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Arizona Cardinals receiver Michael Floyd was fifth and Seattle Seahawks pass-rusher Bruce Irvin sixth on John Clayton's list of 10 new draft choices likely to make the greatest immediate impact.

"Floyd's presence may force defenses into more zone coverages, because it will be hard to double Larry Fitzgerald and match up man-to-man against Floyd," Clayton theorized. "Irvin is probably the draft's best pass-rusher and should put up double-digit sack numbers early in his career."

Let's consider that a launching point for a discussion EDTGO jump-started from his luxury box in the comments section of an earlier item on Arizona's draft thinking.

"Floyd will be starting and will have the best position of the rookies to get stats," he wrote.

Rookie receivers making at least 10 starts from 2009 through last season averaged 46 receptions for 721 yards and five touchdowns, according to Pro Football Reference. Cincinnati's A.J. Green and Tampa Bay's Mike Williams had the most receptions of the group (65 apiece). Green, Williams and Julio Jones each topped 900 yards. Those three joined Torrey Smith as the only ones with more than six touchdown receptions.

We shouldn't forget about St. Louis Rams second-round receiver Brian Quick. He has a good chance at starting. The Rams thought Quick reminded them of Terrell Owens from a physical standpoint. Owens had 35 catches for 520 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie, making 10 starts.

The status for San Francisco 49ers first-round receiver A.J. Jenkins could be tougher to define initially. He could wind up starting if the Randy Moss experiment does not work out. He could also ease into the role, getting fewer opportunities as the 49ers run their offense through other players primarily.

Double-digit sacks from Irvin might be enough to eclipse for impact the projected receiving numbers from Floyd, Quick or Jenkins.

Five rookies since 2009 have collected at least 10 sacks. San Francisco's Aldon Smith, with 14 sacks last season, was the only one to do so as a backup. Von Miller, Brian Orakpo, Clay Matthews and Ndamukong Suh -- all first-round choices, as were Smith and Irvin -- reached double digits in sacks while starting at least 13 games.

Carlos Dunlap had 9.5 sacks in 12 games, none of them starts, for Cincinnati in 2010.

Irvin should benefit from the Seahawks' very specific plans for him. The team got nine sacks in zero starts from Raheem Brock in 2010. Irvin will play a similar role and a similar percentage of the snaps, giving him a very good chance to eclipse Brock's total -- if he's talented enough to produce those numbers. Brock played about 50 percent of the snaps for Seattle in each of the last two seasons.

Who else deserves our consideration?

"Janoris Jenkins has a shot ... assuming he can keep his head on straight," ramm428a wrote.

"Yep," randdles wrote, "Jenkins will get to face five of the top QBs this year, he could make a big impact."

Matthew Stafford, Robert Griffin III, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are among the high-profile quarterbacks Jenkins, a second-round cornerback with first-round talent, will face in his initial season with the Rams. Jenkins will face those quarterbacks by Week 8, giving him a chance to shape perceptions early.

Devin McCourty and Joe Haden are the only drafted cornerbacks to exceed five interceptions as rookies over the past three seasons.

"Michael Brockers could have a huge impact," JohnnyP3180 wrote of the Rams' first-round choice. "Not flashy, but he could make the biggest difference for his team."

That might be true, but as a run stuffer, Brockers probably won't accumulate the stats players often need to draw acclaim. We'll be sure to monitor Brockers' contributions closely regardless.

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Every team in the NFC West had a 1,000-yard rusher last season.

Coaches in Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis have promoted run-first philosophies. Arizona has invested first- and second-round picks in running backs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, respectively.

Run, run, run.

And yet the division focused on the passing game quite a bit during the 2012 NFL draft -- on both sides of the ball. NFC West teams drafted a league-high three wide receivers in the first two rounds. Teams from the division drafted three cornerbacks in the first three rounds, tied with the NFC North for most in the league.

The charts show how many receivers and corners each division added through the first three rounds. The combined total for the NFC West (six) was the most for any division, one more than the NFC North.

St. Louis drafted cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins (second round) and Trumaine Johnson (third round). Arizona used a third-round choice for cornerback Jamell Fleming. Arizona (Michael Floyd) and San Francisco (A.J. Jenkins) used first-round picks for receivers. St. Louis added receiver Brian Quick in the second round (and another receiver, Chris Givens, in the fourth).

NFC West pass defenses could face additional pressure given the scheduling rotation in 2012.

Every NFC West team faces New England with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker.

The division also faces Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson), Detroit (Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew) and Chicago (Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall).

San Francisco draws New Orleans (Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston) and the New York Giants (Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz). Arizona faces Philadelphia (Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin) and Atlanta (Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones). Seattle faces Dallas (Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant) and Carolina (Cam Newton, Steve Smith).

