NFC West: Brit Miller

Peter from Rutland, Vt., points to Anthony Dixon's failed third-and-1 rushing attempt in the NFC Championship Game as one reason the San Francisco 49ers might have signed former New York Giants running back Brandon Jacobs.

This play escaped my attention in the Jacobs item Tuesday. I suspect the play-by-play file I consulted did not encompass the NFC Championship Game.

"Dixon got stuffed by the Giants on a key third-and-1 attempt," Peter recalled. "He danced instead of smashing. That's why they took a chance on Jacobs. Dixon is not a reliable power back."

Perhaps, but Jacobs failed to convert a fourth-and-1 rushing attempt in the same game, and he has never been known for his hard-nosed running.

Dixon converted both of his rushing tries during the regular season when needing a single yard on third or fourth down. He missed that one attempt during the postseason, but Jacobs converted only 4 of 8 regular-season tries and 5-of-11 overall when counting the postseason.

I went back and watched Dixon's failed play just to be sure what happened. Dixon did not set a new standard for powerful running on the play, but neither did he have much room to run.

The 49ers shuffled their offensive line and brought onto the field two defenders, Justin Smith and Isaac Sopoaga, for additional blocking. The line, left to right, featured Vernon Davis, Alex Boone, Adam Snyder, Jonathan Goodwin (center), Mike Iupati, Anthony Davis, Joe Staley and Smith. Sopoaga lined up to the right in an offset-I formation.

The blocking was not very good. Mathias Kiwanuka shed Smith immediately and blocked Dixon's path off tackle. Chris Canty got between Anthony Davis and Staley in time to affect Dixon. Dixon did hesitate and step to the side as he sought an opening. Again, though, the blocking was not great.

While an NFL offense should be able to pick up a third-and-1 on the ground, I've thought the 49ers needed to occasionally break from tendency in these situations, not just with a pass but with a deeper strike to Vernon Davis. Previous 49ers coaching staffs succeeded with this tactic.

The 49ers had beaten the Giants for an 18-yard pass to Delanie Walker on a third-and-1 play when the teams met back in Week 10. Perhaps the 49ers' staff knew the Giants would be ready if they tried another pass. And, as noted, the team should be able to pick up a third-and-1 rushing play.

But with such a heavy formation to the right side, the Giants were ready for Dixon. They also took advantage of the fact that Smith, though a great player, plays defense and isn't a polished blocker.

The chart shows 2011 regular-season conversion stats for NFC West running backs on third and fourth downs with 1 yard needed for a first down. There's a reason teams use quarterback sneaks.
High hopes for Sam Bradford and Kevin Kolb gave way to a largely unanticipated development in 2011: Alex Smith was the best quarterback in the NFC West.

How will Matt Flynn affect the division's quarterback dynamics in 2012?

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times profiles the Seahawks' recently signed prospect, revealing Flynn to be determined and possessing a strong work ethic. O'Neil: "For all the hope and expectation that has been bundled into his acquisition, Flynn has been a starting quarterback for exactly one of the previous nine seasons he has played football. At the age of 26, he has started just 16 games since high school, going 13-3 in those games." Noted: Former Seahawks starter Matt Hasselbeck followed a similar path. He was a backup heading into six of his eight previous seasons when Seattle acquired him in 2001.

Brady Henderson of 710ESPN Seattle notes that an increasing number of mock drafts are sending linebacker Luke Kuechly to the Seahawks in the first round. Noted: Linebacker is a position of need, and Seattle will not have big money invested in the position, even if Leroy Hill and David Hawthorne re-sign.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic says William Gay, signed by the Cardinals after Richard Marshall signed with Miami, could challenge for a starting job. Somers: "Marshall played a valuable role for the Cardinals last season as a part-time starter and as a cornerback and safety in nickel packages. Gay could make similar contributions and should challenge for a starting spot opposite Patrick Peterson. That position is open. Greg Toler and A.J. Jefferson are among other contenders." Noted: Peterson should take a fairly significant step forward. Gay adds welcome experience.

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Rams re-signed one of their top special-teams players, Brit Miller, while losing another, Chris Chamberlain. Thomas: "In varying degrees, the Rams remain in conversation with several free agents who have visited Rams Park recently: offensive guards Chilo Rachal (San Francisco) and Robert Turner (New York Jets), offensive tackle Barry Richardson (Kansas City), outside linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar (New Orleans) and wide receiver Steve Smith (Philadelphia)." Noted: Richardson played every offensive snap for the Chiefs last season.

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com offers this regarding 49ers quarterbacks Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick and Josh Johnson: "I don't see the move to add Johnson as a sign that the 49ers are looking at demoting Smith or Kaepernick. I see it as a move designed to strengthen the position as a whole. The practice and play of the four quarterbacks will determine the order in which the depth chart is stacked at the beginning of the season." Noted: Johnson's ties to Harbaugh make him an intriguing candidate for more than the No. 3 role if Smith departs in another season or two, but those ties do not amount to a free pass. Johnson must prove he belongs.

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee notes that the 49ers' Aldon Smith was sporting a bandaged left hand/wrist during a recent team function. No word yet on the severity of any injury.

Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle gets thoughts on Kaepernick and Johnson from one of their former coaches, Roger Theder. Theder: "I think what Jim is looking for is that work ethic, and I think Josh lost that a little bit at Tampa. He's got it back now because he knows what Harbaugh expects. And Colin’s always had that great work ethic. So I think that’s going to be the deciding factor as far as which guy is the better quarterback."
The San Francisco 49ers have become the hunted in the NFC West.

Having already take aim at their 2011 turnover differential, let us consider another reason for a potential 2012 regression from 13-3.

"Repeating the 2011 relative lack of injuries on the 49ers may be as hard as replicating the turnover ratio," Michael Rally contended via Twitter.

