NFC West: James Harrison

Thoughts on Seattle Seahawks first-round pick Bruce Irvin after reading John Clayton's piece questioning the selection:
  • Specific role: The Seahawks envision Irvin as a situational pass-rusher for now and the evenutal successor to Chris Clemons in the "Leo" role. Clemons was a 236-pound linebacker coming out of college. He had a 4.7-second time in the 40-yard dash, went undrafted as a junior and floundered in Philadelphia. The Seahawks acquired him with a specific role in mind. Clemons ranks eighth in the NFL with 22 sacks over the last two seasons, more than Julius Peppers, James Harrison, Clay Matthews, Dwight Freeney, Trent Cole, Jason Pierre-Paul and others. Clemons now weighs 255 pounds and has become much stronger against the run. Irvin is Clemons' height (6-foot-3) and weighs 245 pounds, but he is much faster, having run the 40 in 4.4 seconds. The plan would be for Irvin to grow into a bigger role, not to remain a situational player forever.
  • Value at No. 15: Draft analysts did not anticipate Irvin's selection at No. 15. It's impossible to know whether the Seahawks could have drafted Irvin later than that. Three teams running variations of the 4-3 defense selected defensive ends in the first round. Irvin went first, followed by Shea McClellin to Chicago at No. 19 and Chandler Jones to New England at No. 21. Jacksonville, picking 38th, was the next 4-3 team to select a defensive end (Andre Branch). There was a six-pick window for 4-3 teams to select a pass-rusher in the first round. Seattle opened the window. Chicago and New England closed it, with the Patriots trading up to make sure the window did not slam on them. The Seahawks liked Jones, but concerns over a toe injury raised questions about how early they would select him. They were comfortable with the off-field issues Irvin carried into the draft.
  • Whether Irvin starts: Aldon Smith collected 14 sacks in a situational role with San Francisco last season. Robert Mathis had three seasons with double-digit sacks as a reserve at various points in his career with Indianapolis. Years ago, a young Anthony Smith put together three consecutive seasons with double-digit sacks despite rarely starting for the Los Angeles Raiders. The plan is for Aldon Smith to become a starter this year. Mathis continued to produce as a starter. Anthony Smith's sack numbers fell. Clemons is the best comparison for Irvin. They have physical similarities. They are playing in the same scheme. The same coaches and personnel people decided they fit the same role.

Irvin will be a fun player to watch during training camp. Dexter Davis is another Seattle pass-rusher to keep in mind. He missed all but one game last season after suffering a hip injury and could be overlooked heading toward the season.
Raise your hand if you had the San Francisco 49ers selecting Aldon Smith with the seventh overall choice in the 2011 NFL draft.

Not seeing many hands out there. Not seeing any hands, actually.

OK, let's try this again.

Raise your hand if you had the Seattle Seahawks selecting James Carpenter at No. 25.

Hmmm. Not seeing many hands out there. Not seeing any, actually.

Do not feel bad. Even if you knew which 32 players would become first-round picks in a given NFL draft, there would be more than 263 decillion possible combinations.

The number looks like this: 263,130,836,933,693,530,167,218,012,160,000,000.

With that in mind, our 2012 NFL Blog Network mock draft comes guaranteed not for accuracy but for its ability to promote conversation, a process that has already begun here on the NFC West blog.

"Kendall Wright pick makes no sense" CHI-TOWN-BULLS protested upon seeing the Baylor receiver projected for the49ers at No. 30.

More on that in a minute.

We penciled in Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III at the top with a reasonable degree of confidence. Matt Kalil, Trent Richardson, Morris Claiborne and Justin Blackmon fell third through sixth. Most choices seemed logical, but somewhere among the top five or 10 selections, an NFL team breaks from projected form, tapping into those 263 decillion combinations.

Two years ago, the Jacksonville Jaguars obliterated mock drafts by selecting Tyson Alualu with the 10th pick. Last year, four quarterbacks went among the top 12 choices, with Christian Ponder a surprise choice for Minnesota at No. 12.

