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Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Cardinals in 2012:

Dream scenario (11-5): A full offseason of healing and playbook study lets Kevin Kolb prove the Cardinals knew what they were doing when they acquired him from Philadelphia in the offseason. There's plenty of credit to go around. The team's decision to reassign assistant coach John McNulty from receivers to quarterbacks becomes a popular storyline. There's no doubt Kolb's mechanics have improved, but talent and good health are what win football games.

Michael Floyd's addition through the draft makes the Cardinals' passing game nearly impossible to defend, particularly with second-year back Ryan Williams emerging as the game-breaking runner Arizona was convinced it had drafted. Adding young linemen for Russ Grimm to develop also pays off, particularly as the season progresses. Bobby Massie looks like a keeper at right tackle. On the other side, Levi Brown picks up where he left off last season, proving Arizona was right in re-signing him to a five-year contract.

The transformation on defense surprises even the Cardinals. Yes, Arizona made strides on that side of the ball while winning seven of its final nine games in 2011. But there was no way anyone could have expected Sam Acho to challenge Simeon Rice's season franchise record for sacks since 1982 (Rice had 16.5 in 1999). With a healthy Dan Williams at nose tackle and Acho pumping up an already-underrated pass rush, cornerback Patrick Peterson takes the next logical step in his development: picking off passes and returning them for touchdowns.

Winning at San Francisco in Week 17 delivers an 11-5 record and the NFC West title to Arizona, the team's third division crown in five years.

Nightmare scenario (5-11): No one can blame Gregg Williams or Jonathan Vilma for the concussion Kolb suffers in the Hall of Fame game against New Orleans to open the exhibition season. Some in the Cardinals' organization welcome the switch to John Skelton, but with Ryan Williams and Beanie Wells predictably battling knee problems, the offense becomes one-dimensional. That's tough for a team with Brown and a rookie starting at tackle. Kolb's return after a few weeks means as much as it did last season -- nothing.

By October, it's clear the Cardinals didn't do enough at tackle or outside linebacker to take the next step. Those offseason stories about a full offseason helping Kolb seemed justified at the time, but we should have known better. McNulty's coaching helps, but players revert to form under pressure, and Kolb is no exception. He wasn't going to develop instincts all of a sudden, was he? Aldon Smith's three-sack game against Arizona on Monday night in Week 8 doesn't seem so bad when Clay Matthews collects four of them the following week.

For the second time in three seasons, the Cards finish 5-11 after getting blown out at San Francisco in Week 17. The quarterback questions persisting upon Kurt Warner's retirement continue to linger. Watching Peyton Manning in the playoffs doesn't help.

» AFC Scenarios: East | West | North | South » NFC: East | West | North | South

Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Rams in 2012:

Dream scenario (8-8): Sam Bradford takes every snap on offense for the second time in three seasons as the Rams protect their franchise quarterback with sensible play-calling. It's the sixth time a Jeff Fisher-coached team finishes 8-8, but no one is complaining after the Rams' 15-65 run over the previous five seasons. Trusting offensive line coach Paul Boudreau to salvage right tackle Jason Smith becomes one of the surprise success stories of the 2012 season, and a critical one for the Rams' efforts to re-establish Bradford.

Turns out the Rams were not fibbing when they suggested Brian Quick, the receiver they took in the second round, ranked up there with first-rounder Justin Blackmon on their board. The constant threat of Steven Jackson and Isaiah Pead out of the backfield creates favorable matchups for Quick and the Rams' underrated receivers. Bradford publicly downplays a Week 2 victory over Robert Griffin III and Washington, but it feels good to win at home against the player St. Louis could have selected second overall this year.

Watching Janoris Jenkins score on a fourth-quarter punt return in Patrick Peterson's house improbably stakes the Rams to a 6-5 record, stirring visions of the postseason. It's certainly sweet to finally win within the division again. The Rams lose to San Francisco the following week and ultimately finish the regular season with a respectable defeat at Seattle, but the season is a success by any measure.

Nightmare scenario (3-13): Road games against Detroit and Chicago in the first three weeks expose Bradford to significant punishment as Smith and the line struggle to find their bearings. Bradford doesn't want to talk about the ankle injury he aggravated at some point in the season's first month, but it's clearly a factor. Facing Cliff Avril, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Ndamukong Suh, Brian Orakpo, Ryan Kerrigan, Julius Peppers, Chris Clemons, Bruce Irvin, Calais Campbell, Darnell Dockett, Cameron Wake and Clay Matthews in the first seven games leaves Bradford limping toward the bye week, his confidence shaken.

Jackson continues to plug away, but we've seen this movie before, and it doesn't end well for the Rams. The depth at receiver is indeed improved, but Bradford doesn't have any truly dynamic weapons. Quick understandably needs seasoning, but with Blackmon and Arizona's Michael Floyd challenging rookie receiving records, the Rams look bad for trading down. It's tough finding open receivers with Smith struggling at tackle, anyway.

First-round pick Michael Brockers and free-agent addition Kendall Langford upgrade the run defense, but life as an every-down defensive end is tough for Robert Quinn. The veteran outside linebackers signed as stopgaps represent only a minor upgrade from last season. Off-field issues dog Jenkins, and the defense fails to meet expectations. Critics conveniently blame Gregg Williams' suspension, but the problems are more complex than that.

The Rams head into the offseason with another high draft choice, one they'll almost certainly have to invest in a playmaker of some sort.

» NFC pressure points: West | North | South | East
» AFC pressure points: West | North | South | East

Examining who faces the most challenging season for the St. Louis Rams and why.

