NFC West: LaRod Stephens-Howling

Los Angeles Rams fans with long memories will recall when their team moved its games from the Coliseum to Anaheim in 1980.

The San Francisco 49ers' move to Santa Clara, celebrated with a stadium groundbreaking Thursday night, feels much different.

Both the Rams and 49ers were running from stadium problems, but the 49ers have a stadium solution.

Securing a new 49ers stadium to keep the team in the Bay Area stands as a defining achievement for CEO Jed York and the organization, and for Silicon Valley.

The groundbreaking ceremony was a victorious moment for corporate and civic types. This was their day to rejoice, but there's not much in a groundbreaking ceremony for fans to get excited about. The ones I know would rather discuss linebacker depth than what steps builders are taking to comply with environmental regulations.

Besides, those holding tickets to games at Candlestick Park will continue watching games there for the next couple seasons, some knowing they won't be able to afford seats in the new place. Fans nearer Santa Clara have nothing yet to show for the groundbreaking at this early stage. Their time will come once the stadium is completed.

Team headquarters have been in Santa Clara for years. Players and employees tend to live in that area, some 40 miles south of San Francisco down U.S. Highway 101. Relocating two exhibition games, eight regular-season games and home playoff games to Santa Clara will be great for them, even as the organization loses a tangible link to San Francisco.

Kevin Lynch of the San Francisco Chronicle calls the groundbreaking a bittersweet moment for the 49ers. Lynch: "The timing for staying in San Francisco was never right. If Jed York was the head of the 49ers when the team was negotiating with the City for a new stadium, maybe something would have been done. However, his father was at the helm then, and several sources said John York was incapable of moving forward because of the risks involved in such an immense project. So is the ground-breaking to be celebrated? Yes, but in muted fashion because the 49ers will soon have a state of the art facility that should keep the team competitive and even though saying 'San Francisco 49ers' will be somewhat of a falsehood when the team moves South, at least it’s better than saying 'Los Angeles 49ers'."

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee outlines the 49ers' vision for the stadium, with an emphasis on environmental considerations. Barrows: "One of the problems Jack Hill, the project executive for the 49ers' new $1.2 billion stadium, currently is facing is how to transport 2,000 tons of dirt and top soil 150 feet in the air. ... The dirt is intended for what the 49ers are hoping will be the signature feature of the venue, a 27,000 square-foot green roof that will support a garden of native plants, which in turn will soak up rainwater and provide insulation for the tower of luxury suites it sits atop."

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Rams hope tackle Jason Smith can adjust his approach to become more consistent. Line coach Paul Boudreau: "He's so intense in everything he does. He does everything in a hurry. I'm trying to show him some patience. And trying to get him to use his hands more than leaning into blocks. Just trying to slow him down. Trying to make the game slower by using good technique as opposed to going out and killing every guy you play. Because when he goes out there, if he hits (the defender), he hits him. But if he misses, it's a dead shot on the quarterback. So we're trying to get him to think a little bit more about his balance and his base, and where he is at the collision point."

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com says the Cardinals' decision to draft Ryan Williams in the second round last year was one example of going with value over need. Urban: "The Cardinals’ greatest need remains offensive tackle, but as with the Williams pick a year ago, the Cards have been careful not to lock themselves into needs. Early in the draft, when difference-makers can be found more often than not, chasing need can hamstring a team. There has been plenty of speculation whether or not a tackle like Iowa’s Riley Reiff will be there at 13, but for all the middle-of-the-road comments made Thursday, Whisenhunt made clear the Cards weren’t going to held hostage to an offensive line vacancy."

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic passes along an anecdote from Cardinals general manager Rod Graves regarding running back LaRod Stephens-Howling, a player Graves might not have selected without their assurances from coach Ken Whisenhunt and personnel director Steve Keim that Stephens-Howling could make an impact despite standing 5-foot-7.

Brock Huard of 710ESPN Seattle identifies five Seahawks players needing strong offseasons. On Golden Tate: "The emergence of Doug Baldwin and most assuredly a draft pick at wide receiver next week, an enhanced look at last year's fourth-rounder Kris Durham and super-freak Ricardo Lockette means it's sink or swim time for Tate (and possibly Mike Williams). Tate has as much if not more explosion and dynamic ability as any receiver on the roster not named Ricardo. Now, he has to prove to Pete Carroll, the offensive staff and his new quarterback that the commitment and 'want-to' will consistently align with his talent."

Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times updates injury situations for Seahawks tackle James Carpenter, cornerback Walter Thurmond, receiver Sidney Rice and others. GM John Schneider on Rice: "This is the healthiest he's going to be since he's been a professional."

