NFC West: MVP Watch 09

Mike Sando's MVP Watch

January, 6, 2010
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Peyton Manning should win his second consecutive and fourth overall MVP award Saturday.

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Peyton Manning
Scott A. Miller/US PresswirePeyton Manning looks to be in line for his fourth MVP award.
His Colts have won the past 23 games Manning started and finished. My perception was that Manning's stats weren't off the charts by his standards this season, and to a degree that is true. He tossed 16 interceptions, Manning's highest total since 2002. But after taking into account the 14-0 record Indianapolis posted to open the season, consider these statistical milestones:
  • Manning completed 68.8 percent of his passes, a career high.
  • Manning passed for 4,500 yards, the second-highest total of his career.
  • Manning completed 59 passes of at least 20 yards, the second-highest total of his career.
  • Manning tossed 33 touchdown passes, tying the second-highest total of his career.
  • Manning took a career-low 10 sacks despite attempting 571 passes, tied for the second-most attempts of his career.
  • The Colts set an NFL record with seven fourth-quarter comeback victories.
Drew Brees, Philip Rivers and Brett Favre also deserved consideration. Their teams won big during the regular season. Manning wasn't always as flashy as the other candidates, but he was easily the most important player on the most impressive team.

I can hear the protests already.

"Peyton Manning stays at the top because why?" Eric from Chicago wrote during an ESPN.com chat Tuesday. "Because he only played hard in 14 games? Because he played a half against the Jets and then the Colts lost? Because they lost to Buffalo when he started? How is that possible when Chris Johnson became only the 6th person in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards, or for Brett Favre and/or Aaron Rodgers to throw for half the INTs Peyton did. Doesn't make sense, does it? Didn't think so!"

Chris Johnson? Put him on the list, sure, but put him over Manning? Not happening.

"I put Chris Johnson in the conversation because he had a terrific year," my in-chat reply read. "How valuable could he have been? His team started 0-6 and missed the playoffs. How many running backs are leading their teams to glory right now? It's a passing league. Carolina had two 1,000-yard rushers and what did it get the Panthers? Steven Jackson led the NFC in rushing for the 1-15 Rams. Frank Gore had his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season and fourth consecutive season without the playoffs. Peyton Manning is multiple times more valuable than any running back in the league."

Manning was usually the difference during those seven fourth-quarter comeback victories. And he was 14-0 when management forced him to shut it down.

This was a fairly easy call for me. We'll see if MVP voters agree.

Mike Sando's MVP Watch

December, 30, 2009
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Defense doesn't always win NFL championships. It almost never wins MVP awards.

The MVP Watch list after Week 16 reflects this reality.

This is realistically a two-man race between Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. Philip Rivers, Brett Favre and Chris Johnson might have a shot at siphoning off a few votes.

But in a league where offense is king, defensive players fall by the wayside. Lawrence Taylor was the last defender to earn MVP honors, and that was 23 years ago. Current sack leader Elvis Dumervil might have had an outside chance if the Broncos had kept winning and Dumervil had kept up his early pace (8.0 sacks through four games, 10.0 through six).

Manning's chances grew with every Colts victory, including quite a few close ones in which quarterback play made the difference. While the team's decision to rest Manning and other starters did not hurt Indianapolis in our most recent power rankings, it might hurt Manning among MVP voters. An undefeated season would have differentiated Manning from all other candidates, notably Brees.

But the manner in which Indy finally lost -- only after Manning left the game -- again demonstrated Manning's value.

He looks like the favorite.

Mike Sando's MVP Watch

December, 23, 2009
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Brett Favre is falling fast on the MVP Watch list.

The Vikings have lost two of three and Favre has been acting his age. The three-time MVP went to grade school in the '70s -- and that's where his passer rating has been stuck since Week 13.

If this keeps up, Brad Childress might need to remove Favre from consideration. For his own protection, of course.

Favre dropped three spots to sixth on our list, his lowest position since ranking seventh in Week 7.

Peyton Manning overtook Drew Brees for the top spot. Manning had 138 points to Brees' 137 when editor Brett Longdin scored MVP Watch balloting for the season (10 points for ranking first, nine for ranking second, etc.).

Brees has the flashier numbers, but Manning will be tough to ignore if the Colts finish 16-0. His 33 touchdown passes mark Manning's highest single-season total since he threw 49 in 2004. He threw 33 in 2000, his second-highest total before this season.

Both players have taken a similar number of sacks over the past two seasons (32 for Brees, 27 for Manning), but Manning has not lost a fumble since 2007. Brees has lost six this season, including one that killed the Saints' chances against Dallas in Week 15.

It's another stat to keep in mind when deciding which player has been most valuable in 2009.