Jason Smith should be hitting his prime years as an offensive tackle for the Rams. There's a chance that will be the case, unlikely as it seems after three underwhelming seasons marked by injuries. The Rams reworked Smith's contract and will find out whether new line coach Paul Boudreau can help Smith, still only 26, fulfill more of his potential. Smith, limited to six games last season after suffering a concussion during a freak collision, will need better luck with injuries for that to happen.

It's instructive to recall the Rams' thinking when they made Smith the second player chosen in the 2009 draft. The feeling then was that Smith remained in the early stages of a transition from tight end to tackle, and that Eugene Monroe, selected eighth overall that year by Jacksonville, was more polished coming out of college.

"The way we look at it, he has played at a high level with only three years at the position," Billy Devaney, then the Rams' general manager, said of Smith at the time. "So you try to project a year or two down the road with that kind of development that we see, he’ll be that much better. If you take Monroe, he comes in and lines up on Sunday, if we're playing, at left tackle and plays. He's been there longer. Jason has been a right tackle and that’s what gives us flexibility. ... His production is good now and his potential is outstanding."

The Rams are envisioning more of a run-oriented offense this year. That could help Smith, their projected starter at right tackle, find his bearings. The schedule presents challenges, however. Smith opens the season on the road against Detroit and the Lions' franchise player, Cliff Avril. The Washington Redskins' Ryan Kerrigan is on the schedule in Week 2, followed by matchups against rookie first-round picks Shea McClellin (Chicago) and Bruce Irvin (Seattle). Green Bay's Clay Matthews is also on the schedule in the first seven games.

Arizona Cardinals receiver Michael Floyd was fifth and Seattle Seahawks pass-rusher Bruce Irvin sixth on John Clayton's list of 10 new draft choices likely to make the greatest immediate impact.

"Floyd's presence may force defenses into more zone coverages, because it will be hard to double Larry Fitzgerald and match up man-to-man against Floyd," Clayton theorized. "Irvin is probably the draft's best pass-rusher and should put up double-digit sack numbers early in his career."

Let's consider that a launching point for a discussion EDTGO jump-started from his luxury box in the comments section of an earlier item on Arizona's draft thinking.

"Floyd will be starting and will have the best position of the rookies to get stats," he wrote.

Rookie receivers making at least 10 starts from 2009 through last season averaged 46 receptions for 721 yards and five touchdowns, according to Pro Football Reference. Cincinnati's A.J. Green and Tampa Bay's Mike Williams had the most receptions of the group (65 apiece). Green, Williams and Julio Jones each topped 900 yards. Those three joined Torrey Smith as the only ones with more than six touchdown receptions.

We shouldn't forget about St. Louis Rams second-round receiver Brian Quick. He has a good chance at starting. The Rams thought Quick reminded them of Terrell Owens from a physical standpoint. Owens had 35 catches for 520 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie, making 10 starts.

The status for San Francisco 49ers first-round receiver A.J. Jenkins could be tougher to define initially. He could wind up starting if the Randy Moss experiment does not work out. He could also ease into the role, getting fewer opportunities as the 49ers run their offense through other players primarily.

Double-digit sacks from Irvin might be enough to eclipse for impact the projected receiving numbers from Floyd, Quick or Jenkins.

Five rookies since 2009 have collected at least 10 sacks. San Francisco's Aldon Smith, with 14 sacks last season, was the only one to do so as a backup. Von Miller, Brian Orakpo, Clay Matthews and Ndamukong Suh -- all first-round choices, as were Smith and Irvin -- reached double digits in sacks while starting at least 13 games.

Carlos Dunlap had 9.5 sacks in 12 games, none of them starts, for Cincinnati in 2010.

Irvin should benefit from the Seahawks' very specific plans for him. The team got nine sacks in zero starts from Raheem Brock in 2010. Irvin will play a similar role and a similar percentage of the snaps, giving him a very good chance to eclipse Brock's total -- if he's talented enough to produce those numbers. Brock played about 50 percent of the snaps for Seattle in each of the last two seasons.

Who else deserves our consideration?

"Janoris Jenkins has a shot ... assuming he can keep his head on straight," ramm428a wrote.

"Yep," randdles wrote, "Jenkins will get to face five of the top QBs this year, he could make a big impact."

Matthew Stafford, Robert Griffin III, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are among the high-profile quarterbacks Jenkins, a second-round cornerback with first-round talent, will face in his initial season with the Rams. Jenkins will face those quarterbacks by Week 8, giving him a chance to shape perceptions early.

Devin McCourty and Joe Haden are the only drafted cornerbacks to exceed five interceptions as rookies over the past three seasons.

"Michael Brockers could have a huge impact," JohnnyP3180 wrote of the Rams' first-round choice. "Not flashy, but he could make the biggest difference for his team."

That might be true, but as a run stuffer, Brockers probably won't accumulate the stats players often need to draw acclaim. We'll be sure to monitor Brockers' contributions closely regardless.

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Thoughts on Seattle Seahawks first-round pick Bruce Irvin after reading John Clayton's piece questioning the selection:

