ESPN NFL

Kellen Winslow put together another solid stat line for Tampa Bay last season with 75 receptions, the fourth time in six seasons he had hit that mark.


Winslow, acquired by the Seattle Seahawks on Monday, would shatter single-season team records for tight ends if he approached those numbers in 2012.

For some reason, however, Winslow's production last season wasn't as efficient. His quarterback, Josh Freeman, threw five times as many interceptions as touchdowns when targeting Winslow. Freeman threw more touchdowns than interceptions when targeting other players.

The charts come from John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information.



Winslow and Freeman had a strong rapport previously. It's tough to say what went into the disparate touchdown-to-interception ratio last season. The Bucs suffered through a tough season overall.

The fact that Winslow's knee prevents him from practicing extensively could make it tougher for him to develop a rapport with his new quarterbacks in Seattle. But I've heard some players, including New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning, say it's tough to develop a real rapport outside game situations. Winslow hasn't missed games in recent seasons.

"What happens in a game when things that you prepared for, all of a sudden you get a different technique or something that maybe that hasn't happened before occurs?" Manning said during Super Bowl week. "Can you tell by their body language, by the stem of their route, exactly what they are going to do? You have to scramble or move in the pocket and the timing is a little off, how are they going to react to those situations?"

Justin from Davis, Calif., asks whether there's something more to Alex Smith. Specifically, can he become truly elite? "What is the hope of someone transforming into a superstar quarterback after so many non-performing years?"

Mike Sando: Before analyzing Smith as a player, let's tip our caps to him for helping the coordinated search for a missing Bay Area teenager over the weekend. His presence helped bring awareness to the search beyond whatever direct assistance he provided. That is commendable.

As for your question, Justin, let's more clearly define the word "elite" for these purposes. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees strike me as truly elite quarterbacks. Smith probably is not going to suddenly put up 30-40 touchdown passes per season.

Smith was most remarkable last season for avoiding mistakes. His interception percentage, 1.1, was third-lowest in NFL history for a player with at least 400 pass attempts. His numbers were good -- 17 touchdowns, five interceptions, 90.7 NFL passer rating -- but far from prolific. They were not elite QB numbers. They were smart, cautious numbers.

The percentages say Smith will have a hard time maintaining such a low interception rate. However, I do think it's possible for him to improve upon his 2011 numbers. Matt Cassel is not an elite quarterback, but he had a 27-7 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions in 2010. Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman have put together similar ratios in recent seasons.

The 49ers probably will not ask Smith to carry their team. They will want him to protect the football. But with more opportunistic play in the red zone and improved efficiency on third down, Smith can make progress in 2012.

The San Francisco 49ers defeated the previously 5-0 Detroit Lions on the road after losing a fumble on their first play and never forcing a turnover.

They ground out a 13-8 victory on the road against a rookie quarterback, Andy Dalton.

They won what turned into a 36-32 postseason shootout against the NFL's hottest quarterback, Drew Brees.

They came back from 20 points down in the second half to beat Philadelphia on the road. They ran away from previously 3-1 Tampa Bay to win a blowout, 48-3.

With the 49ers sitting one victory away from the Super Bowl, I went through their games looking for threads tying together their victories and defeats this season.

Turnovers are generally key for any team; the 49ers led the league in differential. But as the game against Detroit demonstrated, the 49ers could beat a good team on the road without prevailing in that pivotal category. That was one of six games this season the 49ers won after trailing in the fourth quarter.

A few things jumped out over the course of the season, counting playoffs:

• The 49ers gave up 20 sacks in their three defeats. That included nine at Baltimore, six against Dallas and five at Arizona. They allowed 28 sacks in their 14 victories.

2011 49ers Opponents: Yards/called pass

QB	Called Pass Avg.	49ers Result
Tony Romo	10.0	Lost
Michael Vick	8.6	Won
John Skelton	7.6	Split
Eli Manning	7.1	Won
Joe Flacco	7.0	Lost
B.Roethlisberger	6.5	Won
Kellen Clemens	6.2	Won
Colt McCoy	5.9	Won
Josh Freeman	5.2	Won
John Beck	5.1	Won
A.J. Feeley	4.8	Won
Andy Dalton	4.5	Won
Matt Stafford	4.4	Won
Tarvaris Jackson	4.0	Won 2





