NFC West: draft
2005 re-draft gives 49ers you know who
1. San Francisco 49ers
Actual pick: Alex Smith, QB, Utah
Kiper re-draft pick: Aaron Rodgers
My thoughts: The question, of course, is to what extent Rodgers would have transcended the bad luck and dysfunction that framed Smith's career with the 49ers. Rodgers benefited from having a few years to learn the pro game before taking over for Brett Favre. Rodgers walked into a far more talented offense than the one that helped drag down Smith early in his career. The disparity between Smith and Rodgers has to do with more than circumstances, however. Rodgers has been better across the board. I think his personality would have helped him fare better than Smith has fared. Matt Cassel, the second quarterback selected in Kiper's re-draft, lacks the physical skills Rodgers possesses. I think he might have become another Smith if the 49ers had selected him. The 49ers would have been just fine selecting DeMarcus Ware, the second player chosen in Kiper's re-draft.
8. Arizona Cardinals
Actual pick: Antrel Rolle, CB, Miami
Kiper re-draft pick: Jay Ratliff, NT, Auburn.
My thoughts: Rolle converted to safety and earned Pro Bowl recognition before leaving Arizona in free agency. He wasn't good enough over the course of his time with the Cardinals to justify the early choice, however. Ratliff would have upgraded the Cardinals' defense. Arizona wouldn't have leaned so heavily on veteran nose tackle Bryan Robinson, who has played too many snaps. I might have sent Frank Gore to the Cardinals on a re-draft, however (Gore went 17th in Kiper's version). Taking away Gore from the 49ers and sending him to Arizona would have headed off the Edgerrin James signing while weakening a division rival. Having Gore and Kurt Warner in the same backfield would have upgraded an offense that already had outstanding weapons in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.
19. St. Louis Rams
Actual pick: Alex Barron, T, Florida St.
Kiper re-draft pick: Logan Mankins, G, Fresno St.
My thoughts: Mankins would have provided needed toughness and leadership. Barron's tenure became a yellow blur thanks to all the penalties he incurred. Darren Sproles was available in Kiper's re-draft and he would have given the Rams an scary one-two punch at running back, but building along the offensive line would have made more sense. Mankins became a Pro Bowl guard. The Rams wound up selecting guards Richie Incognito and Claude Terrell in this draft. Incognito lacked self-control and flamed out of St. Louis. Off-field issues drove Terrell out of the league. Selecting Mankins early would have averted the mistake on Barron while sending the team in another direction in the later rounds.
26. Seattle Seahawks
Actual pick: Chris Spencer, C, Mississippi
Kiper re-draft pick: Barrett Ruud, LB, Nebraska
My thoughts: The Seahawks got more immediate help at linebacker by selecting Lofa Tatupu in the second round and Leroy Hill in the third. Seattle would not have reached the Super Bowl following the 2005 season without Tatupu bringing together the defense, in my view. Ruud did not start as a rookie. Tatupu went 15th overall to Kansas City in Kiper's re-draft. Some of the other players I would have sent to Seattle in the 26th spot were also gone in the re-draft. Given how Super Bowl XL turned out, the Seahawks could have used another safety. The team liked safety-turned-linebacker Thomas Davis that year. Nick Collins and Oshiomogho Atogwe were gone on a re-draft.
» Draft class lists: Arizona | St. Louis | San Francisco | Seattle
Examining the draft classes of each division team.
St. Louis Rams

Unexpected impact: Sixth-round choice Keith Null has become one of six rookie quarterbacks to attempt passes this season. His 81.2 rating against the Texans in Week 15 was the second highest by a Rams starter this season (minimum five attempts).
Questionable call: Despite their status as a rebuilding team, the Rams went out of their way to protect Smith. They arguably stunted his growth as the left tackle of the future by having him start out on the right side.
Seattle Seahawks

Setting up the next GM: The Seahawks acquired the Broncos' first-round choice in 2010, a move that earned praise for general manager Tim Ruskell. Ruskell's resignation while the season was spiraling arms his replacement with ample ammunition.
