ESPN NFL

Filippo from Windsor, Canada, thinks Alex Smith, not Kyle Williams, was the 49ers' biggest problem in the NFC Championship Game. He wondered whether the team could trade for Peyton Manning this offseason.

Mike Sando: There will almost certainly be no trade for Manning. The Colts could not trade Manning without first paying a $28 million bonus to him. Failing to pay that bonus by March 8 would make Manning a free agent when the trading period opened five days later.

My early take on Manning was that the Colts would keep him as long as he were healthy. Sweeping changes in the organization have created the impression Indianapolis anticipates making a clean break at the position. Indianapolis appears increasingly likely to part with Manning unless the sides adjust that bonus to buy time. Manning will not want to do that, most likely, if he knows the Colts are going to draft his replacement, Andrew Luck.

This has become a perfect storm. Manning's injury was worse than anticipated. He missed the entire season, longer than expected. The Colts were worse than anticipated without him, so bad they secured the top pick. Manning's health did not improve as anticipated. One of the brightest college quarterback prospects in years happened to be available in the next draft. And then Manning had that $28 million lever in his contract.

Those are all extreme circumstances. Throw them together and it's tough to envision the Colts keeping Manning. That $28 million price tag is too high amid questions about Manning's health.

We're in a holding pattern until the March 8 bonus date. Perceptions could change by then. If Manning does become a free agent, his health will remain the key variable. It's too early to know where he might land.

I suspect the 49ers will re-sign Alex Smith before or around the March 13 start to free agency. Arizona has until March 17 to pay a $7 million bonus to keep Kevin Kolb. The gap could give the Cardinals a chance to at least consider Manning. Lots of other teams would have interest as well.

Manning's recent comments to Bob Kravitz were illuminating. Manning said he felt as though sweeping changes in the Colts' organization had left people there "walking on eggshells." But Manning is the one with reason to feel that way. He's no longer in control of his immediate future.

---

Dan from Portland asks why few people seem to be connecting Manning to the Seattle Seahawks. He thinks Kolb should get another chance in Arizona. He thinks Alex Smith should be the starter in San Francisco. And he sees Sam Bradford as the quarterback in St. Louis. Doesn't that leave Seattle as the most logical destination among NFC West teams?

Mike Sando: Yeah, I've wondered why Arizona has been mentioned in so many of the reports. It is possible people close to Manning are pushing Arizona as a possible destination because, one, Manning might see that as an appealing place to land and, two, the Cardinals do have that $7 million decision to make on Kolb. I see no reason for the Cardinals to push the Manning angle in the news, unless they hope to pressure Kolb into an adjusted contract.

I agree with you on Seattle making the most sense from a quarterback-need perspective. The fit from a system standpoint would take some adjusting. I also wonder how much the Seahawks would want to commit financially to such a high-profile player with clear health concerns. Would they see this as a risky two-year rental, or as a chance to become a championship contender quickly?

Manning's health is the No. 1 variable. If he hits the market in good physical condition, lots of teams will be interested.

---

Jeremiah from Germany thinks 49ers fans should be clamoring for Dwayne Bowe, not Marques Colston, in free agency this offseason.

Mike Sando: It's tough for me to envision the Chiefs letting Bowe get away. Smart teams re-sign their best players, especially when those players are young. I would also favor Bowe over Colston, all else being equal. But I also think the 49ers would be more likely to address the position in the draft and with a lower-priced free agent. That is how they believe in putting their team together. They have been averse to overpaying for players other teams have let hit the market. That was the case last offseason when the 49ers showed no interest in Nnamdi Asomugha and other top free agents.

---

Scott from Epsom, N.H., thinks I've failed to pay the New York Giants their proper respects and have instead sought to diminish their victory by branding them as concussion-inflicting cheaters. "Grow up," he writes. "It's a game."

Mike Sando: The stories about the Giants trying to inflict a concussion upon Kyle Williams originated in the Newark Star-Ledger and New York Magazine. I simply linked to them, which was pretty much a no-brainer from an NFC West perspective. These were direct quotes from Giants players speaking on the record in well-established publications.

On the game itself, the 49ers blew a prime opportunity to reach the Super Bowl, giving up 10 points on uncharacteristic special-teams turnovers. That was my focus from a 49ers/NFC West standpoint coming out of the game. There's no shortage of favorable Giants coverage out there. I just thought the 49ers did more to lose the game than their opponent did to win it. This being the NFC West blog, the 49ers were going to be my focus.

---

Adam from El Paso noticed that the last quarterbacks drafted in first rounds tend to struggle. He pointed to Patrick Ramsey (2002), Rex Grossman (2003), J.P. Losman (2004), Jason Campbell (2005), Jay Cutler (2006) and Brady Quinn (2007) as examples. He pointed to Joe Flacco (2008) and possibly Cutler as exceptions, but wondered if there was something to it.