• Attacking the 49ers' pass defense is key. The 49ers' record was 0-2 when allowing more than 8.5 yards per pass attempt and 2-3 when allowing more than 6.6. They were 12-0 when allowing less than that. The 49ers were also 9-0 when collecting at least three sacks. They were 1-2 when opponents completed better than 65 percent of their pass attempts. The Giants' Eli Manning completed 65 percent. The 49ers batted down his final pass to help preserve their 27-20 victory.
• The chart ranks opposing quarterbacks by yards per play when dropping back to pass or scrambling. The quarterbacks ranking near the top generally defeated the 49ers or made them sweat out victories. Dallas connected on long pass plays late to beat San Francisco. Arizona had pass plays for 60, 53 and 46 yards during its victory over the 49ers. The chart shows only regular-season opponents, but the Saints' Drew Brees nearly beat the 49ers with 66- and 44-yard touchdown passes.
• Attacking the 49ers' run defense seems less critical. The 49ers were 12-0 when allowing more than 2.6 yards per rushing attempt. They were 2-3 when allowing less than that. Yes, you read that correctly. They even went 3-1 when allowing 25 or more rushing attempts. They were 11-1 when allowing more than 55 yards rushing, including 4-0 when they allowed more than 92.
• The 49ers were 3-2 when allowing more than 20 points, including 2-1 when they allowed 27 or more. They were 4-0 when allowing more than 20 first downs and 9-1 when allowing more than 16 of them. They were 10-1 when opponents ran at least 60 plays and 4-2 in the other games.
• Venue matters. Alex Smith has 15 touchdown passes, three interceptions and 17 sacks in nine home games. He has five touchdown passes, two interceptions and 31 sacks in eight road games.
• Vernon Davis matters. Davis has 67 receptions for 884 yards and eight touchdowns in the 49ers' 14 victories. He has seven receptions for 88 yards and no touchdowns in three defeats. He averages 2.1 times as many receptions for 2.2 times as many yards in the 49ers' victories.

Those are a few variables I noticed. There are quite a few others, surely. Which ones matter most in your view?

The best NFL quarterbacks are good against standard and added pressure alike.

Aaron Rodgers comes to mind. The Green Bay Packers' quarterback leads the NFL in Total QBR when opponents send four or fewer pass-rushers, and also when they send five or more, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Alex Smith's stronger production against five or more pass-rushers has stood out all season.

• Smith vs. four or fewer rushers: six touchdowns, four interceptions and 16 sacks in 222 dropbacks, with a 47.7 QBR (50 is average) and an 84.7 NFL passer rating.
• Smith vs. five or more: seven touchdowns, one interception and 14 sacks in 106 dropbacks, with a 57.2 QBR and 105.9 NFL rating.

Multiple factors can produce such a disparity. A quick-thinking quarterback armed with a strong game plan and a solid protection scheme can have an advantage against added pressure. Quarterbacks working behind weaker offensive lines could suffer against standard pressure if opponents got to them without sacrificing coverage. Having additional players in coverage affords defenses with additional combinations in coverage, another consideration.

The chart immediately below ranks quarterbacks by the largest QBR disparity when facing five or more pass-rushers vs. four or fewer. Smith and Arizona's Kevin Kolb are among 11 quarterbacks with higher QBR scores against five or more rushers. They have done better against pressure, in theory. Ranking higher on the list isn't necessarily desirable; like Rodgers, a top quarterback should produce in both areas.

Fifty is an average score, with 100 as the limit.

QBR differential is an imperfect measure because point differentials nearer the margins (zero and 100) carry more significance than they do nearer the middle of the range. But the disparities are still helpful in showing how quarterbacks perform, in general, across these situations.

Rex Grossman, who heads the first chart, completed 9 of 12 passes for 117 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions and one sack when the Seahawks sent five or more rushers against him Sunday. He completed 17 of 23 passes for 197 yards with one touchdown, two interceptions and no sacks against standard pressure.

The final chart shows the 22 qualifying quarterbacks with better QBR numbers when facing four or fewer pass-rushers, again ranked by percentage difference.

Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson and St. Louis' Sam Bradford show up on this list. There is Rodgers, down at the bottom, nearly equally strong in each situation.

New York Giants players fielded questions Wednesday about suffering a possible letdown following their comeback victory over the New England Patriots.

The questions seemed unlikely at first, given that the Patriots had a 5-2 record heading into Week 9, whereas the Giants' next opponent, San Francisco, has a won six consecutive games on its way to 7-1. But there's no question the Patriots' success over the years makes them a bigger target, even if the 49ers are playing better right now.

Giants players handled the questions ably.

"I don't think you are ever concerned with a letdown," quarterback Eli Manning told reporters.

Of the 49ers, he said, "This is not a team that we play very often, so we need to learn their personnel, their scheme and learning the plays that we have to run and just be prepared to go out there and play a tough game."

Speaking of Manning, 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh offered specifics on what makes the Giants' quarterback one of the better players at the position. Those comments dovetailed with thoughts from Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc.

"Tremendous arm talent," Harbaugh said. "He has great stature in the pocket. Tremendous vision. Plays very cool. Makes great decisions and does a really good job buying time and gives himself more time to make those cool-headed decisions. Finds quiet spots in the pocket and makes throws that only the best ones in the game can make."

This game will come down to more than the quarterbacks, but the Giants' heavy reliance on Manning will be difficult to overlook. The 49ers have so far fared well against teams built around quarterbacks with the "arm talent" Harbaugh mentioned. They've beaten Michael Vick, Josh Freeman and Matthew Stafford.

Count Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. among those looking forward to the Week 10 game pitting the 6-2 New York Giants against the 7-1 San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park.

I'll be heading down to the Bay Area for that one.

A few notes from my discussion with Williamson on Tuesday ...

Mike Sando: Let's cut right to the important stuff. Who you taking?