On the line: While Ruskell's failure to rebuild the offensive line played a key role in his demise, second-round choice Max Unger became an instant starter at right guard, moving to center last week. Unger looks like he'll be a long-term starter on the line.
San Francisco 49ers

Wait until next year: The 49ers traded their second- and fourth-round choices to Carolina for the Panthers' first-round choice in 2010. The move looks better now that the Panthers have fallen from the 12-4 standard they set last season. For the short term, though, the 49ers didn't get much immediate impact beyond Crabtree.
Need unfilled: The 49ers hoped sixth-round choice Bear Pascoe would contribute quickly as a blocking tight end in coordinator Jimmy Raye's offense. Pascoe didn't even earn a spot on the 53-man roster. The 49ers have carried only two tight ends on their roster.
Arizona Cardinals

No small value: Seventh-round pick LaRod Stephens-Howling checks in at 5-foot-7 and 180 pounds, making him too small by NFL standards. No matter. Stephens-Howling's 99-yard kickoff return against Tennessee helped the Cardinals stay in the game. Arizona has worked Stephens-Howling into its offense as well, targeting him as a receiver out of the backfield. The rookie scored a touchdown against Carolina before losing a key fumble at San Francisco.
Medical alert: While Wells has so far proven durable, the Cardinals lost second-round choice Cody Brown to a season-ending wrist injury, affecting depth at outside linebacker. Sixth-rounder Will Davis, another outside linebacker, has also missed time to injury.
Danny: Mike, let me apologize for all the upset 9er fans! After years of waiting there is actually an actual glimmer of hope. Being actually realistic and the niners not making the playoffs but finishing 8-8 at best, what are out chances next year with a good draft?
Mike Sando: The 49ers have good young talent in key spots. I think a lot of it comes down to what we see from Alex Smith over the final five games. So far, not so bad. It's important for this organization to have the answer at that position. Smith looks like he could provide the right answer. The outlook brightens considerably if he makes that happen. Some optimism is indeed warranted right now.
Luke (Bellingham, WA): All this time and not one question about the future of the Hawks front office?! What's your take on Holmgren, is it his job if he wants it? Do they reach out to an up and coming talent?
Mike Sando: The Seahawks will do their diligence in the search process. They hired a firm to assist. They will follow NFL protocol, which requires interviewing at least one minority candidate. They know Mike Holmgren is there and they know he would love to have the job, so they can afford to let the process play out. Holmgren isn't going anywhere without giving Seattle a chance, in my view. I think the team will consider Holmgren, but I do not think the team is leaning that way at this time.
Armen Dacity (Winter Park, Florida): RAMS QUESTION!!!! Given the Rams' offensive system, which potential Round 2-3 QB do you think would be the best fit: Colt McCoy, Tony Pike, Tim Tebow or Dan LaFevre?
Mike Sando: Rams? Hmmm. The name sounds familiar. Steve Muench of Scouts Inc. answered that very question. I'll defer to him since he actually watches college games and studies the players. He went with Jake Locker, Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy and Jimmy Clausen. His direct quote: "All of our top three and McCoy could fit. I would go in order of Locker, Bradford, McCoy and then Clausen. Clausen could do it, but McCoy has better mobility. In that system, you need a little bit more of a mobile quarterback."
TJ (California): Mike, do you think Kurt Warner will start this week? Or do you think he might rest so he will be ready for the all-important 49ers game? I'm sure the Cardinals don't want Kurt re-injured. What are your thoughts?
Mike Sando: The Cardinals probably would not make the decision based on saving Kurt Warner for the 49ers. Seems to me like players play if they are cleared to play. Warner overruled that last week, but I don't think he was saving himself for any future opponents. He just did not feel right.
Apologies to Armen from Winter Park. Upon re-reading the question, I see it asked about quarterbacks in the second or third round. I do not have a great answer for you. Hopefully the answer I provided helps some.
