NFC West: MVP Watch
Derick E. Hingle/US PresswireDrew Brees broke Dan Marino's 27-year-old single-season passing record Monday night.The manner in which Brees broke the record shouldn't matter too much in the end because Brees needed only 15 games to break it. Yes, the Saints kept passing during their blowout victory over Atlanta solely because they wanted Brees to get the record. But if the record hadn't fallen Monday night, Brees likely would have claimed it against Carolina in Week 17 -- a game the Saints must win for any shot at the NFC's second seed in the playoffs.
One thing I wanted to know, however, was to what degree Marino chased Dan Fouts' previous record with the same sense of purpose. A trip back into 1984 showed Marino taking a different, more organic path to the record.
Marino entered the 1984 regular-season finale against the Dallas Cowboys with a chance to clinch home-field advantage through the AFC playoffs.
A week earlier, Marino had thrown four second-half touchdown passes to turn a 17-7 deficit into a 35-17 victory over Indianapolis. Needing just 19 yards against the Cowboys to break Fouts' record, Marino closed the season with a 340-yard effort featuring the winning 63-yard touchdown pass to Mark Clayton with 51 seconds remaining.
The Cowboys had tied the game with 1:47 remaining on a deflected 66-yard pass that Tony Hill caught off the rebound.
"The final moments were as stunning and sensational as in any game this season," the New York Times' Michael Janofsky wrote at the time.
Marino was the MVP, of course. Brees, despite his record-setting ways, stands second on our list again this week. Rodgers has more touchdown passes and fewer interceptions for a team with a better record and a Week 1 victory over Brees' Saints. But if Green Bay rests Rodgers and its starters while Brees outduels Cam Newton in Week 17, then what?
US PresswireGreen Bay's Aaron Rodgers (right), New Orleans' Drew Brees (center) and New England's Tom Brady remain the focus of the MVP conversation.The Big Three haven't changed for weeks. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady have earned their spots at the top. The other seven spots are largely negotiable from week to week.
Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Terrell Suggs, Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker appeared last week. All five are sitting this one out for various reasons:
- Manning: Blame a 1-5 record over the Giants' last six games even though Manning remains supremely valuable to his team.
- Roethlisberger: A nasty ankle injury and the San Francisco 49ers' defense doomed Roethlisberger to a three-interception performance while raising questions about his status for the near future.
- Suggs: Great player, horrible defensive performance from Baltimore against San Diego.
- Gronkowski: How dare the Patriots target other players for a week. Gronkowski went without a touchdown after scoring 11 in his six previous games.
- Welker: Had four receptions for 41 yards, his second-lowest totals of the season.
Those five remain in the conversation outside The Conversation. In other words, none is going to seriously challenge for MVP honors while Rodgers, Brees and Brady are rewriting record books, but all five remain worthy of a mention.
The same was true for the five players new to the list from last week.
Good seeing you again, Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford. You, too, Tony Romo and Philip Rivers. There was also room for Justin Smith in the No. 10 spot after his 49ers held the Pittsburgh Steelers to three points Monday night. Smith is the best player on arguably the NFL's best defense, and one reason the 49ers have not allowed a rushing touchdown in 15 games or a 100-yard rusher in 36.
Jim Cowsert/Icon SMITim Tebow isn't the only quarterback gaining ground in the MVP Watch discussion. Eli Manning (above) appears close to joining Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Tom Brady near the top of the list.It's just not feasible.
Of course, few can do what Tim Tebow is doing in Denver.
Tebow, who's on pace for 11 starts by season's end, still has not cracked the weekly MVP Watch list. He is coming close, however, and a Tebow-led Denver Broncos victory over New England in Week 15 would be impossible to overlook no matter how inartistic the performance appears through three quarters.
The way the Broncos' second-year quarterback and all-purpose threat suddenly becomes dominant in fourth quarters continues to confound, as does Tebow's unconventional playing style.
