NFC West: Matt Ryan
How to value Alex Smith's performance stood among the most debated subjects on the NFC West blog last season.
Smith ranked ninth in NFL passer rating among a broader group featuring Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers.
The 49ers' coach, Jim Harbaugh, called Smith "elite" and promoted him for the Pro Bowl. But when it came time for the 49ers to pay Smith this offseason, they gave him a three-year deal with an easy out for the team after one season. The contract bore little resemblance to the ones those other quarterbacks have commanded.
Total QBR, the metric ESPN's Analytics Team developed to more fully assess how quarterbacks contributed to winning, supported the 49ers' valuation.
Smith, despite quite a few high single-game QBR scores when playing at home, ranked 22nd among qualifying quarterbacks overall with a 46.4 score out of 100 (50 is average). His share of blame for the sacks he took hurt his team more than the sacks any other qualifying player took, a huge drain on his score.
The weekly in-season "QBR Ranks" posts on this blog provided the basis for discussions on NFC West quarterback play. We had some healthy debates over the usefulness of QBR and how it could be improved. Some of those discussions go on internally, too.
Jeff Bennett, Dean Oliver and the Analytics Team are making a couple tweaks to the formula.
The changes will lessen the blame quarterbacks receive when they fumble during a sack, shifting more of the blame to offensive lines. Also, kneeldowns and spikes will no longer factor; those plays had very little impact on QBR over the season, but they wielded more influence on single-game scores.
Smith fumbled seven times and lost two of them. His fumbles were not particularly costly overall, allowing Smith to rank ninth in fewest expected points lost to fumbles. Brees was first. Tim Tebow was last.
These QBR tweaks were relatively minor. The Analytics Team discussed other possibilities at the most recent Sloan Sports Conference.
"One of the things that does sit a little bit on my mind is that we fundamentally have to do it on a per-play basis because we're going to be looking at how well did they play on third down vs. second down vs. five or more rushers and these are great," Oliver said recently at the conference. "One of the things I wonder about is whether that is the right basis for evaluating a quarterback overall."
The current system assigns greater value to scoring drives requiring fewer plays, all else equal, on the theory that scoring quickly would be more impressive than if finding the end zone took longer.
"We talked about some sort of QBR per drive, because if you go 80 yards in three plays vs. 80 yards in 12 plays, why should the three-play drive be four times better than the 12-play drive?" Oliver said. "In many cases, the 12-play drive is better. I don't know how we do that, but it is something we have talked about.
"For most of the work that we do, that doesn't affect anything, but I think it's a great conceptual question that hopefully we can figure out in the near future."
I found QBR most useful when it diverged significantly from NFL passer rating, as it did notably for Smith. Using the formula to declare one quarterback absolutely better than another made little sense. But if we could find out why QBR diverged from NFL passer rating or our perceptions in general, that could be of value.
For Smith, taking sacks spelled a large part of the discrepancy. Some made the case that Smith's offensive line was disproportionately responsible for many of those sacks. I thought Smith was content taking sacks to avoid interceptions, a tradeoff that helped explain the gap between NFL passer rating, which does not account for sacks, and QBR, which does.
My current take: Offensive lines are more to blame for some sacks, perhaps explaining why a QBR score suffered unexpectedly for a single game. Overall, though, the blame distribution evens out, creating more reliable results for a full season.
This discussion isn't for everyone. Apologies to those who don't care for analytics as they relate to football. My hope is to find more relevant applications.
Smith ranked ninth in NFL passer rating among a broader group featuring Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers.
The 49ers' coach, Jim Harbaugh, called Smith "elite" and promoted him for the Pro Bowl. But when it came time for the 49ers to pay Smith this offseason, they gave him a three-year deal with an easy out for the team after one season. The contract bore little resemblance to the ones those other quarterbacks have commanded.
[+] Enlarge
Joe Robbins/Getty ImagesAlex Smith ranked ninth in passer rating but 22nd in QBR last season.
Joe Robbins/Getty ImagesAlex Smith ranked ninth in passer rating but 22nd in QBR last season.Smith, despite quite a few high single-game QBR scores when playing at home, ranked 22nd among qualifying quarterbacks overall with a 46.4 score out of 100 (50 is average). His share of blame for the sacks he took hurt his team more than the sacks any other qualifying player took, a huge drain on his score.
The weekly in-season "QBR Ranks" posts on this blog provided the basis for discussions on NFC West quarterback play. We had some healthy debates over the usefulness of QBR and how it could be improved. Some of those discussions go on internally, too.
Jeff Bennett, Dean Oliver and the Analytics Team are making a couple tweaks to the formula.
The changes will lessen the blame quarterbacks receive when they fumble during a sack, shifting more of the blame to offensive lines. Also, kneeldowns and spikes will no longer factor; those plays had very little impact on QBR over the season, but they wielded more influence on single-game scores.
Smith fumbled seven times and lost two of them. His fumbles were not particularly costly overall, allowing Smith to rank ninth in fewest expected points lost to fumbles. Brees was first. Tim Tebow was last.
These QBR tweaks were relatively minor. The Analytics Team discussed other possibilities at the most recent Sloan Sports Conference.
"One of the things that does sit a little bit on my mind is that we fundamentally have to do it on a per-play basis because we're going to be looking at how well did they play on third down vs. second down vs. five or more rushers and these are great," Oliver said recently at the conference. "One of the things I wonder about is whether that is the right basis for evaluating a quarterback overall."
The current system assigns greater value to scoring drives requiring fewer plays, all else equal, on the theory that scoring quickly would be more impressive than if finding the end zone took longer.
"We talked about some sort of QBR per drive, because if you go 80 yards in three plays vs. 80 yards in 12 plays, why should the three-play drive be four times better than the 12-play drive?" Oliver said. "In many cases, the 12-play drive is better. I don't know how we do that, but it is something we have talked about.
"For most of the work that we do, that doesn't affect anything, but I think it's a great conceptual question that hopefully we can figure out in the near future."
I found QBR most useful when it diverged significantly from NFL passer rating, as it did notably for Smith. Using the formula to declare one quarterback absolutely better than another made little sense. But if we could find out why QBR diverged from NFL passer rating or our perceptions in general, that could be of value.
For Smith, taking sacks spelled a large part of the discrepancy. Some made the case that Smith's offensive line was disproportionately responsible for many of those sacks. I thought Smith was content taking sacks to avoid interceptions, a tradeoff that helped explain the gap between NFL passer rating, which does not account for sacks, and QBR, which does.
My current take: Offensive lines are more to blame for some sacks, perhaps explaining why a QBR score suffered unexpectedly for a single game. Overall, though, the blame distribution evens out, creating more reliable results for a full season.
This discussion isn't for everyone. Apologies to those who don't care for analytics as they relate to football. My hope is to find more relevant applications.
After focusing on run, division looks to air
May, 2, 2012
May 2
10:07
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Every team in the NFC West had a 1,000-yard rusher last season.
Coaches in Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis have promoted run-first philosophies. Arizona has invested first- and second-round picks in running backs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, respectively.
Run, run, run.
And yet the division focused on the passing game quite a bit during the 2012 NFL draft -- on both sides of the ball. NFC West teams drafted a league-high three wide receivers in the first two rounds. Teams from the division drafted three cornerbacks in the first three rounds, tied with the NFC North for most in the league.
The charts show how many receivers and corners each division added through the first three rounds. The combined total for the NFC West (six) was the most for any division, one more than the NFC North.
St. Louis drafted cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins (second round) and Trumaine Johnson (third round). Arizona used a third-round choice for cornerback Jamell Fleming. Arizona (Michael Floyd) and San Francisco (A.J. Jenkins) used first-round picks for receivers. St. Louis added receiver Brian Quick in the second round (and another receiver, Chris Givens, in the fourth).
NFC West pass defenses could face additional pressure given the scheduling rotation in 2012.
Every NFC West team faces New England with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker.
The division also faces Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson), Detroit (Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew) and Chicago (Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall).
San Francisco draws New Orleans (Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston) and the New York Giants (Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz). Arizona faces Philadelphia (Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin) and Atlanta (Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones). Seattle faces Dallas (Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant) and Carolina (Cam Newton, Steve Smith).
The top five teams in 2011 passing yardage -- New Orleans, New England, Green Bay, Detroit and the Giants -- show up on NFC West schedules. Green Bay, New England, the Giants and Saints comprised the top four in yards per passing attempt. The top seven teams in passing touchdowns -- Green Bay, New Orleans, Detroit, New England, Dallas, Atlanta and the Giants -- play a combined 16 games against the NFC West.
And, of course, NFC West teams must face each other, which means games against Larry Fitzgerald, Vernon Davis, Randy Moss, Sidney Rice and others.