Injuries did slow and/or sideline some of the 49ers' most important players, including running back Frank Gore and linebacker Patrick Willis. Starting receiver Josh Morgan missed most of the season. A freak jaw injury sidelined tight end Delanie Walker late in the season. A hamstring injury slowed defensive end Ray McDonald.

But in looking at injured-reserve lists, the 49ers definitely fared better than their division rivals. They finished the regular season with five players on IR. The other three NFC West teams had a combined 39.

I've broken out the IR lists by team and position, based on where teams stood after Week 17. In some cases, teams released and/or reached injury settlements with players placed on IR previously. Teams usually keep on IR the players they value the most, however. The players listed below are the most relevant ones.

St. Louis Rams (16)

Fullback: Brit Miller

Receiver: Danny Amendola, Mark Clayton, Greg Salas

Tight end: Mike Hoomanawanui

Offensive line: guard Jacob Bell, Rodger Saffold, Jason Smith

Defensive line: Jermelle Cudjo

Linebacker: Josh Hull

Cornerback: Ron Bartell, Bradley Fletcher, Al Harris, Brian Jackson, Marquis Johnson, Jerome Murphy

Comment: Quarterback Sam Bradford was injured much of the year without landing on IR. The Rams ran through several unlisted cornerbacks as well. That position was hit hard. Losing both starting offensive tackles is never good, but Smith wasn't a huge positive factor on the right side. The team was arguably better off without him in the lineup.

Seattle Seahawks (15)

Receiver: Kris Durham, Mike Williams, Sidney Rice

Tight end: John Carlson

Offensive line: John Moffitt, James Carpenter, Russell Okung

Defensive line: Jimmy Wilkerson

Linebacker: Jameson Konz, Matt McCoy, David Vobora, Dexter Davis

Cornerback: Marcus Trufant, Walter Thurmond, Ron Parker

Comment: The Seahawks remained strong against the run largely because their line was healthier this season. Losing three-fifths of the starting offensive line could not stop Marshawn Lynch from producing at a high level. Rookie Richard Sherman capitalized on injuries at cornerback. Good, young depth helped Seattle weather injuries well.

Arizona Cardinals (8)

Quarterback: Max Hall

Running back: Ryan Williams

Offensive line: Brandon Keith, Floyd Womack

Defensive line: Dan Williams

Linebacker: Joey Porter

Cornerback: Crezdon Butler, Greg Toler

Comment: Ryan Williams' knee injury affected the team significantly. The injury situation was worse overall than the list would indicate. Quarterback Kevin Kolb missed seven starts with foot and concussion problems. Running back Beanie Wells played hurt much of the year and had a hard time producing late in the season. Adrian Wilson played through a torn biceps and got better as the season progressed.

San Francisco 49ers (5)

Receiver: Dontavia Bogan, Josh Morgan

Tight end: Nate Byham

Defensive line: Will Tukuafu

Cornerback: Curtis Holcomb

Comment: Byham was a solid blocking tight end. The team missed Morgan, especially late in the year. Gore's production diminished after he suffered an apparent knee injury in Week 10. Overall, though, the 49ers were healthy. They inflicted more injuries than they suffered, knocking out several opposing runners, including Felix Jones, LeGarrette Blount, Jahvid Best, Steven Jackson and Pierre Thomas.

MNF inactives: Rams without Fred Robbins

December, 12, 2011
12/12/11
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SEATTLE -- The St. Louis Rams' inactive list could favor the Seattle Seahawks' run defense.

The Rams will be without veteran defensive tackle Fred Robbins, who was questionable on the injury report and did not practice during the week. Robbins' absence means more playing time for Darell Scott and Gary Gibson.

Also inactive for the Rams: quarterback A.J. Feeley, quarterback Tom Brandstater, running back Quinn Porter, fullback Brit Miller, linebacker Justin Cole and guard Kevin Hughes. Kellen Clemens will serve as the backup quarterback to Sam Bradford.

For Seattle, linebacker David Hawthorne is active. The Seahawks' inactive list features quarterback Josh Portis, safety Jeron Johnson, cornerback Kennard Cox, linebacker Adrian Moten, guard Mike Gibson, guard Paul Fanaika and defensive tackle Pep Levingston.

2011 Rams Week 13: Five observations

December, 12, 2011
12/12/11
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Five things I noticed while watching the St. Louis Rams during their most recent game, a 26-0 defeat at San Francisco in Week 13:
  • One play sums up the Rams. Third-and-1 is generally a power running situation, but not for the Rams. They lined up with receiver Brandon Lloyd in the backfield, behind fullback Brit Miller. Miller took the inside handoff and lost yardage. Right guard Jason Brown blocked no one. Defensive end Ray McDonald blew up the play and rolled up on the back of Jacob Bell's legs, leaving Bell with a season-ending injury.
  • Brandon Lloyd presents a dilemma. The leaping 34-yard sideline grab Lloyd made despite defensive pass interference again showed just how dynamic Lloyd can be as a playmaker. The question is really how much the Rams should consider paying a 30-year-old receiver with one great season on his résumé. The team badly needs a No. 1-type receiver. Lloyd can be that type of player. At what price? And will he have similar value if the Rams have a new offensive scheme next season? So far, Lloyd has flourished under Josh McDaniels, but no one else.
  • The pass rush was not so bad. The Rams showed they can get pressure when they put the opponent in obvious passing situations. A third-and-17 play right before halftime provided one example. Defensive ends Chris Long and Robert Quinn beat the 49ers' tackles with inside moves, converging at the quarterback for a sack credited to Long. It's unusual to see both defensive ends get to the quarterback immediately on a three-man pressure, but the Rams did it on this play. Long had two sacks.
  • Defense needs perimeter speed. Not many players would have immediately tracked down 49ers speedster Ted Ginn Jr. on the fly sweep San Francisco ran around right end in the third quarter. The Rams had no chance. The play reminded me how much the team could use an outside linebacker and/or safety with speed in the draft. After the Ginn play, the 49ers successfully ran tight end Delanie Walker to the other side. Walker faked out one safety, Quintin Mikell, and outran the other, Craig Dahl, to get around the corner.
  • Conventional run defense improved. Yes, the Rams gave up 144 yards rushing on 32 carries, but take a closer look at where the yardage originated. Ginn, Walker and receiver Kyle Williams accounted for 55 of those yards on three carries. Their runs count, of course, but the Rams did hold running back Frank Gore to 3.5 yards per carry. That was a big improvement from the previous week, when Arizona's Beanie Wells gashed them for a franchise-record 228 yards.