I found Trent Dilfer's column
"Defenses find themselves in the almost impossible situation of entering a three-reaction mode," Dilfer wrote. "They can't just react to the fake handoff, and they can't just second react to the threat of the pass. They have to react a third time to threat of the run by the quarterback."
As a result, coverages break down badly enough at times to leave receivers not just open, but completely uncovered. Even unrefined passers can complete passes in those situations. Tebow figures to have additional opportunities against the Patriots' weak pass defense. Count me among those who thinks the Broncos have a chance.
Ezra Shaw/Getty ImagesPatrick Willis debuts on the MVP Watch list after another standout performance in Week 11.Trent Baalke, the 49ers' general manager, and Jed York, their team president, could qualify for consideration as top executives for 2011.
Identifying a single 49ers player as an MVP candidate isn't so easy. Inside linebacker Patrick Willis makes his debut on the MVP Watch list this week because he has stepped up his already dominant play in recent weeks, becoming the player most qualified to represent the 9-1 49ers this week. Harbaugh has called Willis the "least talked about great player" in the league. With the 49ers visiting Baltimore on Thanksgiving and facing Pittsburgh in a Monday night game three weeks later, perhaps that will start to change.
"He’s the five-tool linebacker," Harbaugh said. "Plays downhill, I think, better than any linebacker in football, but he can also cover. ... He can run sideline to sideline. He can run plays down from the backside. He’s got the speed to shoot a gap and make a play from behind and you see that many times. Excellent blitzer."
No defensive player has won MVP honors since Lawrence Taylor in 1986. Willis isn't going to end that streak in a league increasingly dominated by quarterbacks, but the 49ers needed representation here, and Willis gets the call.
Running back Frank Gore has frequented the MVP Watch list recently, peaking at No. 2 after a string of five consecutive games with at least 107 yards rushing. A six-carry, zero-yard performance against the New York Giants in arguably the 49ers' most impressive victory undercut his candidacy. His overall stats aren't in line with those for MVP running backs.
Quarterback Alex Smith deserves credit for avoiding mistakes and chipping away at the negative connotations surrounding the term "game manager," but 14 quarterbacks have more touchdown passes than Smith this season. Three have at least twice as many. Smith has been valuable to the 49ers, no question, but not that valuable.
AP Photo/Tony GutierrezA strong performance against Buffalo helped land Tony Romo a spot on the MVP Watch list for the first time since September.Aaron Rodgers remains the prohibitive favorite, of course, and to demonstrate the surety of his footing atop the MVP mountaintop, I considered whether he would remain No. 1 even if Romo impossibly duplicated his recent first-half performance in every half for the remainder of the NFL season.
The answer: he might, thanks to the stats and the Packers' undefeated record. But let's do the math.
Romo completed 18 of 19 passes for 237 yards and three touchdowns in the first two quarters of the Cowboys' 44-7 victory.
No quarterback could ever produce such numbers in every half, of course, but if Romo did so for the final seven games, his stat line at season's end would look like this: 452 of 575 passing (78.6 percent) for 5,826 yards with 58 touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 137.4 NFL passer rating.
Rodgers is currently on pace to finish the season with these numbers: 382 of 524 passing for 5,100 yards with 50 touchdowns, five interceptions and a 131.2 NFL passer rating.
That means the dream-land projections for Romo would produce relatively small advantages for the Dallas quarterback in yards per attempt (10.1 to 9.7) and touchdown percentage (10.1 to 9.5), but Rodgers would still have a lower interception percentage (9.5 to 12.2). And the Packers would finish the season 16-0, which would make Rodgers the MVP favorite, in my view.
Look, I'm not sure how many more ways we can break down Rodgers' dominance, but if you've got ideas, please do share them.
A couple more notes on Romo, courtesy of NFC East blogger Dan Graziano:
- Sunday was the first game since Week 2, when Romo broke his ribs, that he played without the Kevlar vest. He is finally fully healthy.