Mike Sando's MVP Watch

December, 16, 2009
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Go ahead and pencil in Drew Brees, Peyton Manning or both for MVP honors this season.

Their stat lines and combined 26-0 starting record separate them from all challengers.

That leaves Philip Rivers on the outside even though he's playing like an MVP for San Diego. Rivers hasn't thrown as many touchdown passes as some of the other candidates, but he has also avoided costly mistakes despite playing in an aggressive passing offense.

Rivers has yet to throw more interceptions than touchdown passes in a game this season.

None of the other top passers can make that claim.

Brees had a three-pick, one-touchdown game against the Dolphins. Manning had a two-pick, one-touchdown game against the Ravens. Brett Favre had a one-pick, no-touchdown game against the Steelers. Aaron Rodgers had a three-pick, two-touchdown game against the Bucs.

And so on.

Rivers' consistency and the Chargers' winning streak move him into the periphery of the MVP discussion -- quite an accomplishment given the stellar nature of the competition.

Mike Sando's MVP Watch

December, 9, 2009
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A recent Cardinals news release announcing Kurt Warner as the NFC's offensive player of the week carried an improbable historical revelation.

With his latest stellar performance, Warner joined Johnny Unitas as the only players in NFL history to post four consecutive games with a passer rating of 120 or higher.

Warner plays in a passing age, but the link to Unitas gave the feat a timeless quality.

The Pro Football Hall of Fame features 23 modern-era quarterbacks with surnames familiar to fans of any generation. Playing the position well requires more than glossy stats, of course, but most Hall of Fame quarterbacks have put up staggering numbers at some point in their careers.

Warner has a chance to extend his streak to five games when he faces the 49ers on "Monday Night Football" in Week 14. Warner posted a 121.9 rating in his most recent MNF game (last season, also against the 49ers).

While Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Brett Favre have dominated the MVP Watch list this season, Warner and Philip Rivers deserve more prominence in the conversation.

Rivers has won seven consecutive starts. Warner has posted a 7-1 record in his last eight.

Rivers has arguably been hotter than Warner over the last month. In his last four games, Rivers has completed 76 percent of his passes for 1,066 yards with seven touchdowns, no interceptions and a 133.2 rating.

Mike Sando's MVP Watch

December, 2, 2009
12/02/09
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Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots could not stop Drew Brees.

The weekly MVP Watch list stood no chance, either.

Brees' pinpoint accuracy even on long passes sent me flipping through data from ESPN Stats & Information for some sort of quantitative measure. Sure enough, it was there. Brees is the only quarterback in the league completing at least half his passes on throws traveling longer than 20 yards in the air.

The 38-yard touchdown pass Brees threw to Robert Meacham against New England couldn't have been placed any more accurately.

Brees' perfect passer rating for the game and the Saints' dominant victory against a winning team reordered the MVP Watch list at the top. Brees jumped from third to first, with Brett Favre and Peyton Manning each moving down one spot.

The NFL has not had co-MVPs since Manning and Steve McNair shared the award following the 2003 season.

Brees and Favre appear worthy at this point in the 2009 season (although the Titans' Chris Johnson might have something to say about that).

Favre has completed 70 percent of his passes for 1,193 yards, 12 touchdowns and no interceptions over his last four games. Brees is completing 69.9 percent with 1,111 yards, 11 touchdowns and three picks over the same stretch.

Favre draws Arizona in a nationally televised game Sunday night, a week after the Cardinals watched Tennessee's Vince Young pass for a career-high 387 yards against their defense. Brees draws a Redskins defense that has allowed only 11 touchdown passes all season.

Week 13 might offer an MVP opening for Manning if he can end the Titans' winning streak. Manning completed a season-high 81.8 percent of his passes for 309 yards and three touchdowns against Tennessee in Week 5.

Mike Sando's MVP Watch

November, 25, 2009
11/25/09
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Brett Favre assumes the top spot on the MVP Watch list after turning a good team into a championship-caliber one.

The Vikings are 9-1 and gaining momentum.

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Brett Favre
Jeff Hanisch/US PresswireBrett Favre has thrown just three interceptions in 310 pass attempts this season.
Favre has matched Peyton Manning with 21 touchdown passes, one off Drew Brees' league-leading total. Favre has six fewer interceptions than Manning or Brees while joining them among an elite list of quarterbacks averaging at least 8 yards per pass attempt.

Favre's ascension into the top spot after Week 11 sent me back through comments from the Sept. 23 edition -- the first one featuring Favre in any capacity (he was then eighth).

"Are you kidding me, take Favre off the list!" vman112012 wrote. "What has he done so far to warrant any mentioning? Adrian Peterson is the one carrying that offense."

The point had some merit and vman112012 was not alone.

