NFC West: NFL draft
First rounds first: Cruising toward Canton
February, 9, 2012
Feb 9
4:52
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Andy from Des Moines, Iowa asks whether Pro Football Hall of Famers were disproportionately early draft choices.
Mike Sando: Yes, that is definitely the case. The Hall of Fame lists them by round. I also track this information. By my count, 143 of 188 drafted Hall of Famers were chosen in the first three rounds. That is 76.1 percent. That includes 94 first-round selections, 29 second-rounders and 20 third-rounders.
No players drafted after 1995 have been enshrined to this point.
Curtis Martin, named as part of the 2012 class, was a third-round choice in 1995. The previous six drafts have produced eight Hall of Famers, and all eight were first-round choices: Marshall Faulk, Willie Roaf, Cortez Kennedy, Emmitt Smith, Troy Aikman, Barry Sanders, Derrick Thomas and Deion Sanders.
Later-round picks fared better long ago, when the draft had many more rounds. The NFL went from 17 to 12 rounds in 1977, then to eight in 1993 and seven the following year.
The chart below shows round-by-round distribution for drafted Hall of Famers since the 1983 class produced six Hall of Famers in the first round, the most for any first round.
Players drafted in first rounds tend to have more talent. They also tend to get every opportunity to succeed. The combination of those factors explains why more of them have found their way to Canton, in my view.
Mike Sando: Yes, that is definitely the case. The Hall of Fame lists them by round. I also track this information. By my count, 143 of 188 drafted Hall of Famers were chosen in the first three rounds. That is 76.1 percent. That includes 94 first-round selections, 29 second-rounders and 20 third-rounders.
No players drafted after 1995 have been enshrined to this point.
Curtis Martin, named as part of the 2012 class, was a third-round choice in 1995. The previous six drafts have produced eight Hall of Famers, and all eight were first-round choices: Marshall Faulk, Willie Roaf, Cortez Kennedy, Emmitt Smith, Troy Aikman, Barry Sanders, Derrick Thomas and Deion Sanders.
Later-round picks fared better long ago, when the draft had many more rounds. The NFL went from 17 to 12 rounds in 1977, then to eight in 1993 and seven the following year.
The chart below shows round-by-round distribution for drafted Hall of Famers since the 1983 class produced six Hall of Famers in the first round, the most for any first round.
Players drafted in first rounds tend to have more talent. They also tend to get every opportunity to succeed. The combination of those factors explains why more of them have found their way to Canton, in my view.
2012 Kiper mock 1.0: Cardinals thoughts
January, 18, 2012
Jan 18
1:16
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Mel Kiper's first mock draft 
for 2012 provides the foundation for discussing how NFC West teams might proceed this offseason.
I'll continue with a look at Kiper's plans for the Arizona Cardinals, who hold the 13th choice.
13. Arizona Cardinals: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
Kiper's give: The Cardinals need to mend the offensive line -- they haven't drafted an offensive lineman before the fifth round since 2007 -- and Martin is an athletic, powerful left tackle who can help upgrade this unit immediately.
Sando's take: Left tackle Levi Brown could return at a reduced rate, but the Cardinals still need young depth on their offensive line. They have had the oldest backup offensive linemen in the league recently. That has advantages; experienced players such as Jeremy Bridges and Deuce Lutui can come off the bench without compromising the line in any way. Coaches don't have to sweat over developing young players, which takes a significant time commitment. The trade-off, however, is that the line has very little potential to grow into anything better than it is right now. Using a first-round pick for a tackle would make sense for the Cardinals. I would also endorse using the choice for pass-rush help.
for 2012 provides the foundation for discussing how NFC West teams might proceed this offseason.
I'll continue with a look at Kiper's plans for the Arizona Cardinals, who hold the 13th choice.
13. Arizona Cardinals: Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford
Kiper's give: The Cardinals need to mend the offensive line -- they haven't drafted an offensive lineman before the fifth round since 2007 -- and Martin is an athletic, powerful left tackle who can help upgrade this unit immediately.
Sando's take: Left tackle Levi Brown could return at a reduced rate, but the Cardinals still need young depth on their offensive line. They have had the oldest backup offensive linemen in the league recently. That has advantages; experienced players such as Jeremy Bridges and Deuce Lutui can come off the bench without compromising the line in any way. Coaches don't have to sweat over developing young players, which takes a significant time commitment. The trade-off, however, is that the line has very little potential to grow into anything better than it is right now. Using a first-round pick for a tackle would make sense for the Cardinals. I would also endorse using the choice for pass-rush help.
Mel Kiper's first mock draft for 2012 provides the foundation for discussing how NFC West teams might proceed this offseason.
I'll run through these for each NFC West team, beginning at the bottom of the first round and working forward. I'll start with a look at Kiper's plans for the San Francisco 49ers, currently projected by Kiper to pick at No. 31 (they could pick slightly earlier or later based on how the postseason plays out).
31. San Francisco 49ers: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
Kiper's give: The 49ers got much better production out of the offense this season, but I still see a need for a big target on the outside, something Braylon Edwards wasn't able to provide. Jeffery is an absolute beast, a guy who plays at more than 230 pounds and easily could top 6-foot-4 when he measures out.
Sando's take: Upgrading at wide receiver makes sense for the 49ers. The team used the 10th pick of the 2009 draft on Michael Crabtree. Otherwise, the 49ers have invested very little draft capital in the position recently. They used sixth-round picks for Ronald Johnson (2011), Kyle Williams (2010) and Josh Morgan (2008). Before that, they used third-rounders for Jason Hill (2007) and Brandon Williams (2006). Those are the only receivers San Francisco has chosen in the last six drafts. Under a best-case scenario, the 49ers would re-sign Morgan, who is out for the season with an injury. They would also upgrade the position through the draft.
for 2012 provides the foundation for discussing how NFC West teams might proceed this offseason.
I'll run through these for each NFC West team, beginning at the bottom of the first round and working forward. I'll start with a look at Kiper's plans for the San Francisco 49ers, currently projected by Kiper to pick at No. 31 (they could pick slightly earlier or later based on how the postseason plays out).
31. San Francisco 49ers: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina
Kiper's give: The 49ers got much better production out of the offense this season, but I still see a need for a big target on the outside, something Braylon Edwards wasn't able to provide. Jeffery is an absolute beast, a guy who plays at more than 230 pounds and easily could top 6-foot-4 when he measures out.
Sando's take: Upgrading at wide receiver makes sense for the 49ers. The team used the 10th pick of the 2009 draft on Michael Crabtree. Otherwise, the 49ers have invested very little draft capital in the position recently. They used sixth-round picks for Ronald Johnson (2011), Kyle Williams (2010) and Josh Morgan (2008). Before that, they used third-rounders for Jason Hill (2007) and Brandon Williams (2006). Those are the only receivers San Francisco has chosen in the last six drafts. Under a best-case scenario, the 49ers would re-sign Morgan, who is out for the season with an injury. They would also upgrade the position through the draft.
49ers, Ravens both built through draft
November, 22, 2011
11/22/11
11:58
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Two of the NFL's more home-grown teams face one another when the San Francisco 49ers visit the Baltimore Ravens in Week 12.
The 49ers had 36 of their own draft choices on their 53-man roster and injured reserve list heading into Week 11, according to the rosters I maintain for every team in the league. The 49ers' opponent Thursday, Baltimore, has 31 such players. Both teams rank among the NFL leaders in that category.
The St. Louis Rams are tied for last with only 20 such players.
Holding onto one's draft choices does not ensure success, obviously. Some teams without very many of their own choices are doing just fine. The goal, of course, should be to build through the draft. The teams ranking among the leaders in this category are either winning this season or have won quite a bit in recent years.
The 49ers had 36 of their own draft choices on their 53-man roster and injured reserve list heading into Week 11, according to the rosters I maintain for every team in the league. The 49ers' opponent Thursday, Baltimore, has 31 such players. Both teams rank among the NFL leaders in that category.
The St. Louis Rams are tied for last with only 20 such players.
Holding onto one's draft choices does not ensure success, obviously. Some teams without very many of their own choices are doing just fine. The goal, of course, should be to build through the draft. The teams ranking among the leaders in this category are either winning this season or have won quite a bit in recent years.
Quarterbacks will always reign at the top
March, 2, 2011
3/02/11
2:07
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Fun question/point from Mark via my Facebook wall: Positional selection in the draft seems to be driven in part by a given position's franchise value. Defensive tackle, for example, is often considered for a Top 5 selection, as are quarterback, defensive end, etc. Defensive tackle has a franchise tag value of what, $12.5 million?
This seems to be a guiding tenet in determining what players hit the draft lottery and those that don't, like guard, center, cornerback, safety, etc. That may be justifiable since salaries, in theory, follow valuations around the NFL, team by team.
