NFC West: Michael Vick
After focusing on run, division looks to air
May, 2, 2012
May 2
10:07
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Every team in the NFC West had a 1,000-yard rusher last season.
Coaches in Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis have promoted run-first philosophies. Arizona has invested first- and second-round picks in running backs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, respectively.
Run, run, run.
And yet the division focused on the passing game quite a bit during the 2012 NFL draft -- on both sides of the ball. NFC West teams drafted a league-high three wide receivers in the first two rounds. Teams from the division drafted three cornerbacks in the first three rounds, tied with the NFC North for most in the league.
The charts show how many receivers and corners each division added through the first three rounds. The combined total for the NFC West (six) was the most for any division, one more than the NFC North.
St. Louis drafted cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins (second round) and Trumaine Johnson (third round). Arizona used a third-round choice for cornerback Jamell Fleming. Arizona (Michael Floyd) and San Francisco (A.J. Jenkins) used first-round picks for receivers. St. Louis added receiver Brian Quick in the second round (and another receiver, Chris Givens, in the fourth).
NFC West pass defenses could face additional pressure given the scheduling rotation in 2012.
Every NFC West team faces New England with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker.
The division also faces Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson), Detroit (Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew) and Chicago (Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall).
San Francisco draws New Orleans (Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston) and the New York Giants (Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz). Arizona faces Philadelphia (Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin) and Atlanta (Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones). Seattle faces Dallas (Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant) and Carolina (Cam Newton, Steve Smith).
The top five teams in 2011 passing yardage -- New Orleans, New England, Green Bay, Detroit and the Giants -- show up on NFC West schedules. Green Bay, New England, the Giants and Saints comprised the top four in yards per passing attempt. The top seven teams in passing touchdowns -- Green Bay, New Orleans, Detroit, New England, Dallas, Atlanta and the Giants -- play a combined 16 games against the NFC West.
And, of course, NFC West teams must face each other, which means games against Larry Fitzgerald, Vernon Davis, Randy Moss, Sidney Rice and others.
Coaches in Seattle, San Francisco and St. Louis have promoted run-first philosophies. Arizona has invested first- and second-round picks in running backs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams, respectively.
Run, run, run.
And yet the division focused on the passing game quite a bit during the 2012 NFL draft -- on both sides of the ball. NFC West teams drafted a league-high three wide receivers in the first two rounds. Teams from the division drafted three cornerbacks in the first three rounds, tied with the NFC North for most in the league.
The charts show how many receivers and corners each division added through the first three rounds. The combined total for the NFC West (six) was the most for any division, one more than the NFC North.
St. Louis drafted cornerbacks Janoris Jenkins (second round) and Trumaine Johnson (third round). Arizona used a third-round choice for cornerback Jamell Fleming. Arizona (Michael Floyd) and San Francisco (A.J. Jenkins) used first-round picks for receivers. St. Louis added receiver Brian Quick in the second round (and another receiver, Chris Givens, in the fourth).
NFC West pass defenses could face additional pressure given the scheduling rotation in 2012.
Every NFC West team faces New England with Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker.
The division also faces Green Bay (Aaron Rodgers, Jermichael Finley, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson), Detroit (Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew) and Chicago (Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall).
San Francisco draws New Orleans (Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston) and the New York Giants (Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz). Arizona faces Philadelphia (Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin) and Atlanta (Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones). Seattle faces Dallas (Tony Romo, Jason Witten, Dez Bryant) and Carolina (Cam Newton, Steve Smith).
The top five teams in 2011 passing yardage -- New Orleans, New England, Green Bay, Detroit and the Giants -- show up on NFC West schedules. Green Bay, New England, the Giants and Saints comprised the top four in yards per passing attempt. The top seven teams in passing touchdowns -- Green Bay, New Orleans, Detroit, New England, Dallas, Atlanta and the Giants -- play a combined 16 games against the NFC West.
And, of course, NFC West teams must face each other, which means games against Larry Fitzgerald, Vernon Davis, Randy Moss, Sidney Rice and others.
NFL general managers put their reputations on the line come draft day.
Some fare better than others.
The chart shows how many Pro Bowl players current NFC West GMs have drafted or helped draft over the past 10 years.
The numbers are not definitive. Current GMs from the division weren't always primary decision makers during the period in question. They do not deserve all the credit (or blame) for the players their teams drafted.
In some cases -- think first-team All-Pro choice NaVorro Bowman in San Francisco, for example -- very good players have not yet achieved Pro Bowl acclaim. In other cases, a single decision -- say, drafting Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay -- improved an organization's trajectory enough to launch other players to the Pro Bowl.
What we have, basically, is a starting point for discussion heading into the 2012 draft. Here's a look at each current NFC West GM and the associated 2002-2011 draft choices with Pro Bowls on their résumés:
Whoa, the NFC West chat is getting under way now. Gotta run.
Some fare better than others.
The chart shows how many Pro Bowl players current NFC West GMs have drafted or helped draft over the past 10 years.
The numbers are not definitive. Current GMs from the division weren't always primary decision makers during the period in question. They do not deserve all the credit (or blame) for the players their teams drafted.
In some cases -- think first-team All-Pro choice NaVorro Bowman in San Francisco, for example -- very good players have not yet achieved Pro Bowl acclaim. In other cases, a single decision -- say, drafting Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay -- improved an organization's trajectory enough to launch other players to the Pro Bowl.
What we have, basically, is a starting point for discussion heading into the 2012 draft. Here's a look at each current NFC West GM and the associated 2002-2011 draft choices with Pro Bowls on their résumés:
- John Schneider, Seattle Seahawks (10): Schneider is entering his third draft as a GM after joining the Seahawks from Green Bay, where he worked under Ted Thompson. Seattle safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor went to the Pro Bowl after last season. Schneider was in Green Bay when the Packers drafted eventual Pro Bowl choices B.J. Raji, Javon Walker, Aaron Rodgers, Clay Matthews, Nick Collins, Greg Jennings, Aaron Kampman and Scott Wells. Three notable non-Pro Bowl picks: Jermichael Finley, Richard Sherman, Matt Flynn.