Also: five things to watch when the Rams face the Seattle Seahawks on Monday night. I'll be heading over to CenturyLink Field for that one.
SAN FRANCISCO -- The San Francisco 49ers came into Sunday hoping to claim the NFC West title.

Losing linebacker Patrick Willis to a hamstring injury wasn't part of the plan.

The 49ers said Willis' return to the game was doubtful. Willis stayed down after failing to finish an attempted tackle on the perimeter against Rams fullback Brit Miller.

Willis reached back for his leg while on all fours. Medical staff helped him off the field. At least seven doctors/trainers tended to Willis while the Pro Bowl linebacker sat on the bench. Willis rose and walked slowly up and down the bench area, slapping hands with defensive teammates as if to encourage them.

Larry Grant took over for Willis. It's unclear how long Willis might be out. The 49ers have four additional regular-season games. Securing a first-round playoff bye would give Willis a couple extra weeks to get ready, should he need it.

Rams, 49ers and why they're so different

November, 30, 2011
11/30/11
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The preseason NFC West favorite St. Louis Rams take a 2-9 record into Candlestick Park on Sunday.

They will not take their starting offensive tackles or their leading receiver from 2010, and to hear coach Steve Spagnuolo tell it, injuries help explain why the Rams haven't kept pace with the 9-2 San Francisco 49ers this season.

Spagnuolo, speaking to reporters covering the 49ers, said injuries are no excuse. He also said continuity is crucial for teams installing new offenses, as the Rams and 49ers did this season. He said that was especially so coming out of a lockout-shortened offseason.

"We knew there'd be some rough edges, but you'd hope that you'd get to this certain point of the season and those reps underneath your belt would surface and you'd have some success," Spagnuolo said. "I think that’s happened for San Francisco."

The 49ers averaged 213 yards per game over the first three weeks of the season, never exceeding 226. They have averaged 344 yards over the subsequent eight games, despite a season-low 170 during their most recent game, a 16-6 defeat at Baltimore.

"You have a better chance of doing that when you can keep the same the same 11, 12, 13 guys on offense," Spagnuolo said. "We haven’t had that, and again, as a professional football team, professional coaches, professional players, you have to find a way to overcome that and it’s been tough for us to do that."

The Rams averaged 279 yards over their first four games, 349 over their next four, but only 246 over their past three. They are in decline.

St. Louis' offense suffered more significant injuries early in the season. The quadriceps injury Steven Jackson suffered in Week 1 sidelined him for one game and limited him for weeks. Losing 2010 receiving leader Danny Amendola at the same time compounded the problems.

The Rams' preferred personnel group -- Jackson, Brandon Gibson, Amendola, Mike Hoomanawanui and Lance Kendricks -- never played a snap together. The team acquired Brandon Lloyd by trade, explaining why the chart lists 12 projected starters for the Rams. But with Hoomanawanui suffering from injuries before ultimately landing on injured reserve, and with quarterback Sam Bradford missing time with an ankle injury, continuity suffered badly.

The 49ers' preferred offensive personnel group -- Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker -- played extensively together until Morgan's season-ending injury in Week 5. The remaining four continue to play extensively together. Their quarterback, Alex Smith, hasn't lost a snap to injury.

The injury Bradford suffered at Green Bay on the final offensive play in Week 6 came just as the offense had amassed a season-high 424 yards, only to lose 24-3. That injury was a tough setback, but the team won for the first time all season two weeks later -- with backup A.J. Feeley at quarterback against New Orleans.

Injuries are not the only reason for the disparity between St. Louis and San Francisco. They might not be the primary reason.

The 49ers' defense and special teams have taken pressure off their offense. Their offense has made great use of favorable field position. Their offensive line has struggled at times, but the 49ers have developed a power running game the Rams never matched even before injuries undercut their line (Jackson's production largely came on misdirection-type runs from shotgun formations). The Rams' defense has also fallen far short of expectations, buckling against the run in particular.

The 49ers have nearly doubled the Rams in scoring (262-140) despite averaging only 13.1 additional yards per game. Both teams are converting around 30 percent of the time on third down. They average right around 4.2 yards per rushing attempt. The Rams have a slightly lower interception rate.

Both teams have lost starting or primary wide receivers to season-ending injuries. The Rams counted on Amendola more than the 49ers counted on Morgan. But as valuable as Amendola was to the Rams -- he caught 85 passes last season, compared to 44 for Morgan -- the season did not hinge on his availability.

By my count, eight projected Rams starters on offense have missed a combined 25 starts, while two projected 49ers starters have missed a combined eight starts. I've used the word "projected" because those totals reflect only players projected as starters coming into the season. The breakdowns fall this way:
  • Rams: Amendola 10, right tackle Jason Smith 5, tight end Hoomanawanui 3, Bradford 2, left tackle Rodger Saffold 2, Jackson 1, receiver Gibson 1, tight end Kendricks 1.
  • 49ers: Morgan 6, Crabtree 2.

I did not consider fullbacks as starters because both teams' preferred groupings featured a halfback with two tight ends. The 49ers have played most of the season without veteran fullback Moran Norris, but Bruce Miller has grown into the role. The Rams have occasionally started fullback Brit Miller.

Both teams made performance-related changes to their offensive lines. The 49ers benched right guard Chilo Rachal after three games. The Rams benched center Jason Brown more recently.