Coaches in Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis have promoted run-first philosophies. Arizona has invested first- and second-round picks in running backs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, respectively.
Run, run, run.
And yet the division focused on the passing game quite a bit during the 2012 NFL draft -- on both sides of the ball. NFC West teams drafted a league-high three wide receivers in the first two rounds. Teams from the division drafted three cornerbacks in the first three rounds, tied with the NFC North for most in the league.
The charts show how many receivers and corners each division added through the first three rounds. The combined total for the NFC West (six) was the most for any division, one more than the NFC North.
St. Louis drafted cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins (second round) and Trumaine Johnson (third round). Arizona used a third-round choice for cornerback Jamell Fleming. Arizona (Michael Floyd) and San Francisco (A.J. Jenkins) used first-round picks for receivers. St. Louis added receiver Brian Quick in the second round (and another receiver, Chris Givens, in the fourth).
NFC West pass defenses could face additional pressure given the scheduling rotation in 2012.
Every NFC West team faces New England with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker.
The division also faces Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson), Detroit (Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew) and Chicago (Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall).
San Francisco draws New Orleans (Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston) and the New York Giants (Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz). Arizona faces Philadelphia (Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin) and Atlanta (Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones). Seattle faces Dallas (Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant) and Carolina (Cam Newton, Steve Smith).
The top five teams in 2011 passing yardage -- New Orleans, New England, Green Bay, Detroit and the Giants -- show up on NFC West schedules. Green Bay, New England, the Giants and Saints comprised the top four in yards per passing attempt. The top seven teams in passing touchdowns -- Green Bay, New Orleans, Detroit, New England, Dallas, Atlanta and the Giants -- play a combined 16 games against the NFC West.
And, of course, NFC West teams must face each other, which means games against Larry Fitzgerald, Vernon Davis, Randy Moss, Sidney Rice and others.
NFL general managers put their reputations on the line come draft day.
Some fare better than others.
The chart shows how many Pro Bowl players current NFC West GMs have drafted or helped draft over the past 10 years.
The numbers are not definitive. Current GMs from the division weren't always primary decision makers during the period in question. They do not deserve all the credit (or blame) for the players their teams drafted.
In some cases -- think first-team All-Pro choice NaVorro Bowman in San Francisco, for example -- very good players have not yet achieved Pro Bowl acclaim. In other cases, a single decision -- say, drafting Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay -- improved an organization's trajectory enough to launch other players to the Pro Bowl.
What we have, basically, is a starting point for discussion heading into the 2012 draft. Here's a look at each current NFC West GM and the associated 2002-2011 draft choices with Pro Bowls on their résumés:
Whoa, the NFC West chat is getting under way now. Gotta run.
Some fare better than others.
The chart shows how many Pro Bowl players current NFC West GMs have drafted or helped draft over the past 10 years.
The numbers are not definitive. Current GMs from the division weren't always primary decision makers during the period in question. They do not deserve all the credit (or blame) for the players their teams drafted.
In some cases -- think first-team All-Pro choice NaVorro Bowman in San Francisco, for example -- very good players have not yet achieved Pro Bowl acclaim. In other cases, a single decision -- say, drafting Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay -- improved an organization's trajectory enough to launch other players to the Pro Bowl.
What we have, basically, is a starting point for discussion heading into the 2012 draft. Here's a look at each current NFC West GM and the associated 2002-2011 draft choices with Pro Bowls on their résumés:
- John Schneider, Seattle Seahawks (10): Schneider is entering his third draft as a GM after joining the Seahawks from Green Bay, where he worked under Ted Thompson. Seattle safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor went to the Pro Bowl after last season. Schneider was in Green Bay when the Packers drafted eventual Pro Bowl choices B.J. Raji, Javon Walker, Aaron Rodgers, Clay Matthews, Nick Collins, Greg Jennings, Aaron Kampman and Scott Wells. Three notable non-Pro Bowl picks: Jermichael Finley, Richard Sherman, Matt Flynn.
- Trent Baalke, San Francisco 49ers (8): Baalke was with the Washington Redskins when they selected Sean Taylor and Chris Cooley. He was with the 49ers in a sub-GM role when San Francisco selected Vernon Davis, Patrick Willis, Joe Staley, Frank Gore, Dashon Goldson and Michael Robinson. Three notable non-Pro Bowl picks: Bowman, Aldon Smith, Ray McDonald.
- Rod Graves, Arizona Cardinals (7): Graves has been the Cardinals' GM for the entire period in question, although personnel director Steve Keim is ultimately responsible for setting the draft board. Draft choices Larry Fitzgerald, Patrick Peterson, Antrel Rolle, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Anquan Boldin, Darnell Dockett and Antonio Smith achieved Pro Bowl status. Smith went to the Pro Bowl with Houston last season. That counts for the purposes of our discussion. Three notable non-Pro Bowl picks: Calais Campbell, Karlos Dansby, Daryl Washington.
- Les Snead, St. Louis Rams (4): Snead enters his first draft as a GM after a long run with Atlanta. The Falcons selected eventual Pro Bowl choices Matt Ryan, DeAngelo Hall, Roddy White and Matt Schaub when Snead was with the team. Again, the period in question covers only the last 10 drafts, excluding from consideration other players (Michael Vick comes to mind among Snead-era Falcons choices). Three notable non-Pro Bowl picks: Curtis Lofton, Thomas DeCoud, Laurent Robinson.
Whoa, the NFC West chat is getting under way now. Gotta run.
One man's opinion on the top five Monday night games for 2012:
1. Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions, Week 16. Call this one the Karma Bowl. The Falcons took offense when Ndamukong Suh allegedly celebrated Matt Ryan's ankle injury during an October game between the teams last season. Suh called the injury "karma" for the Falcons' allegedly dirty tactics. Good teams and bad blood should make for good theater.
2. Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons, Week 2. Peyton Manning's first post-Indy appearance on "Monday Night Football" takes him to Atlanta for only the third time in his career. The Falcons are a footnote in this matchup. Manning plays only one indoor game during the 2012 regular season. This is it.
3. Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles, Week 12. Neither team had a winning record last season, but who cares? This game presents a chance to see Cam Newton and Michael Vick on the same night in the same stadium for the first time -- assuming they're both healthy enough to play after running around, into and through defenses for two-plus months.
4. Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers, Week 11. Patrick Willis versus Matt Forte. Brian Urlacher versus Frank Gore. Expect a physical game and a big test for Jay Cutler on the road. The 49ers have arguably the NFL's best defense, and they'll be eager to show it in prime time.
5. Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks, Week 3. Two NFC West teams on the list? What is this, the NFC West blog? Yes, but this one's legit. Few venues can approach Seattle for atmosphere, especially in prime time. And this game marks Green Bay's lone appearance on Monday night. The Matt Flynn storyline adds interest.
1. Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions, Week 16. Call this one the Karma Bowl. The Falcons took offense when Ndamukong Suh allegedly celebrated Matt Ryan's ankle injury during an October game between the teams last season. Suh called the injury "karma" for the Falcons' allegedly dirty tactics. Good teams and bad blood should make for good theater.
2. Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons, Week 2. Peyton Manning's first post-Indy appearance on "Monday Night Football" takes him to Atlanta for only the third time in his career. The Falcons are a footnote in this matchup. Manning plays only one indoor game during the 2012 regular season. This is it.
3. Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles, Week 12. Neither team had a winning record last season, but who cares? This game presents a chance to see Cam Newton and Michael Vick on the same night in the same stadium for the first time -- assuming they're both healthy enough to play after running around, into and through defenses for two-plus months.
4. Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers, Week 11. Patrick Willis versus Matt Forte. Brian Urlacher versus Frank Gore. Expect a physical game and a big test for Jay Cutler on the road. The 49ers have arguably the NFL's best defense, and they'll be eager to show it in prime time.
5. Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks, Week 3. Two NFC West teams on the list? What is this, the NFC West blog? Yes, but this one's legit. Few venues can approach Seattle for atmosphere, especially in prime time. And this game marks Green Bay's lone appearance on Monday night. The Matt Flynn storyline adds interest.
Justin from Davis, Calif., asks whether there's something more to Alex Smith. Specifically, can he become truly elite? "What is the hope of someone transforming into a superstar quarterback after so many non-performing years?"
Mike Sando: Before analyzing Smith as a player, let's tip our caps to him for helping the coordinated search for a missing Bay Area teenager over the weekend. His presence helped bring awareness to the search beyond whatever direct assistance he provided. That is commendable.
As for your question, Justin, let's more clearly define the word "elite" for these purposes. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees strike me as truly elite quarterbacks. Smith probably is not going to suddenly put up 30-40 touchdown passes per season.
