NFC West: Chris Johnson
On the field, Willis helped hold Forte to 2.05 yards per carry as Willis' San Francisco 49ers defeated Forte's Chicago Bears 10-6. We'll conveniently overlook Forte's 120-yard receiving performance during that 2009 matchup at Candlestick Park.
Off the field, Willis defeated Forte to advance in the "Madden 13" cover competition.
Willis was a No. 11 seed to Forte's No. 6, but it's not Willis' fault someone underrated him. Perhaps the folks in charge of seeding were going by most contract complaints lodged instead of most first-team Associated Press All-Pro selections.
Willis faces Maurice Jones-Drew in the next round.
Seattle's Marshawn Lynch takes on Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers after defeating Chris Johnson in the previous round.
Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald goes against Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy after defeating Troy Polamalu.
My choices for this next round: Cam Newton, Fitzgerald, Willis, Darrelle Revis, Lynch, Drew Brees, Calvin Johnson and Jared Allen.
Vote here.
Lynch led the NFL in rushing yardage over the final nine weeks. He was at his best even though the Seahawks kept losing offensive linemen. The team used three starting combinations over the final nine weeks.
The power and fury Lynch showed through his running style gave the Seahawks' offense a needed edge. Throw in his late-season production and Lynch went from potential marginal free agent to a player Seattle felt good about securing for more than one season.
I've broken out Lynch's production by down over the final nine weeks. That information is in the first chart below.
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The second chart shows how players from the first chart fared in yards per carry by down. Lynch had consistent averages and yardage totals across first and second down.
Thanks to Hank Gargiulo of ESPN Stats & Information for helping with the numbers.
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With Willis back, fresh look at 49ers' run 'D'
The distinction is worth noting from a 49ers' perspective, in my view, because Willis is such a dominant player.
Green Bay's Ryan Grant remains the last running back to top 100 yards against the 49ers when Willis was playing. That was in November 2009. The St. Louis Rams' Steven Jackson remains the last running back to score a rushing touchdown against a Willis-led 49ers defense. That was in Week 16 last season. Jackson is the last NFC West player to top 100 yards against the 49ers when Willis was playing.
Eleven players have rushed for at least 100 yards in a game since the 49ers drafted Willis in 2007. Lynch is the only one to have done it twice, once with Buffalo and again last week. Lynch's 134-yard game against the 49ers in 2008 stands as the second-highest individual rushing performance against the 49ers in the Willis era. Chris Johnson had 135 for Tennessee in 2009.
All four run with power.
Two in particular -- Arizona's Beanie Wells and Seattle's Marshawn Lynch -- have racked up yardage after contact. Both rank among the NFL's top four in total yards after contact. And among those players with at least 1,000 yards, Wells and Lynch rank high in percentage of yards gained after contact (see chart, courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information).
Week 17 gives us one last chance to see Wells, Lynch and St. Louis' Steven Jackson in action this season. Along with San Francisco's Frank Gore, they give the NFC West more 1,000-yard rushers than any division. The AFC North, AFC South and AFC West have two apiece. The AFC East, NFC East and NFC South have one apiece. The NFC North has none after injuries sidelined Matt Forte (997 yards) and Adrian Peterson (970).
Six other backs are within 150 yards of 1,000 this season: Shonn Greene (999), Chris Johnson (986), Fred Jackson (934), Michael Bush (911), DeMarco Murray (897) and Rashard Mendenhall (890). Murray is sidelined by injury.
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2011 Gridiron Challenge: Roster roulette
That would have been a little self-serving after NFC East blogger Dan Graziano moved past my team in the standings this past week. Way to go, Dan. My team tanked with the lowest-scoring week (74) I can recall having.
A few things I've done this week in an attempt to stop the bleeding:
- Roll the dice on Tebow. Tim Tebow faces the New England Patriots' defense. Tebow's price remains relatively low among quarterbacks. I've already got big money invested in Aaron Rodgers. Tebow was the choice in the other QB spot. Our Gridiron Challenge columnist, Tom Carpenter, also points to Tebow as a decent value this week.
- Take aim at the weaklings. I've gone with Chris Johnson and the Tennessee Titans' defense because both face Indianapolis in Week 15. I've gone with Arizona's Beanie Wells and Jay Feely because they face the Cleveland Browns.
Best of luck to you and your team this week.
