NFC West: Matthew Stafford
"Floyd's presence may force defenses into more zone coverages, because it will be hard to double Larry Fitzgerald and match up man-to-man against Floyd," Clayton theorized. "Irvin is probably the draft's best pass-rusher and should put up double-digit sack numbers early in his career."
Let's consider that a launching point for a discussion EDTGO jump-started from his luxury box in the comments section of an earlier item on Arizona's draft thinking.
"Floyd will be starting and will have the best position of the rookies to get stats," he wrote.
Rookie receivers making at least 10 starts from 2009 through last season averaged 46 receptions for 721 yards and five touchdowns, according to Pro Football Reference. Cincinnati's A.J. Green and Tampa Bay's Mike Williams had the most receptions of the group (65 apiece). Green, Williams and Julio Jones each topped 900 yards. Those three joined Torrey Smith as the only ones with more than six touchdown receptions.
We shouldn't forget about St. Louis Rams second-round receiver Brian Quick. He has a good chance at starting. The Rams thought Quick reminded them of Terrell Owens from a physical standpoint. Owens had 35 catches for 520 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie, making 10 starts.
The status for San Francisco 49ers first-round receiver A.J. Jenkins could be tougher to define initially. He could wind up starting if the Randy Moss experiment does not work out. He could also ease into the role, getting fewer opportunities as the 49ers run their offense through other players primarily.
Double-digit sacks from Irvin might be enough to eclipse for impact the projected receiving numbers from Floyd, Quick or Jenkins.
Five rookies since 2009 have collected at least 10 sacks. San Francisco's Aldon Smith, with 14 sacks last season, was the only one to do so as a backup. Von Miller, Brian Orakpo, Clay Matthews and Ndamukong Suh -- all first-round choices, as were Smith and Irvin -- reached double digits in sacks while starting at least 13 games.
Carlos Dunlap had 9.5 sacks in 12 games, none of them starts, for Cincinnati in 2010.
Irvin should benefit from the Seahawks' very specific plans for him. The team got nine sacks in zero starts from Raheem Brock in 2010. Irvin will play a similar role and a similar percentage of the snaps, giving him a very good chance to eclipse Brock's total -- if he's talented enough to produce those numbers. Brock played about 50 percent of the snaps for Seattle in each of the last two seasons.
Who else deserves our consideration?
"Janoris Jenkins has a shot ... assuming he can keep his head on straight," ramm428a wrote.
"Yep," randdles wrote, "Jenkins will get to face five of the top QBs this year, he could make a big impact."
Matthew Stafford, Robert Griffin III, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are among the high-profile quarterbacks Jenkins, a second-round cornerback with first-round talent, will face in his initial season with the Rams. Jenkins will face those quarterbacks by Week 8, giving him a chance to shape perceptions early.
Devin McCourty and Joe Haden are the only drafted cornerbacks to exceed five interceptions as rookies over the past three seasons.
"Michael Brockers could have a huge impact," JohnnyP3180 wrote of the Rams' first-round choice. "Not flashy, but he could make the biggest difference for his team."
That might be true, but as a run stuffer, Brockers probably won't accumulate the stats players often need to draw acclaim. We'll be sure to monitor Brockers' contributions closely regardless.
.
Smith ranked ninth in NFL passer rating among a broader group featuring Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Matthew Stafford, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers.
The 49ers' coach, Jim Harbaugh, called Smith "elite" and promoted him for the Pro Bowl. But when it came time for the 49ers to pay Smith this offseason, they gave him a three-year deal with an easy out for the team after one season. The contract bore little resemblance to the ones those other quarterbacks have commanded.
Joe Robbins/Getty ImagesAlex Smith ranked ninth in passer rating but 22nd in QBR last season.Smith, despite quite a few high single-game QBR scores when playing at home, ranked 22nd among qualifying quarterbacks overall with a 46.4 score out of 100 (50 is average). His share of blame for the sacks he took hurt his team more than the sacks any other qualifying player took, a huge drain on his score.
The weekly in-season "QBR Ranks" posts on this blog provided the basis for discussions on NFC West quarterback play. We had some healthy debates over the usefulness of QBR and how it could be improved. Some of those discussions go on internally, too.
Jeff Bennett, Dean Oliver and the Analytics Team are making a couple tweaks to the formula.
The changes will lessen the blame quarterbacks receive when they fumble during a sack, shifting more of the blame to offensive lines. Also, kneeldowns and spikes will no longer factor; those plays had very little impact on QBR over the season, but they wielded more influence on single-game scores.
Smith fumbled seven times and lost two of them. His fumbles were not particularly costly overall, allowing Smith to rank ninth in fewest expected points lost to fumbles. Brees was first. Tim Tebow was last.
These QBR tweaks were relatively minor. The Analytics Team discussed other possibilities at the most recent Sloan Sports Conference.
"One of the things that does sit a little bit on my mind is that we fundamentally have to do it on a per-play basis because we're going to be looking at how well did they play on third down vs. second down vs. five or more rushers and these are great," Oliver said recently at the conference. "One of the things I wonder about is whether that is the right basis for evaluating a quarterback overall."
The current system assigns greater value to scoring drives requiring fewer plays, all else equal, on the theory that scoring quickly would be more impressive than if finding the end zone took longer.
"We talked about some sort of QBR per drive, because if you go 80 yards in three plays vs. 80 yards in 12 plays, why should the three-play drive be four times better than the 12-play drive?" Oliver said. "In many cases, the 12-play drive is better. I don't know how we do that, but it is something we have talked about.
"For most of the work that we do, that doesn't affect anything, but I think it's a great conceptual question that hopefully we can figure out in the near future."
I found QBR most useful when it diverged significantly from NFL passer rating, as it did notably for Smith. Using the formula to declare one quarterback absolutely better than another made little sense. But if we could find out why QBR diverged from NFL passer rating or our perceptions in general, that could be of value.
For Smith, taking sacks spelled a large part of the discrepancy. Some made the case that Smith's offensive line was disproportionately responsible for many of those sacks. I thought Smith was content taking sacks to avoid interceptions, a tradeoff that helped explain the gap between NFL passer rating, which does not account for sacks, and QBR, which does.
My current take: Offensive lines are more to blame for some sacks, perhaps explaining why a QBR score suffered unexpectedly for a single game. Overall, though, the blame distribution evens out, creating more reliable results for a full season.
This discussion isn't for everyone. Apologies to those who don't care for analytics as they relate to football. My hope is to find more relevant applications.