The top five teams in 2011 passing yardage -- New Orleans, New England, Green Bay, Detroit and the Giants -- show up on NFC West schedules. Green Bay, New England, the Giants and Saints comprised the top four in yards per passing attempt. The top seven teams in passing touchdowns -- Green Bay, New Orleans, Detroit, New England, Dallas, Atlanta and the Giants -- play a combined 16 games against the NFC West.

And, of course, NFC West teams must face each other, which means games against Larry Fitzgerald, Vernon Davis, Randy Moss, Sidney Rice and others.

One man's opinion on the top five Monday night games for 2012:

1. Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions, Week 16. Call this one the Karma Bowl. The Falcons took offense when Ndamukong Suh allegedly celebrated Matt Ryan's ankle injury during an October game between the teams last season. Suh called the injury "karma" for the Falcons' allegedly dirty tactics. Good teams and bad blood should make for good theater.

2. Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons, Week 2. Peyton Manning's first post-Indy appearance on "Monday Night Football" takes him to Atlanta for only the third time in his career. The Falcons are a footnote in this matchup. Manning plays only one indoor game during the 2012 regular season. This is it.

3. Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles, Week 12. Neither team had a winning record last season, but who cares? This game presents a chance to see Cam Newton and Michael Vick on the same night in the same stadium for the first time -- assuming they're both healthy enough to play after running around, into and through defenses for two-plus months.

4. Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers, Week 11. Patrick Willis versus Matt Forte. Brian Urlacher versus Frank Gore. Expect a physical game and a big test for Jay Cutler on the road. The 49ers have arguably the NFL's best defense, and they'll be eager to show it in prime time.

5. Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks, Week 3. Two NFC West teams on the list? What is this, the NFC West blog? Yes, but this one's legit. Few venues can approach Seattle for atmosphere, especially in prime time. And this game marks Green Bay's lone appearance on Monday night. The Matt Flynn storyline adds interest.

Five considerations now that Peyton Manning has told the San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans he plans to sign with the Denver Broncos:

• More On Manning

  Peyton Picks Broncos:
  You can call this The Drive Part III: John Elway's determination to get Peyton Manning makes the Broncos a contender again, Ashley Fox writes. Story

  Peyton Manning's decision to play for the Broncos is very bad news for the rest of the AFC West, John Clayton writes. Story

  Manning has a kindred spirit in his corner with Elway as his boss, a big reason why he picked the Broncos, Bill Williamson writes. Blog

  • How Manning fits
  • How good are Broncos?
  • NFL Nation: Bloggers react
  • Mike and Mike: Chris Mortensen
  

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  Tim Tebow Watch:
  Mel Kiper breaks down five teams that may be interested in Denver quarterback Tim Tebow, now that Peyton Manning looks to be the starting QB for the Broncos. Story

  • NFL Nation: Bloggers on Tebow's fate
  • Rumors: Who wants Tebow?
  • ESPN Boston: Tebow a fit for Pats?
  • Vote: Tebow's future in NFL?

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  SportsNation:
  Peyton Manning's pick of a team set Twitter abuzz and drew reaction from several current and former NFL players. Not all (Deion Sanders) were fans of the move. Reaction

  • Vote: Peyton, Broncos a good fit?
  • Vote: Rank Broncos after move
  • Quiz: Broncos QBs since 2000

  More:
  • Fantasy: Broncos WRs gain value
  • Stats & Info: What Manning brings
  • Peyton Manning photo gallery

  Big sighs of relief: Arizona, Seattle and St. Louis no longer must worry about defending against a Manning-led 49ers offense. A healthy Manning would have made the 49ers even more formidable than they were while going 5-1 against the division last season. It's looking like the Seahawks will be the team in the division with the best shot at upgrading their quarterback situation.
• Harbaugh must take lead: The seemingly special bond between 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh and 2011 starter Alex Smith could need some repairing. That should not be too difficult if Harbaugh has been forthright with Smith throughout the process. The 49ers, like the Cardinals, will want to define their interest in Manning as a special case unrelated to their incumbent quarterback. Re-signing Smith should be a no-brainer now.
• Smith's only logical option. Smith has made it known he wants to continue playing for the 49ers. Hurt feelings suffered during negotiations and the Manning diversion should not be grounds for divorce. Unless Smith acts hastily out of anger, which seems unlikely given his temperament, the 49ers should now be able to re-sign Smith to a deal that gives them the flexibility to hand things over to Colin Kaepernick in the next couple years if Smith falters. The 49ers did lose some leverage, however, when Manning picked Denver over Tennessee. A deal with the Titans would have pushed Matt Hasselbeck onto the market.
• Forget about Tim Tebow. The Broncos wanted Manning not only because Manning is a great quarterback when healthy, but also because the organization was seeking a Tebow exit strategy. Manning's acquisition provides the perfect cover for Broncos executive John Elway, who has made clear his feelings that Tebow's playing style is not sustainable. I would not anticipate NFC West teams having interest in Tebow if the Broncos tried to trade him.
• Manning not on schedule. NFC West teams do not play the Broncos in 2012. They still face a lengthy list of talented quarterbacks, including Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo and Jay Cutler. Every NFC West team does face the Miami Dolphins, who lost out on Manning, did not sign Flynn and could have a tougher time signing Smith now that the 49ers have lost out on Manning.

