NFC West: Mark Sanchez
SeattleAztec from San Diego asks whether Matt Flynn might be the "most developed" quarterback in the NFC West after learning from Mike McCarthy in Green Bay.
"Alex Smith and Sam Bradford seem to be the least developed with having multiple offensive coordinators and no great vets to learn behind," he writes. "Kevin Kolb had a good upbringing in Philadelphia and Arizona has shown an ability to handle QBs, but Flynn had the benefit of learning in the Green Bay system. Learning behind Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy will give him an advantage, assuming he wins the starting job. Thoughts?"
Mike Sando: Flynn's background with McCarthy and the Packers appealed to the Seahawks. McCarthy, with nothing more than a compensatory draft choice to gain from advocating for Flynn in free agency, gave glowing reviews in conversations with the Seahawks. Those conversations appear more credible based on Seahawks general manager John Schneider's long association and friendship with McCarthy.
"We really respect the job that they’ve done with their offense and their quarterbacking and Matt is a beneficiary of that, so therefore we are also," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said after signing Flynn in March. "His process to learn as Aaron Rodgers has learned has really been helpful to him. There are a lot of similarities in their style of movement and decision-making, play and conscience that I think helps us."
That doesn't necessarily mean Flynn will be the "most developed" quarterback in the division. A few thoughts on what the other NFC West quarterbacks have going for them:
Circling back to the original question, we could make a case that Flynn should be the most developed quarterback in the division.
Other factors go into success, of course. Bradford and Smith were No. 1 overall choices, indicating that teams thought they were more talented than Flynn, a seventh-rounder who drew moderate interest in free agency this offseason. And if the Seahawks were convinced Flynn were the answer, they would have had less reason to use a third-round choice for a quarterback after signing Flynn.
I do think Flynn's background with the Packers was crucial for the Seahawks. Schneider's first-hand knowledge of Green Bay's quarterback training techniques was a factor.
"Alex Smith and Sam Bradford seem to be the least developed with having multiple offensive coordinators and no great vets to learn behind," he writes. "Kevin Kolb had a good upbringing in Philadelphia and Arizona has shown an ability to handle QBs, but Flynn had the benefit of learning in the Green Bay system. Learning behind Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy will give him an advantage, assuming he wins the starting job. Thoughts?"
Mike Sando: Flynn's background with McCarthy and the Packers appealed to the Seahawks. McCarthy, with nothing more than a compensatory draft choice to gain from advocating for Flynn in free agency, gave glowing reviews in conversations with the Seahawks. Those conversations appear more credible based on Seahawks general manager John Schneider's long association and friendship with McCarthy.
"We really respect the job that they’ve done with their offense and their quarterbacking and Matt is a beneficiary of that, so therefore we are also," Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said after signing Flynn in March. "His process to learn as Aaron Rodgers has learned has really been helpful to him. There are a lot of similarities in their style of movement and decision-making, play and conscience that I think helps us."
That doesn't necessarily mean Flynn will be the "most developed" quarterback in the division. A few thoughts on what the other NFC West quarterbacks have going for them:
- Smith (49ers): Jim Harbaugh should know the position better than any head coach in the division. Smith has more experience than any quarterback in the division. Harbaugh and Smith meshed well last season. Offensive coordinator Greg Roman and quarterbacks coach Geep Chryst round out what looks like a solid support group. Smith has finally had time this offseason to work on his mechanics. He's getting a second season in the offense. Spending one season with McCarthy and a second with Norv Turner probably counts for something, too, despite the passage of time.
- Kolb (Cardinals): Kolb did not practice with the Cardinals until 38 days before the 2011 opener. That made it tough for Kolb to learn a new system and settle into the role. Injuries derailed Kolb once he finally did get experience in the system. The Cardinals fired quarterbacks coach Chris Miller and promoted receivers coach John McNulty to the position. Arizona valued McNulty enough to block Tampa Bay from pursuing him as its offensive coordinator. The team's new receivers coach, Frank Reich, was an NFL quarterback for 14 seasons. What does it all mean? It's a little early to tell.
- Bradford (Rams): New coordinator Brian Schottenheimer was with Mark Sanchez previously. One line of thinking says Schottenheimer led Sanchez as far as Sanchez could go, then took the fall when Sanchez failed to carry more of the offensive load. Another line of thinking says Schottenheimer couldn't get Sanchez past a certain point. Bradford is on his third coordinator in as many seasons. The Rams went through 2011 without a quarterbacks coach. The new quarterbacks coach, Frank Cignetti, coached the 49ers' Smith under coordinator Jim Hostler in 2007. That was one of the worst offensive seasons in 49ers history. Hostler took the blame. It's tough to fault Cignetti in that context, but also tough to offer a strong endorsement without seeing results.
Circling back to the original question, we could make a case that Flynn should be the most developed quarterback in the division.
Other factors go into success, of course. Bradford and Smith were No. 1 overall choices, indicating that teams thought they were more talented than Flynn, a seventh-rounder who drew moderate interest in free agency this offseason. And if the Seahawks were convinced Flynn were the answer, they would have had less reason to use a third-round choice for a quarterback after signing Flynn.
I do think Flynn's background with the Packers was crucial for the Seahawks. Schneider's first-hand knowledge of Green Bay's quarterback training techniques was a factor.
Scout's take: 2012 NFC West QB situations
March, 26, 2012
Mar 26
1:59
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Three-fourths of the NFC West wanted a shot at Peyton Manning this offseason.
The Seattle Seahawks' Pete Carroll and John Schneider flew to Denver in a failed attempt to catch Manning before the quarterback departed for Arizona.
The Cardinals met with Manning at their facility.
The San Francisco 49ers then emerged as a surprise finalist for Manning, with Trent Baalke and Jim Harbaugh flying to watch Manning work out in North Carolina.
Manning was a special case, to be sure, but those teams' interest also reflected on relatively weak quarterback situations in Seattle, Arizona and San Francisco. The position has stabilized within the division since Manning signed with Denver, providing an opportunity to bring in Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. for thoughts on where teams stand.
Mike Sando: Let's begin with the Seahawks, the only team in the division to bring in a new likely starter from the outside. Does Matt Flynn improve the situation?
Matt Williamson: Yes, and that is the best word. When free agency hit, I wasn't huge on Flynn. I thought people would be beating down his doors, and he worried me. I think he's good, not great. I would not use the term 'franchise quarterback' for him. But he improves them and I can't be critical of any team that gets better at QB.
Sando: What limits your enthusiasm on him?
Williamson: His overall talent, his ability to throw the football, his size and strength -- they're all just a little above average. He was a seventh-round draft choice for a reason. You have to keep him ahead of the chains, you need the running game. He doesn't take the team on its shoulders if things fall apart around him. If you manufacture offense, know what he is capable of doing, minimize turnovers, I think you can win a lot of games that way. In the end, he is an upgrade. And they did not spend a fortune for him.
I look at Seattle like the arrow is going up, they are getting better in all areas and they are young. This is a nice signing. Tarvaris Jackson played well and he was injured, and he exceeded my expectations, but that is as good as he is going to play. He is still a liability more than an asset. Flynn can get to a point where he can be more of an asset than a liability.
Sando: You said we've seen the best from Jackson. A lot of people think we've seen the best from the 49ers' Alex Smith as well.
Williamson: I agree. I really think it's going to be Colin Kaepernick's job not far down the line. They are going out and getting vertical guys, guys who can really run. That doesn't fit Alex Smith. Yes, it will open up room for Frank Gore and Vernon Davis, but after a while, people are going to realize they don't have to take away the deep ball. I think Harbaugh wants Kaepernick out there. He wants a guy to use the whole field.
Sando: The contract Smith signed was for three seasons and can max out at $33 million, but the 49ers can easily exit the deal after one or two years and a lot less money.