"This love affair with Favre is absolutely out of control," Sphinn wrote. "Hey ESPN, the '90s have been over for almost a decade!"

Right. As if I automatically fell in love with Favre upon joining ESPN a couple of years ago. Hey, I was the guy who thought the Vikings were selling their souls for a washed-up quarterback. Favre, after all, had thrown more touchdowns than interceptions just once in his four most recent seasons.

"When he leads a fourth-quarter come back drive to win the game," xpollolocox wrote, "then we can say he got them that one extra win that makes them better than last year."

Four days later, Favre threw the winning touchdown pass against the 49ers in the final seconds, the most spectacular play by a quarterback this season.

The legend was reborn at age 39, and now 40. He has only gained momentum in the subsequent weeks. No full-time quarterback in the league can match his passer rating (112.1).

When Rams safety Oshiomogho Atogwe rated the Vikings over the Colts and Saints among teams he had faced, I asked him for his MVP vote.

"Right now, I would have to give it to Brett Favre just because the Minnesota Vikings were not a clear-cut contender for the Super Bowl last year," Atogwe said. "They are now, and I think that largely has to do with the arrival of Brett Favre and him really being able to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers. He is also doing a great job taking care of the football."

Mike Sando's MVP Watch

November, 18, 2009
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Measuring Peyton Manning's value can be easy.

Take one look at his contract. It's counting more than $21 million against the team's salary cap this season.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick provided another measurement tool during the Colts' 35-34 victory over New England. His decision to go for it on fourth-and-2 from the New England 29 while protecting a 34-28 lead reflected quite a few things, including Manning's value when it matters most -- with the ball in his hands late in a game.

Yes, Belichick was showing faith in Tom Brady to pick up 2 yards with the game on the line.

We can debate whether Belichick showed too little confidence in his defense, but the other side of the argument says he showed too much.

On Manning, we can all agree. There is no good time for an opponent to put the ball in his hands. Belichick's gambit only reinforced my decision to move Manning back into the No. 1 spot in the weekly MVP Watch.

Worthy candidates come and go from the list each week. Here are 10 I couldn't overlook heading into Week 11:

Mike Sando's MVP Watch

November, 11, 2009
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Thirty-four quarterbacks, 17 running backs, two defensive players and one kicker have won MVP honors in the NFL since 1957.

Past MVPs (as awarded annually by the Associated Press) played for teams that won 79.6 percent of their games, or an average of 12.7 games won over a 16-game schedule.

Each of the 54 MVPs and co-MVPs played for a winning team.

The 1997 Detroit Lions (9-7, .563) are the only team to produce an MVP without winning at least 62.5 percent of their games (Barry Sanders shared MVP honors with Brett Favre that season).

Quarterbacks have won seven of the last nine MVP awards playing for teams that won 12.9 games on average (median was 12 victories). Quarterbacks and running backs have won the last 24 MVP awards since Lawrence Taylor prevailed following the 1986 season.

These are a few things to keep in mind when wondering why quarterbacks and running backs dominate the latest MVP Watch list even though some others might be enjoying more impressive individual seasons.

Mailbag: MVP Watch slighting Favre?

November, 5, 2009
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Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando

Gail from North Richland Hills, Texas, writes: Some reasons why Brett Favre is MVP hands down: He's playing with guys he's never played with, new receivers, new offensive lineman, never taken a snap with the center, new coaches, new plays, a rookie wide receiver, no training camp, very little preseason, shoulder surgery, has had three come-from-behind victories, had to keep coming back after the defense let down in both Green Bay games, played two emotional games against his former team, has fewer interceptions than Manning and Brees and two were on deflected passes. Last year, when Manning won MVP , several reporters said it was because he was coming off surgery and had no preseason. Favre has had way more adversity to overcome.

Mike Sando: You don't know how close I came to moving Favre into that No. 1 spot in the latest MVP Watch. He has shocked me this season. I thought he was close to finished after the way things went down last season, to the point that I didn't like the Vikings' chances after they held open a spot for him. It just seemed unlikely for a 40-year-old waffling quarterback to assimilate seamlessly while playing at a high level and avoiding some of the impulsive mistakes he had made in past seasons. Favre had thrown more touchdowns than interceptions only once in his previous four seasons. He now has 16 touchdowns with only three interceptions. Unreal.

The obstacles you pointed to absolutely enhance his credentials. Watch out, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. Favre could be gaining on you.


Richard from Huntingdon Valley, Pa., writes: Hey Sando, go back to the boonies in Seattle. Tony Romo for MVP? Are you kidding me? How do you not even mention DeSean Jackson in the mix? Let me know when Romo wins one big game in his life. You guys are so freaking biased towards Dallas it's pathetic. Your network constantly sets new lows for knowledge of any sport. Just keep covering the Yankees, Red Sox, Cowboys and Brett Favre.