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com quotes Schneider on the potentially trading back from the 12th overall choice. Schneider: "Now we’re in a position, especially at 12 -- I look at 12 like at 11, 12, 13 there’s a little bit of a ledge there, there’s a little bit of different players -- so if we want to stay and pick, I think it’s a really cool place to pick. If somebody does something that's really attractive, then we feel comfortable with the way we’ve prepared that we can go back, too. We feel like we’ve covered some things so we can go ahead and just take the good players that come to us."
Peter from Rutland, Vt., points to Anthony Dixon's failed third-and-1 rushing attempt in the NFC Championship Game as one reason the San Francisco 49ers might have signed former New York Giants running back Brandon Jacobs.

This play escaped my attention in the Jacobs item Tuesday. I suspect the play-by-play file I consulted did not encompass the NFC Championship Game.

"Dixon got stuffed by the Giants on a key third-and-1 attempt," Peter recalled. "He danced instead of smashing. That's why they took a chance on Jacobs. Dixon is not a reliable power back."

Perhaps, but Jacobs failed to convert a fourth-and-1 rushing attempt in the same game, and he has never been known for his hard-nosed running.

Dixon converted both of his rushing tries during the regular season when needing a single yard on third or fourth down. He missed that one attempt during the postseason, but Jacobs converted only 4 of 8 regular-season tries and 5-of-11 overall when counting the postseason.

I went back and watched Dixon's failed play just to be sure what happened. Dixon did not set a new standard for powerful running on the play, but neither did he have much room to run.

The 49ers shuffled their offensive line and brought onto the field two defenders, Justin Smith and Isaac Sopoaga, for additional blocking. The line, left to right, featured Vernon Davis, Alex Boone, Adam Snyder, Jonathan Goodwin (center), Mike Iupati, Anthony Davis, Joe Staley and Smith. Sopoaga lined up to the right in an offset-I formation.

The blocking was not very good. Mathias Kiwanuka shed Smith immediately and blocked Dixon's path off tackle. Chris Canty got between Anthony Davis and Staley in time to affect Dixon. Dixon did hesitate and step to the side as he sought an opening. Again, though, the blocking was not great.

While an NFL offense should be able to pick up a third-and-1 on the ground, I've thought the 49ers needed to occasionally break from tendency in these situations, not just with a pass but with a deeper strike to Vernon Davis. Previous 49ers coaching staffs succeeded with this tactic.

The 49ers had beaten the Giants for an 18-yard pass to Delanie Walker on a third-and-1 play when the teams met back in Week 10. Perhaps the 49ers' staff knew the Giants would be ready if they tried another pass. And, as noted, the team should be able to pick up a third-and-1 rushing play.

But with such a heavy formation to the right side, the Giants were ready for Dixon. They also took advantage of the fact that Smith, though a great player, plays defense and isn't a polished blocker.

The chart shows 2011 regular-season conversion stats for NFC West running backs on third and fourth downs with 1 yard needed for a first down. There's a reason teams use quarterback sneaks.

NFC West can shrug off OT proposal

March, 26, 2012
Mar 26
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The Arizona Cardinals lived dangerously in 2011, improbably posting a 4-0 record in overtime games.

Turns out the margins for error in those games wasn't all that small, at least by overtime standards.

Postseason rules giving both teams at least one overtime possession in the absence of a touchdown would not have affected outcomes for those games or any other involving an NFC West team last season.

NFL owners, who rarely need overtime to wrap up their annual meetings, are expected to adopt those overtime rules for the regular season beginning in 2012. They'll vote on the measure this week.

A quick look at how the postseason rules would have (or did) apply to NFC West overtime games last season:

A quick look back at them:

Week 2

Score: Cowboys 27, 49ers 24

Teams possessing ball in OT: both

Rule impact: none.

Note: The Cowboys kicked the winning field goal on first-and-goal from the 1 following a 77-yard pass completion. The 49ers possessed the ball first in OT and punted on fourth-and-11.

Week 9

Score: Cardinals 19, Rams 13

Teams possessing ball in OT: both

Rule impact: none

Note: The Rams punted after taking possession to open overtime. Patrick Peterson returned that punt 99 yards for the winning touchdown.

Week 13

Score: Cardinals 19, Cowboys 13

Teams possessing ball in OT: One

Rule impact: none

Note: LaRod Stephens-Howling's 52-yard catch-and-run for a touchdown punctuated the Cardinals' victory. The new rules would not have allowed a possession for Dallas because Arizona scored a touchdown.

Week 15

Score: Cardinals 20, Browns 17

Teams possessing ball in OT: both

Rule impact: none

Note: The Browns possessed the ball first in OT. The Cardinals took over and drove 36 yards to the winning 22-yard field goal.

Week 17

Score: Cardinals 23, Seahawks 20

Teams possessing ball in OT: both

Rule impact: none

Note: The Seahawks possessed the ball first in OT. Jay Feely's winning 28-yard field goal ended a 13-play, 71-yard drive.

