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NFC West thoughts as NFL free agency runs through its second day:

• The Seattle Seahawks' free-agent visit with Steve Hutchinson calls attention to the team's situation at left guard. Robert Gallery's $5 million salary and $1.5 million bonus represent a steep price. If the Seahawks are going to pay $6.5 million for a left guard in 2012, Hutchinson would appear to be the better value. Re-signing Paul McQuistan for depth at guard and tackle could also make sense. Update: The Seahawks have announced Gallery's release and McQuistan's re-signing.
• Free-agent quarterback Chad Henne canceled his visit to the Seahawks after reaching an agreement on a contract with Jacksonville. Seattle still plans to meet with Matt Flynn, but the team has proven it will show restraint at the position when dealing with unproven prospects. That was the case last offseason when Seattle resisted acquiring Kevin Kolb. Flynn fits into a similar category.
• The San Francisco 49ers continue to consider a long list of options at wide receiver. Brandon Lloyd, Chaz Schilens and Mario Manningham are possibilities. Eddie Royal could become an option as well, Matt Barrows reports. The 49ers obviously hope to cover themselves at the position in free agency, taking off pressure to target any one position early in the draft.
• Former 49ers guard/tackle/center Adam Snyder gives the Cardinals improved depth on their offensive line. Losing him can be a positive for the 49ers if it forces them to seek an upgrade at the position. Veteran players such as Snyder are easy to coach. Sometimes teams get comfortable with them at the expense of upgrading. The 49ers came out OK last offseason after losing center David Baas to the Giants.
• The Seahawks and St. Louis Rams both have interest in former Tennessee Titans defensive lineman Jason Jones. Jones struggled at defensive end last season. He would play tackle with the Rams or Seahawks. St. Louis has the greater need. Seattle could use Jones as depth behind Red Bryant and as an inside pass-rusher.
• Seahawks linebacker David Hawthorne plans to visit New Orleans. The Saints should know him well. Hawthorne had a combined 21 tackles and one interception against New Orleans in two games during the 2010 season (one in postseason). He faced the Rams six times when new Saints defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo was head coach in St. Louis. Hawthorne is an NFL success story as an undrafted free-agent-turned-starter. Seattle needs help at linebacker whether or not Hawthorne returns. K.J. Wright can move from the strong side to the middle if needed.
• The Cardinals remain largely in a holding pattern while awaiting a decision from Peyton Manning. Other veteran free-agent quarterbacks are signing deals around the league. That's no big deal for Arizona if the Cardinals are comfortable paying a $7 million bonus to keep Kolb. But if Manning signs elsewhere and Arizona wants to sign a cheaper alternative to Kolb, the pickings could be slim. Matt Hasselbeck comes to mind if Manning lands in Tennessee.
• The Rams' interest in former Houston Texans tackle Eric Winston has led to a potential visit.

Thanks for coming along.

The Seattle Seahawks did not rush into NFL free agency determined to land a quarterback at any cost.

Unable to get Peyton Manning's attention to this point, they appear comfortable letting a soft quarterback market come to them. Matt Flynn (Green Bay) and Chad Henne (Miami) are two free agents the team plans to meet with later in the week, ESPN's Adam Schefter reports.

Neither Flynn nor Henne appears likely to receive starting money from the team. Both would presumably compete with incumbent Tarvaris Jackson if brought onto the roster.

Free agency opened amid questions about how the NFL would value Flynn. With teams awaiting a decision from Manning, the market could be suffering from paralysis. But if Flynn were viewed universally as a franchise quarterback, the Packers might have traded him a year ago or named him their franchise player to facilitate a trade this offseason.

The Seahawks showed last offseason a reluctance to commit starting money to an unproven quarterback. That explained why they were content watching Arizona acquire Kevin Kolb from Philadelphia and hand him a $10 million signing bonus. A year later, Kolb remains unproven while the Cardinals, having already invested $12 million in Kolb, decide whether to pay him another $8.5 million in salary and bonuses for the upcoming season.

Quarterbacks often have more value before teams have seen them play extensively. That was the case with Kolb last offseason. It could be the case with Flynn. Henne, meanwhile, has played enough for teams to realize he probably isn't a long-term solution. He has 31 touchdowns, 37 interceptions and a 13-18 starting record, all with Miami.

The Arizona Cardinals, aggressive in free agency one year ago, watched from the sideline Tuesday while other teams signed players.