• Specific role: The Seahawks envision Irvin as a situational pass-rusher for now and the evenutal successor to Chris Clemons in the "Leo" role. Clemons was a 236-pound linebacker coming out of college. He had a 4.7-second time in the 40-yard dash, went undrafted as a junior and floundered in Philadelphia. The Seahawks acquired him with a specific role in mind. Clemons ranks eighth in the NFL with 22 sacks over the last two seasons, more than Julius Peppers, James Harrison, Clay Matthews, Dwight Freeney, Trent Cole, Jason Pierre-Paul and others. Clemons now weighs 255 pounds and has become much stronger against the run. Irvin is Clemons' height (6-foot-3) and weighs 245 pounds, but he is much faster, having run the 40 in 4.4 seconds. The plan would be for Irvin to grow into a bigger role, not to remain a situational player forever.
• Value at No. 15: Draft analysts did not anticipate Irvin's selection at No. 15. It's impossible to know whether the Seahawks could have drafted Irvin later than that. Three teams running variations of the 4-3 defense selected defensive ends in the first round. Irvin went first, followed by Shea McClellin to Chicago at No. 19 and Chandler Jones to New England at No. 21. Jacksonville, picking 38th, was the next 4-3 team to select a defensive end (Andre Branch). There was a six-pick window for 4-3 teams to select a pass-rusher in the first round. Seattle opened the window. Chicago and New England closed it, with the Patriots trading up to make sure the window did not slam on them. The Seahawks liked Jones, but concerns over a toe injury raised questions about how early they would select him. They were comfortable with the off-field issues Irvin carried into the draft.
• Whether Irvin starts: Aldon Smith collected 14 sacks in a situational role with San Francisco last season. Robert Mathis had three seasons with double-digit sacks as a reserve at various points in his career with Indianapolis. Years ago, a young Anthony Smith put together three consecutive seasons with double-digit sacks despite rarely starting for the Los Angeles Raiders. The plan is for Aldon Smith to become a starter this year. Mathis continued to produce as a starter. Anthony Smith's sack numbers fell. Clemons is the best comparison for Irvin. They have physical similarities. They are playing in the same scheme. The same coaches and personnel people decided they fit the same role.

Irvin will be a fun player to watch during training camp. Dexter Davis is another Seattle pass-rusher to keep in mind. He missed all but one game last season after suffering a hip injury and could be overlooked heading toward the season.

NFL general managers put their reputations on the line come draft day.

Some fare better than others.

The chart shows how many Pro Bowl players current NFC West GMs have drafted or helped draft over the past 10 years.

The numbers are not definitive. Current GMs from the division weren't always primary decision makers during the period in question. They do not deserve all the credit (or blame) for the players their teams drafted.

In some cases -- think first-team All-Pro choice NaVorro Bowman in San Francisco, for example -- very good players have not yet achieved Pro Bowl acclaim. In other cases, a single decision -- say, drafting Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay -- improved an organization's trajectory enough to launch other players to the Pro Bowl.

What we have, basically, is a starting point for discussion heading into the 2012 draft. Here's a look at each current NFC West GM and the associated 2002-2011 draft choices with Pro Bowls on their résumés:

• John Schneider, Seattle Seahawks (10): Schneider is entering his third draft as a GM after joining the Seahawks from Green Bay, where he worked under Ted Thompson. Seattle safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor went to the Pro Bowl after last season. Schneider was in Green Bay when the Packers drafted eventual Pro Bowl choices B.J. Raji, Javon Walker, Aaron Rodgers, Clay Matthews, Nick Collins, Greg Jennings, Aaron Kampman and Scott Wells. Three notable non-Pro Bowl picks: Jermichael Finley, Richard Sherman, Matt Flynn.
• Trent Baalke, San Francisco 49ers (8): Baalke was with the Washington Redskins when they selected Sean Taylor and Chris Cooley. He was with the 49ers in a sub-GM role when San Francisco selected Vernon Davis, Patrick Willis, Joe Staley, Frank Gore, Dashon Goldson and Michael Robinson. Three notable non-Pro Bowl picks: Bowman, Aldon Smith, Ray McDonald.
• Rod Graves, Arizona Cardinals (7): Graves has been the Cardinals' GM for the entire period in question, although personnel director Steve Keim is ultimately responsible for setting the draft board. Draft choices Larry Fitzgerald, Patrick Peterson, Antrel Rolle, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Anquan Boldin, Darnell Dockett and Antonio Smith achieved Pro Bowl status. Smith went to the Pro Bowl with Houston last season. That counts for the purposes of our discussion. Three notable non-Pro Bowl picks: Calais Campbell, Karlos Dansby, Daryl Washington.
• Les Snead, St. Louis Rams (4): Snead enters his first draft as a GM after a long run with Atlanta. The Falcons selected eventual Pro Bowl choices Matt Ryan, DeAngelo Hall, Roddy White and Matt Schaub when Snead was with the team. Again, the period in question covers only the last 10 drafts, excluding from consideration other players (Michael Vick comes to mind among Snead-era Falcons choices). Three notable non-Pro Bowl picks: Curtis Lofton, Thomas DeCoud, Laurent Robinson.

Whoa, the NFC West chat is getting under way now. Gotta run.

The NFL has told its game officials to err on the side of protecting defenseless players.

Blatant erring, the league could do without.

A roughing penalty Sunday against Washington Redskins linebacker London Fletcher for a hit on New England's Tom Brady played into perceptions the NFL offers special treatment for its prized quarterbacks. Would Alex Smith or Kevin Kolb or Tarvaris Jackson get such a call? I think they might, given the state of officiating. The seemingly clean hit Green Bay's Clay Matthews put on Minnesota's Christian Ponder comes to mind.

Fletcher was already moving in for the tackle when Brady attempted a late slide. Fletcher tackled Brady. Contact included a forearm to Brady's midsection, but no illegal contact. Matthews was not fined for his hit on Ponder. I doubt Fletcher will face a fine, either.

This was a bad call, I thought. Former NFL officiating vice president Mike Pereira, now an officiating analyst for Fox, agreed thusly: "He was sliding late and there was no hit to the head."

The league's emphasis on protecting defenseless players is a worthy one. This season could be one of over-correction. This will be a leading topic for the NFL during the coming offseason. I would expect some clarification of the rules and point of emphasis in an effort to find a balance.

The call against Fletcher was bad enough. Imagine if such a call moved a team into position for the winning field goal during a Super Bowl.

The facts: The St. Louis Rams fell to 2-9 with a 23-20 home defeat to the Arizona Cardinals.