Will a rookie salary cap change the draft to a more best-player-available design and make it feasible that the later positions someday might go No. 1 overall?
Mike Sando: I do not expect changes in valuation. We could, however, see more teams trying to trade into the top spots. We might also see fewer teams willing to trade out of those spots.
Teams will always value quarterbacks more than they value other positions. They already pay a premium for quarterbacks in the draft, and that doesn't stop teams from spending. Also, it's not like anyone has forced teams to pay what they have recently paid the top picks. The money teams have paid to these players reflects how much teams value them. So, from that standpoint, the way teams value certain positions will lead them to favor those positions anyway.
If the NFL and its players agreed to cap salaries for draft choices, it might be easier to justify taking, say, a linebacker -- think Aaron Curry -- over another position. A team would not be paying such a premium for a non-premium position. But it might also be smarter for teams to target the higher-valued positions at lower prices, allowing them to more comfortably lock in a starter at a premium position.
The chart shows the positional distribution by team for the last 20 players drafted first overall. There isn't a linebacker, defensive back, tight end or specialist among the group.
This seems to be a guiding tenet in determining what players hit the draft lottery and those that don't, like guard, center, cornerback, safety, etc. That may be justifiable since salaries, in theory, follow valuations around the NFL, team by team.
Will a rookie salary cap change the draft to a more best-player-available design and make it feasible that the later positions someday might go No. 1 overall?
Mike Sando: I do not expect changes in valuation. We could, however, see more teams trying to trade into the top spots. We might also see fewer teams willing to trade out of those spots.
Teams will always value quarterbacks more than they value other positions. They already pay a premium for quarterbacks in the draft, and that doesn't stop teams from spending. Also, it's not like anyone has forced teams to pay what they have recently paid the top picks. The money teams have paid to these players reflects how much teams value them. So, from that standpoint, the way teams value certain positions will lead them to favor those positions anyway.
If the NFL and its players agreed to cap salaries for draft choices, it might be easier to justify taking, say, a linebacker -- think Aaron Curry -- over another position. A team would not be paying such a premium for a non-premium position. But it might also be smarter for teams to target the higher-valued positions at lower prices, allowing them to more comfortably lock in a starter at a premium position.
The chart shows the positional distribution by team for the last 20 players drafted first overall. There isn't a linebacker, defensive back, tight end or specialist among the group.
Draft hindsight: Aaron Rodgers and beyond
January, 31, 2011
1/31/11
12:40
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
US PresswireGreen Bay's Aaron Rodgers, Clay Matthews and Donald Driver are all playing in Super Bowl XLV, but how might they have fit into the NFC West's draft plans?A victory for Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl 45 would only sanction additional mutilation of this rotting equine carcass.
Some criticism is justified, obviously, but with Rodgers and key Packers scheduled to make their Super Bowl media debuts Monday afternoon, another line of thinking occurred to me. The 49ers weren't the only ones to bypass Rodgers and other key players in this Super Bowl. Why should they absorb such a disproportionate amount of the blame?
The Green Bay players making Super Bowl media appearances Monday -- Rodgers, Donald Driver, A.J. Hawk, Greg Jennings, Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson -- all qualify for analysis and reflection.
Let's take a look at them through NFC West lenses, beginning in chronological order:
1998 Draft: Charles Woodson, CB, Michigan
Round: First (fourth overall, by Oakland)
NFC West spin: The Cardinals passed over Woodson to select defensive end Andre Wadsworth third overall. The decision seemed defensible at the time. Wadsworth was a freakish talent at a premium position, but chronic knee injuries prevented him from approaching his potential. Wadsworth underwent microfracture knee surgery after only his third NFL season. He never played again, despite a 2007 comeback attempt.
First-round selections in the division:
- Cardinals (third overall): Wadsworth, DE, Florida State
- Rams (sixth overall): Grant Wistrom, DE, Nebraska
- Seahawks (15th overall): Anthony Simmons, LB, Clemson
- 49ers (28th overall): R.W. McQuarters, CB, Oklahoma State
Round: Seventh (213th overall, by Green Bay)
NFC West spin: Good for the Packers. They found a steal in the seventh round. Driver developed into a full-time starter in 2002, his fourth season. He has 698 career receptions. Driver reflects well on the Packers, but not negatively on anyone in the NFC West.
Seventh-round selections in the division (Seahawks did not have a pick):
- 49ers (234th overall): Kory Minor, OLB, Notre Dame
- Cardinals (239th overall): Chris Greisen, QB, Northwest Missouri
- Rams (252nd overall): Rodney Williams, P, Georgia Tech
Round: First (24th overall, by Green Bay)
NFC West spin: Only the Seahawks, who held the 26th choice that year, escape second-guessing for this one. To be fair, however, the Rams' Marc Bulger was coming off a breakout 2004 season in which he had thrown 21 touchdown passes while leading St. Louis to the playoffs. There was no reason for the Rams to target a quarterback in the 2005 first round. Rodgers might have wilted in St. Louis while the organization crumbled around him (a fate that might have awaited him in San Francisco as well). The Cardinals could have used a young quarterback to build around, but they signed Kurt Warner to a free-agent contract that offseason. Warner went 2-8 as a starter in 2005, but the Cardinals eventually went to the Super Bowl with him under center. Warner even edged Rodgers in the playoffs following the 2009 season.
First-round selections in the division:
- 49ers (first overall): Alex Smith, QB, Utah
- Cardinals (eighth overall): Antrel Rolle, DB, Miami
- Rams (19th overall): Alex Barron, T, Florida State
- Seahawks (26th overall): Chris Spencer, C, Mississippi
Round: First (fifth overall, by Green Bay)
NFC West spin: The 49ers in particular were monitoring this choice closely. They were picking sixth overall that year and trying to find weapons for their second-year quarterback. Tight end Vernon Davis, chosen sixth overall, is becoming a perennial Pro Bowl choice. Hawk was an all-rookie selection, but he has not played well enough overall to cause much second-guessing in NFC West circles. The Cardinals ultimately whiffed on a quarterback that year, but no one is telling them they should have drafted Hawk instead.
First-round selections in the division:
- 49ers (sixth overall): Davis, TE, Maryland
- Cardinals (10th overall): Matt Leinart, QB, USC
- Rams (15th overall): Tye Hill, CB, Clemson
- 49ers (22nd overall): Manny Lawson, OLB, North Carolina State
- Seahawks (31st overall): Kelly Jennings, CB, Miami
Round: Second (52nd overall, by Green Bay)
NFC West spin: The Cardinals and Rams passed on Jennings in the second round, but that was understandable. Both teams were already strong at receiver. Looking back, however, the Rams certainly would have gone in another direction. They whiffed on tight end Joe Klopfenstein six spots before the Packers took Jennings.
Second-round selections in the division (49ers traded their pick):
- Cardinals (41st overall): Deuce Lutui, G, USC
- Rams (46th overall): Klopfenstein, TE, Colorado
- Seahawks (63rd overall): Darryl Tapp, DE, Virginia Tech
Round: First (26th overall, to Green Bay)
NFC West spin: This draft hurts. Surely the Seahawks and Rams could have put Matthews' pass-rush ability to use even if he didn't fit their schemes precisely at the time. Both teams passed on him. Worse, the Packers used an additional 2009 first-round choice, this one ninth overall, for another key contributor, B.J. Raji.
First-round selections in the division:
- Rams (second overall): Jason Smith, T, Baylor
- Seahawks (fourth overall): Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
- 49ers (10th overall): Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
- Cardinals (31st overall): Beanie Wells, RB, Ohio State
Hope you enjoyed the exercise. I'll be heading to the Pittsburgh Steelers' media session in the not-too-distant future, with plans to check back at the next opportunity.
Mailbag: How to approach QBs in draft
January, 29, 2011
1/29/11
10:10
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Jon from New York writes: One thing you've mentioned a few times on the blog recently is that the vast majority of elite QBs were first-round selections. This year's QB class seems a little weak, however, and I keep hearing that next year's class is supposed to be excellent.
With that in mind, would it be wise for the 49ers to draft a second-tier quarterback -- Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, etc. -- in a middle round instead of a first-round guy, and then take a first-round guy next year if it looks like it's not working out?
Mike Sando: I do not think the 49ers, or any team, can make draft decisions based on what might be available to them a year later. The 49ers cannot know how early they will draft in 2012, and they cannot know whether they will like any of the quarterbacks available to them at that time. Jake Locker's shifting stock comes to mind.
Until the 49ers have a legitimate long-term starter, they should draft a quarterback in the first round every time they value one as a first-round selection.
