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Roughly 90 percent of currently signed NFL halfbacks are not yet 28 years old.

I'm counting one, Fred Jackson, older than 30. (He is 31.) Willis McGahee and Michael Turner are 30. The rest are younger.

Teams will add a few older backs as the draft and training camps approach, but the NFL is a young man's game, particularly at halfback (as opposed to fullback).

The San Francisco 49ers' agreement with Brandon Jacobs, 29, gives the NFC West four of the 11 oldest halfbacks in the NFL. Leon Washington is also 29. Frank Gore and Steven Jackson turn 29 this year.

I touched on that issue, the Arizona Cardinals' young backs and the 49ers' potential thinking on Jacobs -- all in the video above.

The recently re-signed Marshawn Lynch improved his financial outlook dramatically with a strong finish to the 2011 regular season.

Lynch led the NFL in rushing yardage over the final nine weeks. He was at his best even though the Seahawks kept losing offensive linemen. The team used three starting combinations over the final nine weeks.

Backup guard Paul McQuistan was the left tackle when Lynch ended the San Francisco 49ers' 36-game streak without allowing a 100-yard rusher. Seattle played its final four games with McQuistan at left tackle and Lemuel Jeanpierre at right guard. Breno Giacomini played well enough in relief at right tackle to earn a new contract and the inside track on starting in that spot for 2012.

The power and fury Lynch showed through his running style gave the Seahawks' offense a needed edge. Throw in his late-season production and Lynch went from potential marginal free agent to a player Seattle felt good about securing for more than one season.

I've broken out Lynch's production by down over the final nine weeks. That information is in the first chart below.

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The second chart shows how players from the first chart fared in yards per carry by down. Lynch had consistent averages and yardage totals across first and second down.

Thanks to Hank Gargiulo of ESPN Stats & Information for helping with the numbers.

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SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- Greg Roman, the San Francisco 49ers' offensive coordinator, naturally wasn't going to disrespect an opponent heading into a playoff game.

Sure, the New Orleans Saints' opponents have averaged 5.0 yards per rushing attempt this season, the 29th-worst figure in the NFL, but there was an explanation.

"Those guys do a really good job against the run; I think statistics are misleading," Roman said Wednesday. "A lot of people have popped runs on them down by 30. What does that do? It inflates the stats. When they had to run, I didn't see those 30-yard runs."

Roman was correct in a sense. Indianapolis did break runs covering 42 and 24 yards when trailing the Saints by at least 30 points. Those runs were pretty much meaningless.

But the Saints' opponents also broke runs covering 42, 41, 39, 34 and 29 yards when the scoring margin was eight or fewer points either way, what we would consider to be one-score differentials. Opponents had 16 runs of 15 yards or longer in these situations.

The 49ers, by comparison, gave up no runs longer than 34 yards and only four longer than 18 yards. They were leading by 23 when Arizona broke a 34-yarder in Week 11. They were up by 13 when the Rams broke a 27-yarder in Week 17. The trailed Philadelphia by seven and led Pittsburgh by six when those teams broke runs for 24 and 21 yards, respectively.

The first chart shows all runs against the Saints by score differential. The second chart shows each run against the Saints covering 15-plus yards. There were 27 of them. The Saints led by six points on average at the time of those runs. The 49ers gave up 10 such runs by comparison. They led by three points on average during those runs.

Thanks to Hank Gargiulo of ESPN Stats & Information for his assistance.
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Four of the 13 players with at least 1,000 yards rushing this season call the NFC West home.

All four run with power.

Two in particular -- Arizona's Beanie Wells and Seattle's Marshawn Lynch -- have racked up yardage after contact. Both rank among the NFL's top four in total yards after contact. And among those players with at least 1,000 yards, Wells and Lynch rank high in percentage of yards gained after contact (see chart, courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information).

Week 17 gives us one last chance to see Wells, Lynch and St. Louis' Steven Jackson in action this season. Along with San Francisco's Frank Gore, they give the NFC West more 1,000-yard rushers than any division. The AFC North, AFC South and AFC West have two apiece. The AFC East, NFC East and NFC South have one apiece. The NFC North has none after injuries sidelined Matt Forte (997 yards) and Adrian Peterson (970).