Charles Baus/Icon SMIJake Locker could be an attractive option for several NFC West teams.The 49ers, Seahawks and Rams currently hold five first-round selections. All three could be in the market for quarterbacks of the future.
Mike Sando: Are there any quarterbacks worth taking at the top of the draft?
Steve Muench: Personally, coming into the season, Sam Bradford looked like that guy, no question. Now there are other concerns with the injury and also that he did not look as dominant even before the injury because he didn’t have the strong supporting cast -- which, fair or unfair, is going to hurt him. They looked at times like they were playing intramural teams in 2008. I am still very high on Bradford because he made throws under pressure in the national championship game and against Texas that made me feel this is a kid who can get it done.
The issues -- how good was the supporting cast -- are overrated for me. I have seen him make throws where he is popped in the mouth and he has all the tools to do it. Teams need to check out the shoulder. In terms of skill set, he doesn’t have a rocket of an arm. He can make all the throws. The thing I like is how smart he is. They did spread the field a lot. That helped him a lot to create matchups, but when he drops back and he makes reads, he rarely makes mistakes.
Mike Sando: And yet Jake Locker is the name we're hearing most at the top of the QB draft class. I know Scouts Inc. has Locker first, Bradford second and Jimmy Clausen third among college QB prospects. Then we have Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow.
49ers draft watch: Pick from Carolina
Seahawks draft watch: Pick from Denver
Turning an eye toward the 2010 NFL draft
NFC West teams have played enough games to provide a feel for which positions they need to address during the offseason, including in the draft.
I'll be speaking with college scout Steve Muench of Scouts Inc. this week for the first of several periodic updates attempting to match NFC West team needs with available talent. Teams are not always able to target needs in the draft -- the 49ers wound up drafting receiver Michael Crabtree instead of an offensive tackle -- but it's always best when value aligns with need.
Let me know which positions and players you would like to address. I have some ideas of my own, but quite a few of you follow the college players more closely than I do at this point in the season. These conversations with Muench are designed to better prepare me -- and hopefully you -- for the conversations that will gain momentum in the spring.
Putting Rams' horrific 2006 draft in perspective
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Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando
If the Rams no longer acknowledged their 2006 draft class, would that mean it never existed? As the team seeks ways to conserve resources, will it omit from future media guides all references to the ill-fated class?
In looking for ways to assess the carnage, I compared draft-choice retention percentages for NFC West teams to NFL averages. All draft choices are not valued equally, however, so I chose to look beyond simply how many players remained on their original teams from various draft classes.
Instead, I used the draft-value trading chart to assign values for each choice exercised from the 2004 through 2007 drafts. I then totaled values associated with players who remained on their original teams. By dividing this total by values for all choices each team exercised, I arrived at a retention percentage for those four drafts.
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The results show up in the second chart. The Rams, after parting with early 2006 choices Tye Hill and Joe Klopfenstein to comply with the 75-man roster limit, retained only 3.2 percent of their original draft investment for 2006.
That was easily the lowest figure in the league for the 2006 draft (Denver was next at 21.2 percent). Hill was the 15th overall choice, worth 1,055 points on the value chart. Klopfenstein was the 46th choice, valued at 440 points.
Overall, the Rams used 2006 picks worth 2,181.3 points on the draft-value chart. They have 69.2 points remaining on their original investment -- the combined draft-day value of No. 113 overall choice Victor Adeyanju (68 points) and No. 242 overall choice Mark Setterstrom (1.2 points).
The league-wide totals will shift as teams trim rosters, but there's no getting around the futility of that draft for the Rams. It's also worth noting that the players were only partly at fault. Failures at the organizational level complicated some of those players' efforts to succeed.
Updating draft choice signings in division, NFL
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Agent Nate Haber used Twitter to announce a contract agreement between the Rams and third-round choice Bradley Fletcher, noting that Fletcher can earn about $1.2 million in the first year.
