NFC West: Denver Broncos
Yes, the start of training camps is two months away, but it’s never too early to consider the coming season. A look at the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the 49ers in 2012:
Dream scenario (14-2): The 49ers pick up where they left off last season. They continue to force turnovers and protect the football while dictating field position with their dominant special teams. This time, however, the offense has more firepower.
Receiver Michael Crabtree backs up coach Jim Harbaugh's comments suggesting Crabtree has all-time-great hands. A rejuvenated Randy Moss strikes fear into secondaries. Quarterback Alex Smith, armed with sufficient weapons, strikes for explosive plays more frequently. The offensive line, stabilized by Alex Boone's emergence as a top young guard, sustains drives on third downs and finishes them in the red zone.
Rookie receiver A.J. Jenkins hits stride in December as the 49ers clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs heading into Week 17. Colin Kaepernick throws for 350 yards and four touchdowns in the regular-season finale as San Francisco eliminates division-rival Arizona from playoff contention. Sufficiently rested, the 49ers score a dominating victory over Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, delivering San Francisco its first Super Bowl title since the 1994 season.
Nightmare scenario (6-10): The odds catch up to Smith when the Detroit Lions' Ndamukong Suh delivers a controversial hit at the knees in Week 2. Kaepernick isn't ready, Moss loses interest and the offense can't score enough points. Meanwhile, Peyton Manning has the Denver Broncos looking like contenders.
The 49ers realize they were fortunate to have Smith start 18 games the previous season despite taking 51 sacks. They realize how risky it was going into the season without a proven right guard. How hard would it have been to pay one of the veteran options the team considered in free agency? That's a question reporters keep asking, even though none of them said much before the season. The question stings now that Smith is done for the season and Kaepernick is running for his life.
Tough defense and special teams keep the 49ers reasonably competitive. The coaching staff does its best to stabilize the situation. The 49ers compete and steal victories from other teams with quarterback issues. In the end, however, they become the latest team to suffer a hard fall after posting a glittering record the previous season. Rock bottom arrives when Sando notes, again, that the 13 teams finishing 13-3 from 2004 to 2010 averaged 8.3 victories the following season.
Video: Wrapping up Manning's desert visit
We know Peyton Manning visited the Denver Broncos and Arizona Cardinals over the weekend.
We do not know what he will do next. NFL teams do not know. Manning might not know.
Billionaire NFL owners accustomed to getting their way appear utterly helpless as they wait for answers. Imagine the pressure team executives must feel as they report to ownership on their failure to secure even a visit from Manning. These owners cannot even know whether Manning's surgically repaired neck will allow the quarterback to play again, but they would happily gamble millions on the prospect that Manning will be OK.
The latest report from ESPN's Chris Mortensen and Adam Schefter quotes sources as saying the Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs are "no longer considered contenders" for Manning. The quarterback himself has said nothing publicly.
Public declarations from Tennessee Titans owner Bud Adams seem aimed at appeasing fans hoping the team will bring back Manning to the state where he played his college ball.
"He is the man I want, period," Adams said. "And the people that work for me understand that. They know who I want. I want Mr. Manning with the Titans and I will be disappointed if it doesn’t happen."
Does anyone really think Manning will respond favorably to an owner essentially popping off? As with so much of this story, no one seems to know for sure.
Manning's meticulous preparation as a player suggests he'll make a well-informed decision. It's an upset if he rushes into anything.
Seahawks draft watch: Pick from Denver
Around the NFC West: Cards' Wells a 'beast'?
Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando
Darren Urban of azcardinals.com says Cardinals first-round draft choice Beanie Wells has dropped from 247 to 229 pounds since beginning workouts under acclaimed strength and conditioning coach John Lott. That has to be a good sign for the injury-slowed running back from Ohio State (Wells, not Lott). Lott: "I think this kid has a chance to do something. He's got the tools. ... He could be a beast."
Also from Urban: Lott pushes players during a hike up Camelback Mountain.
Clare Farnsworth of Seahawks.com previews Jim Mora's climb with Roger Goodell on Mount Rainier. Farnsworth: "A crew from NFL Films is on hand to capture the climb and also produce national and local TV spots for the alliance between the league and United Way. KING-TV's Paul Silvi was planning to take part in the climb and Sam Farmer, the NFL writer from the Los Angeles Times, was planning to make the first leg to Camp Muir with the group."
Gregg Bell of the Associated Press describes Goodell as an avid skier accustomed to 11,000-foot elevations in Colorado.