NFL teams tend to draft quarterbacks in the first round more frequently than they take them in the second or third rounds. That helps explain why so many more good ones -- and not-so-good ones -- were first-round choices.
Teams have drafted 143 quarterbacks since 2000. They drafted 28 in the first round, 12 in the second round, 14 in the third round, 12 in the fourth round and 77 in the final three rounds.
Sixteen of the 143 have earned Pro Bowl honors. This includes nine of the 28 first-round choices, but only three of the 38 quarterbacks drafted in the second, third or fourth rounds. None of the 23 fifth-round choices has earned a Pro Bowl berth. Three of 30 sixth-rounders and one of 24 seventh-rounders have earned the honors.
Alex from Spokane writes: Hey Mike, love the blog. I just read an article saying Logan Mankins may become a free agent. If that's the case what do you think the chances are of the Seahawks making a play for him?
Mike Sando: Seahawks general manager John Schneider comes from the Ted Thompson school of personnel. Thompson has never valued guards as much as other teams have valued guards. Thompson has also proven relatively averse to free agency.
That doesn't exclude Seattle from pursuing a player such as Mankins. Schneider has described himself as more apt than Thompson to use free agency. We have already seen Schneider and coach Pete Carroll move aggressively to remake the roster. We have also seen the Seahawks struggle to field a sturdy offensive line. Adding Mankins would finally fill the void left when Steve Hutchinson departed following the 2006 season.
So, in the end, I'm saying there's a chance until we learn otherwise.
Travis from Cave Creek, Ariz., writes: I have been a Rams fan all of my life I am a football freak. Ever since that Week 17 loss to Seattle, I have been pondering the best possible offseason for the Rams.
It starts in free agency by signing Nnamdi Asomugha to help out a Rams secondary that has been allowing way too many big plays. Then we could go sign a big-time wide reciever to help out Sam Bradford. I'm thinking Vincent Jackson or Santonio Holmes, if they indeed become free agents.
Lastly, in the draft, the Rams need to help out Steven Jackson, and I cannot think of a better way to do that than drafting Mark Ingram at No. 14. Mel Kiper has him going to the Dolphins at No. 15, so there is a great chance of him falling to 14.
How plausible is all of this? And if indeed most or all of these things happened, where do you think the Rams would be going into next year?
Mike Sando: The Rams would firm up their status as NFC West favorites if those things fell into place. And that is one thing I love about the offseason; it dares us to dream.
I think it's questionable as to whether one of those things will happen, let alone all three. Oakland showed a willingness to pay huge money to Asomugha a couple years ago. Why wouldn't the Raiders do it again? Al Davis loves cornerbacks. His team has made strides. Asomugha is a terrific player and team-oriented guy. I would think the Raiders would be the favorites to keep Asomugha.
On the receiver front, yes, I could see the Rams making an aggressive play to acquire one of the better free agents at the position. Going that route before the draft would take off the pressure to find a top-tier talent from the college ranks -- always a risky proposition, especially at receiver after first few overall choices.
At running back, I just do not think the Rams will have an easy time justifying using a first-round selection for the position. They have too many needs at other positions. Jackson should be able to get them through the next couple seasons. The team would not, ideally, use a first-round pick for a running back right now.
Howie from Jacksonville, Fla., writes: The Jaguars reportedly denied the Rams permission to interview offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. This struck me as odd. How often does one team deny access to another team's coaches? Isn't that slap in the face to the requesting team? Why would the Jaguars do this? How does Koetter feel about being blocked for possible advancement with another team?
Mike Sando: Teams must allow coaches to interview for head coaching vacancies. In this case, Koetter was already an offensive coordinator. Why should the Jaguars let him interview for a lateral move at the potential expense of their own organization?
My feel from speaking to assistant coaches over the years is that teams regularly deny permission, and that we do not know about it most of the time.
Randy from Peoria, Ariz., writes: Hello Mike. Arizona needs a quality quarterback to assist for the near term (two years), quality on-field personnel at various positions, a quality defensive coordinator, quality offensive coordinators, good draft choices for future development, players who will not demand inordinate income, fans who will not abandon the team while it searches for a way back to the win column, a moneyed partner for a Bidwill family business, new uniforms (my son designed one I'd like to promote) and the need to suspend reality while we hope the previous nine point will be addressed.
Mike Sando: The Cardinals fans I encounter seem relatively unmoved by the success the team enjoyed during its first three seasons under Ken Whisenhunt. They often seem pessimistic, as if conditioned over the years to expect bad fortune to be lurking right behind success. Getting the right quarterback would make some of those other perceived needs seem a lot easier to overcome.
Buddy from Highland, Ill., writes: Hey Mike, I'm just gonna ask a question that's been rollin' through my mind since the Rams announced Josh McDaniels' hiring as offensive coordinator and Dick Curl's retirement as quarterbacks coach. How big of a possibility is it that Kurt Warner can return to St. Louis to replace Curl?
I know it depends on what the coaches want and what's going on in Warner's life, but I think this could be a great hire for the team, and not to mention how much the fans would love it.
Mike Sando: No chance, in my view. Warner doesn't want to trade his new lifestyle for the grind and pressure associated with coaching. McDaniels would have no incentive to hire someone with no coaching experience, no experience in his offense and a profile large enough to overshadow the rest of the staff. Mainly, though, I do not think Warner would want to take his life in that direction, at all.
With that in mind, would it be wise for the 49ers to draft a second-tier quarterback -- Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, etc. -- in a middle round instead of a first-round guy, and then take a first-round guy next year if it looks like it's not working out?
Mike Sando: I do not think the 49ers, or any team, can make draft decisions based on what might be available to them a year later. The 49ers cannot know how early they will draft in 2012, and they cannot know whether they will like any of the quarterbacks available to them at that time. Jake Locker's shifting stock comes to mind.
Until the 49ers have a legitimate long-term starter, they should draft a quarterback in the first round every time they value one as a first-round selection.
NFL teams tend to draft quarterbacks in the first round more frequently than they take them in the second or third rounds. That helps explain why so many more good ones -- and not-so-good ones -- were first-round choices.
Teams have drafted 143 quarterbacks since 2000. They drafted 28 in the first round, 12 in the second round, 14 in the third round, 12 in the fourth round and 77 in the final three rounds.
Sixteen of the 143 have earned Pro Bowl honors. This includes nine of the 28 first-round choices, but only three of the 38 quarterbacks drafted in the second, third or fourth rounds. None of the 23 fifth-round choices has earned a Pro Bowl berth. Three of 30 sixth-rounders and one of 24 seventh-rounders have earned the honors.
Alex from Spokane writes: Hey Mike, love the blog. I just read an article saying Logan Mankins may become a free agent. If that's the case what do you think the chances are of the Seahawks making a play for him?
Mike Sando: Seahawks general manager John Schneider comes from the Ted Thompson school of personnel. Thompson has never valued guards as much as other teams have valued guards. Thompson has also proven relatively averse to free agency.
That doesn't exclude Seattle from pursuing a player such as Mankins. Schneider has described himself as more apt than Thompson to use free agency. We have already seen Schneider and coach Pete Carroll move aggressively to remake the roster. We have also seen the Seahawks struggle to field a sturdy offensive line. Adding Mankins would finally fill the void left when Steve Hutchinson departed following the 2006 season.
So, in the end, I'm saying there's a chance until we learn otherwise.
Travis from Cave Creek, Ariz., writes: I have been a Rams fan all of my life I am a football freak. Ever since that Week 17 loss to Seattle, I have been pondering the best possible offseason for the Rams.
It starts in free agency by signing Nnamdi Asomugha to help out a Rams secondary that has been allowing way too many big plays. Then we could go sign a big-time wide reciever to help out Sam Bradford. I'm thinking Vincent Jackson or Santonio Holmes, if they indeed become free agents.
Lastly, in the draft, the Rams need to help out Steven Jackson, and I cannot think of a better way to do that than drafting Mark Ingram at No. 14. Mel Kiper has him going to the Dolphins at No. 15, so there is a great chance of him falling to 14.
How plausible is all of this? And if indeed most or all of these things happened, where do you think the Rams would be going into next year?
Mike Sando: The Rams would firm up their status as NFC West favorites if those things fell into place. And that is one thing I love about the offseason; it dares us to dream.
I think it's questionable as to whether one of those things will happen, let alone all three. Oakland showed a willingness to pay huge money to Asomugha a couple years ago. Why wouldn't the Raiders do it again? Al Davis loves cornerbacks. His team has made strides. Asomugha is a terrific player and team-oriented guy. I would think the Raiders would be the favorites to keep Asomugha.
On the receiver front, yes, I could see the Rams making an aggressive play to acquire one of the better free agents at the position. Going that route before the draft would take off the pressure to find a top-tier talent from the college ranks -- always a risky proposition, especially at receiver after first few overall choices.