- Also, rookie DeMarco Murray has rushed for 601 yards in the last four games since taking over as the starter for the injured Felix Jones. The emergence of a running game has provided a major boost to Romo, whose big game Sunday came despite Miles Austin's injury-related absence.
Now, our weekly look at Rodgers and nine players I've singled out for consideration should something change unexpectedly.
Aaron Rodgers deserves his own special MVP Watch category as the prohibitive favorite for the annual NFL award.
The rest of the field shouldn't even inhabit the same paragraph, let alone the same sentence.
Out of respect for Rodgers, I'll stall a little longer before addressing the other candidates.
Rodgers could conceivably take off the month of December and still command more votes than the others. Seriously.
Take away the Green Bay Packers' four December games and Rodgers' projected season totals would include 12 victories and nearly 4,000 yards, with 36 touchdowns and less than five interceptions. Brett Favre averaged 12 victories and about 4,000 yards during his three MVP seasons, with 37.7 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
OK, enough stalling. On to the rest of the MVP Watch list heading into Week 10.
I moved up the San Francisco 49ers' Frank Gore to No. 2 after Gore set a franchise record with his fifth consecutive 100-yard rushing performance. With arguably the NFL's best defense and special teams, the 49ers haven't needed or even sought to field a dynamic offense. Gore's tough, consistent running has largely been enough. He's averaging a career-best 19.9 rushing attempts per game despite dealing with ankle injuries that have limited his playing time occasionally.
There is still no viable comparison between the season Gore is enjoying and the seasons put forth by the two running backs to win MVP honors most recently.
Shaun Alexander was the 2005 MVP with 370 carries for 1,880 yards and 27 touchdowns for a 13-3 team. LaDainian Tomlinson was the 2006 MVP with 348 carries for 1,815 yards and 28 scores, breaking Alexander's record for touchdowns in a season. Both played for dynamic offenses featuring Pro Bowl quarterbacks. They carried their offenses and also benefited from them.
As impressive as Gore has been lately, he's on pace to finish with 318 carries for 1,564 yards and 10 touchdowns. That would constitute a very good season, not a great one. He's largely carrying the offense, but there's a lot less offense to carry.
The rest of the field shouldn't even inhabit the same paragraph, let alone the same sentence.
Out of respect for Rodgers, I'll stall a little longer before addressing the other candidates.
Rodgers could conceivably take off the month of December and still command more votes than the others. Seriously.
Take away the Green Bay Packers' four December games and Rodgers' projected season totals would include 12 victories and nearly 4,000 yards, with 36 touchdowns and less than five interceptions. Brett Favre averaged 12 victories and about 4,000 yards during his three MVP seasons, with 37.7 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
OK, enough stalling. On to the rest of the MVP Watch list heading into Week 10.
I moved up the San Francisco 49ers' Frank Gore to No. 2 after Gore set a franchise record with his fifth consecutive 100-yard rushing performance. With arguably the NFL's best defense and special teams, the 49ers haven't needed or even sought to field a dynamic offense. Gore's tough, consistent running has largely been enough. He's averaging a career-best 19.9 rushing attempts per game despite dealing with ankle injuries that have limited his playing time occasionally.
There is still no viable comparison between the season Gore is enjoying and the seasons put forth by the two running backs to win MVP honors most recently.
Shaun Alexander was the 2005 MVP with 370 carries for 1,880 yards and 27 touchdowns for a 13-3 team. LaDainian Tomlinson was the 2006 MVP with 348 carries for 1,815 yards and 28 scores, breaking Alexander's record for touchdowns in a season. Both played for dynamic offenses featuring Pro Bowl quarterbacks. They carried their offenses and also benefited from them.
As impressive as Gore has been lately, he's on pace to finish with 318 carries for 1,564 yards and 10 touchdowns. That would constitute a very good season, not a great one. He's largely carrying the offense, but there's a lot less offense to carry.