They had fewer perceived needs, for one, but they also needed to know whether Peyton Manning planned to sign with them.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic says the team will remain in a holding pattern until the Manning situation gains clarity. Their approach to creating room under the salary cap hung in the balance. Somers: "If he picks the Cardinals, the team likely will let Kevin Kolb go, saving itself from paying the bonus [$7 million to Kolb by Friday]. If Manning chooses another team by then, the Cardinals probably will keep Kolb and pay the bonus. If Manning hasn't picked a team by then, the Cardinals have a difficult choice. Do they let Kolb go and gamble that they will get Manning? How confident would they be entering the season with John Skelton and Rich Bartel as the only quarterbacks on the roster? Or, do they keep Kolb and end their pursuit of Manning?" Noted: Kolb would obviously be out if the team signed Manning. But the bonus payment is large enough to raise questions independent of any decision Manning makes. Paying the bonus would be more difficult if the Cardinals werent' sure whether Kolb would be better than backup John Skelton, who is scheduled to earn $490,000 in salary for the 2012 season.

Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Rams' needs transcend any one position. Also: "I don't think Gregg Williams' status will impact free agency. By now it seems obvious that the NFL will wallop Williams hard with a lengthy suspension. Even with the bounty-system scandal, Williams is popular, and will remain popular, among NFL defensive players that have worked for him. Sure, that could be a selling point. But it's not as if the Rams have a coaching staff of wallflowers out there. Fisher, Dave McGinnis and other assistants, including Chuck Cecil, are live wires. They'll have no problem creating the kind of jacked-up, tough-guy mindset that appeals to defensive players. And if McGinnis takes over as defensive coordinator, let's just remember that he's always been a respected and admired coach in the league. And we'll say it one more time: money tends to buy loyalty."

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Rams' were aggressive in landing Cortland Finnegan, but the situation at receiver remained unsettled. He says the Rams were trying to set up a visit with Robert Meachem before the free-agent wideout from New Orleans reached agreement with San Diego.

Jeff Gordon of stltoday.com looks at recent Rams roster moves.

Howard Balzer of 101ESPN St. Louis updates the Rams' outlook in free agency. Balzer: "The Rams are expecting a visit Thursday from Detroit quarterback Shaun Hill and possibly tackle Eric Winston, who was released Tuesday by the Houston Texans."

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times says the Seahawks' apparent interest in Chad Henne came as a surprise. O'Neil: "Henne, 26, is scheduled to visit Jacksonville before departing for Seattle, where he's expected to arrive Wednesday. Henne had a 13-18 record as the starting quarterback the past three seasons in Miami."

Also from O'Neil: What is David Hawthorne worth to Seattle? O'Neil: "Maybe the Seahawks plan to go young at that position. K.J. Wright -- a fourth-round pick last year -- is the only starting linebacker currently under contract for 2012, and then there's Malcolm Smith, a seventh-round pick who runs well, but has had trouble staying healthy. In two years, we've seen that Seattle is willing to tighten its belt and make changes, but we haven't seen what kind of linebackers the Seahawks want to invest in and keep around. In that regard, Hawthorne's free agency is something worth watching."

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com offers a quick free-agency scorecard for the San Francisco 49ers. Maiocco: "The 49ers' defense appears to be set with the late push Tuesday night to re-sign cornerback Carlos Rogers. ... The only change to the lineup in 2012 is the anticipated promotion of outside linebacker Aldon Smith to take Parys Haralson's starting job at right outside linebacker. General manager Trent Baalke said the 49ers plan for Smith, a pass-rush specialist as a rookie in 2011, to take a full-time role."

Also from Maiocco: various 49ers notes, including one about special-teams ace Blake Costanzo, who signed with Chicago. Maiocco: "The 49ers want their special-teams players to be able to play defense, too, and the personnel department did not consider Costanzo as an option at inside linebacker, if he were needed behind Patrick Willis or NaVorro Bowman."

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee runs through the 49ers' first day of free agency. Barrows: "Day One of free agency began and ended without a deal for quarterback Alex Smith, another player the team wants back. For the first time since the 49ers drafted him in 2005, Smith has no formal contract or deal in hand with them, although there is a three-year offer on the table. Team president Jed York on Monday seemed confident the two sides would reach a compromise but said the 'ball's in his court,' an indication the 49ers feel Smith and his representatives are the ones holding up a contract."