The Rams have not announced anything. NFC West teams have signed or agreed to terms with 15 of 29 choices if we count the Fletcher agreement.
NFC North teams have signed or agreed to terms with 18 players, most in the league. The NFC East and AFC North are next with 17, followed by the NFC West (15), AFC South (13), NFC South (12), AFC East (10) and AFC West (5).
The chart shows signings by round throughout the league. I'll break out NFC West signing statuses below:
Seahawks sign another seventh-round choice
Seventh-round choice Cameron Morah's signing in Seattle, announced by the Seahwaks, leaves the team with three unsigned picks.
A quick look at which NFC West draft choices have signed so far:
Signed (4): fifth-rounder Herman Johnson, sixth-rounder Davis, seventh-rounder LaRod Stephens-Howling, seventh-rounder Trevor Canfield.
Unsigned (4): first-rounder Chris Wells, second-rounder Cody Brown, third-rounder Rashad Johnson, fourth-rounder Gregory Toler.
Signed (4): fifth-rounder Scott McKillop, sixth-rounder Bear Pascoe, seventh-rounder Curtis Taylor, seventh-rounder Ricky Jean-Francois.
Unsigned (3): first-rounder Michael Crabtree, third-rounder Glen Coffee, fifth-rounder Nate Davis.
Signed (4): sixth-rounder Mike Teel, seventh-rounder Courtney Greene, seventh-rounder Nick Reed, seventh-rounder Cameron Morrah.
Unsigned (3): first-rounder Aaron Curry, second-rounder Max Unger, third-rounder Deon Butler.
Signed (0): none.
Unsigned (7): first-rounder Jason Smith, second-rounder James Laurinaitis, third-rounder Bradley Fletcher, fourth-rounder Darell Scott, fifth-rounder Brooks Foster, sixth-rounder Keith Null, seventh-rounder Chris Ogbonnaya.
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Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando
Sixth-round choice Will Davis' signing in Arizona, announced by the Cardinals, leaves the NFC West with 18 unsigned picks, fewest in the league.
There's little urgency to sign picks this early, but some teams are ahead of others. The Rams have appeared content to wait.
Signed (4): fifth-rounder Herman Johnson, sixth-rounder Davis, seventh-rounder LaRod Stephens-Howling, seventh-rounder Trevor Canfield.
Unsigned (4): first-rounder Chris Wells, second-rounder Cody Brown, third-rounder Rashad Johnson, fourth-rounder Gregory Toler.
Signed (4): fifth-rounder Scott McKillop, sixth-rounder Bear Pascoe, seventh-rounder Curtis Taylor, seventh-rounder Ricky Jean-Francois.
Unsigned (3): first-rounder Michael Crabtree, third-rounder Glen Coffee, fifth-rounder Nate Davis.
Signed (3): sixth-rounder Mike Teel, seventh-rounder Courtney Greene, seventh-rounder Nick Reed.
Unsigned (4): first-rounder Aaron Curry, second-rounder Max Unger, third-rounder Deon Butler, seventh-rounder Cameron Morrah.
Signed (0): none.
Unsigned (7): first-rounder Jason Smith, second-rounder James Laurinaitis, third-rounder Bradley Fletcher, fourth-rounder Darell Scott, fifth-rounder Brooks Foster, sixth-rounder Keith Null, seventh-rounder Chris Ogbonnaya.
Early look at the 2010 compensatory draft picks
The first stage in the process of determining compensatory choices for the 2010 draft passed quietly with the June 1 deadline for NFL teams to make qualifying offers to unrestricted free agents. No team extended an offer to a UFA candidate. That means no additional UFA signings this offseason will influence compensatory choices.
The compensatory formula is complex. AdamJT13 has come close to solving it. Basically, the NFL awards additional draft choices to teams that lost free agents more valuable than the free agents teams signed. Values are determined by salaries and on-field contributions.