Mike Sando: Interesting observation. There is nothing dooming these players. Overall, though, the quarterbacks with the most obvious skills tend to get drafted earlier. If you've reached the late first round and are thinking about a quarterback, you're probably gambling more than teams selecting them earlier. Perhaps you're more apt to be reaching for a prospect because you need one and fear missing out.

---

Joe from Phoenix sees Jeff Fisher delivering credible coordinators and asks whether we should expect him to land top free agents as well. He points to Cortland Finnegan as a possibility and wants to know if there are others with ties to Fisher or the current Rams coordinators.

Mike Sando: Yes, we should expect the Rams to have interest in free-agent players Fisher and his coordinators coached in the past. Finnegan is one of them.

Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer spent the last six seasons with New York, but the Jets do not have many potential offensive free agents of note. The list includes quarterback Mark Brunell, receiver Plaxico Burress, tight end Matthew Mulligan, quarterback Kevin O'Connell, running back LaDainian Tomlinson and tackle Robert Turner.

Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams spent the last three seasons with New Orleans.

The Saints' potential defensive free agents include linebacker Jonathan Casillas, defensive end Jeff Charleston, linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar, nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin, linebacker Ramon Humber, defensive end Turk McBride, cornerback Tracy Porter, defensive tackle Shaun Rogers and cornerback Leigh Torrance.

Williams was also with 49ers cornerback Carlos Rogers, another potential free agent, years ago in Washington.

Fisher's roots as head coach in Tennessee provide additional connections. The Titans' potential free agents include snapper Ken Amato, safety Jordan Babineaux, linebacker Patrick Bailey, defensive end Dave Ball, Finnegan, safety Michael Griffin, running back Ahmard Hall, receiver Lavelle Hawkins, defensive end William Hayes, safety Chris Hope, defensive end/tackle Jason Jones, tackle Mike Otto, guard Jake Scott, linebacker Tim Shaw and safety Anthony Smith.

One quarterback from the 2005 NFL draft class remains in the playoffs this season.

See if you can find him in the chart. A hint: Alex Smith is his name.

The best NFL quarterbacks are good against standard and added pressure alike.

Aaron Rodgers comes to mind. The Green Bay Packers' quarterback leads the NFL in Total QBR when opponents send four or fewer pass-rushers, and also when they send five or more, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Alex Smith's stronger production against five or more pass-rushers has stood out all season.

• Smith vs. four or fewer rushers: six touchdowns, four interceptions and 16 sacks in 222 dropbacks, with a 47.7 QBR (50 is average) and an 84.7 NFL passer rating.
• Smith vs. five or more: seven touchdowns, one interception and 14 sacks in 106 dropbacks, with a 57.2 QBR and 105.9 NFL rating.

Multiple factors can produce such a disparity. A quick-thinking quarterback armed with a strong game plan and a solid protection scheme can have an advantage against added pressure. Quarterbacks working behind weaker offensive lines could suffer against standard pressure if opponents got to them without sacrificing coverage. Having additional players in coverage affords defenses with additional combinations in coverage, another consideration.

The chart immediately below ranks quarterbacks by the largest QBR disparity when facing five or more pass-rushers vs. four or fewer. Smith and Arizona's Kevin Kolb are among 11 quarterbacks with higher QBR scores against five or more rushers. They have done better against pressure, in theory. Ranking higher on the list isn't necessarily desirable; like Rodgers, a top quarterback should produce in both areas.

Fifty is an average score, with 100 as the limit.

QBR differential is an imperfect measure because point differentials nearer the margins (zero and 100) carry more significance than they do nearer the middle of the range. But the disparities are still helpful in showing how quarterbacks perform, in general, across these situations.

Rex Grossman, who heads the first chart, completed 9 of 12 passes for 117 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions and one sack when the Seahawks sent five or more rushers against him Sunday. He completed 17 of 23 passes for 197 yards with one touchdown, two interceptions and no sacks against standard pressure.

The final chart shows the 22 qualifying quarterbacks with better QBR numbers when facing four or fewer pass-rushers, again ranked by percentage difference.

Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson and St. Louis' Sam Bradford show up on this list. There is Rodgers, down at the bottom, nearly equally strong in each situation.

Grading Alex Smith's play during the San Francisco 49ers' 6-1 start has become one of the more fascinating pursuits of this 2011 NFC West season.

Smith, long a divisive subject among 49ers fans, remains one even during the team's best start since 1998.

It's easy to see why.

Smith ranks among the top 10 quarterbacks in NFL passer rating. He has led three fourth-quarter comeback victories, all on the road. Yet he ranks only 18th in yards per attempt and 24th in yards per game. And despite occasionally setting a high standard for Total QBR, Smith ranks only 24th in the ESPN statistic measuring how quarterbacks impact their teams' chances for winning.

