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NFL rosters undergo massive changes each offseason. That has been particularly true in 2012 as limits increased from 80 to 90 players.

As much as I'd like to comply with requests to publish specific roster breakdowns for age and other factors, the changes require quite a bit of time to process.

A few trends are coming into focus regarding the NFC West already:

• The St. Louis Rams keep getting younger. I'm projecting them to be the youngest team in the league by a relatively wide margin, pending a few missing dates of birth for undrafted rookies on other teams. Mario Haggan (32), Quintin Mikell (31), Scott Wells (31) and Harvey Dahl (30) are the oldest players on the team. Gone are Fred Robbins (35), James Hall (35), Justin Bannan (33), Ben Leber (33) and Josh Brown (33). The Rams have not re-signed any of their own unrestricted free agents, including A.J. Feeley (35), Tony Wragge (32) and Brady Poppinga (32). Al Harris, 37, is retiring.
• The Seattle Seahawks have quietly gotten older. They ranked among the one or two youngest teams in the NFL last season and could regain that status once roster cuts are made. For now, however, I'm projecting the Seahawks to rank just outside the 10 youngest teams. Seattle brought back Marcus Trufant (31), Leroy Hill (29) and Michael Robinson (29) while adding Alex Barron (29), Frank Omiyale (29), Deuce Lutui (29) and Barrett Ruud (29 this week).
• The Arizona Cardinals could get older on defense. Arizona has gotten younger overall, but re-signing Vonnie Holliday (36) and Clark Haggans (35) would probably move the Cardinals back among the 10 oldest teams. Some of Arizona's age is concentrated with its specialists, however. That is also true for the San Francisco 49ers. Sometimes age is a good thing at those positions.
• The 49ers are young up front on offense. I'm projecting San Francisco to take one of the two or three youngest offensive lines to camp. Parting with 30-year-old Adam Snyder in free agency affected the equation once the 49ers decided to let youngsters Alex Boone and Daniel Kilgore compete for the job at right guard.

Enjoy your Friday. Hope to see you at the rescheduled NFC West chat. I'll publish a reminder later Friday.

The NFL rule expanding roster limits to 90 players came at the right time for teams overhauling their personnel.

The St. Louis Rams are one of those teams.

They drafted 10 players and are close to adding 23 undrafted free agents.

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Rams cut five veteran players Thursday -- Demarco Cosby, John Henderson, Nate Ness, Quinn Porter and Chris Smith -- to make room for the influx. Thomas: "The Rams attempted to address their shortage of linebackers by adding undrafted rookies Sammy Brown of Houston, Derrick Choice of Stephen F. Austin, Alex Hoffman-Ellis of Washington State, and Noah Keller of Ohio. Brown led the nation in tackles for loss (30), while also registering 13.5 sacks for Houston. He's 6-2, 242 and ran a 4.63 at his pro day. Hoffman-Ellis was named Washington State's defensive MVP for the 2011 season after recording 88 tackles and two sacks, and returning his only interception for a touchdown." Noted: Releasing veteran kicker Josh Brown also contributed to the youth movement.

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com says the San Francisco 49ers "have not ruled out" moving right tackle Anthony Davis to right guard, allowing Alex Boone to take over at right tackle. But Boone might be the front-runner at right guard for now. Maiocco: "The 49ers were fine letting Adam Snyder get away to sign a five-year contract with the Arizona Cardinals because the team believes a promotion from within will result in an upgrade. If Boone wins the starting job at right guard, he could still serve as the team's swing tackle. It would be easier for the 49ers to move Boone to one of the tackle positions and bring someone off the sideline to take over at guard than to groom another player to back up at both tackle spots."

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee says rookie Josh Looney faces stiff competition in his push to start at right guard.

Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News checks in with former 49ers linebacker and broadcaster Gary Plummer regarding the death of Plummer's friend and former teammate, Junior Seau. Plummer estimated he had suffered more than 1,000 concussions during his career, and that Seau probably suffered more than that. Plummer: "In the 1990s, I did a concussion seminar. They said a Grade 3 concussion meant you were knocked out, and a Grade 1 meant you were seeing stars after a hit, which made me burst out in laughter. As a middle linebacker in the NFL, if you don't have five of these (Grade 1 effects) each game, you were inactive the next game. Junior played for 20 years. That's five concussions a game, easily. How many in his career then? That's over 1,500 concussions. I know that's startling, but I know it's true. I had over 1,000 in my 15 years. I felt the effects of it. I felt depression going on throughout my divorce. Junior went through it with his divorce." Noted: I'd be interested in hearing what a doctor would say about Plummer's estimates.