Injuries have wiped out the Rams' offensive line in recent weeks, but their five projected starters were in the lineup into Week 7, with disappointing results. The 49ers were 5-1 at that point. The Rams were 0-6. Those trends have pretty much held.

Spagnuolo's comments covered the offense. The Rams' problems on defense are a subject for another conversation.

Around the NFC West: Kevin Kolb's return

November, 29, 2011
11/29/11
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Kevin Kolb practiced with the Arizona Cardinals despite his injuries last week, but he did not play Sunday.

That made me wonder whether the team was simply being smart with Kolb or whether other players fighting through their own injuries might wonder what was taking the quarterback so long.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic says this appears to be the week Kolb will return from the toe and foot injuries that have prevented him from playing since Oct. 30. Coach Ken Whisenhunt: "I think we're certainly a lot more optimistic about him being able to go this week. It's really going to depend on where he is Wednesday ... . But he made enough progress last week that you feel good about him being able to do it this week." Noted: Kolb returns in time for the schedule to get much tougher following a four-game stretch featuring three opponents with losing records. By season's end, I suspect Kolb's detractors will point to backup John Skelton's superior win-loss record without noting how badly Skelton has struggled even while the team went 3-1.

Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic says Beanie Wells is showing greater toughness this season.

Neil Hornsby of Pro Football Focus thought left guard Daryn Colledge stood out as one of the Cardinals' best players Sunday. Agreed.

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times offers thoughts on the Seahawks' home defeat against Washington. O'Neil: "It is possible for two starting wide receivers to catch zero passes. It happened to Seattle. We were all witnesses. It's a little misleading because not only did Sidney Rice leave the game because of a head injury, but he caught a screen that was actually a backward pass and ruled a rush. The fact neither Rice nor Mike Williams caught a pass underscored the reality that Seattle is not pushing the ball downfield. The Seahawks' longest completion against Washington was for 24 yards, and that was the only pass to a wide receiver that gained more than 15 yards. Last week in St. Louis, the Seahawks had only two passes to receivers that gained more than 20 yards and one of those was thrown by Rice."

Also from O'Neil: Tarvaris Jackson could be getting worse thanks to his pectoral injury.

Eric D. Williams of the Tacoma News Tribune says Pete Carroll's teams were highly penalized at the college level, too.

Bryan Burwell of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch offers thoughts on Steve Spagnuolo's job security heading into the final month of the 2011 season. Burwell: "The conversation all over town right now is fueled by an assumption that there's nothing Spagnuolo or anyone else out there can do to save jobs or turn this lost season around into something remotely positive. I'm not so sure of that. While I know owner Stan Kroenke is keeping a very close eye on what's already transpired, I keep hearing the same thing over and over again around the Rams Park corridors. He wants to see what lies ahead before he makes any conclusions about who should stay and who needs to go at season's end. It's not automatic that there will be mass organizational head-chopping."

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Rams face a tough finishing schedule.

Kathleen Nelson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Rams' punt-coverage team is hurting. Nelson: "Two players were hurt on Patrick Peterson's return: Jones turned his ankle, and safety Darian Stewart suffered a concussion. Dominique Curry was on the field but playing with what Spagnuolo called a 'slightly dislocated" shoulder. Stalwarts Brit Miller and Chris Chamberlain were missing from the play because of hamstring injuries. Miller ranks third with nine special teams tackles; Chamberlain led the team last year with 19 special-teams tackles."

Also from Nelson: Sam Bradford should be OK despite tweaking his injured ankle.

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com says Alex Smith did not see Delanie Walker wide open for a potential touchdown on the 49ers' first play of the game against Baltimore. Smith: "First play of the game, I'm really thinking, the way the play was designed, getting a completion, get the ball rolling. A little misdirection, get out of the pocket, and as soon as I threw the ball late to Vernon (Davis), I looked up and saw Delanie by himself, and I knew there was potentially a chance there. Now, it was the first play of the game. And you're thinking, 'Ah, I'm going to get a lot of opportunities, and I'll have several more.' But in a game like that, it turns out, looking back, that was a big missed opportunity."

Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle passes along Braylon Edwards' thoughts on the deep ball Edwards did not contest against Baltimore. Edwards: "(Smith) saw one thing, I saw another. That happens from time to time. That probably stems from us not being able to be out there a lot, with my injury. I saw a defensive back playing inside leverage, so I attacked his inside leverage to give myself more room on the outside as well as the quarterback. Alex saw me going inside so he assumed I was going to stay inside. It was a mistake on both parts. We just didn’t get it done and it led to an interception."

Also from Branch: Smith has 21 touchdowns with six interceptions in his last 16 starts.

