ESPN NFL

There's little sense in taking the bait when San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh tells a radio program Michael Crabtree "has the best hands I've ever seen on a wide receiver."

Anyone with a strong grasp of NFL history would place Cris Carter, Raymond Berry and Steve Largent on a short list for receivers with the surest hands.

Hall of Famer Ken Houston, speaking for a 2008 piece on all-time great wideouts, stood up for AFL stars Otis Taylor and Lionel Taylor.

"Lionel Taylor, I mean, he would catch a BB," Houston said.

Green Bay Packers general manager Ted Thompson, speaking for the same piece, said Randy Moss, then with New England, had the best hands in the NFL at that time (2008).

"A lot of guys can catch," Thompson said then. "He can catch on any platform, as we say in scouting. He can adjust and catch it over the top of somebody's head, catch it falling down, and it doesn't matter if he is covered."

With Moss now on the 49ers, it is possible Crabtree does not possess the best hands among wide receivers on his own team.

Oops. I wasn't going to take the bait on this one, but now it's too late. Time to regroup.

Bottom line, I suspect Crabtree has impressed Harbaugh this offseason, and Harbaugh would like that to continue for as long as possible. By offering such strong public praise for Crabtree, Harbaugh is setting a standard for Crabtree to meet this season. He realizes Crabtree has the ability to meet that standard, or else he wouldn't make the statement.

We should all recall Harbaugh's calling quarterback Alex Smith "elite" and promoting him for the Pro Bowl last season. Then as now, Harbaugh was standing up for his guy. Smith enjoyed the finest season of his career and even outplayed the truly elite Drew Brees at times during the 49ers' playoff victory over New Orleans. The way Harbaugh backed Smith played a role in that performance, in my view.

Back to Crabtree. He has the ability to rank among the most sure-handed receivers in the game. He has not yet earned that status, but now he has little choice, right?

As the chart shows, Crabtree finished the 2011 season with 12.2 receptions per drop, which ranked 28th in the NFL among players targeted at least 100 times. Larry Fitzgerald led the NFL with 80 receptions and only one drop. Those numbers are according to ESPN Stats & Information, which defines drops as "incomplete passes where the receiver should have caught the pass with ordinary effort."

Crabtree suffered six drops last season by that standard, a few too many for the player with the best hands his head coach has ever seen on a wide receiver.

Alex Smith's commitment to improving his throwing mechanics promises to turn analysts into amateur position coaches during the upcoming NFL season.

Every touchdown pass or interception will invite questions about whether Smith's shoulders were square or whether his front knee was bent sufficiently at delivery.

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com explains the changes Smith has made to his mechanics by incorporating more of his body into the throw. Maiocco: "The most noticeable difference is that Smith also has greater flex in his left knee. ESPN analyst Ron Jaworski, speaking in December, repeated what he has said since 2007: Smith's knee lock was a major issue."

Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle says Smith's work with pitching coach Tom House also addressed the psychological aspect of the game. Branch: "Saints quarterback Drew Brees, who recommended the pitching coach to Smith, credits his meeting with House after the 2003 season for transforming his previous nice-guy style of leadership."

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee says Dashon Goldson played well last season with minimal offseason preparation, something to keep in mind as Goldson remains unsigned this year. Barrows: "Furthermore, Goldson's absence gives the younger players more exposure. As of now, C.J. Spillman is filling in at free safety when the first-team defense takes the field. The 49ers signed Spillman to a three-year extension this offseason. Spillman may be the most physically gifted of all of the team's safeties -- he's certainly one of the more aggressive -- but he lacks experience. Newcomers Mark LeGree and Trenton Robinson, a sixth-round draft pick, also get a bit more action with Goldson's absence."