2011 Gridiron Challenge: Gore, Crabtree
- Romo against the Cardinals: Arizona's defense is improving, but Tony Romo still seemed like a bargain relative to other quarterbacks costing about the same ($6.8 million of our $50 million allotment). I moved him into my lineup over Cam Newton and used the $1 million savings to load up at running back. I considered playing the Cowboys' DeMarco Murray against an Arizona defense that lost nose tackle Dan Williams for the season. Murray was cheaper than the backs I went with (Frank Gore and Chris Johnson).
- Gore against the Rams: We all saw what Beanie Wells did to the Rams' last-ranked run defense in Week 12. I moved Wells out of my lineup late in the week because I wasn't sure whether his knee would limit him. Bad move. Gore has had 10 days between games. He should be fresh and ready to attack the Rams' defense.
- Crabtree as well: With Braylon Edwards hurting, I went with the 49ers' Michael Crabtree at receiver. His low price was appealing relative to his potential against a Rams secondary missing all of its top cornerbacks. The 49ers could get their points on the ground and by targeting tight ends, so playing Crabtree comes with risks. Crabtree did catch seven passes for 120 yards in his last home game, however.
Best of luck to you this week.
NFC West Penalty Watch: Peterson's tactics
"There is no foul for defensive pass interference," Winter announced. "The contact and the ball arrived at the same time."
Peterson has incurred nine assessed or declined penalties this season, one behind NFL leaders Brandon Browner, Rodger Saffold and Ryan Clady. Six of the nine were for coverage-related violations on defense.
But as Cardinals defensive coordinator Ray Horton told reporters Friday, Peterson isn't the only one making an adjustment. The rookie's aggressive playing style might require officials to adjust as well. Winter's decision to pick up the flag for pass interference might indicate that is happening already. What looks like interference isn't always interference.
The chart shows NFL players with the most penalties for defensive pass interference, defensive holding and illegal contact this season. Peterson ranks tied for second on the list. He has additional penalties for roughing the kicker, jumping offside and illegal use of hands.
Peterson has impressive company on the list, notably Ike Taylor and Charles Woodson. A few other big names, including Nnamdi Asomugha, have three such penalties.
Hank Gargiulo of ESPN Stats & Information provided the penalty info.
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Following up: About that 'pretender' label
They are also quite likely playoff pretenders, K.C. Joyner told us Thursday, making waves on the NFC West blog.
Geoff Burke/US PresswireJim Harbaugh would work even greater wonders with the New York Giants, K.C. Joyner contends.Fair enough. Still, I thought the "pretender" label was a little harsh, but I also knew Joyner does his homework.
NFL teams run about 30,000 plays from scrimmage in a given season. Joyner studies every one of them. He has charted every pass play since 2003 and all but a partial season's worth of running plays since 2006 for the books he publishes annually. Whether or not he's wrong about the 49ers, he figured to have some interesting insights.
Mike Sando: You said the 49ers' defense has beaten up on bad offenses and fared worse against good ones. You also watched the 49ers hold the Detroit Lions to season-low averages for yards per pass (4.4) and yards per play (4.2). You also know they've gone 30 games without allowing a 100-yard rusher. What about that Detroit game?
K.C. Joyner: It's Megatron and that is their offense. They are not a good running team. Brandon Pettigrew is a solid tight end, but he's not Antonio Gates or anything. Nate Burleson, OK, you can deal with him. Titus Young -- it's all good, but not dominant. They are not the Eagles when Philadelphia is on with so many weapons. San Francisco is beating the teams they are supposed to beat. The big genesis for my piece is the strength of the division. Teams coming from the worst divisions rarely do well.
Mike Sando: OK, but the 49ers have played only one division game this season. They are 6-1 outside the NFC West.
K.C. Joyner: I'm not knocking the 49ers. They've won outside the division. But the idea is, more than likely, if you have not been built to beat the stronger teams, you are not going to raise your level. The Bears teams of the 1980s didn't win more because all they had to do was beat the Vikings. But teams like the Redskins had to raise their level to beat the Giants.
Mike Sando: The 49ers' remaining schedule is third-easiest in the NFL, but they do have measuring-stick games against the Giants, Ravens and Steelers.
K.C. Joyner: If they beat the Giants this week, color me impressed. If not, this is a team that has not played the toughest competition. They are playing much better with a great coach, but this is not going to be the '81 49ers. They are not at that level.
