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Randy Moss' impressive offseason with the San Francisco 49ers continues, generating positive reviews.

"The first day, it was surreal out there throwing balls to him," quarterback Alex Smith said. "The physical skills everybody knows. The thing you appreciate a lot is the guy's a true pro. He's played a lot of football. He's incredibly smart out there."

If this sounds familiar, it should.

With Moss, it's often about impressive debuts and new beginnings. Sometimes, he sticks around and produces, as the case was with New England. Other times, the initial impressions do not foreshadow future results.

Moss impressed the Oakland Raiders when he joined them by trade from Minnesota in 2005. That situation did not work out well (the Raiders obviously deserve some of the blame).

"I thought Randy was outstanding," Norv Turner, then the Raiders' coach, said after Moss' first couple practices with the team. "He got in yesterday afternoon late and we put a lot of offense in today and we have a lot going in this weekend. He handled it extremely well. It's a whole different system than he's been around. He went out and relaxed and obviously he can run and catch and do those things. He looked very comfortable to me."

Moss impressed the New England Patriots when he joined them by trade from Oakland in 2007. Moss played very well for the Patriots before his time with the team ran its course.

"Tom Brady has heard the critics who expect Moss to bring more baggage to the Patriots than a hotel valet would," The New York Times wrote back when Moss joined New England. "But so far, Brady has been impressed, and Moss looked explosive during Wednesday’s workout. During one portion of practice, Brady and Moss stood off to the side by themselves, talking and throwing a football, part of the working bond they hope to create."

Moss impressed the Vikings when he rejoined them by trade from the Patriots in 2010. Moss wound up making little impact (the Vikings, like the Raiders, had their own issues).

"He's had a whirlwind week-and-a-half catching up on a new playbook, and the Vikings were quite pleased with his performance against the New York Jets last week despite the lack of familiarity," the Associated Press reported. "The coaches have noted progress in practice this week, believing he'll be able to be more comfortable with his routes without having to stop and think too much about his assignment."

Moss impressed the Tennessee Titans when he joined their team off waivers in 2011. He made almost no impact with the team on the field, however.

"When Randy Moss comes into your locker room, he brings something. Guys are seeing that and responding to it," Kerry Collins, then a Titans quarterback, told reporters. "The biggest thing is just the way he's working. You never judge a book by what you hear. You wait and see what a guy is about. He's come in here with a great attitude and ready to work. The guy just wants to win. Period. The end. He'll do whatever it takes to make that happen."

Moss impressed the New Orleans Saints during a workout in 2012. They did not sign him, however.

"Moss had an off-the-charts workout at the Saints facility this morning," sportsNOLA.com reported. "The 35-year old Moss reportedly performed the 40-yard dash in the 4.39 to 4.4 range and ran routes while hauling in nearly 50 passes. One source described Moss as being more impressive than anticipated, saying that he is in great shape."

And, of course, Moss is impressing the 49ers this offseason. The situation in San Francisco appears more stable than the ones in Oakland or Minnesota (the second time). Perhaps the results will be better as well.

Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. breaks down the San Francisco 49ers' game against the Cleveland Browns from just about every angle in his Insider scouting report.

I followed up with him on the phone Friday for thoughts on matchups involving the two best players on the field Sunday: Browns left tackle Joe Thomas and 49ers defensive end Justin Smith. Williamson ranks Smith among the 10 best players in the NFL regardless of position. He ranks Thomas among the top 50.

Matt Williamson: Thomas is playing really well -- not as well as he has in the past, but he's in the conversation for best left tackle. He is a great left tackle without any weaknesses. There is no certain type of player Thomas does well against. He does well against everybody, but so does Justin Smith.

Mike Sando: What should we expect Sunday?

Matt Williamson: Smith is a better player than Thomas, a top 10 guy. But the 49ers' front looks like a 5-2 on early downs and Thomas will be blocking the outside linebacker, which is exactly what San Francisco wants. If the 49ers can get Ray McDonald and Smith on either one of the Browns' guards, they are going to torment them. This will not be like Dwight Freeney against Joe Thomas all game because Smith moves around.

Mike Sando: Sounds like this could be a quieter game for 49ers rookie outside linebacker Aldon Smith, assuming Smith winds up matched against Thomas a fair amount.