My thinking for the NFC West was rather straightforward:
  • Rams at No. 6: Blackmon was an easy choice. The team has an obvious need for a wide receiver. Blackmon is widely regarded as the highest-rated one in this draft class, to the point that some question whether he will be available to the Rams. Going in another direction for this mock would have represented over-thinking a simple situation. Sure, St. Louis could trade back or select a player at another position. Richardson or Claiborne would carry appeal if available. But when Blackmon was available, I turned in the imaginary card right away.
  • Seahawks at No. 12. I wondered going into the mock whether Boston College linebacker Luke Kuechly might be available for Seattle in this slot. Would the team take an inside linebacker that early? San Francisco fared well taking Patrick Willis with the 11th pick in 2007. Scot McCloughan, now a top Seahawks personnel executive, was the driving force behind the Willis decision. Would the Seahawks see Kuechly in a similar light? They do need help at linebacker, after all. The thought became a fleeting one when Kuechly went to Carolina at No. 9. That made it easier to focus on the highest-rated pass-rushers. Quinton Coples was the choice because he seemed to be the most talented one available, based on scouting reports.
  • Cardinals at No. 13. This choice was tougher than the previous two. I went with Alabama's Courtney Upshaw, figuring he might fit the profile for a pass-rushing outside linebacker in the Cardinals' 3-4 scheme. He's on the shorter side at not quite 6-foot-2, and there is no clear consensus on whether Upshaw projects as an outside linebacker. The height factor seemed less important given that Arizona patterns its defensive scheme after the one Pittsburgh has used under Dick LeBeau. The Steelers' LaMarr Woodley (6-2) and James Harrison (6-0) get the job done. Could Upshaw enjoy situational success the way Smith did as a rookie for San Francisco last season? Receiver Michael Floyd was a consideration for Arizona. I thought the Cardinals needed improved quarterback play more than they needed improved receiver talent.
  • 49ers at No. 30. Wright was the choice simply because he appeared to be the highest-rated receiver available, but the 49ers could easily go in another direction. Quite a few mock drafts have linked Georgia Tech's Stephen Hill to the 49ers, but he was not available to them in this mock, having gone 22nd to Cleveland. I was drafting more for position than for the specific player. The 49ers could use another cornerback. Perhaps Janoris Jenkins would have been a better value choice. He went 31st to New England in our mock. The 49ers could use a starting right guard, but they might already have one in Daniel Kilgore, a 2011 draft choice. Besides, how many first-round picks can one team use for offensive linemen? Current starters Joe Staley, Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis were first-rounders. Ultimately, the 49ers are picking this late for a reason. They don't have as many clearly defined needs as less successful teams. They're in good position to keep an open mind.

I used ESPN's 2012 NFL Draft Machine to make selections and keep general track of which players remained available as the mock unfolded. Toggling between the overall list and specific position lists made it easier to balance value with need.

This conversation is to be continued.

Scout's take: 49ers vs. Steelers on MNF

December, 15, 2011
12/15/11
7:23
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Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. offered thoughts Thursday heading into the San Francisco 49ers' game Monday night against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Candlestick Park.

Mike Sando: This game against the Steelers provides the 49ers with an opportunity to defeat a quality opponent on a national stage, while keeping control of the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoff race. My sense is that the 49ers, though still a good team, have plateaued a little bit lately.

Matt Williamson: I think that is a good word. They might have hit their head on the ceiling. The talent has taken them as far as it will. That does not mean they cannot win playoff games. But this is a bad matchup for them against the Steelers. The 49ers lost to Arizona and the Cardinals are running the Steelers' defense. They've gotten better at it, but that defense has been clicking for the Steelers for years. They know what they are doing and they are going to give San Francisco's offense a hard time.

Mike Sando: The 49ers have taken 18 sacks over their past three games after allowing seven in their previous six. They aren't getting Frank Gore going as well on the ground, and Gore is banged up.

Matt Williamson: Their young offensive line does not pick up blitzes very well. They get beat one-on-one, especially on the right side. Ike Taylor can do a good job against Michael Crabtree. Troy Polamalu and the Steelers do well against tight ends. I just do not know where the 49ers' offense is going to come from. Alex Smith is not a guy who, when everything is going wrong, puts the team on his back.

Mike Sando: Several key players could miss this game for both teams -- Joe Staley and Patrick Willis for the 49ers, James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley for the Steelers. And then Ben Roethlisberger's ankle is an issue.

Matt Williamson: Roethlisberger will have had 10 days to rest. Everyone in the world knows he is going to play. Charlie Batch is not good.

If Harrison doesn't play and Ben doesn't play, I'll take the 49ers. But if Ben is out there at even 50 percent, I am taking Pittsburgh. The matchup is not good for the 49ers.

Mike Sando: The 49ers are strong on defense. What makes you think the Steelers' offense would be OK without Roethlisberger near full strength?

Matt Williamson: If you are the Steelers and Ben is not moving well, put him in the shotgun, go three wide receivers all day with a back in the backfield and get it out quick. Don't even have him dropping back. Get the ball out quick to Antonio Brown especially, and Hines Ward. Do the quick three-step passing game out of the shotgun.

Mike Sando: Back to the 49ers' offense. One thing they've struggled with some is yards after the catch. They led the NFL at 6.8 yards after the catch per reception last season. That has fallen to 5.2 this season. And the Steelers' defense leads the NFL in fewest yards allowed after the catch on average at 4.3, an astounding 1.7 yards better than the next-best team, Houston.

Matt Williamson: I don't see a real good after-the-catch wide receiver in the group for San Francisco. Ted Ginn would catch only bombs. Michael Crabtree is not nifty. He is a slower, power guy. Vernon Davis can be, but his role has been diminished heavily and I'm not sure how well he grasps the offense, and they need him to help the tackles. I'm not sure who would be the guy, unless they dropped more passes off to Gore and Kendall Hunter.

Mike Sando: The 49ers have dramatically cut Gore's role as a receiver. That's one reason their team yards after the reception has fallen. Then there is the red zone. San Francisco ranks last in touchdown percentage there.