Williamson: Everyone realized that offense was easy to play against last year because they had no weapons on the outside to scare you deep. Harbaugh knew that, so he was really creative with his big-body personnel, using a lot of six-man line sets, double tights, heavy formations. They did a lot of odd things and had to coach up points. I think he wants more explosiveness for sure and more verticality, and Kaepernick has those traits much more than Smith. They traded up to get Kaepernick for a reason. You don’t use a second-round pick for a quarterback who is very toolsy without looking at him as the starter.
Sando: Smith did go 13-3 last season. He did make the winning plays against New Orleans in the wild-card round. Is the trajectory pointing up on him?
Williamson: Smith minimized the negative plays and will never be any better than he was doing that. He may get more confident, may make a few more throws, but what we saw in that one playoff game will be few and far between. He is an OK player, but has a real low ceiling.
Sando: Cardinals fans are hoping that comment doesn't apply to Kevin Kolb as well. Kolb had trouble staying on the field last season, missing extended period with toe and head injuries. He struggled when he was on the field as well.
Williamson: I look at Kolb like I look at the rookies last year. The lockout, those guys got thrown into the fire in an unfair manner. Any quarterback changing teams, especially a QB with limited experience, never got the minicamps or the things they needed. But man, I didn't like anything I saw from Kolb. I think their quarterback situation is the worst in the league right now, right there with the Browns and the Dolphins and a few other teams.
Sando: Arizona saw enough to pay a $7 million bonus to Kolb, keeping him on the roster. The alternative was heading toward the draft with John Skelton as the only starting prospect. That would have been rough. What about Kolb bothered you the most last season?
Williamson: I just didn’t see anything to get excited about. Didn’t see tools or the willingness to hang in the pocket. Maybe he was just uncomfortable. A couple guys who floundered last season could step up big after having a regular offseason. I just did not see anything. Kolb does not stand as firm in the pocket as I would like. I'd like to see him more willing to take hits to deliver the football.
Sando: Kolb did that well on a deep pass to Larry Fitzgerald at Washington early in the season, absorbing a crushing hit to complete a game-changing pass. But that play was an exception. Kolb did bail from pressure too frequently, and he could not stay on the field.
Williamson: Ken Whisenhunt was used to Ben Roethlisberger, who is the opposite. Kurt Warner is the opposite, too. He would take a hit, let it go at the absolute last second.
Sando: Any discussion about quarterbacks getting hit should include the St. Louis Rams' Sam Bradford. He took 36 sacks in 10 games last season. Bradford has a new offensive coordinator, Brian Schotteneheimer, and a new head coach promising to protect him.
Williamson: I am a Bradford guy who had no problem with their decision not to take Robert Griffin III. The Rams have had as good an offseason as anyone. The more I look at last season -- mix in Bradford's injuries, the bad line, having no weapons -- it was an impossible endeaver. Throw that away. Jeff Fisher is smart and has a history of bringing along guys slowly, of running Eddie George and playing defense. Schottenheimer did a ton of that with the Jets, maybe even too much, but he had to.
Sando: Right. Schottenheimer was trying to take off pressure from Mark Sanchez, at least until last season.
Williamson: Sanchez isn't close to Bradford. My concern with the Rams would be two years from now, if Bradford still does look like the first overall pick, will they take the reins off? Harnessing him back now, I have no problem with that. Win some games, lean on others. But will they allow him to be great when he is ready? They are conservative by nature.
Sando: Shorter term, the Rams haven't done anything to help Bradford in the playmaker department. They've actually gotten worse in that area after losing Brandon Lloyd to free agency.
Williamson: They will end up with Trent Richardson or Justin Blackmon in the draft, but it would have been nice to add some kind of veteran. Maybe Mario Manningham. At least a No. 2 type. They do have a lot of young guys from last year and maybe someone steps up, but it's not real exciting. I would not have paid what Pierre Garcon got, though. Robert Meachem got good money too. St. Louis is not the most attractive free-agent landing spot for a receiver right now. But the team is set up for the long term, at least. They will get a top-10-type stud wideout in the next year or two.
Sando: Thanks for the conversation, Matt. I'll be on the lookout for you next Football Today podcast, which posts right here each week. The next one goes live Monday.
The Seattle Seahawks' Pete Carroll and John Schneider flew to Denver in a failed attempt to catch Manning before the quarterback departed for Arizona.
The Cardinals met with Manning at their facility.
The San Francisco 49ers then emerged as a surprise finalist for Manning, with Trent Baalke and Jim Harbaugh flying to watch Manning work out in North Carolina.
Manning was a special case, to be sure, but those teams' interest also reflected on relatively weak quarterback situations in Seattle, Arizona and San Francisco. The position has stabilized within the division since Manning signed with Denver, providing an opportunity to bring in Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. for thoughts on where teams stand.
Mike Sando: Let's begin with the Seahawks, the only team in the division to bring in a new likely starter from the outside. Does Matt Flynn improve the situation?
[+] Enlarge
Scott Boehm/Getty ImagesMatt Flynn provides an upgrade for the Seahawks, but isn't a franchise QB, according to Matt Williamson.
Scott Boehm/Getty ImagesMatt Flynn provides an upgrade for the Seahawks, but isn't a franchise QB, according to Matt Williamson.Sando: What limits your enthusiasm on him?
Williamson: His overall talent, his ability to throw the football, his size and strength -- they're all just a little above average. He was a seventh-round draft choice for a reason. You have to keep him ahead of the chains, you need the running game. He doesn't take the team on its shoulders if things fall apart around him. If you manufacture offense, know what he is capable of doing, minimize turnovers, I think you can win a lot of games that way. In the end, he is an upgrade. And they did not spend a fortune for him.
I look at Seattle like the arrow is going up, they are getting better in all areas and they are young. This is a nice signing. Tarvaris Jackson played well and he was injured, and he exceeded my expectations, but that is as good as he is going to play. He is still a liability more than an asset. Flynn can get to a point where he can be more of an asset than a liability.
Sando: You said we've seen the best from Jackson. A lot of people think we've seen the best from the 49ers' Alex Smith as well.
Williamson: I agree. I really think it's going to be Colin Kaepernick's job not far down the line. They are going out and getting vertical guys, guys who can really run. That doesn't fit Alex Smith. Yes, it will open up room for Frank Gore and Vernon Davis, but after a while, people are going to realize they don't have to take away the deep ball. I think Harbaugh wants Kaepernick out there. He wants a guy to use the whole field.
Sando: The contract Smith signed was for three seasons and can max out at $33 million, but the 49ers can easily exit the deal after one or two years and a lot less money.
[+] Enlarge
Kyle Terada/US PRESSWIREThe 49ers brought back Alex Smith, but Colin Kaepernick, left, is San Francisco's future at QB.
Kyle Terada/US PRESSWIREThe 49ers brought back Alex Smith, but Colin Kaepernick, left, is San Francisco's future at QB.Sando: Smith did go 13-3 last season. He did make the winning plays against New Orleans in the wild-card round. Is the trajectory pointing up on him?
Williamson: Smith minimized the negative plays and will never be any better than he was doing that. He may get more confident, may make a few more throws, but what we saw in that one playoff game will be few and far between. He is an OK player, but has a real low ceiling.
Sando: Cardinals fans are hoping that comment doesn't apply to Kevin Kolb as well. Kolb had trouble staying on the field last season, missing extended period with toe and head injuries. He struggled when he was on the field as well.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Elaine ThompsonArizona's Kevin Kolb, right, has a lot to prove to season after struggling through an injury-filled 2011.
AP Photo/Elaine ThompsonArizona's Kevin Kolb, right, has a lot to prove to season after struggling through an injury-filled 2011.Sando: Arizona saw enough to pay a $7 million bonus to Kolb, keeping him on the roster. The alternative was heading toward the draft with John Skelton as the only starting prospect. That would have been rough. What about Kolb bothered you the most last season?