Ten thoughts as NFL free agency moves through its sixth hour:

• Red Bryant's re-signing in Seattle stands as the biggest NFC West-related signing to this point, trailed by Josh Morgan's departure from San Francisco to Washington. News on the quarterback front remains slow. If the Seahawks consider former Miami starter Chad Henne, they will not be talking big money.
• The Chaz Schilens market should be fascinating to watch unfold over the next month. Alas, for all the hype surrounding the few big-name free agents hitting the NFL market Tuesday, lesser-known role players such as Schilens are carrying much of the conversation in this division. Schilens, a part-time starter in Oakland with 72 catches over four seasons, visited Arizona and plans to visit San Francisco.
• San Francisco appears increasingly justified for signing Randy Moss as free-agent options dissipate. We can remove Vincent Jackson's name from the list of prominent receivers potentially under consideration; he's headed to Tampa Bay on a five-year deal. Pierre Garcon is also off the market, having joined Morgan in reaching agreement with the Redskins. The chart below shows current and recent 49ers receivers, ranked from oldest to youngest. Moss and Michael Crabtree could use some company.
• Deals for Jackson and other wideouts stand to affect Mike Wallace's asking price, but market conditions are far less favorable for restricted free agents. Wallace, arguably the NFL's top deep threat, remains available for any team willing to make an offer the Steelers would not match. The signing team would have to part with a first-round pick. The 49ers appear less likely to do so after signing Moss.
• Jim Thomas is pointing to Tennessee's Cortland Finnegan as the Rams' top priority at cornerback in free agency. That means the 49ers' Carlos Rogers is not the Rams' top priority at the position, despite Rogers' ties to Rams defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. What is the market for Rogers? Might the 49ers sign him in the future? They appear to be moving on at the position, though it's too early to say for certain. Update: The Rams have agreed to terms with Finnegan, Adam Schefter reports.
• The Cardinals, having done well to land Daryn Colledge in free agency last offseason, are in the market for another guard. The Titans' Jake Scott is visiting, Thomas and Kent Somers note. Scott turns 31 next month and has started 120 consecutive regular-season games, the second-longest streak for an active guard. Scott played at Idaho while Colledge, 30, was at Boise State.
• Looks like Seattle and St. Louis have interest in Titans defensive tackle Jason Jones. The Rams would presumably have the inside track. Jones played for new Rams coach Jeff Fisher. St. Louis also has the greater need. The Rams are starting over at defensive tackle.
• It's tough to know for sure just how hard teams are chasing after certain players. Agents tend to err on the side of overstatement while attempting to build markets for their clients. Too frequently, the same goes for contract figures. Arizona's Kevin Kolb supposedly received $21 million in "guaranteed" money last offseason, but if the Cardinals cut him this week, he'll leave with $12 million -- great money for one partial season as a starter, but not $21 million.
• The Seahawks could not justify naming tight end John Carlson their franchise player, but re-signing him would give them very good depth at the position. The fact that Carlson visited Kansas City right away shows he's eager to check out opportunities elsewhere, however.
• The Rams have so far held onto 2009 first-round pick Jason Smith. They could keep him, but with Houston unexpectedly releasing Eric Winston, the Rams will visit with him, Schefter reports. The Rams could do much worse than having Winston and Harvey Dahl on the right side.

Now, on to the chart showing 49ers wide receivers with the team currently or in the recent past ...

No one knows for sure whether Andrew Luck is the next great NFL quarterback, the next first-round bust or something in between.

For now, the Stanford quarterback projects as the franchise-saving reward for some poor NFL team careening through an otherwise lost 2011 season.

But what if the team holding the No. 1 overall choice already has a franchise quarterback?

Four of the five teams with no more than one victory this season fall into that category, as the chart explains. I suspect Peyton Manning's age and injury situation would compel Indianapolis to draft a quarterback first overall if given the opportunity, but what if the St. Louis Rams held the top pick?

The Rams already invested millions in Sam Bradford. They like him very much despite what has been a rough second season for him. But if the team continues losing in a noncompetitive fashion, changes could sweep through Rams Park. New leadership could, in theory, seek a fresh start across the board -- including at quarterback.

Blasphemy, right? Hear me out.

While keeping Bradford and trading the No. 1 overall pick sounds attractive in theory, teams drafting lower could call the Rams' bluff. They could wait until draft day, then maneuver for the second overall choice, betting against the Rams taking another quarterback.

The Rams' 0-6 start has exposed holes throughout their roster. They need additional draft choices to restock a depth chart featuring too many Al Harris and Ben Leber types. Bradford would fetch quite a few picks from a team needing a quarterback.

Contract-wise, Luck would cost about half as much as Bradford cost, thanks to the new labor deal. When it comes to the salary cap, where there's a will, there's a way.

Under this scenario, the Rams could trade Bradford outside the division and even outside the conference. Cleveland would rank atop my list of destinations. Browns executive Mike Holmgren values quarterbacks, and he has additional picks from the draft-day trade with Atlanta. Browns coach Pat Shurmur was Bradford's coordinator in 2010, so Bradford could make a smooth transition to an offense he knows well.