Matt Williamson: Every weakness is exaggerated in the red zone for a quarterback. There are a lot more bodies in a smaller space, a lot more molecules bouncing off the walls. You have to be a little more accurate, a little better anticipation. Donovan McNabb was not that great in the red zone. He was not an anticipatory thrower or very accurate. Smith has some of those qualities, too, but less. He is not as talented. But I know he's done well in the red zone before. One thing that comes to mind is a lack of involvement from Vernon Davis.

Mike Sando: Davis finished last season with eight catches for 50 yards and four touchdowns in the red zone. He has four catches for 48 yards and three scores there this season. Delanie Walker had five catches for 22 yards and no scores in the red zone in 2010. He has one catch for a 6-yard touchdown against Detroit in the red zone this season. But Smith's completion percentage has fallen from above 70 to around 40 in the red zone since last season. Sacks are up. Gore's carries in the red zone are up. His receptions are down. I'm not sure what is wrong down there, but improved efficiency in that area would certainly help Monday night.

Williamson and I will be among those participating in an in-game chat Monday night. I'll be at the game. Williamson will monitor remotely. Jamison Hensley from the AFC North blog will join us on the chat from Candlestick Park.

NFC West injury situations that matter

December, 14, 2011
12/14/11
6:53
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Arizona: Kevin Kolb's concussion symptoms have cleared, allowing him to resume practicing with the team Wednesday. Kolb told reporters he plans to take things slowly at first, adding reps each day before starting against Cleveland. This news was about as good as the Cardinals could have expected. The Cardinals are relatively healthy overall. Free safety Kerry Rhodes, recovered from a broken foot, is practicing without limitation. It's unclear how the Cardinals will work him back into the secondary rotation. Strong safety Adrian Wilson and the defense in general are playing better now than when Rhodes was injured. Several other players are working through nagging injuries, including Beanie Wells (knee) and Clark Haggans (hamstring).

St. Louis: Quarterback Sam Bradford played hurt Monday night and continues paying the price. He did not practice Wednesday and told reporters the situation had gotten worse. Bradford is back in a walking boot. The team placed fullback Brit Miller on injured reserve. Tackle Mark LeVoir, defensive end James Hall, defensive end Chris Long, cornerback Josh Gordy, safety Craig Dahl and defensive lineman Eugene Sims missed practice, as did Bradford and backup quarterback A.J. Feeley. Injuries are preventing a struggling team from competing for a full game. Defensive tackle Fred Robbins, sidelined by back trouble against Seattle, did return on a limited basis.

San Francisco: The 49ers do not play until Monday night, pushing back by one day the requirement for publishing an injury report. Left tackle Joe Staley (concussion) and linebacker Patrick Willis (hamstring) are the two most important players likely to appear on the injury report. Staley or backup left tackle Alex Boone will not have to face suspended Pittsburgh Steelers outside linebacker James Harrison. That will presumably help. Then again, the Steelers were 4-0 and had 13 sacks when Harrison missed four games earlier in the season. The team has not had more sacks in any four-game stretch. The season appears to be wearing on 49ers running back Frank Gore. His snaps were limited against Arizona and could be in the future.

Seattle: Linebacker Leroy Hill practiced fully Wednesday despite a neck injury, a good sign for Seattle given the team's depth issues at the position. Linebacker David Hawthorne rested his injured knee, no surprise. He's playing with an MCL injury that needs monitoring. Receiver Doug Baldwin (ankle), left guard Robert Gallery (hip), defensive end Raheem Brock (calf) and linebacker David Hawthorne (knee) did not practice. They were expected to play Sunday against the Chicago Bears. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson remained a full participant in practice despite his pectoral injury. Jackson seems to be getting stronger.

49ers get welcome breaks in 'MNF' matchup

December, 13, 2011
12/13/11
11:13
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Ben Roethlisberger's ankle injury has called into question whether the Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback will play against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 15.

Even if Roethlisberger plays, he might not be at full strength.

The Steelers found out Tuesday they'll be without one of their top defenders when the NFL levied a one-game suspension against linebacker James Harrison for the hit Harrison put on Cleveland Browns quarterback Colt McCoy.

The 49ers' pass protection has been shaky in recent weeks. The team lost left tackle Joe Staley to a concussion against Arizona in Week 14.

Harrison lines up at right outside linebacker about 80 percent of the time. Removing him from the lineup spares Staley or backup Alex Boone from matching up with one of the more feared defensive players in the league.

Harrison has three-sack games against Cincinnati and Baltimore this season. He plans to appeal his suspension, but a reversal appears unlikely, based on precedent.

Expanded list: Most sacks per pass play

December, 8, 2011
12/08/11
7:55
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Expanding on an earlier post, this one ranks NFL players by most sacks per pass play through Week 13.

The San Francisco 49ers' Aldon Smith ranks fourth on the list. The St. Louis Rams' Chris Long is 10th. The Arizona Cardinals' Sam Acho ranks 19th. Ex-Seattle Seahawk Lawrence Jackson is 14th. Ex-Ram Adam Carriker ranks 21st.