- Trent Baalke, San Francisco 49ers (8): Baalke was with the Washington Redskins when they selected Sean Taylor and Chris Cooley. He was with the 49ers in a sub-GM role when San Francisco selected Vernon Davis, Patrick Willis, Joe Staley, Frank Gore, Dashon Goldson and Michael Robinson. Three notable non-Pro Bowl picks: Bowman, Aldon Smith, Ray McDonald.
- Rod Graves, Arizona Cardinals (7): Graves has been the Cardinals' GM for the entire period in question, although personnel director Steve Keim is ultimately responsible for setting the draft board. Draft choices Larry Fitzgerald, Patrick Peterson, Antrel Rolle, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Anquan Boldin, Darnell Dockett and Antonio Smith achieved Pro Bowl status. Smith went to the Pro Bowl with Houston last season. That counts for the purposes of our discussion. Three notable non-Pro Bowl picks: Calais Campbell, Karlos Dansby, Daryl Washington.
- Les Snead, St. Louis Rams (4): Snead enters his first draft as a GM after a long run with Atlanta. The Falcons selected eventual Pro Bowl choices Matt Ryan, DeAngelo Hall, Roddy White and Matt Schaub when Snead was with the team. Again, the period in question covers only the last 10 drafts, excluding from consideration other players (Michael Vick comes to mind among Snead-era Falcons choices). Three notable non-Pro Bowl picks: Curtis Lofton, Thomas DeCoud, Laurent Robinson.
Whoa, the NFC West chat is getting under way now. Gotta run.
One man's opinion on the top five Monday night games for 2012:
1. Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions, Week 16. Call this one the Karma Bowl. The Falcons took offense when Ndamukong Suh allegedly celebrated Matt Ryan's ankle injury during an October game between the teams last season. Suh called the injury "karma" for the Falcons' allegedly dirty tactics. Good teams and bad blood should make for good theater.
2. Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons, Week 2. Peyton Manning's first post-Indy appearance on "Monday Night Football" takes him to Atlanta for only the third time in his career. The Falcons are a footnote in this matchup. Manning plays only one indoor game during the 2012 regular season. This is it.
3. Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles, Week 12. Neither team had a winning record last season, but who cares? This game presents a chance to see Cam Newton and Michael Vick on the same night in the same stadium for the first time -- assuming they're both healthy enough to play after running around, into and through defenses for two-plus months.
4. Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers, Week 11. Patrick Willis versus Matt Forte. Brian Urlacher versus Frank Gore. Expect a physical game and a big test for Jay Cutler on the road. The 49ers have arguably the NFL's best defense, and they'll be eager to show it in prime time.
5. Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks, Week 3. Two NFC West teams on the list? What is this, the NFC West blog? Yes, but this one's legit. Few venues can approach Seattle for atmosphere, especially in prime time. And this game marks Green Bay's lone appearance on Monday night. The Matt Flynn storyline adds interest.
1. Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions, Week 16. Call this one the Karma Bowl. The Falcons took offense when Ndamukong Suh allegedly celebrated Matt Ryan's ankle injury during an October game between the teams last season. Suh called the injury "karma" for the Falcons' allegedly dirty tactics. Good teams and bad blood should make for good theater.
2. Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons, Week 2. Peyton Manning's first post-Indy appearance on "Monday Night Football" takes him to Atlanta for only the third time in his career. The Falcons are a footnote in this matchup. Manning plays only one indoor game during the 2012 regular season. This is it.
3. Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles, Week 12. Neither team had a winning record last season, but who cares? This game presents a chance to see Cam Newton and Michael Vick on the same night in the same stadium for the first time -- assuming they're both healthy enough to play after running around, into and through defenses for two-plus months.
4. Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers, Week 11. Patrick Willis versus Matt Forte. Brian Urlacher versus Frank Gore. Expect a physical game and a big test for Jay Cutler on the road. The 49ers have arguably the NFL's best defense, and they'll be eager to show it in prime time.
5. Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks, Week 3. Two NFC West teams on the list? What is this, the NFC West blog? Yes, but this one's legit. Few venues can approach Seattle for atmosphere, especially in prime time. And this game marks Green Bay's lone appearance on Monday night. The Matt Flynn storyline adds interest.
2012 Cardinals schedule: Simple requests
April, 16, 2012
Apr 16
10:55
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
A few simple requests for the Arizona Cardinals amid expectations the NFL will release its regular-season schedule Tuesday:
- Please, no back-to-back road games against the New England Patriots and New York Jets. Each of those games will require trips covering more than 2,100 air miles. Sure, the 49ers went 2-0 on an extended East Coast trip last season, remaining in Ohio between games. That worked for them, but when the Cardinals tried something similar in 2008, they gave up 80 total points in consecutive defeats to Washington and the Jets.
- Let's avoid late-season trips to cold-weather venues. Games against the Patriots, Jets and Green Bay Packers come to mind. Remember what happened to the Cardinals when they played the Patriots in a snowstorm during the 2008 season. They lost by 40 points.
- Another home game to open the season, please. The Cardinals have opened at home only three times since moving to Arizona in 1988. They beat Carolina at University of Phoenix Stadium to open last season. Hot September weather was once a deterrent to scheduling early games in Arizona. That is no longer the case now that the Cardinals play indoors.
- If the Cardinals play a Thursday night game on the road, make it against the 49ers. Arizona's trip to San Francisco is easily the shortest one the Cardinals make. A Thursday night road game against the Patriots or Jets would make for a tougher trip on a short week. Note that every NFL team plays at least one game in prime time this season, thanks in part to the league adding to its Thursday night schedule.