Week 20

Score: Giants 20, 49ers 17

Teams possessing ball in OT: both

Rule impact: none

Note: The 49ers' three-and-out possession to begin OT gave them a chance. Kyle Williams' fateful fumble derailed what would have been a second chance. The Giants possessed the ball three times before scoring the winning field goal.
A few thoughts on known contract offers for restricted free agents in the NFC West:
  • The Hyphen: The Cardinals announced a second-round tender for running back LaRod Stephens-Howling, meaning any team signing Stephens-Howling would have to give Arizona a 2012 second-round choice if the Cardinals declined to match the offer. Stephens-Howling was a seventh-round pick. The fact that Arizona values him at a second-round level reflects well on him, and on the team for drafting him.
  • Amendola valued: Jim Thomas' report of a second-round tender for Danny Amendola suggests the Rams' new staff wants to keep the slot receiver. Amendola caught 85 passes in 2010, then suffered a season-ending elbow injury in the 2011 opener. He is 26 years old, has a good rapport with quarterback Sam Bradford and can contribute in the return game.
  • Secondary values: Arizona safety Rashad Johnson and cornerback Greg Toler received original-round tenders. That means Johnson would fetch a third-round pick and Toler a fourth-rounder. The knee injury Toler suffered before last season suppressed his value.
  • No Max Hall: The Cardinals retained rights to exclusive-rights free agents Rich Bartel, Alfonso Smith, Ronald Talley and Brandon Williams. They made no offer to Max Hall, a forgotten man in the team's quarterback race. Hall was once a player the Cardinals liked for his toughness and leadership, but his days in Arizona appear finished.
  • 49ers' LB depth: San Francisco had only two RFA candidates, linebacker Larry Grant and receiver Brett Swain. The team has made no announcement on its tenders, but Grant appears likely to receive an original-round offer, pegging his value to a seventh-round pick, Matt Maiocco notes. Grant played extensively on special teams and filled it pretty well at linebacker when Patrick Willis was out. The 49ers should be able to match any offers, or they could look for depth in the draft. Looks like Swain is head headed for free agency.
  • Seahawks have three: NFL Players Association records show Seattle extending a $1.26 million tender to kicker Steven Hauschka, allowing Seattle the right of first refusal. Guard Mike Gibson and cornerback Roy Lewis are the team's other RFAs. Lewis' agent said he has not yet received word from the team, which has until Tuesday to make RFA offers.

Looks like I've finally made it through a blog post without mentioning -- wait, who wrote that headline?
We're still a month away from NFL free agency, but with the Super Bowl behind us, we'll start sizing up players without contracts for 2012.

Expanding upon Brian McIntyre's lists, I've plugged in offensive and defensive snap-count numbers for NFC West free agents, courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information.

The charts below cover the Arizona Cardinals' free agents. The final column shows what each player's previous contract averaged annually.

Re-signing defensive end Calais Campbell will be a top priority. I don't see the Cardinals letting him get away. They moved on from Antonio Smith a few years ago, but they did so with Campbell ready to take over. They would have a hard time replacing Campbell.

Cornerback Richard Marshall proved valuable on a one-year deal. Early Doucet was a primary threat on third down.

Overall, though, the Cardinals have a relatively modest group of unrestricted free agents.

Safety Sean Considine played extensively on special teams. I've listed him with the offensive and defensive UFAs, however.

The Cardinals' key specialists are without contracts. The team has turned over those positions in recent seasons.

The Cardinals can keep their restricted free agents, listed below, by making one-year qualifying offers to them, then matching any outside offers.
Aaron Levine's report about the Seattle Seahawks hoping to bring a Super Bowl to the Northwest sent me back through notes to a 2002 interview with team owner Paul Allen.

The Seahawks were about to open their new stadium at the time, so it was natural to ask Allen whether the organization could bring a Super Bowl to Seattle.

"It is certainly do-able," Allen said at the time. "The league, there hasn’t been one in a northern city for some time. There is some talk of New York and Washington. Certainly, our hat is in the ring if they decide to look beyond cities like that."

The recent positive Super Bowl experience in Indianapolis would seem to help.

"I think probably it will be in another Northern city first," Allen said during that 2002 interview, "and if it’s a positive experience, hopefully some momentum will build."

CenturyLink Field is an open-air facility, however, and that could be a problem. The NFL sent the Super Bowl to Indianapolis knowing Lucas Oil Stadium would shield fans and players from inclement weather. Indianapolis is also a major-league destination for conventions. Skywalks connect downtown hotels.

Steve Rudman of Sports Press Northwest looks at Shaun Alexander's Hall of Fame credentials following Cortez Kennedy's induction. He compares Alexander's production to that for Curtis Martin, something I'll break out later on the blog.