Smith is keeping impressive company. The next step for him, likely next season, will be to maintain his pass-rush production as an every-down player, when he'll also have to hold up against the run more frequently. So far, so good.

The St. Louis Rams' Robert Quinn did not quite make the chart. He has five sacks and a 2.2 percentage. Seattle's Chris Clemons has eight sacks and a 2.1 percentage.

Sacks are not the only measure of a player's performance, of course. The best pass-rushers tend to collect a lot of them, however.

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2011 Seahawks Week 2: Five observations

September, 23, 2011
9/23/11
12:35
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Five things I noticed while watching the Seattle Seahawks during their 24-0 defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 2:
  • The goal-line defense remains strong. Seattle ranks fifth in touchdown percentage allowed when opponents have goal-to-go situations. Safety Earl Thomas stood out more than once when the Seahawks turned over the ball on downs after Pittsburgh had first-and-goal from the 1. He's just so fast and explosive. Not many players Thomas' size could have brought down Rashard Mendenhall so decisively at the goal line on that fourth-down play.
  • The unbalanced lines seem gimmicky. The Seahawks face personnel challenges with tight end John Carlson on injured reserve and fullback Michael Robinson sidelined indefinitely. They have reacted by occasionally using unbalanced lines. This doesn't seem to accomplish much. Tight end Zach Miller lined up at left tackle on third-and-9 from deep in Seattle territory. He did a good job chopping down Steelers linebacker James Harrison, but running back Marshawn Lynch went nowhere anyway. The Seahawks have yet to target Miller as a receiver on third down this season.
  • Special-teams coverage is a concern. Antonio Brown's 41-yard punt return late in the first quarter came to mind. Richard Sherman slipped, Kam Chancellor lost sideline containment, Justin Forsett got blocked and Clint Gresham missed before linebacker K.J. Wright tracked down Brown near midfield. Wright will be starting at linebacker this week, possibly affecting his special-teams reps. Coverage units are a concern against Arizona's Patrick Peterson and, possibly, LaRod Stephens-Howling.
  • It was time on Aaron Curry. The lineup change from Wright to Curry for Week 3 seems appropriate after watching this game more closely. The interception Curry dropped allowed the Steelers to sustain a touchdown drive for a 14-0 lead. The Steelers scored that touchdown when Curry rushed toward the line of scrimmage and ran right into pulling guard Ramon Foster, who cleared the way for Isaac Redman to find the end zone. Chancellor and linebacker Matt McCoy missed Redman, with Chancellor overrunning him. None of it happens if Curry makes what should have been a routine interception.
  • Tarvaris Jackson must do more. The Seahawks' quarterback has too often faced pressure quickly. He needs to better maximize opportunities when he does have time. A third-and-9 play midway through the second quarter comes to mind. With Miller helping in protection, Jackson had plenty of time. When he finally did throw, he missed Ben Obomanu high for what should have been a 20-yard gain to the Pittsburgh 32. Obomanu should have caught the ball anyway, but a more accurate throw delivered earlier would have helped. Jackson has completed none of his five pass attempts this season when the ball traveled more than 20 yards downfield. He's had receivers open, too.

I'll generally post these earlier in the week. The Monday night game in East Rutherford, N.J., threw off the usual schedule this time.

Injury thoughts on Sidney Rice, NFC West

September, 16, 2011
9/16/11
4:36
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Three late-week thoughts on developing injury situations:
  • The Seattle Seahawks listed receiver Sidney Rice as "out" for their game against Pittsburgh. Rice had been a limited participant in practice this week. I can see why the team wouldn't want to throw its highest-priced free-agent addition onto the field against James Harrison and Troy Polamalu in what would have been Rice's first game since the third week of preseason. Rice's shoulder will presumably let him play when Seattle opens its NFC West schedule against Arizona in Week 3.
  • The Cardinals are listing running back LaRod Stephens-Howling (hand) and linebacker Daryl Washington (calf) as questionable. Neither practiced this week. Stephens-Howling is most valuable on special teams. Putting him on the field with a hand injury would compromise ball security on returns and on offense. Arizona would miss Washington, who is becoming a big-play threat on defense.
  • Seattle is moving Robert Gallery back into the lineup at left guard, with James Carpenter moving back to right tackle. I'm not sure another lineup change is worth the payoff under the circumstances. This will be the 13th starting combination the Seahawks have used on their line since the 2010 opener.
  • Michael Crabtree's availability to the San Francisco 49ers probably will not be known until 90 minutes before kickoff, when teams must declare inactive players. The 49ers ran only 12 snaps with three wide receivers in Week 1, the second-lowest figure in the league, according to ESPN Stats & Information. They will presumably want to open up their offense against Dallas, at least to some degree, but their personnel gives them flexibility. Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker can both factor into the receiving game.
  • The St. Louis Rams have more serious injuries than any NFC West team, but they aren't playing until Monday night.

All for now. Back soon, though.