- Facing the Eagles late in the season could be preferable to facing them earlier, on the theory that quarterback Michael Vick takes a beating and wears down. A look through Vick's career passing stats by month showed no clear pattern of late-season struggles. November was his toughest month last season. That was when Arizona roughed up Vick, shut him down and forced him to miss the next three games with broken ribs. The Philadelphia-Arizona game figures to be big for Cardinals quarterback Kevin Kolb, who did not play against his former team when Arizona visited the Eagles last season.
Severe punishment handed down to the New Orleans Saints moved their bounty scandal into the No. 2 spot, past Spygate, on our recent list of top NFL scandals.
Some thought it should have outranked the Michael Vick dogfighting scandal, a subject Mike Golic and Doug Gottlieb debated Wednesday on Mike & Mike in the Morning
.
There was too much happening too quickly -- Alex Smith re-signing, Jeff Fisher holding a news conference, etc. -- for me to join the discussion Wednesday. Thanks to those who reached out to offer their opinions on the matter.
"Mike Vick at the 1 spot? Drop that to 2," DrHawk12 wrote. "Yeah, cruelty to animals, but Saints performed cruelty to humans. It's that simple."
Not quite.
The Saints' bounty scandal will not deprive them of their best player, Drew Brees. While Vick's behavior was decried almost universally, the Saints' actions initially provoked debate among fans and players over whether the Saints had even done anything wrong. Some still see the NFL's punishment as hypocritical, over the top and unwarranted.
It also remains unknown how much the punishment will affect the Saints' on-field success.
Vick was convicted of a felony and went to prison in his prime. He had a $100 million contract and was the face of the franchise. His demise sent the Falcons spiraling into a 4-12 season.
I was initially inclined to rank Spygate over the bounty scandal on the merits, but the punishment against the Saints was so much stronger. As always there was room for debate.
"Yeah, filming someone is way worse than intentionally trying to injure someone or send them off in a cart," Ultrawolf123 cracked.
The chart below, from ESPN Stats & Information, shows which teams have lost draft choices as punishment since 1980.
Some thought it should have outranked the Michael Vick dogfighting scandal, a subject Mike Golic and Doug Gottlieb debated Wednesday on Mike & Mike in the Morning
There was too much happening too quickly -- Alex Smith re-signing, Jeff Fisher holding a news conference, etc. -- for me to join the discussion Wednesday. Thanks to those who reached out to offer their opinions on the matter.
"Mike Vick at the 1 spot? Drop that to 2," DrHawk12 wrote. "Yeah, cruelty to animals, but Saints performed cruelty to humans. It's that simple."
Not quite.
The Saints' bounty scandal will not deprive them of their best player, Drew Brees. While Vick's behavior was decried almost universally, the Saints' actions initially provoked debate among fans and players over whether the Saints had even done anything wrong. Some still see the NFL's punishment as hypocritical, over the top and unwarranted.
It also remains unknown how much the punishment will affect the Saints' on-field success.
Vick was convicted of a felony and went to prison in his prime. He had a $100 million contract and was the face of the franchise. His demise sent the Falcons spiraling into a 4-12 season.
I was initially inclined to rank Spygate over the bounty scandal on the merits, but the punishment against the Saints was so much stronger. As always there was room for debate.
"Yeah, filming someone is way worse than intentionally trying to injure someone or send them off in a cart," Ultrawolf123 cracked.
The chart below, from ESPN Stats & Information, shows which teams have lost draft choices as punishment since 1980.
AP Photo/Bebeto MatthewsMichael Vick's arrest and imprisonment shocked the NFL and sent the Falcons reeling.1. Michael Vick to prison. Involvement in a dogfighting ring brought down one of the NFL's highest-profile, most dynamic quarterbacks in his prime. Vick was released and sent to prison, sending the Atlanta Falcons into turmoil. Vick owed nearly $20 million when he filed for bankruptcy in 2008 and the Falcons had to rebuild their franchise.
2. Saints bounties. Offering cash payments for injuries inflicted on opponents brought down the wrath from commissioner Roger Goodell: Saints coach Sean Payton was suspended for one year, former defensive coordinator Gregg Williams was suspended indefinitely, general manager Mickey Loomis was suspended for eight regular-season games, and the team was fined $500,000 and lost two second-round draft picks (one each in 2012 and '13) for their participation in a bounty program.
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Jim Rogash/Getty ImagesThe New England Patriots haven't won a Super Bowl since cheating allegations cost them $750,000 and a draft pick.
Jim Rogash/Getty ImagesThe New England Patriots haven't won a Super Bowl since cheating allegations cost them $750,000 and a draft pick.4. Hornung/Karras gambling. The NFL suspended Paul Hornung and Alex Karras for the 1963 season after both admitted to betting on NFL games. Hornung and Karras were both Pro Bowl players and Hornung was one of the league's biggest stars playing for the NFL's most iconic team: the Green Bay Packers. Commissioner Pete Rozelle reinstated both players in 1964, and Hornung wound up in the Hall of Fame.
Art Schlichter's one-year ban two decades later also deserves mention among player gambling scandals, but his standing in the league wasn't as strong at the time.
5. Eddie DeBartolo Jr. suspended. The San Francisco 49ers' former owner remains a beloved figure in team lore. He was a finalist for the Hall of Fame this year. But his 1998 felony conviction for failing to report extortion relating to a Louisiana casino project produced a $1 million fine and a one-year NFL suspension. DeBartolo wound up selling the 49ers, precipitating a decade of futility for the organization.
The Washington Redskins look like an early favorite to acquire the second overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft from the St. Louis Rams.
Jim Thomas' update for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch covers quite a few angles.
Another came to mind while reading the piece. What if the Redskins were the only team drafting among the top six with serious interest in Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III?