Rich Kane/Icon SMIEli Manning returns to the MVP Watch list after leading the New York Giants to a 5-2 record.The Indianapolis Colts' injured quarterback won't be appearing on the MVP Watch list following a spirited debate on the subject last week. His team has gone from perennial double-digit winner to 0-8 without him, but the award will ultimately go to someone demonstrating value by his presence, not absence.
Speaking of absences, there are a few notable ones this week.
Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy stands out as the most obvious one. He's gaining as an MVP candidate as long as the Eagles continue their rise from a 1-4 start to the season.
The MVP Watch list this week features only players from teams with winning records. Minnesota's Adrian Peterson was the lone exception last week, ranking 10th despite the Vikings' 1-6 record (now 2-6).
NFC East blogger Dan Graziano nominated McCoy and New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning for consideration this week. I went with Manning at No. 10 for now, bumping Peterson from the list and leaving McCoy on deck. McCoy's Eagles can get to 4-4 with a victory over Chicago on the Monday night stage.
It's always tough balancing individual and team performance.
Jared Allen and DeMarcus Ware are on pace to set the single-season record for sacks. Their teams aren't doing as well, however, and that hurts their MVP candidacies.
The last 25 MVPs have played for teams that averaged 12.8 victories and 3.2 defeats. Only one team during that time, the 9-7 Detroit Lions with Barry Sanders in 1997, produced an MVP with fewer than 10 victories. And Sanders was co-MVP with Brett Favre that year, not an outright one.
AP Photo/Tom UhlmanPeyton Manning hasn't been able to do anything but watch as the Colts have struggled this season.He's the clear, obvious favorite heading into the Green Bay Packers' bye week.
Without him, the Packers might be 3-4 or 2-5 instead of 7-0. But would they be as bad as the 0-7 Indianapolis Colts have been without Peyton Manning? Would they be getting blown out 62-7 the way Indy got blown out at New Orleans?
Doubtful.
If the MVP award honors true value, then, surely Manning must factor into the discussion somewhere, no? I opened up the question Wednesday and promised to publish the most compelling responses here.
"Honestly, yeah, his absence from the Colts has done more harm to them than any other player has helped their own team," Steve Ebner wrote.
That opinion was in the clear minority.
"Ridiculous counter-factual," Karl McDonald wrote. "Is Dan Marino the MVP because of how bad the Dolphins are doing without him?"
Not bad.
"It's the Most Valuable PLAYER award," John M. Nicoletta wrote. "Peyton hasn't PLAYED. Thus, he's ineligible. No doubt his absence is significant, but if that were the criteria, Steve Hutchinson would have been named Seahawks MVP for the past six seasons!"
Ouch.
"If Peyton Manning merits MVP consideration, then I nominate Mike Singletary for Coach of the Year for not being in San Francisco," Jason Nawahine added. "Manning under center wasn't going to stop Drew Brees and the Saints from putting up a fifty-burger on that defense."
Even Paul Kuharsky, our AFC South representative, shot down the notion of Manning entering the MVP conversation.
"If Aaron Rodgers finishes the season with numbers anything close to what he’s on pace for, if the Packers roll to the top seed in the NFC, how could anyone in good conscience cast a vote for Manning over Rodgers?" he asked.
I get it and agree. There could be no justification for voting Manning over Rodgers. But I could see listing Manning, say, third on a ballot as a testament to his value.
The Patriots went 10-5 with Matt Cassel starting in 2008. The Packers nearly won at New England in Week 15 last season with Matt Flynn tossing three touchdown passes in his only start of the season. Manning's absence from the Colts' lineup has turned a perennial playoff team into a laughingstock. That might make him more valuable than any player in the league, whether or not he deserves consideration for the MVP award itself.
Dennis Wierzbicki/US PresswireMatt Forte's all-around contributions helped land him on the MVP Watch list for the first time in 2011.Let's not overlook the running backs.