The upside: Even the worst defeats tend to feature a bright spot or two.

• Nick Miller's 88-yard punt return for a touchdown gave the Rams a 7-0 lead. This tied for the third-longest punt return in franchise history. It was the Rams' first punt return for a touchdown since Dante Hall had one against Dallas in 2007.
• Chris Long collected his 10th sack of the season, a career high. Long and his father, Howie, joined Clay Matthews Sr. and Jr. as the only fathers and sons to record double-digit sack seasons since sacks became an official stat in 1982. Chris Long now has a sack in each of the Rams' last five games, a career-long stretch.
• Rookie Austin Pettis made a spectacular leaping grab for a 35-yard gain.
• Former Cardinals cornerback Rod Hood picked off a pass against his former team. Linebacker James Laurinaitis also picked off a pass, while linebacker Brady Poppinga forced and recovered a fumble. Pressure from Gary Gibson set up Laurinaitis' pick.
• The Rams prevented touchdowns on three of four red zone possessions for Arizona.
• Rookie first-round draft choice Robert Quinn collected his fifth sack of the season.
• Sam Bradford threw no interceptions.
• Receiver Brandon Lloyd's 16-yard scoring reception was his fourth since joining the Rams. He has one touchdown in each of the team's last three games.
• Safety Darian Stewart now has sacks in back-to-back weeks.
• The Rams allowed 106 net yards passing.

Looking ahead: The Rams visit the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13.

Five things I noticed while watching the St. Louis Rams during their 24-3 defeat at Green Bay in Week 6:

• Here we go again. The Rams started well on offense. Steven Jackson carried four times for 20 yards on the opening drive. Tight end Lance Kendricks' 45-yard catch-and-run was the key play as St. Louis moved into Packers territory. None of it meant anything when veteran kicker Josh Brown missed wide right from 47 yards. The Rams needed Brown to make that kick. Early setbacks too easily lead winless teams into thinking, "Here we go again." Brown has missed twice in three attempts from 40-49 yards this season. He now has a higher career percentage from 50-plus yards (68.3) than from 40-49 yards (67.9).
• Jason Smith played well. The Rams' right tackle won his matchup with Packers outside linebacker Clay Matthews. The only time Smith wound up on his back was when a teammate inadvertently tripped him while Smith was setting up in protection. Smith showed some nastiness in this game. He went after Matthews through the whistle and stood his ground when Matthews took offense. Mathews did collect a sack late in the game, but Smith got the better of him overall.
• Tight ends still not getting it done. Kendricks' big reception showed the Rams a glimpse of what they can expect from the position for the long term. The Rams aren't getting consistent enough play from their tight ends right now, however. Officials flagged Michael Hoomanawanui for holding Matthews. One of the tight ends was responsible for tripping Smith, the right tackle, on a pass set. Kendricks did not turn back to the ball in time when quarterback Sam Bradford rolled right and threw for him against pressure.
• Picking up the 7-10 split. At age 36, Al Harris is a veteran's veteran among NFL cornerbacks. Turns out the Packers' familiarity with him meant more than his familiarity with the Packers. Aaron Rodgers practiced against Harris for five seasons. He used the experience to his advantage in getting Harris to bite hard on a pump fake, freeing receiver Jordy Nelson for a 93-yard touchdown reception. Darian Stewart hustled over from his safety position to help out, only to overrun the play and take out Harris at the legs. Stewart took out Harris the way one bowling pin takes out another when picking up a split. Harris can be an aggressive corner. NFC West fans might recall him jumping a route for the winning interception against Seattle in a playoff game years ago. Rodgers apparently remembered that, too.
• The Brandon Lloyd trade was a necessity. If the Rams weren't quite sure heading into Week 6, watching receiver Danario Alexander drop what would have been a big gainer over the middle had to nudge them closer to making the deal for Lloyd. With the possible exception of Seattle during Koren Robinson's first few years with the team, I almost cannot recall an NFC West team dropping passes as frequently as the Rams drop them. They have a league-high 15 this season. This team isn't good enough to overcome little things like dropped passes, missed field goals, tight ends tripping tackles, cornerbacks biting hard on pump fakes, etc.

Enjoy your Saturday. I'll post observations from the other recent NFC West games as time permits.

» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 6:

Putting Carlos Rogers to the test. Detroit's Jim Schwartz and San Francisco's Jim Harbaugh pointed to the 49ers' front seven when asked why the team has improved in its secondary. The 49ers have had a strong front seven for years, but so clearly something else is different. Doug Clawson of ESPN Stats & Information passes along this note: Rogers, new to the 49ers this season, leads NFL defensive backs with three picks on passes traveling more than 10 yards downfield. The 49ers allowed 10 touchdowns with six interceptions on these throws last season. The TD-to-INT ratio is 2-to-7 this season. Let's see if the trend holds against the Lions. Matt Stafford is tied with Aaron Rodgers for the most scoring passes on these throws. Stafford has seven, five to Calvin Johnson.

Attacking the Lions on third down. Stafford has seven touchdown passes with only one interception on first down this season, matching Rodgers for the best totals in the league. The production hasn't been consistent on third down. Stafford has completed only 50.9 percent of his third-down passes, with two touchdowns, two interceptions and weak efficiency numbers (22.3 Total QBR, 71.3 NFL passer rating). The absence of a conventional ground game could, in theory, set up more third-and-long situations. But according to John Parolin of ESPN Stats & Information, that isn't necessarily the case. A lower than average percentage of the Lions' third-down plays (44.1) have required at least eight yards for a first down. Stafford's first-down-conversion percentage (26.9) on these third-and-long plays ranks only 15th. That lags behind Alex Smith (31.2) and Tarvaris Jackson (30.0). There's been some boom to go with the bust on third-and-long for the Lions, however. Stafford ranks among the NFL's top three in touchdowns (two) and completions of 30 yards or longer (three) on third-and-8 or longer.