At running back, I just do not think the Rams will have an easy time justifying using a first-round selection for the position. They have too many needs at other positions. Jackson should be able to get them through the next couple seasons. The team would not, ideally, use a first-round pick for a running back right now.
Howie from Jacksonville, Fla., writes: The Jaguars reportedly denied the Rams permission to interview offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. This struck me as odd. How often does one team deny access to another team's coaches? Isn't that slap in the face to the requesting team? Why would the Jaguars do this? How does Koetter feel about being blocked for possible advancement with another team?
Mike Sando: Teams must allow coaches to interview for head coaching vacancies. In this case, Koetter was already an offensive coordinator. Why should the Jaguars let him interview for a lateral move at the potential expense of their own organization?
My feel from speaking to assistant coaches over the years is that teams regularly deny permission, and that we do not know about it most of the time.
Randy from Peoria, Ariz., writes: Hello Mike. Arizona needs a quality quarterback to assist for the near term (two years), quality on-field personnel at various positions, a quality defensive coordinator, quality offensive coordinators, good draft choices for future development, players who will not demand inordinate income, fans who will not abandon the team while it searches for a way back to the win column, a moneyed partner for a Bidwill family business, new uniforms (my son designed one I'd like to promote) and the need to suspend reality while we hope the previous nine point will be addressed.
Mike Sando: The Cardinals fans I encounter seem relatively unmoved by the success the team enjoyed during its first three seasons under Ken Whisenhunt. They often seem pessimistic, as if conditioned over the years to expect bad fortune to be lurking right behind success. Getting the right quarterback would make some of those other perceived needs seem a lot easier to overcome.
Buddy from Highland, Ill., writes: Hey Mike, I'm just gonna ask a question that's been rollin' through my mind since the Rams announced Josh McDaniels' hiring as offensive coordinator and Dick Curl's retirement as quarterbacks coach. How big of a possibility is it that Kurt Warner can return to St. Louis to replace Curl?
I know it depends on what the coaches want and what's going on in Warner's life, but I think this could be a great hire for the team, and not to mention how much the fans would love it.
Mike Sando: No chance, in my view. Warner doesn't want to trade his new lifestyle for the grind and pressure associated with coaching. McDaniels would have no incentive to hire someone with no coaching experience, no experience in his offense and a profile large enough to overshadow the rest of the staff. Mainly, though, I do not think Warner would want to take his life in that direction, at all.
2005 re-draft gives 49ers you know who
January, 25, 2011
1/25/11
12:37
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
A few thoughts on Mel Kiper's 2005 NFL re-draft, covering the first round and available to Insider subscribers:
1. San Francisco 49ers
Actual pick: Alex Smith, QB, Utah
Kiper re-draft pick: Aaron Rodgers
My thoughts: The question, of course, is to what extent Rodgers would have transcended the bad luck and dysfunction that framed Smith's career with the 49ers. Rodgers benefited from having a few years to learn the pro game before taking over for Brett Favre. Rodgers walked into a far more talented offense than the one that helped drag down Smith early in his career. The disparity between Smith and Rodgers has to do with more than circumstances, however. Rodgers has been better across the board. I think his personality would have helped him fare better than Smith has fared. Matt Cassel, the second quarterback selected in Kiper's re-draft, lacks the physical skills Rodgers possesses. I think he might have become another Smith if the 49ers had selected him. The 49ers would have been just fine selecting DeMarcus Ware, the second player chosen in Kiper's re-draft.
8. Arizona Cardinals
Actual pick: Antrel Rolle, CB, Miami
Kiper re-draft pick: Jay Ratliff, NT, Auburn.
My thoughts: Rolle converted to safety and earned Pro Bowl recognition before leaving Arizona in free agency. He wasn't good enough over the course of his time with the Cardinals to justify the early choice, however. Ratliff would have upgraded the Cardinals' defense. Arizona wouldn't have leaned so heavily on veteran nose tackle Bryan Robinson, who has played too many snaps. I might have sent Frank Gore to the Cardinals on a re-draft, however (Gore went 17th in Kiper's version). Taking away Gore from the 49ers and sending him to Arizona would have headed off the Edgerrin James signing while weakening a division rival. Having Gore and Kurt Warner in the same backfield would have upgraded an offense that already had outstanding weapons in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.
19. St. Louis Rams
Actual pick: Alex Barron, T, Florida St.
Kiper re-draft pick: Logan Mankins, G, Fresno St.
My thoughts: Mankins would have provided needed toughness and leadership. Barron's tenure became a yellow blur thanks to all the penalties he incurred. Darren Sproles was available in Kiper's re-draft and he would have given the Rams an scary one-two punch at running back, but building along the offensive line would have made more sense. Mankins became a Pro Bowl guard. The Rams wound up selecting guards Richie Incognito and Claude Terrell in this draft. Incognito lacked self-control and flamed out of St. Louis. Off-field issues drove Terrell out of the league. Selecting Mankins early would have averted the mistake on Barron while sending the team in another direction in the later rounds.
26. Seattle Seahawks
Actual pick: Chris Spencer, C, Mississippi
Kiper re-draft pick: Barrett Ruud, LB, Nebraska
My thoughts: The Seahawks got more immediate help at linebacker by selecting Lofa Tatupu in the second round and Leroy Hill in the third. Seattle would not have reached the Super Bowl following the 2005 season without Tatupu bringing together the defense, in my view. Ruud did not start as a rookie. Tatupu went 15th overall to Kansas City in Kiper's re-draft. Some of the other players I would have sent to Seattle in the 26th spot were also gone in the re-draft. Given how Super Bowl XL turned out, the Seahawks could have used another safety. The team liked safety-turned-linebacker Thomas Davis that year. Nick Collins and Oshiomogho Atogwe were gone on a re-draft.
1. San Francisco 49ers
Actual pick: Alex Smith, QB, Utah
Kiper re-draft pick: Aaron Rodgers
My thoughts: The question, of course, is to what extent Rodgers would have transcended the bad luck and dysfunction that framed Smith's career with the 49ers. Rodgers benefited from having a few years to learn the pro game before taking over for Brett Favre. Rodgers walked into a far more talented offense than the one that helped drag down Smith early in his career. The disparity between Smith and Rodgers has to do with more than circumstances, however. Rodgers has been better across the board. I think his personality would have helped him fare better than Smith has fared. Matt Cassel, the second quarterback selected in Kiper's re-draft, lacks the physical skills Rodgers possesses. I think he might have become another Smith if the 49ers had selected him. The 49ers would have been just fine selecting DeMarcus Ware, the second player chosen in Kiper's re-draft.
8. Arizona Cardinals
Actual pick: Antrel Rolle, CB, Miami
Kiper re-draft pick: Jay Ratliff, NT, Auburn.
My thoughts: Rolle converted to safety and earned Pro Bowl recognition before leaving Arizona in free agency. He wasn't good enough over the course of his time with the Cardinals to justify the early choice, however. Ratliff would have upgraded the Cardinals' defense. Arizona wouldn't have leaned so heavily on veteran nose tackle Bryan Robinson, who has played too many snaps. I might have sent Frank Gore to the Cardinals on a re-draft, however (Gore went 17th in Kiper's version). Taking away Gore from the 49ers and sending him to Arizona would have headed off the Edgerrin James signing while weakening a division rival. Having Gore and Kurt Warner in the same backfield would have upgraded an offense that already had outstanding weapons in Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin.
19. St. Louis Rams
Actual pick: Alex Barron, T, Florida St.
Kiper re-draft pick: Logan Mankins, G, Fresno St.
My thoughts: Mankins would have provided needed toughness and leadership. Barron's tenure became a yellow blur thanks to all the penalties he incurred. Darren Sproles was available in Kiper's re-draft and he would have given the Rams an scary one-two punch at running back, but building along the offensive line would have made more sense. Mankins became a Pro Bowl guard. The Rams wound up selecting guards Richie Incognito and Claude Terrell in this draft. Incognito lacked self-control and flamed out of St. Louis. Off-field issues drove Terrell out of the league. Selecting Mankins early would have averted the mistake on Barron while sending the team in another direction in the later rounds.
26. Seattle Seahawks
Actual pick: Chris Spencer, C, Mississippi
Kiper re-draft pick: Barrett Ruud, LB, Nebraska
My thoughts: The Seahawks got more immediate help at linebacker by selecting Lofa Tatupu in the second round and Leroy Hill in the third. Seattle would not have reached the Super Bowl following the 2005 season without Tatupu bringing together the defense, in my view. Ruud did not start as a rookie. Tatupu went 15th overall to Kansas City in Kiper's re-draft. Some of the other players I would have sent to Seattle in the 26th spot were also gone in the re-draft. Given how Super Bowl XL turned out, the Seahawks could have used another safety. The team liked safety-turned-linebacker Thomas Davis that year. Nick Collins and Oshiomogho Atogwe were gone on a re-draft.