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com says the team's emphasis on speed in the draft should help the special teams, which were already pretty good. Farnsworth: "Red Bryant set franchise records by blocking two field goals in a game and four kicks during the season. Jon Ryan led the NFL and tied a club record with 34 punts downed inside the opponents’ 20-yard line, broke his club single-season records for average (46.6 yards) and net average (39.3) and also got off the longest punt (77 yards) in franchise history. Steven Hauschka tied club records by kicking five field goals in the upset victory over the Ravens and converting at least one three-pointer in 12 consecutive games. Doug Baldwin blocked a punt that Michael Robinson returned for a touchdown, while Farwell also had a blocked punt to set up a TD."

Also from Farnsworth: Why Jeremy Lane appealed to Seattle in the draft.

Eric D. Williams of the Tacoma News Tribune says Seahawks owner Paul Allen has denied rumors his sports empire could be for sale.

Brady Henderson of 710ESPN Seattle says no one is quite sure why Marshawn Lynch calls teammate Matt Flynn by the name "Antonio" -- that's just Lynch.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic says Landon Cohen's addition to the Cardinals' roster gives the team 90 players. Somers: "The Cardinals had one spot open on the roster and obviously needed some depth at defensive end. Signing Cohen doesn't preclude them from reaching agreement with defensive end Vonnie Holliday or outside linebacker Clark Haggans. Whenever that happens, the club will make a corresponding roster move."

Tony Softli of 101ESPN St. Louis offers thoughts on the Rams' proposed stadium upgrades. Softli: "While there may seem to be a short-term downside, there is also a huge potential for economic growth that all Missourians can be very proud of once a top-flight facility is built. The bottom line is that this current stadium needs a major facelift, or else another one needs to be built, because this community can’t afford to lose another NFL team and millions of dollars in future revenue."

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch checks in with new Rams linebacker Mario Haggan, the oldest player on the team at 32. Haggan: "Fresh start for me. Fresh opportunity. This is a young team with an established quarterback. I've heard so many good things about Coach [Jeff] Fisher; you talk to guys across the league and they all wish they could play for him. And it's close to home. Maybe my family can come see me play more in St. Louis."

Also from Thomas: a report from Fisher's first full-squad practice as Rams coach. Fisher: "We added a bunch of things today. We've got a lot of 'base' in, we've got third down, and red zone. Friday, we'll probably do some 2-minute. So we're throwing a lot at 'em. But they've responded very well and they're practicing well together."

A quick spin around NFC West rookie camps in search of notes to file away:

• Arizona Cardinals: Tight end Steve Skelton, brother of quarterback John Skelton, might have a shot at earning a roster spot this season. Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic made that observation. Todd Heap, Jeff King, Rob Housler and Jim Dray would outrank Skelton on the depth chart at tight end. Those four stuck on the initial 53-man roster last season. Arizona had opened with three tight ends on its roster in every other season since Ken Whisenhunt became head coach in 2007.
• San Francisco 49ers: Quarterback Alex Smith took the time this offseason to work on his mechanics. Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle has the details. Some offseason stories can be overblown (players adjusting their workout routines, etc.). This one intrigues because the coach Smith consulted has worked with Tom Brady, Drew Brees and other top quarterbacks. An assistant coach once told me Brady had better mechanics entering the NFL than any quarterback he had evaluated. Mechanics matter a great deal for quarterbacks. Brady remains close to perfect in that area. The question for Smith or any quarterback is whether he'll revert to bad habits under pressure.
• St. Louis Rams: The team has high expectations for rookie receivers Brian Quick and Chris Givens. Quick, a second-round choice from Appalachian State, was supposed to be raw. Nick Wagoner of stlouisrams.com called Quick "smooth and more polished that expected" during the first practice of camp. Coach Jeff Fisher singled out Quick's "good hips" relative to his size (Quick is 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds). The plan has to be for Quick in particular to develop quickly enough to help right away. Initial reports suggest the Rams are optimistic on that front.
• Seattle Seahawks: I forgot to mention second-round pick Bobby Wagner in my report from Seahawks camp Friday. His body type was notable. Wagner is shorter than the prototypical linebacker. He also appears thicker through his lower body. The Seahawks pointed to his 4.4-second speed when they selected him. Position coach Ken Norton Jr. was noncommittal when asked whether Wagner, a middle linebacker, could project to the outside (K.J. Wright would play the middle in that scenario). The staff would prefer to keep Wright, a 2011 fourth-round choice, on the strong side. That is where fifth-round rookie Korey Toomer projects as well. Toomer's athleticism jumped out right away, including when he picked off a tipped pass.