Josh Bean of the Mobile Press-Register says Shaun Alexander has speaking engagements in Alabama this week through Fellowship of Christain Athletes.
Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times says Seahawks fullback Owen Schmitt pleaded not guilty to a DUI charge.
Eric D. Williams of the Tacoma News Tribune says the Seahawks must improve on third down. Williams: "The Seahawks ranked last in the league in time of possession. Controlling the clock is key because it keeps the other team's offense off the field and allows your offense to get into scoring position."
Matt Maiocco of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat says the 49ers' exhibition opener against Denver carries additional meaning because the team will be looking to settle its quarterback competition. Would Broncos defensive coordinator Mike Nolan go out of his way to fluster Alex Smith? Maiocco: "When the 49ers played the Packers early in the exhibition season last year, there was some talk around the league that the 49ers did more defensive game-planning than what's usually expected in one of those games. The conspiracy theorists reasoned that Nolan and the 49ers wanted to go to great lengths to ensure Rodgers did not come to Candlestick and have a good day as the Packers' starter."
Phillip Matier and Andrew Ross of the San Francisco Chronicle says a local politician is trying to exempt the 49ers from seeking competitive bids in building a stadium. Said a spokesman for the politician: "We don't want to take the chance of losing the 49ers."
David Fucillo of Niners Nation takes a shot at predicting the 49ers' 53-man roster heading into the 2009 season. He gives them six receivers and three quarterbacks, with Nate Davis beating out Damon Huard. Keeping Huard on the opening-day roster would guarantee his 2009 salary.
3k of Turf Show Times isn't opposed to the Rams giving players second chances. 3k: "This is the difference between Fakhir Brown and Claude Wroten, people who have made mistakes and people who have made mistakes part of their lifestyles. ... People who make mistakes deserve a second chance, deserve a shot at redemption. People who squander those second chances ... don't deserve the same breaks as those have yet to receive them."
Cedric Golden of the Austin American-Statesman says the NFL's scare tactics at its rookie symposium didn't affect Rams rookie Jason Smith as much as a speech from Steelers coach Mike Tomlin. Smith: "When a person like him is speaking about a place I'm trying to go [winning a Super Bowl], I take it very personally and if he tells me to jump, I'm going to jump."
Seattle picks up 2010 first-rounder from Denver
Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando
RENTON, Wash. -- Hmmm. The Seahawks just shipped the 37th overall choice in the draft to the Broncos for Denver's first-round choice in 2010.
Adding a first-round choice next year is terrific. But to bail on a second-round choice in a draft perceived to have great value in that round? Seattle landed tight end John Carlson in the second round a year ago. It's tough to pass on a player of that caliber.
We'll find out from Seahawks president Tim Ruskell what Seattle was thinking and what the risks and rewards might have been.
Double Coverage: Cutler trade and the draft
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| Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images | |
| Jay Cutler is out of Denver, but the trade that sent the quarterback to Chicago will help shape the Broncos' roster. |
Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando and Bill Williamson
Jay Cutler's divorce from Denver is final. Now the Broncos, armed with the picks they acquired from Chicago for the Pro Bowl quarterback, must determine how to proceed in the draft.
AFC West blogger Bill Williamson and his NFC West counterpart, Mike Sando, debate the options while exploring how the Seahawks and 49ers could affect the Broncos' future at quarterback.
Mike Sando: Quarterbacks are a high-risk proposition at the top of the draft, but that's also where teams tend to find the great ones. Nine quarterbacks drafted since 1965 have been enshrined in the Hall of Fame. Seven of them were first-round picks, including a guy named Elway. If the experts are right in saying Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez are the franchise quarterbacks in this draft, shouldn't the Broncos consider trading up to get one? They certainly have the firepower.
Bill Williamson: There's no way the Broncos should trade up that high if it means giving up both the 12th and 18th overall picks. Sure, Denver could get a top-five pick in return, but I don't think it's worth the risk -- even for a quarterback.
The picks acquired for Cutler are too valuable to risk on Stafford, Sanchez or a player along the lines of Boston College defensive tackle B.J. Raji.
The idea is to get a lot of quality players here. If Denver is going to survive the Cutler trade, it will need to maximize those picks. Trading up and drafting Raji or Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry would be great for a needy defense, but the Broncos need to address multiple areas, not just one. The Cutler trade does allow the Broncos to address several areas in the draft instead of rolling the dice on just one.