Super Bowl traits: Home-grown rosters
January, 24, 2011
1/24/11
10:46
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Pittsburgh and Green Bay rank among the NFL leaders in retaining their own draft choices.
My unofficial counts show the Steelers and Packers among four teams with more than 35 of their own draft choices on the 53-man roster or injured reserve. Carolina and Indianapolis are the others.
The Panthers are in a different category as a rebuilding team attempting to save money.
San Francisco (33), Arizona (27), Seattle (26) and St. Louis (24) are at various points on the spectrum. Cleveland has only 17 such players on its roster or on injured reserve, easily a league low.
In looking at rosters for the Steelers and Packers, I'm seeing only two NFC West draft choices: Green Bay's Ryan Pickett, a first-round choice by St. Louis in 2001; and Pittsburgh's Arnaz Battle, a third-round choice by San Francisco in 2003.
Update: Former Rams draft choice Brandon Chillar is on injured reserve with Green Bay (thanks, Paul).
My unofficial counts show the Steelers and Packers among four teams with more than 35 of their own draft choices on the 53-man roster or injured reserve. Carolina and Indianapolis are the others.
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San Francisco (33), Arizona (27), Seattle (26) and St. Louis (24) are at various points on the spectrum. Cleveland has only 17 such players on its roster or on injured reserve, easily a league low.
In looking at rosters for the Steelers and Packers, I'm seeing only two NFC West draft choices: Green Bay's Ryan Pickett, a first-round choice by St. Louis in 2001; and Pittsburgh's Arnaz Battle, a third-round choice by San Francisco in 2003.
Update: Former Rams draft choice Brandon Chillar is on injured reserve with Green Bay (thanks, Paul).
Mailbag: First-round NFL draft options
January, 23, 2011
1/23/11
1:28
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Ed from Lake Arrowhead, Calif., writes: Hi Mike, I was just wondering who you think the Rams should select with their first-round draft choice.
I know everyone is pointing to a receiver such as Julio Jones, but with injured players coming back next year and Josh McDaniels taking over the offense, I would not mind them going in other directions.
A solid running back to back up Steven Jackson would be nice. A weakside linebacker to compliment James Laurinaitis, a shut-down corner and even another defensive tackle who can stuff the run and put pressure on the quarterback, since the guys we have are getting up there in age.
Mike Sando: You have a great feel for what the Rams need. They're picking late enough in the round -- 14th overall -- to affect their options quite a bit. In recent seasons, the Rams went into the draft knowing they could select the top-rated player at one of only a couple positions. That let them make up their minds more definitively.
This year, the teams picking ahead of the Rams will dictate those options to a much greater degree. Seattle held the 14th overall choice last year. The Seahawks thought Philadelphia was going to draft Earl Thomas, so they were ecstatic when Thomas remained available to them at No. 14. That made the decision easy.
Something similar could happen for the Rams this season. They could sit back at No. 14 and see which player falls further than they expected. They have enough needs to feel good about taking a best-player-available strategy into the draft.
They have the franchise quarterback. There's less urgency to target any one position early in draft.
Alex from Green Bay writes: Let's say San Francisco ends up renegotiating Nate Clements' contract in the next handful of weeks. What do you see his future as?
I see the Niners addressing the corner spot somehow in the offseason, whether it be the draft or free agency. Where does that leave Nate? He is a 31-year-old corner and clearly on the decline. Would he have any value on the trade market? If San Francisco were to try to trade for Kevin Kolb, could Clements be thrown in the mix there? Also, could he possibly move to one of the safety spots as well?
Mike Sando: The 49ers knew when they signed Clements that he would never see the end of that contract. They've reached the point where it's time to renegotiate or let him go. Clements has no real trade value because the acquiring team would be acquiring his contract, and if the 49ers didn't like that contract, why would another team like it?
Remember, too, that teams cannot trade players without a new labor agreement.
At no point have the 49ers shown any inclination they planned to move Clements to safety. They have a new coaching staff now, so it's tough to say whether the team sees that as a long-term possibility, but either way, Clements needs a new contract.
Clements holds some of the cards here. He should just wait out the 49ers, let them release him and then start fresh somewhere he's wanted -- whether that be San Francisco or elsewhere.
Elias from Dayton, Ohio writes: Mike, Gus Bradley has been the Seahawks' defensive coordinator the past for years and they've been terrible. When is this guy going to get fired? The Seahawks fired the wrong coordinator.
Mike Sando: The Seahawks have had defensive-minded head coaches the past two seasons. The responsibility on the defensive side ends with those guys. Bradley has adjusted the defense to reflect the head coaches' vision.
Is Bradley doing a bad job independent of that vision? Hard to say. But we all know the Seahawks have had personnel issues on that side of the ball.
I thought the scheming part was generally a positive this past season. The Red Bryant experiment worked while Bryant's health held up. The Chris Clemons experiment was a smashing success. If I were the Seahawks, I would keep building the personnel on that side of the ball, with Pete Carroll's vision in mind.
Roger from Peoria, Ariz., writes: What are the chances of Dick LeBeau becoming the defensive coordinator for the Cardinals? Is his contract up? He and Ken Whisenhunt are good friends.
Mike Sando: That would make no sense for the Steelers or LeBeau, in my view, regardless of what LeBeau's contract might say (and I do not have a copy on file). The expectation for now is that Whisenhunt is waiting for the Steelers' season to end so he can make a run at linebackers coach Keith Butler or secondary coach Ray Horton.
The Steelers have reportedly promised Butler the coordinating job once LeBeau retires. I suspect that will be enough to keep Butler in Pittsburgh even if the Steelers gave the Cardinals permission to speak with him.
That is another dynamic to consider. NFL rules require teams to let their assistant coaches interview for head coaching jobs. Rules do not require teams to let their assistants interview for jobs as assistants elsewhere.
Jacksonville recent denied St. Louis permission to speak with Jaguars offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter regarding a lateral move. Even if Whisenhunt wants to speak with Butler or another candidate, he cannot force teams to grant permission.
Update: ESPN's Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen say LeBeau's contract is expiring. They mention Arizona as a potential option. Again, this makes no sense for Pittsburgh or LeBeau unless the assurances the Steelers made to Butler require quick promotion.
I know everyone is pointing to a receiver such as Julio Jones, but with injured players coming back next year and Josh McDaniels taking over the offense, I would not mind them going in other directions.
A solid running back to back up Steven Jackson would be nice. A weakside linebacker to compliment James Laurinaitis, a shut-down corner and even another defensive tackle who can stuff the run and put pressure on the quarterback, since the guys we have are getting up there in age.
Mike Sando: You have a great feel for what the Rams need. They're picking late enough in the round -- 14th overall -- to affect their options quite a bit. In recent seasons, the Rams went into the draft knowing they could select the top-rated player at one of only a couple positions. That let them make up their minds more definitively.
This year, the teams picking ahead of the Rams will dictate those options to a much greater degree. Seattle held the 14th overall choice last year. The Seahawks thought Philadelphia was going to draft Earl Thomas, so they were ecstatic when Thomas remained available to them at No. 14. That made the decision easy.
Something similar could happen for the Rams this season. They could sit back at No. 14 and see which player falls further than they expected. They have enough needs to feel good about taking a best-player-available strategy into the draft.
They have the franchise quarterback. There's less urgency to target any one position early in draft.
Alex from Green Bay writes: Let's say San Francisco ends up renegotiating Nate Clements' contract in the next handful of weeks. What do you see his future as?
I see the Niners addressing the corner spot somehow in the offseason, whether it be the draft or free agency. Where does that leave Nate? He is a 31-year-old corner and clearly on the decline. Would he have any value on the trade market? If San Francisco were to try to trade for Kevin Kolb, could Clements be thrown in the mix there? Also, could he possibly move to one of the safety spots as well?
Mike Sando: The 49ers knew when they signed Clements that he would never see the end of that contract. They've reached the point where it's time to renegotiate or let him go. Clements has no real trade value because the acquiring team would be acquiring his contract, and if the 49ers didn't like that contract, why would another team like it?
Remember, too, that teams cannot trade players without a new labor agreement.
At no point have the 49ers shown any inclination they planned to move Clements to safety. They have a new coaching staff now, so it's tough to say whether the team sees that as a long-term possibility, but either way, Clements needs a new contract.
Clements holds some of the cards here. He should just wait out the 49ers, let them release him and then start fresh somewhere he's wanted -- whether that be San Francisco or elsewhere.