After focusing on run, division looks to air
Coaches in Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis have promoted run-first philosophies. Arizona has invested first- and second-round picks in running backs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, respectively.
Run, run, run.
And yet the division focused on the passing game quite a bit during the 2012 NFL draft -- on both sides of the ball. NFC West teams drafted a league-high three wide receivers in the first two rounds. Teams from the division drafted three cornerbacks in the first three rounds, tied with the NFC North for most in the league.
The charts show how many receivers and corners each division added through the first three rounds. The combined total for the NFC West (six) was the most for any division, one more than the NFC North.
St. Louis drafted cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins (second round) and Trumaine Johnson (third round). Arizona used a third-round choice for cornerback Jamell Fleming. Arizona (Michael Floyd) and San Francisco (A.J. Jenkins) used first-round picks for receivers. St. Louis added receiver Brian Quick in the second round (and another receiver, Chris Givens, in the fourth).
NFC West pass defenses could face additional pressure given the scheduling rotation in 2012.
Every NFC West team faces New England with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker.
The division also faces Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson), Detroit (Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew) and Chicago (Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall).
San Francisco draws New Orleans (Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston) and the New York Giants (Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz). Arizona faces Philadelphia (Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin) and Atlanta (Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones). Seattle faces Dallas (Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant) and Carolina (Cam Newton, Steve Smith).
The top five teams in 2011 passing yardage -- New Orleans, New England, Green Bay, Detroit and the Giants -- show up on NFC West schedules. Green Bay, New England, the Giants and Saints comprised the top four in yards per passing attempt. The top seven teams in passing touchdowns -- Green Bay, New Orleans, Detroit, New England, Dallas, Atlanta and the Giants -- play a combined 16 games against the NFC West.
And, of course, NFC West teams must face each other, which means games against Larry Fitzgerald, Vernon Davis, Randy Moss, Sidney Rice and others.
His reasoning?
Peter King, citing a 49ers source, says unrealistic expectations in San Francisco might have been a turn-off.
Jerry Lai/US PresswireExpectations will be high for the Broncos with Peyton Manning under center.There's no sense in criticizing Manning for what a 49ers source perceived the quarterback's motivations to be. We cannot say for certain whether Manning feels that way. Surely there were multiple reasons for his decision, some of which might never become known.
The reality, however, is that anything short of a Super Bowl appearance with Manning indeed would have qualified as a disappointment for the 49ers. And there were no guarantees the 49ers were going to advance that far, even with Manning.
Much was made of Manning's potential aversion to facing his brother, Eli, in the NFC playoffs. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford also carried deterrent factors relative to most of their AFC counterparts.
If the 49ers offered the best team situation for Manning, the Broncos or any AFC contender offered a clearer path to the Super Bowl.
New England, Baltimore, Houston, Denver, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati were the top six teams in the AFC last season. The NFC was much stronger with Green Bay, New Orleans, the Giants, Atlanta and Detroit standing in the 49ers' way.
Very good teams with very good quarterbacks fall short every year -- especially when faced with stiff competition within their conference.
Last season, Green Bay went from the cusp of 16-0 to one-and-done in the playoffs, losing at home to the Giants. The 49ers barely outlasted New Orleans in the divisional round with Alex Smith making plays even Manning could not duplicate, notably a signature 28-yard touchdown run deep in the fourth quarter.
San Francisco went 13-3 last season. Manning beat that record only twice during his 13 seasons as the Indianapolis Colts' starting quarterback.
The 49ers, 6-2 on the road last season, travel to face the Packers, Saints and Patriots outside the NFC West in 2012. They could have finished 12-4 with Manning and regressed. The Broncos can go 11-5 with him and point to a three-game improvement in the standings.
The blowout defeat Denver suffered to New England in the divisional round suggested the Broncos were championship pretenders.
From Manning's perspective, however, he's joining a team that won a playoff game without a consistent passing threat and in a conference without as many contending teams. If the job comes with lower expectations at the outset, all the better.
Five thoughts on a Manning-free division
Five considerations now that Peyton Manning has told the San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans he plans to sign with the Denver Broncos:
- Big sighs of relief: Arizona, Seattle and St. Louis no longer must worry about defending against a Manning-led 49ers offense. A healthy Manning would have made the 49ers even more formidable than they were while going 5-1 against the division last season. It's looking like the Seahawks will be the team in the division with the best shot at upgrading their quarterback situation.
More On Manning
Peyton Picks Broncos:
You can call this The Drive Part III: John Elway's determination to get Peyton Manning makes the Broncos a contender again, Ashley Fox writes. Story 
Peyton Manning's decision to play for the Broncos is very bad news for the rest of the AFC West, John Clayton writes. Story 
Manning has a kindred spirit in his corner with Elway as his boss, a big reason why he picked the Broncos, Bill Williamson writes. Blog• How Manning fits
• How good are Broncos?
• NFL Nation: Bloggers react
• Mike and Mike: Chris Mortensen
Tim Tebow Watch:
Mel Kiper breaks down five teams that may be interested in Denver quarterback Tim Tebow, now that Peyton Manning looks to be the starting QB for the Broncos. Story • NFL Nation: Bloggers on Tebow's fate
• Rumors: Who wants Tebow?
• ESPN Boston: Tebow a fit for Pats?
• Vote: Tebow's future in NFL?SportsNation:
Peyton Manning's pick of a team set Twitter abuzz and drew reaction from several current and former NFL players. Not all (Deion Sanders) were fans of the move. Reaction • Vote: Peyton, Broncos a good fit?
• Vote: Rank Broncos after move
• Quiz: Broncos QBs since 2000More:
• Fantasy: Broncos WRs gain value
• Stats & Info: What Manning brings
• Peyton Manning photo gallery - Harbaugh must take lead: The seemingly special bond between 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh and 2011 starter Alex Smith could need some repairing. That should not be too difficult if Harbaugh has been forthright with Smith throughout the process. The 49ers, like the Cardinals, will want to define their interest in Manning as a special case unrelated to their incumbent quarterback. Re-signing Smith should be a no-brainer now.
- Smith's only logical option. Smith has made it known he wants to continue playing for the 49ers. Hurt feelings suffered during negotiations and the Manning diversion should not be grounds for divorce. Unless Smith acts hastily out of anger, which seems unlikely given his temperament, the 49ers should now be able to re-sign Smith to a deal that gives them the flexibility to hand things over to Colin Kaepernick in the next couple years if Smith falters. The 49ers did lose some leverage, however, when Manning picked Denver over Tennessee. A deal with the Titans would have pushed Matt Hasselbeck onto the market.