Mike Sando: The Giants did not impress me against Seattle or Arizona. Are they any good?
K.C. Joyner: The Giants are good. They play to the level of their competition. They will step it up against a good team. If Harbaugh were coaching the Giants, they would play at that level all the time and win the Super Bowl. They still might, but that is the problem with the Giants. They should have stomped Miami, but barely won. They always do that.
Mike Sando: The 49ers' running game would seem to have a favorable matchup Sunday. What stands out when you look at San Francisco on the ground?
K.C. Joyner: When they get decent blocking, they are exploding for big yards. I keep a stat called "GBYPA" or good blocking yards per attempt. There's a series of rules that I follow, but basically we're talking about plays when blockers do not allow defenders to disrupt the play, when a running back has an opportunity to get yards. The 49ers have 98 runs like that and 907 yards gained on those runs for a 9.3-yard average. That is an elite number. Chris Johnson, during his 2,000-yard season, averaged 9.0 yards per carry on these runs. The entire 49ers team is doing better than that. LeSean McCoy is at 8.3 this year. Matt Forte is at 11.2, which is an awe-inspiring number.
Mike Sando: The run blocking hasn't been consistent enough, but you're right about Frank Gore in particular maximizing what is there. Harbaugh marveled this week about Gore's ability to contort his body in ways that let him get through the slightest openings in a defense. One more thing before we finish up. No discussion of the 49ers would be complete without covering Alex Smith's play. What do you see from him?
K.C. Joyner: I've seen only one bad decision from him all season. By bad decision, I mean plays where the quarterback makes a mistake with the ball leading to a turnover or near-turnover. Last season, Smith made these plays 2.5 percent of the time. He is at .5 percent this season, which is a Tom Brady-like number. They have taken a guy who was a good safe passer and gotten him to play a little better.
Mike Sando: One of the points you made in your "pretender" piece said the 49ers' relatively conservative approach to pass offense wouldn't be good enough in the playoffs, most likely. This is the one aspect I'm most interested in monitoring when the 49ers face teams such as the Giants, Ravens and Steelers. Could be something for us to discuss later in the season.
Dennis Wierzbicki/US PresswireMatt Forte's all-around contributions helped land him on the MVP Watch list for the first time in 2011.Let's not overlook the running backs.
Five earned spots on the list this week, the largest number I can recall in two-plus seasons maintaining MVP Watch. Four appeared one year ago, but none of the four -- Chris Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Arian Foster and Steven Jackson -- appears this time. Perhaps that's just the fleeting nature of the position.
San Francisco's Frank Gore and Chicago's Matt Forte are the running backs charging into consideration with the most momentum in 2011.
Rank 'Em: NFL MVP Candidates
Who tops your ballot for NFL MVP heading into Week 7? Consider the candidates and submit your rankings for NFL MVP honors.
We discussed last week which 49ers player, Gore or Alex Smith or someone on defense, deserved strongest consideration for MVP honors.
"I would just wait for one more week before I nominate," 4949centennial wrote. "My early candidate is Alex Smith, but I'm not ready to vote on him yet."
I was surprised to see more than twice as much support for Smith than for Gore in our SportsNation polling, and in spite of this, Gore was my choice for inclusion at that time. In my view, the 49ers were doing more to support Smith than the other way around. I moved up Gore from 10th last week to third this week after his 141-yard performance against previously 5-0 Detroit.
Smith played his worst game of the season until tossing the winning touchdown pass. Gore didn't get the ball as frequently as anticipated, but when he did, great things happened. He had two carries longer than 45 yards, and his late-game running helped sustain the winning drive.
With some of the other candidates suffering through down weeks -- Drew Brees and the no-longer-listed Wes Welker come to mind -- there was plenty of room for Gore closer to the top. The Lions' Calvin Johnson even moved up a spot, more by default than through performance, although he did exceed 100 yards receiving against San Francisco.
1. AARON RODGERS
Quarterback | Green Bay Packers ... Next Game: 10/23 at MIN ... Last Poll: 1 
The Packers are averaging 9.8 yards every time Rodgers attempts a pass. Rodgers is on pace to finish with 5,416 yards with 45 TDs and eight INTs. For reference, consider that Brady finished with 50 TDs and eight INTs during his 2007 MVP season. Rodgers probably could have done more to pad his stats against the Rams in the second half, but the Packers cruised to victory and did not score after halftime.