We've had almost as much fun debating the merits of QBR as we've had debating all things Smith, but any quarterback stat ranking Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees above all others, with Tim Tebow dead last, must be onto something.

Let's set aside the stats for a moment. Fourth-quarter comeback victories have long served as the measure of a quarterback's mettle. Pro Football Reference has done outstanding work in defining and validating them. From their work, we're able to see all fourth-quarter comeback victories for the 49ers since 1960. We can also generate a list for all NFL quarterbacks this season -- a list showing Smith atop the NFL with three, all on the road.

The chart breaks down 2011 fourth-quarter comeback victories by quarterback and venue. Smith and the New York Giants lead the league with three. Smith is the only one with three on the road. A quick look at them:

• At Cincinnati, Week 3: With the 49ers trailing 6-3 in the fourth quarter, Smith completes 4 of 8 passes for 48 yards during a 10-play, 72-yard touchdown drive. The 49ers win the game, 13-8.
• At Philadelphia, Week 4: The 49ers won this one in the fourth quarter on the strength of their running game and defense. Smith completed 9 of 9 passes for 179 yards and two touchdowns in the third quarter, when the 49ers erased most of a 20-point deficit. He completed 4 of 8 passes for 22 yards, no first downs and a sack in the final 15 minutes.
• At Detroit, Week 6: Smith and the passing game struggled most of the way, but with the game on the line, Smith found Delanie Walker for the go-ahead touchdown on a fourth-down play with 1:56 remaining.

Now, on to the chart ...

The Cincinnati Bengals said they would not trade quarterback Carson Palmer, but just about anything can happen if the price is right.

For the Bengals, the price was apparently a 2012 first-round draft choice, plus a first- or second-rounder the following year, depending on whether the Raiders win a playoff game.

The price made sense from the Raiders' perspective after Jason Campbell's season-ending injury threatened to derail their season following a 4-2 start.

As for the Seattle Seahawks? They arguably could have used a proven veteran passer as well, but they were wise to hold onto future first-round picks, in my view.

"It makes more sense for the Raiders than for Seattle," Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. said. "Seattle is not winning the Super Bowl with or without him this year. Seattle needs to add Matt Barkely or another young puppy with the first-round pick. Palmer is not that guy who they fill in and they are set."

The Seahawks have put together one of the youngest rosters in the league. They have bucked conventional wisdom by drafting no quarterbacks since Pete Carroll took over the team in early 2010. Clearly, the Seahawks need to draft a bright quarterback prospect at some point, the sooner the better.

With the San Francisco 49ers starting 5-1, the 2-3 Seahawks will have a harder time replicating their improbable 2010 run to a division title. Wedging Palmer into an offense that values quarterback mobility would have proved disruptive in the short term while mortgaging the team's chances for drafting a quarterback in the future.

Winning the division at 7-9 and surprising New Orleans in the playoffs last season created enduring memories, but the result was picking 25th overall instead of eighth, complicating efforts to draft a quarterback. The Seahawks appear better positioned to land an earlier pick this season because the 49ers appear likely to raise the NFC West bar from 7-9 for any team hoping to qualify for the playoffs.

Carroll's history with Palmer would have carried some appeal, however. The two were together at USC. Both are West Coast guys. They would have worked well together. But their days together at USC were a long time ago.

"When I was with the Browns, the first game I was ever part of in the NFL was against the Bengals," Williamson said. "I remember standing on the field watching him warm up and my jaw hit the ground. He was throwing 60-yard strikes casually while talking to the quarterbacks coach. That is what first pick should look like. Haven’t really seen it since."

Palmer could have made more sense for Seattle at a lower price. The team would prefer to see what it has in Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst and even third-stringer Josh Portis than to part with first-round picks for a player whose best years might be in the past.

"The real encouraging thing on Palmer is that he played one or two games last year where Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens were both out, and he looked like a different guy throwing to Jerome Simpson, Andre Caldwell and Jermaine Gresham," Williamson said. "There was a knucklehead factor with Ochocinco and T.O. running wrong routes all the time. But I still think it's a huge risk for somebody who is injury prone, rusty, immobile and hasn't been productive for a while."

Carson Palmer is heading to Oakland for a 2012 first-round pick and a 2013 choice in the first or second round, depending on whether the Raiders win a playoff game.

I can see why the Raiders acted boldly after Jason Campbell's season-ending injury threatened to ruin their 4-2 start. Palmer is probably at least as good as Campbell at this point. Best-case scenario, he's the Raiders' next Jim Plunkett -- an older, immobile quarterback with a big arm and the savvy to win. But he also might be a declining player unlikely to put the Raiders or any team over the top.

Given how much the Raiders are giving up for a 31-year-old passer with a questionable future, the price Arizona paid for Kevin Kolb, 27, appears more agreeable.

