NFC West: Matt Cassel
RENTON, Wash. -- Seattle Seahawks coach Pete Carroll was definitely joking when he said Deuce Lutui, the team's new guard, checked in at 208 pounds for the offseason conditioning program.
But when Carroll indicated Lutui had indeed dropped considerable weight, the coach was serious. Carroll also dropped a shocker when he said Lutui, notorious for his weight troubles while with the Arizona Cardinals, had become a vegan.
That's right, a vegan.
There were so many other angles to cover following the Seahawks' 45-minute voluntary workout for veterans Friday, but none could match this one for the double-take factor. Lutui's long history of weight issues invite skepticism. I followed up with Carroll twice in an effort to make sure the coach wasn't joking. He stuck with his story, but conceivably could have been kidding.
Weight troubles had, after all, derailed Lutui's signing with Cincinnati last offseason, leading the Bengals to fail him on a physical examination. The Cardinals valued Lutui as a starter for years, but they grew weary of the weight issues, relegating the former second-round draft choice to a backup role in 2011.
Lutui signed with Seattle this offseason and was reunited with Carroll, his former coach at USC. He was also reunited with the Trojans' former strength coach, Chris Carlisle.
"Deuce Lutui, he is a joy to have out here," Carroll said. "He has got such a great spirit. He always did. We looked at opportunities to get him on this club just because of that. He looks good. His weight is down -- I mean, way down from where he can be. He's a vegan, too, now, so he has really made a big turn, if you can imagine, yes."
Several reporters blurted out responses conveying surprise.
"Yeah, I wouldn't make that up," Carroll said.
Or would he? I'm not buying this one all the way. Lutui was not available for interviews. The team had a small window between its on-field session and meetings. Carroll, Flynn and Jackson were the ones made available.
The offensive players wore dark jerseys Friday, so there might have been a slimming factor to the visual, but all in all, I thought Lutui looked pretty good.
On to other subjects:
That's it for now. The NFC West chat begins at 3 p.m. ET.
But when Carroll indicated Lutui had indeed dropped considerable weight, the coach was serious. Carroll also dropped a shocker when he said Lutui, notorious for his weight troubles while with the Arizona Cardinals, had become a vegan.
That's right, a vegan.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Greg TrottCoach Pete Carroll says the Seahawks were happy to add former Cardinals guard Deuce Lutui to the roster.
AP Photo/Greg TrottCoach Pete Carroll says the Seahawks were happy to add former Cardinals guard Deuce Lutui to the roster.Weight troubles had, after all, derailed Lutui's signing with Cincinnati last offseason, leading the Bengals to fail him on a physical examination. The Cardinals valued Lutui as a starter for years, but they grew weary of the weight issues, relegating the former second-round draft choice to a backup role in 2011.
Lutui signed with Seattle this offseason and was reunited with Carroll, his former coach at USC. He was also reunited with the Trojans' former strength coach, Chris Carlisle.
"Deuce Lutui, he is a joy to have out here," Carroll said. "He has got such a great spirit. He always did. We looked at opportunities to get him on this club just because of that. He looks good. His weight is down -- I mean, way down from where he can be. He's a vegan, too, now, so he has really made a big turn, if you can imagine, yes."
Several reporters blurted out responses conveying surprise.
"Yeah, I wouldn't make that up," Carroll said.
Or would he? I'm not buying this one all the way. Lutui was not available for interviews. The team had a small window between its on-field session and meetings. Carroll, Flynn and Jackson were the ones made available.
The offensive players wore dark jerseys Friday, so there might have been a slimming factor to the visual, but all in all, I thought Lutui looked pretty good.
On to other subjects:
- The quarterback competition between Matt Flynn and Tarvaris Jackson is under way, with third-round choice Russell Wilson scheduled to join the fun once rookies report. Jackson, as the incumbent, took the initial snaps and was the first to speak with reporters afterward. But Carroll stressed that this was the most open competition he'd had since Matt Leinart and Matt Cassel were competing at USC.
- Quick initial impression on Flynn and Jackson: Flynn appeared more accurate, while Jackson appeared to have the stronger arm. There wasn't much to go on, but those impressions line up with expectations.
- Third- or fourth-team quarterback Josh Portis isn't getting many reps. The team is giving additional reps to Flynn, helping him to learn the system.
- Receivers Sidney Rice and Mike Williams were not present. They're rehabbing from injuries. Cornerback Walter Thurmond watched from a scooter, his injured lower leg in a boot. Tackle James Carpenter watched practice, but his knee will not be ready until the season, if then. Russell Okung and John Moffitt participated. Rules mandating light on-field duty with no contact during the second phase of the voluntary conditioning program are allowing Okung and Moffitt to ease their way back from injuries.
- Newly signed defensive tackle Jason Jones is tall (6-foot-5) and lean (276 pounds). One look at him and there's no question of his primary role. It'll be as a pass-rusher.
- Receiver Golden Tate, trying to build on a strong finish to last season, made a one-handed grab in stride. Catching the ball in an environment so relaxed means little, but it beats the alternative, especially for a young player trying to build momentum.
That's it for now. The NFC West chat begins at 3 p.m. ET.
Justin from Davis, Calif., asks whether there's something more to Alex Smith. Specifically, can he become truly elite? "What is the hope of someone transforming into a superstar quarterback after so many non-performing years?"
Mike Sando: Before analyzing Smith as a player, let's tip our caps to him for helping the coordinated search for a missing Bay Area teenager over the weekend. His presence helped bring awareness to the search beyond whatever direct assistance he provided. That is commendable.
As for your question, Justin, let's more clearly define the word "elite" for these purposes. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees strike me as truly elite quarterbacks. Smith probably is not going to suddenly put up 30-40 touchdown passes per season.
Smith was most remarkable last season for avoiding mistakes. His interception percentage, 1.1, was third-lowest in NFL history for a player with at least 400 pass attempts. His numbers were good -- 17 touchdowns, five interceptions, 90.7 NFL passer rating -- but far from prolific. They were not elite QB numbers. They were smart, cautious numbers.
The percentages say Smith will have a hard time
maintaining such a low interception rate. However, I do think it's possible for him to improve upon his 2011 numbers. Matt Cassel is not an elite quarterback, but he had a 27-7 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions in 2010. Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman have put together similar ratios in recent seasons.
The 49ers probably will not ask Smith to carry their team. They will want him to protect the football. But with more opportunistic play in the red zone and improved efficiency on third down, Smith can make progress in 2012.
Mike Sando: Before analyzing Smith as a player, let's tip our caps to him for helping the coordinated search for a missing Bay Area teenager over the weekend. His presence helped bring awareness to the search beyond whatever direct assistance he provided. That is commendable.
As for your question, Justin, let's more clearly define the word "elite" for these purposes. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees strike me as truly elite quarterbacks. Smith probably is not going to suddenly put up 30-40 touchdown passes per season.
Smith was most remarkable last season for avoiding mistakes. His interception percentage, 1.1, was third-lowest in NFL history for a player with at least 400 pass attempts. His numbers were good -- 17 touchdowns, five interceptions, 90.7 NFL passer rating -- but far from prolific. They were not elite QB numbers. They were smart, cautious numbers.
The percentages say Smith will have a hard time
maintaining such a low interception rate. However, I do think it's possible for him to improve upon his 2011 numbers. Matt Cassel is not an elite quarterback, but he had a 27-7 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions in 2010. Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman have put together similar ratios in recent seasons.
The 49ers probably will not ask Smith to carry their team. They will want him to protect the football. But with more opportunistic play in the red zone and improved efficiency on third down, Smith can make progress in 2012.
The Washington Redskins look like an early favorite to acquire the second overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft from the St. Louis Rams.
Jim Thomas' update for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch covers quite a few angles.
Another came to mind while reading the piece. What if the Redskins were the only team drafting among the top six with serious interest in Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III?
Such a thought seemed improbable while Griffin was lighting up the NFL scouting combine recently, but a post-combine report from Fox Sports' John Czarnecki lingers in my mind.
According to Czarnecki, Browns president Mike Holmgren and the team's coaching staff aren't necessarily sold on Griffin.