Mike Sando: More than a few 49ers fans watched with interest while the Broncos figured out where Cutler would wind up. His destination wasn't San Francisco, but the 49ers and their NFC West rivals could still shape the Broncos' quarterback situation beyond the Cutler era.
The Rams probably have too many needs and too much money invested in Marc Bulger to consider a quarterback at No. 2, but the Seahawks and 49ers could draft one. Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. told me he thought the 49ers would be crazy to pass on Sanchez at No. 10 if the USC quarterback remained available at that point. The NFC West could foul up Denver's plans if the Broncos are hoping to find a quarterback in the first round.
Mailbag: Emerging players in the NFC West
Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando
Rudy from Chicago writes: Sando! For each of the 4 divisional teams, which little-known players do you think are poised to have big seasons? We all have ideas as to how the big stars will play, but what about the up-and-comers? Thanks Sando, great blog.
Mike Sando: Thanks. Good question. I'm not sure each of the teams will have a little-known player enjoy the sort of season Steve Breaston put together in 2008. I'll be some of our regular contributors can step up with suggestions. I'll take a stab here.
Does John Greco become a productive starting offensive lineman for the Rams? Not if the team drafts a starting left tackle, as expected. Keenan Burton might be a candidate at receiver. Someone beyond Donnie Avery has to catch the passes. I would exclude Avery from the discussion because he played extensively as a rookie. His numbers could spike by default if the Rams do not find other starting-caliber receivers.
Cornerback Tarell Brown could get a chance in San Francisco. Free safety Dashon Goldson will get a chance. Jason Hill and/or Josh Morgan could take the next step as receivers. And a healthy Brandon Jones could take the next step.
In Seattle, does Will Herring get a shot at linebacker and make the most of it? Does Josh Wilson take the next step at cornerback? Red Bryant could improve if he can avoid injuries. Lawrence Jackson could improve, though he was a first-round pick, so not a lesser-known guy.
In Arizona, defensive end Calais Campbell will get more playing time, as could Kenny Iwebema. Early Doucet could emerge if given a chance at receiver. I'm not sure he'll get that chance given the people ahead of him.
Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando
Now we know why the 49ers weren't knee deep in the trade talk for Jay Cutler. They apparently wanted to experience meaningful participation in the next two drafts.
Quarterbacks are important, no question, and the 49ers haven't had a dynamic one for too long. But the price Chicago paid for Cutler -- 2009 first- and third-round choices, plus a 2010 first-round choice and quarterback Kyle Orton -- carries serious sticker shock. The Bears also picked up the 2009 fifth-round choice Seattle had sent to Denver in the Keary Colbert trade, but that qualifies as a minor throw-in.
Assuming the 49ers had the option, would they have been wise to pay that kind of ransom for Cutler? The Broncos acquired the 18th and 84th overall choices in the 2009 draft as part of the deal. Joe Flacco was the 18th player chosen in 2008. Art Monk was the 18th overall choice in 1980. Hall of Famer Bobby Mitchell was the 84th player chosen -- in 1958.
Most of the players chosen in those spots don't jump out as perennial Pro Bowl types. The Bears also went into the deal with an edge. They had picked up a third-round compensatory selection, 99th overall, so they felt better about trading No. 84.
The 49ers hold the 10th, 43rd and 74th choices in the first three rounds this year. Those choices are considerably more valuable than the ones Chicago had to offer.
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NFC West teams enter the 2009 draft with every one of their original selections except the fifth-round choice Seattle sent to Denver for Keary Colbert.
No teams in the division are holding choices from another team.
The draft order for the first three rounds is set. The order for the fourth through seventh rounds will change once the NFL awards compensatory choices during its annual spring meetings, which begin the week of March 22.
Broncos have interest in Cardinals' Arrington
Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando
The Broncos are expected to visit with Cardinals free agent J.J. Arrington as they look to upgrade their situation at running back.
That was the word from John Clayton on "SportsCenter" a few minutes ago. The Broncos also have interest in Correll Buckhalter.
Arrington can be an effective change-of-pace back and kickoff returner. The Cardinals used him extensively in their four-receiver packages.
Playoff countdown: Seedings through Week 11
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As NFL teams fight for positioning heading toward the playoffs, we take a quick look at the top six seeds in each conference heading into Week 12.
If the current standings held, the AFC playoffs would feature the Ravens visiting the Jets and the Colts visiting the Broncos. The NFC playoffs would feature the Redskins visiting the Cardinals and the Bucs visiting the Packers.