- Forget about Tim Tebow. The Broncos wanted Manning not only because Manning is a great quarterback when healthy, but also because the organization was seeking a Tebow exit strategy. Manning's acquisition provides the perfect cover for Broncos executive John Elway, who has made clear his feelings that Tebow's playing style is not sustainable. I would not anticipate NFC West teams having interest in Tebow if the Broncos tried to trade him.
- Manning not on schedule. NFC West teams do not play the Broncos in 2012. They still face a lengthy list of talented quarterbacks, including Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo and Jay Cutler. Every NFC West team does face the Miami Dolphins, who lost out on Manning, did not sign Flynn and could have a tougher time signing Smith now that the 49ers have lost out on Manning.
It's a relief to have the Manning situation resolved. I was looking forward to the possibility of having him in the division, however, whether with Arizona or San Francisco.
Talent, value and 49ers' approach at corner
Rogers put together a Pro Bowl season, positioning himself for a big payday.
The 49ers now have options. They could sign the 30-year-old corner at a premium price. They could seek another bargain at the position. They could try to sign Rogers once the market settles, provided he remains unsigned. They could identify younger talent at the position and proceed accordingly.
The team has already signed former Denver Broncos starter Perrish Cox to a two-year deal. Initial reports are linking the 49ers to former Kansas City cornerback Brandon Carr and Detroit Lions corner Eric Wright in free agency.
It's early and I would caution against making assumptions prematurely. I'll be watching to see how much money the 49ers invest in the position. Their current leadership released Nate Clements and the fat contract Clements signed as a free agent years earlier. That same leadership gave former starter Shawntae Spencer permission to seek a trade. The 49ers used 2011 third- and seventh-round choices on corners.
NFC West teams face a long list of top quarterbacks in 2012. The 49ers are scheduled to go against Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning and Drew Brees.
Purely from a football standpoint, they would likely be best off with Rogers. That doesn't necessarily make him the best value.
These 49ers prove they can win many ways
They ground out a 13-8 victory on the road against a rookie quarterback, Andy Dalton.
They won what turned into a 36-32 postseason shootout against the NFL's hottest quarterback, Drew Brees.
They came back from 20 points down in the second half to beat Philadelphia on the road. They ran away from previously 3-1 Tampa Bay to win a blowout, 48-3.
With the 49ers sitting one victory away from the Super Bowl, I went through their games looking for threads tying together their victories and defeats this season.
Turnovers are generally key for any team; the 49ers led the league in differential. But as the game against Detroit demonstrated, the 49ers could beat a good team on the road without prevailing in that pivotal category. That was one of six games this season the 49ers won after trailing in the fourth quarter.
A few things jumped out over the course of the season, counting playoffs:
- The 49ers gave up 20 sacks in their three defeats. That included nine at Baltimore, six against Dallas and five at Arizona. They allowed 28 sacks in their 14 victories.
- Attacking the 49ers' pass defense is key. The 49ers' record was 0-2 when allowing more than 8.5 yards per pass attempt and 2-3 when allowing more than 6.6. They were 12-0 when allowing less than that. The 49ers were also 9-0 when collecting at least three sacks. They were 1-2 when opponents completed better than 65 percent of their pass attempts. The Giants' Eli Manning completed 65 percent. The 49ers batted down his final pass to help preserve their 27-20 victory.
- The chart ranks opposing quarterbacks by yards per play when dropping back to pass or scrambling. The quarterbacks ranking near the top generally defeated the 49ers or made them sweat out victories. Dallas connected on long pass plays late to beat San Francisco. Arizona had pass plays for 60, 53 and 46 yards during its victory over the 49ers. The chart shows only regular-season opponents, but the Saints' Drew Brees nearly beat the 49ers with 66- and 44-yard touchdown passes.
- Attacking the 49ers' run defense seems less critical. The 49ers were 12-0 when allowing more than 2.6 yards per rushing attempt. They were 2-3 when allowing less than that. Yes, you read that correctly. They even went 3-1 when allowing 25 or more rushing attempts. They were 11-1 when allowing more than 55 yards rushing, including 4-0 when they allowed more than 92.
- The 49ers were 3-2 when allowing more than 20 points, including 2-1 when they allowed 27 or more. They were 4-0 when allowing more than 20 first downs and 9-1 when allowing more than 16 of them. They were 10-1 when opponents ran at least 60 plays and 4-2 in the other games.
- Venue matters. Alex Smith has 15 touchdown passes, three interceptions and 17 sacks in nine home games. He has five touchdown passes, two interceptions and 31 sacks in eight road games.
- Vernon Davis matters. Davis has 67 receptions for 884 yards and eight touchdowns in the 49ers' 14 victories. He has seven receptions for 88 yards and no touchdowns in three defeats. He averages 2.1 times as many receptions for 2.2 times as many yards in the 49ers' victories.
Those are a few variables I noticed. There are quite a few others, surely. Which ones matter most in your view?
Why young, ascending DBs can't get cocky
This is true. Sherman quickly served notice he could become one of the NFL's top corners. Fellow corner Brandon Browner and safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor also enjoyed strong seasons for Seattle.
Arizona also upgraded its secondary with cornerback Patrick Peterson. The 49ers added third-round corner Chris Culliver.
But before the NFC West's up-and-coming defensive backs get too cocky, they might want to check the 2012 list of opponents.
Every team in the division faces Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford next season. Seattle also draws Cam Newton. Arizona gets Matt Ryan and Michael Vick. The 49ers face Eli Manning and Drew Brees.
There will be plenty of opportunities for young NFC West defensive backs to prove their mettle -- and also to suffer through sophomore slumps.
In 2011, Seattle faced four quarterbacks outside the division who finished the season with more than 20 touchdown passes: Romo (31), Ryan (29), Manning (29) and Ben Roethlisberger (21). Injuries spared them from facing Jay Cutler or Vick, who failed to reach 20 touchdowns largely because they missed games.
The Seahawks are scheduled to face seven such quarterbacks outside the division in 2012, weighted heavily at the top: Rodgers (45), Stafford (41), Brady (39), Romo (31), Mark Sanchez (26), Ryan Fitzpatrick (24) and Newton (21).
Cutler could be healthy when the teams meet again in 2012. Sanchez and Fitzpatrick often struggled. Still, the top of that list is loaded.