Under this thinking, Holmgren would prefer a quarterback to fit his system, not the other way around. Griffin's winning personality and phenomenal athleticism might make him a great prospect, but would the Browns see him as an ideal fit for their system -- enough so to justify parting with significant draft capital to get him?
Holmgren is not the Browns' coach, but he is particular about his offense and quarterbacks. He hired Pat Shurmur as head coach in part because Shurmur shared his vision for offense. Then again, Shurmur worked under Andy Reid in Philadelphia. Reid has obviously adapted his offense for a range of quarterbacks, notably Michael Vick.
All of this might be over-thinking things. My AFC North colleague, Jamison Hensley, thinks the Browns have little choice but to make a strong play for Griffin. That would serve the Rams well.
But if the Browns aren't all in for Griffin, what team represents the Redskins' competition for the second pick?
Minnesota picks third and Tampa Bay picks fifth. Both teams have invested in quarterbacks recently. Jacksonville, which picks seventh, has publicly committed to Blaine Gabbert as its franchise quarterback. Miami picks eighth, and as Thomas notes, the Dolphins might not be interested in dealing with St. Louis after the teams battled over Jeff Fisher. Miami also has ties to free-agent quarterback Matt Flynn.
Carolina picks ninth and already has Cam Newton. Buffalo picks 10th and has already publicly ruled out trading up for Griffin. Kansas City holds the 11th choice and could have interest even though Chiefs general manager Scott Pioli has said Matt Cassel is the clear starter. Seattle (12th) and Arizona (13th) hold the next two picks, and both can forget about the Rams sending a franchise quarterback their way.
Griffin might be worth taking second overall. That doesn't necessarily mean the market will allow the Rams to maximize the value of that choice.
The Rams do not necessarily need to make a killing in a trade. Griffin isn't in their plans, so they could conceivably get the player they really wanted a little later, plus whatever comes their way by trade. That would still represent a net gain.
Things to consider while the Rams weigh their options.
Jim Thomas' update for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch covers quite a few angles.
Another came to mind while reading the piece. What if the Redskins were the only team drafting among the top six with serious interest in Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III?
Such a thought seemed improbable while Griffin was lighting up the NFL scouting combine recently, but a post-combine report from Fox Sports' John Czarnecki lingers in my mind.
According to Czarnecki, Browns president Mike Holmgren and the team's coaching staff aren't necessarily sold on Griffin.
Under this thinking, Holmgren would prefer a quarterback to fit his system, not the other way around. Griffin's winning personality and phenomenal athleticism might make him a great prospect, but would the Browns see him as an ideal fit for their system -- enough so to justify parting with significant draft capital to get him?
Holmgren is not the Browns' coach, but he is particular about his offense and quarterbacks. He hired Pat Shurmur as head coach in part because Shurmur shared his vision for offense. Then again, Shurmur worked under Andy Reid in Philadelphia. Reid has obviously adapted his offense for a range of quarterbacks, notably Michael Vick.
All of this might be over-thinking things. My AFC North colleague, Jamison Hensley, thinks the Browns have little choice but to make a strong play for Griffin. That would serve the Rams well.
But if the Browns aren't all in for Griffin, what team represents the Redskins' competition for the second pick?
Minnesota picks third and Tampa Bay picks fifth. Both teams have invested in quarterbacks recently. Jacksonville, which picks seventh, has publicly committed to Blaine Gabbert as its franchise quarterback. Miami picks eighth, and as Thomas notes, the Dolphins might not be interested in dealing with St. Louis after the teams battled over Jeff Fisher. Miami also has ties to free-agent quarterback Matt Flynn.
Carolina picks ninth and already has Cam Newton. Buffalo picks 10th and has already publicly ruled out trading up for Griffin. Kansas City holds the 11th choice and could have interest even though Chiefs general manager Scott Pioli has said Matt Cassel is the clear starter. Seattle (12th) and Arizona (13th) hold the next two picks, and both can forget about the Rams sending a franchise quarterback their way.
Griffin might be worth taking second overall. That doesn't necessarily mean the market will allow the Rams to maximize the value of that choice.
The Rams do not necessarily need to make a killing in a trade. Griffin isn't in their plans, so they could conceivably get the player they really wanted a little later, plus whatever comes their way by trade. That would still represent a net gain.
Things to consider while the Rams weigh their options.
One quarterback from the 2005 NFL draft class remains in the playoffs this season.
See if you can find him in the chart. A hint: Alex Smith is his name.
See if you can find him in the chart. A hint: Alex Smith is his name.
When coaches heap praise upon their QBs
December, 22, 2011
12/22/11
8:02
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Hearing Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh gush about their starting quarterbacks can create confusion over their teams' intentions.
How serious are Carroll's Seattle Seahawks and Harbaugh's San Francisco 49ers about moving into the future with Tarvaris Jackson and Alex Smith as their respective quarterbacks?
Both coaches have had their quarterbacks' backs, and then some. Even before Seattle rebounded from a 2-6 start to reach 7-7, Carroll said he could envision Jackson as the Seahawks' long-term starter. Harbaugh recently called Smith a Pro Bowl-caliber player and long-term answer at quarterback for the 49ers.
What coaches say does not always line up with what NFL owners pay.
Smith has earned a raise, but would the 49ers pay him what Pro Bowl quarterbacks typically earn?
Fourteen QBs earned Pro Bowl honors over the 2009-10 seasons: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Cassel, Brett Favre, David Garrard, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Michael Vick and Vince Young.
Most were playing under and/or subsequently earned massive contracts.
Jackson is entering the final year of a contract that scheduled to pay him $4 million in base salary. Smith is earning $4 million in base salary this season.
Those salaries represent good money for backup quarterbacks.
The 49ers should be able to keep Smith without paying him what those Pro Bowl passers earned. They've already paid millions to him as the No. 1 overall choice in the 2005 NFL draft. Smith has expressed in the past an interest in rewarding the 49ers for an investment that did not work out as intended before this season.
Smith has proven to be a good fit for the 49ers under Harbaugh. Jackson is fitting with Seattle under Carroll. I suspect both have come on strong with their public support to combat lingering negative perceptions about both quarterbacks.
If Jackson or Smith were obviously franchise quarterbacks and long-term solutions behind center, their coaches wouldn't have to convince anyone. It would be obvious. The praise from Carroll and Harbaugh has likely helped both quarterbacks exceed outside expectations no matter what their teams have in mind for them beyond this season.
How serious are Carroll's Seattle Seahawks and Harbaugh's San Francisco 49ers about moving into the future with Tarvaris Jackson and Alex Smith as their respective quarterbacks?
Both coaches have had their quarterbacks' backs, and then some. Even before Seattle rebounded from a 2-6 start to reach 7-7, Carroll said he could envision Jackson as the Seahawks' long-term starter. Harbaugh recently called Smith a Pro Bowl-caliber player and long-term answer at quarterback for the 49ers.
What coaches say does not always line up with what NFL owners pay.
Smith has earned a raise, but would the 49ers pay him what Pro Bowl quarterbacks typically earn?
Fourteen QBs earned Pro Bowl honors over the 2009-10 seasons: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Cassel, Brett Favre, David Garrard, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Michael Vick and Vince Young.
Most were playing under and/or subsequently earned massive contracts.
Jackson is entering the final year of a contract that scheduled to pay him $4 million in base salary. Smith is earning $4 million in base salary this season.
Those salaries represent good money for backup quarterbacks.
The 49ers should be able to keep Smith without paying him what those Pro Bowl passers earned. They've already paid millions to him as the No. 1 overall choice in the 2005 NFL draft. Smith has expressed in the past an interest in rewarding the 49ers for an investment that did not work out as intended before this season.
Smith has proven to be a good fit for the 49ers under Harbaugh. Jackson is fitting with Seattle under Carroll. I suspect both have come on strong with their public support to combat lingering negative perceptions about both quarterbacks.
If Jackson or Smith were obviously franchise quarterbacks and long-term solutions behind center, their coaches wouldn't have to convince anyone. It would be obvious. The praise from Carroll and Harbaugh has likely helped both quarterbacks exceed outside expectations no matter what their teams have in mind for them beyond this season.
The Arizona Cardinals have a 5-1 record when quarterback John Skelton plays this season.