Six other backs are within 150 yards of 1,000 this season: Shonn Greene (999), Chris Johnson (986), Fred Jackson (934), Michael Bush (911), DeMarco Murray (897) and Rashard Mendenhall (890). Murray is sidelined by injury.
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Not that Frank Gore's candidacy for MVP needs defending, but just in case: The San Francisco 49ers' running back has gained 28.6 percent of his rushing yards against eight or more defenders in the box.

That's the highest percentage among all players with at least 400 yards rushing this season, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

I put together the chart below after Lotharun2 asked in the comments section of an earlier item where Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy ranked in yards against these stacked defenses.

McCoy has 17 carries for 72 yards against eight or more defenders in the box. That works out to a healthy 4.2-yard average. But with a dynamic quarterback and playmakers on the perimeter, the Eagles make it tougher for defenses to load up against the run. In my view, that explains why McCoy has gained a relatively low percentage of his runs against eight or more in the box.

The 49ers prefer heavier personnel groupings featuring two tight ends. They have enough speed at tight end to enjoy flexibility from these groupings, but the team has not consistently put an emphasis on downfield strikes.

Thoughts on the Seattle Seahawks' 30-28 home defeat against the Atlanta Falcons:

What it means: The Seahawks fell to 1-3 overall and 1-1 at home, putting them in a rough spot heading into a road game against the New York Giants. But their offense made significant strides, giving the team hope. Seattle can build upon this performance despite the disappointing outcome. Tarvaris Jackson played his best game of the season, at least temporarily validating coach Pete Carroll's decision to stick with him after a mostly unproductive start to the season.

What I liked: Seattle showed greater potential on offense. Sidney Rice's 52-yard scoring reception from Jackson served notice, again, that the Seahawks' big-ticket addition in free agency is a difference maker in the passing game. Jackson made an effort to get Mike Williams involved. Williams caught a touchdown pass before leaving the game with a head injury. Jackson also made a clutch scramble for a first down in Falcons territory when the Seahawks needed points in the fourth quarter. Marshawn Lynch, contained most of the day, broke free for an 11-yard scoring run as the Seahawks pulled within 27-21 late in the third quarter. Jackson's mobility helped buy time on a late scoring pass to Ben Obomanu as the Seahawks rallied to within 30-28. Also, receiver Doug Baldwin bounced back from a huge hit to make a 30-yard reception. He took another big hit, this one helmet to helmet, making a key reception in the fourth quarter. There was no flag. Baldwin returned to the game and kept making plays. He's been a huge find for Seattle.

What I didn't like: The Seahawks had trouble mounting much of a pass rush even though the Falcons had allowed 13 sacks through three games, the same total Atlanta had allowed heading into Week 10 last season. Ryan's ability to operate without pressure put the Falcons in good position. Allowing two first-half rushing touchdowns to Michael Turner hurt even though Turner wasn't breaking off long runs as a general rule. The Seahawks are sometimes overdependent on Chris Clemons for sacks. A holding penalty against cornerback Brandon Browner helped the Falcons sustain a fourth-quarter drive while Atlanta was protecting a 30-28 lead.

Key play: The Falcons' ability to beat pressure with a third-down dump pass while leading 27-21 early in the fourth quarter moved them into position for a field goal that gave them a 9-point lead.

What's next: The Seahawks visit the New York Giants in Week 5 before having a bye in Week 6.

Kevin Kolb and the Arizona Cardinals must be doing something right.

They lead the NFL in yards per pass attempt on first down (11.0), just ahead of the New England Patriots (10.9) and the unbeaten Buffalo Bills (10.8).

They rank among the top 10 in the same category on third down (7.8).

Kolb has hurt teams with the deep ball, completing 4 of 7 attempts for 158 yards on passes thrown more than 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. His 22.6-yard average per attempt on these throws ranks among the NFL's top five, just ahead of Drew Brees' 21.9 average.