Matt Williamson: Thomas against any of their outside linebackers has a distinct advantage, and I like the 49ers' outside linebackers. Great left tackles rarely get beat. I could see this not being a big Aldon Smith game. The 49ers' speed should give Tony Pashos some problems at right tackle, though. Pashos is a heavier footed mauler type. He will do better against McDonald than any of the edge players there.

Mike Sando: What's your take on the game overall?

Matt Williamson: Cleveland's offense is so inept. I don't know that San Francisco is going to beat them 30-0, though. It's probably going to be closer even though San Francisco will control the whole game, most likely. Colt McCoy's yards per attempt are about the worst in the league (only Kerry Collins is worse in this category). The Browns have no vertical dimension to their offense.

The Buffalo Bills did not suddenly field a roster packed with perennial Pro Bowl linemen.

Their quarterback, Ryan Fitzpatrick, has nonetheless taken only two sacks in 147 drop backs.

I ran across this improbable stat when researching for the next MVP Watch item. It reinforced the idea that sacks, which are often drive killers, reflect so much more than a line's ability to prevent them.

The list of players with the fewest sacks in a season (minimum 300 pass attempts) features almost exclusively players lacking the raw speed or athletic ability to avoid defenders. Dan Marino, Mark Rypien, Kerry Collins, Joey Harrington and Troy Aikman are the only players in the sack era (since 1982) with at least 300 attempts and fewer than 10 sacks in a season.

The system a team runs, the receivers a team has and the decisions a quarterback makes also play prominently into the totals.

We're seeing that in the NFC West through four games.

The St. Louis Rams' Sam Bradford is on pace for 72 sacks, which would tie Randall Cunningham for the second-highest total in a season since sacks became an official stat in 1982. He's learning a new system featuring deeper drop backs and slower-developing routes, all while playing without his most dependable receiver. Bad combination.

San Francisco's Alex Smith (14 sacks), Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson (14) and Arizona's Kevin Kolb (12) rank among the seven most-sacked quarterbacks in the NFL this season. NFC West starters have taken 58 sacks, with Rams backup A.J. Feeley also taking one. Line issues have played larger roles for Smith and Jackson, in my view. Kolb's feel for the pocket hasn't seemed strong enough, possibly a reflection of his inexperience and learning a new offense.

Sacks were down for Smith (three in 36 drop backs) and Jackson (zero in 38, against an Atlanta defense that now has no sacks in its past three games) in Week 4. The Rams are off this week, but the other NFC West teams rank among the 15 teams with at least 10 sacks so far this season. This will be a theme for the division in Week 5.

One game between the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks will not determine which team was smartest regarding its approach to quarterback Kevin Kolb.

It'll help frame the conversation in the short term, however.

So far, Kolb has looked like a player the Seahawks could very much use behind center. He has completed 61.4 percent of his passes while averaging 9.8 yards per attempt, with four touchdowns, one interception and an NFL passer rating of 110.3. Five sacks and two turnovers, both committed when the Cardinals were in scoring range during close games, dragged down his QBR to 48.5 -- slightly below average, but still better than Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger and 11 other starters.

The Seahawks' Tarvaris Jackson is averaging 5.4 yards per attempt with 10 sacks, an 80.1 NFL passer rating and a 23.3 QBR that ranks 29th, lower than every quarterback except Matt Cassel, Kerry Collins and Luke McCown.

Dave Boling of the Tacoma News Tribune puts it this way: Jackson has not yet been the answer to the many problems the Seahawks have on offense, but he’s not been the most obvious limiting factor, either.

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times uses a marital analogy for the situation: "If committing to a franchise quarterback is like tying the knot, the Cardinals have taken the plunge while the Seahawks aren't even in an exclusive relationship yet. They acquired Charlie Whitehurst last year and added Jackson this year, but both were two-year deals as opposed to the kind of long-term commitment Arizona made in Kolb."

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com says the way Kolb hung tough, risking his health to complete a 73-yard touchdown pass to Larry Fitzgerald in Week 2, showed teammates why Arizona was so eager to acquire Kolb from Philadelphia during the offseason. Fitzgerald: "All the guys in the locker room know how Kevin is. He’s willing to take the big shot for the team. Everyone saw his helmet get knocked off. He’s a fierce competitor who’ll do anything to make this team go." Noted: Having Fitzgerald on his side gives Kolb an advantage Jackson and quite a few other quarterbacks do not enjoy. There is a chance, however, that Jackson could have for the first time this season a receiver with at least some of the physical gifts Fitzgerald offers an offense.