Such a thought seemed improbable while Griffin was lighting up the NFL scouting combine recently, but a post-combine report from Fox Sports' John Czarnecki lingers in my mind.
According to Czarnecki, Browns president Mike Holmgren and the team's coaching staff aren't necessarily sold on Griffin.
Under this thinking, Holmgren would prefer a quarterback to fit his system, not the other way around. Griffin's winning personality and phenomenal athleticism might make him a great prospect, but would the Browns see him as an ideal fit for their system -- enough so to justify parting with significant draft capital to get him?
Holmgren is not the Browns' coach, but he is particular about his offense and quarterbacks. He hired Pat Shurmur as head coach in part because Shurmur shared his vision for offense. Then again, Shurmur worked under Andy Reid in Philadelphia. Reid has obviously adapted his offense for a range of quarterbacks, notably Michael Vick.
All of this might be over-thinking things. My AFC North colleague, Jamison Hensley, thinks the Browns have little choice but to make a strong play for Griffin. That would serve the Rams well.
But if the Browns aren't all in for Griffin, what team represents the Redskins' competition for the second pick?
Minnesota picks third and Tampa Bay picks fifth. Both teams have invested in quarterbacks recently. Jacksonville, which picks seventh, has publicly committed to Blaine Gabbert as its franchise quarterback. Miami picks eighth, and as Thomas notes, the Dolphins might not be interested in dealing with St. Louis after the teams battled over Jeff Fisher. Miami also has ties to free-agent quarterback Matt Flynn.
Carolina picks ninth and already has Cam Newton. Buffalo picks 10th and has already publicly ruled out trading up for Griffin. Kansas City holds the 11th choice and could have interest even though Chiefs general manager Scott Pioli has said Matt Cassel is the clear starter. Seattle (12th) and Arizona (13th) hold the next two picks, and both can forget about the Rams sending a franchise quarterback their way.
Griffin might be worth taking second overall. That doesn't necessarily mean the market will allow the Rams to maximize the value of that choice.
The Rams do not necessarily need to make a killing in a trade. Griffin isn't in their plans, so they could conceivably get the player they really wanted a little later, plus whatever comes their way by trade. That would still represent a net gain.
Things to consider while the Rams weigh their options.
Jim Thomas' update for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch covers quite a few angles.
Another came to mind while reading the piece. What if the Redskins were the only team drafting among the top six with serious interest in Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III?
Such a thought seemed improbable while Griffin was lighting up the NFL scouting combine recently, but a post-combine report from Fox Sports' John Czarnecki lingers in my mind.
According to Czarnecki, Browns president Mike Holmgren and the team's coaching staff aren't necessarily sold on Griffin.
Under this thinking, Holmgren would prefer a quarterback to fit his system, not the other way around. Griffin's winning personality and phenomenal athleticism might make him a great prospect, but would the Browns see him as an ideal fit for their system -- enough so to justify parting with significant draft capital to get him?
Holmgren is not the Browns' coach, but he is particular about his offense and quarterbacks. He hired Pat Shurmur as head coach in part because Shurmur shared his vision for offense. Then again, Shurmur worked under Andy Reid in Philadelphia. Reid has obviously adapted his offense for a range of quarterbacks, notably Michael Vick.
All of this might be over-thinking things. My AFC North colleague, Jamison Hensley, thinks the Browns have little choice but to make a strong play for Griffin. That would serve the Rams well.
But if the Browns aren't all in for Griffin, what team represents the Redskins' competition for the second pick?
Minnesota picks third and Tampa Bay picks fifth. Both teams have invested in quarterbacks recently. Jacksonville, which picks seventh, has publicly committed to Blaine Gabbert as its franchise quarterback. Miami picks eighth, and as Thomas notes, the Dolphins might not be interested in dealing with St. Louis after the teams battled over Jeff Fisher. Miami also has ties to free-agent quarterback Matt Flynn.
Carolina picks ninth and already has Cam Newton. Buffalo picks 10th and has already publicly ruled out trading up for Griffin. Kansas City holds the 11th choice and could have interest even though Chiefs general manager Scott Pioli has said Matt Cassel is the clear starter. Seattle (12th) and Arizona (13th) hold the next two picks, and both can forget about the Rams sending a franchise quarterback their way.
Griffin might be worth taking second overall. That doesn't necessarily mean the market will allow the Rams to maximize the value of that choice.
The Rams do not necessarily need to make a killing in a trade. Griffin isn't in their plans, so they could conceivably get the player they really wanted a little later, plus whatever comes their way by trade. That would still represent a net gain.
Things to consider while the Rams weigh their options.
These 49ers prove they can win many ways
January, 16, 2012
Jan 16
1:33
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
The San Francisco 49ers defeated the previously 5-0 Detroit Lions on the road after losing a fumble on their first play and never forcing a turnover.
They ground out a 13-8 victory on the road against a rookie quarterback, Andy Dalton.
They won what turned into a 36-32 postseason shootout against the NFL's hottest quarterback, Drew Brees.
They came back from 20 points down in the second half to beat Philadelphia on the road. They ran away from previously 3-1 Tampa Bay to win a blowout, 48-3.
With the 49ers sitting one victory away from the Super Bowl, I went through their games looking for threads tying together their victories and defeats this season.
Turnovers are generally key for any team; the 49ers led the league in differential. But as the game against Detroit demonstrated, the 49ers could beat a good team on the road without prevailing in that pivotal category. That was one of six games this season the 49ers won after trailing in the fourth quarter.
A few things jumped out over the course of the season, counting playoffs:
Those are a few variables I noticed. There are quite a few others, surely. Which ones matter most in your view?
They ground out a 13-8 victory on the road against a rookie quarterback, Andy Dalton.
They won what turned into a 36-32 postseason shootout against the NFL's hottest quarterback, Drew Brees.
They came back from 20 points down in the second half to beat Philadelphia on the road. They ran away from previously 3-1 Tampa Bay to win a blowout, 48-3.