Mike Sando: The very first mailbag item I ever received ripped me for daring to rank the Cowboys too low in a preseason ranking. People who automatically assume some sort of bias really aren't bringing anything to the table. Whether or not Romo has won a big game in his life has nothing to do with where he stands in this conversation through Week 8. The NFL values quarterbacks over receivers for a reason. They are more important. That is why they earn more money. Jackson is a terrific talent. He is also on pace for 55 receptions, less than half as many as Reggie Wayne.

Check out past MVP winners. Lots of quarterbacks and running backs on that list. Not many wide receivers with 55 receptions.


Jason from Atlanta writes: How can you drop Peyton Manning a spot on the MVP chart just for not throwing a touchdown last game? Manning still threw for 350 yards and no interceptions in that game. Drew Brees has two games he didnt throw for a touchdown and has five turnovers in his last two games.

Mike Sando: What's this, a well-reasoned argument in the MVP debate? It's much appreciated. Manning and Brees have gone back and forth atop the list. I think both are worthy. The Saints became my No. 1 team in the power rankings this week and that was one reason I gave Brees a slight edge. There's lots of time for this to play out.


Kevin from Chicago writes: How is Carson Palmer not in your Top 10? A healthy Palmer has the Bengals right back in contention. He has led the Bengals on several fourth-quarter, game-winning drives. a primary characteristic of an MVP. Most notably, overcoming a two-touchdown deficit to knock off the defending Super Bowl champs. What has Aaron Rodgers done this year to deserve consideration? He should not even be in the MVP discussion at this point.

Mike Sando: I nearly added Palmer to the list last week after his five-touchdown game. Cedric Benson was the Bengals player I considered more strongly because he was leading the NFL in rushing. Palmer had eight touchdowns with seven interceptions heading into that five-touchdown game. You're right that he should be in the conversation. His stats haven't quite been there this season and I do think those matter.


Mike from parts unknown writes: How can you rank Tom Brady over Matt Schaub when Schaub leads him in every statistic? Brady might have one less game, but he has almost the same attempts. And how in the world is Romo on the list and McNabb not? McNabb is fifth in passer rating and has a 9-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Mike Sando: Brady is averaging more touchdowns per game and fewer interceptions per game than Schaub. That would be one reason. McNabb opened the season on the MVP Watch list and I did consider adding him to the mix this time. It's just that McNabb has played in only five games and he has about half as many passing yards as Romo to this point. Keep an eye on McNabb, though. I do like his chances as the season progresses.


Kyle from San Antonio writes: One bad game and Kyle Orton is totally off the list? And Aaron Rodgers is on? I don't see it.

Mike Sando: Careful or someone might accuse you of being biased in favor of guys named Kyle.


Brad from Indianapolis writes: Are you crazy? Manning's arrow is down in the MVP Watch? The only number not equal to or better than Drew Brees is TD passes and he's only 1 behind. I can understand the No. 2 ranking given the Saints are having a great year ... but to put his rating down is just weird. Even without a TD pass in the Niner game, he still hit huge throws throughout the game. Finally, if Brees had the running game that Peyton has behind him, think how the Saints would be defended differently.

Mike Sando: The downward arrow only signifies where the player has moved since the previous week. Manning went from No. 1 to No. 2. He automatically received the downward arrow. It's very close at the top. Moving a guy from No. 1 to No. 2 doesn't reflect a lack of respect. It's not personal.


Dan from Fort Wayne, Ind., writes: You do realize Drew Brees has two games without throwing a touchdown, correct? I don't understand your logic dropping Manning if your reason is that he went one game without throwing a touchdown. May want to reword that.

Mike Sando: The comments associated with players on the list do not explain my full reasoning. It's a fluid list. Players can move around based on whether they had a bye that week, whether their team performed at a higher or lower level that week, whether they failed to throw a touchdown pass that week, etc.

Mike Sando's MVP Watch

November, 4, 2009
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Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando

Brett Favre's departure from the Packers and eventual arrival in Minnesota has helped both teams.

The Vikings' success with Favre makes his departure to a division rival a net loss for Green Bay, of course, but several statistical measures for quarterbacks favor Aaron Rodgers through Week 8.

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And it's tough to imagine a 40-year-old quarterback -- even one as resilient as Favre -- thriving behind Green Bay's current offensive line.

Rodgers leads the NFL in third-down passing (141.1 rating) among quarterbacks with at least 20 attempts, and few players utilize the whole field so ably. Rogers leads the league when throwing outside the numbers, connecting for eight touchdowns with a 117.4 rating.

The Packers lead the NFL in pass completions covering at least 30 yards. The Vikings rank tied for second with only one fewer.