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com says Sidney Rice made it through his first practice of the 2010 season amid fears the fourth-year wide receiver might need surgery to repair a torn labrum. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell: "One player can have an effect on your offense. Sidney brings juice and he brings some excitement. He brings the deep threat that you’re looking for just to back people off. When he’s in there, you always have that threat. So it definitely can help." Noted: The Seahawks' longest completed pass covered 17 yards during a 24-0 defeat at Pittsburgh in Week 2. Rice has averaged better than 17.0 yards per reception across nine of the 43 games in which he has at least one catch. His team posted a 7-2 record in those games. Yes, the Seahawks could use that type of production.

Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says postgame meetings between Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo and team owner Stan Kroenke do not reflect negatively on Spagnuolo. Miklasz: "The owner-coach summit didn't mean that Kroenke was irate at his coach, or that he snapped at his coach, or that he's turned on his coach, or that he's going to fire his coach. What hasn't been pointed out is that Kroenke also visits with Spagnuolo after the Rams win a game. And yes, Spagnuolo needs to win more games. Definitely. But it's absurd for a reasonable person to conclude that Spagnuolo is squirming on the proverbial 'hot seat' and in any real danger of losing his job only 34 games into a massive rebuild."

Kathleen Nelson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Giants' Deon Grant denies faking injury against the Rams on Monday night. I'll have a couple thoughts on this one as part of a "five observations" item on the Rams later Thursday.

Roger Hensley of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch asks colleagues whether the Rams are being too cautious with receiver Danario Alexander. Jim Thomas: "Alexander has a chronic knee condition, meaning it’s not going to get any better. Five surgeries on the same knee is a lot. So if you want to run him into the ground, go ahead, and he’ll be back in surgery in a couple weeks. If you want to get anything out of him for any extended period of time – like an entire season, for instance – rather than treating him as a disposable object, you’re going to have to manage the knee, manage the reps and treat him differently than other players."

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com says the concussion Alex Smith suffered against Dallas was the first one of record during the quarterback's seven-year career. Maiocco: "Smith was sacked six times in the game but did not report any problems to the team's medical staff during the game. It is not known when Smith sustained the concussion. But before leaving Candlestick Park, he checked in with Jeff Ferguson, 49ers director of football operations and sports medicine, and informed him that he didn't feel right. The 49ers placed him through tests, which revealed Smith had sustained a concussion, the team said Wednesday evening."

Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News offers thoughts on a range of 49ers-related issues. There was also this from Smith on Vernon Davis' role: "I think Vernon’s always going to be a focal point of our pass game. It just depends on the flow of the game, how teams treat him. We play some teams and Vernon gets a lot of attention, especially when he’s running. I think you take a lot at the touchdown pass to Delanie, I mean, Vernon’s what makes that play go. Him running down the field eats up two guys and all of a sudden Delanie’s one-on-one. So he’s always going to be a focal point. The type of player he is, the skill-set he has, you can’t afford not to have him as a focal point. I just think it’s one of these things, you’d like to have him more involved, getting more touches, but just the way the game went, that’s the way it happens sometimes."

Unsettled quarterback situations elsewhere in the NFC West made the St. Louis Rams a logical early favorite to win the division in 2011.

The Rams had the very promising Sam Bradford, after all, while the rest of the West was going through quarterback identity crises.

Extensive field testing has shown that peppering a well-informed San Francisco 49ers fan with such logic can produce entertaining (for the rest of us) results. The embattled 49ers fan, no matter how repulsed by the thought of another season with Alex Smith behind center, will sometimes retrieve from his statistical weapons cache this improbable bombshell: Smith was the highest-rated passer in the division last season.

And it's true. Smith finished the 2010 season with a borderline-respectable 82.1 rating, even though his team struggled to a 6-10 record. Bradford's rating was 76.5, with Matt Hasselbeck at 73.2. But what if we viewed these players' contributions through the new "Total Quarterback Rating" (QBR) tool set to launch for the upcoming season?