It's a lot to digest, but time is on our side. We're still 182 days from the 2012 draft. The chart below shows the five teams with fewer than two victories.

In one month's time, we've gone from discussing the St. Louis Rams' playoff prospects to how they might handle the first pick in the 2012 NFL draft.

The chances suddenly appear very real. The Rams are 0-4 heading into their bye week. Their top receiver and top three cornerbacks are out for the season. Their remaining receivers lead the NFL in dropped passes. Their offensive line and defensive front seven aren't meeting expectations. Their quarterback is on pace to absorb 72 sacks, three shy of the NFL record.

Amid those troubling indicators, the Rams visit Green Bay and Dallas before returning home for a game against New Orleans. They then play two more games on the road before a four-game stretch of NFC West matchups. They have a road game against Pittsburgh later in the year.

Six division games in the final nine weeks still might save the Rams, but if the Arizona Cardinals could go 1-5 against the NFC West in 2010, which they did, the Rams in their current state could finish in that range.

To the point: The Rams already have 2010 No. 1 overall choice Sam Bradford on their roster. They're not in the market for a quarterback. They would have some thinking to do if sitting atop the 2012 draft with Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck available.

Let's get this conversation going.

Matt from Tucson, Ariz., asks whether the Seattle Seahawks would move to acquire the first pick from St. Louis.

Mike Sando: Yes, the Seahawks would certainly consider that type of move for a quarterback, in my view. I just do not see the Rams helping a division rival land a franchise quarterback. Instead, if the Rams traded the pick, I would look for them to deal it to an AFC team located far, far away. Miami?

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Tim from Olympia, Wash., asks whether the Rams would consider trading Bradford if they entered the 2012 draft in position to draft Andrew Luck.

Mike Sando: Interesting concept. I question whether that would work very well from a salary-cap standpoint. I do not think the Rams' current leadership would consider making that move. If new leadership were in place, anything could be possible. But an organization cannot casually consider trading its franchise quarterback without risking its relationship with that player. The team would have to know for certain it could get a deal done.

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William from Bloomington, Ind., isn't ready to give up on the Rams just yet given their second-half schedule, but he wonders what the team could expect the top pick to fetch. He notes that the Atlanta Falcons gave up quite a bit in moving up to the sixth pick in 2011.

Mike Sando: The Falcons paid such a high price because they were moving up from so far down in the draft order (27th overall). Any team moving up for Luck would likely be doing so from nearer the top of the order. Still, the price would have to be high. Multiple teams could be bidding, as well.

San Diego, having whiffed on Ryan Leaf in 1998, traded the first pick of the 2001 draft to Atlanta for the fifth pick, the 67th pick, a second-rounder the next year and receiver Tim Dwight. The Falcons then took Michael Vick. Rams general manager Billy Devaney had already left the Chargers when that deal went down.

The Cleveland Browns picked first overall in 2000, one season after making quarterback Tim Couch the top pick. That was an odd situation, however, because the 2000 draft featured no quarterbacks taken before Chad Pennington at No. 18. The Browns took defensive end Courtney Brown first overall.

The Indianapolis Colts picked fourth overall in 1999, a year after they took Peyton Manning first overall. Quarterbacks went 1-2-3 before the Colts made Edgerrin James the fourth player taken in that 2000 class.

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Rob from Augusta, Ga., asks whether Josh McDaniels' hiring in St. Louis has done more harm than good because the personnel was acquired for another system. He thought a conservative, West Coast system helped the Rams compete in 2010, and he fears the team will need years to build its roster for McDaniels' more aggressive approach. He also thinks it's clear the Rams needed to pursue a top-flight receiver more aggressively.

Mike Sando: The Rams did not want to change coordinators. Pat Shurmur's departure forced the Rams to make a choice. They could promote continuity by hiring someone familiar with the system Shurmur was running. Or, they could search for the best candidate they could find, regardless of system. They chose the latter approach with an eye toward the longer term because they thought McDaniels was an excellent candidate.

This was before the lockout, at a time when teams did not know how the offseason would unfold. The Rams' thinking seemed sound at the time. In retrospect, I don't think the offense would be dramatically better had the team gone with someone else at coordinator. Injuries have played a significant role in the Rams' struggles.

Your thinking at wide receiver makes sense. The Rams were among the few who thought they were OK at the position in terms of top-end talent. McDaniels had gotten good production from Brandon Lloyd in Denver, counter to outside expectations, so there was some thought he might coax similar production from players already on the Rams' roster. While Danny Amendola was the one receiver he could least afford to lose, it's fair to say the Rams failed to sufficiently protect themselves at a position decimated by injuries in 2010.