These are day-one impressions, so they come with all the usual disclaimers. It'll be interesting to revisit them during the season.

How to value Alex Smith's performance stood among the most debated subjects on the NFC West blog last season.

Smith ranked ninth in NFL passer rating among a broader group featuring Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers.

The 49ers' coach, Jim Harbaugh, called Smith "elite" and promoted him for the Pro Bowl. But when it came time for the 49ers to pay Smith this offseason, they gave him a three-year deal with an easy out for the team after one season. The contract bore little resemblance to the ones those other quarterbacks have commanded.

Total QBR, the metric ESPN's Analytics Team developed to more fully assess how quarterbacks contributed to winning, supported the 49ers' valuation.

Smith, despite quite a few high single-game QBR scores when playing at home, ranked 22nd among qualifying quarterbacks overall with a 46.4 score out of 100 (50 is average). His share of blame for the sacks he took hurt his team more than the sacks any other qualifying player took, a huge drain on his score.

The weekly in-season "QBR Ranks" posts on this blog provided the basis for discussions on NFC West quarterback play. We had some healthy debates over the usefulness of QBR and how it could be improved. Some of those discussions go on internally, too.

Jeff Bennett, Dean Oliver and the Analytics Team are making a couple tweaks to the formula.

The changes will lessen the blame quarterbacks receive when they fumble during a sack, shifting more of the blame to offensive lines. Also, kneeldowns and spikes will no longer factor; those plays had very little impact on QBR over the season, but they wielded more influence on single-game scores.

Smith fumbled seven times and lost two of them. His fumbles were not particularly costly overall, allowing Smith to rank ninth in fewest expected points lost to fumbles. Brees was first. Tim Tebow was last.

These QBR tweaks were relatively minor. The Analytics Team discussed other possibilities at the most recent Sloan Sports Conference.

"One of the things that does sit a little bit on my mind is that we fundamentally have to do it on a per-play basis because we're going to be looking at how well did they play on third down vs. second down vs. five or more rushers and these are great," Oliver said recently at the conference. "One of the things I wonder about is whether that is the right basis for evaluating a quarterback overall."

The current system assigns greater value to scoring drives requiring fewer plays, all else equal, on the theory that scoring quickly would be more impressive than if finding the end zone took longer.

"We talked about some sort of QBR per drive, because if you go 80 yards in three plays vs. 80 yards in 12 plays, why should the three-play drive be four times better than the 12-play drive?" Oliver said. "In many cases, the 12-play drive is better. I don't know how we do that, but it is something we have talked about.

"For most of the work that we do, that doesn't affect anything, but I think it's a great conceptual question that hopefully we can figure out in the near future."

I found QBR most useful when it diverged significantly from NFL passer rating, as it did notably for Smith. Using the formula to declare one quarterback absolutely better than another made little sense. But if we could find out why QBR diverged from NFL passer rating or our perceptions in general, that could be of value.

For Smith, taking sacks spelled a large part of the discrepancy. Some made the case that Smith's offensive line was disproportionately responsible for many of those sacks. I thought Smith was content taking sacks to avoid interceptions, a tradeoff that helped explain the gap between NFL passer rating, which does not account for sacks, and QBR, which does.

My current take: Offensive lines are more to blame for some sacks, perhaps explaining why a QBR score suffered unexpectedly for a single game. Overall, though, the blame distribution evens out, creating more reliable results for a full season.