Elias from Dayton, Ohio writes: Mike, Gus Bradley has been the Seahawks' defensive coordinator the past for years and they've been terrible. When is this guy going to get fired? The Seahawks fired the wrong coordinator.
Mike Sando: The Seahawks have had defensive-minded head coaches the past two seasons. The responsibility on the defensive side ends with those guys. Bradley has adjusted the defense to reflect the head coaches' vision.
Is Bradley doing a bad job independent of that vision? Hard to say. But we all know the Seahawks have had personnel issues on that side of the ball.
I thought the scheming part was generally a positive this past season. The Red Bryant experiment worked while Bryant's health held up. The Chris Clemons experiment was a smashing success. If I were the Seahawks, I would keep building the personnel on that side of the ball, with Pete Carroll's vision in mind.
Roger from Peoria, Ariz., writes: What are the chances of Dick LeBeau becoming the defensive coordinator for the Cardinals? Is his contract up? He and Ken Whisenhunt are good friends.
Mike Sando: That would make no sense for the Steelers or LeBeau, in my view, regardless of what LeBeau's contract might say (and I do not have a copy on file). The expectation for now is that Whisenhunt is waiting for the Steelers' season to end so he can make a run at linebackers coach Keith Butler or secondary coach Ray Horton.
The Steelers have reportedly promised Butler the coordinating job once LeBeau retires. I suspect that will be enough to keep Butler in Pittsburgh even if the Steelers gave the Cardinals permission to speak with him.
That is another dynamic to consider. NFL rules require teams to let their assistant coaches interview for head coaching jobs. Rules do not require teams to let their assistants interview for jobs as assistants elsewhere.
Jacksonville recent denied St. Louis permission to speak with Jaguars offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter regarding a lateral move. Even if Whisenhunt wants to speak with Butler or another candidate, he cannot force teams to grant permission.
Update: ESPN's Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen say LeBeau's contract is expiring. They mention Arizona as a potential option. Again, this makes no sense for Pittsburgh or LeBeau unless the assurances the Steelers made to Butler require quick promotion.
The Seattle Seahawks' defeat in the NFC divisional round locks in their place in the 2011 NFL draft order.
The chart shows where teams stand in the order, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Only the final four spots remain in flux.
The order is based on regular-season record and strength of schedule without regard for where teams might actually pick following trades or other transactions.
The chart shows where teams stand in the order, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Only the final four spots remain in flux.
The order is based on regular-season record and strength of schedule without regard for where teams might actually pick following trades or other transactions.
Mailbag: Bradford, Fitzgerald and more
January, 15, 2011
1/15/11
11:00
AM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Blake from St. Louis writes: In a vote of 617 NFL players and head coaches conducted by the Sporting News, Ndamukong Suh was named the NFL's top rookie. Suh received 260 votes. Sam Bradford received 221 votes. Devin McCourty received 49 votes.
How could Bradford possibly lose? He broke multiple rookie records. How many records did Suh break? Should I be worried about Bradford not winning the rookie of the year award from the NFL?
Mike Sando: Suh was more dominant and Bradford was more valuable. Suh was better at the one thing he could control -- his level of play. Bradford's value was greater through the nature of his position. Playing quarterback carries more demands than playing defensive tackle.
I would favor Bradford in this debate largely because the Rams went from 6-42 over three seasons without him to 7-9 in their first season with Bradford under center. Bradford played every offensive snap. He made players around him better, which is tough to do from that position.
Matt Ryan, Vince Young and Ben Roethlisberger won the award over the past six seasons. Ryan and Roethlisberger went to the playoffs as rookie starters. The Titans finished 8-8 with Young starting 13 games. Roethlisberger went 13-0 as a rookie starter for a good team. The chart shows where Bradford's rookie season ranks compared to rookie seasons by those players.
Bradford still has a good chance at winning the award. The voters will presumably take into account what Bradford meant to the Rams. However, I think you could have felt a lot better about Bradford's chances if the Rams had beaten Seattle on national TV in Week 17 and advanced to the playoffs. That probably would have cemented Bradford as the clear choice.
Ben from Seattle writes: At this point in the season, it is hard not to question whether the Josh Wilson trade was a good idea or not. The Seahawks play a lot of defensive backs, Kelly Jennings is still struggling, Walter Thurmond is promising (but is still not of starting caliber), Roy Lewis is on injured reserve and we could use some game-changers on defense.
Wilson seems to be doing well for Baltimore. One thing that would make things more palatable for the Seahawk fan is what we get in return for Wilson. I recall that the pick was a fifth-rounder, but was conditional on playing time. Do you have any idea whether that fifth rounder will become a fourth? Thanks. Love the blog.
Mike Sando: Thanks, Ben. Seattle will receive a fifth-round choice in return for Wilson. The pick would have upgraded to a fourth-rounder if Wilson had started at least 10 games. He wound up starting nine -- the final eight games, plus a game against Cleveland in Week 3.
Did the Ravens make sure Wilson started fewer than 10 games? That is difficult to know. The Ravens benched Fabian Washington at halftime of their Nov. 7 victory against the Miami Dolphins. Wilson had three passes defensed and one interception in relief. Wilson then started the remaining eight regular-season games, giving him nine starts for the regular season.
I questioned the Wilson trade at the time because I thought the team lacked depth at the position and might wind up needing Wilson in the return game as well. Leon Washington's return to health meant Seattle never needed Wilson on returns. In retrospect, I do not think the Seahawks badly missed Wilson this season. Lewis played pretty well for them and became a leader.
Jeff from Raleigh writes: What is your opinion on the potential of Golden Tate for next year and the years beyond that? I know a lot of times it is very difficult for a rookie wide receiver to learn the intricacies of the position. And, I read on one of the Seahawks outlets that during his inactive time of the season, Tate started to look within and began to act a little more like a professional in his approach to studying his teammates and film.
Do you think it will be likely that one of Seattle's receivers would get traded or released this offseason, thus allowing Tate to move up the charts? Also, from speaking with him and the rest of the team, does it seem like he is maturing a little since the preseason and early weeks of the regular season? Thanks for all of your input throughout the year and travel safe during your coverage.
Mike Sando: Thanks, Jeff. I don't think Tate is going to move up the depth chart based on any trades. Seattle has recently signed Mike Williams and Ben Obomanu to three-year extensions. Those deals should have gotten Tate's attention. Both players justified their playing time.
Tate is obviously gifted. I was watching him field punts after practice this week and can share a story reflecting his pure athleticism and the athleticism of pro athletes in general. Tate was fielding punts from a "Jugs" machine. He took one ball and threw it back toward the machine on a trajectory similar to the one it followed on the simulated punt. The ball traveled about 50 yards and hit the machine precisely at the launch point between the two rotating discs. I just shook my head in amazement.
The Seahawks are not going to hand anything to Tate. The light bulb will have to come on for him. I think we saw it flicker at times during the season. He will need a full offseason of renewed dedication and professionalism to get the playing time he wants.
Peter from Arizona writes: Larry Fitzgerald CAN be traded. Media everywhere reports that he cannot. In 2009, when he restructured his deal, the no-trade clause was dropped!
Mike Sando: You are partially correct. I had forgotten about this aspect of the renegotiation, which took place in August 2009. Thanks for the reminder.
The no-trade clause remained in effect for the 2009 and 2010 contract years. No-trade clauses were removed from the 2011 and voidable 2012 years of the contract. The deal still prevents the Cardinals from naming Fitzgerald their franchise or transition player should those designations remain available to NFL teams once Fitzgerald's deal voids or otherwise ends.
This means the Cardinals could, indeed, attempt to trade Fitzgerald during the 2011 season. However, any team agreeing to give up anything of consequence in return for Fitzgerald would first want to work out a long-term deal with him. That would effectively give Fitzgerald veto power over trades.
But the possibility remains for the Cardinals to seek value for Fitzgerald if they cannot work out a long-term deal with him. Thanks for the heads-up.
Update: The no-trade clause remains in place for 2011. The previously referenced report was subsequently corrected. Information on file with the players' association is apparently source for the confusion. An agent told me the information mentions the no-trade clauses for the 2009 and 2010 seasons only even though the clause applies to 2011 as well. So, all the previous items about a no-trade clause were indeed correct. Sorry about that, Peter.
Jim from San Francisco writes: Hi Mike, love the blog. Do you think cutting Matt Leinart effectively cost the Cardinals any shot at the playoffs in what turned out to be a weak NFC West season? Also, are any QB-needy teams looking at him as an option? How did his star fade so quickly? Thanks.
Mike Sando: It's possible the Cardinals might have won a couple more games with Leinart as their quarterback this season. It's possible that would have been enough to get them into the playoffs, provided those additional victories came against Seattle and San Francisco. Overall, however, I do not think Leinart would have made the Cardinals a contending team.