Closer look at Peterson's 99-yard return

November, 7, 2011
11/07/11
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Patrick Peterson's 99-yard punt return for a touchdown Sunday stands as the second-longest in NFL history. It should stand as the longest, but back in 1994, officials erred in allowing Robert Bailey's 103-yard return for the Los Angeles Rams against New Orleans. Everyone but Bailey appeared to think Tommy Barnhardt's punt had gone out of the end zone for a touchback. So, while the Rams' offensive players and Saints' defensive players walked onto the field, Bailey returned the ball uncontested. League officials later admitted their error, noting that offsetting penalties should have returned the ball to where the infractions occurred, right around the Rams' 15-yard line. There was nothing cheap about Peterson's 99-yarder to beat the St. Louis Rams in overtime. A look back at how it came together:
  • The ball left punter Donnie Jones' foot at the St. Louis 35-yard line.
  • [+] Enlarge
    Patrick Peterson
    AP Photo/Ross D. FranklinArizona is hoping that Patrick Peterson is ready to develop into one of the league's top cornerbacks.
    Peterson positioned himself at the Arizona 10, just outside his left hashmark. Peterson tracked the ball initially, then sneaked a peak at the coverage teams. The Fox hangtime clock read 2.7 seconds at this point. In a split second, Peterson tilted his head upward again to track the ball. Coach Ken Whisenhunt: "To do that, with those guys screaming down the field, is very difficult. That's where he is really special."
  • Peterson moved backward and to his left, settling at about the 3-yard line. That is where he appeared to field the ball. The hangtime clock read 4.3 seconds.
  • Peterson had only his right foot on the ground as he fielded the ball. Rams running back Quinn Porter was at the 9-yard line along the yard-line numbers to Peterson's left. Rams fullback Brit Miller was on the same side of the field between the yard-line numbers and the hash at the 15. Dominique Curry, the Rams' best special-teams coverage player, was between the hashes at the 14. Rams linebacker Chris Chamberlain was between the hashes at about the 22, with Cardinals safety Rashad Johnson running with him step for step nearer the middle of the field, allowing Johnson to shield Chamberlain from Peterson initially.
  • Cardinals cornerback Richard Marshall made the key block, tossing Curry to the ground back near where Peterson fielded the ball. When Curry rolled over and looked up, Peterson was already at the 6-yard line outside the hash on the other side of the field, where Porter and Miller had chased him.
  • Rams defensive lineman C.J. Ah You had run wide enough to force Peterson back to the middle beginning from about the Arizona 3 just outside the Cardinals' right hash. Ah You overran Peterson.
  • Rams safety James Butler was at the 15-yard line to Peterson's right. He came off his block, but missed Peterson at the 17.
  • Chamberlain caught up to Peterson at the 30 just as Peterson was weaving outside the yard-line numbers to his right. Chamberlain dove, but Peterson wasn't there. Chamberlain collided with teammate Eugene Sims, who was also making a diving attempt at a tackle.
  • Jones, the punter, stood at the 35 obstructing Peterson's path. Peterson was still facing forward at his own 29. With Sims reaching for Peterson's ankles and rolling to propel himself along, Peterson rotated clockwise. His back was to the middle of the field at the 31. He was moving backward when he reached the 34. That is where Jones passed by, flailing like a matador. Peterson was facing the middle of the field as he crossed the 37, giving him a clear view of an onrushing Jake McQuaide, the Rams' snapper. McQuaide was already nearing the 40 outside the hash and had the angle. Peterson continued rotating and was facing forward again by the time he reached the 39. The race was on.
  • McQuaide pulled even with Peterson at the St. Louis 46 and for a moment seemed to be within striking distance. If they had been cars on a two-lane highway, McQuaide would have been the guy in the four-door sedan. Peterson, driving the Ferrari, pulled away quickly and was gone. O'Brien Schofield made sure of it, cutting between McQuaide and Peterson at the St. Louis 30.

The game was over. Peterson had scored a touchdown on a punt return for the third time in his first eight NFL games, an NFL record. Only the Denver Broncos' Rick Upchurch has had more touchdowns on punt returns in the first eight games of any NFL season. He had four in 1976.

On the Rams' failed decision to go for it

November, 7, 2011
11/07/11
10:30
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The St. Louis Rams faced fourth-and-1 against the Arizona Cardinals with 1:48 remaining and the score tied Sunday.

They had failed three times in four chances when facing third- or fourth-and-1 earlier in the game, including on the previous play.

They could have attempted a 51-yard field goal with a kicker, Josh Brown, who had made all three attempts in this game. Brown has also hit 15 of 19 field goals from 50-plus yards since signing with St. Louis.

But if Steven Jackson could reach that first-down marker, the Rams would be in position to take time off the clock before attempting the winning field goal from a shorter distance.

Coach Steve Spagnuolo's decision to go for it backfired when the Cardinals prevented Jackson from adding to his 104-yard rushing total to that point in the game. The Rams wound up getting a second chance as regulation expired, but the Cardinals' Calais Campbell blocked their 42-yard attempt, forcing overtime.

And we all know what happened there.

Jackson has now failed to convert a first down on four consecutive rushing plays when the Rams needed one yard on third or fourth downs. Fullback Brit Miller converted once in two such situations Sunday.

"I felt confident in our best football player getting the ball," Spagnuolo told reporters after the game. "There was still time there, they had no timeouts. I was looking to finish the game on a field goal to win. ... Defensively, we had just come off of a series where we were a little bit tired, a little bit worn down. In hindsight, maybe it was a bad decision."

The decision to run additional time off the clock would have made more sense to me if Kurt Warner or another top quarterback were leading the Cardinals' offense. But with John Skelton starting for the fifth time in his career, Arizona did not seem to present an immediate threat. Then again, Spagnuolo had to know the Cardinals were vulnerable against short-yardage rushing plays, having allowed six conversions in eight chances on third-and-1 before Sunday (Arizona's previous opponents had not carried the ball on fourth-and-1).

Hank Gargiulo of ESPN Stats & Information crunched win-probability numbers for the fourth-and-1 decision and concluded neither choice presented a clear advantage.

The numbers favored Spagnuolo's decision over attempting the field goal, 68.8 percent to 62.2 percent, when plugging in Jackson's career conversion rate on fourth-and-1 (80 percent) and Brown's career rate for 50-plus field-goal tries (68.3 percent). But if we paired the NFL average for fourth-and-1 conversions (70 percent) with Brown's 50-plus percentage as a Ram (78.9 percent), the numbers would favor the field goal, 67 percent to 64.3 percent.

Those percentages aren't compelling enough to outweigh all the variables a coach considers when making such a decision. But the Rams' recent short-yardage failures, the presence of an unproven quarterback on the other team, favorable conditions, Brown's solid kicking Sunday and Brown's career percentage from long range would have led me to favor the field-goal try.

The chart lists the Rams' third- and fourth-and-1 rushing plays this season, including what personnel they used on those plays.
Brandon Lloyd's arrival in St. Louis has coincided with Steven Jackson's fuller return to health over the past two weeks.