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Mackay from Pleasant Grove, Utah, thought the Arizona Cardinals failed to use play-action passes against the New York Giants even though Beanie Wells was on his way to a 27-carry, 138-yard performance. He would expect play-action passes to help Kevin Kolb, but wonders whether lack of success has steered the Cardinals away from using that tactic.

Mike Sando: It's a little early in the season to draw conclusions from the Cardinals' use of play-action passes. This is an area to monitor as the season progresses.

Kolb completed 4 of 7 passes for 78 yards and one interception against the Giants on play-action passes, according to ESPN Stats & Information. He has completed 12 of 22 passes for 231 yards with one touchdown, one interception and two sacks on play-action plays this season. Twenty-four quarterbacks have more play-action attempts than Kolb this season. Fourteen quarterbacks have at least 30 attempts.

Kolb ranks 24th in Total QBR (52.9) and NFL passer rating (87.5) on play-action passes this season. His yards per attempt on these throws, 10.5, ranks fifth in the league behind Matt Stafford, Matt Schaub, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo and Chad Henne. But four of those players (all but Henne) are completing at least 75 percent of these passes. Kolb is at 54.5 percent, which ranks 26th among the 32 quarterbacks with more than 10 such attempts.

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Colin from Santa Rosa, Calif., agrees that San Francisco 49ers linebacker NaVorro Bowman has stood out this season, but he says this doesn't reflect poorly on teammate Patrick Willis. "It doesn't seem like Willis has stepped back at all," he writes. "Takeo Spikes isn't there eating up blocks, so Willis is having to take on more of that duty, and offenses are targeting Willis with more resources anyway, freeing up Bowman."

Mike Sando: One question would be to what degree the 49ers' new defense in combination with Bowman's abilities has affected what the team asks from its inside linebackers. I appreciate your points and will explore this subject in greater detail as the season progresses.

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Terrell from San Francisco likes what he sees from the 49ers' front seven, but he thinks the team needs a playmaking safety to pair with Willis, giving San Francisco something along the lines of what Baltimore has enjoyed with Ray Lewis and Ed Reed working together.

Mike Sando: The 49ers had a chance to add a playmaking safety in the 2010 draft, but they traded up for right tackle Anthony Davis instead of drafting free safety Earl Thomas. The 49ers then used their second-round choice for safety Taylor Mays. I see absolutely no way to justify those decisions based on what we've seen from those players so far.

The 49ers' efforts to upgrade their offensive line by drafting Davis and guard Mike Iupati made sense in theory, but Davis hasn't become nearly the player Thomas has become, and Mays lasted only one season with the team. Worse, the 49ers will have to play against Thomas twice a season for years to come.

Scouts Inc.'s ratings for NFL quarterbacks, available to Insider subscribers, raise a few questions:

• Why is Sam Bradford so low? The St. Louis Rams' second-year quarterback can do little wrong in these parts. Fans from other NFC West teams occasionally point to Bradford's weak rookie passer rating as evidence he's overrated. Others point to the Rams' dire situation at wide receiver last season and a six-game improvement in the standings as evidence Bradford is the real deal. The bottom line is that Bradford has shown the right mental makeup and physical skills to improve. He should move into the top 10 to 15 spots this season.
• Kevin Kolb is below Chad Henne? Yep. Henne is ranked No. 23, two spots higher than Kolb. The Scouts Inc. analysis for Henne stresses arm strength -- specifically, the ability to drive the ball into "tight windows" -- as a leading characteristic for him. Kolb's profile suggests he can make the necessary throws, but cannot fit the ball into said windows as easily. Henne has never thrown more touchdowns than interceptions in a season. Kolb has more picks than touchdowns for his career. It's a huge, huge disappointment in Arizona and a surprise to me if Kolb throws more picks than scoring passes this season.
• What more can we say about Alex Smith? Not much. We've heard it all before. New system, new opportunities, renewed efforts at leadership, all-around good-guyness. Niners fans care only about results as Smith enters his seventh season with the team. I get it, but this is all new for coach Jim Harbaugh. Smith's baggage means much less to him. One big difference this season is that Smith's contract lines up with his value. The organization isn't betting on him as its long-term starter. He's a stopgap until he proves otherwise. Smith is getting paid good money for a backup, not-so-good money for a starter.
• Tarvaris Jackson over Charlie Whitehurst? Yes, and it's not even close in these rankings, which were put together before the preseason games. Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. has subsequently called Jackson the worst starting quarterback in the league, and a player he wouldn't want even as a backup. Jackson, like the 49ers' Smith, has suffered behind shaky pass protection this summer. In quickly naming Jackson their starter, the Seahawks have gone out of their way as an organization to give him the support he needs. He's getting the opposite treatment on the field, which cannot be good for his confidence.