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com looks at all the starters who have been in the lineup with Leroy Hill.

Also from Farnsworth: a look at the unusual pieces the Seahawks have put together on defense. Coach Pete Carroll: "Our defense is a 4-3 scheme with 3-4 personnel. It’s just utilizing the special talents of our guys."

Brady Henderson of 710ESPN Seattle runs the Robert Turbin photo Carroll was marveling over during draft weekend. Does any player in the NFL have more muscular arms?

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic says the Cardinals' decision to draft a cornerback early added competition to a position that wasn't hurting in that area. Somers: "At least four cornerbacks, including Greg Toler and Jamell Fleming, have a legitimate shot at starting at left cornerback. Toler was contending for the job last summer when he suffered a torn ACL and missed the season. A.J. Jefferson, who lost the starting job after seven games, is returning. William Gay signed as a free agent."

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com says the team has recommitted to quarterback fundamentals with John McNulty coaching the position. John Skelton: "In years past, it seemed like, if the ball’s on the money and where it needs to be, we could let everything else slide. Now, I am throwing some good balls but my feet are messed up and that’s when I get coached up. Not only with coach McNulty but coach (Ken Whisenhunt) back there and coach Mike (Miller) sometimes."

The 1990 NFL draft class featured Pro Football Hall of Famers Cortez Kennedy and Emmitt Smith.

Sadly, that class also included Jeff Alm, who committed suicide following a traffic accident that killed his best friend, and Anthony Smith, who would be charged with murder in 2011.

No one could have anticipated fifth overall choice Junior Seau, 43, joining that second tragic list before taking his rightful place among Kennedy and Smith as Hall of Famers from that draft class.

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com grew up in San Diego and covered the AFC West during Seau's prime years with the San Diego Chargers. Farnsworth: "I knew of Seau before I ever saw him play. In the fall of 1973, I was working for a newspaper in Oceanside, Calif., and covering the high school football team. Seau played at Oceanside High before becoming an All-American at USC. Just the mention of his name would create a silence of reverence in the locker room, especially from the players of Samoan decent. Whenever coach Herb Meyer needed an example while discussing a current player, he would evoke memories of Seau. Unfortunately, that’s all any of us are left with -- our memories of Tiaina Baul Seau, Jr."

Also from Farnsworth: Michael Robinson's plan to build on a Pro Bowl season.

Brock Huard of 710ESPN Seattle thinks Visanthe Shiancoe would be an appealing option for the Seahawks at tight end.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic offers thoughts on the Cardinals' front-office changes involving Steve Keim and Jason Licht. Somers: "It's interesting, and I would think encouraging for the Cardinals, that both Keim and Licht were considered for general managers' jobs in the off-season. Keim interviewed in St. Louis, and Licht in Chicago. T.J. McCreight, one of the unsung workhorses in the organization, moved from pro personnel director to a job in the Colts' front office."

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes that former Rams kicker Josh Brown has signed with the New York Jets. Thomas: "Brown, 33, was deemed expendable in St. Louis after the Rams drafted Missouri Western State kicker Greg Zuerlein in the sixth round of the NFL draft Saturday. Fisher informed Brown he was being released later Saturday. With the Jets, Brown is expected to compete with Nick Folk for the kicking job."

Also from Thomas: a chat transcript with thoughts on the offensive line, and more. Thomas: "They did add Scott Wells at center, a former Pro Bowler, in free agency from Green Bay. They added G/T Quinn Ojinnaka and C/G Robert Turner in free agency. And they drafted Rokevious "Rock" (or he might spell it "Rok" _ I'll have to find out ) Watkins in the fifth round. Line coach Paul Boudreau is known for being able to develop talent. The belief is he'll get Saffold back up to par at left tackle and can straighten out Jason Smith's technique. For now, Ojinnaka, Turner, Watkins, and returning squad member Bryan Mattison will all be thrown in the mix competing for the left guard line."