It's a relief to have the Manning situation resolved. I was looking forward to the possibility of having him in the division, however, whether with Arizona or San Francisco.

Filippo from Windsor, Canada, thinks Alex Smith, not Kyle Williams, was the 49ers' biggest problem in the NFC Championship Game. He wondered whether the team could trade for Peyton Manning this offseason.

Mike Sando: There will almost certainly be no trade for Manning. The Colts could not trade Manning without first paying a $28 million bonus to him. Failing to pay that bonus by March 8 would make Manning a free agent when the trading period opened five days later.

My early take on Manning was that the Colts would keep him as long as he were healthy. Sweeping changes in the organization have created the impression Indianapolis anticipates making a clean break at the position. Indianapolis appears increasingly likely to part with Manning unless the sides adjust that bonus to buy time. Manning will not want to do that, most likely, if he knows the Colts are going to draft his replacement, Andrew Luck.

This has become a perfect storm. Manning's injury was worse than anticipated. He missed the entire season, longer than expected. The Colts were worse than anticipated without him, so bad they secured the top pick. Manning's health did not improve as anticipated. One of the brightest college quarterback prospects in years happened to be available in the next draft. And then Manning had that $28 million lever in his contract.

Those are all extreme circumstances. Throw them together and it's tough to envision the Colts keeping Manning. That $28 million price tag is too high amid questions about Manning's health.

We're in a holding pattern until the March 8 bonus date. Perceptions could change by then. If Manning does become a free agent, his health will remain the key variable. It's too early to know where he might land.

I suspect the 49ers will re-sign Alex Smith before or around the March 13 start to free agency. Arizona has until March 17 to pay a $7 million bonus to keep Kevin Kolb. The gap could give the Cardinals a chance to at least consider Manning. Lots of other teams would have interest as well.

Manning's recent comments to Bob Kravitz were illuminating. Manning said he felt as though sweeping changes in the Colts' organization had left people there "walking on eggshells." But Manning is the one with reason to feel that way. He's no longer in control of his immediate future.

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Dan from Portland asks why few people seem to be connecting Manning to the Seattle Seahawks. He thinks Kolb should get another chance in Arizona. He thinks Alex Smith should be the starter in San Francisco. And he sees Sam Bradford as the quarterback in St. Louis. Doesn't that leave Seattle as the most logical destination among NFC West teams?

Mike Sando: Yeah, I've wondered why Arizona has been mentioned in so many of the reports. It is possible people close to Manning are pushing Arizona as a possible destination because, one, Manning might see that as an appealing place to land and, two, the Cardinals do have that $7 million decision to make on Kolb. I see no reason for the Cardinals to push the Manning angle in the news, unless they hope to pressure Kolb into an adjusted contract.

I agree with you on Seattle making the most sense from a quarterback-need perspective. The fit from a system standpoint would take some adjusting. I also wonder how much the Seahawks would want to commit financially to such a high-profile player with clear health concerns. Would they see this as a risky two-year rental, or as a chance to become a championship contender quickly?

Manning's health is the No. 1 variable. If he hits the market in good physical condition, lots of teams will be interested.

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Jeremiah from Germany thinks 49ers fans should be clamoring for Dwayne Bowe, not Marques Colston, in free agency this offseason.

Mike Sando: It's tough for me to envision the Chiefs letting Bowe get away. Smart teams re-sign their best players, especially when those players are young. I would also favor Bowe over Colston, all else being equal. But I also think the 49ers would be more likely to address the position in the draft and with a lower-priced free agent. That is how they believe in putting their team together. They have been averse to overpaying for players other teams have let hit the market. That was the case last offseason when the 49ers showed no interest in Nnamdi Asomugha and other top free agents.

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Scott from Epsom, N.H., thinks I've failed to pay the New York Giants their proper respects and have instead sought to diminish their victory by branding them as concussion-inflicting cheaters. "Grow up," he writes. "It's a game."

Mike Sando: The stories about the Giants trying to inflict a concussion upon Kyle Williams originated in the Newark Star-Ledger and New York Magazine. I simply linked to them, which was pretty much a no-brainer from an NFC West perspective. These were direct quotes from Giants players speaking on the record in well-established publications.