Smith was most remarkable last season for avoiding mistakes. His interception percentage, 1.1, was third-lowest in NFL history for a player with at least 400 pass attempts. His numbers were good -- 17 touchdowns, five interceptions, 90.7 NFL passer rating -- but far from prolific. They were not elite QB numbers. They were smart, cautious numbers.
The percentages say Smith will have a hard time
maintaining such a low interception rate. However, I do think it's possible for him to improve upon his 2011 numbers. Matt Cassel is not an elite quarterback, but he had a 27-7 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions in 2010. Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman have put together similar ratios in recent seasons.
The 49ers probably will not ask Smith to carry their team. They will want him to protect the football. But with more opportunistic play in the red zone and improved efficiency on third down, Smith can make progress in 2012.
Mike Sando: Before analyzing Smith as a player, let's tip our caps to him for helping the coordinated search for a missing Bay Area teenager over the weekend. His presence helped bring awareness to the search beyond whatever direct assistance he provided. That is commendable.
As for your question, Justin, let's more clearly define the word "elite" for these purposes. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees strike me as truly elite quarterbacks. Smith probably is not going to suddenly put up 30-40 touchdown passes per season.
Smith was most remarkable last season for avoiding mistakes. His interception percentage, 1.1, was third-lowest in NFL history for a player with at least 400 pass attempts. His numbers were good -- 17 touchdowns, five interceptions, 90.7 NFL passer rating -- but far from prolific. They were not elite QB numbers. They were smart, cautious numbers.
The percentages say Smith will have a hard time
maintaining such a low interception rate. However, I do think it's possible for him to improve upon his 2011 numbers. Matt Cassel is not an elite quarterback, but he had a 27-7 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions in 2010. Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman have put together similar ratios in recent seasons.
The 49ers probably will not ask Smith to carry their team. They will want him to protect the football. But with more opportunistic play in the red zone and improved efficiency on third down, Smith can make progress in 2012.
On the surface, Peyton Manning blew his best opportunity to win a Super Bowl quickly when he chose the Denver Broncos over the San Francisco 49ers.
His reasoning?
Peter King, citing a 49ers source, says unrealistic expectations in San Francisco might have been a turn-off.
"SB-or-bust feel would have bugged PM," King tweeted.
There's no sense in criticizing Manning for what a 49ers source perceived the quarterback's motivations to be. We cannot say for certain whether Manning feels that way. Surely there were multiple reasons for his decision, some of which might never become known.
The reality, however, is that anything short of a Super Bowl appearance with Manning indeed would have qualified as a disappointment for the 49ers. And there were no guarantees the 49ers were going to advance that far, even with Manning.
Much was made of Manning's potential aversion to facing his brother, Eli, in the NFC playoffs. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford also carried deterrent factors relative to most of their AFC counterparts.
If the 49ers offered the best team situation for Manning, the Broncos or any AFC contender offered a clearer path to the Super Bowl.
New England, Baltimore, Houston, Denver, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati were the top six teams in the AFC last season. The NFC was much stronger with Green Bay, New Orleans, the Giants, Atlanta and Detroit standing in the 49ers' way.
Very good teams with very good quarterbacks fall short every year -- especially when faced with stiff competition within their conference.
Last season, Green Bay went from the cusp of 16-0 to one-and-done in the playoffs, losing at home to the Giants. The 49ers barely outlasted New Orleans in the divisional round with Alex Smith making plays even Manning could not duplicate, notably a signature 28-yard touchdown run deep in the fourth quarter.
San Francisco went 13-3 last season. Manning beat that record only twice during his 13 seasons as the Indianapolis Colts' starting quarterback.
The 49ers, 6-2 on the road last season, travel to face the Packers, Saints and Patriots outside the NFC West in 2012. They could have finished 12-4 with Manning and regressed. The Broncos can go 11-5 with him and point to a three-game improvement in the standings.
The blowout defeat Denver suffered to New England in the divisional round suggested the Broncos were championship pretenders.
From Manning's perspective, however, he's joining a team that won a playoff game without a consistent passing threat and in a conference without as many contending teams. If the job comes with lower expectations at the outset, all the better.
His reasoning?
Peter King, citing a 49ers source, says unrealistic expectations in San Francisco might have been a turn-off.
[+] Enlarge
Jerry Lai/US PresswireExpectations will be high for the Broncos with Peyton Manning under center.
Jerry Lai/US PresswireExpectations will be high for the Broncos with Peyton Manning under center.There's no sense in criticizing Manning for what a 49ers source perceived the quarterback's motivations to be. We cannot say for certain whether Manning feels that way. Surely there were multiple reasons for his decision, some of which might never become known.
The reality, however, is that anything short of a Super Bowl appearance with Manning indeed would have qualified as a disappointment for the 49ers. And there were no guarantees the 49ers were going to advance that far, even with Manning.
Much was made of Manning's potential aversion to facing his brother, Eli, in the NFC playoffs. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford also carried deterrent factors relative to most of their AFC counterparts.
If the 49ers offered the best team situation for Manning, the Broncos or any AFC contender offered a clearer path to the Super Bowl.
New England, Baltimore, Houston, Denver, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati were the top six teams in the AFC last season. The NFC was much stronger with Green Bay, New Orleans, the Giants, Atlanta and Detroit standing in the 49ers' way.
Very good teams with very good quarterbacks fall short every year -- especially when faced with stiff competition within their conference.
Last season, Green Bay went from the cusp of 16-0 to one-and-done in the playoffs, losing at home to the Giants. The 49ers barely outlasted New Orleans in the divisional round with Alex Smith making plays even Manning could not duplicate, notably a signature 28-yard touchdown run deep in the fourth quarter.
San Francisco went 13-3 last season. Manning beat that record only twice during his 13 seasons as the Indianapolis Colts' starting quarterback.
The 49ers, 6-2 on the road last season, travel to face the Packers, Saints and Patriots outside the NFC West in 2012. They could have finished 12-4 with Manning and regressed. The Broncos can go 11-5 with him and point to a three-game improvement in the standings.
The blowout defeat Denver suffered to New England in the divisional round suggested the Broncos were championship pretenders.
From Manning's perspective, however, he's joining a team that won a playoff game without a consistent passing threat and in a conference without as many contending teams. If the job comes with lower expectations at the outset, all the better.
Why young, ascending DBs can't get cocky
January, 11, 2012
Jan 11
2:21
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Mel Kiper Jr., in updating his draft-day grades for NFL teams for this Insider piece, says Seattle Seahawks rookie fifth-round pick Richard Sherman has helped to make the Seattle secondary "one of the best in the NFL in a really short period."
This is true. Sherman quickly served notice he could become one of the NFL's top corners. Fellow corner Brandon Browner and safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor also enjoyed strong seasons for Seattle.
Arizona also upgraded its secondary with cornerback Patrick Peterson. The 49ers added third-round corner Chris Culliver.
But before the NFC West's up-and-coming defensive backs get too cocky, they might want to check the 2012 list of opponents.
Every team in the division faces Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford next season. Seattle also draws Cam Newton. Arizona gets Matt Ryan and Michael Vick. The 49ers face Eli Manning and Drew Brees.
There will be plenty of opportunities for young NFC West defensive backs to prove their mettle -- and also to suffer through sophomore slumps.
In 2011, Seattle faced four quarterbacks outside the division who finished the season with more than 20 touchdown passes: Romo (31), Ryan (29), Manning (29) and Ben Roethlisberger (21). Injuries spared them from facing Jay Cutler or Vick, who failed to reach 20 touchdowns largely because they missed games.
The Seahawks are scheduled to face seven such quarterbacks outside the division in 2012, weighted heavily at the top: Rodgers (45), Stafford (41), Brady (39), Romo (31), Mark Sanchez (26), Ryan Fitzpatrick (24) and Newton (21).
Cutler could be healthy when the teams meet again in 2012. Sanchez and Fitzpatrick often struggled. Still, the top of that list is loaded.
This is true. Sherman quickly served notice he could become one of the NFL's top corners. Fellow corner Brandon Browner and safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor also enjoyed strong seasons for Seattle.
Arizona also upgraded its secondary with cornerback Patrick Peterson. The 49ers added third-round corner Chris Culliver.
But before the NFC West's up-and-coming defensive backs get too cocky, they might want to check the 2012 list of opponents.
Every team in the division faces Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford next season. Seattle also draws Cam Newton. Arizona gets Matt Ryan and Michael Vick. The 49ers face Eli Manning and Drew Brees.
There will be plenty of opportunities for young NFC West defensive backs to prove their mettle -- and also to suffer through sophomore slumps.