With the 49ers sitting one victory away from the Super Bowl, I went through their games looking for threads tying together their victories and defeats this season.
Turnovers are generally key for any team; the 49ers led the league in differential. But as the game against Detroit demonstrated, the 49ers could beat a good team on the road without prevailing in that pivotal category. That was one of six games this season the 49ers won after trailing in the fourth quarter.
A few things jumped out over the course of the season, counting playoffs:
- The 49ers gave up 20 sacks in their three defeats. That included nine at Baltimore, six against Dallas and five at Arizona. They allowed 28 sacks in their 14 victories.
- Attacking the 49ers' pass defense is key. The 49ers' record was 0-2 when allowing more than 8.5 yards per pass attempt and 2-3 when allowing more than 6.6. They were 12-0 when allowing less than that. The 49ers were also 9-0 when collecting at least three sacks. They were 1-2 when opponents completed better than 65 percent of their pass attempts. The Giants' Eli Manning completed 65 percent. The 49ers batted down his final pass to help preserve their 27-20 victory.
- The chart ranks opposing quarterbacks by yards per play when dropping back to pass or scrambling. The quarterbacks ranking near the top generally defeated the 49ers or made them sweat out victories. Dallas connected on long pass plays late to beat San Francisco. Arizona had pass plays for 60, 53 and 46 yards during its victory over the 49ers. The chart shows only regular-season opponents, but the Saints' Drew Brees nearly beat the 49ers with 66- and 44-yard touchdown passes.
- Attacking the 49ers' run defense seems less critical. The 49ers were 12-0 when allowing more than 2.6 yards per rushing attempt. They were 2-3 when allowing less than that. Yes, you read that correctly. They even went 3-1 when allowing 25 or more rushing attempts. They were 11-1 when allowing more than 55 yards rushing, including 4-0 when they allowed more than 92.
- The 49ers were 3-2 when allowing more than 20 points, including 2-1 when they allowed 27 or more. They were 4-0 when allowing more than 20 first downs and 9-1 when allowing more than 16 of them. They were 10-1 when opponents ran at least 60 plays and 4-2 in the other games.
- Venue matters. Alex Smith has 15 touchdown passes, three interceptions and 17 sacks in nine home games. He has five touchdown passes, two interceptions and 31 sacks in eight road games.
- Vernon Davis matters. Davis has 67 receptions for 884 yards and eight touchdowns in the 49ers' 14 victories. He has seven receptions for 88 yards and no touchdowns in three defeats. He averages 2.1 times as many receptions for 2.2 times as many yards in the 49ers' victories.
Those are a few variables I noticed. There are quite a few others, surely. Which ones matter most in your view?
Why young, ascending DBs can't get cocky
January, 11, 2012
Jan 11
2:21
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Mel Kiper Jr., in updating his draft-day grades for NFL teams for this Insider piece, says Seattle Seahawks rookie fifth-round pick Richard Sherman has helped to make the Seattle secondary "one of the best in the NFL in a really short period."
This is true. Sherman quickly served notice he could become one of the NFL's top corners. Fellow corner Brandon Browner and safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor also enjoyed strong seasons for Seattle.
Arizona also upgraded its secondary with cornerback Patrick Peterson. The 49ers added third-round corner Chris Culliver.
But before the NFC West's up-and-coming defensive backs get too cocky, they might want to check the 2012 list of opponents.
Every team in the division faces Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford next season. Seattle also draws Cam Newton. Arizona gets Matt Ryan and Michael Vick. The 49ers face Eli Manning and Drew Brees.
There will be plenty of opportunities for young NFC West defensive backs to prove their mettle -- and also to suffer through sophomore slumps.
In 2011, Seattle faced four quarterbacks outside the division who finished the season with more than 20 touchdown passes: Romo (31), Ryan (29), Manning (29) and Ben Roethlisberger (21). Injuries spared them from facing Jay Cutler or Vick, who failed to reach 20 touchdowns largely because they missed games.
The Seahawks are scheduled to face seven such quarterbacks outside the division in 2012, weighted heavily at the top: Rodgers (45), Stafford (41), Brady (39), Romo (31), Mark Sanchez (26), Ryan Fitzpatrick (24) and Newton (21).
Cutler could be healthy when the teams meet again in 2012. Sanchez and Fitzpatrick often struggled. Still, the top of that list is loaded.
This is true. Sherman quickly served notice he could become one of the NFL's top corners. Fellow corner Brandon Browner and safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor also enjoyed strong seasons for Seattle.
Arizona also upgraded its secondary with cornerback Patrick Peterson. The 49ers added third-round corner Chris Culliver.
But before the NFC West's up-and-coming defensive backs get too cocky, they might want to check the 2012 list of opponents.
Every team in the division faces Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford next season. Seattle also draws Cam Newton. Arizona gets Matt Ryan and Michael Vick. The 49ers face Eli Manning and Drew Brees.
There will be plenty of opportunities for young NFC West defensive backs to prove their mettle -- and also to suffer through sophomore slumps.
In 2011, Seattle faced four quarterbacks outside the division who finished the season with more than 20 touchdown passes: Romo (31), Ryan (29), Manning (29) and Ben Roethlisberger (21). Injuries spared them from facing Jay Cutler or Vick, who failed to reach 20 touchdowns largely because they missed games.
The Seahawks are scheduled to face seven such quarterbacks outside the division in 2012, weighted heavily at the top: Rodgers (45), Stafford (41), Brady (39), Romo (31), Mark Sanchez (26), Ryan Fitzpatrick (24) and Newton (21).
Cutler could be healthy when the teams meet again in 2012. Sanchez and Fitzpatrick often struggled. Still, the top of that list is loaded.
NFC South blogger Pat Yasinskas and I will be chatting soon for a piece sizing up the New Orleans Saints' and San Francisco 49ers' chances Saturday.