Matt Williamson: I like San Francisco. I don't feel super strong about it. They're not going to blow out good teams, but they are so hard to play against. Their front seven, their defense is elite. They will run the ball reasonably well against the Giants. Eli Manning is playing very well. I am curious what the Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw injury situations look like. That is a rough road trip, though. The 49ers are a better team in theory.

Mike Sando: The 49ers did blow out Tampa Bay, 48-3. Would you consider the Buccaneers to be a good team?

Matt Williamson: The Bucs are a mediocre team, a 7-9 or 8-8 team, and they are extremely young.

Mike Sando: The Giants own a couple impressive wins, but when I saw them against Arizona and Seattle, they did not seem as physical as the old NFC East pedigree suggests. Beanie Wells ran all over them. The Seahawks beat them. Seems to me the 49ers will run on them.

Matt Williamson: I was really critical of the Patriots last week for not running more. The Giants are susceptible. You know the Niners are going to come out in double-tight end sets and make them take that run away. The Giants' defense is not very good at the second level. The d-line is exceptional and better against the pass than the run. Their linebackers are awful. Michael Boley is pretty good, but he's a coverage player. I like their secondary.

Mike Sando: I saw an interesting breakdown from ESPN Stats & Information. Manning has been good in most situations and especially good when defenses come after him with five or more pass-rushers. The 49ers rarely have to send added pressure. Are they the perfect defense against Manning?

Matt Williamson: I think they are the perfect defense to beat anybody. I used to think their secondary was a liability, but it's not. Carlos Rogers is very good. Maybe he plays Nicks or Mario Manningham. Those are not terrible matchups for the 49ers with safety support. The big thing about the Giants is that Manning has been able to camouflage their weaknesses. Their offensive line has not played well at all. Their protection is not very good. That is a problem against Justin Smith.

Mike Sando: The idea that Manning is compensating for the Giants' weaknesses on offense comes while the 49ers are getting credit for "hiding" their quarterback, Alex Smith. I'd like your thoughts on the subject.

Matt Williamson: Hiding the quarterback is harder than ever. You cannot do a 2000 Ravens situation as easily now. The 49ers ask very little of Alex Smith. They would be in trouble if they were at Green Bay and down 17-0.

Mike Sando: Wouldn't everyone be in trouble down 17-0 at Green Bay?

Matt Williamson: No doubt, but the 49ers are less equipped than some teams to come from behind against a good opponent. They are efficient. Smith is not making mistakes. Jim Harbaugh has done a tremendous job with him. Smith doesn't throw it very well, but he is smart and mobile. Those are things people liked about him coming out of college. They are rolling him out, protecting him with double-tight end sets, big bodies, and the supporting cast is stepping up. He is throwing reasonably accurately, Michael Crabtree is improving, Frank Gore is playing great, Braylon Edwards could still come on. They mask Smith, but he has done what is asked of him. It's not like a Jets situation where they do everything they can to hide Mark Sanchez and he still makes eight terrible throws in a game, plus three great ones. Smith has not gone above and beyond the call, but he has not needed to. It's like criticizing teams for beating bad teams. They are the teams on the schedule.

Mike Sando: Back to Eli Manning. Like Smith, he was a No. 1 overall pick. Both are winning this season. They have similar NFL passer ratings. Let's discuss the differences.

Matt Williamson: Eli is a much better player, the foundation of that offense. Alex Smith is just a piece. Eli is making a bad offensive line serviceable. They had no Nicks, no Bradshaw last week and he is moving the team with Victor Cruz and Jake Ballard. If Manning and Smith switched teams, the Niners might be the best team in the league with Manning, including better than Green Bay, and the Giants might win two games. Going to New England without Bradshaw and Nix, the Giants would have lost 30-7 if Smith were their quarterback. What those quarterbacks are capable of isn't even close. Smith was not the usual No. 1 overall quarterback in terms of gifts.

Mike Sando: How do those gifts manifest themselves?

Matt Williamson: Someone asked me recently how good Andy Dalton can be. Before the season, I thought there were six elite quarterbacks, including Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning. Matt Ryan was probably No. 7, but he cannot get to six, whereas Sam Bradford or Matthew Stafford or Josh Freeman can. Ryan has gotten everything out of his abilities. That is Dalton to me. He can be a very effective franchise quarterback, but not elite. If anybody is going to break into that elite group, Eli is probably that guy. He can throw off his back foot in the cold and thread the needle 35 yards downfield. Eli can make that throw. Alex Smith cannot. Watch the Super Bowl and Aaron Rodgers makes four throws only a few guys on the planet can make, and that is why they win the game. The crazy, off-balance, rolling out, across his body laser throw. Joe Flacco can make that throw. Alex Smith can never make that throw, and every defensive coordinator in the world knows it.

Mike Sando: True, there are very few "wow" moments watching Smith. But the 49ers are 7-1 with him. There are games when a team needs its quarterback to make the spectacular throw, but many more games when that is not necessary. If the 49ers keep winning, they'll have an interesting decision to make. Smith's playing on a one-year deal.