I do not yet have all the details on how the formula works -- ESPN will discuss those in depth during a "SportsCenter" special Friday -- but I did secure QBR numbers for a few quarterbacks relevant to this discussion. QBR evaluates quarterbacks on a 100-point scale, reflecting how a quarterback's performance on each play affects game outcomes.

In preparing this item, I asked ESPN Stats & Information for examples of quarterbacks with similar passer ratings and disparate QBR numbers. We might then better illustrate how passer rating differs from QBR. Smith and Tennessee's Kerry Collins provided one such example. Their passer ratings were nearly identical, but Collins scored much higher in QBR.

Collins' 56.0 rating in the new metric was six points higher than the average established by all quarterbacks across roughly 60,000 plays since 2008. Smith was well below average in QBR at 40.0, affirming what I suspect most of us intuitively know about these quarterbacks. In this example, the QBR seems quite helpful.

Smith took sacks at a higher rate than Collins. They threw interceptions at a nearly identical rate, but the QBR formula considered Smith's interceptions far more costly to his team, according to Alok Pattani, one of two analytics specialists assigned to the QBR project. QBR also viewed Bradford and Hasselbeck more favorably than it viewed Smith.

In another example, QBR rated Peyton Manning much higher than it rated Matt Schaub last season, even though Schaub finished with a slightly higher passer rating (92.0 to 91.9). Schaub took twice as many sacks while fumbling three times as frequent.

Manning's QBR was 69.5, right around where we might expect a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback to rate. Schaub's QBR was 57.8, above average but not as high as his passer rating ranked in relation to other quarterbacks.

On Bradford, I'm interested in knowing more about how his depleted receiving corps affects his standing in QBR. While he was better than Smith in QBR, I anticipated a greater margin. Bradford ran out of weapons at receiver and leaned heavily on short passes with little potential. Likewise, the challenges Seattle faced on its offensive line put Hasselbeck at a severe disadvantage, I thought. These are all things to explore once QBR makes its formal debut Friday.

The late Don Smith never claimed his passer-rating formula was perfect.

Quite the opposite, in fact.

"Some people call it a quarterback rating system, but that really is not what it is," Smith told me during a 2002 interview. "It’s simply a passing statistic."

I've actually defended Smith's rating system because the quarterbacks with the highest ratings -- Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers led the way last season -- usually are the best quarterbacks. But there's so much more to quarterbacking than passing stats for touchdowns, interceptions, attempts, completions and yardage.

Game situations should count for something, and now they do.

With input from football people, including ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer, our statistical analysts have developed a 100-point ratings scale for quarterbacks taking into account advanced stats, game situations and relevant non-passing stats, including fumbles and sacks, to evaluate quarterbacks far more thoroughly. The methodology is complex -- one of the formula's key algorithms spans some 10,000 lines -- but the resulting "Total Quarterback Rating" (QBR for short) beats the old passer rating in every conceivable fashion. The ratings scale will debut this season.

I've been bugging the Stats & Information team for a sneak peak ever since learning former NBA statistical analyst Dean Oliver had joined our production analytics unit and was playing a prominent role in QBR development. Oliver, a Caltech grad with a Ph.D. in statistical applications, revolutionized how NBA teams use advanced statistics. Menlo College professor Ben Alamar, who has consulted with the San Francisco 49ers, is also part of the team.

Our stats team has been using game video to track stats relating to pressure, personnel, formation, game situation and more since 2008. The QBR stat represents a significant leap in harnessing those statistics for something more.

The old formula Smith created treated stats the same regardless of circumstance. A touchdown pass thrown against a prevent defense during a blowout defeat equals one thrown against pressure to win the game. A 5-yard completion on third-and-4 counts the same as a 5-yarder on third-and-15. A critical quarterback scramble, sack or fumble doesn't even factor.

"There is no way to statistically say how effective a guy is under fire," Smith lamented during our 2002 conversation. "None of that can be put into something like this."

Now it can, along with a whole lot more.

The QBR formula takes into account down, distance, field position, time remaining, rushing, passing sacks, fumbles, interceptions, how far each pass travels in the air, from where on the field the ball was thrown, yards after the catch, dropped balls, defensed balls, whether the quarterback was hit, whether he threw away the ball to avoid a sack, whether the pass was thrown accurately, etc. Each play carries "clutch weight" based on its importance to game outcome, as determined by analyzing those 60,000 plays since 2008. The stats adjust for quarterbacks facing an unusually high number of these situations.