Running back Beanie Wells, though sidelined against Seattle in Week 3, ranks first with 3.3 yards per carry gained after contact, just ahead of Adrian Peterson (3.2), Ricky Williams (3.0), Peyton Hillis (2.9) and Michael Turner (2.8).

But after a tough 13-10 defeat at Seattle in which Kolb and the offense faltered too frequently, the Cardinals have little to show for some of their statistical accomplishments. They are 1-2 heading into their Week 4 game against the New York Giants.

What does it all mean? Where do the Cardinals stand? What should we make of Kolb as the team's new quarterback? Matt Williamson of Scouts Inc. provided the following thoughts on Arizona when I reached out to him this week:

• On the Cardinals overall: "Being improved at the quarterback position is going to go a long way. They still have noticeable warts, however. Their defense is a real problem. They are one of these teams like [the] Rams' offense where the lockout did them no favors. They look lost in coverage. Their pass rush isn’t great to begin with. Those things could come around, but they need more bodies to compete in those areas, too. The offense is fine. The line is playing better than I expected them to, especially on the interior. Not that Beanie Wells is great, but they missed him. You can’t put everyone in the world on Larry Fitzgerald if he is there. In the end, they are a six-win type of team with a chance to be better against their schedule."
• On Kolb as the answer: "It’s too early to really say this is a good move or a bad move. He has played three games and hasn’t been with the team long. He has done some good things. He is an average physical specimen by NFL standards. He has no wonderful traits, but he is not bad in any area, either. When times are good and he has a clean pocket, the play goes to script, he delivers the football well. When things break down or he has a lot of bodies around him, he struggles. He’ll probably get better. He hasn’t played a ton of snaps."
• On the Kolb trade itself: "In the end, you get better at the quarterback position. Giving up Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie wasn’t that big a deal for me. Ray Horton is the new defensive coordinator. He wants to run a Steelers-type defense, and I can’t think of another corner in the league who is less Steeler-like than Rodgers-Cromartie. They want guys to play off coverage, come up and hit you, play the run. He doesn’t do that at all. It was not that big a loss to your team. People look at it on paper and say it was too much to give up. I thought his name value was a lot more than his real value to Arizona."

I've spoken with Williamson this week regarding each NFC West team and will continue to share his thoughts. He's on Twitter at @WilliamsonNFL if you'd like to reach him directly.

The Arizona Cardinals knew they were going to need a breakthrough season from Beanie Wells after trading Tim Hightower and placing Ryan Williams on injured reserve.

Wells, the Cardinals' first-round choice in 2009, has delivered through two games as the team's starting running back. Wells has 183 yards, two touchdowns and a 5.7-yard average. It's early to start making projections, but at his current pace, Wells would finish the season with 1,464 yards rushing and 16 touchdowns.

Doug Clawson of ESPN Stats & Information charts NFC West games and noticed that Wells has become a stronger inside runner.

According to Clawson, Wells has averaged 6.9 yards per carry on 14 rushes up the middle. He'll be facing a Seattle Seahawks defense in Week 3 that has allowed only 2.5 yards per carry up the middle, fourth-best in the NFL. Overall, Wells is averaging 3.1 yards after contact on each carry, second to the Atlanta Falcons' Michael Turner among players with at least 15 carries.

That is another indication Wells is running with power. Against Washington in Week 2, he outran a defensive back to the edge and effectively warded off defenders with a stiff-arm.

Update: Tigre1629 noted in the comments that Wells had gained some yardage up the middle on draws, skewing the averages. I checked with Clawson on this one. Wells has two carries for 34 yards up the middle on draw plays. He has 12 carries for 63 yards up the middle on non-draws. So, if we wanted to filter out draws, we would note that Wells has averaged 5.3 yards up the middle on non-draws and 17.0 yards up the middle on draws, for a 6.9-yard average overall on these runs. Either way, Wells' production up the middle is vastly improved. His 2010 average would also include any draw plays.

The trade agreement that would send Reggie Bush to the Miami Dolphins affirms once again the St. Louis Rams' apparent preference for lower-profile transactions in free agency.

Bush would have fit nicely, at least in theory, as a third-down back and change of pace for Rams starter Steven Jackson.