Of course, Pat will be the one reaching out as part of the long-established "gentleman's agreement" requiring bloggers covering lower-seeded teams to contact those for higher-seeded teams during the week leading up to a playoff matchup.
Each of us will be making a case for the teams from the divisions we cover. That's where you come in. How can the 49ers win this game?
I began throwing out a few notes on the subject during Twitter exchanges Saturday night. I'll revisit them here to get the conversation going:
- The Saints played 11 indoor games during the regular season, averaging 38 points per game in them. They averaged 23.8 in their last four outdoor games. Weather should not be a problem Saturday, but the grass at Candlestick Park can be slick anyway.
- The Saints' last two outdoor games included a 22-17 victory at Tennesse and a 26-20 defeat at Tampa Bay. The Titans were eighth in points allowed this season. The Bucs were 32nd.
- The 49ers have allowed 10 total points in their last three home games, although the opposing quarterbacks were limited (an injured Ben Roethlisberger, A.J. Feeley and John Skelton).
- The 49ers played four explosive quarterbacks. They beat Michael Vick and Matthew Stafford on the road. They lost to Tony Romo at home. They beat Eli Manning at home. The 49ers allowed 422.5 total yards per game against those quarterbacks' teams, compared to 270.1 yards per game against everyone else. But they still went 3-1.
- Granted, Frank Gore did not finish the season strong. The 49ers still had 178 yards rushing at Seattle in Week 16, with Kendall Hunter and Alex Smith contributing.
- The St. Louis Rams (this season) and 49ers (last season) are the last two teams to hold the Saints beneath 300 yards.
I'm not predicting a 49ers victory, necessarily. But neither would I rule one out. If you are among those liking the 49ers' chances, please elaborate. Thanks.
Derick E. Hingle/US PresswireDrew Brees broke Dan Marino's 27-year-old single-season passing record Monday night.The manner in which Brees broke the record shouldn't matter too much in the end because Brees needed only 15 games to break it. Yes, the Saints kept passing during their blowout victory over Atlanta solely because they wanted Brees to get the record. But if the record hadn't fallen Monday night, Brees likely would have claimed it against Carolina in Week 17 -- a game the Saints must win for any shot at the NFC's second seed in the playoffs.
Rank 'Em: NFL MVP Candidates
Who tops your ballot for NFL MVP heading into Week 17? Consider the candidates and submit your rankings for NFL MVP honors.
Marino entered the 1984 regular-season finale against the Dallas Cowboys with a chance to clinch home-field advantage through the AFC playoffs.
A week earlier, Marino had thrown four second-half touchdown passes to turn a 17-7 deficit into a 35-17 victory over Indianapolis. Needing just 19 yards against the Cowboys to break Fouts' record, Marino closed the season with a 340-yard effort featuring the winning 63-yard touchdown pass to Mark Clayton with 51 seconds remaining.
The Cowboys had tied the game with 1:47 remaining on a deflected 66-yard pass that Tony Hill caught off the rebound.
"The final moments were as stunning and sensational as in any game this season," the New York Times' Michael Janofsky wrote at the time.
Marino was the MVP, of course. Brees, despite his record-setting ways, stands second on our list again this week. Rodgers has more touchdown passes and fewer interceptions for a team with a better record and a Week 1 victory over Brees' Saints. But if Green Bay rests Rodgers and its starters while Brees outduels Cam Newton in Week 17, then what?
1. AARON RODGERS
Quarterback | Green Bay Packers ... Next Game: 1/1 vs. DET ... Last Poll: 1 
Like Brees, Rodgers spent Week 16 shining on a national stage. His five TD passes without an INT came after a couple down games statistically (at least by Rodgers' standards). Rodgers' 45 TD passes are the fourth most in NFL history and five short of the record Tom Brady set in 2007. What will the Packers do in Week 17? A consideration, from ESPN Stats & Information: "The Packers have won their final regular-season game in each of the last eight seasons, the longest active win streak of any team in regular-season finales. Green Bay is 16-1 in its final regular-season game since 1994."
Week 16 vs. CHI
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 29 | 283 | 72.4 | 9.76 | 55 | 5 | 0 | 95.9 |
2. DREW BREES
Quarterback | New Orleans Saints ... Next Game: 1/1 vs. CAR ... Last Poll: 2 
Marino averaged 9.0 yards per attempt during his historic season. Brees checks in at 8.2 YPA this season. His completion percentage (70.7) would set an NFL single-season record. From ESPN Stats & Information: "Brees has thrown a passing TD in 42 straight games, five shy of tying Johnny Unitas' NFL record set from 1956-60. Brees also has a streak of 35 straight games with at least 20 completions, an NFL record, and is moving up the leaderboard in a variety of other categories." Those would include most 300-yard passing games in a season (12), most consecutive 300-yard games (six) and most consecutive games with at least 35 pass attempts (19).
Week 16 vs. ATL
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 39 | 307 | 59.0 | 7.87 | 41 | 4 | 2 | 86.8 |
3. TOM BRADY
Quarterback | New England Patriots ... Next Game: 1/1 vs. BUF ... Last Poll: 3 
One player in NFL history has needed only 15 games to amass at least 4,800 yards and 35 TDs, all while averaging at least 8.5 yards per attempt. Brady is that player. Opening the window to 16 games draws Marino (1984) and Kurt Warner (2001) into this select circle. The point, basically, is that Brady is enjoying what would be an MVP-caliber season in just about any other year. Perhaps we take for granted his production.
Week 16 vs. MIA
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 46 | 304 | 58.7 | 6.61 | 42 | 1 | 0 | 49.2 |
4. CALVIN JOHNSON
Receiver | Detroit Lions ... Next Game: 1/1 at GB ... Last Poll: 4 
The Lions woke up just in time to make a playoff push, and Johnson played a leading role in that after a few nondescript performances. Johnson has 316 yards and three TDs over the Lions' last two games. His 6-yard scoring reception to beat Oakland was the NFL's most pivotal play in Week 15, based on how much it altered win probability (plus-39.4 percent, according to Alok Pattani of ESPN's analytics team). Johnson has career highs for receptions, yardage and TDs with one game remaining.
Week 16 vs. SD
| REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 102 | 25.5 | 46 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
5. MATTHEW STAFFORD
Quarterback | Detroit Lions ... Next Game: 1/1 at GB ... Last Poll: 8 
No Pro Bowl for Stafford? No problem here. Rodgers and Brees wipe out two of the three potential spots. The Lions had yet to fully emerge from their midseason dive when coaches and players were casting their votes. Stafford does rank well behind Rodgers, Brees and Tony Romo in Total QBR this season, but leading the Lions to their first playoff appearance since 1999 counts for plenty. Stafford's 36 TD passes nearly double his career total in 13 games predating this season.