Williamson: I just didn’t see anything to get excited about. Didn’t see tools or the willingness to hang in the pocket. Maybe he was just uncomfortable. A couple guys who floundered last season could step up big after having a regular offseason. I just did not see anything. Kolb does not stand as firm in the pocket as I would like. I'd like to see him more willing to take hits to deliver the football.
Sando: Kolb did that well on a deep pass to Larry Fitzgerald at Washington early in the season, absorbing a crushing hit to complete a game-changing pass. But that play was an exception. Kolb did bail from pressure too frequently, and he could not stay on the field.
Williamson: Ken Whisenhunt was used to Ben Roethlisberger, who is the opposite. Kurt Warner is the opposite, too. He would take a hit, let it go at the absolute last second.
Sando: Any discussion about quarterbacks getting hit should include the St. Louis Rams' Sam Bradford. He took 36 sacks in 10 games last season. Bradford has a new offensive coordinator, Brian Schotteneheimer, and a new head coach promising to protect him.
Williamson: I am a Bradford guy who had no problem with their decision not to take Robert Griffin III. The Rams have had as good an offseason as anyone. The more I look at last season -- mix in Bradford's injuries, the bad line, having no weapons -- it was an impossible endeaver. Throw that away. Jeff Fisher is smart and has a history of bringing along guys slowly, of running Eddie George and playing defense. Schottenheimer did a ton of that with the Jets, maybe even too much, but he had to.
Sando: Right. Schottenheimer was trying to take off pressure from Mark Sanchez, at least until last season.
Williamson: Sanchez isn't close to Bradford. My concern with the Rams would be two years from now, if Bradford still does look like the first overall pick, will they take the reins off? Harnessing him back now, I have no problem with that. Win some games, lean on others. But will they allow him to be great when he is ready? They are conservative by nature.
Sando: Shorter term, the Rams haven't done anything to help Bradford in the playmaker department. They've actually gotten worse in that area after losing Brandon Lloyd to free agency.
Williamson: They will end up with Trent Richardson or Justin Blackmon in the draft, but it would have been nice to add some kind of veteran. Maybe Mario Manningham. At least a No. 2 type. They do have a lot of young guys from last year and maybe someone steps up, but it's not real exciting. I would not have paid what Pierre Garcon got, though. Robert Meachem got good money too. St. Louis is not the most attractive free-agent landing spot for a receiver right now. But the team is set up for the long term, at least. They will get a top-10-type stud wideout in the next year or two.
Sando: Thanks for the conversation, Matt. I'll be on the lookout for you next Football Today podcast, which posts right here each week. The next one goes live Monday.
More than 80 reporters and at least 31 tripods were in place for the epic Tim Tebow introductory news conference at New York Jets headquarters.
The Jets signed up for the full Tebow experience when acquiring the quarterback from Denver. They are about to discover what it's like to have a player with a larger national footprint than the franchise. But if the organization were serious about reinforcing Mark Sanchez as its starter, why hold a nationally televised news conference for his backup?
Perhaps it was unavoidable given the demand and the market in question. Having Tebow appear alone, without coach Rex Ryan or team brass, was a smart move by the Jets in light of Sanchez's standing as the starter.
I was nonetheless struck by the contrast between the Tebow treatment and what awaited Matt Flynn when the Seattle Seahawks signed him as their likely starter and potential franchise quarterback. There was no news conference for Flynn. The team made him available on a conference call and told him he'd have to compete with Tarvaris Jackson.
The Jets signed up for the full Tebow experience when acquiring the quarterback from Denver. They are about to discover what it's like to have a player with a larger national footprint than the franchise. But if the organization were serious about reinforcing Mark Sanchez as its starter, why hold a nationally televised news conference for his backup?
Perhaps it was unavoidable given the demand and the market in question. Having Tebow appear alone, without coach Rex Ryan or team brass, was a smart move by the Jets in light of Sanchez's standing as the starter.
I was nonetheless struck by the contrast between the Tebow treatment and what awaited Matt Flynn when the Seattle Seahawks signed him as their likely starter and potential franchise quarterback. There was no news conference for Flynn. The team made him available on a conference call and told him he'd have to compete with Tarvaris Jackson.
With Brian Schottenheimer in line to become the St. Louis Rams' offensive coordinator, I'll republish a chart we discussed recently. This one shows the New York Jets' offensive production with Schottenheiemer as coordinator.
About one year ago, our AFC East blog featured an item leading this way: "Brian Schottenheimer's prospects for being a head coach never have been higher."
That item noted that Schottenheimer had worked with Tony Banks, Jeff George, Drew Brees, Doug Flutie, Philip Rivers, Chad Pennington, Kellen Clemens, Brett Favre and Mark Sanchez over the years -- quite a varied group.
Clemens' presence on the Rams' roster right now could mean the team already has its top two quarterbacks for 2012, with Sam Bradford as the starter. Clemens would presumably know Schottenheimer's offense. That would enable him to assist Bradford and other players as the Rams learn a new system.
Opinions on Schottenheimer are mixed. Some think he became too predictable as a play caller and contributed to Sanchez's stunted development. A case could also be made that Schottenheimer did the best he could with a limited quarterback.
It's possible neither of those things is true. Those seeking context should check out this Newark Star-Ledger piece on Schottenheimer and the Jets from earlier in the 2011 season.
The Rams also interviewed former Oakland Raiders coach Hue Jackson for the role. They are also working on additional staff hires.
About one year ago, our AFC East blog featured an item leading this way: "Brian Schottenheimer's prospects for being a head coach never have been higher."
That item noted that Schottenheimer had worked with Tony Banks, Jeff George, Drew Brees, Doug Flutie, Philip Rivers, Chad Pennington, Kellen Clemens, Brett Favre and Mark Sanchez over the years -- quite a varied group.
Clemens' presence on the Rams' roster right now could mean the team already has its top two quarterbacks for 2012, with Sam Bradford as the starter. Clemens would presumably know Schottenheimer's offense. That would enable him to assist Bradford and other players as the Rams learn a new system.
Opinions on Schottenheimer are mixed. Some think he became too predictable as a play caller and contributed to Sanchez's stunted development. A case could also be made that Schottenheimer did the best he could with a limited quarterback.
It's possible neither of those things is true. Those seeking context should check out this Newark Star-Ledger piece on Schottenheimer and the Jets from earlier in the 2011 season.
The Rams also interviewed former Oakland Raiders coach Hue Jackson for the role. They are also working on additional staff hires.
Six of eight humans predicting NFL outcomes for ESPN cast their votes for the New York Giants over the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship game.
They were split on the 49ers and New Orleans Saints last week. I'll post my prediction Friday, along with the "You called it" item that usually runs on Thursdays (moved back this week after a power outage threw off my usual routine). In the meantime, here's a link to the most recent NFC West chat, followed by a few highlights:
I didn't realize til after the chat that the Flynn question was basically the only Seahawks-related one I fielded. Sorry about that. We've covered Flynn's situation previously.
They were split on the 49ers and New Orleans Saints last week. I'll post my prediction Friday, along with the "You called it" item that usually runs on Thursdays (moved back this week after a power outage threw off my usual routine). In the meantime, here's a link to the most recent NFC West chat, followed by a few highlights:
Thomas from Spokane, Wash., thinks the San Francisco 49ers might need a breakout game from Michael Crabtree or Kyle Williams to beat the New York Giants in the NFC Championship game.
Mike Sando: Crabtree is someone I initially thought needed to step up in this next game. We might also recall Kendall Hunter breaking a touchdown run against the Giants last time. He is someone to watch. Someone on ESPN or NFL Network was recently illustrating how the Giants used three safeties to help defend Vernon Davis in the last game. Alex Smith still completed 9 of 11 passes to tight ends in that game. Delanie Walker caught six passes for 69 yards. Davis had a 31-yard touchdown reception in that game. The fact that the Giants will try to take away Davis does not guarantee they will succeed. One question, though, is whether the 49ers need Davis to stick around in protection a little more. The 49ers need to keep Justin Tuck and those pass-rushers off Alex Smith.