This discussion isn't for everyone. Apologies to those who don't care for analytics as they relate to football. My hope is to find more relevant applications.

Justin from Davis, Calif., asks whether there's something more to Alex Smith. Specifically, can he become truly elite? "What is the hope of someone transforming into a superstar quarterback after so many non-performing years?"

Mike Sando: Before analyzing Smith as a player, let's tip our caps to him for helping the coordinated search for a missing Bay Area teenager over the weekend. His presence helped bring awareness to the search beyond whatever direct assistance he provided. That is commendable.

As for your question, Justin, let's more clearly define the word "elite" for these purposes. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees strike me as truly elite quarterbacks. Smith probably is not going to suddenly put up 30-40 touchdown passes per season.

Smith was most remarkable last season for avoiding mistakes. His interception percentage, 1.1, was third-lowest in NFL history for a player with at least 400 pass attempts. His numbers were good -- 17 touchdowns, five interceptions, 90.7 NFL passer rating -- but far from prolific. They were not elite QB numbers. They were smart, cautious numbers.

The percentages say Smith will have a hard time maintaining such a low interception rate. However, I do think it's possible for him to improve upon his 2011 numbers. Matt Cassel is not an elite quarterback, but he had a 27-7 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions in 2010. Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman have put together similar ratios in recent seasons.

The 49ers probably will not ask Smith to carry their team. They will want him to protect the football. But with more opportunistic play in the red zone and improved efficiency on third down, Smith can make progress in 2012.

Any knowledgeable NFC West fan knows what happens when Matt Forte runs across Patrick Willis.

On the field, Willis helped hold Forte to 2.05 yards per carry as Willis' San Francisco 49ers defeated Forte's Chicago Bears 10-6. We'll conveniently overlook Forte's 120-yard receiving performance during that 2009 matchup at Candlestick Park.

Off the field, Willis defeated Forte to advance in the "Madden 13" cover competition.

Willis was a No. 11 seed to Forte's No. 6, but it's not Willis' fault someone underrated him. Perhaps the folks in charge of seeding were going by most contract complaints lodged instead of most first-team Associated Press All-Pro selections.

Willis faces Maurice Jones-Drew in the next round.

Seattle's Marshawn Lynch takes on Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers after defeating Chris Johnson in the previous round.

Arizona's Larry Fitzgerald goes against Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy after defeating Troy Polamalu.

My choices for this next round: Cam Newton, Fitzgerald, Willis, Darrelle Revis, Lynch, Drew Brees, Calvin Johnson and Jared Allen.

Vote here.

Severe punishment handed down to the New Orleans Saints moved their bounty scandal into the No. 2 spot, past Spygate, on our recent list of top NFL scandals.

Some thought it should have outranked the Michael Vick dogfighting scandal, a subject Mike Golic and Doug Gottlieb debated Wednesday on Mike & Mike in the Morning .

There was too much happening too quickly -- Alex Smith re-signing, Jeff Fisher holding a news conference, etc. -- for me to join the discussion Wednesday. Thanks to those who reached out to offer their opinions on the matter.

"Mike Vick at the 1 spot? Drop that to 2," DrHawk12 wrote. "Yeah, cruelty to animals, but Saints performed cruelty to humans. It's that simple."

Not quite.

The Saints' bounty scandal will not deprive them of their best player, Drew Brees. While Vick's behavior was decried almost universally, the Saints' actions initially provoked debate among fans and players over whether the Saints had even done anything wrong. Some still see the NFL's punishment as hypocritical, over the top and unwarranted.

It also remains unknown how much the punishment will affect the Saints' on-field success.

Vick was convicted of a felony and went to prison in his prime. He had a $100 million contract and was the face of the franchise. His demise sent the Falcons spiraling into a 4-12 season.

I was initially inclined to rank Spygate over the bounty scandal on the merits, but the punishment against the Saints was so much stronger. As always there was room for debate.

"Yeah, filming someone is way worse than intentionally trying to injure someone or send them off in a cart," Ultrawolf123 cracked.