Week 16 vs. SD
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 36 | 373 | 80.6 | 10.36 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 96.9 |
6. WES WELKER
Receiver | New England Patriots ... Next Game: 1/1 vs. BUF ... Last Poll: NR 
A 12-catch, 138-yard performance against the Dolphins, Welker's former team, pushed Welker's already towering stats even higher. Welker needs seven receptions to tie his single-season career high of 123. He and Cris Carter are the only players in league history with at least 116 receptions in two seasons. Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Marvin Harrison, Jerry Rice, Herman Moore and Jimmy Smith are the only other players with at least 116 catches in one season.
Week 16 vs. MIA
| REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 138 | 11.5 | 42 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 7 | 0 |
7. DARREN SPROLES
Running Back | New Orleans Saints ... Next Game: 1/1 vs. CAR ... Last Poll: NR 
The Saints' all-purpose running back makes his 2011 debut on the MVP Watch list. Sproles leads the Saints in rushing (563 yards). He ranks second in receptions (81). He averages 9.6 yards per punt return and has a 72-yard scoring return. He averages a healthy 27.2 yards per kickoff return and has a 92-yarder. Sproles has nine total TDs and has given the Saints a more-than-viable replacement for Reggie Bush.
Week 16 vs. ATL
| ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 67 | 13.4 | 36 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 13 | 1 |
8. ARIAN FOSTER
Running Back | Houston Texans ... Next Game: 1/1 vs. TEN ... Last Poll: 7 
The Texans' late-season slide hurt Foster's standing among second-tier candidates. He does have 267 yards rushing and two TDs during Houston's last two games, however. Foster leads the Texans in rushing and stands only one reception and 60 receiving yards behind team leader Owen Daniels in those categories. Injuries have wiped out the Texans at key positions, from quarterback to outside linebacker. Even their defensive coordinator, Wade Phillips, has required medical attention. Foster has persevered and helped carry them to their first playoff appearance.
Week 16 at IND
| ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 158 | 6.9 | 30 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 9 | 0 |
9. TONY ROMO
Quarterback | Dallas Cowboys ... Next Game: 1/1 at NYG ... Last Poll: 6 
Romo wasn't going to appear on the list this week after hardly playing in Week 16. There simply weren't superior candidates among players from winning teams. We might also point to how the Cowboys fared without Romo as evidence supporting his value to them and worthiness for consideration here. He has 18 TDs and two INTs from Week 9 to the present.
Week 16 vs. PHI
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0 | N/A |
10. MAURICE JONES-DREW
Running Back | Jacksonville Jaguars ... Next Game: 1/1 vs. IND ... Last Poll: NR 
Finding a 10th player for the list was tougher than finding No. 9. Appearing on this list with a losing record stands as a rarity, but as Paul Kuharsky of the AFC South blog pointed out, Jones-Drew is about to lead the league in rushing for a team with absolutely zero threat of a passing game. Seattle's Marshawn Lynch was another consideration in this spot after ending the 49ers' streaks of not allowing a 100-yard rusher (36 games) or a rushing TD (15 games).
Week 16 at TEN
| ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 103 | 4.3 | 21 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 14 | 0 |
US PresswireGreen Bay's Aaron Rodgers (right), New Orleans' Drew Brees (center) and New England's Tom Brady remain the focus of the MVP conversation.The Big Three haven't changed for weeks. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady have earned their spots at the top. The other seven spots are largely negotiable from week to week.
Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Terrell Suggs, Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker appeared last week. All five are sitting this one out for various reasons:
- Manning: Blame a 1-5 record over the Giants' last six games even though Manning remains supremely valuable to his team.
Rank 'Em: NFL MVP Candidates
Who tops your ballot for NFL MVP heading into Week 16? Consider the candidates and submit your rankings for NFL MVP honors. - Roethlisberger: A nasty ankle injury and the San Francisco 49ers' defense doomed Roethlisberger to a three-interception performance while raising questions about his status for the near future.
- Suggs: Great player, horrible defensive performance from Baltimore against San Diego.
- Gronkowski: How dare the Patriots target other players for a week. Gronkowski went without a touchdown after scoring 11 in his six previous games.
- Welker: Had four receptions for 41 yards, his second-lowest totals of the season.
Those five remain in the conversation outside The Conversation. In other words, none is going to seriously challenge for MVP honors while Rodgers, Brees and Brady are rewriting record books, but all five remain worthy of a mention.
The same was true for the five players new to the list from last week.
Good seeing you again, Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford. You, too, Tony Romo and Philip Rivers. There was also room for Justin Smith in the No. 10 spot after his 49ers held the Pittsburgh Steelers to three points Monday night. Smith is the best player on arguably the NFL's best defense, and one reason the 49ers have not allowed a rushing touchdown in 15 games or a 100-yard rusher in 36.
1. AARON RODGERS
Quarterback | Green Bay Packers ... Next Game: 12/25 vs. CHI ... Last Poll: 1 It'll take more than one defeat to knock Rodgers from his perch atop the list, but if the Packers stumble again and Brees/Brady keep on the pressure, there's a debate, at least. Rodgers continues to lead the NFL in yards per attempt (9.2). It's tough to argue with his 6.7 to 1 ratio of TDs to INTs. Rodgers has two more TD passes than Brett Favre ever threw in a season, and two games remain.
Week 15 at KC
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 35 | 235 | 48.6 | 6.71 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 44.5 |
2. DREW BREES
Quarterback | New Orleans Saints ... Next Game: 12/26 vs. ATL ... Last Poll: 2 The NFL is apparently a video game for Brees. He has thrown 16 TD passes without an INT since the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Ronde Barber picked him off during the third quarter of a Nov. 6 game. Brees is dangerous all the time, but especially on play-action fakes. From ESPN Stats & Information: "Brees has attempted the most passes with a play-action fake this season and has the highest completion percentage on such attempts (70.4 percent). In Week 10 against the Falcons, Brees completed 17 of 19 passes for 212 yards and two TDs when using play action."