Favre gets the edge on the MVP Watch list because his team is 7-1 and his addition has transformed the Vikings into legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Rodgers earns a place on the list because his production should not be overlooked.

1. DREW BREES
QB | New Orleans Saints (Last Week: 2)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
157 230 2,006 68.3 8.72 66 16 6 11 107.6
Leads the league in TD passes per game while ranking third in yards per attempt for an undefeated team.

2. PEYTON MANNING
QB | Indianapolis Colts (Last Week: 1)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
187 263 2,227 71.1 8.47 80 15 4 5 109.3
Slips one spot in the MVP Watch after failing to throw a TD pass for the first time this season.

3. BRETT FAVRE
QB | Minnesota Vikings (Last Week: 7)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
174 256 1,925 68.0 7.52 63 16 3 18 106.0
On pace for 32 TDs with only six INTs for one of the best teams in the NFL. Consider his legacy enhanced.

4. BEN ROETHLISBERGER
QB | Pittsburgh Steelers (Last Week: 3)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
164 233 2,062 70.4 8.85 52 11 6 19 102.6
Has completed 25 of 29 passes for 421 yards with five TDs, no INTs and a perfect 158.3 rating on play action.

5. TOM BRADY
QB | New England Patriots (Last Week: 4)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
179 273 2,032 65.6 7.44 54 15 4 8 99.9
Quietly remains only one TD pass off the league lead despite playing one fewer game than two of the three QBs ahead of him.

6. MATT SCHAUB
QB | Houston Texans (Last Week: 10)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
188 283 2,342 66.4 8.28 72 16 7 14 100.5
Leads the league in passing yards and ranks sixth in yards per attempt, but must adjust without Owen Daniels.

7. TONY ROMO
QB | Dallas Cowboys (Last Week: NR)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
138 230 1,908 60.0 8.30 80 12 4 13 96.8
Has completed 62 of 99 passes for 918 yards with eight TDs, no INTs and 119.8 rating during three-game winning streak.

8. AARON RODGERS
QB | Green Bay Packers (Last Week: 9)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
147 225 1,989 65.3 8.84 71 14 2 31 110.4
Leads the league in third-down passing and passing against added pressure among QBs with at least 20 attempts.

9. JARED ALLEN
DE | Minnesota Vikings (Last Week: NR)
2009 TACKLES MISC.
TOT SOLO AST SACK STF STFY FF BK
34 28 6 10.5 5 12 3 0
Moved past the Broncos' Elvis Dumervil for the NFL lead in sacks. Has a safety, three forced fumbles and one TD.

10. REGGIE WAYNE
WR | Indianapolis Colts (Last Week: NR)
2009 RECEIVING 2009 RUSHING
REC YDS AVG LNG TD ATT YDS AVG LNG TD
51 689 13.5 39 6 0 0 0.0 0 0
On pace to catch 117 passes for 1,575 yards and 14 TDs this season. Unstoppable even when Joseph Addai is throwing.

Mike Sando's MVP Watch

October, 28, 2009
10/28/09
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Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando

Style points affect the MVP Watch list only to a degree.

Rank 'Em: MVP Candidates
How do you size up the NFL MVP race? Drew Brees and Peyton Manning continue piling up wins and touchdowns at a tremendous pace. Who is the best player in the NFL?
Cast your vote
Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger weren't always pretty in Week 7, but they did what legitimate MVP candidates do in leading their teams to victory.

Both rank among the NFL's statistical leaders and their teams have won a combined 10 consecutive games.

In fact, the top six figures on the MVP Watch list this week play for teams that have won a combined 25 in a row.

I also found room on the list this week for Aaron Rodgers and Matt Schaub, who might have been overlooked a week ago. Brett Favre slipped a few spots, but I also wondered whether that phantom tripping call against the Vikings might have short-circuited a potential comeback. We'll never know.

1. PEYTON MANNING
QB | Indianapolis Colts (Last Week: 1)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
156 215 1,880 72.6 8.74 80 15 4 2 114.5
Completing 73.8 percent of his passes with 13 TDs and 117.4 rating against standard pressure.

2. DREW BREES
QB | New Orleans Saints (Last Week: 2)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
132 197 1,698 67.0 8.62 66 14 5 9 106.9
Has 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions when passing inside the red zone this season.

3. BEN ROETHLISBERGER
QB | Pittsburgh Steelers (Last Week: 7)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
164 233 2,062 70.4 8.85 52 11 6 19 102.6
Already has more completions covering 40-plus yards (eight) than he had last season (seven).

4. TOM BRADY
QB | New England Patriots (Last Week: 4)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
179 273 2,032 65.6 7.44 54 15 4 8 99.9
Has 688 yards and nine TD passes in his last two games. Thank you, Bucs and Titans.