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com breaks out pertinent NFL dates and makes this notation about the Cardinals regarding free agency: "The Cards have four restricted free agents (guys who could leave, but the Cards, if they tender an offer, have right of first refusal): running back LaRod Stephens-Howling, linebacker Reggie Walker, safety Rashad Johnson and cornerback Greg Toler." Note: Re-signing unrestricted free agent Calais Campbell has to be the top priority as far as addressing players already on the roster.

Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch updates the Rams' search for a general manager. The 49ers' Tom Gamble is next up, with Minnesota's George Paton up for a second interview. Thomas: "Gamble will be the ninth candidate to interview for the job. The others: Paton; Joey Clinkscales, vice president of college for the New York Jets; Lake Dawson, vice president of player personnel for Tennessee; Brian Gaine, director of player personnel for Miami; Ryan Grigson, director of player personnel for Philadelphia; Ron Hill, vice president of football operations for the NFL; Steve Keim, director of player personnel for Arizona; and Les Snead, director of player personnel for Atlanta. Grigson has since been hired as general manager by Indianapolis."

Howard Balzer of 101ESPN St. Louis says the Rams have signed an offensive lineman from the CFL.

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com takes a look at how the 49ers' receivers performed in 2011. On Josh Morgan: "Morgan's rehab is ahead of schedule, and he should be able to participate in the entire offseason program. He is scheduled to be a free agent, and it would seem to make sense for the sides to agree on a contract for next season. In five games, Morgan caught 15 passes for 220 yards and a touchdown."

Eric Branch of the San Francisco 49ers looks at which draft choices the 49ers hold for 2012.

2011 All-NFC West Specialists

January, 5, 2012
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A look at my all-NFC West picks for the 2011 season, concluding with the special teams:
  • This might go down as the most memorable NFC West season on special teams since divisional realignment. Records fell and players made dynamic, game-changing plays from beginning to end. The San Francisco 49ers led the NFL in field position. They succeeded on a fake field goal and a surprise onside kick. Only a replay challenge could stop the 49ers from executing another fake field goal.
  • The 49ers' Andy Lee was an easy choice at punter. He set an NFL record since at least 1976 for net average, according to Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information. Simon named Lee his punter of the year -- yes, he tracks such things -- and pointed out a few superlatives. Lee posted a 59.6-yard average in Week 1, third-best in league history. One of his final punts, a 64-yarder at St. Louis, was downed at the 1. Lee led the league in gross and net punting. Lee finished first when Simon tested formulas weighting various averages with inside-the-20 percentages, fair catches and touchbacks, plus punts returned for touchdowns.
  • Lee's teammate, David Akers, was an easy choice at kicker. Akers set a league record for most field goals made in a season (44) and most kicking points (166). He was special-teams player of the month for December after scoring a league-high 58 points. Akers even threw a touchdown pass on a fake field goal in Week 17. His point total broke Jerry Rice's single-season franchise scoring record.
  • Arizona's Patrick Peterson beat out the 49ers' Ted Ginn Jr. as the return specialist, although I should probably break out separate categories for kickoffs and punts. I decided to stick with the format we've used in past seasons. Peterson scored four touchdowns on punt returns. The Cardinals went from 27th to second in punt return average. Ginn scored twice on returns in the season opener and played a key role in the 49ers' field-position dominance. Peterson's 99-yard return touchdown against St. Louis in overtime was the second-longest in league history.
  • Seattle's Red Bryant and Arizona's Calais Campbell deserve mention for blocking field-goal tries (Peterson blocked two). Bryant blocked two field-goal attempts and an extra-point attempt at Cleveland. Campbell blocked three field-goal tries for the Cardinals, including a critical one against St. Louis.
  • Several special-teams coverage players drew my attention. Seattle's Heath Farwell led the NFL in special-teams tackles (counting assists) despite playing only 11 games. He blocked a 49ers punt in Week 16, helping Seattle take a 17-16 lead in the final minutes. The 49ers' Blake Costanzo and C.J. Spillman made plays, as did the Cardinals' LaRod Stephens-Howling and O'Brien Schofield. I went with Farwell and Spillman. We could not go wrong with any of these guys. They all deserve recognition.
  • I don't have a category for a long-snapper, but if I did, it would be named after the 49ers' Brian Jennings. He is one of the best ever, according to guys I know who can tell the difference between a good snapper and a great one.

The chart breaks down all-division choices from 2008 -10, plus this season.
The Arizona Cardinals matched an NFL record with four overtime victories this season.

Their latest overtime success story, a 23-20 victory over the Seattle Seahawks, featured more of the game-changing plays that typified Arizona's up-and-down season.