Watch for the play-action game. The Lions have thrown out of the shotgun formation more times than any team in the league. They also hand off from the shotgun, keeping teams honest enough for Stafford to lead the NFL in play-action passing in these three areas: completion percentage (80.0), Total QBR (97.5) and NFL passer rating (150.4). The 49ers rank fifth in completion percentage allowed against play-action (53.8), but only 28th in yards per attempt (10.5) and 31st in yards per reception (19.1). Why such a disparity? The Dallas Cowboys set up their 77-yard overtime reception against the 49ers in Week 2 with a play-action fake that worked beautifully. The 49ers' safeties need to stay disciplined.

Mismatch of all mismatches. The Green Bay Packers have scored more points in third quarters (49) than the St. Louis Rams have scored in all their games combined (46). Second quarters are often when teams hit their strides on offense. The Rams have only three second-quarter points all season. Green Bay has 44. Sure, the Packers have played one additional game, but that doesn't begin to account for the disparity. The Packers scored more points against Denver in Week 4 (49) than the Rams have scored this season.

Clay Matthews alert. The Rams' Sam Bradford has absorbed 18 sacks through four games, putting him on pace to take 72 of them over the season. That would rank tied for second in the sack era (since 1982) with Randall Cunningham, three behind David Carr's record. The Packers' Matthews has only one sack through five games. He had 8.5 sacks at this point last season, thanks to a pair of three-sack games. What's up? The Packers are using more three-man rushes. Cullen Jenkins is no longer around to attract attention from opposing lines. Matthews has also been dealing with a quadriceps injury. Might this be his get-well game?

The San Francisco 49ers are 2-1 and leading the NFC West heading into Week 4. Does that suddenly make them division favorites with the St. Louis Rams sitting 0-3?

"I guess I'm leaning toward San Francisco, but I don't feel confident," Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. said this week. "The Rams could finish strong. I can't see Seattle doing it. And I think Arizona is a six-win team, but they are all kind of six-win teams."

The 49ers won six of their final 11 games last season. That makes them 8-6 over their last 14 regular-season games. The Rams and Seahawks are 5-9 during the regular season over the same span. The Cardinals are 3-11.

With that, a closer look at the 49ers from Williamson's perspective:

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  Jamie Sabau/Getty ImagesRunning room has been harder to come by for Frank Gore this season.
  On the struggling ground game: "Frank Gore doesn’t look good. He is not attacking things. Gore looks like he is playing hurt. He has run so competitively in the past. He would not just go in the tank. I think Kendall Hunter is very interesting. He looks like he is playing at a different speed when he goes in there. I don't know if Gore has lost a step, but there is no running room for him. You can see where Gore is frustrated. Their line is abysmal. It is amazing."
• On quarterback Alex Smith: "Smith has exceeded my expectations. He does not make a lot of mistakes. You can grind out some wins. I give Jim Harbaugh credit. He is manufacturing offense. It is a real test for Harbaugh because Smith is so limited. I just don’t think he throws the football very well. He is a good athlete, but he is not big and strong, doesn't make difficult throws, doesn't handle the rush real well, doesn't anticipate things real well. But he is smart and I do think he has some ability. I thought Harbaugh could turn him into a serviceable West Coast guy if he is all he is cracked up to be."
• On the offense overall: "They finally got Vernon Davis involved. They use a lot of double tight end sets. Delanie Walker is a nice player, but too often those guys have had to help the offensive line, especially Davis. I would like to see what the offense can do with both Braylon Edwards and Michael Crabtree healthy for a game or two. Those guys have obvious inconsistencies, but they also have obvious talent. They might be able to open up room for one another, for Davis, for the run game, make life easier for Smith. Overall, if they turn the ball over, they are done."
• On the defense: "Their front seven is fantastic. I don't know if everyone knows how good Justin Smith is, but he is one of the 10 best players in the league on defense. Patrick Willis is, to me, the best second-level defender in football. I'm not saying best linebacker because it's not fair to compare him to DeMarcus Ware, Clay Matthews, those guys. But Willis is the best second-level defender and it's not even close. They have two other guys, NaVorro Bowman and Ray McDonald, playing out of this world. Bowman is a big-time find. The 49ers are tough on all down-and-distances. Not only is the nose tackle (Isaac Sopoaga) playing well, but then he comes off the field and Smith and McDonald go inside, and then the outside guys are a handful, too. Aldon Smith has flashed, Parys Haralson, Ahmad Brooks. I don't love Donte Whitner, but he is an upgrade. They are a corner short even though Carlos Rogers has played very well."

That completes our four-team checkup with Williamson. You can reach him on Twitter as well.

Looks like my colleague Paul Kuharsky woke up on the wrong side of the debate again.

Our esteemed (steamed?) AFC South blogger took a few shots at ESPN.com’s Power Rankings for top overall NFL players. He specifically took offense with those of us who refused to rank more than a few non-quarterbacks on our 10-man ballots.

Quarterbacks held eight of the top 11 spots in the composite rankings. There was a tie for the 10th spot between Michael Vick and Andre Johnson.

"If we rate these quarterbacks so highly," Kuharsky said in Dan Graziano's main piece, "how can we not rate the guy we said was tops at disrupting quarterbacks highly too? Makes no sense."

Kuharsky was referring to DeMarcus Ware, who finished 12th overall, receiving votes only from AFC North blogger James Walker (No. 5) and from Kuharsky (No. 10).

Quarterbacks filled out the top seven spots on my ballot. I would have considered listing QBs 10 deep had I known so much heat would radiate from my AFC South brother.