Adding Bush also would have qualified as a flashy move. St. Louis does not appear preoccupied with flashy moves at the moment.

The Rams have holes in their roster, but generally not at key positions. They're set with young starters or future starters at quarterback, offensive tackle, defensive end, middle linebacker and cornerback. They have numbers at wide receiver, but could still use an elite target at the position. They were mentioned as a possible suitor for Sidney Rice, who signed with Seattle, but how serious were the Rams? They could also use a right guard, backup running back and outside linebackers.

The team's reported preference for Jason Snelling and Jerome Harrison over Bush or Darren Sproles also shows the Rams want their backup running back to bring more to the table than specialized skills suited for a limited role. Snelling carried 24 times for 129 yards against Arizona last season, carrying the load effectively for Atlanta after the Falcons lost Michael Turner to injury. Snelling has three career games with at least 24 carries. Harrison has four career games with at least 29 attempts. Bush has never carried more than 21 times in a game.

Snelling or Harrison would provide insurance should an injury sideline Jackson for entire games. Bush would have given the Rams a player to supplement Jackson situationally.

Brock Huard of 710ESPN Seattle outlines five suggested moves for the Seahawks in free agency. Huard: "Out-flank the defense with a 'Z' wide receiver (flanker) that can threaten and scare a defensive coordinator. I believe when healthy Sidney Rice is that guy, and he knows this system well. His hip is paramount to the negotiation, but if he can get back to the 2009 form he immediately makes Marshawn Lynch and Mike Williams better. ... Think Atlanta's Roddy White for Michael Turner and Matt Ryan, or Dwayne Bowe in Kansas City for Jamaal Charles and Matt Cassel. An elite wide receiver tilts the field his way, and can take some pressure off not just his wide receiver counterparts, but an offensive line and run game that should see less bodies hovering around the line of scrimmage." Rice's hip injury is a key variable, but his connections to the Seahawks' new offensive coordinator, Darrell Bevell, give Seattle insight most teams would not have.

Also from Huard, with Mike Salk: Should the Seahawks replace veteran middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu? They need to line up options, for sure. Tatupu has worn down physically in recent seasons and is coming off surgeries on both knees.

Clare Farnsworth of seahawks.com says former linebacker Michael Jackson withdrew from the game completely upon leaving the NFL more than two decades ago. Jackson spent one seasons as a broadcaster, but his heart wasn't in it. Jackson: "I thought I still wanted to be in the game, but I found that I couldn’t really broadcast very well because I wouldn’t study, because I didn’t want to watch football. And if I didn’t want to watch football, what the hell am I doing broadcasting football? It didn’t make any sense. That’s where I find myself now. I’m just totally removed. I don’t know anything that’s going on. I don’t know any of the players."

Dave Boling of the Tacoma News Tribune expects the Seahawks to be active when the lockout concludes. Boling: "It seems that this is a time when returning players have greater value because there is so little time to acclimate newcomers. The top two draft picks, for instance, are expected to come in and be starters on the offensive line when the exhibition season starts Aug. 11 -– little more than three weeks from now. One thing working in the Seahawks’ favor is that the constant turnover of the past year has them accustomed to making changes on the fly and pulling a quick trigger on personnel deals."

Bill Coats of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch checks in with Rams rookie defensive end Robert Quinn, who is eager to collect his first NFL sack. Coats: "Because of the lockout, there were no organized team activities or minicamps -- valuable introductory sessions for first-year players -- in the spring. Quinn, who hasn't been at Rams Park since meeting with the media on April 29, has been working out at the North Carolina facilities with former Tar Heels teammate Ryan Taylor, a tight end who was a seventh-round selection by Green Bay."

Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the post-lockout frenzy will challenge the Rams. Miklasz: "It will be interesting to see how well the Rams deal with this, and how much success they'll have in taking care of business. This is a test for the organization."