The 61-yard touchdown reception Arizona allowed to Seattle's Ricardo Lockette narrowly beat out Larry Fitzgerald's 26-yard grab in overtime for the top spot on our weekly list of most pivotal plays from NFC West games.

The chart breaks them out, ranked by how much each play influenced win probability, according to Alok Pattani of ESPN's analytics team. All five plays came from the Seattle-Arizona game even though the St. Louis Rams rallied to make the San Francisco 49ers work for a 34-27 victory at the Edward Jones Dome.

Win probability reflects how similar plays in similar situations have affected a team's chances. Some of the nine catches Fitzgerald made seemed to swing momentum beyond what a mathematical model can quantify. The way Fitzgerald kept coming back from big hits, including one that left him with a bruised lung, had to provide inspiration.

Lockette, signed before the season as an undrafted rookie free agent, has one catch in each of his first two games. Those receptions covered 44 and 61 yards. Fitzgerald's 26-yard grab was his 25th of the season covering at least 20 yards, his highest total since he had 27 in 2005. He averaged 17.6 yards per attempt, a career high by 2.7 yards.

2011 Cardinals Week 14: Five observations

December, 18, 2011
12/18/11
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Five things I noticed while watching the Arizona Cardinals during their most recent game, a 21-19 victory over the San Francisco 49ers in Week 14:
  • Great body language in the secondary. Strong safety Adrian Wilson and cornerback Patrick Peterson in particular played with obvious fire against the 49ers. They were the aggressors. They celebrated positive plays and seemed unfazed following negative ones. Defensive backs could simply be playing with more confidence now that they have a better grasp of a new scheme and are enjoying some success. The personalities might also be meshing better, a consideration as free safety Kerry Rhodes rejoins the rotation after recovering from injury. Cardinals fans will recall Rhodes repeatedly looking back toward Wilson when Carolina's Steve Smith scored in Week 1. As noted then, there's a line between expressing frustration and showing up a teammate. I thought Rhodes crossed that line.
  • Nick Eason's strong hands. The Cardinals' rotation at nose tackle has changed since Dan Williams went on injured reserve. Eason caught my attention by rag-dolling Alex Smith to the ground with one hand. Eason grabbed Smith by the sleeve and brought him down instantly.
  • Improved speed on the perimeter. The Cardinals' move toward younger players at linebacker has shown up on the stat sheet. Sacks are up. It's also showing up against the run. The Cardinals appear less reliant on the defensive ends to contain outside runs. Linebackers Sam Acho, O'Brien Schofield and Daryl Washington have the speed to chase down plays near the the sidelines. Free-agent addition Stewart Bradley got to the sideline in coverage against Frank Gore as the Cardinals held the 49ers to a field goal in the red zone.
  • Natural use of LaRod Stephens-Howling. The shovel pass Arizona executed freed Stephens-Howling for an 18-yard gain and made the 49ers pay for getting upfield quickly. It was the perfect play call at the time. There have been times, in past seasons, when the Cardinals' use of Stephens-Howling, though well-intentioned, felt a little forced. I remember seeing Stephens-Howling come into the game, usually on second down, and knowing the Cardinals would throw to him near the sideline. Stephens-Howling has justified an expanded role. The team has needed him to provide explosive plays lost when rookie Ryan Williams went on injured reserve.
  • Ray Horton delivering on promise. The Cardinals' first-year defensive coordinator vowed to come after opposing quarterbacks. Arizona's defensive players were leaning forward before the snap as if they could hardly restrain themselves from coming across the line early. Wilson and Peterson were among the defensive backs blitzing and getting to the quarterback. I never got the sense Arizona feared or respected Alex Smith's ability to beat them with big plays downfield.

This was a huge victory for Arizona. I made more than five notes when jotting down observations. A few more, quickly: Officials flagged Rashad Johnson for a late hit on Delanie Walker, who dropped a third-down pass a short while later. Related? I thought it could have been. Those types of hits get receivers' attention. ...

The Cardinals' Reggie Walker had a hard time with 49ers' punt returner Ted Ginn Jr. in the open field. Ginn juked him a couple times on returns into Arizona territory. ...

Not sure why the Cardinals left their right tackle, Brandon Keith, singled up against Aldon Smith on a three-man pressure deep in Arizona territory. Smith got the sack. Skelton was partly to blame. He held the ball too long. ...

Just when quarterback John Skelton seems to be making progress in his decision making, he throws a high pass across the field for an interception. ...

The Cardinals did exploit Patrick Willis' injury absence from the 49ers' defense. Larry Fitzgerald broke a tackle attempt by Willis' replacement, Larry Grant, during a 53-yard reception to open the fourth quarter. Willis would have made that tackle, most likely.