The chart below, from ESPN Stats & Information, shows which teams have lost draft choices as punishment since 1980.

On the surface, Peyton Manning blew his best opportunity to win a Super Bowl quickly when he chose the Denver Broncos over the San Francisco 49ers.

His reasoning?

Peter King, citing a 49ers source, says unrealistic expectations in San Francisco might have been a turn-off.

"SB-or-bust feel would have bugged PM," King tweeted.

There's no sense in criticizing Manning for what a 49ers source perceived the quarterback's motivations to be. We cannot say for certain whether Manning feels that way. Surely there were multiple reasons for his decision, some of which might never become known.

The reality, however, is that anything short of a Super Bowl appearance with Manning indeed would have qualified as a disappointment for the 49ers. And there were no guarantees the 49ers were going to advance that far, even with Manning.

Much was made of Manning's potential aversion to facing his brother, Eli, in the NFC playoffs. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford also carried deterrent factors relative to most of their AFC counterparts.

If the 49ers offered the best team situation for Manning, the Broncos or any AFC contender offered a clearer path to the Super Bowl.

New England, Baltimore, Houston, Denver, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati were the top six teams in the AFC last season. The NFC was much stronger with Green Bay, New Orleans, the Giants, Atlanta and Detroit standing in the 49ers' way.

Very good teams with very good quarterbacks fall short every year -- especially when faced with stiff competition within their conference.

Last season, Green Bay went from the cusp of 16-0 to one-and-done in the playoffs, losing at home to the Giants. The 49ers barely outlasted New Orleans in the divisional round with Alex Smith making plays even Manning could not duplicate, notably a signature 28-yard touchdown run deep in the fourth quarter.

San Francisco went 13-3 last season. Manning beat that record only twice during his 13 seasons as the Indianapolis Colts' starting quarterback.

The 49ers, 6-2 on the road last season, travel to face the Packers, Saints and Patriots outside the NFC West in 2012. They could have finished 12-4 with Manning and regressed. The Broncos can go 11-5 with him and point to a three-game improvement in the standings.

The blowout defeat Denver suffered to New England in the divisional round suggested the Broncos were championship pretenders.

From Manning's perspective, however, he's joining a team that won a playoff game without a consistent passing threat and in a conference without as many contending teams. If the job comes with lower expectations at the outset, all the better.

Five considerations now that Peyton Manning has told the San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans he plans to sign with the Denver Broncos:

• More On Manning

  Peyton Picks Broncos:
  You can call this The Drive Part III: John Elway's determination to get Peyton Manning makes the Broncos a contender again, Ashley Fox writes. Story

  Peyton Manning's decision to play for the Broncos is very bad news for the rest of the AFC West, John Clayton writes. Story

  Manning has a kindred spirit in his corner with Elway as his boss, a big reason why he picked the Broncos, Bill Williamson writes. Blog

  • How Manning fits
  • How good are Broncos?
  • NFL Nation: Bloggers react
  • Mike and Mike: Chris Mortensen
  

  ---

  Tim Tebow Watch:
  Mel Kiper breaks down five teams that may be interested in Denver quarterback Tim Tebow, now that Peyton Manning looks to be the starting QB for the Broncos. Story

  • NFL Nation: Bloggers on Tebow's fate
  • Rumors: Who wants Tebow?
  • ESPN Boston: Tebow a fit for Pats?
  • Vote: Tebow's future in NFL?