5. KYLE ORTON
QB | Denver Broncos (Last Week: 5)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
124 194 1,465 63.9 7.55 87 9 1 9 100.1
Only Orton and Brett Favre have at least four TD passes without an interception vs. added pressure.

6. CEDRIC BENSON
RB | Cincinnati Bengals (Last Week: NR)
2009 RUSHING 2009 RECEIVING
ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD
164 720 4.4 28 5 10 66 6.6 19 0
Within 27 yards of matching his career single-season high for rushing yards.

7. BRETT FAVRE
QB | Minnesota Vikings (Last Week: 3)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
158 229 1,681 69.0 7.34 63 12 3 18 102.2
Did a fantastic finish elude Favre when officials invented that tripping call to wipe out a TD at Pittsburgh?

8. ELVIS DUMERVIL
DE | Denver Broncos (Last Week: 8)
2009 TACKLES MISC.
TOT SOLO AST SACK STF STFY FF BK
23 22 1 10.0 0 0 2 0
The bye week slowed him only temporarily. Ten sacks in six games is crazy.

9. AARON RODGERS
QB | Green Bay Packers (Last Week: NR)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
121 184 1,702 65.8 9.25 71 11 2 25 110.8
On pace for 30 TD passes and 5 INTs over a full season. Another 4,000-yard season likely.

10. MATT SCHAUB
QB | Houston Texans (Last Week: NR)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
163 249 2,074 65.5 8.33 72 16 5 12 104.4
Has already set a career high for TD passes in a season. Averaging 296 yards per game.
Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando

James from New Orleans writes: So, you have Peyton Manning over Drew Brees right now for MVP. I just wanted to point out a few things. The defenses Manning has faced have given up an average of 257.5 passing yards per game (the three worst pass defenses in the league). These defenses are allowing an average passer rating of 97.5. The defenses Brees has faced have given up an average of 189.3 passing yards per game (four of the top eight pass defenses in the league). These defenses are allowing an average passer rating of 76.1.

Now, if you look strictly at the numbers of Brees and Manning, Drew has a higher passer rating, more TDs, and fewer INTs. Peyton has more yards, and three more nationally televised games thus far. And I think more people would take Reggie Wayne over the Marques Colston, and more people would prefer Dallas Clark to Jeremy Shockey. Peyton stole an MVP award away from Brees last year because the Saints didn't make the playoffs. If both make it this year, he better not steal another one.

Mike Sando: There can be no good case against Manning or Brees. You make a great case for Brees and I take it to heart.

Don't sell the Saints' receivers short, though. I watched every snap of Giants-Saints and those New Orleans receivers were catching everything. Brees was threading the ball through impossibly small windows and receivers were making the grabs, even on a tipped ball in one case.

The Saints look really, really good on both sides of the ball. Brees is in total command. His pass protection is good, too.

I thought Manning's performance in leading the Colts to victory over the Dolphins against seemingly impossible odds qualified as a unique performance in the NFL this season, but I also had Brees atop the MVP Watch for a couple of weeks. Both are special players and I'm open to moving Brees back up there.


Nick from Racine, Wis., writes: Can you please explain to me how you have Jay Cutler at No. 9 over Aaron Rodgers? Rodgers has better numbers in every category while playing without an offensive line, and the teams have the same record with the Packers beating the Bears head to head. I could understand Matt Schaub being higher than Rodgers on your list, but Cutler? Just no.

Mike Sando: I have a feeling we'll see Rodgers back on the MVP Watch list soon. He's terrific and I respect his game. Cutler has the victory over Pittsburgh on his resume and his team is 3-1 in its last four. Rodgers is 2-2 over his last four with victories over the Rams and Lions.


Chris from Newport, R.I., writes: Ben Roethlisberger drops to No. 7? Are you watching him at all -- especially this year? Besides the errant pass, the man is incredible. You don't believe it? Maybe you should look at his numbers -- even for his career, not this year only. Or just keep him at your spot in this ridiculous Top 10, and I'll watch him compile wins for the next decade. Realize you're watching greatness.

Mike Sando: There's no shame in ranking seventh on this list.


Kevin from Pittsburgh writes: Mike, I can understand Drew Brees and Peyton Manning, but how on earth do you have Big Ben so far down on your list? If you look at total body of work as an MVP for a team, he should be at the top of the list. If you look at the numbers, he is one or two higher than Tom Brady at four. Sorry to say it, Brett Farve isn't even the MVP on his own team. It is still the Beast, Adrian Peterson. Would like to know what you base your decisions on?

Mike Sando: I might like to see a little better touchdown-to-interception ratio, but that could be picking nits. There are probably 12 to 14 players I'd like to include among the 10 each week. You can bet Roethlisberger will charge up the list once he leads the Steelers over the Vikings, Broncos and Bengals in Pittsburgh's next three games. That will be more impressive than beating the Lions and Browns.


