whisenhunt: "We haven't had the dramatic catches down the field like we had last year, but we've had some chunks were we've caught it and had a 20-, 30-yard gain." The Cardinals rank 12th in pass plays covering at least 20 yards. They have 42. They rank tied for last with the Rams in pass plays covering at least 40 yards. Each team has two.

Also from Somers: The Cardinals' improved running game is taking pressure off Warner. Warner: "It's a completely different team this year. You've seen so many games that we've won in so many different ways. That's been the fun part. Down the stretch of games you say, 'I can throw the ball away. We can punt it away in this situation. I don't have to try to make every big throw or fit it into a window.' Those are great situations to be in as a quarterback."

More from Somers: a scouting report for the Cardinals' game against the Rams.

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com offers thoughts on Beanie Wells. He also thinks the Cardinals will not rest starters against the Rams unless the team jumps to a huge lead.

Greg Johns of seattlepi.com says the Seahawks are close to tying the worst road record in franchise history. Getting pressure on Aaron Rodgers would help. Darryl Tapp: "Sacks come in bunches for players and teams. We're just hitting a real dry spell. We've been able to get pressure, we feel like, and make quarterbacks move their feet a little bit, we just haven't been able to get home. As a pass rusher, speaking on behalf of the defensive line, it's frustrating. But you have to keep at it, you know?"

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times says the Seahawks have endured some tough experiences in past visits to Lambeau Field. The team has a 9-21 overall record since losing a playoff game at Lambeau following the 2007 season. O'Neil: "Shaun Alexander played what turned out to be his final game as a Seahawk that night, one of nine Seattle starters in Green Bay no longer with the franchise. Of the 45 players on the active roster for that game, 22 are gone. And more changes undoubtedly are on the way."

Also from O'Neil: "The Seahawks have been outscored 79-37 in the first quarter, their largest disparity of any period this season. They have committed 10 turnovers in the first quarter this year, scored just four touchdowns and kicked five field goals."

Eric D. Williams of the Tacoma News Tribune says Seahawks receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh is mentoring rookie Deon Butler. Butler: "If you were reading about him in the paper and stuff, I’d probably think, 'Wow, this dude is kind of out there.' But if you’re fortunate enough to get to know him, and anyone in this organization -- and other organizations, period -- they know what kind of guy he is. That outspoken guy, that’s just his media talk. If you get to know him, he’s a totally different guy and you’d fall in love with him. A great dude."

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch looks for signs of hope in the Rams' otherwise lost season. Former receiver Ricky Proehl relays comments from Colts president Bill Polian suggesting the Rams aren't as far off as their 1-13 record would suggest. Rams general manager Billy Devaney says Polian made similar comments to him. Devaney: "He grabbed me as they were walking off the field. He grabbed my arm and he said, 'Hey, don't listen to anybody. You guys are doing it the right way. We looked at you all week long [on tape], and you guys are doing it the right way. Stay your course.' "

Also from Thomas: Marc Bulger becomes the 13th Rams player on injured reserve, while the league fines Steven Jackson $5,000.

More from Thomas: key matchups in the Rams-Cardinals game.

More yet from Thomas: a look at the Rams' opponents for 2010. Home: Arizona, San Francisco, Seattle, Atlanta, Carolina, Kansas City, San Diego, Washington. Away: Arizona, San Francisco, Seattle, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Denver, Oakland, Detroit.

Steve Korte of the Belleville News-Democrat says the Rams' return game is better with Danny Amendola.

Jim Rodenbush of the St. Louis Globe-Democrat says the Rams have "dropped 12 consecutive division games and are 1-15 against the NFC West since 2007 and 4-24 since 2005. Their last division win was a 13-9 victory at San Francisco on Nov. 18, 2007."

Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando

Josh from Fontana, Calif., writes: Hey Mr. Sando, my Rams have some needs but have been doing a great job filling them. Now we have the 2nd pick and we should have the two best players in the draft available to us then (Aaron Curry and Michael Crabtree).

I know there are some teams that would do some trading for these guys, giving my Rams some additional picks (hopefully a 1st and an additional 2nd). Now, what teams do you see attempting to do this. Your comments please.

Mike Sando: This question provides an opportunity for a little draft history lesson, courtesy of some research I conducted before the 2008 draft.

Three teams have traded into the top 10 picks since 2003. The moves proved costly in more ways than one.

"Trades are a unique thing in the first round anymore because of the cost of the top 10 picks financially," Indianapolis Colts president Bill Polian said. "To take on that cost, then to give up something to do so, it is almost counterintuitive, and that's clearly not what the draft was designed to be."

In 2003, the Saints sent the 17th and 18th choices as part of a package to Arizona for a package that included the sixth pick. New Orleans drafted Georgia defensive tackle Johnathan Sullivan, who was out of the league after 16 starts and three NFL seasons.

Also in 2003, the Jets traded the 13th and 22nd picks as part of a package to Chicago for the fourth overall choice. The Jets drafted defensive lineman Dewayne Robertson, a durable starter who hasn't become an impact player.

In 2005, Minnesota traded receiver Randy Moss to the Raiders for the seventh and 219th choices, plus linebacker Napoleon Harris. The Vikings used the seventh choice for receiver Troy Williamson.

In other words, the Rams might not find anyone eager to take that second overall choice off their hands. This draft doesn't feature anyone perceived to be a Peyton Manning-type player. For that reason, I'd be a little surprised if someone swooped into that No. 2 spot.

No team since 2003 has traded into the top five picks from lower in the round. I had thought this was the case since 1999. Thanks to Damon Moffa for setting me straight (ever so politely, of course) via Facebook.

(Read full post)

Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando

INDIANAPOLIS -- Coaches and personnel people were streaming from hotels to player interview sessions as the NFL scouting combine continued Thursday night.

I'll describe a five-minute sequence this afternoon to provide a feel for the combine. This all happened while I was finishing a walk from Lucas Oil Stadium to my hotel.

The man crossing the street in the opposite direction? Colts president Bill Polian. The man walking past as I entered the convention center perhaps a minute later? Niners general manager Scot McCloughan. The men walking past while I headed toward a skybridge to the hotel? Seahawks president Tim Ruskell and vice president Ruston Webster. Once inside the hotel, I stood in line at the front desk with a tall man with dark hair. I looked up and it was Seahawks offensive coordinator Greg Knapp. The guy in front of him turned around. It was Seahawks head coach Jim Mora.

That is a personal record for name dropping, but hopefully you get the idea. Walking around these parts is like walking through an NFL theme park.