The Titans, Steelers, Giants and Panthers would have first-round playoff byes. The Redskins defeated the Cardinals at FedEx Field in Week 3. The rematch would be at University of Phoenix Stadium, where the Cardinals haven't lost this season.
Four teams that won at least 10 games last season have losing records so far: Seattle (10-6 to 2-8), Cleveland (10-6 to 3-6), San Diego (11-5 to 4-6) and Jacksonville (11-5 to 4-6).
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The Seahawks have dropped one pass for every 13.9 attempts this season, easily the worst in the NFC West based on the drop totals Pat Yasinskas lists on his NFC South blog.
Pat's list shows the Dolphins as the only team without a dropped pass this season. The Eagles, Lions and Broncos have the most.
I took the drop totals for NFC West teams to calculate how frequently teams in the division suffer from dropped balls. The Cardinals have the best receivers in the division and that comes through in the chart. Their receivers have dropped one pass for every 36 attempts.
No wonder Matt Hasselbeck is so eager to welcome back Bobby Engram and Deion Branch.
Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando
The Rams' unsettled ownership situation has cost them power at the league level, Daniel Kaplan of the St. Louis Business Journal reports.
Lions owner Bill Ford Jr. has replaced Rams executive John Shaw on the labor comittee. Pat Bowlen (Broncos) and Jerry Richardson (Panthers) co-chair the committee, which tackles the most important issues facing the league. Other members include Mike Brown (Bengals), Clark Hunt (Chiefs), Jerry Jones (Cowboys), Robert Kraft (Patriots), John Mara (Giants), Mark Murphy (Packers), Art Rooney II (Steelers) and Ford.
Seattle moves reflect sheer desperation
Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando
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| G. Newman Lowrance/Getty Images | |
| Koren Robinson caught 21 passes with the Packers in 2007. |
Re-signing Koren Robinson and acquiring Keary Colbert from the Broncos give Seattle a couple of known quantities at the receiver position. That beats the alternative for a team that has lost six receivers to injury, including versatile backup quarterback Seneca Wallace.
The chances of the Seahawks bringing back Robinson seemed remote as recently as one week ago. But after Seattle lost two more receivers to injury, including Wallace, the team apparently felt it had little choice. We will surely hear much about how Robinson has made strides in breaking from his destructive and occasionally criminal past.
I stood with Robinson on the Seahawks' practice field on May 31, 2005, as he explained how he had turned around his life:
"I'm not stupid, man. I'm not going to be one of those people they talk about, 'Oh, he had the potential to be a great player but he let this, that and the third, so many distractions' -- that's not going to be me."
Six days later, Robinson blew a pair of .191s in blood-alcohol testing after a traffic stop in the Seattle area. The Seahawks cut him and Robinson's career has never recovered.
Re-signing Robinson at this point marks a stunning reversal for a franchise that has talked tough about drawing a hard line against players who qualify as habitual off-field offenders.
Colbert, meanwhile, had signed with the Broncos on the second day of free agency, presumably to be their No. 2 receiver. He never met expectations and no longer fit into the Broncos' plans.
Look for Robinson and Colbert to play relatively prominent roles in the short term while Seattle waits for Deion Branch and Bobby Engram to return from injuries.
Update: Seattle has also signed receiver Trent Shelton to its practice squad. He went to camp with the Seahawks.
Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando
Matt from Seattle writes: Sando, after hitting up the Rams camp who looks to step into the big hole Isaac Bruce leaves behind? Also I heard Logan Payne broke a rib during the scrimmage do you know his time table? thanks
Mike Sando: Drew Bennett probably fills the spot on the Rams' depth chart, but I don't see anyone immediately filling the void Bruce leaves. Al Saunders did address the receivers a bit in an interview I posted this morning.
As for broken ribs, they hurt for a long time and that's just the way it goes (easy for me to say). None of the young receivers in Seattle's camp can afford to miss an extended period. Now is the time to hit stride. That's what Ben Obomanu is doing.
Mark from Rochester, N.Y., writes: You have given us lots of first- and third-person accounts of how amazing Josh Morgan has been in the 49ers' training camp. You also go on the record as repeatedly telling your readers not to read too much into it. Is Morgan making these plays as a result of his great physical ability, or is he performing well because he has grasped the Mike Martz offense and is making all the right mental decisions? I think there is a huge difference between the two. The former is not unlike a scouting combine star, where the latter is good reason to get 49ers fans excited that could boom or bust either way about a possible draft-day steal like Marques Colston. Players' mental abilities are what separate NFL-quality backups from NFL-quality starters.