In 2011, Seattle faced four quarterbacks outside the division who finished the season with more than 20 touchdown passes: Romo (31), Ryan (29), Manning (29) and Ben Roethlisberger (21). Injuries spared them from facing Jay Cutler or Vick, who failed to reach 20 touchdowns largely because they missed games.
The Seahawks are scheduled to face seven such quarterbacks outside the division in 2012, weighted heavily at the top: Rodgers (45), Stafford (41), Brady (39), Romo (31), Mark Sanchez (26), Ryan Fitzpatrick (24) and Newton (21).
Cutler could be healthy when the teams meet again in 2012. Sanchez and Fitzpatrick often struggled. Still, the top of that list is loaded.
No place like home for 49ers' Alex Smith
January, 10, 2012
Jan 10
8:56
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
The San Francisco 49ers' fourth-quarter comeback victories at Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Detroit and Seattle obscured an important part of quarterback Alex Smith's game this season. He was actually much better at home.
That came into focus for an NFC West blog regular, Crimsoncrew, upon reading an earlier item about Smith and the New Orleans Saints' Drew Brees. Smith's NFL passer rating at home is 99.8 (82.7 road). His Total QBR, which also takes into account sacks and game situations, stands at 71.6 out of 100 -- a league-high 42.3 points higher than his 29.3 QBR on the road.
"Other than the Cowboys game in Week 2, which was still a decent QBR performance, Smith has been at or above Pro Bowl level in every home game," Crimsoncrew wrote. "While I'm still a bit skeptical of the mysterious formula that is the QBR, in Smith's case I absolutely believe it's more accurate than passer rating because of the number of sacks he takes rather than taking chances with the ball. Despite that, Smith has more than twice as many TDs (12 to 5), only one more INT (3 to 2), and takes less than half as many sacks (13 to 31) at home as he does on the road."
Crimsoncrew's comments initiated a call to John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information, who did the research appearing in the chart. I then asked Smith about the disparity during the 49ers' media availability session Tuesday.
"It's a great question," Smith said, unaware that Crimsoncrew was the source behind it. "Obviously, crowd noise plays into that, especially on third down, when you’re trying to throw the ball on the road. Anywhere you go, you're going to be dealing with crowd noise. So, at home, to be able to use the cadence and be able to communicate a little easier verbally, obviously helps. I think that might play into it."
The 49ers are home against New Orleans in the divisional playoffs Saturday. Thank you, Crimsoncrew, for advancing the conversation.
That came into focus for an NFC West blog regular, Crimsoncrew, upon reading an earlier item about Smith and the New Orleans Saints' Drew Brees. Smith's NFL passer rating at home is 99.8 (82.7 road). His Total QBR, which also takes into account sacks and game situations, stands at 71.6 out of 100 -- a league-high 42.3 points higher than his 29.3 QBR on the road.
"Other than the Cowboys game in Week 2, which was still a decent QBR performance, Smith has been at or above Pro Bowl level in every home game," Crimsoncrew wrote. "While I'm still a bit skeptical of the mysterious formula that is the QBR, in Smith's case I absolutely believe it's more accurate than passer rating because of the number of sacks he takes rather than taking chances with the ball. Despite that, Smith has more than twice as many TDs (12 to 5), only one more INT (3 to 2), and takes less than half as many sacks (13 to 31) at home as he does on the road."
Crimsoncrew's comments initiated a call to John McTigue of ESPN Stats & Information, who did the research appearing in the chart. I then asked Smith about the disparity during the 49ers' media availability session Tuesday.
"It's a great question," Smith said, unaware that Crimsoncrew was the source behind it. "Obviously, crowd noise plays into that, especially on third down, when you’re trying to throw the ball on the road. Anywhere you go, you're going to be dealing with crowd noise. So, at home, to be able to use the cadence and be able to communicate a little easier verbally, obviously helps. I think that might play into it."
The 49ers are home against New Orleans in the divisional playoffs Saturday. Thank you, Crimsoncrew, for advancing the conversation.
You called it: Fearless predictions (Week 18)
January, 5, 2012
Jan 5
12:02
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
The Arizona Cardinals' record fourth overtime victory of the 2011 season vaulted NINERS4Ever66 onto the "You Called It" Wall of Fame as the regular season closed.
Nice work, '66.
We'll charge forward into the playoffs even though the NFC West has the wild-card round off. Simply use the comments section of this item to predict winners and scores for the following wild-card games:
The Falcons have to be the most nervous heading into the weekend. They have yet to win a playoff game with coach Mike Smith and quarterback Matt Ryan. They have not won one since Jim Mora and Michael Vick were central figures in Atlanta following the 2004 season. The Falcons beat St. Louis that season in what stands as the most recent playoff game for the Rams.
Back to the contest this week. You'll notice I've cleaned up the Wall of Fame to show only 2011 winners. The Wall was getting a little cluttered. I've also broken out a separate chart showing our repeat winners. pope_c_hawk owns one victory in each of the past three seasons. No one else can make that claim.
Congrats to all our winners, and good luck this week.
On a side note, the "You Called It" Wall of Fame board voted 1-0 to list pre-2011 winners separately in 10-person blocks, arranged alphabetically:
And now, on to the newly configured 2011 Wall ...
.
Nice work, '66.
We'll charge forward into the playoffs even though the NFC West has the wild-card round off. Simply use the comments section of this item to predict winners and scores for the following wild-card games:
- Cincinnati at Houston.
- Detroit at New Orleans.
- Atlanta at New York Giants.
- Pittsburgh at Denver.
The Falcons have to be the most nervous heading into the weekend. They have yet to win a playoff game with coach Mike Smith and quarterback Matt Ryan. They have not won one since Jim Mora and Michael Vick were central figures in Atlanta following the 2004 season. The Falcons beat St. Louis that season in what stands as the most recent playoff game for the Rams.
Back to the contest this week. You'll notice I've cleaned up the Wall of Fame to show only 2011 winners. The Wall was getting a little cluttered. I've also broken out a separate chart showing our repeat winners. pope_c_hawk owns one victory in each of the past three seasons. No one else can make that claim.
Congrats to all our winners, and good luck this week.
On a side note, the "You Called It" Wall of Fame board voted 1-0 to list pre-2011 winners separately in 10-person blocks, arranged alphabetically:
- _Mr_Zero_, 2_Zero_Sickness, 49ers r golden, ahlycom08, allenjr16, alvaden, artman9865, asowinski33, ballsthompson, BrandonD28;
- brobbb91, CardsCrush85, catterbu, ccolling7979, chahen, cloudturo, CoasterNiner, cobra7282, cole barrick, DiLune2;
- DirtyDezzzzert, egravning, Elion245, fadein, fundadfor2, guillermoman, habitat730, henlex, IAmAtATotalLoss, IamJonasJones;
- jayric81, Jeremy-Clark, Joe_Couch, John510asb, JohnnyBloodletter, juicy2446, kstaub869, Leesters, Lv4Sublime, MalibuRuffRider;
- noahhasabs, pglenn33, pope_c_hawk, Primeau1203, redng0ld, RedRumRBS, Redzone59, RiWeagley, roadto_1, RVAninersFAN;
- salukininer, SeahawkBell, Seahawks Ya Dig, skinavich, Superfuzz777, TACOREV, the_FREAKs_cousin, TLinkWC, ttmonee, vamp2q;
- whoknewitt, wonderfuldan, workmantiny, WRESTLEMASTER24,
And now, on to the newly configured 2011 Wall ...
.
When coaches heap praise upon their QBs
December, 22, 2011
12/22/11
8:02
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Hearing Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh gush about their starting quarterbacks can create confusion over their teams' intentions.
How serious are Carroll's Seattle Seahawks and Harbaugh's San Francisco 49ers about moving into the future with Tarvaris Jackson and Alex Smith as their respective quarterbacks?
Both coaches have had their quarterbacks' backs, and then some. Even before Seattle rebounded from a 2-6 start to reach 7-7, Carroll said he could envision Jackson as the Seahawks' long-term starter. Harbaugh recently called Smith a Pro Bowl-caliber player and long-term answer at quarterback for the 49ers.
What coaches say does not always line up with what NFL owners pay.
Smith has earned a raise, but would the 49ers pay him what Pro Bowl quarterbacks typically earn?
Fourteen QBs earned Pro Bowl honors over the 2009-10 seasons: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Cassel, Brett Favre, David Garrard, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Michael Vick and Vince Young.
Most were playing under and/or subsequently earned massive contracts.
Jackson is entering the final year of a contract that scheduled to pay him $4 million in base salary. Smith is earning $4 million in base salary this season.
Those salaries represent good money for backup quarterbacks.