Five earned spots on the list this week, the largest number I can recall in two-plus seasons maintaining MVP Watch. Four appeared one year ago, but none of the four -- Chris Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Arian Foster and Steven Jackson -- appears this time. Perhaps that's just the fleeting nature of the position.
San Francisco's Frank Gore and Chicago's Matt Forte are the running backs charging into consideration with the most momentum in 2011.
Forte has 408 yards rushing over the Bears' past three games. No player over the past five seasons had reached 400 yards over his team's fourth through sixth games. Only five others have done so since 2000. Gore has 393 yards on a modest 50 carries over the same period. His team has increasingly relied on his production while building a 5-1 record, the 49ers' best through six games since 1998.
We discussed last week which 49ers player, Gore or Alex Smith or someone on defense, deserved strongest consideration for MVP honors.
"I would just wait for one more week before I nominate," 4949centennial wrote. "My early candidate is Alex Smith, but I'm not ready to vote on him yet."
I was surprised to see more than twice as much support for Smith than for Gore in our SportsNation polling, and in spite of this, Gore was my choice for inclusion at that time. In my view, the 49ers were doing more to support Smith than the other way around. I moved up Gore from 10th last week to third this week after his 141-yard performance against previously 5-0 Detroit.
Smith played his worst game of the season until tossing the winning touchdown pass. Gore didn't get the ball as frequently as anticipated, but when he did, great things happened. He had two carries longer than 45 yards, and his late-game running helped sustain the winning drive.
With some of the other candidates suffering through down weeks -- Drew Brees and the no-longer-listed Wes Welker come to mind -- there was plenty of room for Gore closer to the top. The Lions' Calvin Johnson even moved up a spot, more by default than through performance, although he did exceed 100 yards receiving against San Francisco.
Jason O. Watson/US PresswireSan Francisco's Frank Gore has rushed for at least 125 yards in back-to-back games.Frank Gore waited three weeks for his opening with the San Francisco 49ers this season. He's rushed for 252 yards over his past two games, a leading reason the 49ers have improved to 4-1 with victories over Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. The recent surge has landed Gore in the No. 10 spot on the weekly MVP Watch.
"He had his burst back," 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh said after Gore gashed the Bucs for 125 yards on 20 carries. "He looked like Frank. He’s having fun out there. That’s the thing I see in Frank most of all right now, is that he’s enjoying football."
Gore did it all against the Eagles as well. He broke a 40-yard run on his first carry. He added a 25-yarder during the drive to his winning 12-yard scoring run. And when the 49ers needed to run out the clock on their final possession, Gore carried five times in a row, getting at least 4 yards every time, as the Eagles burned through their timeouts.
For the season, Gore's 400 yards and three touchdowns put him on pace for 1,280 and 10, respectively. But if the last two games provide a more meaningful representation of Gore's projected production, the two-time Pro Bowl choice would be on his way to nearly 1,800 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Gore isn't the only newcomer to the MVP Watch list this week. The New England Patriots' Wes Welker makes a belated 2011 debut, while the Buffalo Bills' Fred Jackson returns to the list. Eli Manning, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Philip Rivers dropped from the top 10.
Welker's omission a week ago produced quite a few complaints, and justifiably so. He's on pace to finish with 144 receptions for 2,368 yards and 16 touchdowns. I'd left him off previously under the assumption no one but Tom Brady would win the award for New England, but if Welker keeps up this pace, he's going to get more votes than some of the other listed players.
Not that it likely matters if the Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers keeps raising the bar.
Brace Hemmelgarn/US PresswireAaron Rodgers accounted for six touchdowns in the Packers' Week 4 win over Denver."That's a no-brainer," he said from the Arizona Cardinals' locker room this week. "Is it even close right now?"
Not really.
Aaron Rodgers tightened his grip on the top spot by becoming the first player in NFL history with at least 400 yards passing, four passing touchdowns and two rushing scores in the same game. By comparison, the entire Jacksonville Jaguars team has 550 yards passing, two passing touchdowns and one rushing score in its first four games.