The offense has gone through quite a transition.

With an assist from Hank Gargiulo of ESPN Stats & Information, I've put together a chart showing how playing time has changed for the Rams' skill players over the last two games.

Some of the changes are injury related (Jackson is healthy, Danny Amendola is on injured reserve). Some are roster related (Lloyd added, Mike Sims-Walker subtracted). Some are a little more complicated (Lance Kendricks seeing the field less frequently).

Of course, A.J. Feeley has taken over for the injured Sam Bradford at quarterback. The offensive line has changed since Adam Goldberg replaced an injured Jason Smith at right tackle.

A few quick thoughts:
  • Rookie Greg Salas is getting significantly more playing time. The team successfully targeted him on a fourth-and-2 play against New Orleans on Sunday. He appears to be gaining momentum. Fellow rookie wideout Austin Pettis has seen his playing time fall.
  • Tight end Michael Hoomanawanui has gained snaps at Kendricks' expense. Kendricks has sometimes struggled with dropped passes, but I haven't figured out for sure why his playing time has diminished. A healthier Hoomanwanui would account for some of the change. The team has run 10 snaps of a grouping with Lloyd, Jackson and all three tight ends.
  • Receiver Danario Alexander was inactive with a hamstring injury against New Orleans. Against Dallas, he played 13 snaps with a group featuring Lloyd, Jackson, Billy Bajema and Hoomanawanui. That five-man combination has played more snaps than any other featuring Lloyd. The runnerup, with 11 snaps, features Brandon Gibson, Kendricks and Salas instead of Bajema, Hoomanawanui and Alexander.
  • Again, this offense remains in transition. We can safely say Lloyd is the focal point at receiver. Salas and Hoomanawanui have been gaining, while Pettis and Kendricks have fallen back some. But the combinations will continue to evolve, particularly once Bradford returns from his high-ankle sprain. Bradford and Kendricks developed a quick connection at training camp.

The chart shows percentages of all offensive plays, whether or not a player was active, sorted by change from the first six weeks.

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2011 Rams Week 8: Five observations

October, 31, 2011
10/31/11
6:50
PM ET
Five things I noticed while watching the St. Louis Rams during their 31-21 victory over the New Orleans Saints in Week 8:
  • Steven Jackson sets the tone. Jackson didn't wait, either. He caught a pass nine seconds into the game and barreled up the left sideline as if looking for someone to punish. Jackson caught the ball at the St. Louis 20-yard line, made a defender miss at the 29, lowered his shoulder into another defender at the 32 and fell forward to about the 40. One of his feet stepped out of bounds accidentally, but Jackson never sought the sideline even when it was clear he wasn't going to gain much more yardage. This type of play will shorten Jackson's career, but it's the only way he knows. Jackson arguably saved the game with a fumble recovery at the New Orleans 3-yard line late in the first half. Rookie receiver Greg Salas lost the ball as the Saints tackled him. Jackson beat two Saints players to the ball for the recovery. A turnover in that situation would have been crushing. Jackson scored on the next play.
  • Steve Spagnuolo was aggressive, too. The Rams went for it on fourth-and-2 from the New Orleans 40 with 9:29 left in the second quarter of a scoreless game. Improved depth at wide receiver made this a more feasible decision. With Brandon Lloyd commanding attention, the Rams ran a pick play for the improving Salas. Feeley set up in the shotgun. Salas was past the first-down marker and wide open on the left. This wound up being a high-percentage play, but one the Rams would have had a hard time executing a few weeks ago. About that improved receiver depth. Lloyd made one of the better catches I've seen this season when the Rams were running their four-minute offense with a 24-14 lead. Lloyd was on the ground along the sideline when he caught the ball less than a foot off the ground to convert a third-and-5. Feeley delivered the ball from inside the right hash at the 21-yard line. Lloyd caught it at the St. Louis 46. Those plays win games.
  • Chris Long affected the game beyond sacks. Saints right tackle Charles Brown struggled against the Rams' defensive end. Long collected three sacks overall, a career high, but those weren't his only impressive plays. Long beat Brown to the inside with a strong move late in the first quarter, forcing a dump pass to the fullback, which Chris Chamberlain smothered. Late in the first half, Long used a spin move to get pressure on a pass teammate Craig Dahl nearly intercepted. Long beat Brown to the outside for a sack on the next play. Long used a power move to beat Brown and deflect Brees' third-down pass on the next play. Rookie defensive end Robert Quinn blocked the ensuing punt. The Rams' defensive linemen were relentless.
  • The Saints' longest play covered 25 yards. They rank sixth in the league with 30 pass plays of at least 20 yards, but had only two such plays Sunday, one of them in garbage time. The combination of a strong Rams pass rush and better-than-expected coverage was in play. Drew Brees had to be surprised by what he saw. These weren't the same Rams.
  • The Rams mixed up the ground game. The Rams' two longest plays were runs. Jackson had a 32-yarder behind fullback Brit Miller. Later, Jackson gained 20 yards after the Rams motioned him into a previously empty backfield from the left side of the formation, then ran him to the right behind two tight ends. Billy Bajema locked up linebacker Scott Shanle, turning him to the inside on the 20-yarder. The Rams' tight ends were better in this game.

I made it through the game without too many notes on Adam Goldberg, who was filling in for Jason Smith at right tackle. That's good for the Rams. Goldberg seemed to fare pretty well in pass protection.

Three things revisited: Rams-Chiefs

August, 26, 2011
8/26/11
11:10
PM ET

Looking back on three things discussed here before the St. Louis Rams' 14-10 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs on Friday night:

1. Run defense. Teams playing with purpose during the exhibition season often look very good. The Rams, unhappy with their performance against Tennessee last week, resembled such a team early in this game. They allowed no rushes longer than 4 yards in the first half. They sent linebacker Ben Leber, safety Craig Dahl and safety Quintin Mikell on blitzes. Cornerbacks Bradley Fletcher and Ron Bartell were hitting hard, too. This was the sort of defensive performance the Rams were seeking from their starting unit, against the run and everything else. Leber at halftime, courtesy of the Rams: "The defense is looking good right now. We had the one sudden change and we responded great. Overall, we’ve been in some good situations, some tough situations, and we’ve responded. I think the defense is playing good right now."