  ---

  SportsNation:
  Peyton Manning's pick of a team set Twitter abuzz and drew reaction from several current and former NFL players. Not all (Deion Sanders) were fans of the move. Reaction

  • Vote: Peyton, Broncos a good fit?
  • Vote: Rank Broncos after move
  • Quiz: Broncos QBs since 2000

  More:
  • Fantasy: Broncos WRs gain value
  • Stats & Info: What Manning brings
  • Peyton Manning photo gallery

  Big sighs of relief: Arizona, Seattle and St. Louis no longer must worry about defending against a Manning-led 49ers offense. A healthy Manning would have made the 49ers even more formidable than they were while going 5-1 against the division last season. It's looking like the Seahawks will be the team in the division with the best shot at upgrading their quarterback situation.
• Harbaugh must take lead: The seemingly special bond between 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh and 2011 starter Alex Smith could need some repairing. That should not be too difficult if Harbaugh has been forthright with Smith throughout the process. The 49ers, like the Cardinals, will want to define their interest in Manning as a special case unrelated to their incumbent quarterback. Re-signing Smith should be a no-brainer now.
• Smith's only logical option. Smith has made it known he wants to continue playing for the 49ers. Hurt feelings suffered during negotiations and the Manning diversion should not be grounds for divorce. Unless Smith acts hastily out of anger, which seems unlikely given his temperament, the 49ers should now be able to re-sign Smith to a deal that gives them the flexibility to hand things over to Colin Kaepernick in the next couple years if Smith falters. The 49ers did lose some leverage, however, when Manning picked Denver over Tennessee. A deal with the Titans would have pushed Matt Hasselbeck onto the market.
• Forget about Tim Tebow. The Broncos wanted Manning not only because Manning is a great quarterback when healthy, but also because the organization was seeking a Tebow exit strategy. Manning's acquisition provides the perfect cover for Broncos executive John Elway, who has made clear his feelings that Tebow's playing style is not sustainable. I would not anticipate NFC West teams having interest in Tebow if the Broncos tried to trade him.
• Manning not on schedule. NFC West teams do not play the Broncos in 2012. They still face a lengthy list of talented quarterbacks, including Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo and Jay Cutler. Every NFC West team does face the Miami Dolphins, who lost out on Manning, did not sign Flynn and could have a tougher time signing Smith now that the 49ers have lost out on Manning.

It's a relief to have the Manning situation resolved. I was looking forward to the possibility of having him in the division, however, whether with Arizona or San Francisco.

The San Francisco 49ers realized a terrific return on investment by signing Carlos Rogers to a one-year deal in free agency last offseason.

Rogers put together a Pro Bowl season, positioning himself for a big payday.

The 49ers now have options. They could sign the 30-year-old corner at a premium price. They could seek another bargain at the position. They could try to sign Rogers once the market settles, provided he remains unsigned. They could identify younger talent at the position and proceed accordingly.

The team has already signed former Denver Broncos starter Perrish Cox to a two-year deal. Initial reports are linking the 49ers to former Kansas City cornerback Brandon Carr and Detroit Lions corner Eric Wright in free agency.

It's early and I would caution against making assumptions prematurely. I'll be watching to see how much money the 49ers invest in the position. Their current leadership released Nate Clements and the fat contract Clements signed as a free agent years earlier. That same leadership gave former starter Shawntae Spencer permission to seek a trade. The 49ers used 2011 third- and seventh-round choices on corners.

NFC West teams face a long list of top quarterbacks in 2012. The 49ers are scheduled to go against Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning and Drew Brees.

Purely from a football standpoint, they would likely be best off with Rogers. That doesn't necessarily make him the best value.

Justin Smith, Patrick Willis, Steven Jackson, Adrian Wilson and Larry Fitzgerald were among the current NFC West players I considered best qualified the ESPN.com/ESPN The Magazine's NFL Any Era team.

There were other less-accomplished players I felt fit the mold, including Chris Clemons, Chris Long, James Laurinaitis, etc.

But when ESPN shared with me an advance copy of the list, Smith's exclusion bothered me the most. Willis made it at No. 7, and rightly so. The top four positions have not yet been revealed, but No. 94 for the 49ers is not among them.

"If I could exchange myself today and give it to somebody else, I would give it to Justin and I would be off of it," Willis said of his Any Era selection. "Because honestly, he is who makes me who I am. This guy, he really makes my world a lot easier."