Of course, Pat will be the one reaching out as part of the long-established "gentleman's agreement" requiring bloggers covering lower-seeded teams to contact those for higher-seeded teams during the week leading up to a playoff matchup.
Each of us will be making a case for the teams from the divisions we cover. That's where you come in. How can the 49ers win this game?
I began throwing out a few notes on the subject during Twitter exchanges Saturday night. I'll revisit them here to get the conversation going:
I'm not predicting a 49ers victory, necessarily. But neither would I rule one out. If you are among those liking the 49ers' chances, please elaborate. Thanks.
Of course, Pat will be the one reaching out as part of the long-established "gentleman's agreement" requiring bloggers covering lower-seeded teams to contact those for higher-seeded teams during the week leading up to a playoff matchup.
Each of us will be making a case for the teams from the divisions we cover. That's where you come in. How can the 49ers win this game?
I began throwing out a few notes on the subject during Twitter exchanges Saturday night. I'll revisit them here to get the conversation going:
- The Saints played 11 indoor games during the regular season, averaging 38 points per game in them. They averaged 23.8 in their last four outdoor games. Weather should not be a problem Saturday, but the grass at Candlestick Park can be slick anyway.
- The Saints' last two outdoor games included a 22-17 victory at Tennesse and a 26-20 defeat at Tampa Bay. The Titans were eighth in points allowed this season. The Bucs were 32nd.
- The 49ers have allowed 10 total points in their last three home games, although the opposing quarterbacks were limited (an injured Ben Roethlisberger, A.J. Feeley and John Skelton).
- The 49ers played four explosive quarterbacks. They beat Michael Vick and Matthew Stafford on the road. They lost to Tony Romo at home. They beat Eli Manning at home. The 49ers allowed 422.5 total yards per game against those quarterbacks' teams, compared to 270.1 yards per game against everyone else. But they still went 3-1.
- Granted, Frank Gore did not finish the season strong. The 49ers still had 178 yards rushing at Seattle in Week 16, with Kendall Hunter and Alex Smith contributing.
- The St. Louis Rams (this season) and 49ers (last season) are the last two teams to hold the Saints beneath 300 yards.
I'm not predicting a 49ers victory, necessarily. But neither would I rule one out. If you are among those liking the 49ers' chances, please elaborate. Thanks.
You called it: Fearless predictions (Week 18)
January, 5, 2012
Jan 5
12:02
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
The Arizona Cardinals' record fourth overtime victory of the 2011 season vaulted NINERS4Ever66 onto the "You Called It" Wall of Fame as the regular season closed.
Nice work, '66.
We'll charge forward into the playoffs even though the NFC West has the wild-card round off. Simply use the comments section of this item to predict winners and scores for the following wild-card games:
The Falcons have to be the most nervous heading into the weekend. They have yet to win a playoff game with coach Mike Smith and quarterback Matt Ryan. They have not won one since Jim Mora and Michael Vick were central figures in Atlanta following the 2004 season. The Falcons beat St. Louis that season in what stands as the most recent playoff game for the Rams.
Back to the contest this week. You'll notice I've cleaned up the Wall of Fame to show only 2011 winners. The Wall was getting a little cluttered. I've also broken out a separate chart showing our repeat winners. pope_c_hawk owns one victory in each of the past three seasons. No one else can make that claim.
Congrats to all our winners, and good luck this week.
On a side note, the "You Called It" Wall of Fame board voted 1-0 to list pre-2011 winners separately in 10-person blocks, arranged alphabetically:
And now, on to the newly configured 2011 Wall ...
.
Nice work, '66.
We'll charge forward into the playoffs even though the NFC West has the wild-card round off. Simply use the comments section of this item to predict winners and scores for the following wild-card games:
- Cincinnati at Houston.
- Detroit at New Orleans.
- Atlanta at New York Giants.
- Pittsburgh at Denver.
The Falcons have to be the most nervous heading into the weekend. They have yet to win a playoff game with coach Mike Smith and quarterback Matt Ryan. They have not won one since Jim Mora and Michael Vick were central figures in Atlanta following the 2004 season. The Falcons beat St. Louis that season in what stands as the most recent playoff game for the Rams.
Back to the contest this week. You'll notice I've cleaned up the Wall of Fame to show only 2011 winners. The Wall was getting a little cluttered. I've also broken out a separate chart showing our repeat winners. pope_c_hawk owns one victory in each of the past three seasons. No one else can make that claim.
Congrats to all our winners, and good luck this week.
On a side note, the "You Called It" Wall of Fame board voted 1-0 to list pre-2011 winners separately in 10-person blocks, arranged alphabetically:
- _Mr_Zero_, 2_Zero_Sickness, 49ers r golden, ahlycom08, allenjr16, alvaden, artman9865, asowinski33, ballsthompson, BrandonD28;
- brobbb91, CardsCrush85, catterbu, ccolling7979, chahen, cloudturo, CoasterNiner, cobra7282, cole barrick, DiLune2;
- DirtyDezzzzert, egravning, Elion245, fadein, fundadfor2, guillermoman, habitat730, henlex, IAmAtATotalLoss, IamJonasJones;
- jayric81, Jeremy-Clark, Joe_Couch, John510asb, JohnnyBloodletter, juicy2446, kstaub869, Leesters, Lv4Sublime, MalibuRuffRider;
- noahhasabs, pglenn33, pope_c_hawk, Primeau1203, redng0ld, RedRumRBS, Redzone59, RiWeagley, roadto_1, RVAninersFAN;
- salukininer, SeahawkBell, Seahawks Ya Dig, skinavich, Superfuzz777, TACOREV, the_FREAKs_cousin, TLinkWC, ttmonee, vamp2q;
- whoknewitt, wonderfuldan, workmantiny, WRESTLEMASTER24,
And now, on to the newly configured 2011 Wall ...