Matt Williamson: It's like the Ryan Fitzpatrick situation in Buffalo, where things were going so well. Except Fitzpatrick is much streakier. He is a gunslinger without the gunslinger tools. It's tough to be critical if you sign the guy. Things are looking up, you don't want to start over with a rookie or Colin Kaepernick, you're not going to get anyone in free agency, but if you're Buffalo, you still might use a second-round pick on a guy with a big arm. Smith is a tough one, too. He is going to want money and deserve money, but if he goes somewhere else, he could really flop.

Grading Alex Smith's play during the San Francisco 49ers' 6-1 start has become one of the more fascinating pursuits of this 2011 NFC West season.

Smith, long a divisive subject among 49ers fans, remains one even during the team's best start since 1998.

It's easy to see why.

Smith ranks among the top 10 quarterbacks in NFL passer rating. He has led three fourth-quarter comeback victories, all on the road. Yet he ranks only 18th in yards per attempt and 24th in yards per game. And despite occasionally setting a high standard for Total QBR, Smith ranks only 24th in the ESPN statistic measuring how quarterbacks impact their teams' chances for winning.

We've had almost as much fun debating the merits of QBR as we've had debating all things Smith, but any quarterback stat ranking Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees above all others, with Tim Tebow dead last, must be onto something.

Let's set aside the stats for a moment. Fourth-quarter comeback victories have long served as the measure of a quarterback's mettle. Pro Football Reference has done outstanding work in defining and validating them. From their work, we're able to see all fourth-quarter comeback victories for the 49ers since 1960. We can also generate a list for all NFL quarterbacks this season -- a list showing Smith atop the NFL with three, all on the road.

The chart breaks down 2011 fourth-quarter comeback victories by quarterback and venue. Smith and the New York Giants lead the league with three. Smith is the only one with three on the road. A quick look at them:

• At Cincinnati, Week 3: With the 49ers trailing 6-3 in the fourth quarter, Smith completes 4 of 8 passes for 48 yards during a 10-play, 72-yard touchdown drive. The 49ers win the game, 13-8.
• At Philadelphia, Week 4: The 49ers won this one in the fourth quarter on the strength of their running game and defense. Smith completed 9 of 9 passes for 179 yards and two touchdowns in the third quarter, when the 49ers erased most of a 20-point deficit. He completed 4 of 8 passes for 22 yards, no first downs and a sack in the final 15 minutes.
• At Detroit, Week 6: Smith and the passing game struggled most of the way, but with the game on the line, Smith found Delanie Walker for the go-ahead touchdown on a fourth-down play with 1:56 remaining.

Now, on to the chart ...

A few notes and observations regarding how NFC West quarterbacks have performed when under duress, defined by ESPN Stats & Information as situations when defensive pressure forced players to throw early, off-balance or when they were getting hit:

Sam Bradford
#8 QB
St. Louis Rams
2011 STATS
• Att196
• Comp104
• Yds1177
• TD3
• Int2
• Rat72.2
• Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams: Bradford has completed only 5 of 38 passes in these situations. That works out to 13.2 percent, by far the lowest in the league. Oakland's Jason Campbell was next at 22.6 percent before his season-ending injury. Ben Roethlisberger (61.1 percent), Donovan McNabb (54.3), Jay Cutler (50.9) and Cam Newton (50.0) are the only players completing at least half their passes under duress. Dropped passes, covered receivers and holding the ball too long have hurt the Rams. Bradford has been under duress on 25.9 percent of all plays and 18.7 percent of plays featuring pass attempts. Those figures are middle-of-the-pack among players with at least 20 total plays under duress. Two players running versions of the Rams' offense, Tom Brady and Matt Cassel, rank 1-2 in fewest percentage of passes delivered under duress. It's not necessarily the system, in other words. Brady has a lower NFL passer rating than Bradford (30.6 to 39.6) in these situations, having completed 9 of 26 passes for 98 yards and an interception. Cassel's rating (13.5) ranks last in the league. Bradford ranks 32nd out of 34 players (min. 20 plays) in Total QBR (0.5) when under duress. Tony Romo is No. 1 at 46.6. Note that Total QBR figures apply to all plays. I did not ask for separate QBR figures, only those plays featuring pass attempts, only because the stat, by definition, takes into account scrambles, sacks, fumbles, etc.

Kevin Kolb
#4 QB
Arizona Cardinals
2011 STATS
• Att172
• Comp101
• Yds1281
• TD5
• Int6
• Rat77.2
• Kevin Kolb, Arizona Cardinals: Kolb has been under duress on 32.3 percent of all plays and 23.4 percent plays with pass attempts. Both figures are fourth-highest in the NFL. His 69.4 NFL passer rating in these situations ranks ninth in the league. Kolb has completed 19 of 44 passes for 291 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions on these throws. Michael Vick is the only player in the league with as many touchdown passes under duress, but he also has five interceptions. The improbable scoring pass Kolb threw to Larry Fitzgerald at Seattle comes to mind. Mostly because of sacks and fumbles, Kolb ranks only 27th in Total QBR (1.4) among the 34 players with at least 20 total plays under duress. The lesson? Kolb has made some good things happen when under duress. His relatively high passer rating says as much. But there have been too many negative plays. He knows he's not Roethlisberger and said so this week, but sometimes he plays as though he does not know this.