2. Offensive consistency. The Rams opened with 12- and 10-play drives for touchdowns. They established running back Steven Jackson early. Jackson, a non-factor against the Titans last week, carried 15 times for 72 yards in a performance that should serve as a tune-up for the regular season. The Rams were determined to get him going. Although new coordinator Josh McDaniels generally prefers a one-back offense, the Rams used fullback Brit Miller extensively, and with positive results. Quarterback Sam Bradford used the running game to beat the Chiefs with play-action passes, including a 6-yard scoring pass to receiver Mike Sims-Walker. Bradford did throw an interception deep in Rams territory when he didn’t see Chiefs linebacker Derrick Johnson dropping into coverage. Bradford completed nine of 16 passes for 95 yards with two touchdowns and one pick. Jackson: "Overall, we look good. I think we’ve been able to execute in the running game and the passing game. Last week, we had some up and down possessions, but this week we wanted to re-establish ourselves."


3. Wide receiver competition. Sims-Walker made an impact with his 6-yard scoring reception. Rookie Greg Salas made a positive impression with a reception across the middle for a first down. We saw, again, just how much Lance Kendricks will figure into the passing game. The rookie tight end caught another touchdown pass, this one an 11-yarder. But the focus remains on the wide receiver race. Donnie Avery, Mardy Gilyard and Danario Alexander are the three receivers I’ve singled out as likely fighting for a spot if the team keeps six at the position. None seemed to get much separation in this game, either from defenders or from each other. Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk, providing commentary on the Rams’ broadcast, found fault with Alexander on two incomplete passes late in the first half. The way Faulk saw things, Alexander didn’t anticipate the ball well enough coming out of his break. Faulk thought Alexander rounded off another route, allowing the defensive back to make a play on the ball. Gilyard found little running room on punt returns and fielded one inside the 10, usually a no-no. The Chiefs picked off Rams backup A.J. Feeley on a pass intended for Avery. Faulk suspected Avery tipped off his route.
Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times weighs Red Bryant's impact on the Seahawks' defense. O'Neil: "There might not be a bigger player on Seattle's defense than Bryant, something as figuratively true as it is literally accurate. The 6-foot-4, 330-pound defensive end's presence made all the difference in the run defense last year." Earlier: What losing Bryant and Colin Cole meant to the Seahawks' run defense last season.

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com says the team is excited about Josh Pinkard's prospects at strong safety in the next preseason game. Starter Kam Chancellor will not play. Farnsworth: "With Kam Chancellor sidelined by a sore foot, Pinkard will start at strong safety in Saturday night’s preseason game against the Broncos in Denver. If his performance on the practice field this week -- and especially today -- is any indication, the second-year safety is ready for the challenge and the opportunity."

Also from Farnsworth: The Seahawks' tight ends can do pretty much everything.

Eric D. Williams of the Tacoma News Tribune says Pinkard overcame three ACL injuries while at USC. Williams: "Pinkard is part of a fierce battle for a roster spot at safety that includes veteran Atari Bigby, along with fifth-round draft pick Mark LeGree and undrafted free agent Jeron Johnson." It'll be tough to keep Johnson off the roster based on what we've seen to this point.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic sizes up the Cardinals as the team breaks training camp. On Kevin Kolb: "Kolb has been everything coaches hoped. His physical skills are obvious, but he's also picked up the offensive system quickly, and his teammates like him. Keeping him healthy is paramount."

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com updates the team's injury situation heading into the third preseason game. Urban: "Coach Ken Whisenhunt wouldn’t rule out anyone for Saturday’s game save for cornerback Michael Adams (knee), although he acknowledged quarterback John Skelton (ankle) was unlikely to go (and Adrian Wilson, of course, won’t be out there.) There are some question marks. Rookie receiver DeMarco Sampson tweaked his hamstring Wednesday and sat out Thursday. Tight end Rob Housler (groin) is getting better but he missed a second straight day."

Also from Urban: Defensive coordinator Ray Horton will spend game days in the booth, not on the sideline. That is the plan for now after Horton tested out both options during preseason. Horton: "When you are up there you can evaluate everything yourself. I just wanted to explore all avenues, and make sure there wasn’t a better way to do something."

More from Urban: wrapping up Cardinals camp. Patrick Peterson: "As a rookie, I don’t think I have had enough of the NFL experience. It’s a business and you have to move on, and (the season) is up on us right now."

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch runs through the Rams' roster with an eye toward which players are likely to earn roster spots. He's putting Donnie Avery in the "safe and sound" category, with rookies Austin Pettis and Greg Salas fighting for roster spots. I'd be mildly surprised if the Rams cut one of their rookie draft choices at the position. I could also see the Rams keeping their eye out for a veteran interior offensive lineman.

Also from Thomas: a look at Pettis and Salas. Thomas: "Normally, a third- and fourth-round pick is bulletproof during the cutdowns as rookies in this age of the salary cap. Unless the player is injured or an outright disaster, teams don't want to swallow the signing bonus by cutting the player. With the new rookie pay system in effect, the signing bonuses are lower this year across the board. But lower enough to make it easier to cut a mid-round draft pick? Probably not."

More from the Post-Dispatch: five things to watch in the Rams' third preseason game, including safety Darian Stewart.

Nick Wagoner of stlouisrams.com says there's a good chance Ben Leber, Brady Poppinga and Stewart will start the preseason game against Kansas City.

Also from Wagoner: The Rams are seeking greater consistency in their next preseason game.

More yet from Wagoner: keys to the Kansas City game.