On the game itself, the 49ers blew a prime opportunity to reach the Super Bowl, giving up 10 points on uncharacteristic special-teams turnovers. That was my focus from a 49ers/NFC West standpoint coming out of the game. There's no shortage of favorable Giants coverage out there. I just thought the 49ers did more to lose the game than their opponent did to win it. This being the NFC West blog, the 49ers were going to be my focus.

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Adam from El Paso noticed that the last quarterbacks drafted in first rounds tend to struggle. He pointed to Patrick Ramsey (2002), Rex Grossman (2003), J.P. Losman (2004), Jason Campbell (2005), Jay Cutler (2006) and Brady Quinn (2007) as examples. He pointed to Joe Flacco (2008) and possibly Cutler as exceptions, but wondered if there was something to it.

Mike Sando: Interesting observation. There is nothing dooming these players. Overall, though, the quarterbacks with the most obvious skills tend to get drafted earlier. If you've reached the late first round and are thinking about a quarterback, you're probably gambling more than teams selecting them earlier. Perhaps you're more apt to be reaching for a prospect because you need one and fear missing out.

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Joe from Phoenix sees Jeff Fisher delivering credible coordinators and asks whether we should expect him to land top free agents as well. He points to Cortland Finnegan as a possibility and wants to know if there are others with ties to Fisher or the current Rams coordinators.

Mike Sando: Yes, we should expect the Rams to have interest in free-agent players Fisher and his coordinators coached in the past. Finnegan is one of them.

Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer spent the last six seasons with New York, but the Jets do not have many potential offensive free agents of note. The list includes quarterback Mark Brunell, receiver Plaxico Burress, tight end Matthew Mulligan, quarterback Kevin O'Connell, running back LaDainian Tomlinson and tackle Robert Turner.

Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams spent the last three seasons with New Orleans.

The Saints' potential defensive free agents include linebacker Jonathan Casillas, defensive end Jeff Charleston, linebacker Jo-Lonn Dunbar, nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin, linebacker Ramon Humber, defensive end Turk McBride, cornerback Tracy Porter, defensive tackle Shaun Rogers and cornerback Leigh Torrance.

Williams was also with 49ers cornerback Carlos Rogers, another potential free agent, years ago in Washington.

Fisher's roots as head coach in Tennessee provide additional connections. The Titans' potential free agents include snapper Ken Amato, safety Jordan Babineaux, linebacker Patrick Bailey, defensive end Dave Ball, Finnegan, safety Michael Griffin, running back Ahmard Hall, receiver Lavelle Hawkins, defensive end William Hayes, safety Chris Hope, defensive end/tackle Jason Jones, tackle Mike Otto, guard Jake Scott, linebacker Tim Shaw and safety Anthony Smith.

We're just about there. Only one more day until San Francisco 49ers fans find out whether their team is headed for the Super Bowl against Baltimore or New England.

I'll be traveling from the icy Northwest to the rainy San Francisco Bay Area a bit later Saturday.

Those looking for some day-before-game reading might want to check out Jeff Chadiha's piece on 49ers quarterback Alex Smith.

The way Chadiha sees things, finding the right environment for a quarterback can be tougher than finding the right quarterback. I recall Steve Young voicing a similar opinion in 2007 when asked to rate the prospects for various young quarterbacks.

Back then, the personnel people I polled thought Jay Cutler was headed for stardom, in part because they envisioned him developing under Mike Shanahan for years to come. They weren't convinced on Eli Manning. The 49ers' Smith wasn't even on their radar.

Times change.

Mel Kiper Jr., in updating his draft-day grades for NFL teams for this Insider piece, says Seattle Seahawks rookie fifth-round pick Richard Sherman has helped to make the Seattle secondary "one of the best in the NFL in a really short period."

This is true. Sherman quickly served notice he could become one of the NFL's top corners. Fellow corner Brandon Browner and safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor also enjoyed strong seasons for Seattle.

Arizona also upgraded its secondary with cornerback Patrick Peterson. The 49ers added third-round corner Chris Culliver.

But before the NFC West's up-and-coming defensive backs get too cocky, they might want to check the 2012 list of opponents.

Every team in the division faces Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford next season. Seattle also draws Cam Newton. Arizona gets Matt Ryan and Michael Vick. The 49ers face Eli Manning and Drew Brees.

There will be plenty of opportunities for young NFC West defensive backs to prove their mettle -- and also to suffer through sophomore slumps.

In 2011, Seattle faced four quarterbacks outside the division who finished the season with more than 20 touchdown passes: Romo (31), Ryan (29), Manning (29) and Ben Roethlisberger (21). Injuries spared them from facing Jay Cutler or Vick, who failed to reach 20 touchdowns largely because they missed games.