"I think the Raiders vastly overspent," Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. said when I spoke with him Tuesday. "Palmer hasn't been good for three years. A change of scenery could help, but a first-round pick for him? I wouldn't give up a second or maybe even a third."

The Cardinals gave up a 2012 second-round pick and cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie for Kolb, who then signed a five-year contract worth $63 million. The price Arizona paid on the contract far outweighs what the team gave to Philadelphia in completing the deal, in my view. As Williamson has said more than once, Rodgers-Cromartie played poorly last season, did not fit the team's new defensive scheme and hasn't done much for the Eagles, either.

"This deal for Palmer makes the Kolb deal look better," Williamson said. "Quarterbacks are just expensive. You are not going to get a starting-caliber QB for a fifth-round pick. They are pricey and if you are going to start them, a second-round pick is not bad. Aaron Rodgers was not available. What else were they going to do, play with the same quarterbacks from last season again?"

Three things to watch for in the San Francisco 49ers' preseason game against the Oakland Raiders on Saturday night at 8 p.m. ET:

1. Progress on offense. I was among those cutting the 49ers some slack offensively following their rough outing against New Orleans in the preseason opener. They were one week into practicing with newly signed players, including quarterback Alex Smith. The Saints threw quite a few blitzes at them to make life more difficult, especially for an offense so reliant upon timing. It's reasonable to expect at least some progress against the Raiders. The 49ers should have quick passes built into their offense to beat pressure. Smith hasn't been the most accurate passer over the years, though. I'll be watching to see how accurately he delivers some of the quick-slant throws that will be a staple of the offense under coach Jim Harbaugh. Let's also watch to see whether Smith can get the ball to Braylon Edwards downfield.

2. More Aldon Smith. The 49ers' rookie outside linebacker was the most impressive NFC West first-round draft choice during preseason openers. That won't necessarily mean much for the long term, but those casting Smith as a developmental player have seen preliminary indications Smith will provide immediate contributions as well. The Raiders gave up only two sacks in their opener against Arizona, none on starting quarterback Jason Campbell. Smith had five tackles, one sack and a forced fumble against the Saints, a good start.

3. Right guard Chilo Rachal. I know, I know. Few things in life generate as much excitement and fulfillment as watching an offensive guard slog through a preseason game. But with Harbaugh recently singling out Rachal as one of the players enjoying a strong camp, I wondered to what degree there was a self-fulfilling element to the coach's comments. There is some evidence Rachal has made progress. He reported to camp about 20-25 pounds lighter than his playing weight last season, significant given the lack of player oversight during the lockout. I was among those last season who thought the 49ers would have benefited from a more experienced, steadier player lined up next to rookie right tackle Anthony Davis. Can Rachal help stabilize his side of the line?

The late Don Smith never claimed his passer-rating formula was perfect.

Quite the opposite, in fact.

"Some people call it a quarterback rating system, but that really is not what it is," Smith told me during a 2002 interview. "It’s simply a passing statistic."

I've actually defended Smith's rating system because the quarterbacks with the highest ratings -- Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers led the way last season -- usually are the best quarterbacks. But there's so much more to quarterbacking than passing stats for touchdowns, interceptions, attempts, completions and yardage.

Game situations should count for something, and now they do.

With input from football people, including ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer, our statistical analysts have developed a 100-point ratings scale for quarterbacks taking into account advanced stats, game situations and relevant non-passing stats, including fumbles and sacks, to evaluate quarterbacks far more thoroughly. The methodology is complex -- one of the formula's key algorithms spans some 10,000 lines -- but the resulting "Total Quarterback Rating" (QBR for short) beats the old passer rating in every conceivable fashion. The ratings scale will debut this season.

I've been bugging the Stats & Information team for a sneak peak ever since learning former NBA statistical analyst Dean Oliver had joined our production analytics unit and was playing a prominent role in QBR development. Oliver, a Caltech grad with a Ph.D. in statistical applications, revolutionized how NBA teams use advanced statistics. Menlo College professor Ben Alamar, who has consulted with the San Francisco 49ers, is also part of the team.

Our stats team has been using game video to track stats relating to pressure, personnel, formation, game situation and more since 2008. The QBR stat represents a significant leap in harnessing those statistics for something more.

The old formula Smith created treated stats the same regardless of circumstance. A touchdown pass thrown against a prevent defense during a blowout defeat equals one thrown against pressure to win the game. A 5-yard completion on third-and-4 counts the same as a 5-yarder on third-and-15. A critical quarterback scramble, sack or fumble doesn't even factor.

"There is no way to statistically say how effective a guy is under fire," Smith lamented during our 2002 conversation. "None of that can be put into something like this."

Now it can, along with a whole lot more.