The 49ers should be able to keep Smith without paying him what those Pro Bowl passers earned. They've already paid millions to him as the No. 1 overall choice in the 2005 NFL draft. Smith has expressed in the past an interest in rewarding the 49ers for an investment that did not work out as intended before this season.
Smith has proven to be a good fit for the 49ers under Harbaugh. Jackson is fitting with Seattle under Carroll. I suspect both have come on strong with their public support to combat lingering negative perceptions about both quarterbacks.
If Jackson or Smith were obviously franchise quarterbacks and long-term solutions behind center, their coaches wouldn't have to convince anyone. It would be obvious. The praise from Carroll and Harbaugh has likely helped both quarterbacks exceed outside expectations no matter what their teams have in mind for them beyond this season.
How serious are Carroll's Seattle Seahawks and Harbaugh's San Francisco 49ers about moving into the future with Tarvaris Jackson and Alex Smith as their respective quarterbacks?
Both coaches have had their quarterbacks' backs, and then some. Even before Seattle rebounded from a 2-6 start to reach 7-7, Carroll said he could envision Jackson as the Seahawks' long-term starter. Harbaugh recently called Smith a Pro Bowl-caliber player and long-term answer at quarterback for the 49ers.
What coaches say does not always line up with what NFL owners pay.
Smith has earned a raise, but would the 49ers pay him what Pro Bowl quarterbacks typically earn?
Fourteen QBs earned Pro Bowl honors over the 2009-10 seasons: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Cassel, Brett Favre, David Garrard, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Michael Vick and Vince Young.
Most were playing under and/or subsequently earned massive contracts.
Jackson is entering the final year of a contract that scheduled to pay him $4 million in base salary. Smith is earning $4 million in base salary this season.
Those salaries represent good money for backup quarterbacks.
The 49ers should be able to keep Smith without paying him what those Pro Bowl passers earned. They've already paid millions to him as the No. 1 overall choice in the 2005 NFL draft. Smith has expressed in the past an interest in rewarding the 49ers for an investment that did not work out as intended before this season.
Smith has proven to be a good fit for the 49ers under Harbaugh. Jackson is fitting with Seattle under Carroll. I suspect both have come on strong with their public support to combat lingering negative perceptions about both quarterbacks.
If Jackson or Smith were obviously franchise quarterbacks and long-term solutions behind center, their coaches wouldn't have to convince anyone. It would be obvious. The praise from Carroll and Harbaugh has likely helped both quarterbacks exceed outside expectations no matter what their teams have in mind for them beyond this season.
Jim Cowsert/Icon SMITim Tebow isn't the only quarterback gaining ground in the MVP Watch discussion. Eli Manning (above) appears close to joining Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady near the top of the list.It's just not feasible.
Of course, few can do what Tim Tebow is doing in Denver.
Rank 'Em: NFL MVP Candidates
Who tops your ballot for NFL MVP heading into Week 15? Consider the candidates and submit your rankings for NFL MVP honors.
The way the Broncos' second-year quarterback and all-purpose threat suddenly becomes dominant in fourth quarters continues to confound, as does Tebow's unconventional playing style.
I found Trent Dilfer's column
helpful in making sense of the madness. The way Dilfer sees things, Tebow and Cam Newton threaten defenses far more than typical scrambling quarterbacks because defenses must respect them as primary runners, not just occasional ones.
"Defenses find themselves in the almost impossible situation of entering a three-reaction mode," Dilfer wrote. "They can't just react to the fake handoff, and they can't just second react to the threat of the pass. They have to react a third time to threat of the run by the quarterback."
As a result, coverages break down badly enough at times to leave receivers not just open, but completely uncovered. Even unrefined passers can complete passes in those situations. Tebow figures to have additional opportunities against the Patriots' weak pass defense. Count me among those who thinks the Broncos have a chance.
1. AARON RODGERS
Quarterback | Green Bay Packers ... Next Game: 12/18 at KC ... Last Poll: 1 
Rodgers has thrown an interception in back-to-back weeks for the first time since Oct. 2. Time for mass panic in Green Bay, right? Well, no. The Packers scored 84 points in those two games, with an occasional assist from their defense. Rodgers did finish a game with an NFL passer rating in double digits, something that had not happened all season. In fact, his ratings over the past two games were his lowest of the season.
Week 14 vs. OAK
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 30 | 281 | 56.7 | 9.37 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 79.0 |
2. DREW BREES
Quarterback | New Orleans Saints ... Next Game: 12/18 at MIN ... Last Poll: 2 
Brees draws plenty of attention for the passing yards he's racking up at a record pace. Let's consider some of the little things, too. Brees already has more rushing yardage (68) than he's had in any full season since 2004. He has a rushing touchdown for the first time since 2009. He has not fumbled once in 566 drop backs, despite taking nearly as many sacks (23) in 13 games as he took in 16 last season (25). Brees had 66 career fumbles in 10 previous seasons. His total interceptions (22) and fumbles (nine) last season are nearly triple his total through 13 games this season.
Week 14 at TEN
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 47 | 337 | 76.6 | 7.17 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 82.9 |
3. TOM BRADY
Quarterback | New England Patriots ... Next Game: 12/18 at DEN ... Last Poll: 3 
The interception Brady threw in the red zone against Washington was nearly as stunning as the pass Wes Welker dropped near the goal line. Brady still finished the game with a victory to go along with his second game in three weeks featuring at least 350 yards passing. Brady has taken only three sacks for minus-13 yards over his past three games, but his offensive line could not top the Redskins-Patriots officiating crew for the protection afforded the 2010 MVP. Brady is tough enough to defend without referees throwing flags for hits like the one London Fletcher delivered.
Week 14 at WAS
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 37 | 357 | 59.5 | 9.65 | 50 | 3 | 1 | 77.2 |
4. ELI MANNING
Quarterback | New York Giants ... Next Game: 12/18 vs. WAS ... Last Poll: 7 
Any doubts about Manning's value to the Giants had to have disappeared after the quarterback's latest fourth-quarter comeback victory. Manning finished the game against Dallas with 400 yards passing and no sacks in 47 drop backs against a defense featuring DeMarcus Ware. That is sensational production. Two weeks earlier, Manning took only one sack and passed for 406 yards on 48 drop backs at New Orleans. His ability to strike deep downfield in the face of pressure stands out. Manning is tied with Brady and one behind Rodgers with 15 TD passes against five or more pass-rushers, albeit on about 45-50 additional attempts.
Week 14 at DAL
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 47 | 400 | 57.4 | 8.51 | 64 | 2 | 1 | 77.1 |
5. BEN ROETHLISBERGER
Quarterback | Pittsburgh Steelers ... Next Game: 12/19 at SF ... Last Poll: 4 
Roethlisberger continued producing and made game-winning plays against Cleveland even after suffering an ankle injury that could sideline him in the future. Manning surged past Roethlisberger on the MVP Watch list and appears close to joining the well-established top tier featuring Rodgers, Brees and Brady. There can be no doubting Roethlisberger's value to the Steelers, however. That will be apparent if Roethlisberger cannot play against San Francisco on Monday night. If Roethlisberger does play, he should have opportunities for big pass plays against a 49ers defense that is stronger against the run.
Week 14 vs. CLE
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 21 | 280 | 76.2 | 13.33 | 79 | 2 | 1 | 87.5 |
6. TERRELL SUGGS
Linebacker | Baltimore Ravens ... Next Game: 12/18 at SD ... Last Poll: 8 
Those were Colts in that barrel, not fish, but it was tough to tell the difference. Suggs collected three sacks in a game for the second time in three weeks. He also forced three fumbles. Suggs has seven of his 13 sacks over the past three weeks. He faces an intriguing matchup in Week 15 against former Ravens teammate Jared Gaither, now the Chargers' left tackle. Familiarity should help, but Gaither has played well lately. Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers has taken only two sacks in 63 drop backs over the past two games. Rivers has six TDs with no INTs during those games, both San Diego victories.
Week 14 vs. IND
| TACK | SOLO | AST | SACK | FF | INT | YDS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | 0 | 3.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
7. ARIAN FOSTER
Running Back | Houston Texans ... Next Game: 12/18 vs. CAR ... Last Poll: 5 
The Texans keep winning despite losing key players. Losing defensive coordinator Wade Phillips to medical concerns stands as the latest challenge. Foster wasn't very productive during the Texans' victory at Cincinnati. He faces Carolina and Indianapolis over the next two weeks, however. The Panthers have not given much ground against the run over the past couple weeks, but that should change against Foster. As for the future matchup against Indy? Foster did not play against the Colts in Week 1, but he rushed for 335 yards and four TDs in two games against them last season.