Week 6 vs. STL
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 28 | 310 | 60.7 | 11.07 | 93 | 3 | 1 | 91.9 |
2. TOM BRADY
Quarterback | New England Patriots ... Next Game: 10/30 at PIT ... Last Poll: 2 
Brady's 8-yard scoring pass to Aaron Hernandez with 22 seconds remaining delivered New England to another home victory, this one against Dallas, as Brady remained firmly positioned to collect MVP honors should Rodgers falter. Welker's raw stats earned him a place on this list a week ago, and rightfully so. But if someone from the Patriots winds up winning MVP honors, that someone is going to be Brady, period. The Dallas game showed why, again.
Week 6 vs. DAL
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 41 | 289 | 65.9 | 7.05 | 45 | 2 | 2 | 56.8 |
3. FRANK GORE
Running Back | San Francisco 49ers ... Next Game: 10/30 vs. CLE ... Last Poll: 10 
It's been a strange season for Gore to this point. He held out for a new contract, started slowly in a new offense, suffered an ankle injury and watched rookie Kendall Hunter bite into his playing time, once even replacing Gore in the lineup. The past three weeks have demonstrated Gore's value to the team, however. He has rushed for at least 125 yards in every one of them. The only complaint? Three dropped passes. Gore remains a terrific option out of the backfield, however.
Week 6 at DET
| ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 141 | 9.4 | 55 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 8 | 0 |
4. CALVIN JOHNSON
Wide Receiver | Detroit Lions ... Next Game: 10/23 vs. ATL ... Last Poll: 5 
The 49ers' front seven got enough pressure to keep the Lions' receiving game largely in check. The Lions kept settling for short passes to the tight end (Brandon Pettigrew finished with eight receptions for only 42 yards). Johnson did break through with a 41-yard reception. He went without a TD catch for the first time this season. It's a testament to Johnson's abilities when an opponent with a defense as formidable as the 49ers' feels good about holding a player to seven receptions for 113 yards.
Week 6 vs. SF
| REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 113 | 16.1 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
5. MATTHEW STAFFORD
Quarterback | Detroit Lions ... Next Game: 10/23 vs. ATL ... Last Poll: 3 
Stafford took nearly as many sacks against the 49ers (five) as he had taken in the Lions' five games previously (six). The 49ers sent more than four pass-rushers only once in 57 drop backs, according to ESPN Stats & Information. (Jim Harbaugh indicated the team never sent more than four, but whatever the case, San Francisco got pressure without sacrificing coverage.) The constant pressure made Stafford's job tougher. Stafford did not respond as well as the Lions would have liked. Jim Schwartz even publicly said this wasn't a good game for his QB.
Week 6 vs. SF
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 50 | 293 | 56.0 | 5.86 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 29.7 |
6. DARREN McFADDEN
Running Back | Oakland Raiders ... Next Game: 10/23 vs. KC ... Last Poll: 8 
A 20-carry, 91-yard performance in victory helped the Raiders get to 4-2 while keeping McFadden atop the list of leading rushers. Losing quarterback Jason Campbell to a broken collarbone threatened to make McFadden's job tougher by limiting the Raiders' offense. But with Carson Palmer coming aboard and the Raiders' bye week approaching after one more game, the outlook for McFadden remains strong this season. He has not been as productive as a receiver out of the backfield, however.
Week 6 vs. CLE
| ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 91 | 4.6 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 |
7. DREW BREES
Quarterback | New Orleans Saints ... Next Game: 10/23 vs. IND ... Last Poll: 4 
The INTs are creeping back into Brees' game for the second season in a row. He finished last season with 22, a career high. He has eight over the Saints' past four games, putting him on pace for 21 picks this season. He won't win MVP honors turning over the ball that frequently, no matter what factors might be contributing to the situation. Games against Indianapolis and St. Louis over the next two weeks should give Brees an opportunity to move back up the list.
Week 6 at TB
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 45 | 383 | 64.4 | 8.51 | 43 | 1 | 3 | 60.4 |
8. FRED JACKSON
Running Back | Buffalo Bills ... Next Game: 10/30 vs. WAS ... Last Poll: 7 
Jackson has put together consecutive 100-yard rushing games to move within 9 yards of the Raiders' McFadden for most rushing yards in the league. He's also averaging a career-high 11.9 yards per reception on 24 catches. The jinx factor is heavily in play as I point out another mark in Jackson's favor: He has yet to fumble on 130 touches this season. That will not change for at least another week. The Bills have a bye.