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com offers thoughts on the 49ers' crowded offensive backfield. Maiocco: "As Frank Gore begins his eighth NFL season and has 1,653 regular-season rush attempts, the 49ers finally have some quality depth behind him. It seems likely that Gore's play time will decrease this season with more players capable of filling in. ... Anthony Dixon played just 52 snaps of offense last season. Dixon must convince the 49ers' coaching staff that he's as serious about his football career as the other running backs on the roster. As the offseason begins, Dixon clearly has the most ground to make up in the battle to win a roster spot."

Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News offers thoughts from current and former 49ers on Seau's passing.

First impressions on the St. Louis Rams' performance in the 2012 NFL draft:

What I liked: The Rams added 10 players, including a league-high six among the first 96 selections. More than any team, they were in position to get quantity and quality, a luxury won when the team traded the second overall choice to Washington before the draft. And with four first-round selections waiting over the next two drafts, the Rams should continue getting younger and more talented under coach Jeff Fisher and general manager Les Snead.

Question marks: The Rams twice possessed a selection within the top six overall picks, but they emerged without any of the roughly 10 highest-rated non-quarterbacks in the draft. That was the price of moving down to acquire additional selections. It's not a knock on the Rams' strategy. I think they did the right thing. But if Justin Blackmon or Michael Floyd becomes a superstar while Brian Quick struggles, the price could be high for quarterback Sam Bradford and the organization.

Trending: No team with Fisher as a head coach had ever used a first-round pick for an offensive lineman. The trend continued in Fisher's first draft with the Rams. The strategy will be for new line coach Paul Boudreau to coach up the existing tackles, notably Jason Smith on the right side. If that does not work, expect the Rams to consider using one of their two first-round choices in 2013 for an offensive tackle, putting Fisher's streak to the test.

Veteran put on alert: Josh Brown. The Rams told the veteran kicker he'd be released after the team used a fifth-round pick for Greg Zuerlein of Missouri Western. "We felt like this was going to be a need," Fisher told reporters after the draft. "We need to upgrade the position, so we couldn’t pass on this opportunity." Brown was generally good for the Rams, but there were some deflating misses from inside 50 yards when every point was precious last season.

The St. Louis Rams went through last season as one of the five oldest teams in the NFL.

They are now one of the five youngest after parting with veterans Jason Brown, Justin Bannan and Fred Robbins. The new average, based on rosters I maintain for every team, also reflects subtracting more than 400 projected free agents around the league.

The moves will create about $9.5 million in salary-cap space, according to Howard Balzer of 101ESPN St. Louis. The Rams will get another $1.6 million in space, as will every other NFC West team, after the league took away cap space from Washington and Dallas for accounting tactics they used in 2010.

Defensive end James Hall (35), kicker Josh Brown (32), safety Quintin Mikell (31), guard Harvey Dahl (30) and cornerback Ron Bartell (30) are the only Rams players in their 30s with contracts for the 2012 season. Mikell and Dahl project as starters. It's tougher to say how Hall and Bartell might fit.

Robbins was outstanding for the Rams in 2010, the first of two seasons he spent with the team. He wasn't as effective last season -- the team struggled as a whole, of course -- and will turn 35 next month. Brown, 28, started each of the 46 games he played in three seasons for the Rams, but the coaching staff benched him last season. Bannan, a free-agent addition during camp last summer, started 14 games. He turns 33 in April.

The Rams are only getting started on their roster makeover. They added veteran seasoning to patch holes on their roster coming out of the lockout last offseason. The contracts for most of those players had no bearing on the salary cap beyond 2011.

Now, with additional draft choices acquired from Washington, the Rams are in position to stock their roster with younger players. They had fallen behind their division rivals in developing young talent.

The facts: The St. Louis Rams finished the 2011 season with a 2-14 record after suffering a 34-27 defeat to the San Francisco 49ers in the Edward Jones Dome.

The upside: Even the worst defeats tend to feature a bright spot or two.