The QBR formula takes into account down, distance, field position, time remaining, rushing, passing sacks, fumbles, interceptions, how far each pass travels in the air, from where on the field the ball was thrown, yards after the catch, dropped balls, defensed balls, whether the quarterback was hit, whether he threw away the ball to avoid a sack, whether the pass was thrown accurately, etc. Each play carries "clutch weight" based on its importance to game outcome, as determined by analyzing those 60,000 plays since 2008. The stats adjust for quarterbacks facing an unusually high number of these situations.

"If it is a running clock late in the game, maybe you only get a few yards here or there, that is the right football play to make," Jeff Bennett, senior director of ESPN's production analytics team, said Sunday. "We spent a month learning about ratings to make sure quarterbacks couldn’t game the system, so they're not afraid to throw that deep pass at the end of the first half and risk an interception."

I've seen an outline for the rating system breaking down 2010 quarterbacks into six general categories, from top tier to poor. Precise rating numbers were not yet available. The quarterbacks under consideration broke down as follows:

• Top tier: Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, Rodgers and Drew Brees.
• Well above average: Josh Freeman, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers.
• Above average: Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, David Garrard and Kerry Collins.
• Around average: Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton and Jon Kitna.
• Below average: Shaun Hill, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith.
• Poor: Derek Anderson, Brett Favre and Jimmy Clausen.

ESPN plans to enlist several quarterbacks when introducing the stat during an hour-long "SportsCenter" special Friday at 8 p.m. ET. We'll be referencing the stat on the blogs and elsewhere. Bennett said he's allocating enough manpower to produce ratings on game days, a huge help for those of us analyzing player performances shortly after games.

"We want to reward a good football play," Bennett said.

Jesse Reynolds, an Arizona Cardinals fan deadlocked in a debate over quarterbacks, turned this way for a resolution.

"I have searched everywhere but haven't been able to find the data that supports (or contradicts) my argument that the Cardinals were one of the most-blitzed teams last year because no one feared our quarterbacks," Jesse wrote to me via Facebook. "Could you help find the numbers? I'm sure other NFC West teams' fans would love to know their numbers, too."

Blitz numbers usually tell us which defenses were more aggressive. But if we flipped our perspective, as Jesse suggested, we could find out which quarterbacks commanded the most respect, at least by this measure. Where to turn? Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Information put me in touch with colleague Jason Starrett, who came through with numbers for all 32 teams and for 40 individual quarterbacks.

Thanks to Jason, Jesse is going to win his argument by a knockout.

Opponents blitzed the Cardnials 37.2 percent of the time overall, the sixth-highest percentage in the league. Oakland (39.8), St. Louis (39.4), Chicago (38.4), Carolina (37.5) and Baltimore (37.5) faced blitzes more frequently.

We defined blitzes as plays when defenses rushed five or more defenders.

As the first chart shows, Max Hall, John Skelton, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford -- all rookies playing for losing teams season -- faced blitzes most frequently.

As the second chart shows, five highly experienced quarterbacks -- Peyton Manning, Jake Delhomme, Drew Brees, Matt Hasselbeck and Tom Brady -- faced blitzes least frequently.

Hall and Skelton combined to start seven games for Arizona. Teammate Derek Anderson ranked 17th among the 40 players listed in terms of being blitzed most frequently.

In looking at the charts, a few names showed up in surprising places.

The San Francisco 49ers' Smith ranked higher than expected on the list of quarterbacks facing blitzes less frequently. Was he really "commanding respect" the way Brady commanded respect? Of course not. Does he really qualify as a wily veteran such as Delhomme or Hasselbeck? The answer is "no" on that front as well.

Likewise, quarterbacks such as Hill and Henne wouldn't provide a strong deterrent to blitzing, would they? Why would Green Bay's Rodgers face blitzes more frequently than them?

Other variables come into play. Some teams blitz more frequently than others regardless of opponent. A quarterback facing these teams more frequently would see his numbers shift accordingly.

How well an offensive line picks up blitzes could influence how a defense attacks. How well receivers adjust to blitzes could matter, as could the confidence a defensive coordinator has in his secondary during a given week. A quarterback's running ability and ability to read defenses accurately could factor.

Overall, I'd say it's telling to see the Cardinals' Hall and Skelton blitzed so frequently, particularly relative to the numbers for the more experienced Anderson. It's also telling to see some highly experienced quarterbacks blitzed so infrequently by comparison.

The St. Louis Rams made tremendous statistical gains on defense last season. Kerry Byrne breaks down some of the differences from 2009 to 2010 in his recent piece for SI.com.

Are coach Steve Spagnuolo and the Rams headed for even better things on defense in 2011 after using their first-round pick for defensive end Robert Quinn?

"The Quinn pick told the football world that Spagnuolo intends to win in St. Louis much the way he won in New York -- with a dominating group of Defensive Hogs," Byrne writes. "The unit he'll put on the field in 2011 has the potential to be the very best in the league."