Week 6 at NYG
| ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 121 | 7.6 | 80 | 1 | 5 | 47 | 9.4 | 19 | 0 |
9. MATT FORTE
Running Back | Chicago Bears ... Next Game: 10/23 at TB ... Last Poll: NR 
Speaking of jinx factors, Forte hasn't fumbled on 135 touches this season. He had nine fumbles, with the Bears losing five of them, over the previous two seasons. Forte's raw rushing totals aren't all that overwhelming, but with 36 receptions for 381 yards, his all-around production has been critical for a team whose only defeats were against Green Bay, New Orleans and Detroit. Forte next faces a Tampa Bay defense that, while stout against the run in some games, nonetheless allowed 186 yards rushing to Minnesota and 213 to San Francisco.
Week 6 vs. MIN
| ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 87 | 5.1 | 21 | 0 | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 10 | 0 |
10. RAY RICE
Running Back | Baltimore Ravens ... Next Game: 10/24 at JAC ... Last Poll: NR 
The Ravens have already had their bye, one reason Rice's season totals don't match up as well. He's been a driving force behind a 4-1 start to the season. Rice is coming off his first 100-yard rushing game since the opener. He has consistently produced as a receiver and now has 700 total yards. He trails only Jackson and Forte in total yards from scrimmage per game (140).
Week 6 vs. HOU
| ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 101 | 4.4 | 27 | 0 | 5 | 60 | 12.0 | 18 | 0 |
2011 Gridiron Challenge: Big WR concerns
- Leader: mboles52, for a second week in a row. His scoring peaked with 173 points in Week 3, coming down to 158 and a season-low 129 over the last two weeks. A rough week from Darren McFadden hurt. Also, mboles52 was among those forced to make a roster move following Andre Johnson's hamstring injury. He picked up Wes Welker. I went with Carolina's Steve Smith.
- High score of the week: mdubb2006, with 184 points. This marked a 99-point improvement from one week to the next for mdubb2006, who also had to replace Johnson at receiver. He went with Pierre Garcon instead and got 24 points from the Indianapolis receiver. He also replaced Scott Chandler with Vernon Davis at tight end, and Chris Johnson with Arian Foster at running back. Those moves paid off big. Getting 24 points from the San Francisco 49ers' defense also helped.
- My team: tied for 246th out of 1,530 entries, 85.0 percentile. Up from 481st place and 68.8 percentile. Sticking with the 49ers' Davis after a slow start paid off with two touchdown receptions in Week 5. And even though I foolishly predicted an Arizona victory at previously winless Minnesota, I wasn't foolish enough to remove the Vikings' Adrian Peterson in my lineup. His 30 points keyed a 147-point week for me, a season high.
- My wife's team: tied for 233rd place, 85.8 percentile. Down frrom 66th place and 95.7 percentile last week, which was down from 17th place just a few weeks ago. Around the house, we call this a downward spiral. By the way, upon request, we've added her team name to the featured leaderboard on the main NFC West Gridiron Challenge page. The hope is that she buckles under the added pressure.
- Dan Graziano's team: tied for 624th place, 61.3 percentile. Up from 650th place and 58.1 percentile. Something tells me Dan has found better things to do with his life. Houston's Johnson and San Diego's Antonio Gates have remained in his lineup for weeks despite their injuries. Wait, this just in. Gridiron Challenge sources say Graziano has a new tight end in his lineup this week. It's on.
- Key decision of the week: What to do at wide receiver. Those who went into the season with Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald will likely have two other receivers going in Week 6. Johnson is out, of course, and Fitzgerald is on his bye week after a disappointing stretch of games. I've replaced Fitzgerald with the New York Giants' Victor Cruz, which saved enough money to pick up Green Bay's defense against St. Louis.
How are you handling the situation at receiver?
Officials have flagged teams from the division 153 times, assessing penalties covering 1,054 yards. The other divisions average 118 penalties and 835 penalty yards, according to ESPN Stats & Information. No division has as many in either category.
The totals count declined penalties.