They are 2-6 when he does not.
The disparity raises questions about how the team should proceed if doctors clear starter Kevin Kolb to return this week from a concussion. The numbers say Kolb or just about anyone else should start, but the team might want to keep Skelton around for fourth quarters and overtimes.
Skelton, who played a leading role in the Cardinals' comeback from a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit Sunday, owns four game-winning drives after third quarters in his last eight appearances. But he has been much worse than average earlier in games.
In fact, Skelton ranks last among 36 qualifying quarterbacks in first-quarter Total QBR this season, posting a 6.3 score that lags far behind average (50) on a 100-point scale. Skelton improves to 28th in second quarters (32.0) and 28th in third quarters (35.9) before making a striking transformation. Skelton ranks 12th in fourth-quarter QBR (66.5) and ninth in fourth quarters and overtimes combined (71.4).
That 71.4 figure in fourth quarters and overtimes ranks just ahead of those for Tom Brady (68.2), Matt Cassel (66.1), Matt Ryan (65.2) and, yes, Tim Tebow (63.0).
Tebow outranks Skelton in fourth-quarter QBR, 73.5 to 66.5, but Skelton has done more to help his team win in overtimes.. The Cardinals are 3-0 in overtime games this season, including 2-0 with Skelton. They visit Cincinnati in Week 16.
Quick thoughts on how NFC West passers graded out in Week 15 according to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point:
The chart below shows how quarterbacks from games involving NFC West teams fared in Total QBR for Week 15.
The clutch-weight average column reflects game situations, not how well players performed during those situations. Any clutch average above 1.0 reflects a quarterback performing in higher-pressure situations.
They are 2-6 when he does not.
The disparity raises questions about how the team should proceed if doctors clear starter Kevin Kolb to return this week from a concussion. The numbers say Kolb or just about anyone else should start, but the team might want to keep Skelton around for fourth quarters and overtimes.
Skelton, who played a leading role in the Cardinals' comeback from a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit Sunday, owns four game-winning drives after third quarters in his last eight appearances. But he has been much worse than average earlier in games.
In fact, Skelton ranks last among 36 qualifying quarterbacks in first-quarter Total QBR this season, posting a 6.3 score that lags far behind average (50) on a 100-point scale. Skelton improves to 28th in second quarters (32.0) and 28th in third quarters (35.9) before making a striking transformation. Skelton ranks 12th in fourth-quarter QBR (66.5) and ninth in fourth quarters and overtimes combined (71.4).
That 71.4 figure in fourth quarters and overtimes ranks just ahead of those for Tom Brady (68.2), Matt Cassel (66.1), Matt Ryan (65.2) and, yes, Tim Tebow (63.0).
Tebow outranks Skelton in fourth-quarter QBR, 73.5 to 66.5, but Skelton has done more to help his team win in overtimes.. The Cardinals are 3-0 in overtime games this season, including 2-0 with Skelton. They visit Cincinnati in Week 16.
Quick thoughts on how NFC West passers graded out in Week 15 according to Total QBR, with NFL passer ratings in parenthesis as a reference point:
- John Skelton, Arizona Cardinals (55.6 QBR, 79.3 NFL rating): Skelton completed 28 of 46 passes for 313 yards with one touchdown, one interception, four sacks and two runs covering seven yards. He did not fumble. Skelton completed passes of 21, 23 and 24 yards during a roughly two-minute period of the fourth quarter. His longest completion, a 32-yarder to Larry Fitzgerald, set up the winning field goal in overtime. Skelton completed no passes longer than 12 yards to his running backs or wide receivers before the fourth quarter. Tight end Todd Heap played a more prominent role.
- Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks (42.6 QBR, 94.4 NFL rating): Jackson completed 19 of 31 passes for 227 yards with one touchdown no interceptions, one sack and three rushes for minus-2 yards. The Bears recovered his lone fumble for a touchdown. Jackson completed 15 of 19 passes after halftime. That included a deep pass to Ben Obomanu for a 43-yard gain to the Chicago 3-yard line on the Seahawks' opening drive of the second half. Marshawn Lynch scored on the next play, tying the game and beginning a 31-0 scoring run for Seattle.
- Kellen Clemens, St. Louis Rams (24.0 QBR, 95.7 NFL rating): Clemens completed 25 of 36 passes for 229 yards with one touchdown, no interceptions, three sacks and two rushes covering 9 yards. The Rams recovered his lone fumble. Clemens was impressive for a quarterback joining his team only recently. His team trailed for all but five minutes of the game, however. QBR rewards quarterbacks for improving win probability for their teams. The Rams converted twice in 13 third-down chances. They managed two first downs on three drives while the Bengals turned a 6-6 game into a 20-6 blowout. A touchdown with 1:14 remaining proved inconsequential.
- Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers: plays Monday night.
The chart below shows how quarterbacks from games involving NFC West teams fared in Total QBR for Week 15.
The clutch-weight average column reflects game situations, not how well players performed during those situations. Any clutch average above 1.0 reflects a quarterback performing in higher-pressure situations.
Bringing pressure? Some QBs simply shrug
November, 29, 2011
11/29/11
6:50
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
The best NFL quarterbacks are good against standard and added pressure alike.
Aaron Rodgers comes to mind. The Green Bay Packers' quarterback leads the NFL in Total QBR when opponents send four or fewer pass-rushers, and also when they send five or more, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Alex Smith's stronger production against five or more pass-rushers has stood out all season.
Multiple factors can produce such a disparity. A quick-thinking quarterback armed with a strong game plan and a solid protection scheme can have an advantage against added pressure. Quarterbacks working behind weaker offensive lines could suffer against standard pressure if opponents got to them without sacrificing coverage. Having additional players in coverage affords defenses with additional combinations in coverage, another consideration.
The chart immediately below ranks quarterbacks by the largest QBR disparity when facing five or more pass-rushers vs. four or fewer. Smith and Arizona's Kevin Kolb are among 11 quarterbacks with higher QBR scores against five or more rushers. They have done better against pressure, in theory. Ranking higher on the list isn't necessarily desirable; like Rodgers, a top quarterback should produce in both areas.
Fifty is an average score, with 100 as the limit.
QBR differential is an imperfect measure because point differentials nearer the margins (zero and 100) carry more significance than they do nearer the middle of the range. But the disparities are still helpful in showing how quarterbacks perform, in general, across these situations.
Rex Grossman, who heads the first chart, completed 9 of 12 passes for 117 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions and one sack when the Seahawks sent five or more rushers against him Sunday. He completed 17 of 23 passes for 197 yards with one touchdown, two interceptions and no sacks against standard pressure.
The final chart shows the 22 qualifying quarterbacks with better QBR numbers when facing four or fewer pass-rushers, again ranked by percentage difference.
Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson and St. Louis' Sam Bradford show up on this list. There is Rodgers, down at the bottom, nearly equally strong in each situation.
Aaron Rodgers comes to mind. The Green Bay Packers' quarterback leads the NFL in Total QBR when opponents send four or fewer pass-rushers, and also when they send five or more, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Alex Smith's stronger production against five or more pass-rushers has stood out all season.
- Smith vs. four or fewer rushers: six touchdowns, four interceptions and 16 sacks in 222 dropbacks, with a 47.7 QBR (50 is average) and an 84.7 NFL passer rating.
- Smith vs. five or more: seven touchdowns, one interception and 14 sacks in 106 dropbacks, with a 57.2 QBR and 105.9 NFL rating.
Multiple factors can produce such a disparity. A quick-thinking quarterback armed with a strong game plan and a solid protection scheme can have an advantage against added pressure. Quarterbacks working behind weaker offensive lines could suffer against standard pressure if opponents got to them without sacrificing coverage. Having additional players in coverage affords defenses with additional combinations in coverage, another consideration.
The chart immediately below ranks quarterbacks by the largest QBR disparity when facing five or more pass-rushers vs. four or fewer. Smith and Arizona's Kevin Kolb are among 11 quarterbacks with higher QBR scores against five or more rushers. They have done better against pressure, in theory. Ranking higher on the list isn't necessarily desirable; like Rodgers, a top quarterback should produce in both areas.