"If it is a running clock late in the game, maybe you only get a few yards here or there, that is the right football play to make," Jeff Bennett, senior director of ESPN's production analytics team, said Sunday. "We spent a month learning about ratings to make sure quarterbacks couldn’t game the system, so they're not afraid to throw that deep pass at the end of the first half and risk an interception."

I've seen an outline for the rating system breaking down 2010 quarterbacks into six general categories, from top tier to poor. Precise rating numbers were not yet available. The quarterbacks under consideration broke down as follows:

• Top tier: Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, Rodgers and Drew Brees.
• Well above average: Josh Freeman, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers.
• Above average: Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, David Garrard and Kerry Collins.
• Around average: Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton and Jon Kitna.
• Below average: Shaun Hill, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith.
• Poor: Derek Anderson, Brett Favre and Jimmy Clausen.

ESPN plans to enlist several quarterbacks when introducing the stat during an hour-long "SportsCenter" special Friday at 8 p.m. ET. We'll be referencing the stat on the blogs and elsewhere. Bennett said he's allocating enough manpower to produce ratings on game days, a huge help for those of us analyzing player performances shortly after games.

"We want to reward a good football play," Bennett said.

Jesse Reynolds, an Arizona Cardinals fan deadlocked in a debate over quarterbacks, turned this way for a resolution.

"I have searched everywhere but haven't been able to find the data that supports (or contradicts) my argument that the Cardinals were one of the most-blitzed teams last year because no one feared our quarterbacks," Jesse wrote to me via Facebook. "Could you help find the numbers? I'm sure other NFC West teams' fans would love to know their numbers, too."

Blitz numbers usually tell us which defenses were more aggressive. But if we flipped our perspective, as Jesse suggested, we could find out which quarterbacks commanded the most respect, at least by this measure. Where to turn? Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Information put me in touch with colleague Jason Starrett, who came through with numbers for all 32 teams and for 40 individual quarterbacks.

Thanks to Jason, Jesse is going to win his argument by a knockout.

Opponents blitzed the Cardnials 37.2 percent of the time overall, the sixth-highest percentage in the league. Oakland (39.8), St. Louis (39.4), Chicago (38.4), Carolina (37.5) and Baltimore (37.5) faced blitzes more frequently.

We defined blitzes as plays when defenses rushed five or more defenders.

As the first chart shows, Max Hall, John Skelton, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford -- all rookies playing for losing teams season -- faced blitzes most frequently.

As the second chart shows, five highly experienced quarterbacks -- Peyton Manning, Jake Delhomme, Drew Brees, Matt Hasselbeck and Tom Brady -- faced blitzes least frequently.

Hall and Skelton combined to start seven games for Arizona. Teammate Derek Anderson ranked 17th among the 40 players listed in terms of being blitzed most frequently.

In looking at the charts, a few names showed up in surprising places.

The San Francisco 49ers' Smith ranked higher than expected on the list of quarterbacks facing blitzes less frequently. Was he really "commanding respect" the way Brady commanded respect? Of course not. Does he really qualify as a wily veteran such as Delhomme or Hasselbeck? The answer is "no" on that front as well.

Likewise, quarterbacks such as Hill and Henne wouldn't provide a strong deterrent to blitzing, would they? Why would Green Bay's Rodgers face blitzes more frequently than them?

Other variables come into play. Some teams blitz more frequently than others regardless of opponent. A quarterback facing these teams more frequently would see his numbers shift accordingly.

How well an offensive line picks up blitzes could influence how a defense attacks. How well receivers adjust to blitzes could matter, as could the confidence a defensive coordinator has in his secondary during a given week. A quarterback's running ability and ability to read defenses accurately could factor.

Overall, I'd say it's telling to see the Cardinals' Hall and Skelton blitzed so frequently, particularly relative to the numbers for the more experienced Anderson. It's also telling to see some highly experienced quarterbacks blitzed so infrequently by comparison.

Chris from Houston writes: What free-agent quarterbacks do you expect Arizona to be looking at this offseason? I know of Marc Bulger, but who else is there for them to even consider that wouldn't require a trade? Thanks! Love the blog! Thanks for helping keep us all sane until next season.

Mike Sando: Thanks, Chris. This could be a rough offseason for signing or even acquiring quarterbacks from other teams.