Week 15 at MIN
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 40 | 412 | 80.0 | 10.30 | 47 | 5 | 0 | 97.7 |
3. TOM BRADY
Quarterback | New England Patriots ... Next Game: 12/24 vs. MIA ... Last Poll: 3 With Rodgers and Brees grabbing attention, Brady has somewhat quietly joined Favre as the only players in NFL history with 35-plus TD passes in three separate seasons. Dan Marino, Kurt Warner and Steve Young each had two such seasons, according to the NFL. The standard Brady set with 50 TD passes in 2007 might be creating abnormally high expectations for Brady. No matter what he does, he probably did it better that year.
Week 15 at DEN
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 34 | 320 | 67.6 | 9.41 | 46 | 2 | 0 | 81.7 |
4. CALVIN JOHNSON
Receiver | Detroit Lions ... Next Game: 12/24 vs. SD ... Last Poll: NR Johnson's 214-yard total against Oakland in Week 15 gave him nearly as many yards in one game as he had managed in the Lions' previous four (236). This was his first game in triple digits for yardage since the Lions' Week 9 bye ended a streak of four such games and six with at least 96 yards. The Lions needed clutch play from Johnson against the Raiders and got it. The overall numbers -- 81 catches for 1,335 yards and 14 TDs -- are impressive.
Week 15 at OAK
| REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 214 | 23.8 | 51 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
5. MATT RYAN
Quarterback | Atlanta Falcons ... Next Game: 12/26 at NO ... Last Poll: 10 
This feels a little high for Ryan, but another strong game further improved the Falcons' playoff positioning. Ryan has 12 TDs against two INTs over his past five games. The Falcons have gone 4-1 during that time. How Ryan plays against Brees and the Saints will determine whether he remains this high on the list, and possibly whether he remains on the list at all.
Week 15 vs. JAC
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 26 | 224 | 73.1 | 8.62 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 88.4 |
6. TONY ROMO
Quarterback | Dallas Cowboys ... Next Game: 12/24 vs. PHI ... Last Poll: NR Romo returns to the list after the Cowboys snapped a two-game losing streak. He has gone 6-3 as a starter with 21 TDs and two INTs since Dallas opened the season with a 2-3 record. Finishing games against Philadelphia (home) and the New York Giants (road) set up a dramatic finish for Romo and the Cowboys. That might not be a good thing for either. The Cowboys have won their final two regular-season games just once in the past decade (2009).
Week 15 at TB
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 30 | 249 | 76.7 | 8.30 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 97.5 |
7. ARIAN FOSTER
Running Back | Houston Texans ... Next Game: 12/22 at IND ... Last Poll: 7 The Texans' ability to persevere through significant injuries has contributed to Foster's place on the list, even though other backs, notably LeSean McCoy, have put up better numbers for losing teams. I nearly included McCoy anyway. The Texans did have their seven-game winning streak snapped this past week. Foster still managed 109 yards on 16 carries.
Week 15 vs. CAR
| ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 109 | 6.8 | 22 | 1 | 5 | 58 | 11.6 | 25 | 0 |
8. MATTHEW STAFFORD
Quarterback | Detroit Lions ... Next Game: 12/24 vs. SD ... Last Poll: NR Stafford has 33 TD passes in 14 games after throwing 19 in 13 previous games as a professional. He has six TDs without a pick during a two-game winning streak that has stabilized the Lions' season following a rough stretch. Finishing games against San Diego (home) and Green Bay (road) will likely reveal whether Stafford belongs in the MVP conversation.
Week 15 AT OAK
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 52 | 391 | 55.8 | 7.52 | 51 | 4 | 0 | 76.4 |
9. PHILIP RIVERS
Quarterback | San Diego Chargers ... Next Game: 12/24 at DET ... Last Poll: NR 
The body of work has not been there consistently enough for Rivers or the Chargers. Rivers is coming on strong late, however. He has become the third quarterback in NFL history to reach 4,000 yards in four consecutive seasons. The Chargers have outscored opponents 109-38 during their three-game winning streak. Rivers has seven TDs without a pick during that stretch.
Week 15 vs. BAL
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 23 | 270 | 73.9 | 11.74 | 58 | 1 | 0 | 97.5 |
10. JUSTIN SMITH
Defensive End | San Francisco ... Next Game: 12/24 at SEA ... Last Poll: NR 
Those loosely familiar with the 49ers might wonder whether I've singled out the wrong Smith here. The 49ers have four of them, after all, and their rookie pass-rusher, Aldon Smith, is coming off a 2.5-sack game on Monday night. Justin Smith remains the best player on arguably the NFL's best defense, however. He has at least six sacks in four consecutive seasons while doing all of the dirty work associated with life in the NFL as a 3-4 defensive end.
Week 15 vs. PIT
| TACK | SOLO | AST | SACK | FF | INT | YDS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Bringing pressure? Some QBs simply shrug
Aaron Rodgers comes to mind. The Green Bay Packers' quarterback leads the NFL in Total QBR when opponents send four or fewer pass-rushers, and also when they send five or more, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Alex Smith's stronger production against five or more pass-rushers has stood out all season.
- Smith vs. four or fewer rushers: six touchdowns, four interceptions and 16 sacks in 222 dropbacks, with a 47.7 QBR (50 is average) and an 84.7 NFL passer rating.
- Smith vs. five or more: seven touchdowns, one interception and 14 sacks in 106 dropbacks, with a 57.2 QBR and 105.9 NFL rating.
Multiple factors can produce such a disparity. A quick-thinking quarterback armed with a strong game plan and a solid protection scheme can have an advantage against added pressure. Quarterbacks working behind weaker offensive lines could suffer against standard pressure if opponents got to them without sacrificing coverage. Having additional players in coverage affords defenses with additional combinations in coverage, another consideration.
The chart immediately below ranks quarterbacks by the largest QBR disparity when facing five or more pass-rushers vs. four or fewer. Smith and Arizona's Kevin Kolb are among 11 quarterbacks with higher QBR scores against five or more rushers. They have done better against pressure, in theory. Ranking higher on the list isn't necessarily desirable; like Rodgers, a top quarterback should produce in both areas.
Fifty is an average score, with 100 as the limit.
QBR differential is an imperfect measure because point differentials nearer the margins (zero and 100) carry more significance than they do nearer the middle of the range. But the disparities are still helpful in showing how quarterbacks perform, in general, across these situations.
Rex Grossman, who heads the first chart, completed 9 of 12 passes for 117 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions and one sack when the Seahawks sent five or more rushers against him Sunday. He completed 17 of 23 passes for 197 yards with one touchdown, two interceptions and no sacks against standard pressure.