Fifty is an average score, with 100 as the limit.
QBR differential is an imperfect measure because point differentials nearer the margins (zero and 100) carry more significance than they do nearer the middle of the range. But the disparities are still helpful in showing how quarterbacks perform, in general, across these situations.
Rex Grossman, who heads the first chart, completed 9 of 12 passes for 117 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions and one sack when the Seahawks sent five or more rushers against him Sunday. He completed 17 of 23 passes for 197 yards with one touchdown, two interceptions and no sacks against standard pressure.
The final chart shows the 22 qualifying quarterbacks with better QBR numbers when facing four or fewer pass-rushers, again ranked by percentage difference.
Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson and St. Louis' Sam Bradford show up on this list. There is Rodgers, down at the bottom, nearly equally strong in each situation.
Alex Cool? Smith leads NFL in comebacks
November, 2, 2011
11/02/11
9:58
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Grading Alex Smith's play during the San Francisco 49ers' 6-1 start has become one of the more fascinating pursuits of this 2011 NFC West season.
Smith, long a divisive subject among 49ers fans, remains one even during the team's best start since 1998.
It's easy to see why.
Smith ranks among the top 10 quarterbacks in NFL passer rating. He has led three fourth-quarter comeback victories, all on the road. Yet he ranks only 18th in yards per attempt and 24th in yards per game. And despite occasionally setting a high standard for Total QBR, Smith ranks only 24th in the ESPN statistic measuring how quarterbacks impact their teams' chances for winning.
We've had almost as much fun debating the merits of QBR as we've had debating all things Smith, but any quarterback stat ranking Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees above all others, with Tim Tebow dead last, must be onto something.
Let's set aside the stats for a moment. Fourth-quarter comeback victories have long served as the measure of a quarterback's mettle. Pro Football Reference has done outstanding work in defining and validating them. From their work, we're able to see all fourth-quarter comeback victories for the 49ers since 1960. We can also generate a list for all NFL quarterbacks this season -- a list showing Smith atop the NFL with three, all on the road.
The chart breaks down 2011 fourth-quarter comeback victories by quarterback and venue. Smith and the New York Giants lead the league with three. Smith is the only one with three on the road. A quick look at them:
Now, on to the chart ...
Smith, long a divisive subject among 49ers fans, remains one even during the team's best start since 1998.
It's easy to see why.
Smith ranks among the top 10 quarterbacks in NFL passer rating. He has led three fourth-quarter comeback victories, all on the road. Yet he ranks only 18th in yards per attempt and 24th in yards per game. And despite occasionally setting a high standard for Total QBR, Smith ranks only 24th in the ESPN statistic measuring how quarterbacks impact their teams' chances for winning.
We've had almost as much fun debating the merits of QBR as we've had debating all things Smith, but any quarterback stat ranking Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees above all others, with Tim Tebow dead last, must be onto something.
Let's set aside the stats for a moment. Fourth-quarter comeback victories have long served as the measure of a quarterback's mettle. Pro Football Reference has done outstanding work in defining and validating them. From their work, we're able to see all fourth-quarter comeback victories for the 49ers since 1960. We can also generate a list for all NFL quarterbacks this season -- a list showing Smith atop the NFL with three, all on the road.
The chart breaks down 2011 fourth-quarter comeback victories by quarterback and venue. Smith and the New York Giants lead the league with three. Smith is the only one with three on the road. A quick look at them:
- At Cincinnati, Week 3: With the 49ers trailing 6-3 in the fourth quarter, Smith completes 4 of 8 passes for 48 yards during a 10-play, 72-yard touchdown drive. The 49ers win the game, 13-8.
- At Philadelphia, Week 4: The 49ers won this one in the fourth quarter on the strength of their running game and defense. Smith completed 9 of 9 passes for 179 yards and two touchdowns in the third quarter, when the 49ers erased most of a 20-point deficit. He completed 4 of 8 passes for 22 yards, no first downs and a sack in the final 15 minutes.
- At Detroit, Week 6: Smith and the passing game struggled most of the way, but with the game on the line, Smith found Delanie Walker for the go-ahead touchdown on a fourth-down play with 1:56 remaining.
Now, on to the chart ...
Hope for Kevin Kolb? A striking comparison
November, 1, 2011
11/01/11
5:01
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Arizona Cardinals fans suffering through a 1-6 start must realize the 2011 season isn't going to produce a playoff berth.
They should happily settle for a little hope on the quarterback front.
Kevin Kolb's first seven games with the team have warmed seats beneath the Cardinals' leadership while threatening to empty them at University of Phoenix Stadium.
An email from Rodney Lakin of arizonasports.com pointed to striking similarities between the first seven starts for Kolb and the first seven for Matt Cassel in Kansas City.
Cassel hasn't turned into one of the all-time greats, but he was good enough for the Chiefs to go 10-6 in his second season as their starter. He's been good enough for them to win four in a row to get back in the AFC West race this season.
The chart compares Cassel's first seven games in Kansas City with Kolb's first seven in Arizona. Both were 27 years old. Both had signed monster contracts.
Cassel had additional experience, having posted a 10-5 record as a starter with New England in 2008. Kolb had only seven starts for Philadelphia.
But everything else lines up pretty closely. Cassel had a better touchdown-to-interception ratio. Kolb has averaged significantly greater yards per attempt. The sack numbers are similar. Their NFL passer ratings are nearly identical and Kolb has actually been slightly better as measured by Total QBR, which factors for additional criteria.
Cassel has 42 touchdowns, 27 interceptions and a 17-13 starting record since going 1-6 in his first seven starts with the Chiefs. The Cardinals would settle for that.
They should happily settle for a little hope on the quarterback front.
Kevin Kolb's first seven games with the team have warmed seats beneath the Cardinals' leadership while threatening to empty them at University of Phoenix Stadium.
An email from Rodney Lakin of arizonasports.com pointed to striking similarities between the first seven starts for Kolb and the first seven for Matt Cassel in Kansas City.
Cassel hasn't turned into one of the all-time greats, but he was good enough for the Chiefs to go 10-6 in his second season as their starter. He's been good enough for them to win four in a row to get back in the AFC West race this season.
The chart compares Cassel's first seven games in Kansas City with Kolb's first seven in Arizona. Both were 27 years old. Both had signed monster contracts.
Cassel had additional experience, having posted a 10-5 record as a starter with New England in 2008. Kolb had only seven starts for Philadelphia.
But everything else lines up pretty closely. Cassel had a better touchdown-to-interception ratio. Kolb has averaged significantly greater yards per attempt. The sack numbers are similar. Their NFL passer ratings are nearly identical and Kolb has actually been slightly better as measured by Total QBR, which factors for additional criteria.
Cassel has 42 touchdowns, 27 interceptions and a 17-13 starting record since going 1-6 in his first seven starts with the Chiefs. The Cardinals would settle for that.
How quarterbacks perform under 'duress'
October, 20, 2011
10/20/11
2:41
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
A few notes and observations regarding how NFC West quarterbacks have performed when under duress, defined by ESPN Stats & Information as situations when defensive pressure forced players to throw early, off-balance or when they were getting hit:
Seattle's Charlie Whitehurst hasn't played enough to qualify for consideration. Thanks to Marty Callinan of ESPN Stats & Information for providing the numbers. Here's hoping I've explained it well enough to stop your cranium from feeling under duress.
Update: At the outset, I defined duress as plays when defensive pressure forced players to throw early, off-balance or when they were getting hit. Duress also covers non-throwing plays when pressure forced players to scramble or take a sack.
- Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams: Bradford has completed only 5 of 38 passes in these situations. That works out to 13.2 percent, by far the lowest in the league. Oakland's Jason Campbell was next at 22.6 percent before his season-ending injury. Ben Roethlisberger (61.1 percent), Donovan McNabb (54.3), Jay Cutler (50.9) and Cam Newton (50.0) are the only players completing at least half their passes under duress. Dropped passes, covered receivers and holding the ball too long have hurt the Rams. Bradford has been under duress on 25.9 percent of all plays and 18.7 percent of plays featuring pass attempts. Those figures are middle-of-the-pack among players with at least 20 total plays under duress. Two players running versions of the Rams' offense, Tom Brady and Matt Cassel, rank 1-2 in fewest percentage of passes delivered under duress. It's not necessarily the system, in other words. Brady has a lower NFL passer rating than Bradford (30.6 to 39.6) in these situations, having completed 9 of 26 passes for 98 yards and an interception. Cassel's rating (13.5) ranks last in the league. Bradford ranks 32nd out of 34 players (min. 20 plays) in Total QBR (0.5) when under duress. Tony Romo is No. 1 at 46.6. Note that Total QBR figures apply to all plays. I did not ask for separate QBR figures, only those plays featuring pass attempts, only because the stat, by definition, takes into account scrambles, sacks, fumbles, etc.