Here’s a question for Paul: If he values pass-rushers so much, why not find room on his ballot for Dwight Freeney, the player he ranked as the NFL’s best pass-rusher back in March?

"I think Freeney is the best pass-rusher, but DeMarcus Ware is the better overall player and a tremendous pass-rusher, too," Kuharsky said when I called him Tuesday.

That thinking makes sense. Kuharsky ranked Ware as his No. 1 linebacker and No. 2 pass-rusher in those power rankings. After ranking quarterbacks first through fourth in the overall rankings, he went with Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Andre Johnson, Troy Polamalu, Clay Matthews and Ware. He considered finding a spot for Freeney, but figured the vote would have been wasted.

"Maybe I gave in a little bit there to the crowd in terms of how well he was liked by everyone else, knowing Freeney wasn’t getting in there no matter how I voted," he said. "I presumed Ware would definitely make our top 10. I knew Freeney would not because I was his lone advocate."

Kuharsky and I weren’t all that far apart in our thinking, after all. I ranked Freeney second among pass-rushers on my ballot. The other voters ranked him between third and eighth.

We both ranked Peyton Manning over Tom Brady for the top overall spot. I would take the much younger Aaron Rodgers over both if building a franchise to contend for the longer term. I could see Rodgers assuming the top spot a year from now.

Manning got the edge over Brady on my ballot because he's more important to his team's success, and Brady's longstanding edge in playoff games hasn't held up recently.

I rounded out my overall top 10 with Johnson, Polamalu and Patrick Willis. Finding room for Ware and Matthews would have been ideal, but there wasn’t room for everyone. Matthews' value as an outside pass-rusher makes him more valuable, arguably, than the San Francisco 49ers' Willis. But Willis can do it all, and he did have six sacks last season while anchoring a defense that allowed less than 3.5 yards per carry.

ESPN.com’s NFL writers rank the top 10 linebackers in the league today. Next week: Top 10 cornerbacks.

San Francisco 49ers linebacker Patrick Willis beat out a strong and diverse field for top billing in ESPN.com's latest positional power rankings.

All eight panelists ranked Willis among their top three, elevating the 26-year-old perennial Pro Bowler above James Harrison and DeMarcus Ware as our No. 1 linebacker in the NFL.

Even 12-time Pro Bowler Ray Lewis, the dominant linebacker of his era, pointed to Willis as a worthy successor to his undisputed reign. Not that Lewis is finished just yet. He placed fifth in the rankings behind Willis, Harrison, Ware and the Green Bay Packers' Clay Matthews. But there was no more complete linebacker than Willis.

"Nobody in the NFL plays their position better than Patrick Willis, and that is saying a lot," said Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc., whose insights helped shape my ballot. "He is as good a linebacker as Peyton Manning is a quarterback, as Andre Johnson is a receiver, as Adrian Peterson is a running back. He has no weaknesses."

Willis, a three-time Associated Press All-Pro first-team selection, is the first 49ers player since Ronnie Lott to earn Pro Bowl honors in each of his first four seasons. Joe Thomas and Peterson are the only other 2007 draft choices with four Pro Bowls.

Apples and oranges: Comparing linebackers from 3-4 schemes to their 4-3 counterparts proved problematic for some panelists. AFC East blogger Tim Graham ranked Ware first among pass-rushers three weeks ago, but only ninth among linebackers.

"Patrick Willis, Brian Urlacher and Ray Lewis would be great linebackers in a 3-4 or a 4-3," Graham explained. "DeMarcus Ware and Cameron Wake might not even be linebackers if they played in Indianapolis, Tennessee or Minnesota. At some point, I had to value elite pass-rushing abilities on my list even though those players aren't universal-type linebackers."

There was room for differing views. ESPN.com's John Clayton and AFC North blogger James Walker ranked Ware first among linebackers and first among pass-rushers. AFC South blogger Paul Kuharsky ranked Ware first among linebackers and second among pass-rushers.

"Separating Ware, Willis and Harrison is like splitting hairs, because it really depends on what you want in a linebacker," said Walker, who went with Ware, Willis and Harrison atop his ballot. "Ware is a slightly better pass-rusher than Harrison, and Willis is a future Hall of Famer in his prime. Age also has to be a consideration if you’re building a defense, and Harrison will be 33 in May. But they're all great."

First things first: Graham and NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert joined me in ranking Willis first. AFC West blogger Bill Williamson had Willis second only to Harrison.

"When I think of linebacker play in the current day, James Harrison pops out," Bill Williamson said. "I think he’s the gold standard of complete linebacker play. Look at his signature play in the Super Bowl against Arizona. That play will forever be part of NFL lore. Patrick Willis, who is also a great player, doesn’t have that play on his résumé. Plus, Harrison is an ornery cuss on the field. The man was born to be a 'backer."

Willis can't match Harrison in Super Bowl memories -- he could use a quarterback, for starters -- but he's not hurting for signature plays:

• There was the time, as a rookie in 2007, when Willis tracked down and tackled Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Sean Morey 62 yards downfield, in overtime, to save the game.
• There was the time in 2008, when Willis picked off Seattle Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and weaved his way 86 yards to the tying third-quarter touchdown -- the longest interception return by a linebacker since Willis entered the league.
• There was Willis' crushing hit against the New York Jets' Brad Smith in 2008, the hit that left Hasselbeck with a broken rib in 2009 and the two-game stretch last season when Willis collected 28 tackles despite wearing a cast following in-season hand surgery.

Lewis pointed to Willis when ESPN's Dana Jacobson recently asked him which young linebacker reminded Lewis of himself.

"I just love the way he plays the game," Lewis said. "He plays the game with a fire. He reminds me of myself -- a lot, a lot, a lot."