The final chart shows the 22 qualifying quarterbacks with better QBR numbers when facing four or fewer pass-rushers, again ranked by percentage difference.
Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson and St. Louis' Sam Bradford show up on this list. There is Rodgers, down at the bottom, nearly equally strong in each situation.
Ezra Shaw/Getty ImagesPatrick Willis debuts on the MVP Watch list after another standout performance in Week 11.Trent Baalke, the 49ers' general manager, and Jed York, their team president, could qualify for consideration as top executives for 2011.
Rank 'Em: NFL MVP Candidates
Who tops your ballot for NFL MVP heading into Week 12? Consider the candidates and submit your rankings for NFL MVP honors.
"He’s the five-tool linebacker," Harbaugh said. "Plays downhill, I think, better than any linebacker in football, but he can also cover. ... He can run sideline to sideline. He can run plays down from the backside. He’s got the speed to shoot a gap and make a play from behind and you see that many times. Excellent blitzer."
Year of the Quarterback
ESPN has dedicated 2011 to examining one of the most crucial positions in all of sports -- the quarterback.
Year of the QB »
Running back Frank Gore has frequented the MVP Watch list recently, peaking at No. 2 after a string of five consecutive games with at least 107 yards rushing. A six-carry, zero-yard performance against the New York Giants in arguably the 49ers' most impressive victory undercut his candidacy. His overall stats aren't in line with those for MVP running backs.
Quarterback Alex Smith deserves credit for avoiding mistakes and chipping away at the negative connotations surrounding the term "game manager," but 14 quarterbacks have more touchdown passes than Smith this season. Three have at least twice as many. Smith has been valuable to the 49ers, no question, but not that valuable.
1. AARON RODGERS
Quarterback | Green Bay Packers ... Next Game: 11/24 at DET ... Last Poll: 1 The most impressive statistical marker for Rodgers, in my view, continues to be yards per attempt. His 9.6-yard average in this category stands 1.2 yards above his nearest challenger, Matt Schaub. And with a 72.3 completion percentage for an offense that doesn't lean heavily on the ground game, coupled with a 31-4 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions, Rodgers remains the runaway favorite for MVP honors. His lowest single-game NFL passer rating of the season was 111.4 against Chicago. When Peyton Manning won MVP honors following the 2003 season, he posted ratings below 111.4 in 12 of 16 games.
Week 11 vs. MIN
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 34 | 299 | 67.6 | 8.79 | 40 | 3 | 1 | 82.9 |
2. DREW BREES
Quarterback | New Orleans Saints ... Next Game: 11/28 vs. NYG ... Last Poll: 2 Three of the top five players in MVP Watch this week are coming off bye weeks. Brees is one of them. The Saints play four of their final six games at home. One of their two remaining road games is at Minnesota. That means Brees will play five of his final six regular-season games indoors. He won't have to worry about wintry weather conditions, putting him in position to finish the season strong. And with Atlanta only one game back in the NFC South, the Saints likely won't be coasting to the finish line, either.
Week 10 at ATL
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 43 | 322 | 69.8 | 7.49 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 91.7 |
3. BEN ROETHLISBERGER
Quarterback | Pittsburgh Steelers ... Next Game: 11/27 at KC ... Last Poll: 3 
Not all broken thumbs are the same. The one Roethlisberger suffered wasn't as serious as the one Jay Cutler suffered. That means Roethlisberger should remain in the lineup. The Steelers play only two teams with winning records over the course of their final six games. One of those games, against Cincinnati in Week 13, is at home. The other, at San Francisco on Monday night in Week 15, provides a national stage for Roethlisberger to measure himself against one of the NFL's top defenses. One concern: Roethlisbeger has taken five sacks in two of the Steelers' last three games.
Week 10 at CIN
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 33 | 245 | 63.6 | 7.42 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 70.5 |
4. TOM BRADY
Quarterback | New England Patriots ... Next Game: 11/27 at PHI ... Last Poll: 4 Nothing was going right for Brady and the Patriots' passing game during the first half of their Monday night game against Kansas City. Brady lost a fumble for the second time in three games. He has fumbled once in four consecutive games after suffering none in the first six games. Brady nonetheless has nine touchdowns with only two interceptions over that four-game stretch. None of the Patriots' remaining opponents has a winning record, so New England should post double-digit victories for a ninth-consecutive season.
Week 11 vs. KC
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 27 | 234 | 55.6 | 8.67 | 52 | 2 | 0 | 27.0 |
5. ARIAN FOSTER
Running Back | Houston Texans ... Next Game: 11/27 at JAC ... Last Poll: 5 Foster gets a chance to showcase his value while the Texans head into their final six games without the injured Schaub. The team has proven to be strong on defense. That could allow the Texans to lean more heavily on the ground game as they try to grind out victories, protecting Matt Leinart. At his current per-game pace, Foster would finish the season with 1,295 yards rushing and 779 yards receiving, especially strong production given that Foster missed two of the Texans' first three games to injury.
Week 10 at TB
| ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 84 | 4.9 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 102 | 25.5 | 78 | 1 |
6. TONY ROMO
Quarterback | Dallas Cowboys ... Next Game: 11/24 vs. MIA ... Last Poll: 9 Romo was coming off a three-pick game against Detroit when the Cowboys went into their Week 5 bye. He has 12 touchdowns and only two interceptions in six subsequent games, including an 8-0 ratio during the Cowboys' current three-game winning streak. Romo hasn't fumbled since Week 3 and recently moved past Brady into third place behind Rodgers and Brees in Total QBR for the season. That is impressive company.
Week 11 at WAS
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 37 | 292 | 62.2 | 7.89 | 59 | 3 | 0 | 82.9 |
7. MATTHEW STAFFORD
Quarterback | Detroit Lions ... Next Game: 11/24 vs. GB ... Last Poll: NR Five touchdown passes against Carolina revived Stafford's candidacy following a brutal performance in the wind at Chicago. A strong performance in a victory against Green Bay on Thanksgiving would send Stafford shooting up the list. There would be no shame in losing to the Packers, of course, but the stakes would rise for Stafford were Detroit to fall short. The Lions face a trip to New Orleans the following week.
Week 11 vs. CAR
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 36 | 335 | 77.8 | 9.31 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 83.9 |
8. MATT FORTE
Running Back | Chicago Bears ... Next Game: 11/27 at OAK ... Last Poll: 6 
Forte and Foster are facing similar situations over the final six games. Both running backs have demonstrated strong value to their teams. Both now must continue to do so after losing their starting quarterbacks. Forte has averaged 3.6 and 2.9 yards per carry in his last two games after averaging between 5.1 and 8.2 over his previous five. The Bears have kept winning, anyway. Vulnerable run defenses await on the schedule. Defenses will be loading up to stop Forte, more than usual.