Roger Hensley of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch asks colleagues, including Rams beat reporter Jim Thomas, what position the team will address first once the lockout ends. Thomas: "Even in the normal feeding frenzy at the start of a normal free agency period, teams multi-task and work on securing two or three positions at once. That will be especially true this year once the lockout ends. Free agency will be like an ultra-fast version of speed dating. Even so, the first calls made by the Rams could involve running back and defensive tackle."

Matt Maiocco of CSNBayArea.com takes a big-picture look at the 49ers this offseason. Maiocco on rookie Aldon Smith: "History suggests that good pass-rushers can make quick transitions to the NFL. The 49ers expect Smith to become a dominant pass-rusher early in his career, as he is set to replace pending free agent Manny Lawson. The 49ers have not had a year-in, year-out pass-rush presence since Charles Haley."

Also from Maiocco: Takeo Spikes thinks limitations on training camps will extend NFL careers considerably.

Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee passes along thoughts from Alex Smith and Joe Staley regarding those proposed training camp limitations. Staley: "As a player, two-a-days are really hard. Part of you wants to not have those full-padded, full-contact two-a-days. Some part of you also wants to have them because you get a lot of work in. They are beneficial."

Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News updates the 49ers' stadium situation, specifically efforts to secure a loan. Kawakami: "A league source confirmed to the Bay Area News Group on Tuesday that the 49ers’ stadium situation is one of three accounted for in the new CBA, which could become official by the end of this week."

Daniel Brown of the San Jose Mercury News says Forrest Blue, the 49ers' former Pro Bowl center, has died at the age 65. Brown: "Blue helped Dick Nolan’s teams win three consecutive NFC West titles starting in 1970. His lone touchdown came when he scooped up a fumble and ran it 25 yards against the New England Patriots in 1971. Blue spent his final four NFL seasons with the Baltimore Colts. He retired after the 1978 season because of a degenerative disc."

Eric Branch of the San Francisco Chronicle says Blue suffered from dementia for years. Branch: "Brittney Blue said her father's brain will be sent to Boston University where researchers are studying chronic traumatic encephalopathy, a progressive degenerative disease linked to those who have sustained repeated head trauma. CTE is tied to memory loss, depression and dementia, and has been found in the brains of more than 20 former NFL players, including Bears safety Dave Duerson, 50, who committed suicide in February."

Vittorio Tafur of the San Francisco Chronicle says the 49ers and Raiders are considering working on a shared stadium. Team president Jed York: "We've put our teams together," 49ers chief executive Jed York said late Monday at an event for NFL fans in Los Angeles. "It doesn't mean we're going to find the right deal that fits for both teams, but we're certainly going to get a look at those options."

Also from Branch: York is the latest 49ers executive to say the team will not be particularly active in free agency.

Kent Somers of the Arizona Republic offers pros and cons associated with a possible trade sending Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to Philadelphia for Kevin Kolb. Somers: "Kolb has limited starting experience and was inconsistent last season. And he lost his job after suffering a concussion. For some reason, Eagles fans seem to think Kolb will bring a ransom on the trade market. Giving up DRC would be hard enough for the Cardinals, but the Eagles asking for additional compensation (a draft pick) coiuld be a deal breaker."

Darren Urban of azcardinals.com offers thoughts on acquiring Kolb. Urban: "Both sides probably won’t end up with 'best-case scenario' in a deal for one to happen. The Eagles won’t get a ransom, the Cards won’t get off cheap."

Dan Bickley of the Arizona Republic says Cardinals strong safety Adrian Wilson is eager to get back on the field with a purpose. Wilson: "I had a down season last year. I know that. But there has been so much written and so much said about how I should retire, how I'm not the player I was. The respect level just isn't there. The work I've put in has been written off as if I haven't done anything." Retire? I'm not aware of anyone calling for Wilson's retirement. That would be way, way overboard.

Mike Jurecki of XTRA910 radio in Phoenix offers Cardinals-related thoughts during a chat. Jurecki on possible interest in Ike Taylor, who could have additional value if the team parted with Rodgers-Cromartie: "I think they will have interest. He's 31 -- looks like he's looking to cash in. Having Greg Toler gives them another option. Taylor is familiar with new Cards DC Ray Horton. He was Taylor's position coach in Pittsburgh."