One, the list of quarterbacks likely to hit the market is once against weak. Two, a lockout would prevent teams from trading for players -- even via draft-day trades involving picks. A lockout lasting past the draft would limit options further, in other words.

Peyton Manning and Michael Vick are scheduled to become free agents, but Manning is going nowhere, obviously, and the Eagles will presumably keep Vick, too. Brett Favre is retiring, it appears, so forget about him.

The next tier of quarterbacks with expiring contracts goes like this: Matt Hasselbeck, Kerry Collins, Chad Pennington and Bulger. These are older, likely declining players -- not necessarily guys to build around. Pennington's health is a major issue. Vince Young is available.

Several highly drafted, not-yet-old quarterbacks could hit the market, but none has met expectations. That list will feature Kyle Boller, Patrick Ramsey, Rex Grossman, J.P. Losman, Alex Smith and Matt Leinart. The Cardinals aren't bringing back Leinart, obviously, and the other guys on this list will not project as starters.

Tarvaris Jackson, Brodie Croyle and Matt Moore could be available, too.

Several career backups could become available: Todd Collins, Todd Bouman, Billy Volek, Bruce Gradkowski, Seneca Wallace, J.T. O'Sullivan, Chris Simms, Luke McCown, etc.

Still not sold?

The names get smaller from there. Brian St. Pierre, Jim Sorgi, Charlie Frye, Kellen Clemens, Drew Stanton, Troy Smith, Brian Brohm, Caleb Hanie, Jordan Palmer, Dennis Dixon ... we're not finding the Cardinals' next starter from that list, either.

Arizona should probably make a play for Bulger, consider drafting a quarterback and see how the trade market shakes out. The Cardinals have too many needs, in my view, to part with multiple picks of value for an unproven quarterback such as Kevin Kolb -- unless they're convinced that quarterback will become a very good player.

Clinching the NFC West title and winning a playoff game has dropped the Seattle Seahawks from eighth to 25th in the 2011 NFL draft order.

The slide will continue with every additional Seattle victory.

Beating St. Louis and New Orleans over the last two weeks has not filled draft needs, of course. Seattle still needs to identify its long-term quarterback. With that in mind, I've put together two charts showing quarterbacks drafted around where Seattle could have and currently would select.

The first chart shows every quarterback since 1990 drafted between the fifth and 15th overall choices, including six selected between fifth and seventh. Seattle would have been drafting in this general range if St. Louis had won the NFC West.

Arizona (fifth) and San Francisco (seventh) hold picks in this range, so the chart adds context for their choices as well.

Five of the 11 quarterbacks drafted fifth to 15th since 1990 have earned Pro Bowl honors. The three with plus signs next to their career start totals appear likely to start considerably more games in the future.

As the second chart shows, one of the nine quarterbacks drafted 20th through 30th since 1990 has earned Pro Bowl honors. One other, Tim Tebow, remains early enough in his career to qualify as a potential candidate for such honors down the road. Again, plus signs highlight totals likely to increase substantially over time.

Aaron Rodgers, the lone Pro Bowl choice from this group so far, was an exception as the 24th player chosen in the 2005 draft.

NFL teams have drafted 22 quarterbacks among the top four choices since 1990. I'll list them below by overall draft spot.

First overall: Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford, JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, David Carr, Michael Vick, Tim Couch, Peyton Manning, Drew Bledsoe, Jeff George.

Second overall: Donovan McNabb, Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer.

Third overall: Matt Ryan, Vince Young, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, Steve McNair, Heath Shuler.

Fourth overall: Philip Rivers.

One of the biggest St. Louis Rams fans I know raised the possibility nearly a month ago.

The San Francisco 49ers had held on for a 23-20 overtime victory over the Rams despite having five players commit six penalties for offside or encroachment. Were the 49ers really that undisciplined? Or was Rams rookie quarterback Sam Bradford really that persuasive with his cadence? Yes, and yes.

"Maybe Bradford has a better hard count than we thought," Rams fan Brian wrote via Facebook page Nov. 14.

The comment came to mind Thursday during the NFC West chat.

"Do you think you could run an analysis on how many offsides, neutral-zone infractions, etc., that have been caused by the different QBs across the league?" MG from Portland asked. "I swear I've seen Bradford create more of those than Marc Bulger ever did, and I am curious how he ranks within the division, conference, league, etc."