I had pulled a list of free agents NFC West teams added and lost when I noticed AdamJT13 had already done it on his blog. He notes that it's not yet known whether NFL teams extended qualifying offers to any UFAs. I can provide a small assist here by confirming that no teams extended qualifying offers to any UFAs.
A team-by-team look at the early compensatory picture in the NFC West:
Arizona: The Cardinals added two UFAs from other teams and lost four. They paid $5 million per year to cornerback Bryant McFadden. They lost defensive end Antonio Smith to a deal worth $7.1 million per season. How much those players play and at what level they perform could prove influential. And if former Cardinals cornerback Eric Green enjoys a bounce-back season with the Dolphins, that could improve Arizona's compensatory ledger.
St. Louis: The Rams do not appear to be in strong position in the compensatory race. Center Jason Brown, added from the Ravens at $7.5 million per season, should more than cancel out the Rams' three UFA losses (offensive linemen Brett Romberg, Nick Leckey and Brandon Gorin). The Rams also added Kyle Boller, James Butler and Billy Bajema.
San Francisco: The 49ers also do not appear to be in strong position in the compensatory race. Additions Brandon Jones, Marvel Smith, Demetric Evans and Moran Norris could play quite a bit. The players San Francisco lost -- Bryant Johnson, Ronald Fields, J.T. O'Sullivan, Donald Strickland, Bajema and Sean Ryan -- appear unlikely to cancel out the additions.
Seattle: I would like to hear AdamJT13's analysis on the Seahawks' compensatory situation. The team spent $8 million per season for receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh and nearly $4.4 million per season for defensive tackle Colin Cole. The team lost defensive tackle Rocky Bernard ($4 million), running back Maurice Morris ($2.1 million), fullback Leonard Weaver (nearly $1.8 million), receiver Bobby Engram ($1.25 million) and offensive lineman Floyd Womack ($1 million) among its seven departures.
AdamJT13 was good about helping out when I asked for his input earlier this year. Here's hoping we hear from him again.
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Paul from the United Kingdom asks whether the 49ers might have come out better than expected in their 2007 draft-day trade with the Patriots. San Francisco sent its 2007 fourth-round choice [110th overall] and its 2008 first-round choice [seventh overall] to New England for the 28th overall choice in the 2007 draft, which the 49ers used for tackle Joe Staley.
Paul also notes that the 49ers acquired the Colts' 2008 first-round choice [29th overall, used for Kentwan Balmer] and a 2007 fourth-rounder [used for Dashon Goldson] from Indianapolis. Those moves gave the 49ers picks in the rounds of the choices they traded to New England.
"Using your value chart," Paul writes, "the trades cost the 49ers an equivalent of 708 points because the 1st rounder they gave up turned out to be so high. Adding that deficit to the value of the 28th pick used to select Staley, that would equate to a selection at 9 or 10. That would still seem like good value to me for an OT that has been a starter virtually since his selection and looks like he can be very productive for a number of years at either left or right tackle."
Mike Sando: I understand your math -- the 49ers sent the seventh choice (1,500 points) plus the 110th choice (74 points) to the Patriots for the 28th choice (660), and the difference would be 708 points -- but the trade chart doesn't come into play at face value in this situation. That is because current-year choices carry more value than future-year choices. In other words, a first-round pick this year is worth more than a first-rounder next year.
Staley started 16 games at offensive tackle for the 49ers before the Patriots were able to exercise the first-round choice they received in return. Those 16 starts represented immediate return on the 49ers' investment. That value offsets some of the 708-point imbalance.
The 49ers come out OK as long as Staley enjoys the long, productive career he seems likely to enjoy. But the Patriots came out even better. They used the 49ers' choices to help land linebacker Jerod Mayo and receiver Randy Moss. Not bad.
Mailbag: Cardinals' draft classes stepped up
Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando
Rick from Charleston, West Virginia, writes: Hey Mike! As I'm seeing all these 2009 NFL Draft grades immediately hitting the presses, I'm reminded of what I heard a long time ago -- not sure who gets the credit -- you cannot judge a draft for 5 years. With that in mind, I went back and looked at each NFC West team's first 5 picks in the 2004 Draft.