'Hyphen' and Hunter dangerous after catch

December, 8, 2011
12/08/11
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LaRod Stephens-Howling was among the NFL's best in racking up yards after the catch even before weaving through the Dallas Cowboys' defense for the winning 52-yard touchdown in overtime Sunday.

That play widened the gap between the Arizona Cardinals running back and every other player with at least eight receptions this season, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Stephens-Howling, nicknamed "The Hyphen," previously gained about 15 yards after the catch during a critical fourth-and-2 play at Philadelphia. That play gained 30 yards during the winning drive.

Stephens-Howling and the San Francisco 49ers' Kendall Hunter are not starting running backs. They both rank among the NFL leaders in yards after the catch, however -- something to watch when San Francisco visits Arizona in Week 14. The Cardinals' defense ranks eighth in average yards allowed after the catch (4.8), seven spots higher than the 49ers' defense ranks (5.1). Pittsburgh leads the NFL (4.5).

Hunter, like Stephens-Howling, hurt the Eagles after the catch. He gained all but about 10 of his 44 yards after the catch on a third-quarter reception that sparked the 49ers' comeback from a 23-3 deficit. Alex Smith scrambled to his right. Hunter adjusted well. Hunter caught the ball and outran linebacker Brian Rolle, then weaved through the secondary. San Francisco scored two plays later.

The Eagles are allowing 7.1 yards per reception after the catch, second-worst in the NFL.

The chart shows yards-after-catch leaders from NFC West teams (minimum eight receptions). The 49ers' Frank Gore just missed the top 10. He has averaged 5.6 yards after the catch on his 16 receptions, down from 10.1 yards last season. The 49ers have utilized Gore more in pass protection. He is on pace to finish with less than half his total for receptions last season (46).
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QBR: When average QB play is enough

December, 5, 2011
12/05/11
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Kevin Kolb needed merely to be average for the Arizona Cardinals to realize a significant gain in the standings.

That was my theory heading into the 2011 NFL season.

The team was so bad at quarterback in finishing 5-11 last season, my thinking went, that even mediocre play might get them into the .500 range. Kolb has too frequently been less than mediocre this season, but that changed during the second half and overtime of the Cardinals' 19-13 victory over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 13.

Total QBR, which pegs average quarterback play at 50 on a 100-point scale, says Kolb has played near an average level four times this season, including when he posted a season-high 54.0 score Sunday. The Cardinals are 2-2 in those four games. They are 0-4 when Kolb has posted a QBR score significantly worse than average.

So, while an improved defense largely accounted for the Cardinals' victory Sunday, slightly better than average quarterback play was critical, too.

Kolb remains the only projected NFC West starter without a single-game QBR score of 55 or higher. He faces a tough test when San Francisco visits University of Phoenix Stadium in Week 14. Average might not be good enough then, but with three of their final four games at home, the Cardinals still have a chance to approach that .500 range -- right where we thought they might land, albeit by less conventional means.


Quick thoughts on how NFC West passers graded out in Week 13 according to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point:
  • Tarvaris Jackson, Seahawks (76.9 QBR, 142.3 NFL rating): See full breakdown from Friday.
  • Alex Smith, 49ers (68.7 QBR, 142.3 NFL rating): Smith completed 17 of 23 passes for 274 yards with two touchdowns, no interceptions, four sacks, no fumbles and two rushing attempts covering 10 yards (rush stats updated). He finished with the highest single-game NFL passer rating of his career. Smith also posted a high QBR score, but the blowout affected how much credit he got for plays deemed less important to winning. QBR does not necessarily tell us how well a quarterback executed his team's game plan. It does not necessarily tell us whether he threw pretty passes. It tells us how his passes, runs, penalties and sacks affected win probability on a per-play basis, weighted for game situations. Smith has largely done what the team has asked him to do. The team has not always asked him to be the difference in winning. For that reason, his QBR scores have sometimes lagged despite seemingly efficient play. The downfield throws Smith made Sunday helped him finish with his sixth QBR score of 65 or higher. That level, if sustained over the course of a season, would reflect Pro Bowl-caliber play. QBR says Smith has achieved that level more often than not recently.
  • Kevin Kolb, Cardinals (54.0 QBR, 109.9 NFL rating): Kolb completed 16 of 25 passes for 247 yards with one touchdown, no interceptions, five sacks and no fumbles. He ran three times for 20 yards, including once for a 17-yard gain to the Dallas 5-yard line on the Cardinals' first possession of the second half. Kolb passed for only 44 yards in the first half and took four of his sacks then. He played much better from that point forward. The QBR score was only slightly above average because Kolb took so many sacks. And because LaRod Stephens-Howling did most of the work on the winning 52-yard touchdown reception in overtime, Kolb did not get as much credit for that throw as NFL passer rating gave him.
  • A.J. Feeley, Rams (11.4 QBR, 58.1 NFL rating): Feeley completed 12 of 22 passes for 156 yards with no touchdowns, one interception, four sacks, one fumble (lost) and no rushing attempts. Austin Pettis dropped an early third-down pass when a conversion was within reach. Danario Alexander failed to hold onto a deep pass at the goal line. The game wasn't very competitive, however, and that meant even strong plays from Feeley would not have registered as much with QBR once the score was lopsided.