And now, on to the chart. Rookies and recently released players are not ranked.

Thoughts on the San Francisco 49ers after checking out ESPN's 300 highest-rated fantasy players for the 2011 season:

Vernon Davis ranks second among 49ers players and only fifth among NFL tight ends despite 20 touchdown receptions over the past two seasons, more than any NFL player at the position over that span.

It's possible Braylon Edwards' addition will give the 49ers another threat in the red zone. He caught six passes, three for touchdowns, on plays originating inside opponents' 20-yard line last season. Davis had 11 receptions, six for touchdowns, on plays from that area of the field last season. Corresponding numbers for Michael Crabtree last season: four receptions, three touchdowns.

Alex Smith ranks 28th among quarterbacks, between Chad Henne and Cam Newton. That seems low for Smith, but durability is a concern and it's not clear how quickly coach Jim Harbaugh might consider a change at the position. Would he want to get a few starts for rookie Colin Kaepernick at some point this season if Smith were just playing at a so-so level?

Unranked fantasy sleeper: Backup tight end Delanie Walker caught 29 passes last season, a career high. Harbaugh likes to feature tight ends. Davis will cast the longest shadow among this position group, making it tough for Walker or any other tight end to put up strong numbers. There's at least a chance Walker sees his production spike some this season.

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The late Don Smith never claimed his passer-rating formula was perfect.

Quite the opposite, in fact.

"Some people call it a quarterback rating system, but that really is not what it is," Smith told me during a 2002 interview. "It’s simply a passing statistic."

I've actually defended Smith's rating system because the quarterbacks with the highest ratings -- Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers led the way last season -- usually are the best quarterbacks. But there's so much more to quarterbacking than passing stats for touchdowns, interceptions, attempts, completions and yardage.

Game situations should count for something, and now they do.

With input from football people, including ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer, our statistical analysts have developed a 100-point ratings scale for quarterbacks taking into account advanced stats, game situations and relevant non-passing stats, including fumbles and sacks, to evaluate quarterbacks far more thoroughly. The methodology is complex -- one of the formula's key algorithms spans some 10,000 lines -- but the resulting "Total Quarterback Rating" (QBR for short) beats the old passer rating in every conceivable fashion. The ratings scale will debut this season.

I've been bugging the Stats & Information team for a sneak peak ever since learning former NBA statistical analyst Dean Oliver had joined our production analytics unit and was playing a prominent role in QBR development. Oliver, a Caltech grad with a Ph.D. in statistical applications, revolutionized how NBA teams use advanced statistics. Menlo College professor Ben Alamar, who has consulted with the San Francisco 49ers, is also part of the team.

Our stats team has been using game video to track stats relating to pressure, personnel, formation, game situation and more since 2008. The QBR stat represents a significant leap in harnessing those statistics for something more.

The old formula Smith created treated stats the same regardless of circumstance. A touchdown pass thrown against a prevent defense during a blowout defeat equals one thrown against pressure to win the game. A 5-yard completion on third-and-4 counts the same as a 5-yarder on third-and-15. A critical quarterback scramble, sack or fumble doesn't even factor.

"There is no way to statistically say how effective a guy is under fire," Smith lamented during our 2002 conversation. "None of that can be put into something like this."

Now it can, along with a whole lot more.

The QBR formula takes into account down, distance, field position, time remaining, rushing, passing sacks, fumbles, interceptions, how far each pass travels in the air, from where on the field the ball was thrown, yards after the catch, dropped balls, defensed balls, whether the quarterback was hit, whether he threw away the ball to avoid a sack, whether the pass was thrown accurately, etc. Each play carries "clutch weight" based on its importance to game outcome, as determined by analyzing those 60,000 plays since 2008. The stats adjust for quarterbacks facing an unusually high number of these situations.

"If it is a running clock late in the game, maybe you only get a few yards here or there, that is the right football play to make," Jeff Bennett, senior director of ESPN's production analytics team, said Sunday. "We spent a month learning about ratings to make sure quarterbacks couldn’t game the system, so they're not afraid to throw that deep pass at the end of the first half and risk an interception."