D from Phoenix thinks the Arizona Cardinals will keep their top two quarterbacks, bring back Levi Brown, draft a right tackle, draft a guard, sign a linebacker, sign a receiver and select the best player available (with less regard for position) at No. 13 overall.
Mike Sando: Your thinking makes sense whether or not they bring back Levi Brown. They need a tackle. I would also endorse adding pass-rush help. A team can never have too much in that area. Look how much better the 49ers are after adding Aldon Smith.
Roland from Winnipeg wonders to what degree personnel (more than coaching) explains some of the struggles potential St. Louis Rams coordinators Brian Schottenheimer and Gregg Williams experienced recently.
Mike Sando: The fits would be good from a philosophical standpoint. Williams obviously knows defense. He's been hired as a head coach. I question whether blitzing so much is the way to go over time, but when you have Drew Brees as your quarterback and a 7,000-yard offense, you can take some chances. I've been a bit skeptical on Mark Sanchez for a while, so I might be more inclined to cut Schottenheimer some slack there. These would appear to be solid hires, not spectacular ones. Then again, Josh McDaniels was more of a spectacular one, and that didn't work out. Personnel matters most.
Matt from Green Bay posed as Packers backup Matt Flynn in asking what type of contract the Seattle Seahawks might offer him in free agency, and whether they would give him a fair shot at the starting job.
Mike Sando: The Seahawks believe in competition, but do they believe in Matt Flynn? If they did, would they have at least tried to acquire him a couple years ago, when they went after Charlie Whitehurst instead? They would have had the inside info on Flynn because their general manager was with the Packers when Green Bay drafted Flynn. I'm not convinced the Seahawks are itching to give Flynn a big contract. I do think Seattle would consider adding another prospect in the $4-5 million per year range, unless there's a college prospect the team intends to draft.
I didn't realize til after the chat that the Flynn question was basically the only Seahawks-related one I fielded. Sorry about that. We've covered Flynn's situation previously.
Schottenheimer and Rams' offensive future
January, 16, 2012
Jan 16
9:30
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Frustrated New York Jets fans might chuckle over the St. Louis Rams' interest in their team's ousted offensive coordinator, Brian Schottenheimer, for the same job in St. Louis.
Frustrated Miami Dolphins fans might feel similarly about the Jets hiring their team's former coach, Tony Sparano, as offensive coordinator.
Such is life in the NFL, where the scapegoats are often indistinguishable from the true villains. Was Schottenheimer the reason the Jets' offense went backward and the team finished 8-8? Tough to say.
Rams fans should know this: The Jets were not yet ready to cut ties with struggling quarterback Mark Sanchez. They weren't going to fire head coach Rex Ryan. They weren't going to stand pat, either, after their offense plummeted in the league rankings and Sanchez failed to develop on schedule.
Schottenheimer, once an occasional head coaching candidate, was the odd man out.
For the Rams, hiring Schottenheimer would return them to the general digit-based offensive system St. Louis ran with great success during the Mike Martz years. Sam Bradford would be learning a third scheme in three pro seasons. Then again, if Bradford had pleaded with Fisher to retain the previous system, the Rams could have kept Josh McDaniels, in theory.
Those seeking a better feel for Schottenheimer's coaching roots and what happened with Sanchez should check out Jenny Vrentas' piece in the Newark Star-Ledger from October. Basically, the Jets were asking more from Sanchez this season, and the results were insufficient.
Schottenheimer began his pro coaching career with the Rams in 1997, spent several years in the college ranks and then hit stride at the NFL level with San Diego beginning in 2002. He worked under Cam Cameron there, serving as quarterbacks coach for Drew Brees.
The Jets hired Schottenheimer in 2006. Reading through the ESPN.com story at the time will show just how circular these coaching hires can be. Fisher's former coordinator in Tennessee, Mike Heimerdinger, preceded Schottenheimer with the Jets. Schottenheimer beat out another familiar name, Pat Shurmur, for the Jets job.
The Rams appear unlikely to hire Schottenheimer or anyone else as coordinator without first making official Fisher's hiring as head coach. The sides are working out the particulars on a contract.
The chart shows Jets offensive stats under Schottenheimer. Sanchez was the quarterback for the three most recent seasons, when completion percentages fell.
Frustrated Miami Dolphins fans might feel similarly about the Jets hiring their team's former coach, Tony Sparano, as offensive coordinator.
Such is life in the NFL, where the scapegoats are often indistinguishable from the true villains. Was Schottenheimer the reason the Jets' offense went backward and the team finished 8-8? Tough to say.
Rams fans should know this: The Jets were not yet ready to cut ties with struggling quarterback Mark Sanchez. They weren't going to fire head coach Rex Ryan. They weren't going to stand pat, either, after their offense plummeted in the league rankings and Sanchez failed to develop on schedule.
Schottenheimer, once an occasional head coaching candidate, was the odd man out.
For the Rams, hiring Schottenheimer would return them to the general digit-based offensive system St. Louis ran with great success during the Mike Martz years. Sam Bradford would be learning a third scheme in three pro seasons. Then again, if Bradford had pleaded with Fisher to retain the previous system, the Rams could have kept Josh McDaniels, in theory.
Those seeking a better feel for Schottenheimer's coaching roots and what happened with Sanchez should check out Jenny Vrentas' piece in the Newark Star-Ledger from October. Basically, the Jets were asking more from Sanchez this season, and the results were insufficient.
Schottenheimer began his pro coaching career with the Rams in 1997, spent several years in the college ranks and then hit stride at the NFL level with San Diego beginning in 2002. He worked under Cam Cameron there, serving as quarterbacks coach for Drew Brees.
The Jets hired Schottenheimer in 2006. Reading through the ESPN.com story at the time will show just how circular these coaching hires can be. Fisher's former coordinator in Tennessee, Mike Heimerdinger, preceded Schottenheimer with the Jets. Schottenheimer beat out another familiar name, Pat Shurmur, for the Jets job.
The Rams appear unlikely to hire Schottenheimer or anyone else as coordinator without first making official Fisher's hiring as head coach. The sides are working out the particulars on a contract.
The chart shows Jets offensive stats under Schottenheimer. Sanchez was the quarterback for the three most recent seasons, when completion percentages fell.
Why young, ascending DBs can't get cocky
January, 11, 2012
Jan 11
2:21
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Mel Kiper Jr., in updating his draft-day grades for NFL teams for this Insider piece, says Seattle Seahawks rookie fifth-round pick Richard Sherman has helped to make the Seattle secondary "one of the best in the NFL in a really short period."
This is true. Sherman quickly served notice he could become one of the NFL's top corners. Fellow corner Brandon Browner and safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor also enjoyed strong seasons for Seattle.
Arizona also upgraded its secondary with cornerback Patrick Peterson. The 49ers added third-round corner Chris Culliver.
But before the NFC West's up-and-coming defensive backs get too cocky, they might want to check the 2012 list of opponents.
Every team in the division faces Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford next season. Seattle also draws Cam Newton. Arizona gets Matt Ryan and Michael Vick. The 49ers face Eli Manning and Drew Brees.
There will be plenty of opportunities for young NFC West defensive backs to prove their mettle -- and also to suffer through sophomore slumps.
In 2011, Seattle faced four quarterbacks outside the division who finished the season with more than 20 touchdown passes: Romo (31), Ryan (29), Manning (29) and Ben Roethlisberger (21). Injuries spared them from facing Jay Cutler or Vick, who failed to reach 20 touchdowns largely because they missed games.
The Seahawks are scheduled to face seven such quarterbacks outside the division in 2012, weighted heavily at the top: Rodgers (45), Stafford (41), Brady (39), Romo (31), Mark Sanchez (26), Ryan Fitzpatrick (24) and Newton (21).
Cutler could be healthy when the teams meet again in 2012. Sanchez and Fitzpatrick often struggled. Still, the top of that list is loaded.