Kyle from Omaha writes: Why isn't Aaron Rodgers being even mentioned? His stats are comparable to every other quaterback on the list. Also, the Packers are 3-2 and according to you, a winning record means a lot.

Mike Sando: That was an oversight on my part. I should have mentioned Rodgers along with Schaub and Joe Flacco as guys deserving honorable mention. I could make a case for all three to be on the list, but the limit is 10 and someone has to be the odd man out.


Patrick from Pass Christian, Miss., writes: Why don't you have the Saints as the No. 1 team in the NFL?

Mike Sando: If they keep playing like this, I might have no choice. That was a very impressive performance against the Giants. The Saints have a tougher schedule than the Colts over the next couple of games. That could help them move past Indy, assuming the Saints keep winning. I was close to making the change this week.


Shane from Dayton, Ohio, writes: I don't understand your logic on the MVP? How does Brady having one good game against a crappy 0-5 team land him No. 4 in MVP talk? It takes more than one game. I say his defense did just as much. Matt Ryan is having a much better year as well. A bit one sided as usual in your post!!

Mike Sando: Brady didn't even play that great in Week 3 and his team still beat Matt Ryan's team by 16 points. Brady threw the only touchdown pass in that game. I like Ryan, too. We'll find out whether Brady's showing suggests he's hitting stride. The snowy weather did make Brady's performance tougher to grade.


Matt from Athens, Texas, writes: How can you rate the Cowboys 20 from 17 when they didn't even play? The Cowboys have only lost to Denver and the Giants, who both have top-notch records. You can say what you want about the teams they've beaten, but they almost beat the teams they lost to. I think after a few more weeks, you will have to get away from your bias and admit they're better than you thought. We'll see. If I am right, I expect a retraction.

Mike Sando: It's easy for a team to rise or fall without playing. That sort of thing happens all the time with statistical rankings. The other teams' performances change relative to the idle team's static rankings. I think the Cowboys are a decent team. They could be anywhere from, say, 15 to 20 and I wouldn't have a problem with it.

Mike Sando's MVP Watch

October, 21, 2009
10/21/09
1:09
PM ET
Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando

Matt Schaub and Joe Flacco missed the MVP Watch cut this week despite impressive performances in Week 6.

Their teams have .500 records and that gave me an out when trying to find spots for other deserving players.
Rank 'Em: MVP Candidates
How do you size up the NFL MVP race? The Vikings, Saints, and Broncos both remained undefeated last week, primarily due to big-time games from their MVP candidates. Who is the best player in the NFL?
Cast your vote


The top three this week -- Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Brett Favre -- were easy choices. They've been the key players for undefeated teams, with Favre making significantly more plays down the field in recent weeks.

Tom Brady is arguably too high at No. 4. I'll be disappointed if the "Hatriots" out there don't call me on it, but six touchdown passes in one week seemed to serve notice that Brady could be back.

The list features only one defensive player, another point of contention in past weeks. I've tried to make the MVP Watch list realistic. Quarterbacks and running backs tend to win the award.

That said, Denver's Elvis Dumervil returned to the list after a one-week absence. He's up to 10 sacks, putting him on pace for nearly 27.

1. PEYTON MANNING
QB | Indianapolis Colts (Last Week: 1)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
133 181 1,645 73.5 9.09 80 12 4 2 114.1
A bye week to prepare for the Rams? Some things in life just aren't fair.

2. DREW BREES
QB | New Orleans Saints (Last Week: 4)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
110 159 1,400 69.2 8.81 58 13 2 4 118.4
If your defense has a weakness in coverage, Brees is going to find it.

3. BRETT FAVRE
QB | Minnesota Vikings (Last Week: 2)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
124 178 1,347 69.7 7.57 63 12 2 14 109.5
Favre has averaged 9.3 yards per attempt in his last three games, up from 6.0 in his first three.

4. TOM BRADY
QB | New England Patriots (Last Week: NR)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
156 241 1,724 64.7 7.15 48 12 2 7 99.0
Six TD passes in one week leave Brady tied with Favre for third in the league.

5. KYLE ORTON
QB | Denver Broncos (Last Week: 7)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
124 194 1,465 63.9 7.55 87 9 1 9 100.1
He's on pace for 24 TDs and three INTs. Those are 1990 Steve DeBerg numbers.

6. ELI MANNING
QB | New York Giants (Last Week: 3)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
101 166 1,390 60.8 8.37 58 11 3 3 102.2
If only he could have faced his own defense instead of the Saints' unit.