The question I have is whether coach Ken Whisenhunt hastily subtracted a player from his roster without having better options. To use an analogy, it looks like Whisenhunt decided to sell his beater of a car without realizing he would be walking to work in the future. I also wonder if he is headed down a similar path after firing defensive coordinator Bill Davis. Did Whisenhunt sell another car without lining up alternate means of transportation?
Ian from Washington, D.C., writes: Hey Sando, would love to get your take on the rest of the 49ers' offseason "plan". Mainly, do you think that either Ryan Mallett, Cam Newton or Jake Locker might slip to the 49ers in round two? That way, they could grab Nebraska corner Prince Amakamara or LSU's Patrick Peterson (if they are lucky) in round one, and sign Donovan McNabb for now. Man, that sure is my dream situation.
Mike Sando: I thought the 49ers should have acquired Donovan McNabb last offseason and I suspect they would have won the NFC West had they gone that route, even though McNabb didn't do much with a rebuilding Washington Redskins team. It's becoming clearer, however, that McNabb might not be as attractive an option as he once appeared to be.
Getting some sort of veteran quarterback for the 2011 season would upgrade the roster, however. I would rather have McNabb as my one-year rental than Alex Smith or David Carr.
The college quarterbacks you listed would presumably be gone by the second round. It seems as though Locker's stock has already tumbled quite a bit since last season, putting him in position to potentially rise, if anything. He's a tremendous athlete. Does he throw accurately enough? That is a fair question.
I suspect the combine process will affect Mallett and Newton in particular as NFL teams get a better feel for their personalities and backgrounds. Mallett has an arrest for public intoxication on his record. Newton's experience at Auburn raised questions about NCAA rules violations. What more is there to know about these guys?
Alex from San Francisco writes: Jim Harbaugh runs a version of the West Coast offense. Assuming the 49ers will bring in one veteran at minimum (even if they do draft a QB), what other teams in the NFL currently run the West Coast and what potential QBs could the 49ers pick up in free agency or via trade? I'm holding out for Jeff Garcia personally.
Mike Sando: Garcia is 40 years old and probably not the guy you want on your team as a backup. He wants to start and that is why he is playing in the UFL instead of finishing out his career on an NFL roster.
Green Bay, Minnesota, St. Louis and Philadephia run offenses with West Coast roots. Cleveland will run one now that Pat Shurmur is head coach.
Mike Shanahan favors a version featuring zone blocking schemes and requiring more mobility from the quarterback. Washington, Houston and Seattle have head coaches and/or offensive coordinators with roots in this system. The Packers' scheme also favors zone blocking.
Harbaugh has favored a power running game setting up play-action passes. I'm not yet sure what kind of quarterback he'll pursue.
How could Bradford possibly lose? He broke multiple rookie records. How many records did Suh break? Should I be worried about Bradford not winning the rookie of the year award from the NFL?
Mike Sando: Suh was more dominant and Bradford was more valuable. Suh was better at the one thing he could control -- his level of play. Bradford's value was greater through the nature of his position. Playing quarterback carries more demands than playing defensive tackle.
I would favor Bradford in this debate largely because the Rams went from 6-42 over three seasons without him to 7-9 in their first season with Bradford under center. Bradford played every offensive snap. He made players around him better, which is tough to do from that position.
Matt Ryan, Vince Young and Ben Roethlisberger won the award over the past six seasons. Ryan and Roethlisberger went to the playoffs as rookie starters. The Titans finished 8-8 with Young starting 13 games. Roethlisberger went 13-0 as a rookie starter for a good team. The chart shows where Bradford's rookie season ranks compared to rookie seasons by those players.
Bradford still has a good chance at winning the award. The voters will presumably take into account what Bradford meant to the Rams. However, I think you could have felt a lot better about Bradford's chances if the Rams had beaten Seattle on national TV in Week 17 and advanced to the playoffs. That probably would have cemented Bradford as the clear choice.
Ben from Seattle writes: At this point in the season, it is hard not to question whether the Josh Wilson trade was a good idea or not. The Seahawks play a lot of defensive backs, Kelly Jennings is still struggling, Walter Thurmond is promising (but is still not of starting caliber), Roy Lewis is on injured reserve and we could use some game-changers on defense.
Wilson seems to be doing well for Baltimore. One thing that would make things more palatable for the Seahawk fan is what we get in return for Wilson. I recall that the pick was a fifth-rounder, but was conditional on playing time. Do you have any idea whether that fifth rounder will become a fourth? Thanks. Love the blog.
Mike Sando: Thanks, Ben. Seattle will receive a fifth-round choice in return for Wilson. The pick would have upgraded to a fourth-rounder if Wilson had started at least 10 games. He wound up starting nine -- the final eight games, plus a game against Cleveland in Week 3.
Did the Ravens make sure Wilson started fewer than 10 games? That is difficult to know. The Ravens benched Fabian Washington at halftime of their Nov. 7 victory against the Miami Dolphins. Wilson had three passes defensed and one interception in relief. Wilson then started the remaining eight regular-season games, giving him nine starts for the regular season.
I questioned the Wilson trade at the time because I thought the team lacked depth at the position and might wind up needing Wilson in the return game as well. Leon Washington's return to health meant Seattle never needed Wilson on returns. In retrospect, I do not think the Seahawks badly missed Wilson this season. Lewis played pretty well for them and became a leader.
Jeff from Raleigh writes: What is your opinion on the potential of Golden Tate for next year and the years beyond that? I know a lot of times it is very difficult for a rookie wide receiver to learn the intricacies of the position. And, I read on one of the Seahawks outlets that during his inactive time of the season, Tate started to look within and began to act a little more like a professional in his approach to studying his teammates and film.
Do you think it will be likely that one of Seattle's receivers would get traded or released this offseason, thus allowing Tate to move up the charts? Also, from speaking with him and the rest of the team, does it seem like he is maturing a little since the preseason and early weeks of the regular season? Thanks for all of your input throughout the year and travel safe during your coverage.
Mike Sando: Thanks, Jeff. I don't think Tate is going to move up the depth chart based on any trades. Seattle has recently signed Mike Williams and Ben Obomanu to three-year extensions. Those deals should have gotten Tate's attention. Both players justified their playing time.
Tate is obviously gifted. I was watching him field punts after practice this week and can share a story reflecting his pure athleticism and the athleticism of pro athletes in general. Tate was fielding punts from a "Jugs" machine. He took one ball and threw it back toward the machine on a trajectory similar to the one it followed on the simulated punt. The ball traveled about 50 yards and hit the machine precisely at the launch point between the two rotating discs. I just shook my head in amazement.
The Seahawks are not going to hand anything to Tate. The light bulb will have to come on for him. I think we saw it flicker at times during the season. He will need a full offseason of renewed dedication and professionalism to get the playing time he wants.
Peter from Arizona writes: Larry Fitzgerald CAN be traded. Media everywhere reports that he cannot. In 2009, when he restructured his deal, the no-trade clause was dropped!
Mike Sando: You are partially correct. I had forgotten about this aspect of the renegotiation, which took place in August 2009. Thanks for the reminder.
The no-trade clause remained in effect for the 2009 and 2010 contract years. No-trade clauses were removed from the 2011 and voidable 2012 years of the contract. The deal still prevents the Cardinals from naming Fitzgerald their franchise or transition player should those designations remain available to NFL teams once Fitzgerald's deal voids or otherwise ends.
This means the Cardinals could, indeed, attempt to trade Fitzgerald during the 2011 season. However, any team agreeing to give up anything of consequence in return for Fitzgerald would first want to work out a long-term deal with him. That would effectively give Fitzgerald veto power over trades.
But the possibility remains for the Cardinals to seek value for Fitzgerald if they cannot work out a long-term deal with him. Thanks for the heads-up.
Update: The no-trade clause remains in place for 2011. The previously referenced report was subsequently corrected. Information on file with the players' association is apparently source for the confusion. An agent told me the information mentions the no-trade clauses for the 2009 and 2010 seasons only even though the clause applies to 2011 as well. So, all the previous items about a no-trade clause were indeed correct. Sorry about that, Peter.
Jim from San Francisco writes: Hi Mike, love the blog. Do you think cutting Matt Leinart effectively cost the Cardinals any shot at the playoffs in what turned out to be a weak NFC West season? Also, are any QB-needy teams looking at him as an option? How did his star fade so quickly? Thanks.
Mike Sando: It's possible the Cardinals might have won a couple more games with Leinart as their quarterback this season. It's possible that would have been enough to get them into the playoffs, provided those additional victories came against Seattle and San Francisco. Overall, however, I do not think Leinart would have made the Cardinals a contending team.