Maybe you could post this and get some reader feedback. The numbers in parenthesis are the round, followed by overall pick:
Seattle
Marcus Tubbs, DT, Texas (1,23)
Michael Boulware, SS, Florida St (2,53)
Sean Locklear, G, NC State (3,84)
Niko Koutouvides, LB, Purdue (4,116)
D.J. Hackett, WR, Colorado (5,157)
San Francisco
Rashaun Woods, WR, Oklahoma St (1,31)
Justin Smiley, G, Alabama (2,46)
Shawntae Spencer, CB, Pitt (2,58)
Derrick Hamilton, WR, Clemson (3,77)
Isaac Sopoaga, DT, Hawaii (4,104)
St. Louis
Steven Jackson, RB, Oregon St (1,24)
Anthony Hargrove, DE, Ga Tech (3,91)
Brandon Chillar, LB, UCLA (4,130)
Jason Shivers, S, Arizona St (5,158)
Jeff Smoker, QB, Michigan St (6,201)
Arizona
Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Pitt (1,3)
Karlos Dansby, LB, Auburn (2,33)
Darnell Dockett, DT, Florida St (3,64)
Alex Stepanovich, C, Ohio St (4,100)
Antonio Smith, DE, Oklahoma St (5,135)
My two initial impressions were that:
- The Cardinals had a GREAT draft. You could argue they hit a home run on 4 of their first five picks, and a grand slam on their #1 (Fitz.) Of course, they were picking high, and you would expect the #3 overall pick to be an impact player 5 years in. By all accounts, though, this would probably measure up quite well against ANY NFL team's draft over the last five years.
- The Rams seem to have done themselves a disservice by trading their 2nd, 4th, and 6th round picks (Chillar and Smoker were both compensatory selections.) They made a great first-round pick (Jackson) but by trading away a couple of picks, their 5th selection (201 overall) was a whopping 66 picks lower than the Cardinals (135).
Mike Sando: Good work, Rick. I was playing around with some related information over the weekend. I went through the Pro Football Reference database and collected 2008 starting information for every player in the league. I then singled out draft choices still playing for their original teams, adding up how many starts they made for their teams in 2008. The totals would not reflect players released since last season, but I thought that was a minor issue and something I could work around with a little more time.
The findings backed up what you are saying. Members of the Cardinals' 2004 draft class still with the team combined for 68 regular-season starts last season. The rest of the league averaged 16 combined starts for members of their 2004 draft classes still with their original teams. San Diego ranked second with 45. The Rams had zero.
Members of the Cardinals' 2003 draft class still with the team combined for 69 regular-season starts last season, another league high. The rest of the league averaged 15 combined starts.
In fact, the Cardinals' 2003 through 2008 draft classes averaged a league-high 42 regular-season starts for their original teams last season (again, not counting any players released since last season). The rest of the league averaged a combined 25 starts last season.
This is something I'll break out in greater detail once I have time to do some more tinkering.
Jones, Barber lead class of '97 homestand
Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando
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The Tony Gonzalez trade from Kansas City to Atlanta leaves Walter Jones and Ronde Barber as the only 1997 NFL draftees still with their original teams.
Seahawks general manager Tim Ruskell was the Bucs' college scouting director when Tampa Bay drafted Barber. This week, Ruskell listed Barber among the choices with which he was proud to be associated. Among the others: Brandon Mebane, Leroy Hill and John Lynch.
"They didn't care about where they went in the draft, and they became good football players," Ruskell said. "You got to give credit to the player. It makes you feel good, too, that you did something a little extra."
The Bucs also drafted Al Harris in 1997. Harris and Barber are among 17 players from the 1997 class still active. The Seahawks, Rams and Bucs each drafted two of those players. Note that eight of the 17 were first-round choices.