Final Word: NFC West

September, 16, 2011
9/16/11
1:30
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» NFC Final Word: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

Five nuggets of knowledge about Week 2:

[+] Enlarge
Kevin Kolb
Mark J. Rebilas/US PresswireArizona's Kevin Kolb fared well in Week 1 when the defense brought at least five pass-rushers.
Handling the pressure. Only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers ranked higher than the Arizona Cardinals' Kevin Kolb in NFL passer rating (139.2) when defenses brought at least five pass-rushers in Week 1, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Kolb led the league in QBR (98.7) in these situations among players with at least one pass attempt, completing six of 11 passes for 196 yards and two touchdowns. His Washington Redskins counterpart, Rex Grossman, put up solid numbers overall, but his NFL passer rating (70.3) and QBR (13.6) lagged badly against five or more rushers. The Cardinals weren't shy about bringing pressure against Carolina, but they struggled to stop Cam Newton in these situations.

About those early kickoffs. For years, the Seattle Seahawks struggled to win games kicking off at 10 a.m. PT unless they were played in St. Louis, where the long-struggling Rams made for an inviting opponent. Times changed last season. The Seahawks went 1-1 in early games, beating the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field after losing in St. Louis. Seattle joins Arizona among Western teams playing early games Sunday. The Cardinals were 3-0 in 10 a.m. PT kickoffs the last time they felt good about their quarterback situation, in 2009. They were 0-4 in early kickoffs for 2010.

Sam Bradford's downfield throws. Bradford and Rams offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels went into the season saying they planned to incorporate more downfield throws into their offense. It did not happen during an opening-week defeat against Philadelphia. Four of Bradford's 30 attempts (13.3 percent) traveled at least 15 yards in the air. The percentage for Bradford was 13.7 last season, lowest among qualifying quarterbacks, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Bradford and the Rams should have additional downfield opportunities against the New York Giants' injury-depleted secondary.

49ers' offensive aggression. Coach Jim Harbaugh kept a straight face while telling reporters the team was being aggressive against Seattle when it ran the ball in traditional passing situations. The 49ers ran the ball six times on third-down plays when they needed more than a yard for a first down. This included four plays of third-and-4 or longer. The 49ers converted none of these six rushing plays. The approach was good enough to defeat a Seattle team that wasn't getting much accomplished offensively until late. How well the 49ers fare when opening up the offense against Dallas stands as a leading NFC West storyline for Week 2.

Tough duty for tackles. NFC West offensive tackles face some brutal matchups this week. DeMarcus Ware (Dallas), Brian Orakpo (Washington), Ryan Kerrigan (Washington) and James Harrison (Pittsburgh) are coming after NFC West quarterbacks. The Giants have been playing without injured defensive ends Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck, but if either one plays against St. Louis on Monday night, add their names to the list.
Lots and lots of San Francisco 49ers questions in the NFC West chat this week. That is fairly typical. I searched specifically for questions and comments referencing other teams. There were quite a few, but 49ers fans are running away with the offseason chat championship.

Go ahead, non-49ers fans. Crack wise on the 49ers winning another offseason. Go ahead, 49ers fans. Fire back about how many championships your team has collected over the years. Lather, rinse and repeat as desired.

Just don't pull a James Harrison on anyone. Harrison, whose inflammatory comments made him a page-views leader Wednesday, surfaced during the chat. Let's get to the highlights.
Shane from Los Angeles asked whether Harrison had talked his way out of Pittsburgh, suggesting Arizona as a logical destination for him.

Mike Sando: That would be a sensational scenario for the Cardinals. Yes, Ray Horton's presence in Arizona would make the Cardinals a natural fit. Ken Whisenhunt's presence would be another factor. I just have a hard time believing a team would part with such a productive player under these circumstances. It's not like Harrison ran afoul of the law. He ran his mouth. Big difference.

Bones from Minneapolis wonders whether 2011 might become Frank Gore's final season with the 49ers. He also asked about Anthony Dixon adding weight and possibly projecting as a fullback, a question I forgot to answer during the chat, but will address at the bottom of this blog entry.

Mike Sando: Gore is entering the final season of his contract with the 49ers. There are no guarantees the team will bring him back. Gore is at that point in his career where running backs tend to begin declining. He has had some injury problems. The team drafted Kendall Hunter in the fourth round this season, identifying him as more than just a change-of-pace guy. The writing is on the wall for Gore heading into this season. I have a hard time envisioning the 49ers giving him a lucrative extension based on the likelihood of an older running back producing at a high level consistently.

Steve from Raleigh, N.C., asks whether Marshawn Lynch will top 1,000 yards in 2011, and whether Matt Hasselbeck will have a strong season.