• The Rams scored two rushing touchdowns, one by Kellen Clemens and the other by Cadillac Williams. The 49ers had allowed only one rushing touchdown all season previously.
• Clemens' 18-yard run gave the Rams a 7-0 lead. His touchdown pass to Brandon Lloyd in the fourth quarter pulled the Rams within striking distance. A low completion percentage and one interception left Clemens with a 67.4 NFL passer rating out of a possible 158.3, but Clemens' broader contributions -- his rushing touchdown, plus his strong play late in the game -- equated to the Rams' highest single-game Total QBR score of the season (64.9 out of 100).
• Lloyd finished with 100 yards receiving, his first game in triple digits since the Rams acquired him from Denver before the trading deadline.
• Veteran defensive end James Hall collected his sixth sack of the season.
• Josh Brown and the Rams' kickoff coverage team executed a successful onside kick late in the game, keeping alive the Rams' chances. Linebacker Bryan Kehl made the recovery with 4:45 remaining. Cadillac Williams then scored on a 1-yard run to get the Rams within a touchdown at 34-27.
• Brown also made both field goal attempts. Punter Donnie Jones had a 41.2-yard net average.
• Resting Sam Bradford allowed the Rams' franchise quarterback to avoid further injury in an ultimately meaningless game against a tough defense. Clemens suffered a leg injury late in the game. There was no sense in putting Bradford at risk. He missed the game with a high-ankle sprain.

Looking ahead: The Rams are searching for a new coach and general manager. They hold the second overall choice in the 2012 draft.

Thoughts on the San Francisco 49ers and St. Louis Rams during their Week 17 game at the Edward Jones Dome, a 34-27 victory for San Francisco:

What it means: The 49ers played to win in securing the NFC's second seed in the playoffs and the first-round bye that goes along with it. Securing the bye was hugely important for the 49ers given their injury situation. Coach Jim Harbaugh showed how much this game meant to the team. He allowed Patrick Willis to play for the first time since suffering a hamstring injury. He approved a fake field goal when the 49ers led by 10 points late in the third quarter. The 49ers needed to play well because the Rams put together a furious comeback -- a potential last stand for coach Steve Spagnuolo. The Rams emerged with the No. 2 overall choice in the 2012 draft when Indianapolis also lost.

What I liked: Both teams played aggressively to win. Even the interception St. Louis threw on an ill-fated trick play showed Spagnuolo wasn't going to go quietly in what could have been his final game. The 49ers adjusted to their personnel issues by making Vernon Davis a bigger part of the passing game. Davis topped 100 yards. The fake field goal they executed was brilliant for the way it tricked the Rams into overlooking Michael Crabtree's presence on the field as a wide receiver. The Rams, meanwhile, put up a great fight in coming back from a 27-10 deficit even though they lost Steven Jackson to injury. Kicker Josh Brown provided a perfect onside kick that the Rams recovered. Third-string quarterback Kellen Clemens found Brandon Lloyd for the touchdown that pulled St. Louis within 34-27. And the 49ers, though reeling in the final minutes, came through with the defensive play they needed when NaVorro Bowman sacked Clemens and knocked him from the game with a leg injury at the 2:46 mark.

What I didn't like: Rams rookie tight end Lance Kendricks showed great promise in training camp, but his regular-season struggles continued in this game. The pass Kendricks dropped near the first-down marker with 6:15 left in the first half left the Rams in a third-and-10 situation. They fumbled the snap on their next play, setting up the 49ers to stretch their lead from 17-7 to 20-7. The 49ers gave up a rushing touchdown for the second week in a row. Willis, playing for the first time since suffering a hamstring injury Dec. 4, could not get around Rams tight end Stephen Spach when Jackson broke through the line for a 27-yard gain. The injury to Clemens was horribly unfortunate, but also an indication of the protection problems the Rams have had all season. The 49ers' defense, though facing the most limited offense in the NFL, blew a chance to set a franchise record for lowest points per game allowed. They needed to allow 15 or fewer points to break the 1976 team's NFL-era franchise record. They needed to allow 13 or fewer points to break the all-time franchise record, set in the AAFC era.

What's next: The 49ers have a week off before playing in the NFC divisional playoff round. That game will be at Candlestick Park. The Rams hold the second overall choice in the 2012 NFL draft.

» NFC Stock Watch: East | West | North | South » AFC: East | West | North | South

FALLING

1. John Skelton, Arizona Cardinals QB. Skelton started slowly again, and this time there wasn't enough time for the Cardinals to come back and win. The scoring passes Skelton threw came after his three interceptions and repeated inaccurate passes helped Cincinnati run out to a 23-0 lead. Skelton finished the game with a 6.3 score out of 100 in Total QBR, lowest among 32 starting quarterbacks in Week 16. Teams with lower QBR scores than their opponents are 1-47 (.021) over the past three weeks (the Bengals' Andy Dalton was at 70.9 in this game). Receiver Early Doucet was a candidate to represent the Cardinals in the "falling" category after missing a chance to make the tying reception against the Bengals, but he became a sympathetic figure, in my view, when Larry Fitzgerald's father criticized him.

2. Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks QB. Jackson has been a good fit for the Seahawks this season, but his performance in defeat against the 49ers served as a reminder that the team could outgrow his limitations before long. Jackson held the ball too long and seemed indecisive when the 49ers' Larry Grant struck him from behind to force a fumble with the game on the line. Holding the ball too long has been a problem frequently this season. Jackson finished the game with decent passing stats, but he didn't do enough to help his team win the game. This was a step backward for him as the Seahawks' playoff hopes evaporated.

3. Josh Brown, St. Louis Rams kicker. The Rams have enough problems without missing relatively short field goals on those few times when the offense moves into scoring position. Brown missed from 33 yards (and also from 52) against the Steelers when the Rams badly needed points. They trailed only 13-0 after three quarters before allowing two touchdowns to lose 27-0. Brown has made 73.1 percent of his attempts this season, which would be a career low. He has missed five times from inside 50 yards and twice from longer distances. Brown has made at least one attempt from 50-plus yards in each of his eight previous seasons, but none in 2011.

RISING

1. Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers WR. The 49ers faced a second-and-18 situation while trailing the Seahawks by a point with about six minutes left in the fourth quarter. Crabtree's leaping reception along the left sideline for a 41-yard gain bailed out the 49ers and moved them into position for the winning field goal. Crabtree finished the game with five receptions for 85 yards. Both figures were game highs. Crabtree also provided a 27-yard reception to open the second half. That play jump-started an eight-play, 75-yard touchdown drive as the 49ers tied the game following a rough first half.

2. Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks RB. Lynch's stock had already soared over the second half of this season, but he hasn't gotten enough recognition in this space. What Lynch accomplished against the 49ers takes his stock up a few more notches, anyway. You know the particulars by now. With 107 yards and a touchdown, Lynch ended the 49ers' streaks for not allowing a 100-yard rusher (36 games) or a rushing touchdown (15 games). Teams tend to think of running backs as easier to replace than players at other positions. Lynch is an exception in Seattle. The way he runs makes him irreplaceable at this time. He is the Seahawks' MVP, easily.

3. Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers QB. Poor passing stats in the first half (6-of-15) obscured a strong overall performance from Smith, his second in a row and third in four games. Smith made clutch scrambles, protected the football and came through with that deep pass to Crabtree for the 41-yard gain. He upped his starting record to 12-3 this season. Though Smith did not throw a scoring pass Saturday, he has 24 touchdowns and only six interceptions in his last 20 starts. The 49ers have a 15-5 record in those games. Yes, the team has often won with defense, special teams and ball control, but Smith has occasionally been the difference in victory, as he was Sunday. He has also avoided the mistakes that doomed the 49ers to defeat in the past.

Thoughts on the St. Louis Rams following their 27-0 defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16:

What it means: The Rams fell to 2-13, improving their once-long shot chances to secure the No. 1 overall choice in the 2012 draft. They entered Saturday tied with Indianapolis and Minnesota for fewest victories. A Minnesota victory would leave the Rams and Colts tied for the NFL's worst record heading into Week 17. A Colts victory over Jacksonville and a Rams defeat to San Francisco would give St. Louis the No. 1 overall choice for the second time in three seasons. But if Indianapolis loses to the Jaguars, the Colts emerge with the No. 1 overall pick no matter what else happens. That is because their strength of schedule was easier than the Rams' strength of schedule.

What I liked: Steven Jackson topped 100 yards rushing with another inspirational performance. Does another player in the NFL consistently demonstrate more heart and professionalism in the face of team failure? That would seem to be impossible. Jackson makes an otherwise unwatchable team watchable. He carried 24 times for 103 yards against the Steelers. The Rams trailed only 13-0 after three quarters, an indication they're playing hard, but also severely limited. The Rams held the Steelers to one third-down conversion in seven chances.

What I didn't like: Kicker Josh Brown missed from 52 and 33 yards. The 33-yard miss in the fourth quarter was particularly deflating. The Rams have little going for them throughout their roster. It's tough when they cannot count on their veteran kicker, either. The Rams allowed Steelers backup quarterback Charlie Batch to average 9.5 yards per attempt. Jackson's 17-yard reception was the longest by a Rams player.