Week 11 vs. SD
| ATT | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD | REC | YDS | AVG | LNG | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 57 | 2.9 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 17 | 0 |
9. PATRICK WILLIS
Linebacker | San Francisco 49ers ... Next Game: 11/24 at BAL ... Last Poll: NR 
Willis picked off a pass against Arizona last week. He collected a sack against the Giants a week earlier. The NFL credits Willis with 11 passes defended, a career single-season high after only 10 games. The increased production in that area reflects the additional time Willis has spent in coverage this season. He has played at an elite level in all areas, combining with defensive end Justin Smith to lead one of the NFL's best defenses.
Week 11 vs. ARI
| TACK | SOLO | AST | SACK | FF | INT | YDS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 3 |
10. ELI MANNING
Quarterback | New York Giants ... Next Game: 11/28 at NO ... Last Poll: 8 
Manning remains the primary reason the Giants have a winning record despite serious problems on their line and elsewhere on the roster. The team continues to run its offense through Manning, but he'll need a bounce-back week to remain on the list. The Giants, though weary of constant questions about their inability to finish seasons strong, have nonetheless done little to change perceptions. Manning has four picks in his last three games after throwing five in his first seven.
Week 11 vs. PHI
| CMP | ATT | YDS | CMP% | YPA | LNG | TD | INT | QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 35 | 264 | 51.4 | 7.54 | 47 | 1 | 1 | 23.0 |
Dilfer would know: 49ers like 2000 Ravens?
Dilfer was the "game manager" at quarterback for that Ravens team. He finds quite a few similarities and a few important differences. Dilfer also explains how both teams played to their strengths even when it meant sacrificing big plays on offense.
My initial reaction to the Ravens-49ers premise: Baltimore was better on defense. Those Ravens also struggled to find their identity early in the season, winning only five of their first nine games before closing the regular season with seven consecutive victories. The current 49ers are who they thought they were -- a team that could win with defense, special teams, the running game and efficient quarterback play.
That Baltimore team faced relatively weak quarterbacks at a time when defenses could get away with more menacing play. Former Ravens coach Brian Billick addressed this during an NFL.com column addressing the Ravens-49ers comparisons.
"When we won our championship, there was a void of great quarterback play in the league," Billick wrote. "Running the ball well, and not turning it over, was enough to augment our great defense. At the time, the Elways, Marinos, Montanas and Aikmans of the world were transitioning out of the game, and we were a few years away from the emergence of the great quarterbacks of today."
Those Ravens lost games against Jay Fiedler, Brad Johnson and Kordell Stewart. They went 1-1 against Steve McNair and 2-0 against Mark Brunell. They beat Vinny Testaverde and a young Jake Plummer. They also collected victories against an over-the-hill Troy Aikman, plus Kent Graham, Tim Couch, Scott Mitchell, Akili Smith, Doug Pederson and Ryan Leaf.
The current 49ers have gone 8-1 against a mix of opposing quarterbacks. They lost in overtime to Tony Romo, but also defeated Eli Manning and Matthew Stafford when those quarterbacks were at their best. They beat Michael Vick and Josh Freeman, who have subsequently struggled. They beat Andy Dalton, who appears promising, and also collected victories against Tarvaris Jackson, Colt McCoy and John Beck.
How these 49ers finish will ultimately determine whether the comparison holds up. My favorite line from Dilfer's column: "When I was asked this week if the San Francisco 49ers of 2011 reminded me of that 2000 Ravens team, I wasn't offended. I get it: great defense, good coaching, quarterback you hope doesn't ruin it."
Smith is playing better than that, and Dilfer says so. But that line captures the feeling quite a few 49ers fans had early in the season, if not as much lately.
Nicks' status and 49ers-Giants deep passes
Nicks seemed taller when I stood next to him following a game last season. He was wearing cleats and walking on concrete outside the Giants' locker room, giving him a little extra stature. But he also appeared to have greater strength than I had anticipated. He appeared formidable and obviously plays that way.
The Giants do not expect to have injured running back Ahmad Bradshaw, but Nicks is the more important player in this matchup, I think. The 49ers' run defense has held its past 30 opponents without a 100-yard rusher. The Giants likely weren't going to beat San Francisco with their running game, with or without Bradshaw. But if Nicks is functioning at a high level, the Giants will have additional chances to strike downfield.
The 49ers have gotten better-than-expected play from their cornerbacks this season. Their front seven has applied pressure without blitzing. But Giants quarterback Eli Manning has shown a good feel for the pocket. If he can sidestep pressure to buy time, he's a threat on vertical passes. Nicks averages 15.1 yards per reception.
Manning ranks second only to Cam Newton in completed passes when the ball traveled more than 20 yards past the line of scrimmage before it was caught. He has completed 20 of 45 such passes for 690 yards with five touchdowns, two interceptions and a 109.7 NFL passer rating, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
By the way, the 49ers' Alex Smith leads the NFL in passer rating on throws traveling more than 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. He has completed 7 of 16 such attempts for 227 yards with two touchdowns, no interceptions and a 130.2 NFL passer rating, just ahead of the 130.0 for Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has the more impressive numbers: 15 of 23 for 690 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception.
Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Manning and Newton round out the top eight players in passer rating on these deep passes. Sam Bradford ranks 23rd at 67.4. Kevin Kolb is 26th at 58.1. Tarvaris Jackson is 27th at 50.0. Those NFC West quarterbacks have good company, however. Tom Brady ranks 25th (62.0) and Matt Hasselbeck ranks 32nd (28.8).
Passer rating and Total QBR are not ideal measures for quarterback play on these long throws.
Passer rating does not differentiate between yards per attempt above 12.5. As a result, it sees Smith's 14.2 yards per attempt the same as Rodgers' 30.0 yards per attempt. Meanwhile, QBR takes into account things that prevent pass attempts, namely sacks and penalties. It's impossible to know whether a sacked quarterback was planning to throw the ball 20-plus yards down the field, in this case.
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ABOUT THIS BLOG
Mike Sando
Sando joined ESPN.com in 2007 after nine seasons covering the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma (Wash.) News Tribune. He lives in the Seattle-Tacoma area with his wife and two sons.