Week 14 at CIN
| ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 21 | 0 |
8. ROB GRONKOWSKI
Tight End | New England Patriots ... Next Game: 12/18 at DEN ... Last Poll: 10 
Some resisted when the thought of a tight end joining the MVP Watch list in the No. 10 spot last week. Six receptions for 160 yards and two TDs against the Redskins only strengthened his credentials. And with Welker dropping a pass for the first time all season, Gronkowski moved past his teammate. Gronkowski has 11 total TDs over his last six games. He is averaging 15.3 yards per reception for the season. His size (6-foot-6, 265) makes him a threat to trample defenders in the open field.
Week 14 at WAS
| REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 160 | 26.7 | 50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
9. WES WELKER
Receiver | New England Patriots ... Next Game: 12/18 at DEN ... Last Poll: 6 
Down week for Welker, right? Not exactly. His production against the Redskins would translate to 112 receptions for 1,376 yards and 16 TDs over the course of a full season. No player in NFL history has hit those three figures in the same season, according to Pro Football Reference. Jerry Rice came close in 1995 when he finished with 122 catches for 1,848 yards and 15 TDs. As for Welker, yes, he finally dropped a pass. He's been much more sure-handed overall, however. His drops are down from 11 last season to just that one in 2011.
Week 14 at WAS
| REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 86 | 12.3 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
10. MATT RYAN
Quarterback | Atlanta Falcons ... Next Game: 12/15 vs. JAC ... Last Poll: NR 
Ten spots might be too many for the MVP Watch list given the number of truly viable candidates this season. Ryan has not been particularly consistent. He played poorly against Houston, then bounced back with a four-TD game against the Panthers' shoddy defense. Ryan remains on pace for career highs in passing yards and TDs. His team has an 8-5 record and has a good shot at double-digit victories. Ryan has started every game despite suffering an ugly looking ankle injury against Detroit. If it sounds like I'm not entirely sold on Ryan making the list, it's because I'm not entirely sold on Ryan making the list.
Week 14 at CAR
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 38 | 320 | 57.9 | 8.42 | 75 | 4 | 0 | 83.2 |
Bringing pressure? Some QBs simply shrug
November, 29, 2011
11/29/11
6:50
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
The best NFL quarterbacks are good against standard and added pressure alike.
Aaron Rodgers comes to mind. The Green Bay Packers' quarterback leads the NFL in Total QBR when opponents send four or fewer pass-rushers, and also when they send five or more, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Alex Smith's stronger production against five or more pass-rushers has stood out all season.
Multiple factors can produce such a disparity. A quick-thinking quarterback armed with a strong game plan and a solid protection scheme can have an advantage against added pressure. Quarterbacks working behind weaker offensive lines could suffer against standard pressure if opponents got to them without sacrificing coverage. Having additional players in coverage affords defenses with additional combinations in coverage, another consideration.
The chart immediately below ranks quarterbacks by the largest QBR disparity when facing five or more pass-rushers vs. four or fewer. Smith and Arizona's Kevin Kolb are among 11 quarterbacks with higher QBR scores against five or more rushers. They have done better against pressure, in theory. Ranking higher on the list isn't necessarily desirable; like Rodgers, a top quarterback should produce in both areas.
Fifty is an average score, with 100 as the limit.
QBR differential is an imperfect measure because point differentials nearer the margins (zero and 100) carry more significance than they do nearer the middle of the range. But the disparities are still helpful in showing how quarterbacks perform, in general, across these situations.
Rex Grossman, who heads the first chart, completed 9 of 12 passes for 117 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions and one sack when the Seahawks sent five or more rushers against him Sunday. He completed 17 of 23 passes for 197 yards with one touchdown, two interceptions and no sacks against standard pressure.
The final chart shows the 22 qualifying quarterbacks with better QBR numbers when facing four or fewer pass-rushers, again ranked by percentage difference.
Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson and St. Louis' Sam Bradford show up on this list. There is Rodgers, down at the bottom, nearly equally strong in each situation.
Aaron Rodgers comes to mind. The Green Bay Packers' quarterback leads the NFL in Total QBR when opponents send four or fewer pass-rushers, and also when they send five or more, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Alex Smith's stronger production against five or more pass-rushers has stood out all season.
- Smith vs. four or fewer rushers: six touchdowns, four interceptions and 16 sacks in 222 dropbacks, with a 47.7 QBR (50 is average) and an 84.7 NFL passer rating.
- Smith vs. five or more: seven touchdowns, one interception and 14 sacks in 106 dropbacks, with a 57.2 QBR and 105.9 NFL rating.
Multiple factors can produce such a disparity. A quick-thinking quarterback armed with a strong game plan and a solid protection scheme can have an advantage against added pressure. Quarterbacks working behind weaker offensive lines could suffer against standard pressure if opponents got to them without sacrificing coverage. Having additional players in coverage affords defenses with additional combinations in coverage, another consideration.
The chart immediately below ranks quarterbacks by the largest QBR disparity when facing five or more pass-rushers vs. four or fewer. Smith and Arizona's Kevin Kolb are among 11 quarterbacks with higher QBR scores against five or more rushers. They have done better against pressure, in theory. Ranking higher on the list isn't necessarily desirable; like Rodgers, a top quarterback should produce in both areas.
Fifty is an average score, with 100 as the limit.
QBR differential is an imperfect measure because point differentials nearer the margins (zero and 100) carry more significance than they do nearer the middle of the range. But the disparities are still helpful in showing how quarterbacks perform, in general, across these situations.
Rex Grossman, who heads the first chart, completed 9 of 12 passes for 117 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions and one sack when the Seahawks sent five or more rushers against him Sunday. He completed 17 of 23 passes for 197 yards with one touchdown, two interceptions and no sacks against standard pressure.
The final chart shows the 22 qualifying quarterbacks with better QBR numbers when facing four or fewer pass-rushers, again ranked by percentage difference.
Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson and St. Louis' Sam Bradford show up on this list. There is Rodgers, down at the bottom, nearly equally strong in each situation.
Scout's take: 49ers, Giants and the QBs
November, 8, 2011
11/08/11
6:12
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Count Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. among those looking forward to the Week 10 game pitting the 6-2 New York Giants against the 7-1 San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park.
I'll be heading down to the Bay Area for that one.
A few notes from my discussion with Williamson on Tuesday ...
Mike Sando: Let's cut right to the important stuff. Who you taking?
Matt Williamson: I like San Francisco. I don't feel super strong about it. They're not going to blow out good teams, but they are so hard to play against. Their front seven, their defense is elite. They will run the ball reasonably well against the Giants. Eli Manning is playing very well. I am curious what the Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw injury situations look like. That is a rough road trip, though. The 49ers are a better team in theory.
Mike Sando: The 49ers did blow out Tampa Bay, 48-3. Would you consider the Buccaneers to be a good team?
Matt Williamson: The Bucs are a mediocre team, a 7-9 or 8-8 team, and they are extremely young.
Mike Sando: The Giants own a couple impressive wins, but when I saw them against Arizona and Seattle, they did not seem as physical as the old NFC East pedigree suggests. Beanie Wells ran all over them. The Seahawks beat them. Seems to me the 49ers will run on them.
Matt Williamson: I was really critical of the Patriots last week for not running more. The Giants are susceptible. You know the Niners are going to come out in double-tight end sets and make them take that run away. The Giants' defense is not very good at the second level. The d-line is exceptional and better against the pass than the run. Their linebackers are awful. Michael Boley is pretty good, but he's a coverage player. I like their secondary.
Mike Sando: I saw an interesting breakdown from ESPN Stats & Information. Manning has been good in most situations and especially good when defenses come after him with five or more pass-rushers. The 49ers rarely have to send added pressure. Are they the perfect defense against Manning?
Matt Williamson: I think they are the perfect defense to beat anybody. I used to think their secondary was a liability, but it's not. Carlos Rogers is very good. Maybe he plays Nicks or Mario Manningham. Those are not terrible matchups for the 49ers with safety support. The big thing about the Giants is that Manning has been able to camouflage their weaknesses. Their offensive line has not played well at all. Their protection is not very good. That is a problem against Justin Smith.
Mike Sando: The idea that Manning is compensating for the Giants' weaknesses on offense comes while the 49ers are getting credit for "hiding" their quarterback, Alex Smith. I'd like your thoughts on the subject.
Matt Williamson: Hiding the quarterback is harder than ever. You cannot do a 2000 Ravens situation as easily now. The 49ers ask very little of Alex Smith. They would be in trouble if they were at Green Bay and down 17-0.
Mike Sando: Wouldn't everyone be in trouble down 17-0 at Green Bay?