This is true. Sherman quickly served notice he could become one of the NFL's top corners. Fellow corner Brandon Browner and safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor also enjoyed strong seasons for Seattle.
Arizona also upgraded its secondary with cornerback Patrick Peterson. The 49ers added third-round corner Chris Culliver.
But before the NFC West's up-and-coming defensive backs get too cocky, they might want to check the 2012 list of opponents.
Every team in the division faces Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford next season. Seattle also draws Cam Newton. Arizona gets Matt Ryan and Michael Vick. The 49ers face Eli Manning and Drew Brees.
There will be plenty of opportunities for young NFC West defensive backs to prove their mettle -- and also to suffer through sophomore slumps.
In 2011, Seattle faced four quarterbacks outside the division who finished the season with more than 20 touchdown passes: Romo (31), Ryan (29), Manning (29) and Ben Roethlisberger (21). Injuries spared them from facing Jay Cutler or Vick, who failed to reach 20 touchdowns largely because they missed games.
The Seahawks are scheduled to face seven such quarterbacks outside the division in 2012, weighted heavily at the top: Rodgers (45), Stafford (41), Brady (39), Romo (31), Mark Sanchez (26), Ryan Fitzpatrick (24) and Newton (21).
Cutler could be healthy when the teams meet again in 2012. Sanchez and Fitzpatrick often struggled. Still, the top of that list is loaded.
A few thoughts on Todd Haley's prospects
January, 11, 2012
Jan 11
9:57
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
A few quick thoughts on Adam Schefter's note about former Kansas City Chiefs head coach Todd Haley, a potential candidate to rejoin the Arizona Cardinals, first considering an opportunity with the New York Jets:
Should be an interesting day on the coaching front. Seems like we should learn more on Haley and, separately, Jeff Fisher.
- Does Haley feel as though the Arizona opportunity will be there for him no matter what? He's obviously considering other opportunities first. The Cardinals cleared a spot on their staff by firing quarterbacks coach Chris Miller. The Jets job would include the title of assistant head coach, according to Schefter. Russ Grimm holds that title in Arizona.
- Looks like Haley isn't sprinting back to the Cardinals to affix his name to an offense featuring Kevin Kolb and John Skelton as the primary quarterbacks. Then again, where are the Jets headed with Mark Sanchez?
- If Haley takes a job other than coordinator with the Jets -- Schefter says the job would be assistant head coach, with Tony Sparano as coordinator -- would he essentially become passing game coordinator? And what job could he have gotten in Arizona?
Should be an interesting day on the coaching front. Seems like we should learn more on Haley and, separately, Jeff Fisher.
No place like home for 49ers' Alex Smith
January, 10, 2012
Jan 10
8:56
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
The San Francisco 49ers' fourth-quarter comeback victories at Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Detroit and Seattle obscured an important part of quarterback Alex Smith's game this season. He was actually much better at home.
That came into focus for an NFC West blog regular, Crimsoncrew, upon reading an earlier item about Smith and the New Orleans Saints' Drew Brees. Smith's NFL passer rating at home is 99.8 (82.7 road). His Total QBR, which also takes into account sacks and game situations, stands at 71.6 out of 100 -- a league-high 42.3 points higher than his 29.3 QBR on the road.
"Other than the Cowboys game in Week 2, which was still a decent QBR performance, Smith has been at or above Pro Bowl level in every home game," Crimsoncrew wrote. "While I'm still a bit skeptical of the mysterious formula that is the QBR, in Smith's case I absolutely believe it's more accurate than passer rating because of the number of sacks he takes rather than taking chances with the ball. Despite that, Smith has more than twice as many TDs (12 to 5), only one more INT (3 to 2), and takes less than half as many sacks (13 to 31) at home as he does on the road."
Crimsoncrew's comments initiated a call to John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information, who did the research appearing in the chart. I then asked Smith about the disparity during the 49ers' media availability session Tuesday.
"It's a great question," Smith said, unaware that Crimsoncrew was the source behind it. "Obviously, crowd noise plays into that, especially on third down, when you’re trying to throw the ball on the road. Anywhere you go, you're going to be dealing with crowd noise. So, at home, to be able to use the cadence and be able to communicate a little easier verbally, obviously helps. I think that might play into it."
The 49ers are home against New Orleans in the divisional playoffs Saturday. Thank you, Crimsoncrew, for advancing the conversation.
That came into focus for an NFC West blog regular, Crimsoncrew, upon reading an earlier item about Smith and the New Orleans Saints' Drew Brees. Smith's NFL passer rating at home is 99.8 (82.7 road). His Total QBR, which also takes into account sacks and game situations, stands at 71.6 out of 100 -- a league-high 42.3 points higher than his 29.3 QBR on the road.
"Other than the Cowboys game in Week 2, which was still a decent QBR performance, Smith has been at or above Pro Bowl level in every home game," Crimsoncrew wrote. "While I'm still a bit skeptical of the mysterious formula that is the QBR, in Smith's case I absolutely believe it's more accurate than passer rating because of the number of sacks he takes rather than taking chances with the ball. Despite that, Smith has more than twice as many TDs (12 to 5), only one more INT (3 to 2), and takes less than half as many sacks (13 to 31) at home as he does on the road."
Crimsoncrew's comments initiated a call to John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information, who did the research appearing in the chart. I then asked Smith about the disparity during the 49ers' media availability session Tuesday.
"It's a great question," Smith said, unaware that Crimsoncrew was the source behind it. "Obviously, crowd noise plays into that, especially on third down, when you’re trying to throw the ball on the road. Anywhere you go, you're going to be dealing with crowd noise. So, at home, to be able to use the cadence and be able to communicate a little easier verbally, obviously helps. I think that might play into it."
The 49ers are home against New Orleans in the divisional playoffs Saturday. Thank you, Crimsoncrew, for advancing the conversation.
On Matt Barkley's decision to stay at USC
December, 22, 2011
12/22/11
5:17
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
The Seattle Seahawks and other NFL teams in the market for college quarterbacks will have to wait another year before taking a shot at Matt Barkley.
USC's record-setting quarterback will stay at USC.
Seahawks coach Pete Carroll, who famously disagreed with Mark Sanchez's decision to leave USC when Carroll was the Trojans' head coach, might have been in position to benefit had Barkley made a similar decision. But with the Seahawks improving to 7-7 with a shot at reaching 9-7, Carroll probably won't be drafting early enough to consider drafting one of the top-rated quarterbacks -- at least without trading up.
Todd McShay projected Barkely going to the Miami Dolphins at No. 8 in his first mock draft for 2012. Stanford's Andrew Luck and Baylor's Robert Griffin III were already gone at that point. He had Landry Jones going to Seattle at No. 16 as the fourth and final quarterback drafted in the first round.
No one knows how each team will value specific quarterbacks, but with one fewer projected first-rounder available, teams in the market for a quarterback face diminished options.
Seattle's situation is particularly intriguing. The team is pleased with Tarvaris Jackson's play this season, especially recently. Carroll wants to build the offense around Marshawn Lynch and the running game. The Seahawks are going to draft later than once anticipated. Subtracting Barkley from the mix makes it less likely Seattle will find a quarterback it values enough to draft in the first round.
What once seemed unthinkable -- Seattle waiting another year before drafting a quarterback early -- is starting to look more plausible. Should be an interesting draft.
USC's record-setting quarterback will stay at USC.
Seahawks coach Pete Carroll, who famously disagreed with Mark Sanchez's decision to leave USC when Carroll was the Trojans' head coach, might have been in position to benefit had Barkley made a similar decision. But with the Seahawks improving to 7-7 with a shot at reaching 9-7, Carroll probably won't be drafting early enough to consider drafting one of the top-rated quarterbacks -- at least without trading up.
Todd McShay projected Barkely going to the Miami Dolphins at No. 8 in his first mock draft for 2012. Stanford's Andrew Luck and Baylor's Robert Griffin III were already gone at that point. He had Landry Jones going to Seattle at No. 16 as the fourth and final quarterback drafted in the first round.