The Seahawks are scheduled to face seven such quarterbacks outside the division in 2012, weighted heavily at the top: Rodgers (45), Stafford (41), Brady (39), Romo (31), Mark Sanchez (26), Ryan Fitzpatrick (24) and Newton (21).

Cutler could be healthy when the teams meet again in 2012. Sanchez and Fitzpatrick often struggled. Still, the top of that list is loaded.

The Seattle Seahawks lost their leading receiver from 2010 to a serious injury Sunday without dramatically affecting their ability to win.

The broken ankle Mike Williams suffered during a 38-14 victory over the Chicago Bears would have been devastating had it happened a year ago. It should be devastating this season, too, given that projected 2011 receiver leader Sidney Rice is already out for the season.

But the way the Seahawks are winning these days, with young players emerging throughout the roster, little seems to cramp their style.

Jerry Brewer of the Seattle Times says the Seahawks' performance at Soldier Field proves they're more than just a novelty. Brewer: "You could shrug it off and caution that the Bears were without starting quarterback Jay Cutler and running back Matt Forte. Or you could look more closely at the mounting evidence -- five victories in the past six games -- and acknowledge the Seahawks have learned how to win, at home and on the road." Noted: The truth probably lies somewhere in betwee. The Seahawks have learned how to win because they're playing better and they've done a good job developing young players. They've also faced some struggling teams with quarterback issues (St. Louis twice, Philadelphia, Chicago).

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times says Taravaris Jackson completed 15 of 19 passes in the second half. O'Neil: "For the past six weeks, Seattle has relied upon the run, while Jackson has been the bus driver whose job is just to keep the whole operation on the road. That changed in the third quarter Sunday. With the Bears playing a more aggressive coverage scheme, the Seahawks looked to push the ball downfield more aggressively. After not completing a single pass of more than 30 yards in any of his past three games, Jackson had two such completions among Seattle's first four plays of the second half. The first was a 33-yard gain to Golden Tate on third down, followed immediately by a 43-yard pass to Ben Obomanu against man-to-man coverage."

Also from O'Neil: a look at the Seahawks' diminished playoff hopes.

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com names rookie linebacker K.J. Wright the team's player of the game Sunday. Farnsworth: "The rookie strongside linebacker did a lot of the dirty work that led to a lot of the big plays, as well as making a game-high eight solo tackles. Red Bryant’s interception and 20-yard return for a touchdown to ignite the Seahawks’ 31-0 run in the second half? It was Wright who hit Bears QB Caleb Hanie to set up the pick-six."

John McGrath of the Tacoma News Tribune says Seattle's Pete Carroll is putting together his best coaching job. McGrath: "Through eight games, his team was 2-6 and all but eliminated from the playoff race. Beyond the bleak numbers, the Hawks were a chore to watch and difficult to appreciate, often cheap-shot artists who did nothing else remotely artistic. How does a football team manage to be dirty and dull at the same time? Carroll needed two months to clean up the slop, but clean it up he did."

710ESPN Seattle's Liz Mathews says Williams suffered a broken ankle against the Bears.

For some reason, Tom Brady vs. Tim Tebow is attracting more attention than John Skelton vs. Seneca Wallace heading into Week 15.

Skelton is getting the start for Arizona while Kevin Kolb continues his recovery from a concussion suffered against San Francisco last week. It's possible all four Week 15 games involving NFC West teams will feature at least one backup:

• Seattle at Chicago: The Bears are without Jay Cutler. Caleb Hanie starts for him. Chicago is 0-3 and averaging 11 points per game since Hanie took over as the starter.
• St. Louis vs. Cincinnati: Kellen Clemens is expected to start for the injured Sam Bradford behind center for the Rams. Clemens was not even on the Rams' roster until the last couple of weeks. Bradford's injured ankle had him back in a walking boot and missing practices. He's doubtful.
• Arizona vs. Cleveland: Skelton gets the start for Kolb. NFC West alumnus Seneca Wallace starts for the Browns' injured Colt McCoy. Skelton has done a good job picking up yardage with his feet. He's big, strong and tough to take down. Wallace is fast and athletic enough to moonlight at wide receiver as needed.
• San Francisco vs. Pittsburgh: Nothing seems to keep the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger from playing. He practiced on a limited basis Friday after resting his injured ankle previously during the week. Charlie Batch would start for Roethlisberger on Monday night, if needed.

Consider it a testament to Tarvaris Jackson's toughness and recuperative powers for his injury status to barely merit a mention. Seattle's starter suffered a partially torn pectoral muscle in Week 5 and missed only one game.

Significant quarterback considerations affect every game involving NFC West teams in Week 15. That makes the picks tougher than usual.

• Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. ET. The Bears should win home games in December against West Coast teams with losing records. Subtracting Jay Cutler and Matt Forte from the Bears' lineup dramatically improves the Seahawks' chances. But the Seahawks' reshuffled offensive line faces difficult matchups. Let's pick against the team with Caleb Hanie at quarterback. Sando's best guess: Seahawks 13, Bears 10.
• St. Louis Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m. ET. The Bengals have lost four of five, but nothing about the Rams suggests they'll win another game this season. Sam Bradford's injury status -- and his stats -- keep getting worse. Sando's best guess: Bengals 17, Rams 10.
• Arizona Cardinals vs. Cleveland Browns, 4:15 p.m. ET. The Browns have exceeded 14 points twice in their last 10 games. Having Seneca Wallace at quarterback probably helps, but the Cardinals are playing well enough on defense to control this game. The Cardinals, for all their struggles earlier in the season, lead the NFL in touchdowns covering at least 50 yards (nine). The Browns have given up only two. Sando's best guess: Cardinals 20, Browns 13.
• San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:30 p.m. ET. This is the toughest NFC West outcome to predict. The Steelers are traveling across the country with an injured quarterback to face one of the toughest defenses in the NFL. But the 49ers' offense is struggling and, as Matt Williamson pointed out, the matchups favor Pittsburgh. The Steelers' last three opponents have combined for 19 points. The 49ers gave up 21 to Arizona. Sando's best guess: Steelers 17, 49ers 16

My record picking NFC West games stands at 28-15 after going 1-1 last week amid indecision over the 49ers-Cardinals game.

Where am I wrong this time?

A look at how recent quarterback injuries are affecting NFC West opponents:

Week 14

Seattle Seahawks: They face a St. Louis team that could be without its top two quarterbacks, Sam Bradford and A.J. Feeley. Tom Brandstater, Kellen Clemens and practice-squad QB Matt Gutierrez are getting the work in practice.

Week 15

San Francisco 49ers: They face the Pittsburgh Steelers, who could be without Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger said he suffered a high-ankle sprain Thursday night against Cleveland. Players usually need a few weeks to recover from such injuries. However, Roethlisberger could have an easier time playing because the injury affected his left ankle. As a right-handed quarterback, he plants off his right foot.

Arizona Cardinals: They face the Browns, who could be without quarterback Colt McCoy. McCoy suffered a concussion and an injured left hand against the Steelers. His status is uncertain. The Browns sent him home Friday amid questions about whether the team erred in sending McCoy back into the game Thursday night.

Seahawks: They visit the Chicago Bears, who remain without starting quarterback Jay Cutler. Cutler has a thumb injury on his throwing hand.

Week 16

Rams: They visit the Steelers. Roethlisberger's status could be a factor.

The Seattle Seahawks' last two games have cost them two of their best offensive players.

Receiver Sidney Rice and left tackle Russell Okung are finished for the season.

Injuries are part of the game, of course, and Seattle's next two opponents can offer corroborating evidence:

• St. Louis, Week 14: The Rams have placed 10 cornerbacks on injured reserve this season. Like the Seahawks, they are playing without both starting offensive tackles. An ankle injury has sidelined their quarterback, Sam Bradford. Coach Steve Spagnuolo said Monday the Rams weren't sure if Bradford would return this week.
• Chicago, Week 15: A trip to Chicago in December is rarely fun for the Bears' opponents. Facing the Bears without Okung's presence against Julius Peppers will be daunting. However, the Bears are hurting worse after losing quarterback Jay Cutler and running back Matt Forte. The knee injury Forte suffered Sunday will sideline him for weeks.

The Seahawks are 5-7. They have a better-than-expected chance at reaching 7-7 before San Francisco visits in Week 16. Matching their 7-9 record from last season once appeared unlikely. Not any longer.

Earlier: Seattle, Arizona suddenly have playoff hopes.

The best NFL quarterbacks are good against standard and added pressure alike.

Aaron Rodgers comes to mind. The Green Bay Packers' quarterback leads the NFL in Total QBR when opponents send four or fewer pass-rushers, and also when they send five or more, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Alex Smith's stronger production against five or more pass-rushers has stood out all season.

• Smith vs. four or fewer rushers: six touchdowns, four interceptions and 16 sacks in 222 dropbacks, with a 47.7 QBR (50 is average) and an 84.7 NFL passer rating.
• Smith vs. five or more: seven touchdowns, one interception and 14 sacks in 106 dropbacks, with a 57.2 QBR and 105.9 NFL rating.

Multiple factors can produce such a disparity. A quick-thinking quarterback armed with a strong game plan and a solid protection scheme can have an advantage against added pressure. Quarterbacks working behind weaker offensive lines could suffer against standard pressure if opponents got to them without sacrificing coverage. Having additional players in coverage affords defenses with additional combinations in coverage, another consideration.