Tom Brady remains the biggest threat to Rodgers for the long term, but the Detroit Lions' Matthew Stafford has gained ground.
"If the Patriots didn't lose one game, you might say Tom, but Aaron is playing lights out," Fitzgerald said. "And they're kind of doing it under the radar, too. It's as under the radar as you can be as a Super Bowl champion. You don't see them all over ESPN. You just see them going about their business."
Fitzgerald pointed to the Lions' Calvin Johnson as the wide receiver most likely to break the quarterback-running back stranglehold on MVP honors. And he said the Baltimore Ravens' Ed Reed and the Dallas Cowboys' DeMarcus Ware have the potential to make a run at MVP from the defensive side.
"Ed Reed is as important to that Ravens defense as a good quarterback is to any team," Fitzgerald said. "He has been playing great."
There wasn't quite room for defensive representation on the list this week. The Lions' Johnson joined Eli Manning and Philip Rivers as new from last week, pushing aside Buffalo's Fred Jackson, Dallas' Tony Romo and Houston's Matt Schaub. Jackson has not exceeded 74 yards in his past two games. Schaub's status took a hit with Andre Johnson's injury, and it was tougher finding room for teammate Arian Foster after the Texans' backup running back, Ben Tate, produced so well when Foster was out.
Now might be a good time to rethink Michael Vick.
The case against his ascension into the Philadelphia Eagles' lineup grows weaker by the start. The case against his MVP candidacy discounts the Eagles' Vick-led victories over Detroit and Jacksonville. The case against Vick says one losing performance in relief and two starts against weak teams proves little.
But the case against Vick gets harder to make with every pass he delivers well downfield with laser-guided precision. He looks terrific so far.
Vick ranks tied for third behind Jay Cutler and Peyton Manning in pass plays of at least 30 yards, helping the Eagles maximize what DeSean Jackson offers to their offense. Vick's third-down passer rating is 122.6, putting him behind only Matt Ryan (132.3) in that category. And his fourth-quarter rating (97.7) ranks sixth.
For the first time, the case for Vick rests on what he's doing with his arm, but his legs still appear fresh as well. That makes him a unique talent and a legitimate MVP candidate until the evidence suggests otherwise.
The case against his ascension into the Philadelphia Eagles' lineup grows weaker by the start. The case against his MVP candidacy discounts the Eagles' Vick-led victories over Detroit and Jacksonville. The case against Vick says one losing performance in relief and two starts against weak teams proves little.
But the case against Vick gets harder to make with every pass he delivers well downfield with laser-guided precision. He looks terrific so far.
Vick ranks tied for third behind Jay Cutler and Peyton Manning in pass plays of at least 30 yards, helping the Eagles maximize what DeSean Jackson offers to their offense. Vick's third-down passer rating is 122.6, putting him behind only Matt Ryan (132.3) in that category. And his fourth-quarter rating (97.7) ranks sixth.
For the first time, the case for Vick rests on what he's doing with his arm, but his legs still appear fresh as well. That makes him a unique talent and a legitimate MVP candidate until the evidence suggests otherwise.
Six sacks in two games should be enough for the Green Bay Packers’ Clay Matthews to earn a spot on the MVP Watch list.
It was, but only if I removed someone with better long-term prospects for the award. Matthews’ teammate, Aaron Rodgers, became the odd man out.
Matthews is the first Packers player with 3.0 sacks in consecutive games -- and the NFL's first since Patrick Kerney did it in 2007 -- but the three-sack game isn’t particularly special by itself. Lots of players have had more. But if Matthews averages even 1.0 sack per game from here on out, he would join an exclusive short list of players with at least 20 in a season since sacks became an official stat.
Michael Strahan, Mark Gastineau, Chris Doleman, Reggie White, Lawrence Taylor, Derrick Thomas and DeMarcus Ware. Of the seven, only Taylor won MVP honors.