Joe from Phoenix raises concerns about the St. Louis Rams' run defense. He sees other NFC West teams beefing up their ground games while the Rams appear largely unchanged on defense when it comes to stopping the run.

Mike Sando: The free-agent signing period was huge for the Rams in this department last offseason. It could be again. Defensive tackle Fred Robbins' addition from the New York Giants in free agency stands as one of the best moves in the division last offseason. The Rams could have a shot at another Giants lineman if Barry Cofield hits the market.

Cofield has missed only one game in five NFL seasons. He realizes his future with the Giants could be in question after the team used a second-round draft choice for Marvin Austin. Cofield wants a long-term deal. He is 27 years old and would presumably work well with Robbins and fit well within the Rams' defensive scheme. Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo was the Giants' defensive coordinator for the 2007 and 2008 seasons. Cofield, who entered the NFL in 2006, started 30 games during that two-year span.

The question would be whether the Rams would value Cofield enough to give him what the Giants might not be willing to give him. The Rams' need for a defensive tackle is greater than the Giants' need for one, so that could come into play.

The Scouts Inc. report on Cofield says he "plays with good leverage in the run game" but isn't a dynamic player with any one outstanding attribute.

The Rams could have gone after a defensive tackle in the first round of the draft, but pass-rush help is harder to find. It's tough to fault the team for selecting Robert Quinn in the first round based on the scouting reports.

Shoring up the run defense has to be a priority this offseason.

The Rams allowed 4.48 yards per rushing attempt last season, 22nd in the NFL. They ranked 17th in rushing yards allowed per game. Darren McFadden (145), Michael Turner (131) and Jamaal Charles (126) topped 100 yards rushing against the Rams last season. The Rams allowed 133.6 yards rushing per game in September, 76.2 in October, 118.3 in November and 134.6 after that point.

St. Louis faces Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs, Ray Rice, Peyton Hillis, Rashard Mendenhall and Cedric Benson outside the division in 2011, plus two NFC West dates with Frank Gore. The Cardinals and Seahawks have also taken steps to improve their ground games. It is Seattle's No. 1 priority this offseason.

The chart ranks rushing totals for the Rams' 2010 opponents in descending order.

Frank Gore overtook Steven Jackson by a 54-46 percentage margin in the unscientific poll conducted here last week.

NFL players disagreed. They ranked Gore 96th and Jackson somewhere between 31st and 40th among all NFL players heading into 2011, with precise slotting to be revealed Sunday on NFL Network. Jackson's coach, Steve Spagnuolo, will present Jackson for the program featuring the top 100 players in the league, according to information from the league.

Gore's teammate, linebacker Patrick Willis, explained in this video what separates Jackson from most backs in the league:

He can run inside, he can run outside. For a big guy, most of the time you'd think they want to be inside. He can jump cut. His jump cut is unbelievable. It is almost like LaDainian Tomlinson and LaDainian Tomlinson is way smaller than he is. And his jump cut is almost identical. You have to make sure you don't over-pursue too hard because he can cut it back and hurt you.

The way Jackson runs for his size has always defined him. Willis' specific example adds welcome detail. See also: 49ers running backs coach Tom Rathman saying he's never been around anyone as passionate about the game as Gore.

Jackson ranks ahead of running backs Michael Turner (42nd), Ray Rice (56th), Gore and Darren McFadden (98th) in polling among players. Jamaal Charles will also fall between 31st and 40th, according to the NFL. Four as-yet-unidentified running backs rank higher than Jackson.

The chart compares ESPN.com Blog Network power rankings for running backs to the order set by NFL players. I listed Charles and Jackson alphabetically because it wasn't yet clear which one would rank higher than the other in player polling.

The rankings match up rather closely to this point. More than 400 players voted in the player rankings.

Alan from Long Beach, Calif., cannot understand why Frank Gore's stock seems to be dropping in various NFL rankings, including the ones ESPN.com has put together recently. Alan considers Gore more valuable to the 49ers than any back is to his team, but he's seeking confirmation.