The chart below shows all 14 NFL players with at least five declined and assessed penalties this season. Five of them play for NFC West teams.
On a side note, penalties for unnecessary roughness are on the rise, with 57 having been called through the first four weeks of the season. There were 25 through the first four games of the 2007 season. That number has risen to 37 (2008), 41 (2009), 53 (2010) and now 57.
I doubt players have gotten any rougher unnecessarily. Officials are likely calling these penalties more aggressively. Calls for unsportsmanlike conduct are also up. There have been 17 through four games this season, up from an average of nine at this point in the previous four seasons.
US PresswireTom Brady, left, and Aaron Rodgers own the top two spots in our first MVP watch list of the season.Peyton Manning's precarious health situation heading toward the Indianapolis Colts' 2011 opener leaves him ranked only 10th on our initial MVP Watch of the season.
It's nearly unfathomable.
Rank 'Em: NFL MVP Candidates
Tom Brady won his second MVP after last season's 36-TD, four-interception performance. He'll be looking to repeat this season with a revamped receiving corps and a chip on his shoulder.
Running backs LaDainian Tomlinson (2006), Shaun Alexander (2005) and Marshall Faulk (2000) are the only non-quarterbacks to win the award since 2000.
Defensive lineman Alan Page, kicker Mark Moseley and linebacker Lawrence Taylor defied the MVP odds even more improbably. They won the NFL's highest individual honor without handling the football regularly as a quarterback or running back. They were the exceptions since the Associated Press began naming MVPs back in 1957.
Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson are the only non-quarterbacks appearing on the initial MVP Watch this season. I'll be watching Ben Roethlisberger, Josh Freeman, Clay Matthews Jr., Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and others during Week 1.
Who else deserves early consideration? Rotating additional players through the rankings will be a priority.
1. TOM BRADY
Quarterback | New England Patriots ... Next Game: 9/12 at MIA ... Last Poll: 1 Brady has won MVP honors twice in the past four seasons. He became the first unanimous choice last season, collecting all 50 votes. Brady also led the NFL in QBR last season and it wasn't particularly close (76.0 for Brady to 69.5 for Peyton Manning). Brady, Drew Brees and Manning are the only players with at least 60 touchdown passes over the past two seasons. The INT totals for the same period are telling: 17 for Brady, 33 apiece for Brees and Manning.
2010 Statistics
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 324 | 492 | 3900 | 65.9 | 7.93 | 79 | 36 | 4 | 25 | 111.0 |
2. AARON RODGERS
Quarterback | Green Bay Packers ... Next Game: 9/8 vs. NO ... Last Poll: 5 Winning a championship last season enhanced Rodgers' credentials. He's still an ascending player coming off only his third season as an NFL starter. Rodgers cut down his sacks last season after taking a league-high 50 in 2009. MVP balloting had closed by the time Rodgers started playing his best -- in the playoffs. We won't hold that against him here.
2010 Statistics
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 312 | 475 | 3922 | 65.7 | 8.26 | 86 | 28 | 11 | 31 | 101.2 |
3. MICHAEL VICK
Quarterback | Philadelphia Eagles ... Next Game: 9/11 at STL ... Last Poll: 2 
Vick finished second in the MVP Watch last season. His placement near the top of this list last season generated particularly strong resistance for some reason. Vick was one of four qualifying quarterbacks with a passer rating in triple digits, joining Brady, Philip Rivers and Rodgers. Only Rivers had more pass plays covering at least 40 yards. Vick passed for 21 touchdowns, ran for nine more and finished with more rushing yards than Ricky Williams, Michael Bush, Marshawn Lynch or Jahvid Best. He was also fifth in QBR, ahead of Brees.
2010 Statistics
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 233 | 372 | 3018 | 62.6 | 8.11 | 91 | 21 | 6 | 34 | 100.2 |
4. DREW BREES
Quarterback | New Orleans Saints ... Next Game: 9/8 at GB ... Last Poll: 4 Not many quarterbacks could pass for 4,620 yards and 33 TDs during a "down" season. The 22 interceptions he threw matched Brees' total in 31 starts across the 2004 and 2005 seasons. His YPA also plummeted from 8.5 in 2009 to 7.0 last season. The way the Saints lost in the playoffs -- against a 7-9 Seattle team -- wasn't true to form, either. Opening on the road against the Packers on Thursday night gives Brees a big stage early.