Matt Williamson: No doubt, but the 49ers are less equipped than some teams to come from behind against a good opponent. They are efficient. Smith is not making mistakes. Jim Harbaugh has done a tremendous job with him. Smith doesn't throw it very well, but he is smart and mobile. Those are things people liked about him coming out of college. They are rolling him out, protecting him with double-tight end sets, big bodies, and the supporting cast is stepping up. He is throwing reasonably accurately, Michael Crabtree is improving, Frank Gore is playing great, Braylon Edwards could still come on. They mask Smith, but he has done what is asked of him. It's not like a Jets situation where they do everything they can to hide Mark Sanchez and he still makes eight terrible throws in a game, plus three great ones. Smith has not gone above and beyond the call, but he has not needed to. It's like criticizing teams for beating bad teams. They are the teams on the schedule.
Mike Sando: Back to Eli Manning. Like Smith, he was a No. 1 overall pick. Both are winning this season. They have similar NFL passer ratings. Let's discuss the differences.
Matt Williamson: Eli is a much better player, the foundation of that offense. Alex Smith is just a piece. Eli is making a bad offensive line serviceable. They had no Nicks, no Bradshaw last week and he is moving the team with Victor Cruz and Jake Ballard. If Manning and Smith switched teams, the Niners might be the best team in the league with Manning, including better than Green Bay, and the Giants might win two games. Going to New England without Bradshaw and Nix, the Giants would have lost 30-7 if Smith were their quarterback. What those quarterbacks are capable of isn't even close. Smith was not the usual No. 1 overall quarterback in terms of gifts.
Mike Sando: How do those gifts manifest themselves?
Matt Williamson: Someone asked me recently how good Andy Dalton can be. Before the season, I thought there were six elite quarterbacks, including Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning. Matt Ryan was probably No. 7, but he cannot get to six, whereas Sam Bradford or Matthew Stafford or Josh Freeman can. Ryan has gotten everything out of his abilities. That is Dalton to me. He can be a very effective franchise quarterback, but not elite. If anybody is going to break into that elite group, Eli is probably that guy. He can throw off his back foot in the cold and thread the needle 35 yards downfield. Eli can make that throw. Alex Smith cannot. Watch the Super Bowl and Aaron Rodgers makes four throws only a few guys on the planet can make, and that is why they win the game. The crazy, off-balance, rolling out, across his body laser throw. Joe Flacco can make that throw. Alex Smith can never make that throw, and every defensive coordinator in the world knows it.
Mike Sando: True, there are very few "wow" moments watching Smith. But the 49ers are 7-1 with him. There are games when a team needs its quarterback to make the spectacular throw, but many more games when that is not necessary. If the 49ers keep winning, they'll have an interesting decision to make. Smith's playing on a one-year deal.
Matt Williamson: It's like the Ryan Fitzpatrick situation in Buffalo, where things were going so well. Except Fitzpatrick is much streakier. He is a gunslinger without the gunslinger tools. It's tough to be critical if you sign the guy. Things are looking up, you don't want to start over with a rookie or Colin Kaepernick, you're not going to get anyone in free agency, but if you're Buffalo, you still might use a second-round pick on a guy with a big arm. Smith is a tough one, too. He is going to want money and deserve money, but if he goes somewhere else, he could really flop.
I'll be heading down to the Bay Area for that one.
A few notes from my discussion with Williamson on Tuesday ...
Mike Sando: Let's cut right to the important stuff. Who you taking?
Matt Williamson: I like San Francisco. I don't feel super strong about it. They're not going to blow out good teams, but they are so hard to play against. Their front seven, their defense is elite. They will run the ball reasonably well against the Giants. Eli Manning is playing very well. I am curious what the Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw injury situations look like. That is a rough road trip, though. The 49ers are a better team in theory.
Mike Sando: The 49ers did blow out Tampa Bay, 48-3. Would you consider the Buccaneers to be a good team?
Matt Williamson: The Bucs are a mediocre team, a 7-9 or 8-8 team, and they are extremely young.
Mike Sando: The Giants own a couple impressive wins, but when I saw them against Arizona and Seattle, they did not seem as physical as the old NFC East pedigree suggests. Beanie Wells ran all over them. The Seahawks beat them. Seems to me the 49ers will run on them.
Matt Williamson: I was really critical of the Patriots last week for not running more. The Giants are susceptible. You know the Niners are going to come out in double-tight end sets and make them take that run away. The Giants' defense is not very good at the second level. The d-line is exceptional and better against the pass than the run. Their linebackers are awful. Michael Boley is pretty good, but he's a coverage player. I like their secondary.
Mike Sando: I saw an interesting breakdown from ESPN Stats & Information. Manning has been good in most situations and especially good when defenses come after him with five or more pass-rushers. The 49ers rarely have to send added pressure. Are they the perfect defense against Manning?
Matt Williamson: I think they are the perfect defense to beat anybody. I used to think their secondary was a liability, but it's not. Carlos Rogers is very good. Maybe he plays Nicks or Mario Manningham. Those are not terrible matchups for the 49ers with safety support. The big thing about the Giants is that Manning has been able to camouflage their weaknesses. Their offensive line has not played well at all. Their protection is not very good. That is a problem against Justin Smith.
Mike Sando: The idea that Manning is compensating for the Giants' weaknesses on offense comes while the 49ers are getting credit for "hiding" their quarterback, Alex Smith. I'd like your thoughts on the subject.
Matt Williamson: Hiding the quarterback is harder than ever. You cannot do a 2000 Ravens situation as easily now. The 49ers ask very little of Alex Smith. They would be in trouble if they were at Green Bay and down 17-0.
Mike Sando: Wouldn't everyone be in trouble down 17-0 at Green Bay?
Matt Williamson: No doubt, but the 49ers are less equipped than some teams to come from behind against a good opponent. They are efficient. Smith is not making mistakes. Jim Harbaugh has done a tremendous job with him. Smith doesn't throw it very well, but he is smart and mobile. Those are things people liked about him coming out of college. They are rolling him out, protecting him with double-tight end sets, big bodies, and the supporting cast is stepping up. He is throwing reasonably accurately, Michael Crabtree is improving, Frank Gore is playing great, Braylon Edwards could still come on. They mask Smith, but he has done what is asked of him. It's not like a Jets situation where they do everything they can to hide Mark Sanchez and he still makes eight terrible throws in a game, plus three great ones. Smith has not gone above and beyond the call, but he has not needed to. It's like criticizing teams for beating bad teams. They are the teams on the schedule.
Mike Sando: Back to Eli Manning. Like Smith, he was a No. 1 overall pick. Both are winning this season. They have similar NFL passer ratings. Let's discuss the differences.
Matt Williamson: Eli is a much better player, the foundation of that offense. Alex Smith is just a piece. Eli is making a bad offensive line serviceable. They had no Nicks, no Bradshaw last week and he is moving the team with Victor Cruz and Jake Ballard. If Manning and Smith switched teams, the Niners might be the best team in the league with Manning, including better than Green Bay, and the Giants might win two games. Going to New England without Bradshaw and Nix, the Giants would have lost 30-7 if Smith were their quarterback. What those quarterbacks are capable of isn't even close. Smith was not the usual No. 1 overall quarterback in terms of gifts.
Mike Sando: How do those gifts manifest themselves?
Matt Williamson: Someone asked me recently how good Andy Dalton can be. Before the season, I thought there were six elite quarterbacks, including Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning. Matt Ryan was probably No. 7, but he cannot get to six, whereas Sam Bradford or Matthew Stafford or Josh Freeman can. Ryan has gotten everything out of his abilities. That is Dalton to me. He can be a very effective franchise quarterback, but not elite. If anybody is going to break into that elite group, Eli is probably that guy. He can throw off his back foot in the cold and thread the needle 35 yards downfield. Eli can make that throw. Alex Smith cannot. Watch the Super Bowl and Aaron Rodgers makes four throws only a few guys on the planet can make, and that is why they win the game. The crazy, off-balance, rolling out, across his body laser throw. Joe Flacco can make that throw. Alex Smith can never make that throw, and every defensive coordinator in the world knows it.
Mike Sando: True, there are very few "wow" moments watching Smith. But the 49ers are 7-1 with him. There are games when a team needs its quarterback to make the spectacular throw, but many more games when that is not necessary. If the 49ers keep winning, they'll have an interesting decision to make. Smith's playing on a one-year deal.
Matt Williamson: It's like the Ryan Fitzpatrick situation in Buffalo, where things were going so well. Except Fitzpatrick is much streakier. He is a gunslinger without the gunslinger tools. It's tough to be critical if you sign the guy. Things are looking up, you don't want to start over with a rookie or Colin Kaepernick, you're not going to get anyone in free agency, but if you're Buffalo, you still might use a second-round pick on a guy with a big arm. Smith is a tough one, too. He is going to want money and deserve money, but if he goes somewhere else, he could really flop.