What's next: The Rams close out their season at home against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 17.

The Arizona Cardinals have not been hurting for drama.

Despite a 2-6 record, they've been tied or close in the fourth quarter against six of eight opponents so far.

No Cardinals finish this season could match the one Patrick Peterson provided with his 99-yard punt return for a touchdown in overtime Sunday.

"Thank goodness that we got him [in the draft]," coach Ken Whisenhunt told reporters Monday.

Peterson's play tops our weekly list of game changers in the NFC West -- those plays affecting win probability the most for games involving teams in the division. This week marks the second in a row featuring all five plays from a Cardinals game. Arizona's win probability jumped from 56.8 percent to 100 percent upon Peterson's game-ending return, according to ESPN's analytics team.

The 43.2-point shift was the largest in the division, just ahead of the 41.4-point change when the Cardinals' Calais Campbell blocked Josh Brown's field-goal try as regulation expired.

The most pivotal play in the league from Week 9 belonged to the Seattle Seahawks' next opponent, Baltimore. The Ravens' win probability jumped 81.7 points to 97.8 percent when Joe Flacco connected with Torrey Smith for a 26-yard touchdown on third-and-10 with Baltimore trailing by four and 14 seconds remaining.

The chart breaks out the five most pivotal plays in the NFC West. I've framed them all from the Cardinals' perspective for clarity.

The facts: The St. Louis Rams fell to 1-7 with a 19-13 overtime loss at Arizona in Week 9.

The upside: Even the worst defeats tend to feature a bright spot or two.

• The Rams got strong production from Steven Jackson in the running game once again. Jackson carried 29 times for 130 yards. He has 289 rushing yards on 54 carries over the last two games. Jackson's one reception moved him past Elroy "Crazy Legs" Hirsch for sixth on the Rams' all-time list with 344.
• Josh Brown made three field-goal attempts.
• The Rams allowed a season-low 262 yards.
• Rookie Greg Salas led all players with seven receptions, one short of his career high.
• The Rams' defense collected two safeties. St. Louis became the first team in NFL history to score exactly four points in a quarter, according to Elias Sports Bureau.
• Chris Long collected his fourth sack int he last two games, giving him seven for the season. He set a career high with 8.5 last season.
• Rookie Robert Quinn had a sack for the second game in a row. He has three for the season.
• Safety Darian Stewart had three passes defensed, a tackle for loss and a forced fumble. He broke up a long pass for tight end Jeff King. Stewart, in his second season, has come on strong lately. He had the clinching interception return for a touchdown against New Orleans last week.
• The Rams' run defense played well for a second week in a row, limiting Beanie Wells to 20 yards on 10 carries.
• The Rams held a 12-minute advantage in time of possession.
• Sam Bradford made it through the game on his injured ankle, passing for 255 yards.

Looking ahead: The Rams visit Cleveland in Week 10.

The St. Louis Rams faced fourth-and-1 against the Arizona Cardinals with 1:48 remaining and the score tied Sunday.

They had failed three times in four chances when facing third- or fourth-and-1 earlier in the game, including on the previous play.

They could have attempted a 51-yard field goal with a kicker, Josh Brown, who had made all three attempts in this game. Brown has also hit 15 of 19 field goals from 50-plus yards since signing with St. Louis.

But if Steven Jackson could reach that first-down marker, the Rams would be in position to take time off the clock before attempting the winning field goal from a shorter distance.

Coach Steve Spagnuolo's decision to go for it backfired when the Cardinals prevented Jackson from adding to his 104-yard rushing total to that point in the game. The Rams wound up getting a second chance as regulation expired, but the Cardinals' Calais Campbell blocked their 42-yard attempt, forcing overtime.

And we all know what happened there.

Jackson has now failed to convert a first down on four consecutive rushing plays when the Rams needed one yard on third or fourth downs. Fullback Brit Miller converted once in two such situations Sunday.

"I felt confident in our best football player getting the ball," Spagnuolo told reporters after the game. "There was still time there, they had no timeouts. I was looking to finish the game on a field goal to win. ... Defensively, we had just come off of a series where we were a little bit tired, a little bit worn down. In hindsight, maybe it was a bad decision."