I loved the idea and reached out to Hank Gargiulo of ESPN Stats & Information. Hank put together a file linking starting quarterbacks with opposing penalties for offside, encroachment and neutral-zone infractions. The file was not perfect; a starting quarterback would get "credit" for penalties committed after he left the game. But the overall numbers would still tell us what we wanted to know. Starting quarterbacks tend to finish as well.

Turns out Bradford was the starting quarterback in games when opponents committed 27 such penalties. The number was no higher than 19 for any other quarterback in the league.

The first chart breaks down the penalties by opponent. Note that the Rams' three most recent opponents have committed none. Their first nine opponents committed at least one in every game. Is the word on Bradford getting around? Might his totals plateau as opponents become more familiar with his cadence?

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The second chart breaks down totals for quarterbacks around the league. I made four penalties the cutoff. Again, counts tie starting quarterbacks to opponents' penalties committed for offside, encroachment and neutral-zone infractions.

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Following up an earlier item, I've put together charts showing where NFL quarterbacks rate when throwing against eight-man boxes and loaded boxes (those where potential rushers outnumber blockers).

The first chart ranks the 12 quarterbacks with at least 20 attempts throwing against eight-man boxes. Most of these quarterbacks play for teams with top running backs.

Thanks to Allison Loucks of ESPN Stats & Information for providing the numbers.


The second chart shows where quarterbacks rate against loaded boxes (more potential rushers than blockers).

I expanded this chart to include quarterbacks with at least 15 attempts. This allowed the Arizona Cardinals' Derek Anderson and Max Hall to qualify for inclusion.

Age caught up to some of the best players in NFC West history this offseason.

Walter Jones, Isaac Bruce and Kurt Warner retired. Jones' knee was the problem. Bruce was no longer an impact player. Warner decided to move on with his life. All were at least 36 years old.

Some of the NFL's oldest players still have ties to current NFC West teams. The chart ranks each division by average age for offensive and defensive players (no specialists). It also shows how many 30-plus players each division employs (again, no specialists). The final column shows the oldest player in each division, including NFC West alumni Bobby Engram and Joey Galloway.

The four oldest players in the NFC East have roots with current NFC West teams: Galloway, Jon Kitna, Phillip Daniels and London Fletcher.

Paul Kuharsky's recent item focusing on the AFC South's youth holds up here. Only 19 non-specialists in the division are 30 or older. The AFC North has 50 such players. The Indianapolis Colts annually maintain one of the youngest rosters in the league.

I've found that teams running 3-4 defenses often prefer older players. Defensive players on teams with 3-4 schemes average 26.3 years old, compared to 25.7 for defensive players on 4-3 teams. This makes sense because 3-4 schemes can feature more moving parts, putting greater value on experience. These defenses can also value size over speed, putting less value on youth.

The information is based on the rosters I maintain for every team in the league. I had been missing roughly a dozen ages for rookie free agents until the NFL made available its 2011 Record & Fact Book featuring dates of birth. I'm now missing a birthday for only one NFL player: Damola Adeniji of the Oakland Raiders.

The St. Louis Rams need not look far to see what can happen when an overmatched NFL team mishandles a quarterback drafted first overall.

The division-rival San Francisco 49ers are still trying to recoup their investment in 2005 first overall choice Alex Smith.

The Rams probably will not change offensive coordinators every year for the next five seasons, as the 49ers improbably did in Smith's first five, but they still need to be careful with rookie No. 1 overall choice Sam Bradford.

Early indications suggest the Rams would like to follow the plan Philadelphia took with Donovan McNabb back in 1999, when Rams offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur was coaching the Eagles' tight ends. Doug Pederson opened as the Eagles starter that season, allowing McNabb to ease into the starting role. McNabb got some reps off the bench before taking over as the starter in November.

In setting expectations for Bradford, I looked at production by rookie quarterbacks since 1970. The list featured several older players, some with experience in the CFL or USFL. I filtered out those players by focusing only on quarterbacks who were 25 or younger as NFL rookies. A quick look at them by games started:

16-game starters

There were only five, in part because the NFL season spanned only 14 games until 1978.

Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Rick Mirer and David Carr pulled it off. All but Flacco, chosen 18th overall by Baltimore in 2008, were drafted among the top three overall choices in their class.