The chart below shows how quarterbacks from games involving NFC West teams fared in Total QBR for Week 13.

The clutch-weight average column reflects game situations, not how well players performed during those situations. Any clutch average above 1.0 reflects a quarterback performing in higher-pressure situations.

Note in the chart below that Dallas' Tony Romo added far more expected points through his passing than any quarterback listed. The negative totals he posted for rushing, sacks and penalties left his QBR score in the mid-50s, however.

Around the NFC West: Cards' playmaking

December, 5, 2011
12/05/11
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The Arizona Cardinals, for all their struggles at quarterback and on defense in recent seasons, have done a good job collecting playmakers over the years.

That paid off Sunday when one of those playmakers, LaRod Stephens-Howling, turned a short pass from Kevin Kolb into a weaving 52-yard touchdown in overtime against the Dallas Cowboys. As much as Arizona wouldn't mind following a more conventional path to winning, the team has matched its victory total from last season largely through the spectacular.

Patrick Peterson's punt returns were critical in victories against Carolina and St. Louis (twice). Stephens-Howling, owner of three career kickoff-return touchdowns, helped beat Philadelphia with a late over-the-shoulder grab for a 30-yard gain on fourth down -- the type of play few running backs could make. The play Stephens-Howling made Sunday was even better.

Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic says Stephens-Howling couldn't remember how many would-be tackles he avoided on the game-winning reception. McManaman: "Once Stephens-Howling caught an outside screen pass from Kolb and turned around to look downfield, he saw a handful of teammates plowing the road in front of him with an assortment of blocks. One of them was a huge containment block by receiver Andre Roberts against linebacker Terence Newman." Noted: Roberts showed up huge in this game as a receiver and, in this case, as a blocker. Looks like he has a chance to finish strong for a second consecutive season.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic says there was more to the Cardinals' victory than big plays on offense. Somers: "It would be easy to concentrate on the startling offensive turnaround. But the Cardinals won because their defense played well throughout, even though it was presented with terrible field position time and again. The Cardinals sacked quarterback Tony Romo five times, and while the Cowboys didn't have a turnover, they scored just one touchdown, and they had to go only 33 yards for that one."

Dan Bickley of the Arizona Republic says Kolb took a significant step forward Sunday. Bickley: "Kolb, who was returning from a four-game absence because of a foot injury, amassed 203 of his 247 passing yards in the final 30 minutes. He did not commit a turnover. He made plays with his feet. He made nice throws in overtime, when the Cardinals offense actually won the game. Finally, Kolb felt part of the team and looked like part of the solution. It was his first win since opening day. It relieved the growing pressure between his ears. It will mute some national experts who believe the Cardinals flushed away good money trading for the former Eagles backup."

From Somers and McManaman: What were the Cowboys doing when they called timeout, effectively icing their own kicker?

Also from Somers: thoughts on all aspects of the Cardinals' performance. Somers: "I think for the first time in five seasons, the Cardinals defense is playing the way Ken Whisenhunt envisioned. The Cardinals defense has yielded five touchdowns in its last five games. The parts are fitting together now, and the group is a nice mixture of experience veterans and productive youngsters. There has been a lot of focus on the contributions of young players (deservedly so) but some veterans have been big factors, too. Strong safety Adrian Wilson, linebacker Paris Lenon and cornerback/safety Richard Marshall, have played well."

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com offers postgame thoughts, including one from Darnell Dockett, who supports a run-oriented offense.

Also from Urban: Cardinals notes.

Wrap-up: Cardinals 19, Cowboys 13 (OT)

December, 4, 2011
12/04/11
7:59
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Thoughts on the Arizona Cardinals' performance during their game against the Dallas Cowboys at University of Phoenix Stadium in Week 13:

What it means: The Cardinals can feel better about quarterback Kevin Kolb and their defense after Kolb's 52-yard scoring pass to LaRod Stephens-Howling in overtime. Kolb was back in the lineup for the first time since Oct. 30. He struggled early, but a strong second half and overtime gave him something to build around heading into the final month of the season. That was important for Kolb and the team. Arizona's defensive improvement has been ongoing. This was another step forward on that front.