Tarvaris Jackson
#7 QB
Seattle Seahawks
2011 STATS
• Att157
• Comp99
• Yds1012
• TD6
• Int5
• Rat81.0
• Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks: Jackson has completed 12 of 28 passes for 136 yards with one touchdown and one interception when under duress. His 55.1 NFL passer rating when throwing under duress ranks 14th in the league -- ahead of some big names (Matthew Stafford, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Romo, Bradford, Vick, Brady, etc). Eli Manning (95.3) and Matt Hasselbeck (87.1) are exceptions as players with exceptionally high NFL ratings under duress this season. Jackson ranks 12th, right behind Kolb, in completion percentage on these throws. While the sacks Jackson has taken largely explain his 20th-ranked QBR of 3.6 when under duress, 27 of the qualifying 34 players are below 15.0 in QBR in these situations. Even the best quarterbacks tend to struggle when under duress. Minimizing damage is key. Jackson has been under duress on 27.8 percent of all plays, ninth-most in the league. He has taken sacks and generally avoided turnovers, explaining why he has been under duress only 16.8 percent of the time on plays featuring pass attempts. That 16.8 figure is among the 12 lowest in the NFL.

Alex Smith
#11 QB
San Francisco 49ers
2011 STATS
• Att158
• Comp100
• Yds1090
• TD8
• Int2
• Rat95.2
• Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers: When the 49ers were 0-5 last season, Smith was leading the NFL in most pass attempts while throwing under duress, despite taking 10 sacks on these plays. He has attempted 12 fewer passes under duress through one additional game this season, and his NFL passer rating is 61.9, which ranks 12th, as opposed to the 8.1 rating he had while under duress during the 0-5 start. That suggests the 49ers' scheme and play-calling are giving Smith superior options against pressure. Smith has completed 12 of 29 passes for 176 yards when under duress. Smith has been under duress on 26 percent of all plays (13th-most in the league) and 17.6 percent of those featuring pass attempts (20th-most among qualifiers). Even so, Smith's Total QBR for all plays under duress (not just those with pass attempts) lags at 2.5. This is because Smith is tied with Kolb for the worst expected-points figure in the league when it comes to taking sacks (minus-14 points for each player). My feel is that Smith has improved in this area lately.

Seattle's Charlie Whitehurst hasn't played enough to qualify for consideration. Thanks to Marty Callinan of ESPN Stats & Information for providing the numbers. Here's hoping I've explained it well enough to stop your cranium from feeling under duress.

Update: At the outset, I defined duress as plays when defensive pressure forced players to throw early, off-balance or when they were getting hit. Duress also covers non-throwing plays when pressure forced players to scramble or take a sack.

Five things I noticed while watching the San Francisco 49ers' 48-3 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 5:

• Dashon Goldson appears possessed. The 49ers' safety was among quite a few free agents forced to swallow their pride when the post-lockout market failed to materialize as expected. Goldson's loss has been the 49ers' gain. He's playing angry and ticking off opponents with his aggressive play. Goldson decked Bucs receiver Micheal Spurlock after Spurlock got up to chase down 49ers cornerback Chris Culliver during an interception return. He delivered the biggest hit of the game on Bucs receiver Mike Williams, sticking his shoulder in Williams' chest to force a fumble. Goldson drew a penalty for unnecessary roughness early in the fourth quarter.
• Watershed game for the secondary. The 49ers appeared to dive deeper into their playbooks while building up their big lead. They went vanilla later, when the game was decided, coach Jim Harbaugh said. The way the defensive play translated to aggressive, decisive coverage in the secondary stood out from the beginning. Sometimes it seemed as though the 49ers' defensive backs knew their opponents' plays as well as the Bucs knew them. The team finished the game with nine passes defensed, three apiece by Culliver and Tarell Brown. Safety Reggie Smith broke up a pass for Kellen Winslow Jr. Carlos Rogers' interception and 31-yard touchdown return provided another example.
• The run blocking took a step forward. One of the more frustrating plays for the Bucs had to come when the 49ers lined up with two backs and two tight ends on a second-and-15 play. The personnel and I-formation screamed that a running play would likely follow. Tampa Bay put nine defenders in the box (extended beyond the right tackle to account for both tight ends on that side of the formation). Fullback Bruce Miller led into the left side of the offensive line, attracting a crowd. Frank Gore busted up the middle and into the secondary, gaining 18 yards. How frustrating it must be for an opponent when a team lines up in 22 personnel and converts on second-and-15 with a running play up the gut.
• Smith hurt the Bucs multiple ways. One of the Bucs' defensive players complained to 49ers left tackle Joe Staley that quarterback Alex Smith was getting rid of the ball too quickly, making it tough to get sacks (Tampa Bay had none). Smith's three touchdown passes validated the complaints. On the first one, Smith lined up in the shotgun, faked a handoff and threw quickly on perfect rhythm for tight end Delanie Walker. Smith took a three-step drop on his second scoring pass, throwing quickly for Vernon Davis, who broke a tackle at the 8-yard line. Smith used a three-step drop on his third scoring pass as well, this one a quick lob for Davis in the end zone. Smith's footwork and timing were often excellent. He also appeared more instinctive in avoiding pressure. He ducked pressure on one play, tucked the ball away briefly as he escaped and then threw quickly toward the sideline. He missed Walker after scrambling on another play, but he kept his eyes downfield, giving him a chance.
• The Bucs' Sean Jones can expect a fine. The 49ers' Kendall Hunter was clearly down when Jones came rushing into the pile and drove his helmet into Hunter's helmet. The play drew a 15-yard penalty and should appear in future officiating videos as an example of dangerous plays. Hunter was fortunate to emerge with no apparent damage.