No one knows how each team will value specific quarterbacks, but with one fewer projected first-rounder available, teams in the market for a quarterback face diminished options.
Seattle's situation is particularly intriguing. The team is pleased with Tarvaris Jackson's play this season, especially recently. Carroll wants to build the offense around Marshawn Lynch and the running game. The Seahawks are going to draft later than once anticipated. Subtracting Barkley from the mix makes it less likely Seattle will find a quarterback it values enough to draft in the first round.
What once seemed unthinkable -- Seattle waiting another year before drafting a quarterback early -- is starting to look more plausible. Should be an interesting draft.
Around the NFC West: Fumbling it away
December, 1, 2011
12/01/11
8:40
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
St. Louis Rams quarterback Sam Bradford dropped back to pass on first down and had no idea the Arizona Cardinals' Sam Acho was about to sack him.
Acho had swiftly beaten left tackle Adam Goldberg. Bradford had been holding the ball in both hands, but he was just beginning his throwing motion when Acho wrapped both arms around Bradford at biceps level. The ball came out and Bradford had no chance at a recovery with Acho slamming him to the ground.
Paris Lenon recovered for the Cardinals, killing a Rams drive that had reached the Arizona 16-yard line.
Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says fumbles have been a big problem for Bradford this season. Thomas: "(Bradford) has fumbled 10 times in nine games this season and lost a league-high seven fumbles. The only players in the NFL even close to the latter total are quarterbacks Joe Flacco of Baltimore and Mark Sanchez of the New York Jets, who have five lost fumbles apiece this season." Noted: Improved pass protection, better receiving targets and a quick passing game would help Bradford significantly.
Also from Thomas: a closer look at those fumbles.
Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com updates the team's injury situation, noting that Tarvaris Jackson felt better this week than in the recent past. Coach Pete Carroll: "I think his confidence that he can get through it is there. And he’s throwing the day before the game, and he hasn’t thrown less than two days before the game in past weeks. So this is a big improvement for him." Noted: This comes as a surprise after Jackson seemed to struggle making throws against the Redskins. Jackson has three touchdowns and seven interceptions since returning from the injury in Week 8. He ranks 29th in completion percentage (55.0), 17th in yards per game (210.6), fourth in most interceptions and 27th in Total QBR (37.7) during that time, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Darren Urban of azcardinals.com checks in with Neil Hornsby of Pro Football Focus for thoughts on various Cardinals players' viability for Pro Bowl consideration. Hornsby named Adrian Wilson to his Pro Bowl team through Week 12. Hornsby via Urban: "Very consistent, very balanced all-round performance with underneath coverage being a strong suit. Giving up less than 50 percent completions when thrown at and has a passer rating of 66.8 into his coverage. Areas to work on: cutting back on penalties and getting better value than two hits and four pressures from his 46 blitzes." Noted: Wilson seems to have improved as the season has progressed. That comes as a surprise, in my view, given that Wilson suffered a torn biceps tendon during training camp. I wondered whether Wilson might be vulnerable as he tried to play with the injury. Instead, Wilson has been able to start every game, and his biceps seems to have improved. He has long since shed the protective wrap he had been wearing.
Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle asks whether opponents have solved the 49ers' offense in recent weeks. Branch: "Consider that in their past three games, the Niners have: scored four touchdowns, with just one coming on a drive of more than 50 yards. They have scored one touchdown on 26 drives originating in their own territory; converted 13 of 44 third downs (29.5 percent), a lower conversion rate than their season total of 30.6 percent, which ranks 30th in the NFL; and collected three touchdowns (and four field goals) in nine trips to the red zone." Noted: This is a fair question. I thought the 49ers were unusually sloppy in multiple phases during their 23-7 victory over Arizona. Their performance against Baltimore last week stood as their worst of the season. Facing the Rams should help this week.
Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News says Frank Gore needs only 22 yards to become the 49ers' all-time rushing leader.
Grant Cohn of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat says 49ers great Steve Young doubts the team can become elite offensively. Young: "What you learned last week is our defense can go anywhere, anytime, anyplace. We just pack it -- I don’t care if it’s on a two day rest, a bye week -- this defense is going to be good and down the road they’re going to be great. But the offense is not ready for prime time, generally in a playoff atmosphere. You see how they couldn’t protect. They just couldn’t kind of get going. And so it depends on who they play. They're going to have a home game against Detroit, Atlanta. ... It doesn’t always show early. To me it will show later when they need to score 31 against the Packers, they need to score 35 against the Saints. That’s a tough one there, and that’s where you ask your defenses, 'Look, these are the best offenses in the league. Keep them under three scores. You’ve got to do that.'"
Acho had swiftly beaten left tackle Adam Goldberg. Bradford had been holding the ball in both hands, but he was just beginning his throwing motion when Acho wrapped both arms around Bradford at biceps level. The ball came out and Bradford had no chance at a recovery with Acho slamming him to the ground.
Paris Lenon recovered for the Cardinals, killing a Rams drive that had reached the Arizona 16-yard line.
Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says fumbles have been a big problem for Bradford this season. Thomas: "(Bradford) has fumbled 10 times in nine games this season and lost a league-high seven fumbles. The only players in the NFL even close to the latter total are quarterbacks Joe Flacco of Baltimore and Mark Sanchez of the New York Jets, who have five lost fumbles apiece this season." Noted: Improved pass protection, better receiving targets and a quick passing game would help Bradford significantly.
Also from Thomas: a closer look at those fumbles.
Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com updates the team's injury situation, noting that Tarvaris Jackson felt better this week than in the recent past. Coach Pete Carroll: "I think his confidence that he can get through it is there. And he’s throwing the day before the game, and he hasn’t thrown less than two days before the game in past weeks. So this is a big improvement for him." Noted: This comes as a surprise after Jackson seemed to struggle making throws against the Redskins. Jackson has three touchdowns and seven interceptions since returning from the injury in Week 8. He ranks 29th in completion percentage (55.0), 17th in yards per game (210.6), fourth in most interceptions and 27th in Total QBR (37.7) during that time, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Darren Urban of azcardinals.com checks in with Neil Hornsby of Pro Football Focus for thoughts on various Cardinals players' viability for Pro Bowl consideration. Hornsby named Adrian Wilson to his Pro Bowl team through Week 12. Hornsby via Urban: "Very consistent, very balanced all-round performance with underneath coverage being a strong suit. Giving up less than 50 percent completions when thrown at and has a passer rating of 66.8 into his coverage. Areas to work on: cutting back on penalties and getting better value than two hits and four pressures from his 46 blitzes." Noted: Wilson seems to have improved as the season has progressed. That comes as a surprise, in my view, given that Wilson suffered a torn biceps tendon during training camp. I wondered whether Wilson might be vulnerable as he tried to play with the injury. Instead, Wilson has been able to start every game, and his biceps seems to have improved. He has long since shed the protective wrap he had been wearing.
Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle asks whether opponents have solved the 49ers' offense in recent weeks. Branch: "Consider that in their past three games, the Niners have: scored four touchdowns, with just one coming on a drive of more than 50 yards. They have scored one touchdown on 26 drives originating in their own territory; converted 13 of 44 third downs (29.5 percent), a lower conversion rate than their season total of 30.6 percent, which ranks 30th in the NFL; and collected three touchdowns (and four field goals) in nine trips to the red zone." Noted: This is a fair question. I thought the 49ers were unusually sloppy in multiple phases during their 23-7 victory over Arizona. Their performance against Baltimore last week stood as their worst of the season. Facing the Rams should help this week.
Cam Inman of the San Jose Mercury News says Frank Gore needs only 22 yards to become the 49ers' all-time rushing leader.