Unanimous decisions: The top five finishers received votes from all eight panelists. The gaps between highest and lowest votes fell between four and seven places for all but Willis, who ranked no lower than third.

Seifert ranked Lewis third. I had Lewis 10th and feared I might be measuring him against himself. No list of top linebackers would be complete without him, I thought, but a younger generation is taking over.

Hugs for Suggs: Lewis' teammate, Terrell Suggs, finished just out of our top 10 despite getting a No. 5 ranking from Kuharsky.

"I unabashedly love Suggs, and frankly would have placed him higher if I thought there was any way he needed help to crack the top 10," Kuharsky said. "To me, there is a great deal of subjectivity in ranking this position when mixing guys from 4-3s and 3-4s, so I did a lot of know-them-when-I-see-them ranking. Suggs is absolutely a top-10 guy to me."

Clayton, Seifert, Graham and I did not list Suggs on our ballots while searching for the right mix of 3-4 and 4-3 talent.

Fit to be tied: The players tied for ninth on our list illustrate the varied criteria for the position. Kansas City's Tamba Hali is a pure pass-rusher in the Chiefs' 3-4 defense. Carolina's Jon Beason is a traditional 4-3 linebacker with the versatility to play multiple spots. He changed positions twice in 2010.

Beason peaked at No. 5 on my ballot. NFC South blogger Pat Yasinskas had Beason sixth and considered ranking him higher.

"There was a time when I would have ranked Beason in the same echelon as Willis," Yasinskas said. "I think he has a chance to re-emerge if Carolina can put a better team on the field, particularly by getting better at defensive tackle and keeping blockers off Beason. If that happens, I think Beason can be as good as any linebacker in the league."

Youth on his side: New England's Jerod Mayo appeared on six of eight ballots, ranking sixth overall between Lewis and Urlacher. At 25, Mayo was one of two linebackers younger than Willis to earn a spot among the top 10. Matthews, 24, was the other. Graham ranked Mayo third.

"Nose tackle Vince Wilfork might be the anchor of the Patriots' defense, but Mayo is the one who ties their defense together," Graham said. "Mayo is a tackling machine who compensates for shortcomings at outside linebacker and injuries along the defensive line. He would be a star in any system."

On an island: Four linebackers received a single vote. That list featured Brian Orakpo (Clayton), Lance Briggs (Seifert), London Fletcher (Walker) and Wake (Graham).

Best doesn't mean most valuable: Matt Williamson called linebacker the toughest position to evaluate. I'll close by passing along a few of his thoughts:

• "Willis is so exceptional it would be a coin flip with Ware. Willis has no weaknesses, but if I were a general manager, I would take Ware because pass-rushers are so hard to find. You can get away with a C-level middle linebacker and still have a good defense. You can have a two-down run-stopper and pull him out in nickel."
• "Ray Lewis would not be in my top five at this point. For his age, he is still exceptional and a borderline Pro Bowler, but he doesn't run like he did. I remember when I was with the Browns, I looked at every report the team had written since 1999 and Lewis had the highest grade ever given out. He was nearly perfect."
• "Hali is a one-trick pony, a pass-rusher, but he is great at it -- as good as any pass-rusher in the league."
• "Beason is like Patrick Willis, but he is 95 percent of him. He can play outside, inside, he's smart -- but there is so little around him that people don't realize how good he is."
• "Pass rushing is Clay Matthews' greatest gift, but he is the prototypical outside linebacker. He's a great technician and way more explosive and athletic than people realize. He's good in coverage, not great, but they line him up all over."
• "London Fletcher is underrated, but not in this conversation. How Beason is to Willis, Fletcher is to Lewis. He is smaller and slower than Lewis, good among older guys."
• "Brian Urlacher is still a really good player, but the top 10 might be a stretch. I would take him ahead of Lewis, behind Beason and Willis among 'Mike' 'backers. He is good in coverage. People forget that he was a safety at New Mexico. He doesn't run like he used to and is just not as dynamic as he was in the day."
• "The Steelers have the best linebackers in the league. LaMarr Woodley is very strong and in that conversation too. Definitely top 15. Harrison is great against the run, extremely strong and one of the few linebackers in the league that is a difference-maker from an attitude standpoint. He brings attitude to the table like a Jack Lambert or a Dick Butkus or a Ray Lewis type. He is feared. He is one of the best leverage players in the league, great in pursuit, tenacious as hell. The other guy to know about is Lawrence Timmons. He will be spectacular."

Vishal from parts unknown stretched the NFC West mailbag at the seams with a two-part, nearly 400-word dispatch critiquing my ballot ranking the 10 best coaches in the NFL. I'll break out the main points in bullet items before responding. He wanted to know ...

• Why past performance mattered more for head coaches, specifically Mike Shanahan, than it did for players in our previous power rankings;
• How I could justify leaving off the Atlanta Falcons' Mike Smith based in part on playoff losses to teams with inferior records, since those teams advanced to the Super Bowl;
• Why Tom Coughlin ranked third despite enjoying the organizational support and stability that contributed to a lower ranking for Mike Tomlin.

Mike Sando: These were difficult decisions. Some of the trade-offs weren't very satisfying. I put together my ballot over the weekend. Upon revisiting it Tuesday morning, I initially thought I'd left off Smith by accident. Then I remembered he was basically just an odd man out. He's a guy I do think of as being one of the best coaches in the league. John Harbaugh is another one. Those guys are deserving of the recognition they received from our voters. I could have felt good about including them as well.

The point you make on Coughlin and Tomlin is compelling. The Giants have strong ownership. They have had only three general managers in the last 30-plus years. I stand by the No. 3 ranking, but acknowledge that I might have considered ranking him lower if this conversation occurred prior to voting.