The decision to run additional time off the clock would have made more sense to me if Kurt Warner or another top quarterback were leading the Cardinals' offense. But with John Skelton starting for the fifth time in his career, Arizona did not seem to present an immediate threat. Then again, Spagnuolo had to know the Cardinals were vulnerable against short-yardage rushing plays, having allowed six conversions in eight chances on third-and-1 before Sunday (Arizona's previous opponents had not carried the ball on fourth-and-1).

Hank Gargiulo of ESPN Stats & Information crunched win-probability numbers for the fourth-and-1 decision and concluded neither choice presented a clear advantage.

The numbers favored Spagnuolo's decision over attempting the field goal, 68.8 percent to 62.2 percent, when plugging in Jackson's career conversion rate on fourth-and-1 (80 percent) and Brown's career rate for 50-plus field-goal tries (68.3 percent). But if we paired the NFL average for fourth-and-1 conversions (70 percent) with Brown's 50-plus percentage as a Ram (78.9 percent), the numbers would favor the field goal, 67 percent to 64.3 percent.

Those percentages aren't compelling enough to outweigh all the variables a coach considers when making such a decision. But the Rams' recent short-yardage failures, the presence of an unproven quarterback on the other team, favorable conditions, Brown's solid kicking Sunday and Brown's career percentage from long range would have led me to favor the field-goal try.

The chart lists the Rams' third- and fourth-and-1 rushing plays this season, including what personnel they used on those plays.

Thoughts on the St. Louis Rams and Arizona Cardinals following the Cardinals' 19-13 victory at University of Phoenix Stadium in Week 9:

What it means: Rookie Patrick Peterson is becoming a legend already after his 99-yard punt return for a touchdown gave the Cardinals an overtime victory. This was his third punt return for a touchdown in eight games and it came when the Cardinals were desperate for a victory. The last time they won, against Carolina in Week 1, his punt return score was the difference. In the bigger picture, this game hurts Arizona's chances for securing a higher choice in the draft, but the payoff was sweet for the Cardinals.

What I liked: Calais Campbell continued to demonstrate his value on the field-goal block team. His third career block made sure the game went to overtime. Campbell also dominated from his spot at right defensive end. The Cardinals got No. 2 receiver Andre Roberts more involved in the offense. Adrian Wilson made an aggressive play in the Rams' backfield to foil a third-and-1 rushing attempt, forcing the Rams to settle for a field goal and a 6-3 lead. Arizona's John Skelton made a good touch pass to Larry Fitzgerald for the tying 13-yard touchdown in the final five minutes. ... Sam Bradford toughed it out on his sprained ankle, a starting point in his return to the Rams' lineup. Steven Jackson continued his physical running and topped 100 yards on the ground for the second week in a row. He has at least 96 yards in three of his last four games and at least 70 in all four. Rams rookie Greg Salas caught seven passes. Rams safety Darian Stewart was again active, getting a hand on passes well down the field.

What I didn't like: Skelton became the first NFL player since Aaron Rodgers in 2008 to take two safeties in the same game. Both were avoidable. Both were costly in a low-scoring game dominated by defense. The Cardinals had 58 yards and four first downs in the first half. Beanie Wells did not appear healthy and had a hard time getting anything going against the Rams' defense. Bradford took too many sacks. Salas suffered what appeared to be a serious leg injury and was carted off the field. Later, medical personnel carted off Cardinals cornerback Michael Adams after a scary collision that appeared to put his head and neck area in jeopardy. Peterson continued having problems with penalties, including with the game on the line.

Controversial call: The Rams went for it on fourth-and-1 from the Arizona 33 with 1:48 remaining and did not get it. They were within range for a 51-yard field-goal attempt. Their kicker, Josh Brown, had made all three attempts Sunday (48, 37, 41 yards). Brown had made 15 of 19 tries from 50-plus yards since signing with the Rams. Field conditions in Arizona appeared excellent. Yes, Jackson was running well, but that was partly because the Rams had done a good job mixing up their play calls. Arizona knew what was coming in this situation. The fact that Arizona blocked the Rams' field-goal try later in the game doesn't validate Steve Spagnuolo's decision.

What's next: The Cardinals face the Eagles in Kevin Kolb's return to Philadelphia. The Rams visit Cleveland.