Grant Cohn of the Santa Rosa Press-Democrat says 49ers great Steve Young doubts the team can become elite offensively. Young: "What you learned last week is our defense can go anywhere, anytime, anyplace. We just pack it -- I don’t care if it’s on a two day rest, a bye week -- this defense is going to be good and down the road they’re going to be great. But the offense is not ready for prime time, generally in a playoff atmosphere. You see how they couldn’t protect. They just couldn’t kind of get going. And so it depends on who they play. They're going to have a home game against Detroit, Atlanta. ... It doesn’t always show early. To me it will show later when they need to score 31 against the Packers, they need to score 35 against the Saints. That’s a tough one there, and that’s where you ask your defenses, 'Look, these are the best offenses in the league. Keep them under three scores. You’ve got to do that.'"
Bringing pressure? Some QBs simply shrug
November, 29, 2011
11/29/11
6:50
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
The best NFL quarterbacks are good against standard and added pressure alike.
Aaron Rodgers comes to mind. The Green Bay Packers' quarterback leads the NFL in Total QBR when opponents send four or fewer pass-rushers, and also when they send five or more, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Alex Smith's stronger production against five or more pass-rushers has stood out all season.
Multiple factors can produce such a disparity. A quick-thinking quarterback armed with a strong game plan and a solid protection scheme can have an advantage against added pressure. Quarterbacks working behind weaker offensive lines could suffer against standard pressure if opponents got to them without sacrificing coverage. Having additional players in coverage affords defenses with additional combinations in coverage, another consideration.
The chart immediately below ranks quarterbacks by the largest QBR disparity when facing five or more pass-rushers vs. four or fewer. Smith and Arizona's Kevin Kolb are among 11 quarterbacks with higher QBR scores against five or more rushers. They have done better against pressure, in theory. Ranking higher on the list isn't necessarily desirable; like Rodgers, a top quarterback should produce in both areas.
Fifty is an average score, with 100 as the limit.
QBR differential is an imperfect measure because point differentials nearer the margins (zero and 100) carry more significance than they do nearer the middle of the range. But the disparities are still helpful in showing how quarterbacks perform, in general, across these situations.
Rex Grossman, who heads the first chart, completed 9 of 12 passes for 117 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions and one sack when the Seahawks sent five or more rushers against him Sunday. He completed 17 of 23 passes for 197 yards with one touchdown, two interceptions and no sacks against standard pressure.
The final chart shows the 22 qualifying quarterbacks with better QBR numbers when facing four or fewer pass-rushers, again ranked by percentage difference.
Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson and St. Louis' Sam Bradford show up on this list. There is Rodgers, down at the bottom, nearly equally strong in each situation.
Aaron Rodgers comes to mind. The Green Bay Packers' quarterback leads the NFL in Total QBR when opponents send four or fewer pass-rushers, and also when they send five or more, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Alex Smith's stronger production against five or more pass-rushers has stood out all season.
- Smith vs. four or fewer rushers: six touchdowns, four interceptions and 16 sacks in 222 dropbacks, with a 47.7 QBR (50 is average) and an 84.7 NFL passer rating.
- Smith vs. five or more: seven touchdowns, one interception and 14 sacks in 106 dropbacks, with a 57.2 QBR and 105.9 NFL rating.
Multiple factors can produce such a disparity. A quick-thinking quarterback armed with a strong game plan and a solid protection scheme can have an advantage against added pressure. Quarterbacks working behind weaker offensive lines could suffer against standard pressure if opponents got to them without sacrificing coverage. Having additional players in coverage affords defenses with additional combinations in coverage, another consideration.
The chart immediately below ranks quarterbacks by the largest QBR disparity when facing five or more pass-rushers vs. four or fewer. Smith and Arizona's Kevin Kolb are among 11 quarterbacks with higher QBR scores against five or more rushers. They have done better against pressure, in theory. Ranking higher on the list isn't necessarily desirable; like Rodgers, a top quarterback should produce in both areas.
Fifty is an average score, with 100 as the limit.
QBR differential is an imperfect measure because point differentials nearer the margins (zero and 100) carry more significance than they do nearer the middle of the range. But the disparities are still helpful in showing how quarterbacks perform, in general, across these situations.
Rex Grossman, who heads the first chart, completed 9 of 12 passes for 117 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions and one sack when the Seahawks sent five or more rushers against him Sunday. He completed 17 of 23 passes for 197 yards with one touchdown, two interceptions and no sacks against standard pressure.
The final chart shows the 22 qualifying quarterbacks with better QBR numbers when facing four or fewer pass-rushers, again ranked by percentage difference.
Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson and St. Louis' Sam Bradford show up on this list. There is Rodgers, down at the bottom, nearly equally strong in each situation.
Cloudy future for Rams 2009 first-rounder
November, 25, 2011
11/25/11
3:11
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
The St. Louis Rams placed right tackle Jason Smith on injured reserve Friday, citing concussion-related symptoms.
It's fair to wonder whether Smith has played his final game with the team after three seasons.
The contract Smith signed as the second overall choice in the 2009 NFL draft carries a $10 million salary for next season, money reflecting expectations Smith would become an elite left tackle. Instead, Smith as become an inconsistent right tackle with injury concerns relating to concussions. He will have missed 19 of 48 games to injury once this season concludes.
The 2009 draft produced more misses than hits early. Smith, Tyson Jackson, Aaron Curry, Andre Smith and Darrius Heyward-Bey were all chosen among the top seven picks. So was Mark Sanchez, who has enjoyed team success without becoming a consistent quarterback.
Jason Smith's deal runs through the 2014 season, which is a voidable year.
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It's fair to wonder whether Smith has played his final game with the team after three seasons.
The contract Smith signed as the second overall choice in the 2009 NFL draft carries a $10 million salary for next season, money reflecting expectations Smith would become an elite left tackle. Instead, Smith as become an inconsistent right tackle with injury concerns relating to concussions. He will have missed 19 of 48 games to injury once this season concludes.
The 2009 draft produced more misses than hits early. Smith, Tyson Jackson, Aaron Curry, Andre Smith and Darrius Heyward-Bey were all chosen among the top seven picks. So was Mark Sanchez, who has enjoyed team success without becoming a consistent quarterback.
Jason Smith's deal runs through the 2014 season, which is a voidable year.
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Whether 49ers could succeed in playoffs
November, 3, 2011
11/03/11
6:46
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
It's tough to say the 6-1 San Francisco 49ers aren't getting respect.
They were second in ESPN's most recent NFL Power Rankings.
Unlike more established teams, the 49ers still invite skepticism for getting to 6-1 with an offense that ranks 23rd in yards per game, 26th in third-down conversion rate and 31st in passing yards.
Two words sum up the skepticism: Alex Smith.
"Normally, in the playoffs, you get in a game somewhere along the line where your offense has to make plays and your quarterback has to make throws," NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell told KNBR radio in San Francisco recently, summing up the prevailing logic. "We'll see what happens."
Let's take a closer look at the premise with an eye toward whether the 49ers have what it takes offensively to be better than good:
I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on whether the 49ers can win playoff games with their current offense in the context of everything else -- their defense, special teams, running game and likely opponents. I wouldn't write them off just because Smith is their quarterback.
Take a look at what happened in the playoffs last season.
Peyton Manning's Colts and Tom Brady's Patriots lost to a New York Jets team that has generally sought to run the ball, play strong defense and minimize the impact of its quarterback. Mark Sanchez was mediocre against the Colts and good against the Patriots.
When the Jets finally lost to Pittsburgh in the championship round, Sanchez finished the game with 233 yards, two touchdowns and a 102.2 NFL passer rating. The Steelers held a 166-70 edge in rushing and scored with a fumble return, helping them win despite no touchdowns, two interceptions and a 35.5 passer rating from Ben Roethlisberger.
The 49ers would be better off with Rodgers, Brees or another Pro Bowl passer, of course. But they're doing exceptionally well without one and could, in my view, advance in the playoffs with the right matchup.