The ones who took the most sacks as rookies -- Carr (76) and Mirer (47) were the only ones to absorb more than 32 -- had the poorest careers. That might suggest the players had a hard time recovering from the beatings they took early in their careers. It also might reveal something about the quarterbacks' ability to process information quickly enough to get rid of the football before trouble arrives.

Offensive lines tend to take disproportionate blame for sacks, in my view. Quarterbacks are often responsible for them as well.

11- to 15-game starters

None in this group threw even 20 touchdown passes in a season (Manning and Dan Marino are the only rookie quarterbacks since 1970 to reach that barrier as rookies).

We should expect modest production from Bradford even if he starts most of the Rams' games.

Ben Roethlisberger was a rarity among this group by completing at least 60 percent of his passes, but rookie completion percentage wasn't a reliable indicator for career success overall.

Some quarterbacks ranking lower played when teams ran higher-risk offenses and rules made it tougher to complete passes.

6- to 10-game starters

Hall of Famers Marino, John Elway, Terry Bradshaw and Dan Fouts fell into this group.

This group featured a solid middle class headed by McNabb, Eli Manning, Bernie Kosar, Jim McMahon, Neil Lomax, Steve Beuerlein, Pat Haden, Doug Williams and Rodney Peete.

There were a few disappointments -- Ryan Leaf, Cade McNown, Kyle Boller and the 49ers' Smith, who still has a shot at redemption -- but this seems like a reasonable number of starts for a quarterback drafted early.

Matthew Stafford and Josh Freeman fell into this category last season.

3- to 5-game starters

Some high picks fell into this category, including Bert Jones, Vinny Testaverde, David Klingler, Tony Eason, Rex Grossman, Akili Smith, Jay Cutler, Tommy Maddox, Jim Everett and 1984 supplemental choice Steve Young.

This group produced relatively few true stars, however. Young was an obvious exception. Boomer Esiason was a good value.

In looking at the list, though, my sense is that a really good quarterback -- particularly one chosen early -- will start more than five games if he gets a chance to start at all in his first season.

2 or fewer starts

Hundreds of rookie quarterbacks failed to start a game and 69 did not attempt a pass. The latter group featured Tony Romo and in-the-news quarterbacks Kevin Kolb and Charlie Whitehurst, but Daunte Culpepper, the 11th player chosen in 1999, stood out as a rare high draft choice among the group.

Unlike Carson Palmer, who sat out his rookie season as a high choice in Cincinnati, Bradford is going to play as a rookie unless he gets hurt.

It's reasonable to expect Bradford to start at least half the games, putting up modest numbers. He'll probably struggle some, and that is OK, but it's a bad sign if the Alex Smith comparisons apply by season's end. Smith tossed one touchdown pass with 11 interceptions as a rookie. He wasn't ready and his supporting cast gave him little chance. That's a bad combination.

Titans quarterback Vince Young was running freely -- perhaps too freely -- through the Rams' defense.

He pulled up toward the end of the run and clutched the top of his right hamstring.

Young gained 44 yards on the play. He probably could have fought for more if the injury did not force him to the sideline. Kerry Collins is in the game at quarterback for Tennessee.

A game featuring top running backs Chris Johnson (two touchdowns already) and Steven Jackson also features two backup quarterbacks.

Rookie third-stringer Keith Null started for the Rams. Collins is now leading the Titans.

Null has passed for only 50 yards on 15 attempts, but he has avoided sacks and costly mistakes.

Steven Jackson's consistently stellar production in the running game should, in theory, make the Rams a dangerous play-action passing team.

That has not been the case.

Marc Bulger owns the NFL's second-lowest passer rating (39.8) on plays when he fakes the handoff, trailing only the Titans' since-benched Kerry Collins among quarterbacks with at least 10 play-action attempts. The Rams' Kyle Boller ranks 22nd with a 93.3 rating in those situations, two spots behind former 49ers starter Shaun Hill (96.1).

Kevin Kolb (158.3), Ben Roethlisberger (157.5), Brett Favre (136.9) and Vince Young (124.9) comprise the top four, with Kurt Warner (118.2), Seneca Wallace (118.2) and Matt Hasselbeck (106.9) among the top 16 . Matt Leinart does not have enough attempts to qualify.