7. BEN ROETHLISBERGER
QB | Pittsburgh Steelers (Last Week: 6)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
150 207 1,887 72.5 9.12 52 10 6 16 104.5
No. 1 in yards per attempt (9.1 to Peyton's 9.09) and one of two QBs completing 70 percent of his passes.

8. ELVIS DUMERVIL
DE | Denver Broncos (Last Week: NR)
2009 TACKLES MISC.
TOT SOLO AST SACK STF STFY FF BK
23 22 1 10.0 0 0 2 0
At least 2.0 sacks in four of six games during a 6-0 start. Not bad.

9. JAY CUTLER
QB | Chicago Bears (Last Week: 5)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
110 172 1,201 64.0 6.98 68 10 7 10 86.9
I considered moving Matt Schaub into this spot, but Cutler's Bears have a winning record.

10. ADRIAN PETERSON
RB | Minnesota Vikings (Last Week: 10)
2009 RUSHING 2009 RECEIVING
ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD
121 624 5.2 64 7 14 85 6.1 18 0
Second only to Chris Johnson in total yards per game among non-QBs.

Mike Sando's MVP Watch

October, 14, 2009
10/14/09
12:00
PM ET

Posted by ESPN.com's Mike Sando


Listing Kyle Orton as a potential MVP candidate once would have seemed about as plausible as the Broncos opening 5-0 with victories over the Cowboys and Patriots.

Orton makes his MVP Watch debut -- at the expense of Tom Brady, no less -- because we're far enough into the season for results to matter more than reputations.

The Bears castoff has seven touchdown passes, one interception and that 5-0 starting record. His predecessor, fellow MVP Watch member Jay Cutler, was 17-20 as the Broncos' starter, never winning more than half of his starts in a season. Orton has now won 26 of 38 regular-season starts for a career winning percentage (.684) exceeding not only Cutler's but also John Elway's (.644).

To make Orton comfortable, MVP Watch welcomes fellow 2005 Bears draft class alum Cedric Benson, the NFL's leading rusher for a 4-1 team, to the list. There wasn't room for Mark Bradley, chosen by the Bears between selections of Orton and Benson, although the Kansas City receiver does have as many touchdown receptions as Randy Moss this season.

1. PEYTON MANNING
QB | Indianapolis Colts (Last Week: 1)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
133 181 1,645 73.5 9.09 80 12 4 2 114.1
Manning has earned a week off and he'll get one with the Colts' bye week, followed by a date with the Rams.

2. BRETT FAVRE
QB | Minnesota Vikings (Last Week: 2)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
103 149 1,069 69.1 7.17 47 9 2 11 104.1
Passer rating jumps from 101.7 against standard pressure to 109.8 against added pressure. Blitz at your peril.

3. ELI MANNING
QB | New York Giants (Last Week: 7)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
87 135 1,212 64.4 8.98 55 10 2 2 111.7
Only his brother is averaging more yards per attempt (9.1 to 9.0) this season and Eli is gaining.

4. DREW BREES
QB | New Orleans Saints (Last Week: 3)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
87 129 1,031 67.4 7.99 58 9 2 4 108.4
Can move into the second spot on this list with a victory over the Giants in Week 6.

5. JAY CUTLER
QB | Chicago Bears (Last Week: 5)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
83 129 901 64.3 6.98 68 8 5 8 89.3
It's a good thing he's playing well; otherwise he'd be hearing about Kyle Orton and the Broncos.

6. BEN ROETHLISBERGER
QB | Pittsburgh Steelers (Last Week: NR)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
127 172 1,470 73.8 8.55 51 8 5 13 102.6
Apologies to "Big Ben" for leaving him off the list last week. He leads the league in completion percentage.

7. KYLE ORTON
QB | Denver Broncos (Last Week: NR)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
104 165 1,236 63.0 7.49 87 7 1 8 97.4
Ranks eighth in passing yards, but no stat can approach that 5-0 record. Now 26-12 as an NFL starter.

8. MATT RYAN
QB | Atlanta Falcons (Last Week: NR)
2009 PASSING
CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
82 123 977 66.7 7.94 90 7 2 2 102.9
One of eight NFL quarterbacks with a passer rating in triple digits this season.

9. CEDRIC BENSON
RB | Cincinnati Bengals (Last Week: NR)
2009 RUSHING 2009 RECEIVING
ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD
111 487 4.4 28 3 8 65 8.1 19 0
The Bengals needed representation here. Benson leads the league in rushing yards.

10. ADRIAN PETERSON
RB | Minnesota Vikings (Last Week: 4)
2009 RUSHING 2009 RECEIVING
ATT YDS AVG LNG TD REC YDS AVG LNG TD
99 481 4.9 64 7 10 62 6.2 18 0
Six yards behind Benson and due to take over a game while focus is on Favre.
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