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com explains why Jim Harbaugh wants the 49ers to get first-team reps for backup quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Harbaugh: "Just looking forward to what's going to happen during the season, I'd rather have Colin ready and experience football with the starters, against the starters and National Football League savvy before we have to get to that point."

Also from Maiocco: Braylon Edwards has made an effort to develop a rapport with 49ers quarterback Alex Smith. It's less clear whether Smith and Michael Crabtree have connected well enough. Their lockers are much closer in proximity this season.

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee says Brit Miller could beat out Moran Norris as the 49ers' starting fullback. Barrows: "The 49ers have three options. They can keep Norris and not Miller, a seventh-round pick. They can keep both Miller and Norris, or they can keep the rookie and cut the veteran. Miller is faster and more fluid than Norris, 33, and would allow the 49ers to be more versatile on offense. Norris, however, has more experience at what a fullback primarily needs to be good at -- blocking." Norris is the oldest player on one of the NFL's youngest offenses.

Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle says Chilo Rachal gave up burgers for salmon in his efforts to improve his conditioning for the 2011 season. Branch: "Rachal has already met one goal: At 304 pounds, he's certainly lighter. He lost about 10 pounds during the course of the 2010 season and dropped about 30 more during the offseason, thanks to a diet loaded with fish and grilled chicken. In an effort to avoid In-N-Out runs, he paid a company to deliver his health-conscious food daily. Rachal says his extreme makeover has relieved his once-aching joints."

Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News says it's pretty clear Ahmad Brooks will win a starting job.

Grant Cohn of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat says Kaepernick's footwork appears to be improving.
Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com says the 49ers' interest in bringing back Alex Smith leaves the team with many of the same questions it faced a year ago. Some of the answers are different this time. A year ago, the team was hoping stability at offensive coordinator would help Smith blossom into a solid starter. The backup heading into the season, David Carr, wasn't part of the long-term equation. It was Smith or bust for the 49ers. This year, the team still hopes Smith plays well, of course, but adding rookie Colin Kaepernick gives the 49ers a young prospect to develop. The team has a plan beyond Smith, changing how Smith's return should be analyzed.

Also from Maiocco: Kaepernick and Carr joined Smith for recent workouts.

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee updates workout plans for the 49ers' 2011 draft choices.

More from Barrows: The 49ers' later-round picks live modestly while waiting out the lockout. Teams would normally provide basic needs for players during portions of the offseason, but not during the lockout.

Tom FitzGerald of the San Francisco Chronicle profiles 49ers first-round pick Aldon Smith, who played hurt at Missouri. FitzGerald: "Smith would like to work for the Drug Enforcement Agency when his pro football days are done, giving the law a pair of extremely long arms. Friends and family members say he has a fine singing voice and plays the drums for the church choir. It's also known that his pain threshold is very high, he's very loyal to his teammates and enjoys football so much that a broken leg is just an annoyance."

Eric Branch of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat says injury concerns allowed two 49ers draft choices, Kendall Hunter and Ronald Johnson, to remain available longer.

Also from Branch: The 49ers appear confident in their coaches' abilities based on how the team selected in the first three rounds, draft analyst Rob Rang said.

Bill Coats of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says Rams tight end Mike Hoomanawanui has high hopes for the team's offense under new coordinator Josh McDaniels. Hoomanawanui was one of the Ram's more impressive young players when healthy last season, but injuries sidelined him for stretches. Hoomanawanui: "Hopefully, I got my injuries out of the way my first year and I won't have to deal with that again. It's great to get back out here (during player-organized workouts) and see all the guys and get some team camaraderie going again. Obviously, everybody knows the situation (with the NFL lockout). Hopefully, we can get it settled soon and get back on the field with everybody."

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says Rams fullback Brit Miller is nearly five months into rehab on his way back from a torn ACL. He can sprint and is starting to work on changing direction. Miller: "That's kind of the final phase of the rehab on ACLs. I hope to get a full season this year, really prove what I can do at fullback. I know (fullback) is not a huge part of what every team does, but I want to be the best at whatever we do. So I look at it as one position: fullback/special teams." McDaniels has sometimes wanted his fullback types to project as runners when needed. Miller did not project as a runner before the injury he suffered against San Francisco late last season.

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com says Leon Washington made a big enough dent in the team's records for return specialists to rank among the best in franchise history after only one season. Farnsworth: "Washington’s time obviously will come. In one season, he broke the game, season and career records for scoring returns -- which had been one, across the board. His 253 return yards against the Chargers broke the single-game record that had been held by Maurice Morris (231), and his 63.3-yard average in that game obliterated the previous record of 42.8 yards by Charlie Rogers. Washington also produced 1,461 yards for the season -- roughly half the career total of 2,843 by Morris, who ranks third behind Broussard (3,900) and Rogers (3,214); and third on the single-season list behind Josh Wilson (1,753) and Rogers (1,629)." To what degree will new kickoff rules prevent Washington from making an impact in the future?

Liz Mathews of 710ESPN Seattle passes along comments from Seahawks rookie safety Mark LeGree, who appeared on John Clayton's radio show Saturday. LeGree: "Even if I don't get a starting spot, I'm going to make the guy ahead of me work for his spot. On special teams? I love special teams. I know how big a part of the game it is, it can change a game in just one play. I am looking forward to the opportunity to be able to start. I'm a playmaker and I can go get that ball."

Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic checks in with Cardinals guard Rex Hadnot, who has been working out with teammates and could replace the retiring Alan Faneca in the starting lineup. Hadnot on participating in player-organized workouts: "It's helping out a tremendous amount. Me being a guy who came in last year, I'm continuing to bond with my new teammates. It's given us all a chance to work together as a team and when you see guys putting the work in, it should give you a better appreciation of what each and every man goes through on a consistent basis to try and prepare themselves for an NFL season. I'm excited about what we're doing under the circumstances."
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