The question I have is whether coach Ken Whisenhunt hastily subtracted a player from his roster without having better options. To use an analogy, it looks like Whisenhunt decided to sell his beater of a car without realizing he would be walking to work in the future. I also wonder if he is headed down a similar path after firing defensive coordinator Bill Davis. Did Whisenhunt sell another car without lining up alternate means of transportation?
Ian from Washington, D.C., writes: Hey Sando, would love to get your take on the rest of the 49ers' offseason "plan". Mainly, do you think that either Ryan Mallett, Cam Newton or Jake Locker might slip to the 49ers in round two? That way, they could grab Nebraska corner Prince Amakamara or LSU's Patrick Peterson (if they are lucky) in round one, and sign Donovan McNabb for now. Man, that sure is my dream situation.
Mike Sando: I thought the 49ers should have acquired Donovan McNabb last offseason and I suspect they would have won the NFC West had they gone that route, even though McNabb didn't do much with a rebuilding Washington Redskins team. It's becoming clearer, however, that McNabb might not be as attractive an option as he once appeared to be.
Getting some sort of veteran quarterback for the 2011 season would upgrade the roster, however. I would rather have McNabb as my one-year rental than Alex Smith or David Carr.
The college quarterbacks you listed would presumably be gone by the second round. It seems as though Locker's stock has already tumbled quite a bit since last season, putting him in position to potentially rise, if anything. He's a tremendous athlete. Does he throw accurately enough? That is a fair question.
I suspect the combine process will affect Mallett and Newton in particular as NFL teams get a better feel for their personalities and backgrounds. Mallett has an arrest for public intoxication on his record. Newton's experience at Auburn raised questions about NCAA rules violations. What more is there to know about these guys?
Alex from San Francisco writes: Jim Harbaugh runs a version of the West Coast offense. Assuming the 49ers will bring in one veteran at minimum (even if they do draft a QB), what other teams in the NFL currently run the West Coast and what potential QBs could the 49ers pick up in free agency or via trade? I'm holding out for Jeff Garcia personally.
Mike Sando: Garcia is 40 years old and probably not the guy you want on your team as a backup. He wants to start and that is why he is playing in the UFL instead of finishing out his career on an NFL roster.
Green Bay, Minnesota, St. Louis and Philadephia run offenses with West Coast roots. Cleveland will run one now that Pat Shurmur is head coach.
Mike Shanahan favors a version featuring zone blocking schemes and requiring more mobility from the quarterback. Washington, Houston and Seattle have head coaches and/or offensive coordinators with roots in this system. The Packers' scheme also favors zone blocking.
Harbaugh has favored a power running game setting up play-action passes. I'm not yet sure what kind of quarterback he'll pursue.
Seventh-round success: Obomanu re-signs
January, 14, 2011
1/14/11
5:19
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Receiver Ben Obomanu returned to the Seattle Seahawks' wild-card playoff game Saturday after suffering a dislocated shoulder.
If all goes to plan, Obomanu will return for at least three more seasons with the team.
Seattle has announced a three-year extension for Obomanu, who scored four touchdowns and averaged 16.5 yards per catch this season.
The team recently signed fellow receiver Mike Williams to a three-year extension. Both players have taken advantage of opportunities after Seattle released T.J. Houshmandzadeh and traded another veteran wideout, Deion Branch.
Obomanu is one of several seventh-round success stories among Seattle draft choices. Tight end Cameron Morrah (2009) made a key 39-yard reception against New Orleans. Justin Forsett (2008) has played extensively at running back. Several others over the past decade -- Dennis Norman, Josh Brown, Donnie Jones, Steve Vallos and Courtney Greene -- remain active elsewhere despite their last-round status.
If all goes to plan, Obomanu will return for at least three more seasons with the team.
Seattle has announced a three-year extension for Obomanu, who scored four touchdowns and averaged 16.5 yards per catch this season.
The team recently signed fellow receiver Mike Williams to a three-year extension. Both players have taken advantage of opportunities after Seattle released T.J. Houshmandzadeh and traded another veteran wideout, Deion Branch.
Obomanu is one of several seventh-round success stories among Seattle draft choices. Tight end Cameron Morrah (2009) made a key 39-yard reception against New Orleans. Justin Forsett (2008) has played extensively at running back. Several others over the past decade -- Dennis Norman, Josh Brown, Donnie Jones, Steve Vallos and Courtney Greene -- remain active elsewhere despite their last-round status.
NFC West draft position and QB searches
January, 10, 2011
1/10/11
4:59
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
Clinching the NFC West title and winning a playoff game has dropped the Seattle Seahawks from eighth to 25th in the 2011 NFL draft order.
The slide will continue with every additional Seattle victory.
Beating St. Louis and New Orleans over the last two weeks has not filled draft needs, of course. Seattle still needs to identify its long-term quarterback. With that in mind, I've put together two charts showing quarterbacks drafted around where Seattle could have and currently would select.
The first chart shows every quarterback since 1990 drafted between the fifth and 15th overall choices, including six selected between fifth and seventh. Seattle would have been drafting in this general range if St. Louis had won the NFC West.
Arizona (fifth) and San Francisco (seventh) hold picks in this range, so the chart adds context for their choices as well.
Five of the 11 quarterbacks drafted fifth to 15th since 1990 have earned Pro Bowl honors. The three with plus signs next to their career start totals appear likely to start considerably more games in the future.
As the second chart shows, one of the nine quarterbacks drafted 20th through 30th since 1990 has earned Pro Bowl honors. One other, Tim Tebow, remains early enough in his career to qualify as a potential candidate for such honors down the road. Again, plus signs highlight totals likely to increase substantially over time.
Aaron Rodgers, the lone Pro Bowl choice from this group so far, was an exception as the 24th player chosen in the 2005 draft.
NFL teams have drafted 22 quarterbacks among the top four choices since 1990. I'll list them below by overall draft spot.
First overall: Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford, JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, David Carr, Michael Vick, Tim Couch, Peyton Manning, Drew Bledsoe, Jeff George.
Second overall: Donovan McNabb, Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer.
Third overall: Matt Ryan, Vince Young, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, Steve McNair, Heath Shuler.
Fourth overall: Philip Rivers.
The slide will continue with every additional Seattle victory.
Beating St. Louis and New Orleans over the last two weeks has not filled draft needs, of course. Seattle still needs to identify its long-term quarterback. With that in mind, I've put together two charts showing quarterbacks drafted around where Seattle could have and currently would select.
The first chart shows every quarterback since 1990 drafted between the fifth and 15th overall choices, including six selected between fifth and seventh. Seattle would have been drafting in this general range if St. Louis had won the NFC West.
Arizona (fifth) and San Francisco (seventh) hold picks in this range, so the chart adds context for their choices as well.
Five of the 11 quarterbacks drafted fifth to 15th since 1990 have earned Pro Bowl honors. The three with plus signs next to their career start totals appear likely to start considerably more games in the future.
As the second chart shows, one of the nine quarterbacks drafted 20th through 30th since 1990 has earned Pro Bowl honors. One other, Tim Tebow, remains early enough in his career to qualify as a potential candidate for such honors down the road. Again, plus signs highlight totals likely to increase substantially over time.
Aaron Rodgers, the lone Pro Bowl choice from this group so far, was an exception as the 24th player chosen in the 2005 draft.
NFL teams have drafted 22 quarterbacks among the top four choices since 1990. I'll list them below by overall draft spot.
First overall: Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford, JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, David Carr, Michael Vick, Tim Couch, Peyton Manning, Drew Bledsoe, Jeff George.
Second overall: Donovan McNabb, Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer.
Third overall: Matt Ryan, Vince Young, Joey Harrington, Akili Smith, Steve McNair, Heath Shuler.
Fourth overall: Philip Rivers.
49ers-Cardinals loser to draft fourth or fifth
January, 2, 2011
1/02/11
4:12
PM ET
By
Mike Sando | ESPN.com
SEATTLE -- Here's what we know about draft positioning for Arizona and San Francisco heading into their Week 17 game at Candlestick Park:
Pretty simple. More as info becomes available.
- Carolina will pick first overall.
- Buffalo and Cincinnati will have fewer victories than the Cardinals or 49ers. They will draft ahead of the Cardinals-49ers loser.
- The Cardinals-49ers loser picks fourth if Denver wins in Week 17.
- The Cardinals-49ers loser picks fifth if Denver loses in Week 17.
Pretty simple. More as info becomes available.
ABOUT THIS BLOG
Mike Sando
Sando joined ESPN.com in 2007 after nine seasons covering the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma (Wash.) News Tribune. He lives in the Seattle-Tacoma area with his wife and two sons.