- Kevin Kolb, Arizona Cardinals: Kolb has been under duress on 32.3 percent of all plays and 23.4 percent plays with pass attempts. Both figures are fourth-highest in the NFL. His 69.4 NFL passer rating in these situations ranks ninth in the league. Kolb has completed 19 of 44 passes for 291 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions on these throws. Michael Vick is the only player in the league with as many touchdown passes under duress, but he also has five interceptions. The improbable scoring pass Kolb threw to Larry Fitzgerald at Seattle comes to mind. Mostly because of sacks and fumbles, Kolb ranks only 27th in Total QBR (1.4) among the 34 players with at least 20 total plays under duress. The lesson? Kolb has made some good things happen when under duress. His relatively high passer rating says as much. But there have been too many negative plays. He knows he's not Roethlisberger and said so this week, but sometimes he plays as though he does not know this.
- Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks: Jackson has completed 12 of 28 passes for 136 yards with one touchdown and one interception when under duress. His 55.1 NFL passer rating when throwing under duress ranks 14th in the league -- ahead of some big names (Matthew Stafford, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Romo, Bradford, Vick, Brady, etc). Eli Manning (95.3) and Matt Hasselbeck (87.1) are exceptions as players with exceptionally high NFL ratings under duress this season. Jackson ranks 12th, right behind Kolb, in completion percentage on these throws. While the sacks Jackson has taken largely explain his 20th-ranked QBR of 3.6 when under duress, 27 of the qualifying 34 players are below 15.0 in QBR in these situations. Even the best quarterbacks tend to struggle when under duress. Minimizing damage is key. Jackson has been under duress on 27.8 percent of all plays, ninth-most in the league. He has taken sacks and generally avoided turnovers, explaining why he has been under duress only 16.8 percent of the time on plays featuring pass attempts. That 16.8 figure is among the 12 lowest in the NFL.
- Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers: When the 49ers were 0-5 last season, Smith was leading the NFL in most pass attempts while throwing under duress, despite taking 10 sacks on these plays. He has attempted 12 fewer passes under duress through one additional game this season, and his NFL passer rating is 61.9, which ranks 12th, as opposed to the 8.1 rating he had while under duress during the 0-5 start. That suggests the 49ers' scheme and play-calling are giving Smith superior options against pressure. Smith has completed 12 of 29 passes for 176 yards when under duress. Smith has been under duress on 26 percent of all plays (13th-most in the league) and 17.6 percent of those featuring pass attempts (20th-most among qualifiers). Even so, Smith's Total QBR for all plays under duress (not just those with pass attempts) lags at 2.5. This is because Smith is tied with Kolb for the worst expected-points figure in the league when it comes to taking sacks (minus-14 points for each player). My feel is that Smith has improved in this area lately.
Seattle's Charlie Whitehurst hasn't played enough to qualify for consideration. Thanks to Marty Callinan of ESPN Stats & Information for providing the numbers. Here's hoping I've explained it well enough to stop your cranium from feeling under duress.
Update: At the outset, I defined duress as plays when defensive pressure forced players to throw early, off-balance or when they were getting hit. Duress also covers non-throwing plays when pressure forced players to scramble or take a sack.
On the 49ers' willingness to throw deep
October, 5, 2011
10/05/11
12:50
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
One prevailing question for the San Francisco 49ers this season has tapped into skepticism underlying their successful start.
Sure, the 49ers have had some success without opening up their offense much, but what happens when they're inevitably forced to become more aggressive?
The question has some legitimacy.
Alex Smith's passes have traveled, on average, only 6.5 yards past the line of scrimmage, tied with Colt McCoy for lowest in the NFL this season, according to ESPN Stats & Information. But when the 49ers have asked Smith to strike downfield, the results have so far been positive. The chart at right shows completion percentages, yards per attempt and passer ratings for Smith and Week 5 opponent Josh Freeman on passes traveling at least 15 yards past the line of scrimmage.
One of the weekly breakdowns I receive shows Smith ranking with Aaron Rodgers, Matt Cassel, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Kevin Kolb and Matt Hasselbeck among the eight most effective quarterbacks on passes traveling more than 20 yards downfield.
Smith has completed 3 of 5 such attempts for 103 yards. The five attempts are a low number; the other quarterbacks listed above had 14.2 such attempts on average. But nothing about the results on Smith's longer passes should discourage additional longer attempts. His deep throw to Michael Crabtree for a 38-yard gain against Philadelphia was perfectly delivered between two defenders and preceded by a pump fake.
The second chart compares Smith's production through Week 4 with his 2010 production on passes traveling more than 20 yards downfield.
Tight end Vernon Davis' big-play production bears monitoring. He had five receptions of at least 40 yards last season. He has none through four games, but his per-catch average has perked up over the past couple weeks. Receiver Braylon Edwards, sidelined by injury recently, also has zero 40-plus receptions this season after getting five in 2010.
There is nothing magical about the 40-yard cutoff. It's just a figure the NFL tracks and makes available as part of its regular statistics, and a general indicator of big-play production regardless of how far passes travel beyond the line of scrimmage.
Sure, the 49ers have had some success without opening up their offense much, but what happens when they're inevitably forced to become more aggressive?
The question has some legitimacy.
Alex Smith's passes have traveled, on average, only 6.5 yards past the line of scrimmage, tied with Colt McCoy for lowest in the NFL this season, according to ESPN Stats & Information. But when the 49ers have asked Smith to strike downfield, the results have so far been positive. The chart at right shows completion percentages, yards per attempt and passer ratings for Smith and Week 5 opponent Josh Freeman on passes traveling at least 15 yards past the line of scrimmage.
One of the weekly breakdowns I receive shows Smith ranking with Aaron Rodgers, Matt Cassel, Tony Romo, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Kevin Kolb and Matt Hasselbeck among the eight most effective quarterbacks on passes traveling more than 20 yards downfield.
Smith has completed 3 of 5 such attempts for 103 yards. The five attempts are a low number; the other quarterbacks listed above had 14.2 such attempts on average. But nothing about the results on Smith's longer passes should discourage additional longer attempts. His deep throw to Michael Crabtree for a 38-yard gain against Philadelphia was perfectly delivered between two defenders and preceded by a pump fake.
The second chart compares Smith's production through Week 4 with his 2010 production on passes traveling more than 20 yards downfield.
Tight end Vernon Davis' big-play production bears monitoring. He had five receptions of at least 40 yards last season. He has none through four games, but his per-catch average has perked up over the past couple weeks. Receiver Braylon Edwards, sidelined by injury recently, also has zero 40-plus receptions this season after getting five in 2010.
There is nothing magical about the 40-yard cutoff. It's just a figure the NFL tracks and makes available as part of its regular statistics, and a general indicator of big-play production regardless of how far passes travel beyond the line of scrimmage.
Around the NFC West: Kevin Kolb debate
September, 22, 2011
9/22/11
9:38
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
One game between the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks will not determine which team was smartest regarding its approach to quarterback Kevin Kolb.
It'll help frame the conversation in the short term, however.
So far, Kolb has looked like a player the Seahawks could very much use behind center. He has completed 61.4 percent of his passes while averaging 9.8 yards per attempt, with four touchdowns, one interception and an NFL passer rating of 110.3. Five sacks and two turnovers, both committed when the Cardinals were in scoring range during close games, dragged down his QBR to 48.5 -- slightly below average, but still better than Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger and 11 other starters.