.
When coaches heap praise upon their QBs
December, 22, 2011
12/22/11
8:02
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Hearing Pete Carroll and Jim Harbaugh gush about their starting quarterbacks can create confusion over their teams' intentions.
How serious are Carroll's Seattle Seahawks and Harbaugh's San Francisco 49ers about moving into the future with Tarvaris Jackson and Alex Smith as their respective quarterbacks?
Both coaches have had their quarterbacks' backs, and then some. Even before Seattle rebounded from a 2-6 start to reach 7-7, Carroll said he could envision Jackson as the Seahawks' long-term starter. Harbaugh recently called Smith a Pro Bowl-caliber player and long-term answer at quarterback for the 49ers.
What coaches say does not always line up with what NFL owners pay.
Smith has earned a raise, but would the 49ers pay him what Pro Bowl quarterbacks typically earn?
Fourteen QBs earned Pro Bowl honors over the 2009-10 seasons: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Cassel, Brett Favre, David Garrard, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Michael Vick and Vince Young.
Most were playing under and/or subsequently earned massive contracts.
Jackson is entering the final year of a contract that scheduled to pay him $4 million in base salary. Smith is earning $4 million in base salary this season.
Those salaries represent good money for backup quarterbacks.
The 49ers should be able to keep Smith without paying him what those Pro Bowl passers earned. They've already paid millions to him as the No. 1 overall choice in the 2005 NFL draft. Smith has expressed in the past an interest in rewarding the 49ers for an investment that did not work out as intended before this season.
Smith has proven to be a good fit for the 49ers under Harbaugh. Jackson is fitting with Seattle under Carroll. I suspect both have come on strong with their public support to combat lingering negative perceptions about both quarterbacks.
If Jackson or Smith were obviously franchise quarterbacks and long-term solutions behind center, their coaches wouldn't have to convince anyone. It would be obvious. The praise from Carroll and Harbaugh has likely helped both quarterbacks exceed outside expectations no matter what their teams have in mind for them beyond this season.
How serious are Carroll's Seattle Seahawks and Harbaugh's San Francisco 49ers about moving into the future with Tarvaris Jackson and Alex Smith as their respective quarterbacks?
Both coaches have had their quarterbacks' backs, and then some. Even before Seattle rebounded from a 2-6 start to reach 7-7, Carroll said he could envision Jackson as the Seahawks' long-term starter. Harbaugh recently called Smith a Pro Bowl-caliber player and long-term answer at quarterback for the 49ers.
What coaches say does not always line up with what NFL owners pay.
Smith has earned a raise, but would the 49ers pay him what Pro Bowl quarterbacks typically earn?
Fourteen QBs earned Pro Bowl honors over the 2009-10 seasons: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Cassel, Brett Favre, David Garrard, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Michael Vick and Vince Young.
Most were playing under and/or subsequently earned massive contracts.
Jackson is entering the final year of a contract that scheduled to pay him $4 million in base salary. Smith is earning $4 million in base salary this season.
Those salaries represent good money for backup quarterbacks.
The 49ers should be able to keep Smith without paying him what those Pro Bowl passers earned. They've already paid millions to him as the No. 1 overall choice in the 2005 NFL draft. Smith has expressed in the past an interest in rewarding the 49ers for an investment that did not work out as intended before this season.
Smith has proven to be a good fit for the 49ers under Harbaugh. Jackson is fitting with Seattle under Carroll. I suspect both have come on strong with their public support to combat lingering negative perceptions about both quarterbacks.
If Jackson or Smith were obviously franchise quarterbacks and long-term solutions behind center, their coaches wouldn't have to convince anyone. It would be obvious. The praise from Carroll and Harbaugh has likely helped both quarterbacks exceed outside expectations no matter what their teams have in mind for them beyond this season.
Rogers, Baldwin and other unlikely leaders
December, 7, 2011
12/07/11
10:30
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Notable NFC West appearances on the Advanced NFL Stats player pages tracking measurable contributions through Week 13:
- Seattle's Chris Clemons and Arizona's Calais Campbell appear with Minnesota's Jared Allen and the New York Giants' Jason Pierre-Paul among the top four defensive ends. Clemons and Campbell are strong against run and pass. The interception Campbell made against Philadelphia stands out as a highlight. Michael Vick's pass hit Campbell in the upper body from close range. Campbell seemed to absorb the ball.
- Seattle's Doug Baldwin ranks ninth among receivers. Wes Welker, Victor Cruz, Anquan Boldin, Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings comprise the top five. Baldwin ranks just ahead of Calvin Johnson and Mike Wallace. The rankings consider only how players' contributions affected their teams' probability for winning. Baldwin is tied for the NFL lead in third-down receptions for first downs. He has 18, one more than Welker.
- Arizona's Darnell Dockett and San Francisco's Justin Smith top the list of NFL defensive tackles. Both play defensive end in 3-4 base defenses. They also play tackle. The NFL has listed them as defensive tackles for years. That is the position they would play in a 4-3 defense. Smith has stood out all season; he leads the defensive tackles listed with 14 quarterback hits. Dockett made impact plays against Dallas in Week 13. This is a strong list. Haloti Ngata and Ndamukong Suh are in the top six.
- San Francisco's Delanie Walker outranks Vernon Davis among tight ends. Davis has outproduced Walker, but Walker's contributions have been more pivotal to winning. For example, Walker caught the winning touchdown pass against Detroit. Walker's 29-yard scoring catch against Dallas broke a 14-14 tie late in the third quarter. Davis and Walker both rank among the top 13.
- Seattle's Kam Chancellor tops the list of safeties.
- The New York Jets' Darrelle Revis leads cornerbacks, but the 49ers' Carlos Rogers and the Seahawks' Brandon Browner are next, just ahead of ex-49ers corner Nate Clements. Rogers and Browner have combined for nine interceptions.