Michael from St. Louis pointed out Byrne's piece to me via Facebook and questioned whether the Rams' defense would actually join the NFL's elite this season. I think Byrne is on the right track. Spagnuolo does have the Rams' defense headed in the right direction.

I do see question marks, however. James Hall and Fred Robbins enjoyed unusually strong seasons for their ages. Can the Rams bank on more of the same? The defense also lost safety Oshiomogho Atogwe to the Washington Redskins in free agency.

Opposing personnel matters, too. Some of the statistical gains St. Louis made from 2009 to 2010 reflected which quarterbacks the team faced.

The chart ranks the Rams' opposing quarterbacks by their passer ratings against St. Louis in the 2009 and 2010 seasons. The team's 2010 performances against Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Josh Freeman and Matt Cassel stand out as notable, although the Rams were 1-3 against those quarterbacks.

The Rams benefited in 2010 by removing Kurt Warner (twice), Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub, Brett Favre (2009 version) and even Vince Young (2009 version) from their schedule. They face Rodgers, Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Michael Vick, Eli Manning, Tony Romo and Joe Flacco this coming season.

The first round of the 2011 NFL draft was notable in the NFC West for the players teams did not select -- quarterbacks available when Arizona and San Francisco selected.

The second round presents a second chance for the Cardinals, 49ers and Seattle Seahawks to address their quarterback situations. I would single out the 49ers as most likely among the three to pursue a quarterback at this stage, based on the lack of a developmental prospect at the position.

It's also conceivable no NFC West team will value the remaining quarterbacks enough to use a second-round choice for one. Andy Dalton, Ryan Mallett, Colin Kaepernick, Ricky Stanzi and Tyrod Taylor are generally ranked among the top remaining quarterbacks; all but Stanzi and Taylor were projected as first- or second-round selections when Scouts Inc. put together a seven-round mock draft.

The seven-round mock sent Locker to Arizona at No. 38, 30 spots after the Tennessee Titans selected him. It had Blaine Gabbert going to San Francisco at No. 7, three spots before Jacksonville selected him. Stanzi was a fourth-round projection to Seattle.

The 49ers hold the 13th choice of the second round. Here's a thought: What if the Oakland Raiders jumped past the 49ers to snag a successor to Jason Campbell, who is entering the final year of his contract? The chart lists every second-round pick, with thoughts on quarterback situations for each team.

Colleague Kevin Seifert showed some daring by sending TCU quarterback Andy Dalton to the Minnesota Vikings at No. 12 in a recent ESPN.com mock draft.

He wasn't arguing for Dalton's value so much as saying the Vikings' need for a quarterback might compel them to take one there.

"To me," Seifert later wrote with first-year Vikings coach Leslie Frazier in mind, "there is no better time to jump to the other side than in a coach's first year, giving him a building block for the rest of his program."

The key, of course, is not mistaking anchors for building blocks.

Steve Mariucci was the San Francisco 49ers' first-year coach when the team used a 1997 first-rounder for Jim Druckenmiller, a blunder softened only by Steve Young's presence on the roster. That experience should not directly influence the 49ers' thinking as they consider first-round quarterbacks for new coach Jim Harbaugh, but it's a reference point.

With Harbaugh and the 49ers in mind, I went through recent drafts to see which teams with first-year head coaches used first-round selections for quarterbacks. More precisely, I looked at all first-round quarterbacks since 2000 to see which ones had first-year head coaches.

Six of the last eight first-round quarterbacks -- Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and JaMarcus Russell -- joined teams with first-year head coaches. All but Russell remain franchise quarterbacks in their teams' eyes. All but Russell are still playing for their original head coaches. Four of the six had winning records in 2010.

For most of those franchises, value and need lined up pretty well, and first-year coaches benefited.

"If you don't have a quarterback, you're drafting maybe a different kind of running back, maybe a different kind of offensive lineman, than if you have somebody," Lions coach Jim Schwartz told reporters at the scouting combine. "We had Calvin Johnson, but our ability to get Jahvid Best, Nate Burleson in free agency, to draft Brandon Pettigrew -- those pieces were because of the quarterback that we have."

We could also argue that the St. Louis Rams were better off building their offensive line and other areas of their roster before making Sam Bradford the first overall choice in 2010. They could have drafted Sanchez or Freeman instead of defensive end Chris Long in 2009, then spent subsequent selections on players to build around one of those quarterbacks.

Bradford and Denver's Tim Tebow were the "other" first-round quarterbacks in the eight-man group featuring Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman, Ryan, Flacco and Russell.

In general, getting the right quarterback for a first-year head coach puts a franchise in strong position for the long term. There's no sense forcing the issue, however, because the wrong quarterback can drag down any coach, regardless of tenure.

A coach such as the Vikings' Frazier might have a harder time waiting. His contract runs only three seasons and ownership expects quick results. Harbaugh has a five-year deal with the 49ers. Expectations are high, but there's less urgency for immediate results.