It was, but only if I removed someone with better long-term prospects for the award. Matthews’ teammate, Aaron Rodgers, became the odd man out.
Matthews is the first Packers player with 3.0 sacks in consecutive games -- and the NFL's first since Patrick Kerney did it in 2007 -- but the three-sack game isn’t particularly special by itself. Lots of players have had more. But if Matthews averages even 1.0 sack per game from here on out, he would join an exclusive short list of players with at least 20 in a season since sacks became an official stat.
Michael Strahan, Mark Gastineau, Chris Doleman, Reggie White, Lawrence Taylor, Derrick Thomas and DeMarcus Ware. Of the seven, only Taylor won MVP honors.
Chris Johnson is up, Brett Favre is down and Donovan McNabb is out since the final MVP Watch from last season.
The initial list for 2010 overlooks defense entirely, with good reason. Lawrence Taylor was the last defensive player to win the award and that was 24 years ago. Some of the leading defensive candidates from last season -- Elvis Dumervil and Darren Sharper come to mind -- are dealing with injuries.
Peyton Manning could win the award every season. There isn't a surer bet in the league. He's reached 4,000 yards passing nine times in the past 10 seasons and his teams have averaged 12.7 victories over the past seven. What more could anyone want from an MVP candidate?
Answer: another 2,000-yard rushing season from Johnson, this time with a winning record for the Tennessee Titans.
Johnson was the sixth player in NFL history to reach the milestone, but the first to do so for a team with a non-winning record. O.J. Simpson (1973), Barry Sanders (1997) Terrell Davis (1998) won MVP awards (Sanders shared his with Favre). Eric Dickerson (1984) lost out to Dan Marino. Jamal Lewis (2003) watched Manning and Steve McNair share the award. Manning beat out Johnson last season.
A look at some of the favorites heading into the 2010 season ...
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Jeff Hanisch/US PresswirePeyton Manning has thrown for 4,000 yards in 10 of his 12 NFL seasons.
Jeff Hanisch/US PresswirePeyton Manning has thrown for 4,000 yards in 10 of his 12 NFL seasons.Peyton Manning could win the award every season. There isn't a surer bet in the league. He's reached 4,000 yards passing nine times in the past 10 seasons and his teams have averaged 12.7 victories over the past seven. What more could anyone want from an MVP candidate?
Answer: another 2,000-yard rushing season from Johnson, this time with a winning record for the Tennessee Titans.
Johnson was the sixth player in NFL history to reach the milestone, but the first to do so for a team with a non-winning record. O.J. Simpson (1973), Barry Sanders (1997) Terrell Davis (1998) won MVP awards (Sanders shared his with Favre). Eric Dickerson (1984) lost out to Dan Marino. Jamal Lewis (2003) watched Manning and Steve McNair share the award. Manning beat out Johnson last season.
A look at some of the favorites heading into the 2010 season ...
Peyton Manning should win his second consecutive and fourth overall MVP award Saturday.
His Colts have won the past 23 games Manning started and finished. My perception was that Manning's stats weren't off the charts by his standards this season, and to a degree that is true. He tossed 16 interceptions, Manning's highest total since 2002. But after taking into account the 14-0 record Indianapolis posted to open the season, consider these statistical milestones:
I can hear the protests already.
"Peyton Manning stays at the top because why?" Eric from Chicago wrote during an ESPN.com chat Tuesday. "Because he only played hard in 14 games? Because he played a half against the Jets and then the Colts lost? Because they lost to Buffalo when he started? How is that possible when Chris Johnson became only the 6th person in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards, or for Brett Favre and/or Aaron Rodgers to throw for half the INTs Peyton did. Doesn't make sense, does it? Didn't think so!"
Chris Johnson? Put him on the list, sure, but put him over Manning? Not happening.