Mike Sando: Gore ranked tied for 10th in our balloting for best running backs in the NFL this offseason. I ranked Gore seventh behind Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Steven Jackson, Arian Foster and Jamaal Charles. Gore has missed nine games over the past three seasons, including the final five in 2010, and he was limited in other games.

Gore recently turned 28 years old. I still think he's among the very best backs in the NFL when healthy. He hasn't been healthy enough lately. His carries have diminished every season since 2006, but his production has been consistently strong. He's tough, runs hard and breaks tackles. He catches the ball well and set a career best last season by averaging 9.8 yards per reception. He blocks well in protection.

Gore has no weaknesses beyond concerns about his durability. Those concerns are real based on games missed and age relative to the 30-year-old barrier that has struck down plenty of running backs. The 49ers keep drafting running backs as insurance, but Gore remains their best back by a wide margin. I'd expect him to start the next two seasons and remain as productive as injuries allow him to be. His line should improve and that will help.

The chart lists the top 10 running backs in our rankings while providing basic rushing stats for them over the past three seasons. I've also included how many games they've played and how many they've missed to injury or other factors.

The short week allows less time for Seattle Seahawks fans to convince themselves their team can defy the odds by defeating New Orleans in the wild-card round.

Let's count the factors that could improve Seattle's chances:

• Diminished Saints ground game. Seattle contained the Atlanta Falcons' Michael Turner in its final regular-season home game. The Seahawks will not have to contend with a runner so physical Saturday. The Saints placed Chris Ivory on injured reserve Wednesday. Ivory rushed for 99 yards against Seattle. New Orleans also placed running back Pierre Thomas on injured reserve. Seattle has to like its chances against Julius Jones.
• Saints anti-climax. The defending Super Bowl champs must travel across the country to face a 7-9 team they defeated by two touchdowns already this season. Is that anything for them to get fired up about?
• The Hasselbeck factor. Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck completed 72.7 percent of his passes for 366 yards, one touchdown and a 104.9 rating against New Orleans in Week 11. He completed 18 of 22 passes on first down alone. Hasselbeck hasn't played a good game since facing the Saints. He should have confidence against them based on what happened last time. I'd be surprised, at this point, if Charlie Whitehurst started.
• Pete Carroll's easy coaching job. He's been joking all week about how he would never resort to playing the disrespect card. Of course he will. The Seahawks know their 7-9 record draws snickers. Oddsmakers made Carroll's motivational job even easier. There's no pressure on Seattle. What coach couldn't get his team frothing under these circumstances?
• Drew Brees' turnover troubles. Brees carved up Seattle last time. He had a strong running game on his side in that game. Will he Sunday? Brees has thrown 22 interceptions for the season. A couple turnovers in a hostile environment could turn momentum.
• The Leon Washington factor. Opponents have done a better job containing Seattle's return specialist recently. The Saints rank 28th in defending punt returns and 24th in defending kickoff returns. Does Washington break one this week?

Still not convinced? Hey, I tried. What other factors should we add to the list?

I've been waiting too long to write this, but our AFC East guy, Tim Graham, finally conquered his self-proclaimed nemesis in the ESPN.com Blog Network Gridiron Challenge.

The team named "I Own Tim Graham" still leads the more than 3,700 entrants in the ongoing fantasy game. But the real Tim Graham put up a season-high 139 points in Week 15, more than doubling his Week 14 total and exceeding each of the last four weekly totals from I Own Tim Graham. Michael Vick and Ray Rice carried Graham's team in Week 15 by scoring a combined 75 points. Graham's 139-point total ranked 36th among scores from 3,717 competitors.

I've enjoyed the Gridiron Challenge more than other fantasy games because the rules allow for quick recoveries each week. A bad break or two should never derail a season because all players remain available to anyone from week to week, for a price. There's always hope everything will come together next week.

I've tentatively got Philip Rivers, Vick, Michael Turner, Arian Foster, Arrelious Benn, Deion Branch, Jason Witten, Rian Lindell and the Dallas defense going in Week 16. The Bucs are trying to get the ball to Benn. Seattle's pass defense has had some problems this season. Only Philadelphia and Houston have allowed more completions of at least 30 yards.