The first chart shows the 14 first-round quarterbacks since 2000 that landed with returning head coaches.

The second chart shows the 14 first-round quarterbacks since 2000 that landed with first-year head coaches.

Baron from Sacramento wonders whether the San Francisco 49ers would really pass on quarterback Blaine Gabbert at No. 7 if he were available. Baron would rather see the team select Jimmy Smith or Jake Locker after trading down than see them select receiver Julio Jones or the second-best cornerback.

Mike Sando: Trent Baalke, the 49ers' general manager, asks himself a question every time he considers paying a high price for a quarterback. That question is, "Can we win a championship with this guy?" I suspect the 49ers would see enough potential in Gabbert to select him, particularly when lining up the value with their obvious need at the position.

I'll pass along the thoughts Baalke shared on the top quarterbacks in this draft during a news conference Wednesday:

• On Cam Newton: "From a spread offense, has a lot of physical talent. He has arm strength, he has athleticism, he has Ben Roethlisberger-type stature in the pocket. He is a piece of clay that needs to be molded. The mental part of the game, because of the system he is in, No. 1, and the fact that he hasn't played at that level for a long time, that is going to be a work in progress. He should get it."
[+] Enlarge
Mark J. Rebilas/US PresswireThe 49ers might have a hard time passing on Blaine Gabbert, 11, if he's available when they select in the first round.
• On Gabbert: "He comes from a spread-style system as well. Has rare passing talent. Very good arm strength, accuracy, but he has been in a spread system and he is coming out early. He is another junior that has decided to come out early."
• On Locker: "More of a pro-style quarterback in the system, but has functioned much better outside the pocket, running, scrambling throughout his career, making plays like that than he has from actually working inside the pocket. So there is going to be an adjustment for him to get comfortable in the pocket."
• On Ryan Mallett: "He might have the best arm talent in the draft. More of a pocket passer. He has admittedly said he isn't going to win any 40-yard dash or any relay race, but a pure pocket passer that probably mentally, along with Locker, has played in this system more closely related to the pro game."

Baalke wasn't going to tell us how the 49ers valued these quarterbacks, but reading between the lines, I could see the team valuing Gabbert based on that "rare passing talent" and the athleticism coach Jim Harbaugh likes in his quarterbacks. The book on Gabbert says he's smart, works hard and moves well. The 49ers value those traits in combination.

Conventional wisdom says Gabbert will not be available at No. 7. The truth is that we do not know how teams will value him.

---

Jeremy from Everett, Wash., wonders what the Seattle Seahawks could get in return for the 25th overall choice in the draft. Is there any way the team could get a 2012 first-round choice from a team that wanted to select a quarterback with Seattle's choice?

Mike Sando: Precedent says there's a chance. In 2005, the Washington Redskins acquired the 25th pick from Denver so they could select quarterback Jason Campbell. The Broncos received a 2005 third-rounder (76th overall), plus first- and fourth-round choices the following year.

I suspect Seattle would like to make a deal along those lines. The team has no third-rounder this year. Going without a first-rounder this year would hurt, but there could be ways around that as well. In 2006, the Pittsburgh Steelers sent the 32nd, 96th and 129th choices to the New York Giants for the 25th overall choice. That type of deal would definitely appeal to Seattle this year.

Last year, the draft was about glitz and excitement for Seattle. The team had a new head coach, plus two high first-round choices. This year, the draft is more likely about rolling up sleeves and acknowledging there's a lot of dirty work remaining before Seattle can become a legitimate contending team.

I see general manager John Schneider trying to amass more picks in an effort to rebuild with younger players.

---

Bill from Virginia Beach, Va., is on deployment for the Navy and seeking some information on his San Francisco 49ers. He thinks defensive coordinator Vic Fangio must be "licking his chops" over the defensive prospects the team might consider with the seventh overall choice. He wonders whether I would select LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson or Texas A&M linebacker Von Miller if given the choice.

Mike Sando: I would lean toward the pass-rusher when both are highly rated. Teams can cover for deficiencies in their secondary more easily than they can manufacture a pass rush. Plus, if you have the pass rush, the guys in the secondary will have an easier time.

---

Jesper from Denmark wonders what the St. Louis Rams would do with the 14th overall choice if Aldon Smith, Corey Liuget, Nick Fairley and the top two receivers unavailable. He sees Da'Quan Bowers as too much of a risk and sees two other defensive linemen, Cam Jordan and J.J. Watt, as better suited for 3-4 defenses.

Mike Sando: The scouting reports on Watt makes him sound like a welcome addition to any defensive front. I'd probably take him because he could play multiple positions while instantly upgrading the depth and versatility of the defensive front.

I'll have more thoughts on this Monday. It's something I've considered recently as part of a mock draft we're putting together.