I've seen an outline for the rating system breaking down 2010 quarterbacks into six general categories, from top tier to poor. Precise rating numbers were not yet available. The quarterbacks under consideration broke down as follows:

• Top tier: Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, Rodgers and Drew Brees.
• Well above average: Josh Freeman, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers.
• Above average: Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, David Garrard and Kerry Collins.
• Around average: Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton and Jon Kitna.
• Below average: Shaun Hill, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith.
• Poor: Derek Anderson, Brett Favre and Jimmy Clausen.

ESPN plans to enlist several quarterbacks when introducing the stat during an hour-long "SportsCenter" special Friday at 8 p.m. ET. We'll be referencing the stat on the blogs and elsewhere. Bennett said he's allocating enough manpower to produce ratings on game days, a huge help for those of us analyzing player performances shortly after games.

"We want to reward a good football play," Bennett said.

Jesse Reynolds, an Arizona Cardinals fan deadlocked in a debate over quarterbacks, turned this way for a resolution.

"I have searched everywhere but haven't been able to find the data that supports (or contradicts) my argument that the Cardinals were one of the most-blitzed teams last year because no one feared our quarterbacks," Jesse wrote to me via Facebook. "Could you help find the numbers? I'm sure other NFC West teams' fans would love to know their numbers, too."

Blitz numbers usually tell us which defenses were more aggressive. But if we flipped our perspective, as Jesse suggested, we could find out which quarterbacks commanded the most respect, at least by this measure. Where to turn? Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Information put me in touch with colleague Jason Starrett, who came through with numbers for all 32 teams and for 40 individual quarterbacks.

Thanks to Jason, Jesse is going to win his argument by a knockout.

Opponents blitzed the Cardnials 37.2 percent of the time overall, the sixth-highest percentage in the league. Oakland (39.8), St. Louis (39.4), Chicago (38.4), Carolina (37.5) and Baltimore (37.5) faced blitzes more frequently.

We defined blitzes as plays when defenses rushed five or more defenders.

As the first chart shows, Max Hall, John Skelton, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford -- all rookies playing for losing teams season -- faced blitzes most frequently.

As the second chart shows, five highly experienced quarterbacks -- Peyton Manning, Jake Delhomme, Drew Brees, Matt Hasselbeck and Tom Brady -- faced blitzes least frequently.

Hall and Skelton combined to start seven games for Arizona. Teammate Derek Anderson ranked 17th among the 40 players listed in terms of being blitzed most frequently.

In looking at the charts, a few names showed up in surprising places.

The San Francisco 49ers' Smith ranked higher than expected on the list of quarterbacks facing blitzes less frequently. Was he really "commanding respect" the way Brady commanded respect? Of course not. Does he really qualify as a wily veteran such as Delhomme or Hasselbeck? The answer is "no" on that front as well.

Likewise, quarterbacks such as Hill and Henne wouldn't provide a strong deterrent to blitzing, would they? Why would Green Bay's Rodgers face blitzes more frequently than them?

Other variables come into play. Some teams blitz more frequently than others regardless of opponent. A quarterback facing these teams more frequently would see his numbers shift accordingly.

How well an offensive line picks up blitzes could influence how a defense attacks. How well receivers adjust to blitzes could matter, as could the confidence a defensive coordinator has in his secondary during a given week. A quarterback's running ability and ability to read defenses accurately could factor.

Overall, I'd say it's telling to see the Cardinals' Hall and Skelton blitzed so frequently, particularly relative to the numbers for the more experienced Anderson. It's also telling to see some highly experienced quarterbacks blitzed so infrequently by comparison.

Facebook friend Barrett was on the right track when he said NFL teams have struggled finding quarterbacks in the second and third rounds.

Teams tend to overvalue quarterbacks in the draft, which means the most promising ones rarely escape the first round. Teams tend to focus on other positions in the rounds immediately following the first round before "taking flyers" on the position later in the draft.

We see this when looking at the number of quarterbacks drafted by round since 2000. There have been 31 in the first round, 16 in the second, 17 in the third, 20 in the fourth, 24 in the fifth, 36 in the six and 32 in the seventh.

The chart, updated since it ran in February 2010, ranks second-round quarterbacks since 1995 by number of games played.

While we're on a hot streak, let's take a quick look at third-round quarterbacks drafted since 1995, arranged by team:

• Arizona: Stoney Case, Josh McCown
• Atlanta: Matt Schaub
• Baltimore: Chris Redman
• Buffalo: Trent Edwards
• Cleveland: Eric Zeier, Charlie Frye and Colt McCoy
• Denver: Brian Griese
• Houston: Dave Ragone
• Jacksonville: Jonathan Quinn
• Kansas City: Brodie Croyle
• New England: Kevin O'Connell
• Oakland: Andrew Walter
• Philadelphia: Bobby Hoying
• San Diego: Charlie Whitehurst
• San Francisco: Giovanni Carmazzi
• Seattle: Brock Huard, David Greene
• Tampa Bay: Chris Simms

Count Schaub and Whitehurst among those who were more valuable to their teams as trade bait than as quarterbacks.