Alex Cool? Smith leads NFL in comebacks
November, 2, 2011
11/02/11
9:58
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Grading Alex Smith's play during the San Francisco 49ers' 6-1 start has become one of the more fascinating pursuits of this 2011 NFC West season.
Smith, long a divisive subject among 49ers fans, remains one even during the team's best start since 1998.
It's easy to see why.
Smith ranks among the top 10 quarterbacks in NFL passer rating. He has led three fourth-quarter comeback victories, all on the road. Yet he ranks only 18th in yards per attempt and 24th in yards per game. And despite occasionally setting a high standard for Total QBR, Smith ranks only 24th in the ESPN statistic measuring how quarterbacks impact their teams' chances for winning.
We've had almost as much fun debating the merits of QBR as we've had debating all things Smith, but any quarterback stat ranking Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees above all others, with Tim Tebow dead last, must be onto something.
Let's set aside the stats for a moment. Fourth-quarter comeback victories have long served as the measure of a quarterback's mettle. Pro Football Reference has done outstanding work in defining and validating them. From their work, we're able to see all fourth-quarter comeback victories for the 49ers since 1960. We can also generate a list for all NFL quarterbacks this season -- a list showing Smith atop the NFL with three, all on the road.
The chart breaks down 2011 fourth-quarter comeback victories by quarterback and venue. Smith and the New York Giants lead the league with three. Smith is the only one with three on the road. A quick look at them:
Now, on to the chart ...
Smith, long a divisive subject among 49ers fans, remains one even during the team's best start since 1998.
It's easy to see why.
Smith ranks among the top 10 quarterbacks in NFL passer rating. He has led three fourth-quarter comeback victories, all on the road. Yet he ranks only 18th in yards per attempt and 24th in yards per game. And despite occasionally setting a high standard for Total QBR, Smith ranks only 24th in the ESPN statistic measuring how quarterbacks impact their teams' chances for winning.
We've had almost as much fun debating the merits of QBR as we've had debating all things Smith, but any quarterback stat ranking Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees above all others, with Tim Tebow dead last, must be onto something.
Let's set aside the stats for a moment. Fourth-quarter comeback victories have long served as the measure of a quarterback's mettle. Pro Football Reference has done outstanding work in defining and validating them. From their work, we're able to see all fourth-quarter comeback victories for the 49ers since 1960. We can also generate a list for all NFL quarterbacks this season -- a list showing Smith atop the NFL with three, all on the road.
The chart breaks down 2011 fourth-quarter comeback victories by quarterback and venue. Smith and the New York Giants lead the league with three. Smith is the only one with three on the road. A quick look at them:
- At Cincinnati, Week 3: With the 49ers trailing 6-3 in the fourth quarter, Smith completes 4 of 8 passes for 48 yards during a 10-play, 72-yard touchdown drive. The 49ers win the game, 13-8.
- At Philadelphia, Week 4: The 49ers won this one in the fourth quarter on the strength of their running game and defense. Smith completed 9 of 9 passes for 179 yards and two touchdowns in the third quarter, when the 49ers erased most of a 20-point deficit. He completed 4 of 8 passes for 22 yards, no first downs and a sack in the final 15 minutes.
- At Detroit, Week 6: Smith and the passing game struggled most of the way, but with the game on the line, Smith found Delanie Walker for the go-ahead touchdown on a fourth-down play with 1:56 remaining.
Now, on to the chart ...
How quarterbacks perform under 'duress'
October, 20, 2011
10/20/11
2:41
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
A few notes and observations regarding how NFC West quarterbacks have performed when under duress, defined by ESPN Stats & Information as situations when defensive pressure forced players to throw early, off-balance or when they were getting hit:
Seattle's Charlie Whitehurst hasn't played enough to qualify for consideration. Thanks to Marty Callinan of ESPN Stats & Information for providing the numbers. Here's hoping I've explained it well enough to stop your cranium from feeling under duress.
Update: At the outset, I defined duress as plays when defensive pressure forced players to throw early, off-balance or when they were getting hit. Duress also covers non-throwing plays when pressure forced players to scramble or take a sack.
- Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams: Bradford has completed only 5 of 38 passes in these situations. That works out to 13.2 percent, by far the lowest in the league. Oakland's Jason Campbell was next at 22.6 percent before his season-ending injury. Ben Roethlisberger (61.1 percent), Donovan McNabb (54.3), Jay Cutler (50.9) and Cam Newton (50.0) are the only players completing at least half their passes under duress. Dropped passes, covered receivers and holding the ball too long have hurt the Rams. Bradford has been under duress on 25.9 percent of all plays and 18.7 percent of plays featuring pass attempts. Those figures are middle-of-the-pack among players with at least 20 total plays under duress. Two players running versions of the Rams' offense, Tom Brady and Matt Cassel, rank 1-2 in fewest percentage of passes delivered under duress. It's not necessarily the system, in other words. Brady has a lower NFL passer rating than Bradford (30.6 to 39.6) in these situations, having completed 9 of 26 passes for 98 yards and an interception. Cassel's rating (13.5) ranks last in the league. Bradford ranks 32nd out of 34 players (min. 20 plays) in Total QBR (0.5) when under duress. Tony Romo is No. 1 at 46.6. Note that Total QBR figures apply to all plays. I did not ask for separate QBR figures, only those plays featuring pass attempts, only because the stat, by definition, takes into account scrambles, sacks, fumbles, etc.
- Kevin Kolb, Arizona Cardinals: Kolb has been under duress on 32.3 percent of all plays and 23.4 percent plays with pass attempts. Both figures are fourth-highest in the NFL. His 69.4 NFL passer rating in these situations ranks ninth in the league. Kolb has completed 19 of 44 passes for 291 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions on these throws. Michael Vick is the only player in the league with as many touchdown passes under duress, but he also has five interceptions. The improbable scoring pass Kolb threw to Larry Fitzgerald at Seattle comes to mind. Mostly because of sacks and fumbles, Kolb ranks only 27th in Total QBR (1.4) among the 34 players with at least 20 total plays under duress. The lesson? Kolb has made some good things happen when under duress. His relatively high passer rating says as much. But there have been too many negative plays. He knows he's not Roethlisberger and said so this week, but sometimes he plays as though he does not know this.
- Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks: Jackson has completed 12 of 28 passes for 136 yards with one touchdown and one interception when under duress. His 55.1 NFL passer rating when throwing under duress ranks 14th in the league -- ahead of some big names (Matthew Stafford, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Romo, Bradford, Vick, Brady, etc). Eli Manning (95.3) and Matt Hasselbeck (87.1) are exceptions as players with exceptionally high NFL ratings under duress this season. Jackson ranks 12th, right behind Kolb, in completion percentage on these throws. While the sacks Jackson has taken largely explain his 20th-ranked QBR of 3.6 when under duress, 27 of the qualifying 34 players are below 15.0 in QBR in these situations. Even the best quarterbacks tend to struggle when under duress. Minimizing damage is key. Jackson has been under duress on 27.8 percent of all plays, ninth-most in the league. He has taken sacks and generally avoided turnovers, explaining why he has been under duress only 16.8 percent of the time on plays featuring pass attempts. That 16.8 figure is among the 12 lowest in the NFL.
- Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers: When the 49ers were 0-5 last season, Smith was leading the NFL in most pass attempts while throwing under duress, despite taking 10 sacks on these plays. He has attempted 12 fewer passes under duress through one additional game this season, and his NFL passer rating is 61.9, which ranks 12th, as opposed to the 8.1 rating he had while under duress during the 0-5 start. That suggests the 49ers' scheme and play-calling are giving Smith superior options against pressure. Smith has completed 12 of 29 passes for 176 yards when under duress. Smith has been under duress on 26 percent of all plays (13th-most in the league) and 17.6 percent of those featuring pass attempts (20th-most among qualifiers). Even so, Smith's Total QBR for all plays under duress (not just those with pass attempts) lags at 2.5. This is because Smith is tied with Kolb for the worst expected-points figure in the league when it comes to taking sacks (minus-14 points for each player). My feel is that Smith has improved in this area lately.
Seattle's Charlie Whitehurst hasn't played enough to qualify for consideration. Thanks to Marty Callinan of ESPN Stats & Information for providing the numbers. Here's hoping I've explained it well enough to stop your cranium from feeling under duress.
Update: At the outset, I defined duress as plays when defensive pressure forced players to throw early, off-balance or when they were getting hit. Duress also covers non-throwing plays when pressure forced players to scramble or take a sack.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Mike Sando
Sando joined ESPN.com in 2007 after nine seasons covering the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma (Wash.) News Tribune. He lives in the Seattle-Tacoma area with his wife and two sons.