The Seahawks' Tarvaris Jackson is averaging 5.4 yards per attempt with 10 sacks, an 80.1 NFL passer rating and a 23.3 QBR that ranks 29th, lower than every quarterback except Matt Cassel, Kerry Collins and Luke McCown.
Dave Boling of the Tacoma News Tribune puts it this way: Jackson has not yet been the answer to the many problems the Seahawks have on offense, but he’s not been the most obvious limiting factor, either.
Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times uses a marital analogy for the situation: "If committing to a franchise quarterback is like tying the knot, the Cardinals have taken the plunge while the Seahawks aren't even in an exclusive relationship yet. They acquired Charlie Whitehurst last year and added Jackson this year, but both were two-year deals as opposed to the kind of long-term commitment Arizona made in Kolb."
Darren Urban of azcardinals.com says the way Kolb hung tough, risking his health to complete a 73-yard touchdown pass to Larry Fitzgerald in Week 2, showed teammates why Arizona was so eager to acquire Kolb from Philadelphia during the offseason. Fitzgerald: "All the guys in the locker room know how Kevin is. He’s willing to take the big shot for the team. Everyone saw his helmet get knocked off. He’s a fierce competitor who’ll do anything to make this team go." Noted: Having Fitzgerald on his side gives Kolb an advantage Jackson and quite a few other quarterbacks do not enjoy. There is a chance, however, that Jackson could have for the first time this season a receiver with at least some of the physical gifts Fitzgerald offers an offense.
Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com says Sidney Rice made it through his first practice of the 2010 season amid fears the fourth-year wide receiver might need surgery to repair a torn labrum. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell: "One player can have an effect on your offense. Sidney brings juice and he brings some excitement. He brings the deep threat that you’re looking for just to back people off. When he’s in there, you always have that threat. So it definitely can help." Noted: The Seahawks' longest completed pass covered 17 yards during a 24-0 defeat at Pittsburgh in Week 2. Rice has averaged better than 17.0 yards per reception across nine of the 43 games in which he has at least one catch. His team posted a 7-2 record in those games. Yes, the Seahawks could use that type of production.
Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says postgame meetings between Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo and team owner Stan Kroenke do not reflect negatively on Spagnuolo. Miklasz: "The owner-coach summit didn't mean that Kroenke was irate at his coach, or that he snapped at his coach, or that he's turned on his coach, or that he's going to fire his coach. What hasn't been pointed out is that Kroenke also visits with Spagnuolo after the Rams win a game. And yes, Spagnuolo needs to win more games. Definitely. But it's absurd for a reasonable person to conclude that Spagnuolo is squirming on the proverbial 'hot seat' and in any real danger of losing his job only 34 games into a massive rebuild."
Kathleen Nelson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Giants' Deon Grant denies faking injury against the Rams on Monday night. I'll have a couple thoughts on this one as part of a "five observations" item on the Rams later Thursday.
Roger Hensley of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch asks colleagues whether the Rams are being too cautious with receiver Danario Alexander. Jim Thomas: "Alexander has a chronic knee condition, meaning it’s not going to get any better. Five surgeries on the same knee is a lot. So if you want to run him into the ground, go ahead, and he’ll be back in surgery in a couple weeks. If you want to get anything out of him for any extended period of time – like an entire season, for instance – rather than treating him as a disposable object, you’re going to have to manage the knee, manage the reps and treat him differently than other players."
Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com says the concussion Alex Smith suffered against Dallas was the first one of record during the quarterback's seven-year career. Maiocco: "Smith was sacked six times in the game but did not report any problems to the team's medical staff during the game. It is not known when Smith sustained the concussion. But before leaving Candlestick Park, he checked in with Jeff Ferguson, 49ers director of football operations and sports medicine, and informed him that he didn't feel right. The 49ers placed him through tests, which revealed Smith had sustained a concussion, the team said Wednesday evening."
Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News offers thoughts on a range of 49ers-related issues. There was also this from Smith on Vernon Davis' role: "I think Vernon’s always going to be a focal point of our pass game. It just depends on the flow of the game, how teams treat him. We play some teams and Vernon gets a lot of attention, especially when he’s running. I think you take a lot at the touchdown pass to Delanie, I mean, Vernon’s what makes that play go. Him running down the field eats up two guys and all of a sudden Delanie’s one-on-one. So he’s always going to be a focal point. The type of player he is, the skill-set he has, you can’t afford not to have him as a focal point. I just think it’s one of these things, you’d like to have him more involved, getting more touches, but just the way the game went, that’s the way it happens sometimes."
It'll help frame the conversation in the short term, however.
So far, Kolb has looked like a player the Seahawks could very much use behind center. He has completed 61.4 percent of his passes while averaging 9.8 yards per attempt, with four touchdowns, one interception and an NFL passer rating of 110.3. Five sacks and two turnovers, both committed when the Cardinals were in scoring range during close games, dragged down his QBR to 48.5 -- slightly below average, but still better than Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger and 11 other starters.
The Seahawks' Tarvaris Jackson is averaging 5.4 yards per attempt with 10 sacks, an 80.1 NFL passer rating and a 23.3 QBR that ranks 29th, lower than every quarterback except Matt Cassel, Kerry Collins and Luke McCown.
Dave Boling of the Tacoma News Tribune puts it this way: Jackson has not yet been the answer to the many problems the Seahawks have on offense, but he’s not been the most obvious limiting factor, either.
Danny O'Neil of the Seattle Times uses a marital analogy for the situation: "If committing to a franchise quarterback is like tying the knot, the Cardinals have taken the plunge while the Seahawks aren't even in an exclusive relationship yet. They acquired Charlie Whitehurst last year and added Jackson this year, but both were two-year deals as opposed to the kind of long-term commitment Arizona made in Kolb."
Darren Urban of azcardinals.com says the way Kolb hung tough, risking his health to complete a 73-yard touchdown pass to Larry Fitzgerald in Week 2, showed teammates why Arizona was so eager to acquire Kolb from Philadelphia during the offseason. Fitzgerald: "All the guys in the locker room know how Kevin is. He’s willing to take the big shot for the team. Everyone saw his helmet get knocked off. He’s a fierce competitor who’ll do anything to make this team go." Noted: Having Fitzgerald on his side gives Kolb an advantage Jackson and quite a few other quarterbacks do not enjoy. There is a chance, however, that Jackson could have for the first time this season a receiver with at least some of the physical gifts Fitzgerald offers an offense.
Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com says Sidney Rice made it through his first practice of the 2010 season amid fears the fourth-year wide receiver might need surgery to repair a torn labrum. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell: "One player can have an effect on your offense. Sidney brings juice and he brings some excitement. He brings the deep threat that you’re looking for just to back people off. When he’s in there, you always have that threat. So it definitely can help." Noted: The Seahawks' longest completed pass covered 17 yards during a 24-0 defeat at Pittsburgh in Week 2. Rice has averaged better than 17.0 yards per reception across nine of the 43 games in which he has at least one catch. His team posted a 7-2 record in those games. Yes, the Seahawks could use that type of production.
Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says postgame meetings between Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo and team owner Stan Kroenke do not reflect negatively on Spagnuolo. Miklasz: "The owner-coach summit didn't mean that Kroenke was irate at his coach, or that he snapped at his coach, or that he's turned on his coach, or that he's going to fire his coach. What hasn't been pointed out is that Kroenke also visits with Spagnuolo after the Rams win a game. And yes, Spagnuolo needs to win more games. Definitely. But it's absurd for a reasonable person to conclude that Spagnuolo is squirming on the proverbial 'hot seat' and in any real danger of losing his job only 34 games into a massive rebuild."
Kathleen Nelson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the Giants' Deon Grant denies faking injury against the Rams on Monday night. I'll have a couple thoughts on this one as part of a "five observations" item on the Rams later Thursday.
Roger Hensley of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch asks colleagues whether the Rams are being too cautious with receiver Danario Alexander. Jim Thomas: "Alexander has a chronic knee condition, meaning it’s not going to get any better. Five surgeries on the same knee is a lot. So if you want to run him into the ground, go ahead, and he’ll be back in surgery in a couple weeks. If you want to get anything out of him for any extended period of time – like an entire season, for instance – rather than treating him as a disposable object, you’re going to have to manage the knee, manage the reps and treat him differently than other players."
Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com says the concussion Alex Smith suffered against Dallas was the first one of record during the quarterback's seven-year career. Maiocco: "Smith was sacked six times in the game but did not report any problems to the team's medical staff during the game. It is not known when Smith sustained the concussion. But before leaving Candlestick Park, he checked in with Jeff Ferguson, 49ers director of football operations and sports medicine, and informed him that he didn't feel right. The 49ers placed him through tests, which revealed Smith had sustained a concussion, the team said Wednesday evening."
Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News offers thoughts on a range of 49ers-related issues. There was also this from Smith on Vernon Davis' role: "I think Vernon’s always going to be a focal point of our pass game. It just depends on the flow of the game, how teams treat him. We play some teams and Vernon gets a lot of attention, especially when he’s running. I think you take a lot at the touchdown pass to Delanie, I mean, Vernon’s what makes that play go. Him running down the field eats up two guys and all of a sudden Delanie’s one-on-one. So he’s always going to be a focal point. The type of player he is, the skill-set he has, you can’t afford not to have him as a focal point. I just think it’s one of these things, you’d like to have him more involved, getting more touches, but just the way the game went, that’s the way it happens sometimes."
The latest NFC West chat came and went Thursday with fans looking forward to exhibition openers beginning Thursday night.
Check out the full chat transcript here. And because there were so many good questions left over, I'll address one more per team below instead of hitting on highlights.
The Seahawks and Chargers will be kicking off at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Cardinals and Raiders kick off a couple hours later. I'll be offering thoughts following each game and am looking forward to discussing them on the blog.
Check out the full chat transcript here. And because there were so many good questions left over, I'll address one more per team below instead of hitting on highlights.
Mike Sando: There isn't enough evidence to brand Kolb one way or another, but if he were in the Rodgers mold, the Eagles never would have traded him. General managers I spoke with throughout the offseason thought Kolb was a good prospect, but not good enough to return a higher first-round draft choice. That seems debatable. Would you rather have a good starting quarterback or most of the players drafted early in the first round? The good starting quarterback has more value if your team does not have one. Kolb did complete 79.3 percent of his passes for 326 yards, three touchdowns and a 133.6 passer rating against Atlanta last season. He projects confidence the way a Pro Bowl quarterback does. It is possible that attitude reflects more of a gunslinger's mentality than an efficient quarterback's mentality. We cannot know yet and we're not likely to have a good idea until several games into the regular season.
Mike Sando: The sophomore slump angle is more interesting this season because the lockout kept teams from working with players during the offseason. Saffold was good enough as a rookie to make me think he'll be at least as good this season. Smith has not seemed to be on a sharp upward trajectory. I'm not sure how much a right tackle can "break out" anyway. He should be a solid player for the Rams given his talent, but it's looking like he does not have the qualities that differentiate special tackles from merely solid or above-average ones. If Smith did have those characteristics, the Rams would be more apt to play him at left tackle. Saffold, while good, is not in the Orlando Pace mold either.
Mike Sando: Gore did look very good when I was there at 49ers camp. He was bouncing around the practice field and appeared genuinely happy to be there. He hugged a fan, joked around with general manager Trent Baalke, plowed into middle linebacker Patrick Willis during drills (thunderous collisions, by the way) and spoke optimistically about the offense. He ran the ball well when asked to do so and did not appear to be favoring his hip.
Mike Sando: He's had some injury problems in the past, so let's say he misses a few games. Let's give him 12 starts, matching his career-best total. The Seahawks will not ask him to carry their offense. They'll try to establish a running game and use Jackson's mobility. Jackson has 13 touchdowns and six interceptions over his past three seasons (20 games, including six starts). I'd guess he'll be around 12-15 touchdown passes with slightly fewer interceptions. Let's revisit this one after seeing how comfortable he appears, how well the offensive line is coming together, etc.
The Seahawks and Chargers will be kicking off at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Cardinals and Raiders kick off a couple hours later. I'll be offering thoughts following each game and am looking forward to discussing them on the blog.
The late Don Smith never claimed his passer-rating formula was perfect.
Quite the opposite, in fact.
"Some people call it a quarterback rating system, but that really is not what it is," Smith told me during a 2002 interview. "It’s simply a passing statistic."
I've actually defended Smith's rating system because the quarterbacks with the highest ratings -- Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers led the way last season -- usually are the best quarterbacks. But there's so much more to quarterbacking than passing stats for touchdowns, interceptions, attempts, completions and yardage.
Game situations should count for something, and now they do.
With input from football people, including ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer, our statistical analysts have developed a 100-point ratings scale for quarterbacks taking into account advanced stats, game situations and relevant non-passing stats, including fumbles and sacks, to evaluate quarterbacks far more thoroughly. The methodology is complex -- one of the formula's key algorithms spans some 10,000 lines -- but the resulting "Total Quarterback Rating" (QBR for short) beats the old passer rating in every conceivable fashion. The ratings scale will debut this season.
I've been bugging the Stats & Information team for a sneak peak ever since learning former NBA statistical analyst Dean Oliver had joined our production analytics unit and was playing a prominent role in QBR development. Oliver, a Caltech grad with a Ph.D. in statistical applications, revolutionized how NBA teams use advanced statistics. Menlo College professor Ben Alamar, who has consulted with the San Francisco 49ers, is also part of the team.
Our stats team has been using game video to track stats relating to pressure, personnel, formation, game situation and more since 2008. The QBR stat represents a significant leap in harnessing those statistics for something more.
The old formula Smith created treated stats the same regardless of circumstance. A touchdown pass thrown against a prevent defense during a blowout defeat equals one thrown against pressure to win the game. A 5-yard completion on third-and-4 counts the same as a 5-yarder on third-and-15. A critical quarterback scramble, sack or fumble doesn't even factor.
"There is no way to statistically say how effective a guy is under fire," Smith lamented during our 2002 conversation. "None of that can be put into something like this."
Now it can, along with a whole lot more.
The QBR formula takes into account down, distance, field position, time remaining, rushing, passing sacks, fumbles, interceptions, how far each pass travels in the air, from where on the field the ball was thrown, yards after the catch, dropped balls, defensed balls, whether the quarterback was hit, whether he threw away the ball to avoid a sack, whether the pass was thrown accurately, etc. Each play carries "clutch weight" based on its importance to game outcome, as determined by analyzing those 60,000 plays since 2008. The stats adjust for quarterbacks facing an unusually high number of these situations.
"If it is a running clock late in the game, maybe you only get a few yards here or there, that is the right football play to make," Jeff Bennett, senior director of ESPN's production analytics team, said Sunday. "We spent a month learning about ratings to make sure quarterbacks couldn’t game the system, so they're not afraid to throw that deep pass at the end of the first half and risk an interception."
I've seen an outline for the rating system breaking down 2010 quarterbacks into six general categories, from top tier to poor. Precise rating numbers were not yet available. The quarterbacks under consideration broke down as follows:
ESPN plans to enlist several quarterbacks when introducing the stat during an hour-long "SportsCenter" special Friday at 8 p.m. ET. We'll be referencing the stat on the blogs and elsewhere. Bennett said he's allocating enough manpower to produce ratings on game days, a huge help for those of us analyzing player performances shortly after games.
"We want to reward a good football play," Bennett said.
Quite the opposite, in fact.
[+] Enlarge
Al Bello/Getty ImagesAccording to an outline for the rating system, Tom Brady would fall in the "top tier" category.
Al Bello/Getty ImagesAccording to an outline for the rating system, Tom Brady would fall in the "top tier" category.I've actually defended Smith's rating system because the quarterbacks with the highest ratings -- Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers led the way last season -- usually are the best quarterbacks. But there's so much more to quarterbacking than passing stats for touchdowns, interceptions, attempts, completions and yardage.
Game situations should count for something, and now they do.
With input from football people, including ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer, our statistical analysts have developed a 100-point ratings scale for quarterbacks taking into account advanced stats, game situations and relevant non-passing stats, including fumbles and sacks, to evaluate quarterbacks far more thoroughly. The methodology is complex -- one of the formula's key algorithms spans some 10,000 lines -- but the resulting "Total Quarterback Rating" (QBR for short) beats the old passer rating in every conceivable fashion. The ratings scale will debut this season.