What I liked: The Arizona defense played well enough to keep the Cardinals in the game while the Arizona offense struggled. Kolb bounced back to lead the Cardinals on two scoring drives to open the second half. He did a good job getting Andre Roberts involved, a change from earlier in the season. Kolb played with more awareness in the pocket, including when he peeked over his shoulder before rolling right and finding Larry Fitzgerald for a near-reception (Fitzgerald did not get both feet down). The Cardinals' defense got pressure on Tony Romo, including in key situations. There were also times when Romo could find no receivers open downfield, inviting sacks.

What I didn't like: The Cardinals got nothing going offensively in the first half. That changed to open the second half, but a false-start penalty against right tackle Brandon Keith derailed an attempt to go for it on fourth-and-goal from the 1. Another false-start penalty, this one against Daryn Colledge, set back a fourth-quarter drive when the score was tied and Arizona needed to rally. There were lots of Cowboys fans at University of Phoenix Stadium. Crowd noise seemed to be a factor on the false-start penalty against Colledge. Early Doucet, reliable on third down to this point in the season, dropped a third-down pass when the Cardinals were deep in their own territory with less than four minutes remaining in the game.

Quotebook: The score was tied 13-13 midway through the fourth quarter when Fox analyst John Lynch said, "This Cardinals defense is for real." Those words seemed most unlikely when that same defense was struggling early in the season. The recent progress on defense has come since the team gave more playing time to Sam Acho and, to a lesser extent, O'Brien Schofield. Players have also had more time to learn the scheme coordinator Ray Horton installed beginning in August.

What's next: The Cardinals are home against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 14.

Cardinals' youth movement is old news

November, 30, 2011
11/30/11
1:50
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If the headline above this item sounds confusing, that was the point.

The Arizona Cardinals are at once a young, emerging team and an old, declining one.

As discussed earlier Wednesday in the Arizona section of this item, the Cardinals have the 15th-oldest players on offense and the second-oldest players on defense. No team in the NFL has older defensive backups in terms of average age. But that is only part of the story.

The Cardinals' five youngest players are starting. Their eight youngest players all own at least two starts this season. Their ninth-, 10th- and 11th-youngest players -- David Carter, LaRod Stephens-Howling and O'Brien Schofield -- are getting significant playing time and making positive contributions.

By my calculations, the Cardinals would go from third-oldest to roughly 15th-oldest in average age (not counting specialists) simply by replacing Vonnie Holliday, Clark Haggans, Joey Porter and Paris Lenon with players averaging 25 years old.

Haggans and Lenon remain productive players, but the team hopes to replace them with younger players. Schofield could realistically step in for Haggans next season. Free-agent addition Stewart Bradley, 28, will presumably play more next season as well.

Porter appears on his way out now that rookie Sam Acho is starting and producing (two sacks, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery against St. Louis). Acho has started the last five games. He has four sacks in those five starts, plus a fifth sack one game before he replaced Porter in the lineup. The 2011 fourth-round draft choice looks like a keeper.

The Cardinals will also get younger next season by welcoming back Ryan Williams from injured reserve. The team signed 32-year-old Chester Taylor as an emergency replacement when Williams, still not yet 22, landed on injured reserve with a knee injury. Nose tackle Dan Williams, 24, went on injured reserve more recently. His return will also make the Cardinals younger on average.

The goal should be to get better, not just younger. But if you're going to suffer through losing seasons, it's best to develop young talent along the way. The Cardinals are doing that. They could still stand to add young players throughout their roster.

For example, Arizona's backup offensive linemen are 28, 29 and 31 years old when 27-year-old Brandon Keith is healthy enough to start at right tackle. That gives the Cardinals the oldest backup offensive linemen in the league, by my calculations.

Plugging in an experienced player can be more comforting than turning to a raw rookie, but teams hire coaches to develop talent, not just manage it. Drafting for the offensive line (there's a thought) and defense would go a long way toward changing the overall makeup of the Cardinals' roster.

Thoughts on Kevin Kolb's potential return

November, 25, 2011
11/25/11
3:51
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The Arizona Cardinals have listed quarterback Kevin Kolb as questionable for the team's game at St. Louis in Week 12.

Kolb has missed the last three games while recovering from toe and foot injuries.

If Kolb does play, I'll be watching to see whether he can improve his rapport with receiver Andre Roberts in particular. The chart shows Kolb's stats lagging on throws to Roberts, the Cardinals' starter opposite Larry Fitzgerald. His NFL passer rating is best when throwing to tight end Jeff King. Backup quarterback John Skelton's rating when targeting Roberts (64.6) is about the same as when he targets other receivers (63.8).

Both Kolb and Skelton have fared well when throwing to Early Doucet. Skelton has completed 10 of 14 passes for 126 yards with one touchdown, one interception and a 93.2 rating on passes to Doucet. Kolb has a 103.4 rating when targeting Doucet.

Thanks to Hank Gargiulo of ESPN Stats & Information for running these breakdowns.

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