Mike Sando: Lynch averaged 71.8 yards per game over a six-game stretch ending with the Seahawks' victory over New Orleans in the wild-card round. That type of production would project to about 1,150 yards over a 16-game season. I think it's reasonable to expect improved play from the offensive line and a strong commitment to the run in a post-Jeremy Bates offense (I am not faulting Bates for his approach, but rather acknowledging Pete Carroll's intent to run the ball more as one reason the team changed coordinators). Justin Forsett will command some touches, too, so that could affect Lynch's totals. I think Lynch has a decent shot at 1,000 this season, but I'd take the under if forced to bet. Matt Hasselbeck has not had a good year in some time. I don't expect him to suddenly start having good years, based on his age and supporting cast. But the new offensive system would suit him.

MattC from Dallas wants to know whether Mark Clayton projects as the St. Louis Rams' No. 1 receiver in 2011.

Mike Sando: That's a little bit of a stretch based on Clayton's injury and the numbers at receiver. I don't see a true No. 1 receiver on the roster. I'd give Clayton a decent shot at reemerging as the threat he instantly became last season, but the Rams will probably be healthier at the position. They'll have more options. That could dilute the opportunities for Clayton, who faces challenges of his own.

Back to Bones' question about Dixon gaining weight and possibly projecting at fullback. I'm skeptical. The 49ers are indeed open to converting players to fullback. Bruce Miller played defense in college, but the 49ers will try him at fullback. I'm just skeptical about a runner suddenly having the mindset of a blocker. That isn't a natural conversion for everyone. Miller played defense, so he's more apt to have the sledgehammer mentality. If I were the 49ers, I'd rather shift Nate Byham into the backfield from tight end on occasion. The team did that with him periodically last season. Byham is a strong blocker.

Sando chat scheduled for 1 p.m. ET

July, 14, 2011
7/14/11
9:04
AM ET
The next NFC West chat should be a good one as long as James Harrison doesn't show up with his FN Five-Seven pistol or Smith & Wesson 460V revolver.

Just kidding, James. You can bring 'em as long they're not loaded.

Simply follow this link. The fun begins Thursday at 1 p.m. ET.
The harsh words from Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker James Harrison regarding NFL commissioner Roger Goodell qualify as more than simply another hard hit from one of the league's most physical defenders.

Harrison
Harrison
By calling Goodell a "crook" and a "devil" in comments to Men's Journal, Harrison was also highlighting the work that awaits Goodell once a new labor agreement is in place.

"If that man was on fire and I had to piss to put him out, I wouldn't do it," Harrison told the magazine. "I hate him and will never respect him."

Seattle Seahawks receiver Mike Williams sized up the situation accurately when we spoke about five weeks ago.

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"No disrespect to the commissioner because I have nothing personal against him," Williams said at the time, "but how everything has been handled and how the players feel about him and how things have been said, who is to say there is not going to be problems with that?"

Harrison is a special case. The league has fined him over violent hits against opponents it considered defenseless. Harrison has felt targeted. Unlike Williams, Harrison does have a negative personal history with the commissioner. Most players have less reason to feel as strongly as Harrison in their anti-Goodell sentiment.

But the anti-Goodell sentiment is strong. Players have taken personally his actions on behalf of owners during the lockout. Williams thought players would have a hard time treating Goodell credibly as judge and jury in the league's disciplinary matters regarding players. Harrison, though critical of the commissioner previously, never would have gotten so personal outside the current labor climate, in my view.

"I have been around long enough to see more than one NFL commissioner, and when I first got drafted and was following football, it seemed like the players love the shield," Williams said in June. "They embraced the relationship with the commissioner. I never heard a bad thing about him. When he did fine or suspend a guy, it was not a big deal."

Goodell made player discipline a higher-profile issue. Some players grumbled, but the lockout has taken their displeasure to another level. What Goodell says and how he recasts himself following the labor impasse will be critical to repairing the relationship.

Player's view: Lockout's vulnerable victims

June, 30, 2011
6/30/11
6:38
PM ET
Jason WrightChristian Petersen/Getty ImagesJason Wright is an eight-year veteran of the NFL and was an undrafted free agent out of college.
Arizona Cardinals fullback Jason Wright entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent with the San Francisco 49ers in 2004. He played for the Atlanta Falcons and Cleveland Browns before signing with Arizona for the 2009 season. His lockout-related thoughts follow:

We are all glad that consistent discussions are happening between the NFL Players Association and league ownership. Especially because it means that resolution is on its way, and resolution is the only news any of us really wants to hear at this point.

By now, we’ve all read far too many stories about secret meetings and court-ordered mediation. It’s so nauseating that if I see another story promoting some obscure piece of information from some "source" I will likely vomit. There’s been so much coverage that even non-sports enthusiasts feel like they can confidently wax philosophic on the situation. The inevitable result is the frustrated cynicism that comes from information overload. Last week, Cardinals wide receiver Steve Breaston captured the sentiments shared by fans, players, coaches, and even some owners in a witty spoken word. He breathed life back into the story by providing a fresh perspective. Here, I endeavor to do the same.