The chart immediately below ranks quarterbacks by the largest QBR disparity when facing five or more pass-rushers vs. four or fewer. Smith and Arizona's Kevin Kolb are among 11 quarterbacks with higher QBR scores against five or more rushers. They have done better against pressure, in theory. Ranking higher on the list isn't necessarily desirable; like Rodgers, a top quarterback should produce in both areas.

Fifty is an average score, with 100 as the limit.

QBR differential is an imperfect measure because point differentials nearer the margins (zero and 100) carry more significance than they do nearer the middle of the range. But the disparities are still helpful in showing how quarterbacks perform, in general, across these situations.

Rex Grossman, who heads the first chart, completed 9 of 12 passes for 117 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions and one sack when the Seahawks sent five or more rushers against him Sunday. He completed 17 of 23 passes for 197 yards with one touchdown, two interceptions and no sacks against standard pressure.

The final chart shows the 22 qualifying quarterbacks with better QBR numbers when facing four or fewer pass-rushers, again ranked by percentage difference.

Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson and St. Louis' Sam Bradford show up on this list. There is Rodgers, down at the bottom, nearly equally strong in each situation.

The San Francisco 49ers have held on to the No. 2 spot for a fourth consecutive week in ESPN's NFL Power Rankings heading into Week 12.

Our panelists appear unsympathetic to their plight traveling across the country to Baltimore on a short week. It's looking like the 49ers will need a victory over the Ravens to maintain their status in the rankings. This is already the 49ers' highest ranking so late in a season since ESPN.com began archiving power rankings histories.

"If the Ravens win, I'd move them ahead of the Niners," voter Paul Kuharsky said.

Another voter, James Walker, put it this way: "It's simple: San Francisco has to beat Baltimore to stay No. 2. If the Ravens win, I'm more likely to put them at No. 2 over the 49ers. Head-to-head means a lot. That's why they play the games."

With a No. 2 ranking, there's almost nowhere for the 49ers to go but down. Almost ...

"It's possible they could actually move up with a win, because Green Bay doesn't exactly have a gimme with Detroit," Ashley Fox said, alluding to a scenario that would surely stir passionate conversation.

The top four teams remained unchanged from last week. Baltimore replaced Chicago at No. 5 after the Bears won a game but lost their starting quarterback, Jay Cutler, to a thumb injury requiring surgery.

And now, a closer look at the rankings heading into Week 12 ...

Rising (12): Cleveland Browns (+4), Miami Dolphins (+4), Philadelphia Eagles (+4), Dallas Cowboys (+3), Atlanta Falcons (+2), Denver Broncos (+2), New England Patriots (+2), Oakland Raiders (+2), Baltimore Ravens (+1), Carolina Panthers (+1), Houston Texans (+1), Seattle Seahawks (+1).

Falling (12): New York Giants (-5), Arizona Cardinals (-4), Jacksonville Jaguars (-3), San Diego Chargers (-3), Buffalo Bills (-2), Chicago Bears (-2), Cincinnati Bengals (-2), Minnesota Vikings (-2), Kansas City Chiefs (-1), New York Jets (-1), St. Louis Rams (-1), Tennessee Titans (-1).

Unchanged (8): Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins.

Deadlocked: We broke one tie this week. Tampa Bay prevailed over San Diego at No. 20 on the third tiebreaker (which team won a game most recently). Head-to-head results and overall record did not break the tie.

Like minds: All five panelists ranked the Packers first, the 49ers second and the Colts last -- same as last week.

Agree to disagree: The Texans generated the largest gap between high and low votes among panelists. Quarterback injuries played a role in disparities for Houston and Chicago. Kuharsky gave both teams the benefit of the doubt pending additional evidence, but he views the teams differently.

"I have a lot more faith in Matt Leinart and what's around him than I do in Caleb Hanie and what's around him," Kuharsky said. "In both instances, I didn't want to score the teams down ahead of time. I put them where they are now, not where I think they'll be. My forecast would be that the Texans still win their division while the Bears lose out in a wild-card bid."

A look at the five teams producing disparities of at least six spots between highest and lowest votes:

• Texans (7): Fox ranked them fifth, Walker ranked them 12th.
• Bears (6): Kuharsky fifth, Walker 11th.
• Lions (6): Walker seventh, Sando 13th.
• Seahawks (6): Sando 19th, Kuharsky 25th.
• Cardinals (6): Kuharsky 24th, Sando 30th.

Power rankings histories: These colorful layered graphs show where each NFL team has ranked every week since the 2002 season.

Ranking the divisions: Teams from the AFC North overtook teams from the NFC North for the highest average ranking among divisions. The NFC West, 6-2 over the past two weeks, held on to the seventh spot, ahead of teams from the AFC South.