Coughlin ranked higher than Tomlin on my list for a few reasons I haven't explained:

• Coughlin brought quick success and stability to Jacksonville when the Jaguars were an expansion franchise. That was impressive.
• The Giants became more productive offensively under his watch, even with a young, inconsistent quarterback. Eli Manning is not the greatest passer. The Giants have ranked among the NFL's top eight in scoring four times under Coughlin after never ranking higher than 12th over a 15-year span under four other coaches.
• Coughlin showed a capacity to change during his Giants tenure, becoming more responsive to players.That was important during the Super Bowl season.

Your question about Shanahan is easier to answer. The abilities a coach possesses early in his career do not necessarily deteriorate the way a player's physical skills deteriorate. Shanahan's 152-108 regular-season record, 8-5 postseason record, nine winning seasons and two Super Bowl titles worked in his favor.

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Doug from Newbury Park, Calif., wonders whether I thought the San Francisco 49ers replaced Gary Plummer because they felt he was too critical as the team's radio color commentatory.

Mike Sando: Plummer has been outspoken for years. If his outspokenness were a problem, the team presumably would have replaced him years ago. He had handled the job since 1998 and never held back. Fans accustomed to Plummer will be paying close attention to see how his replacement, Eric Davis, couches his criticisms. I expect Davis to speak his mind in his own style -- a style less combative than the one Plummer brought to the job as a former linebacker.

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Joe from Phoenix wonders whether the St. Louis Rams could trade out of the 14th overall choice with a team looking to draft running back Mark Ingram in that spot. He thinks teams are better off with one dominant runner than a committee approach, and he wonders specifically whether New England might be a team to watch from a trade standpoint.

Mike Sando: The Patriots traded up to get Daniel Graham in 2002. They traded up into the 13th spot for Ty Warren a year later. New England has been much, much more likely to trade down in the first round over more recent drafts, however.

• 2003: The Patriots traded down from the 19th spot with Baltimore, which took Kyle Boller.
• 2007: They traded out of the 28th spot with San Francisco (Joe Staley).
• 2008: They traded down from the seventh pick with New Orleans (Sedrick Ellis).
• 2009: They traded out of the 26th spot with Green Bay (Clay Matthews).
• 2009: They traded out of the 23rd spot with Baltimore (Michael Oher).
• 2010: They traded out of the 22nd pick with Denver (Demaryius Thomas).
• 2010: They traded out of the 24th spot with Dallas (Dez Bryant).

The Patriots would likely have to part with their third-round choice, 92nd overall, to jump three spots to No. 14. Recent history says that is unlikely.

As for running backs, the trend has been toward having multiple backs share the load. No more than seven backs in one season have reached 300 carries since 2007. There were at least nine backs with 300 or more carries in 10 of the previous 12 seasons, peaking with 13 in 2003.

The Patriots have had only one such player -- Corey Dillon in 2004 -- since Bill Belichick became head coach.

None of this prevents New England from climbing three spots to nab Ingram. If it happens, however, it'll be a little surprising.

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Rob from Phoenix wonders whether the Cardinals would select Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley with the fifth overall choice, if available, even though the team doesn't have obvious needs on its defensive line. Texas A&M pass-rusher Von Miller would not be available under this scenario.

Mike Sando: The scouting reports say Fairley projects better in a 4-3 defense. The same could be said for Cardinals defensive end Darnell Dockett, however, and the Cardinals have learned the hard way about favoring need (tackle Levi Brown) over value (running back Adrian Peterson) when picking fifth.

So, if Fairley is available and clearly the best player, the Cardinals would have to consider him. But I tend to think he projects as a higher-risk prospect based on concerns over his emotional stability and the consistency of his effort. That could scare off Arizona. Throw in other factors -- fit and need specifically -- and I envision the Cardinals going in another direction.

Chris Long's increased sack production and overall strong play last season moved him into the periphery of discussions about the NFL's best pass-rushers.

Long was the lone NFC West player to draw a vote in ESPN.com's recently posted power rankings for pass-rushers. Tim Graham of the AFC East ranked Long 10th on his ballot, a reflection of the progress Long continues to make.

"He was always around the ball and led the NFL in quarterback hurries, according to Football Outsiders," Graham said. "He was tied for sixth in quarterback hits. He didn't have the best sack total, but sacks aren't everything."

I agree. Long came close to cracking my top 10, but the players I ranked had generally produced at a higher level over the course of multiple seasons. Projecting their future production seemed more reliable, although Long's current trajectory suggests he'll gain traction in the discussion.

A quick look at my top 10:

1. DeMarcus Ware, Dallas Cowboys. He was first on seven of our eight ballots.
2. Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis Colts. The Colts' offense and indoor stadium sometimes give Freeney a huge edge.
3. Tamba Hali, Kansas City Chiefs. Hali was the most physically dominant pass-rusher I saw last season. He had 14.5 sacks to prove it.
4. Clay Matthews, Green Bay Packers. Made a case for league MVP last season, particularly early.
5. James Harrison, Pittsburgh Steelers. Bad intentions add to the fear factor.
6. Jared Allen, Minnesota Vikings. My perception is he has become less consistently dominant, but the bar was set high.
7. LaMarr Woodley, Pittsburgh Steelers. Thirty-five sacks and six forced fumbles over the last three seasons.
8. Julius Peppers, Chicago Bears. Peppers would rank higher on a list of best defensive ends. He was probably undervalued here.
9. John Abraham, Atlanta Falcons. Collected 13 sacks at age 32.
10. Trent Cole, Philadelphia Eagles. Produces consistently and almost never misses games.

Back to the NFC West: Chris Clemons, Raheem Brock, Justin Smith and James Hall joined Long in causing problems for opposing offenses last season.

Smith had 8.5 sacks, a high number for a 3-4 defensive end.