2010 Statistics
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 448 | 658 | 4620 | 68.1 | 7.02 | 80 | 33 | 22 | 25 | 90.9 |
5. PHILIP RIVERS
Quarterback | San Diego Chargers ... Next Game: 9/11 vs. MIN ... Last Poll: 9 
The Chargers haven't fared well enough as a team for Rivers to consistently rank among the top MVP candidates. San Diego has opened the past four seasons with records of 2-5, 2-3, 4-8 and 1-3. That shouldn't happen when a quarterback plays as well as Rivers has played. This should be a huge season for Rivers, who hasn't missed a game since becoming the Chargers' starter for the 2006 season.
2010 Statistics
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 357 | 541 | 4710 | 66.0 | 8.71 | 59 | 30 | 13 | 38 | 101.8 |
6. ADRIAN PETERSON
Running Back | Minnesota Vikings ... Next Game: 9/11 at SD ... Last Poll: NR 
The first running back on the list is entering a contract year after four seasons with at least 1,298 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. Peterson solved his fumbling problem last season, leaving him with no real weakness. The Vikings are a team in transition at quarterback. Will that make life tougher for Peterson or only accentuate his value? Tomlinson (2006) and Alexander (2005) are the only running backs to win MVP honors since Faulk in 2000.
2010 Statistics
| ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 283 | 1298 | 4.6 | 80 | 12 | 36 | 341 | 9.5 | 34 | 1 |
7. CHRIS JOHNSON
Running Back | Tennessee Titans ... Next Game: 9/11 at JAC ... Last Poll: NR 
Johnson rushed for 642 fewer yards in 2010 than he had in 2009 and still finished with 1,364 -- more than Peterson. He did not win MVP honors for his 2,006-yard season in 2009, however, and he'll have a hard time upstaging the quarterbacks this year unless the Titans improve significantly upon their 6-10 record last season.
2010 Statistics
| ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 316 | 1364 | 4.3 | 76 | 11 | 44 | 245 | 5.6 | 25 | 1 |
8. MATT SCHAUB
Quarterback | Houston Texans ... Next Game: 9/11 vs. IND ... Last Poll: NR 
Question marks surrounding the division-rival Colts put the Texans in prime position to finally break through. They need to take that next step for Schaub to factor seriously in the MVP race this season. He has 9,140 yards and 53 touchdowns over the past two seasons, but the Texans must enjoy more team success. If they do, however, teammates Andre Johnson and Arian Foster figure to siphon off votes from Schaub.
2010 Statistics
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 365 | 574 | 4370 | 63.6 | 7.61 | 60 | 24 | 12 | 32 | 92.0 |
9. MATT RYAN
Quarterback | Atlanta Falcons ... Next Game: 9/11 at CHI ... Last Poll: 6 
The new QBR stat loved Ryan last season, ranking him third behind only Brady and Manning for overall quarterback effectiveness. Ryan has been very solid for the Falcons, but he hasn't surpassed 4,000 yards in a season or been flashy enough to generate much traction in the MVP race. Having Roddy White and Michael Turner on the team gives voters other front-line players to consider from the same roster. That does not help Ryan's candidacy.
2010 Statistics
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 357 | 571 | 3705 | 62.5 | 6.49 | 46 | 28 | 9 | 23 | 91.0 |
10. PEYTON MANNING
Quarterback | Indianapolis Colts ... Next Game: 9/11 at HOU ... Last Poll: 3 
It would be a joke to rank Manning so low on an MVP watch list under normal circumstances. He's a four-time winner of the award and arguably the best player in the league when at his best. Neck surgery and a lingering rehabilitation are threatening to prevent Manning from playing in the opener. His MVP status is in question until Manning returns.
2010 Statistics
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | SACK | RAT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 450 | 679 | 4700 | 66.3 | 6.92 | 73 | 33 | 17 | 16 | 91.9 |
49ers' J. Smith and heirs to Manning streak
There is one.
The San Francisco 49ers' Justin Smith, the NFL's active ironman among defensive linemen with 155 starts in a row, would have to remain in the lineup continuously through the sixth game of the 2014 season to surpass Manning's 208-game streak.
Smith, 31, would be turning 35 at about the time he reached 209 starts.