A voter-by-voter look at changes of at least five spots since last week:

• Sando: Cardinals (-8), Bills (-6), Browns (+5), Dolphins (+7).
• Clayton: Giants (-6).
• Kuharsky: Browns (+5), Eagles (+6).
• Walker: Bears (-7), Browns (+5), Eagles (+7).
• Fox: Texans (-7), Bills (-6), Cardinals (-5), Jaguars (-5), Rams (-5), Falcons (+5), Dolphins (+5), Eagles (+7).

For download: An Excel file -- available here -- showing how each voter voted this week and in past weeks.

The file includes a "powerflaws" sheet pointing out potential flaws in voters' thinking by showing how many higher-ranked opponents each team defeated this season.

This week, No. 13 Cincinnati and last-ranked Indianapolis are the only teams with zero victories over teams ranked higher than them. Denver, ranked 17th, and Buffalo, ranked 19th, are the only teams with more than two victories over teams currently ranked higher than them.

A quick primer on the "powerflaws" sheet:

• Column Y features team rankings.
• Column Z shows how many times a team has defeated higher-ranked teams.
• Change the rankings in Column Y as you see fit.
• Re-sort Column Y in ascending order (1 to 32) using the standard Excel pull-down menu atop the column.
• The information in Column Z, which reflects potential ranking errors, will change (with the adjusted total highlighted in yellow atop the column).
• The lower the figure in that yellow box, the fewer conflicts.

Chris Brown's piece for Grantland on the San Francisco 49ers' passing game is a must-read for anyone hoping to better understand how Alex Smith is avoiding mistakes.

The premise, in short, says the 49ers have eliminated sight-adjustment routes from the playbook, instead building into the offense alternatives against blitzes by design, not simply in reaction to what the defense might be doing. This is spot on, and a reflection of what Harbaugh learned from Lindy Infante during his days as the Indianapolis Colts' quarterback.

I've tried to explain those Infante-based roots at various points. Brown's piece has brought into focus the application of those coaching principles. And, as joe_cool35 noted in the comments section, Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle has covered some of this ground as well.

The changes Harbaugh has made are not specific to Smith. They are philosophical. The Green Bay Packers are using similar principles to an even greater degree. The 49ers would be using the same concepts if Aaron Rodgers or Peyton Manning were their quarterback. They are running their offense, not an Alex Smith offense, independent of whether or not the team would be more pass-oriented with another quarterback.

The approach suits Smith well because it eliminates doubt about whether or not the receiver has seen the same thing and reacted the same way. Smith knows what the receivers are going to do before the snap. He adjusts based upon what he sees from the defense. He should not have to wonder whether or not the receiver read the defense the same way he did.

"If you are in a three-step tempo to one side of the field, you could run a three-step tempo to that side, check it out, if it's not there, you are in rhythm to a five-step tempo to the other side," Harbaugh said when I asked him about the concepts during training camp. "Or you could go a five-step tempo to this side, check it out, it's not there, then come back to the other side of the field, you didn’t take any more steps, but you are still in seven-step timing on a five-step drop."

Smith's college coach, Urban Meyer, has long maintained that Smith is at his best when he's comfortable with every aspect of an offense. Some of the NFL's top quarterbacks have similar mindsets. Manning, Tom Brady and others, including Matt Hasselbeck, also covet more certainty. Others -- think Jay Cutler and Brett Favre -- have an easier time cutting loose.

The principles Harbaugh and his offensive staff have implemented were new to Harbaugh when he signed with Infante's Colts in 1994. Infante had expanded upon the option-route concepts Don Coryell used in San Diego.

I'm not certain how the 49ers are using these concepts, but the basic idea is relatively simple. Let's say a receiver has two options on a route. If the quarterback doesn't throw to him on the first option, the receiver goes to the second option. Either way, the quarterback knows the options and throws the ball when he's comfortable with what he sees.

"You could be reading two receivers," Harbaugh explained. "They are in a principle, say, a 'go' and then you come back to a deep option route. Five-step tempo back to a seven. If it is open, you throw it. If it is not open, I come back. It's open or it’s not."

One key for the 49ers and other teams using these concepts is to make sure the the routes designed to beat blitzes don't compromise the offense if the defense plays coverage instead.

For example, let's say the offense is facing facing third-and-7. The play might feature longer routes on the front side, with slant routes on the back side. The longer routes would be set to five- or seven-step timing, but if the quarterback noticed trouble quickly, he could still throw the slant on a three-step drop. But you're still running slant routes on third-and-7.

Smith has 10 touchdown passes and only two interceptions this season. He had eight touchdowns with one interception while posting a 3-2 record in his final five starts last season, before Harbaugh arrived. For that reason, I wouldn't attribute all Smith's success to Harbaugh or eliminating sight adjustments, etc. But if Smith appears more comfortable with the offense, the changes are very likely playing a role.