I also took a closer look at the sacks Aldon Smith and Justin Smith collected. One came after Josh Freeman held the ball too long. Two others came later in the game, after Justin Smith in particular appeared to have worn down Bucs left tackle Donald Penn. Pressure usually sets up a secondary to make plays, but as noted in the second observation, it seemed like the 49ers' secondary took the lead in this game.

Jim Harbaugh didn't flinch when asked why he would risk injury to receiver Joshua Morgan with a fourth-down pass play while the San Francisco 49ers were leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points with 4:46 remaining.

"You've got to play," Harbaugh said. "You can't take a knee with four minutes left in the game. It could have been a run."

It could have been a field goal try as well.

The 49ers had only four receivers active for the game. Michael Crabtree, Morgan and Ted Ginn Jr. were the ones most important to the 49ers' success. Kyle Williams was the fourth, and in retrospect, the team would have been better off with Williams in the game at that point, particularly after Harbaugh had removed starting quarterback Alex Smith from the game with nearly a full quarter remaining.

Self-preservation was clearly on the coach's mind, to some degree.

Any quibbling over how to handle personnel during the final minutes of a 48-3 victory shows how far the 49ers have come from last season, when they suffered a 21-0 home defeat against a very similar Bucs team.

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee says the broken ankle Morgan suffered will likely force the 49ers to sign another player at the position while Braylon Edwards also recovers from injury. Barrows: "Three veteran receivers went through training camp with the 49ers: Lance Long, Dominique Zeigler and Kevin Jurovich. All three are available. The team also has two receivers on the practice squad, rookie Joe Hastings and veteran John Matthews. Matthews was signed last week. But he played for Harbaugh at the University of San Diego and is familiar with the offense. The 49ers also have been giving tryouts to receivers throughout the season. One of the receivers who worked out for the team, Donnie Avery, was signed by Tennessee."

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com says the 49ers' offensive line has shown great improvement over the past two games. As left tackle Joe Staley said a couple weeks back: "Contrary to what everybody believes, we don't suck."

Also from Maiocco: It's tough to question Carlos Rogers' hands after his 31-yard interception return gave the 49ers a 14-3 lead Sunday.

Ray Ratto of CSNBayArea.com counts the ways the 49ers' victory broke from convention, highlighted by Harbaugh's comment about how Al Davis would have been proud of the way the team played. Ratto: "The 49ers are, for the moment, one of the seven best teams in the NFL by record. There have been years when they haven’t been one of the top 27. So here’s to Al Davis, who would be proud as hell of the boys ... except that he wouldn’t be ... and wouldn’t actually give a damn, since the two teams don’t play again for the foreseeable."

Alex Espinoza of 49ers.com notes that the team has allowed six points in its last six quarters.

Grant Cohn of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat offers the 49ers straight A's on their postgame report card.

Lowell Cohn of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat gives the 49ers coaching staff credit for the team's reversal.

Cam Inman of the Contra Costa Times quotes Bucs quarterback Josh Freeman as saying the 49ers possess the best defensive front seven they'll face all season.

Mark Emmons of the San Jose Mercury News says it's obviously premature to write off Frank Gore.

Monte Poole of Bay Area News Groups says the 49ers are believing in themselves thanks to Harbaugh.

Quarterbacks' recent grip on the NFL's Most Valuable Player Award could be slipping.

Peyton Manning's precarious health situation heading toward the Indianapolis Colts' 2011 opener leaves him ranked only 10th on our initial MVP Watch of the season.

It's nearly unfathomable.

Manning has won four of the last nine MVP awards in Associated Press balloting. Tom Brady commanded 99 of 100 votes in winning the 2007 and 2010 awards. He's the favorite this year, but if Manning fails to recapture his usual form after missing the exhibition season, non-quarterbacks can feel better about their chances.

Running backs LaDainian Tomlinson (2006), Shaun Alexander (2005) and Marshall Faulk (2000) are the only non-quarterbacks to win the award since 2000.

Defensive lineman Alan Page, kicker Mark Moseley and linebacker Lawrence Taylor defied the MVP odds even more improbably. They won the NFL's highest individual honor without handling the football regularly as a quarterback or running back. They were the exceptions since the Associated Press began naming MVPs back in 1957.

Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson are the only non-quarterbacks appearing on the initial MVP Watch this season. I'll be watching Ben Roethlisberger, Josh Freeman, Clay Matthews Jr., Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and others during Week 1.

Who else deserves early consideration? Rotating additional players through the rankings will be a priority.