Seahawks' Hawthorne active despite knee
December, 1, 2011
12/01/11
7:09
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
SEATTLE -- The Seattle Seahawks will have middle linebacker David Hawthorne and cornerback Richard Sherman for their game against Philadelphia on Thursday night. Both players are active after missing practice time with injuries.
Inactive for Seattle: quarterback Josh Portis, safety Jeron Johnson, cornerback Byron Maxwell, linebacker Adrian Moten, tackle Jarriel King, tackle Allen Barbre and defensive lineman Pep Levingston.
Inactive for Philadelphia: quarterback Michael Vick, receiver Jeremy Maclin, cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, tackle King Dunlap, guard Julian Vandervelde, defensive end Phillip Hunt and the recently signed Greg Lloyd.
Seattle has five wide receivers active despite placing Sidney Rice on injured reserve. Deon Butler, who suffered a career-threatening leg injury at San Francisco last season, is active for the first time this season.
Hawthorne's mobility will be a subject of interest in this game. Knee problems have bothered him at times during the season, including last week. The shortened week of recovery time could work against him.
Inactive for Seattle: quarterback Josh Portis, safety Jeron Johnson, cornerback Byron Maxwell, linebacker Adrian Moten, tackle Jarriel King, tackle Allen Barbre and defensive lineman Pep Levingston.
Inactive for Philadelphia: quarterback Michael Vick, receiver Jeremy Maclin, cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, tackle King Dunlap, guard Julian Vandervelde, defensive end Phillip Hunt and the recently signed Greg Lloyd.
Seattle has five wide receivers active despite placing Sidney Rice on injured reserve. Deon Butler, who suffered a career-threatening leg injury at San Francisco last season, is active for the first time this season.
Hawthorne's mobility will be a subject of interest in this game. Knee problems have bothered him at times during the season, including last week. The shortened week of recovery time could work against him.
Bringing pressure? Some QBs simply shrug
November, 29, 2011
11/29/11
6:50
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
The best NFL quarterbacks are good against standard and added pressure alike.
Aaron Rodgers comes to mind. The Green Bay Packers' quarterback leads the NFL in Total QBR when opponents send four or fewer pass-rushers, and also when they send five or more, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Alex Smith's stronger production against five or more pass-rushers has stood out all season.
Multiple factors can produce such a disparity. A quick-thinking quarterback armed with a strong game plan and a solid protection scheme can have an advantage against added pressure. Quarterbacks working behind weaker offensive lines could suffer against standard pressure if opponents got to them without sacrificing coverage. Having additional players in coverage affords defenses with additional combinations in coverage, another consideration.
The chart immediately below ranks quarterbacks by the largest QBR disparity when facing five or more pass-rushers vs. four or fewer. Smith and Arizona's Kevin Kolb are among 11 quarterbacks with higher QBR scores against five or more rushers. They have done better against pressure, in theory. Ranking higher on the list isn't necessarily desirable; like Rodgers, a top quarterback should produce in both areas.
Fifty is an average score, with 100 as the limit.
QBR differential is an imperfect measure because point differentials nearer the margins (zero and 100) carry more significance than they do nearer the middle of the range. But the disparities are still helpful in showing how quarterbacks perform, in general, across these situations.
Rex Grossman, who heads the first chart, completed 9 of 12 passes for 117 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions and one sack when the Seahawks sent five or more rushers against him Sunday. He completed 17 of 23 passes for 197 yards with one touchdown, two interceptions and no sacks against standard pressure.
The final chart shows the 22 qualifying quarterbacks with better QBR numbers when facing four or fewer pass-rushers, again ranked by percentage difference.
Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson and St. Louis' Sam Bradford show up on this list. There is Rodgers, down at the bottom, nearly equally strong in each situation.
Aaron Rodgers comes to mind. The Green Bay Packers' quarterback leads the NFL in Total QBR when opponents send four or fewer pass-rushers, and also when they send five or more, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Alex Smith's stronger production against five or more pass-rushers has stood out all season.
- Smith vs. four or fewer rushers: six touchdowns, four interceptions and 16 sacks in 222 dropbacks, with a 47.7 QBR (50 is average) and an 84.7 NFL passer rating.
- Smith vs. five or more: seven touchdowns, one interception and 14 sacks in 106 dropbacks, with a 57.2 QBR and 105.9 NFL rating.
Multiple factors can produce such a disparity. A quick-thinking quarterback armed with a strong game plan and a solid protection scheme can have an advantage against added pressure. Quarterbacks working behind weaker offensive lines could suffer against standard pressure if opponents got to them without sacrificing coverage. Having additional players in coverage affords defenses with additional combinations in coverage, another consideration.
The chart immediately below ranks quarterbacks by the largest QBR disparity when facing five or more pass-rushers vs. four or fewer. Smith and Arizona's Kevin Kolb are among 11 quarterbacks with higher QBR scores against five or more rushers. They have done better against pressure, in theory. Ranking higher on the list isn't necessarily desirable; like Rodgers, a top quarterback should produce in both areas.
Fifty is an average score, with 100 as the limit.
QBR differential is an imperfect measure because point differentials nearer the margins (zero and 100) carry more significance than they do nearer the middle of the range. But the disparities are still helpful in showing how quarterbacks perform, in general, across these situations.
Rex Grossman, who heads the first chart, completed 9 of 12 passes for 117 yards and one touchdown with no interceptions and one sack when the Seahawks sent five or more rushers against him Sunday. He completed 17 of 23 passes for 197 yards with one touchdown, two interceptions and no sacks against standard pressure.
The final chart shows the 22 qualifying quarterbacks with better QBR numbers when facing four or fewer pass-rushers, again ranked by percentage difference.
Seattle's Tarvaris Jackson and St. Louis' Sam Bradford show up on this list. There is Rodgers, down at the bottom, nearly equally strong in each situation.