Following up an earlier item, I've put together charts showing where NFL quarterbacks rate when throwing against eight-man boxes and loaded boxes (those where potential rushers outnumber blockers).

The first chart ranks the 12 quarterbacks with at least 20 attempts throwing against eight-man boxes. Most of these quarterbacks play for teams with top running backs.

Thanks to Allison Loucks of ESPN Stats & Information for providing the numbers.


The second chart shows where quarterbacks rate against loaded boxes (more potential rushers than blockers).

I expanded this chart to include quarterbacks with at least 15 attempts. This allowed the Arizona Cardinals' Derek Anderson and Max Hall to qualify for inclusion.

Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck provided insight Wednesday into how newly acquired running back Marshawn Lynch might help the Seattle Seahawks' entire offense, not just its running game.

"I don’t know if we’ve ever had a guy like him," Hasselbeck told reporters, noting that T.J. Duckett was more of a short-yardage specialist than an every-down power back. "This makes it a lot tougher for people to defend us. It gives us a huge opportunity in play-action, it gives us huge opportunities with the naked bootleg and just all kinds of things."

The play-action reference was appropriate. Hasselbeck owns the NFL's lowest passer rating in play-action situations among quarterbacks with at least nine such attempts, according to ESPN Stats & Information. The chart breaks down the 32 qualifying quarterbacks.

"You really get a boost from getting a guy like (Lynch)," Hasselbeck said. "He brings something to our team that we didn’t have: a big, powerful, strong back who loves football, has a good football IQ, and complements Justin (Forsett) and what he does well, and so it’s exciting to have him."

Even when the Seahawks were an elite rushing team, Shaun Alexander wasn't known for breaking tackles or punishing defenses.

Matt Ryan, Alex Smith, Drew Brees, Matt Schaub, Derek Anderson, Tom Brady ...

What's wrong with this list?

Nothing. Those six quarterbacks lead the NFL in red zone passing, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Sample sizes are a bit small this early in the season, but quarterbacks should operate efficiently inside the opponents' 20-yard line. Those with at least five attempts in the red zone have thrown 80 touchdown passes and 15 interceptions to this point in the season.

The top 17 quarterbacks on the list have thrown 53 touchdown passes without an interception. The bottom 15 on the list have 27 touchdowns with 15 interceptions.

Facebook friend E.J. reached out with a question about Matt Leinart's light workload against the Tennessee Titans on Monday night.

"When Kurt Warner was the starter," he wrote, "I always thought Leinart should play every snap of the preseason (when Warner wasn't in). But to my surprise, they often played Brian St. Pierre and even Tyler Palko. Now that Leinart's time has come, I'm again surprised to see how little Leinart has played."

E.J. pointed to other starters around the league playing longer.

"Could you shed some light on the Cardinals' approach to limiting Leinart's preseason work?" he asked.

Yes. I asked coach Ken Whisenhunt about this issue early in training camp and he surprisingly said there would be no extra effort made to get reps for Leinart. To the contrary, Whisenhunt was reasonably comfortable with what Leinart could do. Getting work for Anderson, who was new to the system, would be a higher priority than carving out extra time for Leinart.

That told me Whisenhunt felt good enough about Leinart to go into the season with Leinart as his starter, even if the offense played the way it played in past preseasons with Kurt Warner under center -- not very well.

Yes, it's more important for Leinart to look good during these preseason games because he's less established than Warner. It's also fair to wonder to what degree Leinart's performances might be affecting Whisenhunt's view of him. My sense early in camp was that Whisenhunt felt better about Leinart than he was letting on -- the last thing he wanted to see was Leinart getting complacent. Whisenhunt has handled other players similarly, so there's nothing out of the ordinary there.

At your request, E.J., I went through gamebooks from the recently completed second week of exhibition games to see how much starting quarterbacks played in general. Special circumstances limited A.J. Feeley, Josh Freeman and Brett Favre to only one series apiece.

The chart ranks preseason Week 2 starting quarterbacks by total plays. The chart also shows total possessions and pass attempts for each quarterback. Leinart could have gotten more plays by converting a first down or two, but I thought Whisenhunt could have given him another series or possibly gone for it on fourth-and-1.