The chart shows current starting streaks of at least 100 games, according to the NFL. Alan Faneca is retiring, so he'll come off the list. Atlanta Falcons center Todd McClure, tied with Faneca on the list, will miss the regular-season opener after having knee surgery.
Players need toughness, luck, consistency and talent to maintain such streaks in such a physically demanding sport. The position they play also matters.
The longest active starting streak for running backs stands at only 48 games, with the Chicago Bears' Matt Forte atop the list. The Tennessee Titans' Chris Johnson is next at 32 games, with the St. Louis Rams' Steven Jackson third at only 17 regular-season starts in a row. Only three other running backs have started more than 12 games in a row.
Update: The NFL's internal statistics engine listed Ronde Barber with 179 consecutive regular-season starts. The Bucs' figure is 183. Game logs available on NFL.com confirm 183. I updated the chart to 183.
2011 NFL positional count at 53-man limit
"General" is the appropriate term here because some teams see fullbacks as tight ends, defensive ends as outside linebackers and the like. But the general picture can be helpful in determining where teams might be a little thin, where they have depth, etc.
Teams often wind up picking the best 53 players at the expense of some positions. The San Francisco 49ers did this at the expense of a third quarterback, for example.
These counts will change. In Tennessee, for example, running back Chris Johnson is not immediately counting against the 53-man limit. The Titans received an exemption for him after Johnson missed camp during a contract dispute.
Intelligence report: Arizona Cardinals
1. Kolb has to be the guy: The Cardinals are paying Kevin Kolb about what Sam Bradford will receive for the next five years. That puts Arizona's commitment level in perspective. Coach Ken Whisenhunt is all-in on this one. The team should know this season whether Kolb is going to be the answer. Early returns are encouraging. Kolb has shown a dynamic personality that lends itself to leadership. He has shown a clear understanding of the No. 1 rule in Arizona: Throw the ball to Larry Fitzgerald when he's open, and throw it to him anyway when he's not.
2. Ray Horton is not a magician: The Cardinals' new defensive coordinator has the right pedigree. He learned under Dick LeBeau in Pittsburgh. It doesn't get much better than that. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, Horton could not bring with him from Pittsburgh the outside pass-rushers who have helped the Steelers field such a strong defense. Neither can Horton wave a magic wand to make Joey Porter, Clark Haggans, O'Brien Schofield and Sam Acho turn into elite edge rushers. Look for the Cardinals to get creative with their inside linebackers. They also need to generate pressure with their safeties. Adrian Wilson can be a formidable blitzer, but he's dealing with a biceps injury.
3. Kolb's health is in focus: Kolb left the Eagles' 2010 regular-season opener with a concussion. He's now joining a Cardinals team without elite pass protectors at either tackle spot. Running back Beanie Wells hasn't been consistent in protection, either. It's important for Kolb to keep his competitive nature in check when scrambling or deciding what to do with the ball. Fitzgerald has praised Kolb for getting rid of the football quickly. Kurt Warner set the standard in that area. Kolb must follow suit. He's not the sturdiest or most physical quarterback. He needs to be smart with his body because the Cardinals don't have a backup with nearly the same abilities.
4. The schedule sets up favorably: The Cardinals face some tough stretches, but they begin and end the season with games that appear quite manageable. Carolina (home) and Washington (road) are first on the schedule. Arizona plays four of its final five games at home. None of the Cardinals' final five opponents even had a winning record last season. Arizona struggled late last season despite playing a cushy schedule. The addition of Kolb gives the Cardinals a better chance to beat the teams they're supposed to beat. Even average play from Kolb could be enough to challenge for a division title.
5. Make-or-break year for Beanie Wells: The third-year back finds himself in position to become the week-to-week starter now that Tim Hightower (traded) and Ryan Williams (injured) aren't options. Wells remains an intriguing prospect. He has 292 carries for 1,190 yards and nine touchdowns during his first two seasons, with only two starts. Wells has the ability to double his career production in a single season as the full-time starter. Backs starting every game last season averaged 288 carries. It's just tough to trust Wells over the course of a full season. He has been hurt too much and running back is a brutal position. Steven Jackson, Rashard Mendenhall, Cedric Benson, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte and Ronnie Brown were the only running backs to start all 16 games last season.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Mike Sando
Sando joined ESPN.com in 2007 after nine seasons covering the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma (Wash.) News Tribune. He lives in the Seattle-Tacoma area with his wife and two sons.