I've been bugging the Stats & Information team for a sneak peak ever since learning former NBA statistical analyst Dean Oliver had joined our production analytics unit and was playing a prominent role in QBR development. Oliver, a Caltech grad with a Ph.D. in statistical applications, revolutionized how NBA teams use advanced statistics. Menlo College professor Ben Alamar, who has consulted with the San Francisco 49ers, is also part of the team.
Our stats team has been using game video to track stats relating to pressure, personnel, formation, game situation and more since 2008. The QBR stat represents a significant leap in harnessing those statistics for something more.
The old formula Smith created treated stats the same regardless of circumstance. A touchdown pass thrown against a prevent defense during a blowout defeat equals one thrown against pressure to win the game. A 5-yard completion on third-and-4 counts the same as a 5-yarder on third-and-15. A critical quarterback scramble, sack or fumble doesn't even factor.
"There is no way to statistically say how effective a guy is under fire," Smith lamented during our 2002 conversation. "None of that can be put into something like this."
Now it can, along with a whole lot more.
The QBR formula takes into account down, distance, field position, time remaining, rushing, passing sacks, fumbles, interceptions, how far each pass travels in the air, from where on the field the ball was thrown, yards after the catch, dropped balls, defensed balls, whether the quarterback was hit, whether he threw away the ball to avoid a sack, whether the pass was thrown accurately, etc. Each play carries "clutch weight" based on its importance to game outcome, as determined by analyzing those 60,000 plays since 2008. The stats adjust for quarterbacks facing an unusually high number of these situations.
Year of the Quarterback
ESPN has dedicated 2011 to examining one of the most crucial positions in all of sports -- the quarterback.
Year of the QB »
I've seen an outline for the rating system breaking down 2010 quarterbacks into six general categories, from top tier to poor. Precise rating numbers were not yet available. The quarterbacks under consideration broke down as follows:
- Top tier: Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, Rodgers and Drew Brees.
- Well above average: Josh Freeman, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers.
- Above average: Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, David Garrard and Kerry Collins.
- Around average: Matt Cassel, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sanchez, Carson Palmer, Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton and Jon Kitna.
- Below average: Shaun Hill, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Matt Hasselbeck, Chad Henne, Donovan McNabb, Sam Bradford and Alex Smith.
- Poor: Derek Anderson, Brett Favre and Jimmy Clausen.
ESPN plans to enlist several quarterbacks when introducing the stat during an hour-long "SportsCenter" special Friday at 8 p.m. ET. We'll be referencing the stat on the blogs and elsewhere. Bennett said he's allocating enough manpower to produce ratings on game days, a huge help for those of us analyzing player performances shortly after games.
"We want to reward a good football play," Bennett said.
Jesse Reynolds, an Arizona Cardinals fan deadlocked in a debate over quarterbacks, turned this way for a resolution.
"I have searched everywhere but haven't been able to find the data that supports (or contradicts) my argument that the Cardinals were one of the most-blitzed teams last year because no one feared our quarterbacks," Jesse wrote to me via Facebook. "Could you help find the numbers? I'm sure other NFC West teams' fans would love to know their numbers, too."
Blitz numbers usually tell us which defenses were more aggressive. But if we flipped our perspective, as Jesse suggested, we could find out which quarterbacks commanded the most respect, at least by this measure. Where to turn? Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Information put me in touch with colleague Jason Starrett, who came through with numbers for all 32 teams and for 40 individual quarterbacks.
Thanks to Jason, Jesse is going to win his argument by a knockout.
Opponents blitzed the Cardnials 37.2 percent of the time overall, the sixth-highest percentage in the league. Oakland (39.8), St. Louis (39.4), Chicago (38.4), Carolina (37.5) and Baltimore (37.5) faced blitzes more frequently.
We defined blitzes as plays when defenses rushed five or more defenders.
As the first chart shows, Max Hall, John Skelton, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford -- all rookies playing for losing teams season -- faced blitzes most frequently.
As the second chart shows, five highly experienced quarterbacks -- Peyton Manning, Jake Delhomme, Drew Brees, Matt Hasselbeck and Tom Brady -- faced blitzes least frequently.
Hall and Skelton combined to start seven games for Arizona. Teammate Derek Anderson ranked 17th among the 40 players listed in terms of being blitzed most frequently.
In looking at the charts, a few names showed up in surprising places.
The San Francisco 49ers' Smith ranked higher than expected on the list of quarterbacks facing blitzes less frequently. Was he really "commanding respect" the way Brady commanded respect? Of course not. Does he really qualify as a wily veteran such as Delhomme or Hasselbeck? The answer is "no" on that front as well.
Likewise, quarterbacks such as Hill and Henne wouldn't provide a strong deterrent to blitzing, would they? Why would Green Bay's Rodgers face blitzes more frequently than them?
Other variables come into play. Some teams blitz more frequently than others regardless of opponent. A quarterback facing these teams more frequently would see his numbers shift accordingly.
How well an offensive line picks up blitzes could influence how a defense attacks. How well receivers adjust to blitzes could matter, as could the confidence a defensive coordinator has in his secondary during a given week. A quarterback's running ability and ability to read defenses accurately could factor.
Overall, I'd say it's telling to see the Cardinals' Hall and Skelton blitzed so frequently, particularly relative to the numbers for the more experienced Anderson. It's also telling to see some highly experienced quarterbacks blitzed so infrequently by comparison.
"I have searched everywhere but haven't been able to find the data that supports (or contradicts) my argument that the Cardinals were one of the most-blitzed teams last year because no one feared our quarterbacks," Jesse wrote to me via Facebook. "Could you help find the numbers? I'm sure other NFC West teams' fans would love to know their numbers, too."
Blitz numbers usually tell us which defenses were more aggressive. But if we flipped our perspective, as Jesse suggested, we could find out which quarterbacks commanded the most respect, at least by this measure. Where to turn? Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Information put me in touch with colleague Jason Starrett, who came through with numbers for all 32 teams and for 40 individual quarterbacks.
Thanks to Jason, Jesse is going to win his argument by a knockout.
Opponents blitzed the Cardnials 37.2 percent of the time overall, the sixth-highest percentage in the league. Oakland (39.8), St. Louis (39.4), Chicago (38.4), Carolina (37.5) and Baltimore (37.5) faced blitzes more frequently.
We defined blitzes as plays when defenses rushed five or more defenders.
As the first chart shows, Max Hall, John Skelton, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford -- all rookies playing for losing teams season -- faced blitzes most frequently.
As the second chart shows, five highly experienced quarterbacks -- Peyton Manning, Jake Delhomme, Drew Brees, Matt Hasselbeck and Tom Brady -- faced blitzes least frequently.
Hall and Skelton combined to start seven games for Arizona. Teammate Derek Anderson ranked 17th among the 40 players listed in terms of being blitzed most frequently.
In looking at the charts, a few names showed up in surprising places.
The San Francisco 49ers' Smith ranked higher than expected on the list of quarterbacks facing blitzes less frequently. Was he really "commanding respect" the way Brady commanded respect? Of course not. Does he really qualify as a wily veteran such as Delhomme or Hasselbeck? The answer is "no" on that front as well.
Likewise, quarterbacks such as Hill and Henne wouldn't provide a strong deterrent to blitzing, would they? Why would Green Bay's Rodgers face blitzes more frequently than them?
Other variables come into play. Some teams blitz more frequently than others regardless of opponent. A quarterback facing these teams more frequently would see his numbers shift accordingly.
How well an offensive line picks up blitzes could influence how a defense attacks. How well receivers adjust to blitzes could matter, as could the confidence a defensive coordinator has in his secondary during a given week. A quarterback's running ability and ability to read defenses accurately could factor.
Overall, I'd say it's telling to see the Cardinals' Hall and Skelton blitzed so frequently, particularly relative to the numbers for the more experienced Anderson. It's also telling to see some highly experienced quarterbacks blitzed so infrequently by comparison.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Mike Sando
Sando joined ESPN.com in 2007 after nine seasons covering the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma (Wash.) News Tribune. He lives in the Seattle-Tacoma area with his wife and two sons.