---

Brent from Phoenix was shocked to see Peter King sending receiver A.J. Green to the Arizona Cardinals in a mock draft recently. He thinks such a move would provide great insurance for losing Larry Fitzgerald, but without a good quarterback, why would it matter? Brent wonders whether King is trying to be clever or if anyone else has considered such a possibility.

Mike Sando: Peter is not alone on this one. I had that thought in the back of my mind when answering questions about the Cardinals in a mailbag last month. A related question led off a chat session this month.

The Cardinals should select Green if he is clearly the best prospect available to them. Otherwise, they should consider addressing quarterback or upgrading their defensive front seven, specifically the pass-rush.

Selecting Green that early might push Fitzgerald out the door from a resources standpoint. Green would be commanding millions in guarantees. The team would have a hard time paying huge money to two wide receivers.

Anquan Boldin became expendable largely because the Cardinals paid so much for Fitzgerald. But if Green is clearly the best talent available and the Cardinals aren't all that optimistic about keeping Fitzgerald, anyway, selecting Green would make more sense.

I don't think that is the most likely scenario, but neither would I rule it out.

John Clayton's take on whether the Philadelphia Eagles should trade Kevin Kolb describes as "good" the chances of an NFC West team acquiring the quarterback.

"While it seems unlikely the Eagles can get a first-round pick in 2011 because the time is running out to get a CBA done before the draft, a first-round pick in 2012 still works," Clayton wrote.

For trading purposes, a first-round pick in 2012 would be worth less than a first-round choice in the current year. Teams interested in trading for Kolb could benefit if a lockout extended past the draft because the Eagles wouldn't be able to command a 2011 draft choice in return.

Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. previously said he would part with the 25th overall choice for Kolb if he were the Seattle Seahawks.

OK, but what about using that choice for a quarterback in the draft?

Teams selecting quarterbacks in that range have struggled to find good ones. Aaron Rodgers (24th in 2005) and Dan Marino (27th in 1983) stand out as exceptions. The last 10 quarterbacks selected in the 20s: Tim Tebow, Brady Quinn, Rodgers, Jason Campbell, J.P. Losman, Rex Grossman, Jim Druckenmiller, Tommy Maddox, Todd Marinovich and current San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh.

This is the final item in a series revisiting relatively recent NFL trades involving first-round draft choices in the slots NFC West teams occupy this year.

Beating the St. Louis Rams in Week 17 and the New Orleans Saints in the wild-card round cost Seattle 17 spots of draft order. The difference between the eighth and 25th picks -- 680 points on the draft-value chart -- equates to the 27th choice.

The Seahawks' late-season success and Matt Hasselbeck's role in it also surely complicated efforts to re-sign the quarterback.

The bottom line: Seattle's quarterback needs are in flux as the draft approaches, and the team is picking late enough to defy easy projections.

The Seahawks have enough needs throughout their roster to consider trading the 25th overall choice, something NFL teams have done four times in the last six drafts.

With that in mind, here's a look at what the 25th overall choice has brought in some previous trades involving only draft choices (player trades are prohibited during the lockout) ...

The pick: 25th overall

Held by: Seattle Seahawks

Most recent trade involving only picks: 2008. The Seahawks were in the middle of this one. They sent the 25th pick to Dallas, which took cornerback Mike Jenkins, in return for the 28th (Lawrence Jackson), 163rd (Owen Schmitt) and 235th (Brandon Coutu) choices. The trade-value chart says the Seahawks overpaid by about 30 points, or the equivalent of a pick late in the fifth round. Jenkins has one Pro Bowl on his resume. Jackson, Schmitt and Coutu are long gone from Seattle.

The price of moving up: In 2007, the New York Jets sent the 25th, 59th and 164th choices to the Carolina Panthers for the 14th pick, which the Jets used for Darrelle Revis. The trade-value chart says the Jets paid 1,056.8 points for picks worth 1,116 points. The difference equates to a pick late in the fourth round. Carolina selected linebacker Jon Beason (25th), offensive lineman Ryan Kalil (59th) and linebacker Tim Shaw (164th).

Sliding out of the round. Teams moved back from the 25th spot twice in the six most recent NFL drafts.

• In 2006, the New York Giants sent the 25th choice to Pittsburgh, which used the selection for receiver Santonio Holmes. The Giants received the 32nd (Mathias Kiwanuka), 96th (Gerris Wilkinson) and 129th (Guy Whimper) choices. The chart says the Steelers overpaid by 29 points, or a late fifth-round pick.
• In 2005, the Washington Redskins wanted quarterback Jason Campbell. The Denver Broncos were willing to accommodate them. Washington acquired the 25th pick, used for Campbell, for the 76th (Karl Paymah) pick, plus 2006 first- and fourth-round choices. San Francisco later acquired that 2006 first-rounder, using it for Manny Lawson.

The chart shows which picks changed hands in those four recent trades involving the 25th overall choice.