Five things to know about the San Francisco 49ers, straight from our newly published 2011 preview:

1. The clock starts anew: As frustrating as the past decade has been for 49ers fans and the organization as a whole, none of that serves as a relevant reference point for Jim Harbaugh. This will be a season of discovery for him. If the team reaches the playoffs, great. But the Harbaugh era is only beginning and there is much to figure out, starting at quarterback.

2. Patience is the name of the game: The 49ers could have drafted Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert or Christian Ponder with the seventh overall choice. All three quarterbacks went in the five slots immediately after the 49ers made outside linebacker Aldon Smith the seventh overall choice. After the draft, the 49ers could have engaged Arizona in a bidding war for Kevin Kolb. They passed. Harbaugh was content grabbing Colin Kaepernick in the second round and bringing back Alex Smith for a seventh season with the team. The 49ers showed patience again during free agency, reaching into the bargain bin while letting some of their own starters sign elsewhere uncontested. They appear to be in no rush.

3. The running game is king: The 49ers' lack of urgency at quarterback could at least partially reflect their desire to lean hard on the ground game. In that respect, the philosophy hasn't changed much from Mike Singletary to Harbaugh. San Francisco will continue to emphasize a power scheme on offense. Harbaugh brings many more variations within the running game. He's installing a short-passing game that will give Smith bailout options should he find no one open on vertical routes. But running the football will remain the top priority. Frank Gore has a new contract and should be happy about his role in the offense. He's going to get the ball plenty this season.

4. Braylon Edwards is an X factor: The one-handed, diving grab Edwards made for a 32-yard gain during preseason trumped any catch I can recall a 49ers wideout making in recent seasons. It was the sort of play the 49ers badly need their receivers to make. Smith isn't an elite quarterback. He isn't going to elevate the play of those around him. He needs playmakers to make him look better. Edwards has shown he has the ability to do that. His addition gives the team another big target with the physical traits to stretch a defense. Tight end Vernon Davis had been the only 49ers player with that ability

5. The defense is surprisingly new: Nate Clements, Aubrayo Franklin, Manny Lawson, Travis LaBoy, Takeo Spikes and Taylor Mays figured prominently into the 49ers' defensive plans at various points last season. None remains with the team. The middle of the defense has a fresh look with Isaac Sopoaga moving to nose tackle, NaVorro Bowman replacing Spikes at inside linebacker and the 49ers making a concerted effort to build depth at safety. Most changes were designed to upgrade the pass defense. Opposing quarterbacks Tony Romo, Michael Vick, Josh Freeman and Matthew Stafford will put those changes to the test before the 49ers hit their bye in Week 7.

Thoughts on the Arizona Cardinals after checking out ESPN's 300 highest-rated fantasy players for the 2011 season:

Arizona Cardinals running back Beanie Wells became more valuable from a fantasy standpoint once a knee injury knocked out Ryan Williams for the season. Wells figures to get most rushing attempts for Arizona if healthy.

Larry Fitzgerald was only the sixth-ranked receiver from a fantasy standpoint, trailing Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Greg Jennings, Hakeem Nicks and Calvin Johnson. I could see Fitzgerald's touchdown total spiking now that Derek Anderson, John Skelton and Max Hall are not his primary quarterbacks.

Kevin Kolb ranked only 18th among fantasy quarterbacks, just ahead of the New York Jets' Mark Sanchez. He's already shown an eagerness to force the ball to Fitzgerald, with encouraging results.

The No. 18 ranking seems a bit low for a quarterback with Fitzgerald at the ready, but in looking at the names above Kolb on the list, the ranking seems about right.

Aaron Rodgers, Michael Vick, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Ben Roethlisberger, Josh Freeman, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Sam Bradford, Jay Cutler, Matt Cassell and Matthew Stafford rank ahead of Kolb.

Unranked Cardinals sleeper: Rookie tight end Rob Housler. The third-round draft choice needs seasoning as a blocker. He has flashed ability as a receiver through two preseason games. Crowding at the position will hurt him, however. Todd Heap and Jeff King give the Cardinals veteran options. They have a combined 16 touchdown receptions over the last two seasons.

.

The late Don Smith never claimed his passer-rating formula was perfect.

Quite the opposite, in fact.

"Some people call it a quarterback rating system, but that really is not what it is," Smith told me during a 2002 interview. "It’s simply a passing statistic."

I've actually defended Smith's rating system because the quarterbacks with the highest ratings -- Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers led the way last season -- usually are the best quarterbacks. But there's so much more to quarterbacking than passing stats for touchdowns, interceptions, attempts, completions and yardage.

Game situations should count for something, and now they do.

With input from football people, including ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer, our statistical analysts have developed a 100-point ratings scale for quarterbacks taking into account advanced stats, game situations and relevant non-passing stats, including fumbles and sacks, to evaluate quarterbacks far more thoroughly. The methodology is complex -- one of the formula's key algorithms spans some 10,000 lines -- but the resulting "Total Quarterback Rating" (QBR for short) beats the old passer rating in every conceivable fashion. The ratings scale will debut this season.

I've been bugging the Stats & Information team for a sneak peak ever since learning former NBA statistical analyst Dean Oliver had joined our production analytics unit and was playing a prominent role in QBR development. Oliver, a Caltech grad with a Ph.D. in statistical applications, revolutionized how NBA teams use advanced statistics. Menlo College professor Ben Alamar, who has consulted with the San Francisco 49ers, is also part of the team.