Five things I noticed while watching the St. Louis Rams during their 24-3 defeat at Green Bay in Week 6:

• Here we go again. The Rams started well on offense. Steven Jackson carried four times for 20 yards on the opening drive. Tight end Lance Kendricks' 45-yard catch-and-run was the key play as St. Louis moved into Packers territory. None of it meant anything when veteran kicker Josh Brown missed wide right from 47 yards. The Rams needed Brown to make that kick. Early setbacks too easily lead winless teams into thinking, "Here we go again." Brown has missed twice in three attempts from 40-49 yards this season. He now has a higher career percentage from 50-plus yards (68.3) than from 40-49 yards (67.9).
• Jason Smith played well. The Rams' right tackle won his matchup with Packers outside linebacker Clay Matthews. The only time Smith wound up on his back was when a teammate inadvertently tripped him while Smith was setting up in protection. Smith showed some nastiness in this game. He went after Matthews through the whistle and stood his ground when Matthews took offense. Mathews did collect a sack late in the game, but Smith got the better of him overall.
• Tight ends still not getting it done. Kendricks' big reception showed the Rams a glimpse of what they can expect from the position for the long term. The Rams aren't getting consistent enough play from their tight ends right now, however. Officials flagged Michael Hoomanawanui for holding Matthews. One of the tight ends was responsible for tripping Smith, the right tackle, on a pass set. Kendricks did not turn back to the ball in time when quarterback Sam Bradford rolled right and threw for him against pressure.
• Picking up the 7-10 split. At age 36, Al Harris is a veteran's veteran among NFL cornerbacks. Turns out the Packers' familiarity with him meant more than his familiarity with the Packers. Aaron Rodgers practiced against Harris for five seasons. He used the experience to his advantage in getting Harris to bite hard on a pump fake, freeing receiver Jordy Nelson for a 93-yard touchdown reception. Darian Stewart hustled over from his safety position to help out, only to overrun the play and take out Harris at the legs. Stewart took out Harris the way one bowling pin takes out another when picking up a split. Harris can be an aggressive corner. NFC West fans might recall him jumping a route for the winning interception against Seattle in a playoff game years ago. Rodgers apparently remembered that, too.
• The Brandon Lloyd trade was a necessity. If the Rams weren't quite sure heading into Week 6, watching receiver Danario Alexander drop what would have been a big gainer over the middle had to nudge them closer to making the deal for Lloyd. With the possible exception of Seattle during Koren Robinson's first few years with the team, I almost cannot recall an NFC West team dropping passes as frequently as the Rams drop them. They have a league-high 15 this season. This team isn't good enough to overcome little things like dropped passes, missed field goals, tight ends tripping tackles, cornerbacks biting hard on pump fakes, etc.

Enjoy your Saturday. I'll post observations from the other recent NFC West games as time permits.

Three games against the NFC East and one against the NFC South threaten the NFC West in Week 4.

Though I've gone 9-1 predicting outcomes for games involving NFC West teams, the one misstep was an easily avoidable one. Picking the Rams to beat Baltimore last week made no sense. I did it because I thought the Rams might rise up at home.

The temptation isn't as strong in Week 4, although the Rams should fare better against the Washington Redskins if Steven Jackson is healthy enough to contribute.

Let's dive right into the predictions before I talk myself into another mistake:

• Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams, 1 p.m. ET: The Rams haven't shown enough firepower. Their defense hasn't played well enough against the run. Three Josh Brown field goals and a touchdown will not be enough. My best guess: Redskins 21, Rams 16.
• San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m. ET: Frank Gore's tender ankle and the Eagles' obvious matchup advantages against the 49ers' receivers stand out right away. The 49ers' defense has been strong, but it'll need more help. My best guess: Eagles 17, 49ers 9.
• Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 ET: The Falcons have outscored opponents 30-0 in fourth quarters this season. The Seahawks have been outscored 36-3 in second quarters so far. Still, the Seahawks' defense gives them a chance at home. My best guess: Falcons 20, Seahawks 17.
• New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 ET: Beanie Wells' return to health is critical for the Cardinals. The physical running he provided was key to beating the Giants on the road in 2009. Much has changed for Arizona since then. This appears to be a tough matchup for their defense. My best guess: Giants 27, Cardinals 20.

That would mark an 0-4 week for the NFC West and four "silver linings" files for Monday. Where am I wrong?