Anyone watching the 49ers closely during their recent postseason run got to see how Smith plays every week. Smith had 10 tackles, two sacks and nine quarterback hits in those games. He drove both opponents' left tackles straight backward into their quarterbacks, dragging down Drew Brees and mauling Eli Manning.

"He is no prima donna d-tackle," Willis said. "This guy is the real deal. He is not 400-and-some pounds and just sitting there like a big glob. He is not 270 pounds where he is just trying to swim a gap. This man is 300 pounds on the money and he is going to go right through you."

Smith has started 171 consecutive regular-season games. The way Smith's neck and head fill his helmet creates an old-school look.

"Those are the types of guys I want to play with," Willis said. "Hard-nosed guys. You get guys that just want to be pass rushers or you get guys who don't want to move. I don’t think you are a complete guy. Justin is a very complete d-tackle to me. Man, I’ll tell you what, he has been the heart and soul of this defense."

With Brian Schottenheimer in line to become the St. Louis Rams' offensive coordinator, I'll republish a chart we discussed recently. This one shows the New York Jets' offensive production with Schottenheiemer as coordinator.

About one year ago, our AFC East blog featured an item leading this way: "Brian Schottenheimer's prospects for being a head coach never have been higher."

That item noted that Schottenheimer had worked with Tony Banks, Jeff George, Drew Brees, Doug Flutie, Philip Rivers, Chad Pennington, Kellen Clemens, Brett Favre and Mark Sanchez over the years -- quite a varied group.

Clemens' presence on the Rams' roster right now could mean the team already has its top two quarterbacks for 2012, with Sam Bradford as the starter. Clemens would presumably know Schottenheimer's offense. That would enable him to assist Bradford and other players as the Rams learn a new system.

Opinions on Schottenheimer are mixed. Some think he became too predictable as a play caller and contributed to Sanchez's stunted development. A case could also be made that Schottenheimer did the best he could with a limited quarterback.

It's possible neither of those things is true. Those seeking context should check out this Newark Star-Ledger piece on Schottenheimer and the Jets from earlier in the 2011 season.

The Rams also interviewed former Oakland Raiders coach Hue Jackson for the role. They are also working on additional staff hires.

The San Francisco 49ers play violent defense. They dominate on special teams. They limit turnovers by design and through impeccable decision making. They are good enough on offense to win close games against teams with flawed defenses.

Put it all together and the 49ers are a clear choice to win at home against a less consistent New York Giants team in the NFC Championship Game.

Sure, lots of things can send a football game heading in unexpected directions. Those things are less reliable than the 49ers have been.

Last week, 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh told his players to trust their instincts heading into the team's first playoff appearance since January 2003. Good advice for all of us. I wasn't sure the 49ers could outscore New Orleans, but my instincts said they would win at home and a certain tight end would play a leading role in the outcome.

This week, Harbaugh's warning against "overcooking" things comes to mind.

The Giants were 9-7 this season. They lost by double digits at home to Washington a month ago in a game they needed to win. Their victory over 15-1 Green Bay last week served notice they're dangerous. But as well as the Giants played at Lambeau Field, the Packers were at least as horrendous.

The 49ers, 13-3 during the regular season, would have beaten the Packers, too. They put a physical beating on Drew Brees and the Saints, a team that finished the season strong and was playing better than the Packers were playing lately. When Brees hit for two big plays late in the game, the 49ers never flinched. They fired back and won.

Saints-49ers felt like a 50-50 call. Giants-49ers feels more like 60-40 in favor of San Francisco. You want a final score? Let's go with 27-17 and let's see if Frank Gore has something to say about the outcome.

Six of eight humans predicting NFL outcomes for ESPN cast their votes for the New York Giants over the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship game.