"I put Chris Johnson in the conversation because he had a terrific year," my in-chat reply read. "How valuable could he have been? His team started 0-6 and missed the playoffs. How many running backs are leading their teams to glory right now? It's a passing league. Carolina had two 1,000-yard rushers and what did it get the Panthers? Steven Jackson led the NFC in rushing for the 1-15 Rams. Frank Gore had his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season and fourth consecutive season without the playoffs. Peyton Manning is multiple times more valuable than any running back in the league."
Manning was usually the difference during those seven fourth-quarter comeback victories. And he was 14-0 when management forced him to shut it down.
This was a fairly easy call for me. We'll see if MVP voters agree.
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Scott A. Miller/US PresswirePeyton Manning looks to be in line for his fourth MVP award.
Scott A. Miller/US PresswirePeyton Manning looks to be in line for his fourth MVP award.- Manning completed 68.8 percent of his passes, a career high.
- Manning passed for 4,500 yards, the second-highest total of his career.
- Manning completed 59 passes of at least 20 yards, the second-highest total of his career.
- Manning tossed 33 touchdown passes, tying the second-highest total of his career.
- Manning took a career-low 10 sacks despite attempting 571 passes, tied for the second-most attempts of his career.
- The Colts set an NFL record with seven fourth-quarter comeback victories.
I can hear the protests already.
"Peyton Manning stays at the top because why?" Eric from Chicago wrote during an ESPN.com chat Tuesday. "Because he only played hard in 14 games? Because he played a half against the Jets and then the Colts lost? Because they lost to Buffalo when he started? How is that possible when Chris Johnson became only the 6th person in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards, or for Brett Favre and/or Aaron Rodgers to throw for half the INTs Peyton did. Doesn't make sense, does it? Didn't think so!"
Chris Johnson? Put him on the list, sure, but put him over Manning? Not happening.
"I put Chris Johnson in the conversation because he had a terrific year," my in-chat reply read. "How valuable could he have been? His team started 0-6 and missed the playoffs. How many running backs are leading their teams to glory right now? It's a passing league. Carolina had two 1,000-yard rushers and what did it get the Panthers? Steven Jackson led the NFC in rushing for the 1-15 Rams. Frank Gore had his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season and fourth consecutive season without the playoffs. Peyton Manning is multiple times more valuable than any running back in the league."
Manning was usually the difference during those seven fourth-quarter comeback victories. And he was 14-0 when management forced him to shut it down.
This was a fairly easy call for me. We'll see if MVP voters agree.

Who tops your ballot for NFL MVP heading into Week 17? Consider the candidates and submit your rankings for NFL MVP honors. 
Few quarterbacks could turn Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie into prime-time performers. Manning made it look easy at times.
Perceptions suggest Brees dropped off late in the season, and he did to a degree. But he wasn't the reason New Orleans lost a couple of games. Brees definitely enjoyed an MVP-caliber season.
Rivers might have been the MVP in the end if the season had extended a few more weeks. Led the NFL in yards per attempt while throwing only nine interceptions.
Finished second to Brees in TD passes and passer rating. Averaged 7.92 yards per attempt, the highest figure for his career. Helped get the most out of the Vikings' young receivers. Was clearly the primary reason for the Vikings' success.
Earned a place in the MVP conversation with a 2,000-yard season, but it's tough to recognize a player whose team misses the playoffs. Finished with 590 more yards than No. 2 rusher Steven Jackson.
Late push left him with more yards in a season than Favre ever managed in Green Bay. One of four quarterbacks to average at least 8.2 yards per attempt. Only Brees, Favre and Rivers had higher passer ratings.
Finished third in passing yards while becoming a more resilient competitor and leading the Cowboys to the NFC East title. One of four quarterbacks with at least 25 TD passes and fewer than 10 INTs. Last Week: 8
Overcame injuries old and new to lead the Patriots to the AFC East title. Finished tied for sixth in TD passes. Probably underappreciated because of the standard he set in 2007.
Made the most of his young receivers and became a home-run threat with the deep ball. One of eight quarterbacks to average at least 8.0 yards per attempt.