Our stats team has been using game video to track stats relating to pressure, personnel, formation, game situation and more since 2008. The QBR stat represents a significant leap in harnessing those statistics for something more.

The old formula Smith created treated stats the same regardless of circumstance. A touchdown pass thrown against a prevent defense during a blowout defeat equals one thrown against pressure to win the game. A 5-yard completion on third-and-4 counts the same as a 5-yarder on third-and-15. A critical quarterback scramble, sack or fumble doesn't even factor.

"There is no way to statistically say how effective a guy is under fire," Smith lamented during our 2002 conversation. "None of that can be put into something like this."

Now it can, along with a whole lot more.

The QBR formula takes into account down, distance, field position, time remaining, rushing, passing sacks, fumbles, interceptions, how far each pass travels in the air, from where on the field the ball was thrown, yards after the catch, dropped balls, defensed balls, whether the quarterback was hit, whether he threw away the ball to avoid a sack, whether the pass was thrown accurately, etc. Each play carries "clutch weight" based on its importance to game outcome, as determined by analyzing those 60,000 plays since 2008. The stats adjust for quarterbacks facing an unusually high number of these situations.

"If it is a running clock late in the game, maybe you only get a few yards here or there, that is the right football play to make," Jeff Bennett, senior director of ESPN's production analytics team, said Sunday. "We spent a month learning about ratings to make sure quarterbacks couldn’t game the system, so they're not afraid to throw that deep pass at the end of the first half and risk an interception."

I've seen an outline for the rating system breaking down 2010 quarterbacks into six general categories, from top tier to poor. Precise rating numbers were not yet available. The quarterbacks under consideration broke down as follows:

• Top tier: Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, Rodgers and Drew Brees.
• Well above average: Josh Freeman, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers.
• Above average: Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, David Garrard and Kerry Collins.
• Around average: Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton and Jon Kitna.
• Below average: Shaun Hill, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith.
• Poor: Derek Anderson, Brett Favre and Jimmy Clausen.

ESPN plans to enlist several quarterbacks when introducing the stat during an hour-long "SportsCenter" special Friday at 8 p.m. ET. We'll be referencing the stat on the blogs and elsewhere. Bennett said he's allocating enough manpower to produce ratings on game days, a huge help for those of us analyzing player performances shortly after games.

"We want to reward a good football play," Bennett said.

Jesse Reynolds, an Arizona Cardinals fan deadlocked in a debate over quarterbacks, turned this way for a resolution.

"I have searched everywhere but haven't been able to find the data that supports (or contradicts) my argument that the Cardinals were one of the most-blitzed teams last year because no one feared our quarterbacks," Jesse wrote to me via Facebook. "Could you help find the numbers? I'm sure other NFC West teams' fans would love to know their numbers, too."

Blitz numbers usually tell us which defenses were more aggressive. But if we flipped our perspective, as Jesse suggested, we could find out which quarterbacks commanded the most respect, at least by this measure. Where to turn? Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Information put me in touch with colleague Jason Starrett, who came through with numbers for all 32 teams and for 40 individual quarterbacks.

Thanks to Jason, Jesse is going to win his argument by a knockout.

Opponents blitzed the Cardnials 37.2 percent of the time overall, the sixth-highest percentage in the league. Oakland (39.8), St. Louis (39.4), Chicago (38.4), Carolina (37.5) and Baltimore (37.5) faced blitzes more frequently.

We defined blitzes as plays when defenses rushed five or more defenders.

As the first chart shows, Max Hall, John Skelton, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford -- all rookies playing for losing teams season -- faced blitzes most frequently.

As the second chart shows, five highly experienced quarterbacks -- Peyton Manning, Jake Delhomme, Drew Brees, Matt Hasselbeck and Tom Brady -- faced blitzes least frequently.

Hall and Skelton combined to start seven games for Arizona. Teammate Derek Anderson ranked 17th among the 40 players listed in terms of being blitzed most frequently.

In looking at the charts, a few names showed up in surprising places.

The San Francisco 49ers' Smith ranked higher than expected on the list of quarterbacks facing blitzes less frequently. Was he really "commanding respect" the way Brady commanded respect? Of course not. Does he really qualify as a wily veteran such as Delhomme or Hasselbeck? The answer is "no" on that front as well.

Likewise, quarterbacks such as Hill and Henne wouldn't provide a strong deterrent to blitzing, would they? Why would Green Bay's Rodgers face blitzes more frequently than them?

Other variables come into play. Some teams blitz more frequently than others regardless of opponent. A quarterback facing these teams more frequently would see his numbers shift accordingly.

How well an offensive line picks up blitzes could influence how a defense attacks. How well receivers adjust to blitzes could matter, as could the confidence a defensive coordinator has in his secondary during a given week. A quarterback's running ability and ability to read defenses accurately could factor.

Overall, I'd say it's telling to see the Cardinals' Hall and Skelton blitzed so frequently, particularly relative to the numbers for the more experienced Anderson. It's also telling to see some highly experienced quarterbacks blitzed so infrequently by comparison.