They were split on the 49ers and New Orleans Saints last week. I'll post my prediction Friday, along with the "You called it" item that usually runs on Thursdays (moved back this week after a power outage threw off my usual routine). In the meantime, here's a link to the most recent NFC West chat, followed by a few highlights:

Thomas from Spokane, Wash., thinks the San Francisco 49ers might need a breakout game from Michael Crabtree or Kyle Williams to beat the New York Giants in the NFC Championship game.

Mike Sando: Crabtree is someone I initially thought needed to step up in this next game. We might also recall Kendall Hunter breaking a touchdown run against the Giants last time. He is someone to watch. Someone on ESPN or NFL Network was recently illustrating how the Giants used three safeties to help defend Vernon Davis in the last game. Alex Smith still completed 9 of 11 passes to tight ends in that game. Delanie Walker caught six passes for 69 yards. Davis had a 31-yard touchdown reception in that game. The fact that the Giants will try to take away Davis does not guarantee they will succeed. One question, though, is whether the 49ers need Davis to stick around in protection a little more. The 49ers need to keep Justin Tuck and those pass-rushers off Alex Smith.

D from Phoenix thinks the Arizona Cardinals will keep their top two quarterbacks, bring back Levi Brown, draft a right tackle, draft a guard, sign a linebacker, sign a receiver and select the best player available (with less regard for position) at No. 13 overall.

Mike Sando: Your thinking makes sense whether or not they bring back Levi Brown. They need a tackle. I would also endorse adding pass-rush help. A team can never have too much in that area. Look how much better the 49ers are after adding Aldon Smith.

Roland from Winnipeg wonders to what degree personnel (more than coaching) explains some of the struggles potential St. Louis Rams coordinators Brian Schottenheimer and Gregg Williams experienced recently.

Mike Sando: The fits would be good from a philosophical standpoint. Williams obviously knows defense. He's been hired as a head coach. I question whether blitzing so much is the way to go over time, but when you have Drew Brees as your quarterback and a 7,000-yard offense, you can take some chances. I've been a bit skeptical on Mark Sanchez for a while, so I might be more inclined to cut Schottenheimer some slack there. These would appear to be solid hires, not spectacular ones. Then again, Josh McDaniels was more of a spectacular one, and that didn't work out. Personnel matters most.

Matt from Green Bay posed as Packers backup Matt Flynn in asking what type of contract the Seattle Seahawks might offer him in free agency, and whether they would give him a fair shot at the starting job.

Mike Sando: The Seahawks believe in competition, but do they believe in Matt Flynn? If they did, would they have at least tried to acquire him a couple years ago, when they went after Charlie Whitehurst instead? They would have had the inside info on Flynn because their general manager was with the Packers when Green Bay drafted Flynn. I'm not convinced the Seahawks are itching to give Flynn a big contract. I do think Seattle would consider adding another prospect in the $4-5 million per year range, unless there's a college prospect the team intends to draft.

I didn't realize til after the chat that the Flynn question was basically the only Seahawks-related one I fielded. Sorry about that. We've covered Flynn's situation previously.

The San Francisco 49ers picked off Drew Brees twice on longer throws.

That came as little surprise even though Brees was riding an NFL record for consecutive postseason passes without a pick.

The 49ers, despite giving up a dozen pass plays covering 40-plus yards during the regular season, have consistently made plays on passes thrown 15-plus yards past the line of scrimmage.

This is a matchup to watch when the 49ers face the New York Giants' Eli Manning in the NFC Championship Game, as the chart lays out.

Manning has a strong arm and talented, big-play receivers. He led the NFL in regular-season attempts and ranked seventh in touchdowns out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks on passes traveling 15-plus yards downfield.

The 49ers led the NFL with 17 interceptions on these throws.

Longer strikes were a high-risk, high-reward proposition for the Saints at Candlestick Park. Brees completed 3 of 9 passes for 111 yards with two touchdowns and two picks on these throws. He completed 37 of 54 passes for 351 yards with two touchdowns and no picks on his remaining throws.

Thanks to Matt Willis of ESPN Stats & Information for the chart info. More here.

.