As the lockout has dragged on through the last few months, a common phrase has come to express the annoyance of the general public with CBA disagreements: "It’s millionaires versus billionaires." This is obviously an oversimplification, but the gist is this: Most of America is struggling financially, and a group of people whose "poorest" make well into six figures should NOT make waves. Again, this argument lacks nuance, but I get it. Everyone gets it. There is, however, a group of guys that everyone can feel for. They are the group that suffers the truest "irreparable harm" from the NFL lockout. They are the undrafted college free agents.

I was still in school at Northwestern when the San Francisco 49ers signed me as an undrafted free agent in 2004. I decided to stay in school and finish my degree instead of participating in the offseason program. I had NO IDEA what a disadvantage I placed myself at from a football standpoint.

I am admittedly not the most talented guy to ever come through the league, but my play was terrible during that first training camp. I couldn't understand why a guy as smart as I considered myself to be was struggling to understand the offense. Well, the other guys had spent a minimum of four months doing nothing but studying the playbook and repeating plays! My play on special teams was probably the worst part, which is ironic considering that's what ended up defining my seven-year career.

The 49ers cut me at the first opportunity. By God's grace, I landed on Atlanta's practice squad under Jim Mora and finally had a chance to catch up. That following offseason, I was able to rapidly improve through the Falcons’ offseason program. I was able to make the necessary gains in physical strength. I became supremely comfortable in the offense. And, probably most importantly, I gained the foundations of being a good special-teams player. I performed very well that next preseason, but still fell prey to the numbers game. The difference was that I had a fair shot that time. And in the long run, I landed in Cleveland with the ability to actually compete at the NFL level and enjoyed four great years with the Browns.

None of it would have been possible without my full participation in an offseason program during my second year. Staying away that first offseason nearly cost me my career (although I’d risk it again to secure my degree). The lockout threatens to put the current undrafted free agents at risk.

Undrafted college free agents are some of the best NFL success stories because they are also the most unlikely. Josh Cribbs, Cleveland’s superstar utility man, started off as a rookie tryout for the Browns. Tony Romo went from "cap-and-clipboard" unknown to the face of the NFL’s most popular franchise. And the Steelers’ James Harrison was cut numerous times before becoming the Defensive MVP.

There are too many others to mention. We love these stories because we can relate. At one point or another, almost all of us have felt forgotten or insignificant. These stories tell us that our small beginnings are not the final word. They say that a combination of hard work, opportunity and providence can improve our standing. They are odds-defying, feel-good narratives that make us feel like there might really be something redeeming in watching hours of sports.

The lockout has lengthened the odds against this newest crop of undrafted free agents. The lack of an organized offseason makes the road toughest for all rookies, in fact. All but the very best will be hard-pressed to make a mark in their first season. For many it will be difficult to even make the team. They won’t get the valuable repetitions of minicamps and organized team activities. They’ll miss valuable classroom time with the coaching staffs. Linemen won’t have time to adjust to the significant speed difference of the NFL line of scrimmage. Skill players will only have a few days to become great on special teams in order to secure jobs.

The drafted guys, at least, know what team they will be on and have had a chance to see what’s in that team’s playbook. The undrafted guys will likely see the playbook only moments before having to physically compete with the best players in the world! The steep hike these guys take to NFL success has become a vertical climb.

So, let’s remember that these guys are innocent victims of this litigious offseason, along with the fans. Let’s also keep our eyes on this year’s crop of college free agents because those that make it may have the best stories yet. The seemingly insurmountable odds stacked against them may very well produce an inspiring story to rival Kurt Warner’s rise from the grocery store to the Super Bowl. I certainly hope they do. We all need the encouragement that no obstacle is too great to alter a destiny. And as life inevitably throws crappy circumstances our way, it’s great to be reminded that the guy who starts out with nothing can sometimes end up with everything.

Justin SmithAP Photo/Paul SakumThe 49ers' Justin Smith has collected 8.5 of his 21.5 sacks after the third quarter since 2008.

The try-hard guy, long revered by NFL fans for overcoming physical limitations with all-out effort, has not been universally loved.

Established veterans with a feel for how to practice during long, demanding regular seasons can become resentful when the try-hard guy's misplaced fury produces unwanted collisions.

So, for the sake of clarity, the try-hard guy is excused from this conversation about pass-rushers so relentless, they wear down opponents over the course of a game.

We're talking about players with enough talent to command significant playing time, many as high draft choices or big-ticket free agents. We're talking about the San Francisco 49ers' Justin Smith, one of two NFC West players to receive votes in ESPN.com's Power Rankings for defensive players. Patrick Willis was the other.

"Justin Smith is a relentless player who wears down opponents by coming after them each and every play," BigBrad184 wrote in response to this item Wednesday morning. "I don't have any stats to back this up, but it seems like he often gets many of his sacks in the fourth quarter because of the fatigue he causes to offensive lineman."

Interesting thought.

"Maybe breaking out Smith's sacks by quarter over the past few years is a project for Sando," BigBrad184 concluded.

Done deal. John Fisher of ESPN Stats & Information responded to my request for the statistical evidence BigBrad184 was seeking. Smith does rank among the NFL leaders for fourth-quarter sacks in recent seasons, but two other NFC West players, including one of Smith's teammates, rank higher on the list.