The chart shows where the 49ers rank in fewest yards per point among 160 offenses since 2007. I've included figures for the other NFC West teams this season. The St. Louis Rams rank 159th out of the 160 offenses. Only their 2009 offense was worse (26.45 vs. 26.30 yards per offensive point).
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They were second in ESPN's most recent NFL Power Rankings.
Unlike more established teams, the 49ers still invite skepticism for getting to 6-1 with an offense that ranks 23rd in yards per game, 26th in third-down conversion rate and 31st in passing yards.
Two words sum up the skepticism: Alex Smith.
"Normally, in the playoffs, you get in a game somewhere along the line where your offense has to make plays and your quarterback has to make throws," NFL Films analyst Greg Cosell told KNBR radio in San Francisco recently, summing up the prevailing logic. "We'll see what happens."
Let's take a closer look at the premise with an eye toward whether the 49ers have what it takes offensively to be better than good:
- Are the 49ers scoring enough? Their offense has averaged 23.9 points per game. That figure, which discounts return touchdowns and safeties, ranks seventh in the NFL this season. Green Bay averaged 22.8 points per game on offense during the 2010 regular season, then won the Super Bowl. Philadelphia, New England and Indianapolis averaged more, but none of those teams won a playoff game.
- The 49ers are extremely efficient. It's unusual for an offense to average 23.9 points per game without gaining many yards. How unusual? Think of it this way: The 49ers gain 12.95 yards per point on average, the third-lowest figure among 160 offenses since 2007. That is good and bad. The New England Patriots gained 12.16 yards per point in 2007, when they went undefeated. They averaged 12.54 last season, when they went 14-2. Those New England offenses averaged 33.8 (2007) and 29.0 (2010) points per game. They were far more prolific. But it's tough to argue with the 49ers' efficiency.
- The playoffs are different, but how much? Six of 11 winning teams scored at least 30 points during playoff games last season. The 49ers are unusually strong on defense and special teams. They might not need to score as many points as other teams. Consider that 17 points would have won three of four wild-card games last season. Twenty-five points would have won every game in the divisional and championship rounds. Green Bay won the Super Bowl, 31-25.
- Back to the yards per point thing. Since 2007, nine of the top 10 offenses in fewest yards per point scored at least 25.8 points per game. The current 49ers, at 23.9 points per game, were the exception. That might tell us the 49ers are a special team, or it could suggest they're on an unsustainable path.
- Selective QB play has been enough. The 49ers have taken pressure off Smith. They aren't asking him to carry the team. Smith has responded by stepping up selectively, including during key moments of the 49ers' three fourth-quarter comeback victories this season. Smith is not going to carry the offense in a playoff game the way Kurt Warner and Aaron Rodgers did so memorably after the 2009 season.
- Short fields are helping. The 49ers rank second to the New York Jets in average field position after kickoff returns. Their average is the 25.4-yard line. The 49ers rank second to the Cincinnati Bengals in average field position for all drive starts (their own 31.2). That means they have had less ground to cover to reach the end zone or get into field-goal range. David Akers has made all three field-goal tries from 50 yards or longer, making him one of three kickers to make every attempt from that distance this season.
- Capacity for improvement. The 49ers averaged 214 yards per game over their first three games. They have averaged 381 yards per game over their subsequent four. Their average for yards per point on offense has risen from around 11.5 over the first three games to more than 14.0 in the last four games. They've been getting less "efficient" while becoming more productive. That seems like a good thing.
I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on whether the 49ers can win playoff games with their current offense in the context of everything else -- their defense, special teams, running game and likely opponents. I wouldn't write them off just because Smith is their quarterback.
Take a look at what happened in the playoffs last season.
Peyton Manning's Colts and Tom Brady's Patriots lost to a New York Jets team that has generally sought to run the ball, play strong defense and minimize the impact of its quarterback. Mark Sanchez was mediocre against the Colts and good against the Patriots.
When the Jets finally lost to Pittsburgh in the championship round, Sanchez finished the game with 233 yards, two touchdowns and a 102.2 NFL passer rating. The Steelers held a 166-70 edge in rushing and scored with a fumble return, helping them win despite no touchdowns, two interceptions and a 35.5 passer rating from Ben Roethlisberger.
The 49ers would be better off with Rodgers, Brees or another Pro Bowl passer, of course. But they're doing exceptionally well without one and could, in my view, advance in the playoffs with the right matchup.
The chart shows where the 49ers rank in fewest yards per point among 160 offenses since 2007. I've included figures for the other NFC West teams this season. The St. Louis Rams rank 159th out of the 160 offenses. Only their 2009 offense was worse (26.45 vs. 26.30 yards per offensive point).
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Alex Cool? Smith leads NFL in comebacks
November, 2, 2011
11/02/11
9:58
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Grading Alex Smith's play during the San Francisco 49ers' 6-1 start has become one of the more fascinating pursuits of this 2011 NFC West season.
Smith, long a divisive subject among 49ers fans, remains one even during the team's best start since 1998.
It's easy to see why.
Smith ranks among the top 10 quarterbacks in NFL passer rating. He has led three fourth-quarter comeback victories, all on the road. Yet he ranks only 18th in yards per attempt and 24th in yards per game. And despite occasionally setting a high standard for Total QBR, Smith ranks only 24th in the ESPN statistic measuring how quarterbacks impact their teams' chances for winning.
We've had almost as much fun debating the merits of QBR as we've had debating all things Smith, but any quarterback stat ranking Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees above all others, with Tim Tebow dead last, must be onto something.
Let's set aside the stats for a moment. Fourth-quarter comeback victories have long served as the measure of a quarterback's mettle. Pro Football Reference has done outstanding work in defining and validating them. From their work, we're able to see all fourth-quarter comeback victories for the 49ers since 1960. We can also generate a list for all NFL quarterbacks this season -- a list showing Smith atop the NFL with three, all on the road.
The chart breaks down 2011 fourth-quarter comeback victories by quarterback and venue. Smith and the New York Giants lead the league with three. Smith is the only one with three on the road. A quick look at them:
Now, on to the chart ...
Smith, long a divisive subject among 49ers fans, remains one even during the team's best start since 1998.
It's easy to see why.
Smith ranks among the top 10 quarterbacks in NFL passer rating. He has led three fourth-quarter comeback victories, all on the road. Yet he ranks only 18th in yards per attempt and 24th in yards per game. And despite occasionally setting a high standard for Total QBR, Smith ranks only 24th in the ESPN statistic measuring how quarterbacks impact their teams' chances for winning.
We've had almost as much fun debating the merits of QBR as we've had debating all things Smith, but any quarterback stat ranking Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees above all others, with Tim Tebow dead last, must be onto something.
Let's set aside the stats for a moment. Fourth-quarter comeback victories have long served as the measure of a quarterback's mettle. Pro Football Reference has done outstanding work in defining and validating them. From their work, we're able to see all fourth-quarter comeback victories for the 49ers since 1960. We can also generate a list for all NFL quarterbacks this season -- a list showing Smith atop the NFL with three, all on the road.
The chart breaks down 2011 fourth-quarter comeback victories by quarterback and venue. Smith and the New York Giants lead the league with three. Smith is the only one with three on the road. A quick look at them:
- At Cincinnati, Week 3: With the 49ers trailing 6-3 in the fourth quarter, Smith completes 4 of 8 passes for 48 yards during a 10-play, 72-yard touchdown drive. The 49ers win the game, 13-8.
- At Philadelphia, Week 4: The 49ers won this one in the fourth quarter on the strength of their running game and defense. Smith completed 9 of 9 passes for 179 yards and two touchdowns in the third quarter, when the 49ers erased most of a 20-point deficit. He completed 4 of 8 passes for 22 yards, no first downs and a sack in the final 15 minutes.
- At Detroit, Week 6: Smith and the passing game struggled most of the way, but with the game on the line, Smith found Delanie Walker for the go-ahead touchdown on a fourth-down play with 1:56 remaining.
Now, on to the chart ...