Mike Sando: That is a good question. The descriptions I've heard have dealt mostly with big plays, and that would suggest the physical part. According to Mike Martz, Morgan still makes some mistakes, but he is making progress.
You are right about not reading too much into what rookie receivers do early in camp. In this case, the 49ers haven't been shy about praising him, and I want to pass that along. It's a little unusual because teams know rookies often fail to sustain fast starts. The 49ers sense otherwise with Morgan. They think they've found an impact player.
Colin from Seattle writes: Mike- I know LeCharles Bentley was released b/c he wanted a place to start but what do you think about him going to the seahawks with there recent injuries/retirement at center?
Mike Sando: Just a thought, but the Seahawks seem to have enough injured offensive linemen already. Putting Bentley and Floyd Womack on the same team might not be a good idea. Seriously, I haven't heard anything about Bentley and Seattle to this point. I think the Seahawks -- and a lot of teams -- would have interest in a healthy Bentley. But is he healthy?
Jim from Ellensburg, Wash., writes: Thanks for all the coverage, Mike. Us out in the unknown West really appreciate all of the well-covered updates that we go without during the year. I'm curious about the Seahawks this year. Every other post I read about them seems to be about the defense getting the jump on the offense in some way. I'm wondering, should I be this concerned about the offense, or that much more excited about the defense?
Mike Sando: You should be cautiously optimistic about an offense that could become more versatile given personnel changes at running back and tight end. You should be concerned about depth on the offensive line now that Chris Gray isn't there as a security blanket. You should be excited about the defense but also hopeful that Patrick Kerney can squeeze another mostly injury-free season from his 31-year-old body.
Michael from Mammoth Lakes, Calif., writes: First off I would like to say how great a job you are doing with your coverage of the NFC west. I'm stuck on the couch after surgery and I look forward to it daily. My question is in regard to the knee injury suffered by "big play babs." He plays an important role in the seahawks secondary and we would hate to have anything serious happen to him. what's the word?
Mike Sando: Thank you, sir. We are still awaiting word on MRI results for both players. Coach Mike Holmgren did not sound particularly concerned about those injuries. I was not out at practice today, but I'll check.
Jonathan from Seattle writes: Hey Mike, do you think Seattle will sign John Lynch? I think he would be a great addition to improve a shaky secondary.
Mike Sando: Lynch has a history with Seahawks president Tim Ruskell, but remember, Lynch is leaving Denver because he wants a shot at more playing time. Seattle appears pretty set at the position, despite your concerns.
I would also wonder about Lynch's neck situation. Here is what I wrote in 2004 about the Seahawks' interest in Lynch at that time: "The Seahawks considered former Tampa Bay starter John Lynch for the job, but concerns about a lingering neck injury complicated negotiations. Lynch subsequently signed with the Denver Broncos."
Lynch might have overplayed his hand here. He left the Broncos because he wanted more playing time. That's OK, but is there another team willing to let him play as much as the Broncos had planned? I'm not so sure.
Williambryan from Vancouver, Wash., writes: I noticed you have Eric Wicks listed as a linebacker on your roster analysis. Wasn't he signed as an undrafted safety out of WV? Has he been playing as a linebacker?
Mike Sando: I had him listed as a safety when they signed him, but the Seahawks are listing him as a linebacker on the roster I picked up from them Monday. That's what I used in putting together this roster analysis. It's an upset if he earns a roster spot.
DCHaines from Oshkosh, Wis., writes: Brett Favre will always be a Packer in my heart. This has become a power struggle with Ted Thompson flexing his might. If they trade Farve,I will no longer be a Packer fan. Let's do what is best for the team by keeping Favre! When Rogers starts losing games blame Thompson! Let the best man play. Rogers will be the future but not yet. There best chance this season is with Bret unless they just don't care. I hate to say it but if Brett goes to Minnesota I will be rooting for Favre and the Vikings!!!!!!
Mike Sando: The NFC North has apparently traded the Packers to the NFC West for unspecified mailbag considerations.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Mike Sando
Sando joined ESPN.com in 2007 after nine seasons covering the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma (Wash.) News Tribune. He lives in the Seattle-Tacoma area with his wife and two sons.