More on the results in a bit. First, a look at the methodology.

Fisher provided a file with quarter-by-quarter sack totals for every player since 2001. I filtered the information to consider:
  • The last three seasons. There was no sense comparing totals for eight-year veterans against players entering the league more recently. At the same time, three seasons was long enough to pile up adequate numbers.
  • Players with at least 10 sacks. This reduced qualifying players from 668 to 99, a more manageable number featuring more "name" players.
  • Late-game production. I then divided the remaining 99 players' fourth-quarter and overtime sack totals by their total sacks, producing percentages that might tell us which players tend to wear down opponents.

The 49ers' Smith collected 8.5 of his 21.5 sacks in fourth quarters or overtimes since 2008. That worked out to 39.5 percent, which ranked 22nd among the 99 qualifying players.

Philadelphia's Darren Howard, who did not play in 2010, led the way with 75.8 percent of his sacks (11.5 of 16.5) after the third quarter. He was on the Eagles' roster for two of the three seasons in question and never played even half the defensive snaps in either year. But he was highly effective as a situational player, at least when measured by sack totals. Only Jared Allen (15) and Joey Porter (14) had more total sacks after the first three quarters.

There was no way to tell whether players with higher late-game sack percentages had more or better late-game opportunities for reasons unrelated to being relentless. Players operating within superior schemes or alongside better teammates certainly benefited. Overall, players collected more sacks in second and fourth quarters, no surprise given that teams attempted 6,130 additional passes during those quarters over the past three seasons, a likely reflection of two-minute situations.

The San Francisco 49ers' Parys Haralson (52.9 percent) and the St. Louis Rams' Chris Long (48.6 percent) ranked highest in fourth-quarter sack percentage among current NFC West players with at least 10 sacks over the past three seasons. Haralson was seventh in the league. Long was ninth. Former 49er Tully Banta-Cain was 10th (48.4 percent), while Arizona's Joey Porter (44.4 percent), St. Louis' Fred Robbins (44.4 percent), ex-Seahawk Lawrence Jackson (44.0 percent) and current Seahawk Chris Clemons (41.0 percent) ranked among the top 20.

Were these guys merely slow starters? Were they strong finishers? Did they wear down opponents over the course of games? The numbers do not answer those questions definitively, but they provide a starting point for discussion.

I was also interested in seeing which players collected a disproportionate number of sacks earlier in games. They were, at best, tone setters. At worst, they failed to finish or failed to adequately wear down opponents. The previous disclaimers applied to them as well.

As the chart below shows, three of the 10 qualifying players with the lowest percentages of late-game sacks have NFC West roots.

Arizona's Calais Campbell has 5.5 of his 13 sacks in first quarters, but only one in fourth quarters or overtimes. The 49ers' Manny Lawson collected 11 of his 12 sacks in the first three quarters. Darryl Tapp, traded from Seattle to Philadelphia in the deal for Clemons, has 4.5 sacks in each of the first two quarters, but only two in second halves (one after the third quarter).

A few other observations with an eye toward the NFC West:
  • Porter (six) and Campbell (5.5) rank among the top seven in most first-quarter sacks. The 49ers' Smith is right behind with five.
  • Arizona's Darnell Dockett has nine of his 16 sacks in second quarters. Eight players have more second-quarter sacks over the past three seasons, but all are edge-rusher types. Dockett plays end in a 3-4 scheme.
  • Pittsburgh's James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley are a third-quarter nightmare for opposing quarterbacks. Harrison leads the NFL with 15.5 sacks in third quarters. Woodley is second with 12. Former Cardinal Calvin Pace ranks in the top 10 with 7.5.
  • Porter and Allen are tied for the most fourth-quarter sacks in the NFL over the past three seasons. Each has 14 (Allen also had one in overtime). DeMarcus Ware and Robert Mathis are next with 13.5, followed by Dwight Freeney and Julius Peppers with 12.5.

Back to the original question: Is the 49ers' Smith a relentless player who wears down opponents, producing fourth-quarter payoffs?

He might be, but he produces well enough across all quarters to transcend the try-hard label and probably even the relentless label as well. He's a beast.
The Arizona Cardinals aren't chasing quarterbacks in the 2011 NFL draft.

They selected someone Saturday to do that for them on the field.

Sam Acho, a defensive end/outside linebacker from Texas, comes to the Cardinals as the 103rd player overall choice. Analysts have lauded Acho as a high-effort, high-character prospect lacking some of the desired measurables, including height.

But with Ray Horton coming from Pittsburgh as the Cardinals' new defensive coordinator, it's worth pointing out that stature hasn't prevented others -- think James Harrison, who stands 6 feet tall -- from exceeding expectations.

I'm not comparing Acho to Harrison. Let's see what the Cardinals say about him first. But at not quite 6-1 and 262 pounds, Acho presumably projects as an outside linebacker in Arizona's 3-4 scheme. Acho had nine sacks and five forced fumbles last season. He has 19 sacks over his final two seasons in college.
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